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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Surface Penetrating Radar Simulations for Jupiter's Icy Moons

The icy moons of Jupiter (Europa, Callisto, and Ganymede) are of similar overall composition but show different surface features as a result of different sub-surface processes. Furthermore, each of these moons could have a liquid ocean of water buried underneath the icy crust, but their depth can only be speculated. For Europa, estimates put the thickness of the ice shell anywhere between 2-30 km, with'a few models predicting up to 100 km. Much of the uncertainties are due to the largely unknown temperature gradients and levels of water impurities across different surface layers. One of the most important geological processes is the possible transportation of heat by ice convection. If the ice is convecting, then an upper limit of about 20 km is set for the depth of the ocean underneath. Convection leads to a sharp increase in temperature followed by a thick region of nearly constant temperature. If ice is not convecting, then an exponentially increasing temperature profile is expected. The crust is thought to be a mixture of ice and rock, and although the exact percentage of rock is not known, it is expected to be low. Additionally, the ice crust could contain salt, similar to sea ice on Earth. The exact amount of salt and how that amount changes with depth is also unknown. In preparation for the Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO) mission, we performed simulations for a surface-penetrating radar investigating signatures for different possible surface and sub-surface structures of these moons in order to estimate the applicability of using radar with a frequency range between 1 and 50 MHz. This includes simulations of power requirements, attenuation losses, layer resolutions for scenarios with and without the presence of a liquid ocean underneath the ice, cases of convecting and non-convecting ice, different impurities within the ice, and different surface roughnesses.

Markus, Thorsten↗
DOE OSTI2024

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regional environmental controllers influence continental scale soil carbon stocks and future carbon dynamics

Abstract Understanding the influence of environmental factors on soil organic carbon (SOC) is critical for quantifying and reducing the uncertainty in carbon climate feedback projections under changing environmental conditions. We explored the effect of climatic variables, land cover types, topographic attributes, soil types and bedrock geology on SOC stocks of top 1 m depth across conterminous United States (US) ecoregions. Using 4559 soil profile observations and high-resolution data of environmental factors, we identified dominant environmental controllers of SOC stocks in 21 US ecoregions using geographically weighted regression. We used projected climatic data of SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios from GFDL-ESM 4 Earth System Model of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 to predict SOC stock changes across continental US between 2030 and 2100. Both baseline and predicted changes in SOC stocks were compared with SOC stocks represented in GFDL-ESM4 projections. Among 56 environmental predictors, we found 12 as dominant controllers across all ecoregions. The adjusted geospatial model with the 12 environmental controllers showed an R 2 of 0.48 in testing dataset. Higher precipitation and lower temperatures were associated with higher levels of SOC stocks in majority of ecoregions. Changes in land cover types (vegetation properties) was important in drier ecosystem as North American deserts, whereas soil types and topography were more important in American prairies. Wetlands of the Everglades was highly sensitive to projected temperature changes. The SOC stocks did not change under SSP126 until 2100, however SOC stocks decreased up to 21% under SSP585. Our results, based on environmental controllers of SOC stocks, help to predict impacts of changing environmental conditions on SOC stocks more reliably and may reduce uncertainties found in both, geospatial and Earth System Models. In addition, the description of different environmental controllers for US ecoregions can help to describe the scope and importance of global and local models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Induced seismicity potential based on probabilistic geomechanics for the San Juan Basin CarbonSAFE project

Although geologic carbon sequestration projects have yet to induce — or may never induce — a damaging earthquake, experiences from other deep injection industries such as hydraulic fracturing, enhanced geothermal systems, and saltwater disposal suggest that effective quantitative seismic risk assessment is necessary for deep saline carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) projects. One such imminent CCS project is the San Juan Basin CarbonSAFE Phase III program. We use Monte Carlo probabilistic geomechanical analyses combined with observations of the geologic and operational parameters of the San Juan Basin site and suggest that this project is of low-induced seismic risk. The primary analysis is split into four sections. First, we assess the literature for faults and past seismicity, and at least five faulting scenarios are directly relevant. Second, we develop and calibrate an integrated earth model for the project site. Third, we perform Monte Carlo simulations that consider reasonable uncertainties of the geomechanical parameters. Of five tested faulting scenarios, only one presents high Coulomb failure functions, but fourth, we determine the risk to be low based on the combined lack of historical seismicity, the geologic framework of the faulting scenario, and the presence of saltwater injection at the same depth as the proposed supercritical carbon dioxide injection. The most sensitive parameters in the geomechanical calculations are the fault dip and the coefficient of friction. The least sensitive are the fault strike and the orientation of the maximum horizontal principal stress.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Tools and Workflows for Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Geologic Carbon Storage Sites: Progress and Insights from the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on CCS raised the profile of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. CCS is now recognized as a key component of most climate change mitigation scenarios. Since publication of that report the international research, development, and deployment (RD&D) community has advanced key technical aspects, clarified regulatory requirements, explored value chain and infrastructure solutions, and developed incentive paradigms to enable and promote large-scale deployment of CCS. These efforts have included research to better characterize geologic storage resources, to improve injection performance and storage efficiency, to assess and manage subsurface environmental risks, and to advance monitoring technologies to assure system conformance. These efforts have helped to build confidence in the viability of geologic carbon storage (GCS), but stakeholder concerns about long-term risks and liability associated with GCS remain a hurdle to broad acceptance and large-scale deployment of CCS. Since 2010, the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) – a research collaboration between five contributing national laboratories – has worked to establish and demonstrate methods and tools to quantify and manage the subsurface environmental risks associated with GCS, amidst uncertainty. This work supports the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Transport and Storage Program’s goal of advancing safe and secure commercial-scale GCS deployment. To address the technical challenge of simulating the physical response of the GCS site to large-scale CO2 injection, NRAP has adopted an approach that relies on coupling computationally efficient reduced-order and/or data-driven proxy models of important system components (i.e., storage reservoir, sealing caprock, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, overlying groundwater aquifers, and the atmosphere) in integrated assessment framework. That integrated model of the physical system is complemented with fit-for purpose functionality to support site characterization and risk-related decisions. The recently released NRAP Phase II toolset includes the Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) for evaluation of trends in leakage risk and potential impact, tools to support monitoring design optimization (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management – DREAM v3.0 and Passive Seismic Monitoring Tool - PSMT), and tools for state of stress evaluation (State-of-Stress Analysis Tool - SOSAT) and forecasting induced seismicity risk. The NRAP team has also released a pair of reports describing conceptual workflows to incorporate physics-based, quantitative risk assessment into many of the design, planning, operation, and closure decisions for GCS projects. An online catalogue highlights published studies where these tools and methods are demonstrated. In this presentation, the utility of these products to assess risks and address key stakeholder questions will be highlighted through examples, and related insights about the safety and security of geologic carbon storage in qualified storage sites will be discussed. The prospect of rapid, large-scale deployment of GCS technology to aggressively reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires careful consideration of interference between multiple commercial-scale storage projects within a basin. Going forward, NRAP is expanding and adapting site-scale risk quantification tools and methods to enable assessment of risks and inform management decisions for basin-scale deployment. Increasingly, this work will leverage next-generation approaches for surrogate modelling, fast prediction, and advanced visualization enabled by machine learning and artificial intelligence to promote virtual learning, scenario evaluation, and augment risk-based decision making.

quantitative risk assessment, geologic carbon stor↗
NASA NTRS2000

Constraints on Martian Soil Composition as Inferred from Viking XRFS and Pathfinder APXS and IMP Data

With the successful operation of the Alpha Proton X-Ray Spectrometer (APXS) during 1997's Mars Pathfinder (MPF) mission, geochemistry data are now available from three sites on Mars. APXS raw spectra for six soils and five rocks have been converted to compositional abundances. The Viking Lander X-Ray Fluorescence Spectrometer (XRFS) successfully measured elemental abundances of nine soils at Viking 1 and eight soils at Viking 2. Although the three landing sites are located in different parts of Mars, the soils exhibit broad similarities, with an iron-rich chemistry similar to that of palagonite. However, the Pathfinder sods show some significant differences from Viking soils, notably an enrichment in silica and depletion in sulfur. The XRFS samples consisted of near-surface and deep (up to 22 cm) soils acquired by a collector head at the cod of a retractable boom. It was possible to collect and analyze pebbles as large a 2 cm, but only sod, some in the form of consolidated clods, was sampled. In contrast, the APXS measured materials in situ. This resulted in MPF "rock" analyses that probably had a significant dust component and, as explored here, "soil" analyses that may have contained a rocky component We examine several possibilities to explain these differences and other attributes of the APXS and XRFS data sets: 1) The APXS soil measurements actually sampled a mixture of Viking-like soil and small bits of high-silica, low-sulfur rock, 2) The soils were derived from high-silica rocks mixed with a minor component of globally-homogenized dust; these soils are chemically distinct and have a separate geologic history from the Viking soils. 3) The weathering environment was different at the Pathfinder landing site compared to the Viking sites, and 4) Uncertainties in the XRFS and APXS measurements result in reported elemental abundances different than those that are actually present We show that none of the possibilities can be discounted, but that an MPF soil distinct in composition from Viking sods is best supported by the available data.

Bridges, N. T.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geothermal Uncertainty Representation in reV: the Renewable Energy Potential Model

We present a preliminary methodology for including geothermal resource uncertainty into the Renewable Energy Potential model, which estimates potential capacity and costs on a gridded surface at the national scale. The uncertainty outputs characterize the 10th, 50th and 90th percentile for geothermal resources using two energy capacity estimation equations. We then present a method and results that demonstrate how other geologic data layers, which may be indicative of permeability, can be used to inform the mean and standard deviation of the geothermal capacity. We demonstrate how the mean and standard deviation can be defined or partially informed by using collocated regression estimates and estimate errors, respectively . These regression results are from 36 observed geothermal power plants in the Great Basin region and are also used to benchmark the P10-P90 calculations.

exclusions↗
NASA NTRS2002

Reducing uncertainty about carbon dioxide as a climate driver

The lack of an adequate ancient analogue for future climates means that we ultimately must use and trust climate models, evaluated against modern observation and our best geologic records of warm and cold climates of the past. Armed with an elevated confidence in the models, we will then be able to make reliable predictions of the Earth's response to our risky experiment with the climate system.

Climate↗
DOE OSTI2022

NRAP-Open-IAM: Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model

NRAP Open IAM is the latest evolution in a series of quantitative models developed under the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) to address risk assessment, risk management and containment assurance questions of geological carbon storage (GCS). NRAP Open IAM allows a user to define a site specific GCS scenario, characterize important site features, events, and processes (considering uncertainty), couple together reduced order models of various system components to rapidly forecast response to CO 2 injection, and perform stochastic analysis to quantify containment effectiveness, leakage risk, and impact to receptors of concern.

Vasylkivska, Veronika S.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrated geological, economic, and risk assessment of underground hydrogen storage

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is a promising option to buffer variable renewable power and support the hydrogen economy. Yet this technology is early-stage, and key uncertainties remain about how coupled processes such as geochemical and geomechanical impacts affect long-term storage security. In this paper, we seek to integrate the results from a large, multi-scale research program to quantify core feasibility metrics and situate these studies within ongoing efforts. Through this work, we evaluate hydrogen recoverability during storage by assessing diffusive losses, losses to geochemical interactions and their subsequent impact on geomechanical properties, and losses to residual saturation during injection and withdrawal. Molecular and laboratory studies show that lithologic heterogeneity, pore geometry, and mineral surface chemistry govern hydrogen–rock interactions, controlling loss pathways. High-pressure coreflooding is used to estimate relative permeabilities and measure parameters needed for reservoir-scale sensitivity analyses. These core-scale experiments found early hydrogen breakthrough at low saturations driven by capillary and viscous fingering, which limits pore-space utilization at early times, while repeated injection and withdrawal cycles improve deliverability over time. Technoeconomic factors and purity requirements for end uses are also considered as part of our comprehensive feasibility analysis. Finally, we underscore the importance of geophysical monitoring and tailored injection strategies to maintain integrity and efficiency. Together, these results provide a quantitative foundation for safe, scalable deployment of UHS and highlight priorities for future integrated studies.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dislocation theory of steady and transient creep of crystalline solids: Predictions for olivine

In applications critical to the geological, materials, and engineering sciences, deformation occurs at strain rates too small to be accessible experimentally. Instead, extrapolations of empirical relationships are used, leading to epistemic uncertainties in predictions. To address these problems, we construct a theory of the fundamental processes affecting dislocations: storage and recovery. We then validate our theory for olivine deformation. This model explains the empirical relationships among strain rate, applied stress, and dislocation density in disparate laboratory regimes. It predicts the previously unexplained dependence of dislocation density on applied stress in olivine. The predictions of our model for Earth conditions differ from extrapolated empirical relationships. For example, it predicts rapid, transient deformation in the upper mantle, consistent with recent measurements of postseismic creep.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2000

Distribution of Slip at the Northern Sumatran Fault System

We model spatial variations in horizontal displacements of 117 geodetic sites measured during annual surveys in 1989-1996 with the Global Positioning System (GPS) as elastic strain across a locked strike-slip fault to infer the contemporary slip rate, locking depth, and location of the Sumatran fault (SF) in northern Sumatra (1 S-3 N). GPS-derived slip rate estimates increase slightly northward from 23 plus or minus 3 mm/yr at 0.8 deg S to 26 plus or minus 2mm/yr at 2.7 N. They agree with geologic estimates north of the Equator, but at 0.5 S they are about 10 mm/yr higher. Strain appears to be distributed asymmetrically about the fault. South of 2 N, about 5 mm/yr of shear is required within the offshore forearc, west of the fault, to achieve a closer agreement of fault locations inferred from GPS velocities with geologically identified traces of the SF. Locking depth estimates are on the order of 10-20 km. The western branch of the major fault bifurcation near 1 N slips at a rate five times higher than the eastern branch. The two main strands of the fault at the northwestern tip of Sumatra (5.5 N) appear to be nearly free of horizontal strain; significant slip must occur away from the two strands, probably further east at two other geologically active branches. The Banda Aceh embayment is extruded to the northwest at a rate of 5 plus or minus 2 mm/yr. Within the estimated velocity uncertainties of several mm/yr, fault-normal deformation along the SF is insignificant. Almost strain free, the northern part of the back-arc basin is part of a rigid Sunda shelf, while the northern forearc is subjected to 8 plus or minus 5 x 10 (exp -8)/yr of extension nearly parallel to the arc.

Genrich, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Landsat Data Continuity Mission Calibration and Validation

The primary payload for the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) is the Operational Land Imager (OLI), being built by Ball Aerospace and Technologies, under contract to NASA. The OLI has spectral bands similar to the Landsat-7 ETM+, minus the thermal band and with two new bands, a 443 nm band and 1375 nm cirrus detection band. On-board calibration systems include two solar diffusers (routine and pristine), a shutter and three sets of internal lamps (routine, backup and pristine). Being a pushbroom opposed to a whiskbroom design of ETM+, the system poses new challenges for characterization and calibration, chief among them being the large focal plane with 75000+ detectors. A comprehensive characterization and calibration plan is in place for the instrument and the data throughout the mission including Ball, NASA and the United States Geological Survey, which will take over operations of LDCM after on-orbit commissioning. Driving radiometric calibration requirements for OLI data include radiance calibration to 5% uncertainty (1 q); reflectance calibration to 3% uncertainty (1 q) and relative (detector-to-detector) calibration to 0.5% (J (r). Driving geometric calibration requirements for OLI include bandto- band registration of 4.5 meters (90% confidence), absolute geodetic accuracy of 65 meters (90% CE) and relative geodetic accuracy of 25 meters (90% CE). Key spectral, spatial and radiometric characterization of the OLI will occur in thermal vacuum at Ball Aerospace. During commissioning the OLI will be characterized and calibrated using celestial (sun, moon, stars) sources and terrestrial sources. The USGS EROS ground processing system will incorporate an image assessment system similar to Landsat-7 for characterization and calibration. This system will have the added benefit that characterization data will be extracted as part of the normal image data processing, so that the characterization data available will be significantly larger than for Landsat-7 ETM+.

Markham, Brian L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrated hydrogeophysical modelling and data assimilation for geoelectrical leak detection

Time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) measurements provide indirect observations of hydrological processes in the Earth's shallow subsurface at high spatial and temporal resolution. ERT has been used in the past decades to detect leaks and monitor the evolution of associated contaminant plumes. Specifically, inverted resistivity images allow visualization of the dynamic changes in the structure of the plume. However, existing methods do not allow the direct estimation of leak parameters (e.g. leak rate, location, etc.) and their uncertainties. We propose an ensemble-based data assimilation framework that evaluates proposed hydrological models against observed time-lapse ERT measurements without directly inverting for the resistivities. Each proposed hydrological model is run through the parallel coupled hydro-geophysical simulation code PFLOTRAN-E4D to obtain simulated ERT measurements. The ensemble of model proposals is then updated using an iterative ensemble smoother. In this paper, we demonstrate the proposed framework on synthetic and field ERT data from controlled tracer injection experiments. Our results show that the approach allows joint identification of contaminant source location, initial release time, and solute loading from the cross-borehole time-lapse ERT data, alongside with an assessment of uncertainties in these estimates. We demonstrate a reduction in site-wide uncertainty by comparing the prior and posterior plume mass discharges at a selected image plane. This framework is particularly attractive to sites that have previously undergone extensive geological investigation (e.g., nuclear sites). It is well suited to complement ERT imaging and we discuss practical issues in its application to field problems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Subsurface Trend Analysis domains for the northern Gulf of Mexico

Geologic domains for the northern Gulf of Mexico derived using the Subsurface Trend Analysis (STA) method. The domains were postulated using geologic province, lithologic, and structural information and validated using statistical methods. Publication detailing the STA method: Rose, K., Bauer, J.R., and Mark-Moser, M. (2020) Subsurface trend analysis, a multi-variate geospatial approach for subsurface evaluation and uncertainty reduction, Interpretation, vol. 8, issue 1 https://library.seg.org/doi/abs/10.1190/int-2019-0019.1 Detailed discussion of domain formation and analysis: Mark-Moser, M., Miller, R., Bauer, J., Rose, K., and C. Disenhof. 2018, Analysis of Subsurface Reservoir Properties Using a Novel Geospatial Approach, Offshore Gulf of Mexico. NETL-TRS-2018 https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/detailed-analysis-of-geospatial-trends-of-hydrocarbon-accumulations-offshore-gulf-of-mexico

geology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in the GDSA Framework (FY2024)

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign (SFWST) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) is conducting research and development on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). Two priorities for SFWST are design concept development and disposal system modeling. These priorities are directly addressed in the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) control account, which is charged with developing a geologic repository system modeling and analysis capability, and the associated software, GDSA Framework, for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1988

Mars sample return mission: What level of complexity

The complexity of the U.S. Sample Return Mission is ultimately dependent on current mission funding and the projected direction of the U.S. space program. Despite these uncertainties, it is important to examine mission scenarios to address desired scientific objectives that can be summarized in the following list: (1) determine existence of climatic records in geologic records; (2) does Mars have a subpermafrost groundwater system; (3) fundamental questions on the existence of Mars biology; (4) what is the internal structure of Mars; (5) determine the systems for regolith formation; and (6) what is the contribution of meteorites to Martian geology and climate are presented. To address these objectives, the sample size, quantity and location must be established and whether this should be the only data searched for on the Martian surface. With this in mind, three mission scenarios are briefly discussed, in order of increasing complexity.

Ciesla, Thomas M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

An introduction to the global positioning system and some geological applications

The fundamental principles of the global positioning system (GPS) are reviewed, with consideration given to geological and geophysical applications and related accuracy requirements. Recent improvements are emphasized which relate to areas such as equipment cost, limitations in the GPS satellite constellation, data analysis, uncertainties in satellite orbits and propagation delays, and problems in resolving carrier phase cycle ambiguities. Earthquake processes and near-fault crustal deformation monitoring have been facilitated by advances in GPS data acquisition and analysis. Horizontal positioning capability has been improved by new satellite constellation, better models, and global tracking networks. New classes of tectonic problems may now be studied through GPS, such as kinematic descriptions of crustal deformation and the measurement of relative plate motion at convergent boundaries. Continued improvements in the GPS are foreseen.

Dixon, T. H.↗