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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Watershed zonation through hillslope clustering for tractably quantifying above- and below-ground watershed heterogeneity and functions

Abstract. In this study, we develop a watershed zonation approach for characterizing watershed organization and functions in a tractable manner by integrating multiple spatial data layers. We hypothesize that (1) a hillslope is an appropriate unit for capturing the watershed-scale heterogeneity of key bedrock-through-canopy properties and for quantifying the co-variability of these properties representing coupled ecohydrological and biogeochemical interactions, (2) remote sensing data layers and clustering methods can be used to identify watershed hillslope zones having the unique distributions of these properties relative to neighboring parcels, and (3) property suites associated with the identified zones can be used to understand zone-based functions, such as response to early snowmelt or drought and solute exports to the river. We demonstrate this concept using unsupervised clustering methods that synthesize airborne remote sensing data (lidar, hyperspectral, and electromagnetic surveys) along with satellite and streamflow data collected in the East River Watershed, Crested Butte, Colorado, USA. Results show that (1) we can define the scale of hillslopes at which the hillslope-averaged metrics can capture the majority of the overall variability in key properties (such as elevation, net potential annual radiation, and peak snow-water equivalent – SWE), (2) elevation and aspect are independent controls on plant and snow signatures, (3) near-surface bedrock electrical resistivity (top 20 m) and geological structures are significantly correlated with surface topography and plan species distribution, and (4) K-means, hierarchical clustering, and Gaussian mixture clustering methods generate similar zonation patterns across the watershed. Using independently collected data, we show that the identified zones provide information about zone-based watershed functions, including foresummer drought sensitivity and river nitrogen exports. The approach is expected to be applicable to other sites and generally useful for guiding the selection of hillslope-experiment locations and informing model parameterization.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reduced Order Models for Liquid Hydrogen Pooling and Vaporization Supported by Experiments

In the event of a leak of liquid hydrogen, a pool can form that vaporizes, disperses, and eventually dilutes to a non-flammable mixture. In this work, we describe fast-running models for the pooling and vaporization of liquid hydrogen in a steady cross-wind. Several pooling models from the literature are compared to solve for the flow and extent of the pool. The size of the pool can serve as the source for a separate dispersion model, which builds upon the existing one-dimensional Gaussian plume model in HyRAM+. Additional terms for the effects of a cross-wind on momentum and entrainment were added so that the model could handle the effects of a cross-wind on a low-speed flow. The models are compared to experimental data on pooling extent and downwind dispersion for steady flow rates of liquid hydrogen in a steady cross-wind. In the two compared experiments, liquid flow rates of 15 and 45 g/s were spilled onto concrete in cross-winds of approximately 1.8 m/s. The rate of growth of the pool and the downwind concentration boundaries are compared to the models, showing good agreement, although additional tuning is needed. These models can contribute to the advancement of codes and standards for liquid hydrogen systems.

dispersion↗
NASA NTRS1989

The effect of ionization on the infrared absorption spectra of PAHs: A preliminary report

The emission lines observed in many interstellar IR sources at 3.28, 6.2, 7.7, 8.7, and 11.3 microns are theorized to originate from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). These assignments are based on analyses of lab IR spectra of neutral PAHs. However, it is likely that in the interstellar medium that PAHs are ionized, i.e., are positively charged. Besides, as pointed out by Allamandola et al., although the IR emission band spectrum resembles what one might expect from a mixture of PAHs, it does not match in details such as frequency, band profile, or relative intensities predicted from the absorption spectra of any known PAH molecule. One source of more information to test the PAH theory is ab initio molecular orbital theory. It can be used to compute, from first principles, the geometries, vibrational frequencies, and vibrational intensities for model PAH compounds which are difficult to study in the lab. The Gaussian 86 computer program was used to determine the effect of ionization on the infrared absorption spectra of several small PAHs: naphthalene and anthracene. A preliminary report is presented of the results of these calculations.

Defrees, Doug J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning with Gradient-Based Optimization of Nuclear Waste Vitrification with Uncertainties and Constraints

Gekko is an optimization suite in Python that solves optimization problems involving mixed-integer, nonlinear, and differential equations. The purpose of this study is to integrate common Machine Learning (ML) algorithms such as Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), support vector regression (SVR), and artificial neural network (ANN) models into Gekko to solve data based optimization problems. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is used alongside ML for better decision making. These methods include ensemble methods, model-specific methods, conformal predictions, and the delta method. An optimization problem involving nuclear waste vitrification is presented to demonstrate the benefit of ML in this field. ML models are compared against the current partial quadratic mixture (PQM) model in an optimization problem in Gekko. GPR with conformal uncertainty was chosen as the best substitute model as it had a lower mean squared error of 0.0025 compared to 0.018 and more confidently predicted a higher waste loading of 37.5 wt% compared to 34 wt%. The example problem shows that these tools can be used in similar industry settings where easier use and better performance is needed over classical approaches. Future works with these tools include expanding them with other regression models and UQ methods, and exploration into other optimization problems or dynamic control.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2003

Presumed PDF Modeling of Early Flame Propagation in Moderate to Intense Turbulence Environments

The present paper describes the results obtained from a one-dimensional time dependent numerical technique that simulates early flame propagation in a moderate to intense turbulent environment. Attention is focused on the development of a spark-ignited, premixed, lean methane/air mixture with the unsteady spherical flame propagating in homogeneous and isotropic turbulence. A Monte-Carlo particle tracking method, based upon the method of fractional steps, is utilized to simulate the phenomena represented by a probability density function (PDF) transport equation. Gaussian distributions of fluctuating velocity and fuel concentration are prescribed. Attention is focused on three primary parameters that influence the initial flame kernel growth: the detailed ignition system characteristics, the mixture composition, and the nature of the flow field. The computational results of moderate and intense isotropic turbulence suggests that flames within the distributed reaction zone are not as vulnerable, as traditionally believed, to the adverse effects of increased turbulence intensity. It is also shown that the magnitude of the flame front thickness significantly impacts the turbulent consumption flame speed. Flame conditions studied have fuel equivalence ratio s in the range phi = 0.6 to 0.9 at standard temperature and pressure.

Carmen, Christina↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exponential vs Gaussian Correlation Functions in the Characterization of Block Copolymer Grain Structure by Depolarized Light Scattering

Block copolymer (BCP) grain structure affects the mechanical, optical, and electrical properties of BCP materials, making the accurate characterization of this grain structure an important goal. In this study, improved BCP grain parameters were obtained by employing an exponentially decaying correlation function within the ellipsoidal grain model, instead of the Gaussian correlation function that was used in previous work. The exponential correlation function provides a better fit to the experimental depolarized light scattering data, which outweighs the disadvantage that it requires numerical integration to obtain the model scattered intensity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

A reactive electrochemomechanical theory for growth and remodeling of polyelectrolyte hydrogels and application to dynamic polymerization of $\text{DNA}$ hydrogels

Here this study develops a framework for growth and remodeling of active polyelectrolyte hydrogels that accounts for effects of compositional changes on the mechanical response. By developing a reactive electrochemomechanical theory, thermodynamical constraints upon reactive and remodeling processes are elucidated within a general framework that allows any number of chemical reactions to evolve the response of the gel and transfer mass and charge between constituents. Fully coupled, nonlinear constitutive relations are adopted for molar fluxes, allowing exploration of effects including cross-diffusion, electrophoresis, and electro-osmosis. A robust finite element implementation is developed in the open source FEBio software (febio.org) by exploiting an equivalence between electrochemomechanics and mixture theory. The implementation is verified against analytical solutions for free swelling, and a proper reduction to a prior chemomechanical theory is demonstrated for neutral gels swollen only by a solvent with no solutes. The theory and implementation are then applied to model the tunable large swelling achieved through dynamic polymerization of DNA crosslinkers seen in our recently developed experimental hydrogel system (Cangialosi et al., 2017). A novel constitutive model for reaction-driven evolution of the locking stretch λ L in a non-Gaussian mechanical free energy was developed, where the increasing concentration of DNA crosslinkers makes further swelling energetically favorable. With a single free parameter, excellent agreement was found between measured and predicted equilibrium swelling ratios. This study demonstrated the ability to extend the electrochemomechanical framework to include chemical reactions and composition-aware constitutive models, and showed that development of reactive models allows simulation of complex dynamic polymerization phenomena not treated before. The theoretical frame here can be further expanded in scope to incorporate additional non-ideal and nonlinear phenomena.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chemical Robotics Enabled Exploration of Stability in Multicomponent Lead Halide Perovskites via Machine Learning

Metal halide perovskites have attracted immense interest as a promising material for a variety of optoelectronic and sensing applications. However, issues regarding long-term stability have emerged as the key bottleneck for commercialization. Here, we develop an automated experimental workflow based on combinatorial synthesis and rapid throughput characterization to explore long-term stability of these materials in ambient conditions. We apply it to four model perovskite systems: MA x FA y Cs 1–x–y PbBr 3 , MA x FA y Cs 1–x–y PbI 3 , Cs x FA y MA 1–x–y Pb(Br x+y I 1–x–y ) 3 , and Cs x MA y FA 1–x–y Pb(I x+y Br 1–x–y ) 3 . Non-negative matrix factorization and Gaussian process regression are used to interpolate the photoluminescent behavior of the phase diagram. This interpolative regression analysis helps to distinguish mixtures that form solid solutions from those that segregate into multiple materials, pointing out the most stable regions of the phase diagram. Here, we find stability dependence on composition to be nonuniform within the composition space, suggesting the presence of potential preferential compositional regions. This proposed workflow is universal and can be applied to other solution-processable materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2012

Statistical Orbit Determination using the Particle Filter for Incorporating Non-Gaussian Uncertainties

The tracking of space objects requires frequent and accurate monitoring for collision avoidance. As even collision events with very low probability are important, accurate prediction of collisions require the representation of the full probability density function (PDF) of the random orbit state. Through representing the full PDF of the orbit state for orbit maintenance and collision avoidance, we can take advantage of the statistical information present in the heavy tailed distributions, more accurately representing the orbit states with low probability. The classical methods of orbit determination (i.e. Kalman Filter and its derivatives) provide state estimates based on only the second moments of the state and measurement errors that are captured by assuming a Gaussian distribution. Although the measurement errors can be accurately assumed to have a Gaussian distribution, errors with a non-Gaussian distribution could arise during propagation between observations. Moreover, unmodeled dynamics in the orbit model could introduce non-Gaussian errors into the process noise. A Particle Filter (PF) is proposed as a nonlinear filtering technique that is capable of propagating and estimating a more complete representation of the state distribution as an accurate approximation of a full PDF. The PF uses Monte Carlo runs to generate particles that approximate the full PDF representation. The PF is applied in the estimation and propagation of a highly eccentric orbit and the results are compared to the Extended Kalman Filter and Splitting Gaussian Mixture algorithms to demonstrate its proficiency.

Mashiku, Alinda↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Waste Material Feedstocks Using Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy and Machine Learning

Predicting properties such as heating value, ash fusion temperature, and mineral ash composition from Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) data can make gasifiers more flexible to different feedstocks. Understanding these feedstock properties in-situ improves feedstock conversion modelling methods that allow for consistent operation, higher carbon conversion, and reduced fouling and erosion rates. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate methods for model creation that take LIBS data as predictor features and estimate higher order material properties as a function of feedstock material properties. Six samples were chosen to represent a mixture of abundant and carbon rich waste materials. LIBS measurements were performed on these samples for elemental wavelengths and intensity values. Laboratory analytical results were obtained for each sample’s heating value, proximate and ultimate analysis, mineral ash composition, ash fusion temperatures, and viscosity temperatures. Thermal conductivity was measured using a HotDisk TPS 2500S. LIBS measurements were processed and used as predictor features for machine learning (ML) models to predict the sample’s material properties. Predictor feature selection algorithms, particularly minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR), reduced the dimensionality of ML models. Many modelling methods such as Gaussian process regression (GPR), regression tree, neural networks (NN), and support vector machines (SVM) were demonstrated to be effective at predicting higher order properties; however, mRMR with GPR stood out as a clear winning combination.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

Photometric redshifts for the S-PLUS Survey: Is machine learning up to the task?

The Southern Photometric Local Universe Survey (S-PLUS) is a novel project that aims to map the Southern Hemisphere using a twelve filter system, comprising five broad-band SDSS-like filters and seven narrow-band filters optimized for important stellar features in the local universe. In this paper we use the photometry and morphological information from the first S-PLUS data release (S-PLUS DR1) cross-matched to unWISE data and spectroscopic redshifts from Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR15. We explore three different machine learning methods (Gaussian Processes with GPz and two Deep Learning models made with TensorFlow) and compare them with the currently used template-fitting method in the S-PLUS DR1 to address whether machine learning methods can take advantage of the twelve filter system for photometric redshift prediction. Using tests for accuracy for both single-point estimates such as the calculation of the scatter, bias, and outlier fraction, and probability distribution functions (PDFs) such as the Probability Integral Transform (PIT), the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the Odds distribution, we conclude that a deep-learning method using a combination of a Bayesian Neural Network and a Mixture Density Network offers the most accurate photometric redshifts for the current test sample. In conclusion, it achieves single-point photometric redshifts with scatter (σ NMAD ) of 0.023, normalized bias of -0.001, and outlier fraction of 0.64% for galaxies with r_auto magnitudes between 16 and 21.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

AL4GAP: Active learning workflow for generating DFT-SCAN accurate machine-learning potentials for combinatorial molten salt mixtures

Machine learning interatomic potentials have emerged as a powerful tool for bypassing the spatiotemporal limitations of ab initio simulations, but major challenges remain in their efficient parameterization. We present AL4GAP, an ensemble active learning software workflow for generating multicomposition Gaussian approximation potentials (GAP) for arbitrary molten salt mixtures. The workflow capabilities include: (1) setting up user-defined combinatorial chemical spaces of charge neutral mixtures of arbitrary molten mixtures spanning 11 cations (Li, Na, K, Rb, Cs, Mg, Ca, Sr, Ba and two heavy species, Nd, and Th) and 4 anions (F, Cl, Br, and I), (2) configurational sampling using low-cost empirical parameterizations, (3) active learning for down-selecting configurational samples for single point density functional theory calculations at the level of Strongly Constrained and Appropriately Normed (SCAN) exchange-correlation functional, and (4) Bayesian optimization for hyperparameter tuning of two-body and many-body GAP models. Here, we apply the AL4GAP workflow to showcase high throughput generation of five independent GAP models for multicomposition binary-mixture melts, each of increasing complexity with respect to charge valency and electronic structure, namely: LiCl–KCl, NaCl–CaCl 2 , KCl–NdCl 3 , CaCl 2 –NdCl 3 , and KCl–ThCl 4 . Our results indicate that GAP models can accurately predict structure for diverse molten salt mixture with density functional theory (DFT)-SCAN accuracy, capturing the intermediate range ordering characteristic of the multivalent cationic melts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting Li-Ion Battery Capacity Fade Using Early-Life Data and a Hybrid Data-Driven Gaussian Process-Bayesian Regression Approach

Accurately predicting Li-ion battery capacity trajectories using early-life data can dramatically improve battery-life understandings and be used to rapidly evaluate design/cost/performance trade-offs when developing new battery materials. Accurate early-life predictions enable researchers to quickly iterate over cell designs and material precursor properties without consistently cycling cells to failure. To this end, we present a toolbox that uses a combined Gaussian Process and Bayesian regression approach that capitalizes on signals other than just capacity (e.g., dQ/dV, voltage drops) to rapidly predict capacity-fade trajectories. The prediction tool uses Bayesian regression to fit functional forms, e.g., power law, sigmoids, etc., to predict capacity-fade dynamics. By fitting functional forms, the capacity fade can be interrogated at any point in the future, allowing for early cell-failure prediction. Additionally, Bayesian regression allows for accurate uncertainty estimates that account for cell-to-cell variability (aleatoric uncertainty) and the lack of observation data (epistemic uncertainty). By only using early cycle data to predict the capacity fade trajectory, uncertainty bounds at end-of-life can be extremely large. The large uncertainty bounds are further exacerbated because there is no systematic way to define the prior distribution of the functional forms' parameters. We improve our the predicted trajectory confidence interval of our predicted trajectory using two methods. First, we shows that a small amount of held-out cycling data is sufficientuse some train cells, that have been cycled to failure to derive information regarding the appropriate prior distributions for the functional forms' parameters of the functional form, effectively leading to data-driven priors.. We propose constructing the data-driven priors by first running a Bayesian regression starting with uninformed priors to generate intermediate cell-specific posterior parameter distributions. These posterior distributions are combined using a Ggaussian mixture model for each parameter to create the data-driven priors. These mixture models serve as the data-driven prior distributions for the parameters for. Second, we derive multiple features, e.g., C_dchg 0.5 DoD 0.5, log (|mean(dQ/dV_(w_3-w_0 ) (V)|), etc., from the train cellsheld-out cycling data, identify which the features are that best predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles, and then create Ggaussian process regression models that are used for predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles for the test cells (see blue dots with error bars in Fig 1b). Finally, these predicted data-points are used in addition to the actual early cycle data capacity fade to construct the Bayesian regression trajectory for the test cell s. Notably. We note that these two methods are complementary and can be combined with each other. We evaluate the performance of our proposed method on an testing open-source dataset from Iowa State University and Iowa Lakes Community College (ISU-ILCC). This dataset comprises of 251 nickel-manganese-cobalt/graphite Lithium-ion cells that are cycled under 63 different conditions. We compute the mean average percentage error (MAPE) and negative log predictive density (NLPD) to quantify the efficacy of our method. Our initial findings suggest that, when only few observations are available, for test cells, when using only Bayesian regression with uninformed priors, a power law functional provides the most accurate predictions. with very few data points. However, asHowever, a the number of data points increases, a twin sigmoidal function becomes more accurate as the number of observations further increases. We also find that using as little as 10% of the data set towards generating data-driven priors can lead to significant improvement in prediction accuracy when using early cycle data. Lastly, we found that augmenting early-cycle data with Gaussian process-predicted capacity data for Bayesian regression greatly improves the prediction accuracy. We will present a comprehensive comparison of our methods to other methods available in the literature and apply this method to additional battery datasets.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning-Based Classification of Lignocellulosic Biomass from Pyrolysis-Molecular Beam Mass Spectrometry Data

High-throughput analysis of biomass is necessary to ensure consistent and uniform feedstocks for agricultural and bioenergy applications and is needed to inform genomics and systems biology models. Pyrolysis followed by mass spectrometry such as molecular beam mass spectrometry (py-MBMS) analyses are becoming increasingly popular for the rapid analysis of biomass cell wall composition and typically require the use of different data analysis tools depending on the need and application. Here, the authors report the py-MBMS analysis of several types of lignocellulosic biomass to gain an understanding of spectral patterns and variation with associated biomass composition and use machine learning approaches to classify, differentiate, and predict biomass types on the basis of py-MBMS spectra. Py-MBMS spectra were also corrected for instrumental variance using generalized linear modeling (GLM) based on the use of select ions relative abundances as spike-in controls. Machine learning classification algorithms e.g., random forest, k-nearest neighbor, decision tree, Gaussian Naïve Bayes, gradient boosting, and multilayer perceptron classifiers were used. The k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) classifier generally performed the best for classifications using raw spectral data, and the decision tree classifier performed the worst. After normalization of spectra to account for instrumental variance, all the classifiers had comparable and generally acceptable performance for predicting the biomass types, although the k-NN and decision tree classifiers were not as accurate for prediction of specific sample types. Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) classifiers performed better than the k-NN and the decision tree classifiers for the prediction of biomass mixtures. The data analysis workflow reported here could be applied and extended for comparison of biomass samples of varying types, species, phenotypes, and/or genotypes or subjected to different treatments, environments, etc. to further elucidate the sources of spectral variance, patterns, and to infer compositional information based on spectral analysis, particularly for analysis of data without a priori knowledge of the feedstock composition or identity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Does Chirality Influence the Stability of Amino Acid –Cu Complexes in the Salt-Induced Peptide Formation Reaction? Insights from Density Functional Theory Calculations

The polymerization of amino acids into peptides and ultimately proteins is critical to evolution of life. Ribosomally-synthesized proteins are homochiral, composed entirely of L-amino acids. Abiotic syntheses of amino acids, however, produce racemic mixtures(equal amounts of L and D enantiomers), meaning that the pool of monomers available for abiotic protein synthesis would be racemic or nearly so. There are no prebiotically plausible mechanisms known to yield homochiral peptides from racemic pools of amino acids. While some mechanisms capable of producing or amplifying enantiomeric excesses have been observed, these excesses are small or not applicable to all biologically relevant amino acids. As a result, a prebiotically-feasible mechanism to create enantiopure pools of amino acids has not been identified. However, it is not clear that these enantio-enriched or enantiopure pools are necessary to produce homochiral peptides. Steric and electronic effects, or a combination of both, may influence how different enantiomers interact with each other, potentially leading to homochiral peptides from racemic mixtures. Here, we use density functional theory (DFT) calculations to assess the stability of homochiral and heterochiral reactive complexes produced during polymerization via the salt-induced peptide formation (SIPF) reaction. Experimental studies of the SIPF reaction have shown that it enables the formation of peptides under diverse environmental conditions, making it a plausible pathway to peptide formation on early Earth. In the SIPF reaction, NaCl acts as a condensation reagent while a divalent metal cation, primarily Cu2+, facilitates polymerization by complexing and activating amino acids forming a monochlorocuprate complex. To assess if hetero-or homochiral monochlorocuprate complexes were energetically favored, we compared the stability of LL, DD, and LD enantiomers of Cu2+–(alanine)2and Cu2+–(valine) 2 complexes. Gaussian 09 density DFT energy-minimization calculations were made for each Cu –amino acid complex in the cis and trans configuration. Models were energy minimized using the BH and HLYP/6-31++G(d,p) level of theory and free energies were compared to determine the most stable configuration.

A C Fox↗
DOE OSTI2023

Super-swelling behavior of stacked lipid bilayer systems

Bilayer systems comprising lipid mixtures are the most well-studied model of biological membranes. While the plasma membrane of the cell is a single bilayer, many intra- and extra-cellular biomembranes comprise stacks of bilayers. Most bilayer stacks in nature are periodic, maintaining a precise water layer separation between bilayers. That equilibrium water separation is governed by multiple inter-bilayer forces and is highly responsive. Biomembranes re-configure inter-bilayer spacing in response to temperature, composition, or mass transport cues. In synthetic bilayer systems for applications in cosmetics or topical treatments, control of the hydration level is a critical design handle. Herein we investigate a binary lipid system that leverages key inter-bilayer forces leading to unprecedented levels of aqueous swelling while maintaining a coherent multilamellar form. We found that combining cationic lipids with bicontinuous cubic phase-forming lipids (lipids with positive Gaussian modulus), results in the stabilization of multilamellar phases against repulsive steric forces that typically lead to bilayer delamination at high degrees of swelling. Using ultra-small-angle X-ray scattering alongside confocal laser scanning microscopy, we characterized various super-swelled states of 1,2-dioleoyl-3-trimethylammonium-propane (DOTAP) and glycerol monooleate (GMO) lipids, as well as other analogous systems, at varied concentration and molar ratios. Through these experiments we established swelling profiles of various binary lipid systems that were near-linear with decreasing lipid volume fraction, showing maximum swelling with periodicity well above 200 nanometers.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of a deep learning fuel property prediction model

Deep learning models are being widely used in the field of combustion. Given the black-box nature of typical neural network based models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical to ensure the reliability of predictions as well as the training datasets, and for a principled quantification of noise and its various sources. Deep learning surrogate models for predicting properties of chemical compounds and mixtures have been recently shown to be promising for enabling data-driven fuel design and optimization, with the ultimate goal of improving efficiency and lowering emissions from combustion engines. In this study, UQ is performed for a multi-task deep learning model that simultaneously predicts the research octane number (RON), Motor Octane Number (MON), and Yield Sooting Index (YSI) of pure components and multicomponent blends. The deep learning model is comprised of three smaller networks: Extractor 1, Extractor 2, and Predictor, and a mixing operator. The molecular fingerprints of individual components are encoded via Extractor 1 and Extractor 2, the mixing operator generates fingerprints for mixtures/blends based on linear mixing operation, and the predictor maps the fingerprint to the target properties. Two different classes of UQ methods, Monte Carlo ensemble methods and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), are employed for quantifying the epistemic uncertainty. Combinations of Bernoulli and Gaussian distributions with DropConnect and DropOut techniques are explored as ensemble methods. All the DropConnect, DropOut and Bayesian layers are applied to the predictor network. Aleatoric uncertainty is modeled by assuming that each data point has an independent uncertainty associated with it. The results of the UQ study are further analyzed to compare the performance of BNN and ensemble methods. Although this study is confined to UQ of fuel property prediction, the methodologies are applicable to other deep learning frameworks that are being widely used in the combustion community.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS1994

The active titration method for measuring local hydroxyl radical concentration

We are developing a method for measuring ambient OH by monitoring its rate of reaction with a chemical species. Our technique involves the local, instantaneous release of a mixture of saturated cyclic hydrocarbons (titrants) and perfluorocarbons (dispersants). These species must not normally be present in ambient air above the part per trillion concentration. We then track the mixture downwind using a real-time portable ECD tracer instrument. We collect air samples in canisters every few minutes for roughly one hour. We then return to the laboratory and analyze our air samples to determine the ratios of the titrant to dispersant concentrations. The trends in these ratios give us the ambient OH concentration from the relation: dlnR/dt = -k(OH). A successful measurement of OH requires that the trends in these ratios be measureable. We must not perturb ambient OH concentrations. The titrant to dispersant ratio must be spatially invariant. Finally, heterogeneous reactions of our titrant and dispersant species must be negligible relative to the titrant reaction with OH. We have conducted laboratory studies of our ability to measure the titrant to dispersant ratios as a function of concentration down to the few part per trillion concentration. We have subsequently used these results in a gaussian puff model to estimate our expected uncertainty in a field measurement of OH. Our results indicate that under a range of atmospheric conditions we expect to be able to measure OH with a sensitivity of 3x10(exp 5) cm(exp -3). In our most optimistic scenarios, we obtain a sensitivity of 1x10(exp 5) cm(exp -3). These sensitivity values reflect our anticipated ability to measure the ratio trends. However, because we are also using a rate constant to obtain our (OH) from this ratio trend, our accuracy cannot be better than that of the rate constant, which we expect to be about 20 percent.

Sprengnether, Michele↗