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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1981

Solar power satellite cost estimate

The solar power configuration costed is the 5 GW silicon solar cell reference system. The subsystems identified by work breakdown structure elements to the lowest level for which cost information was generated. This breakdown divides into five sections: the satellite, construction, transportation, the ground receiving station and maintenance. For each work breakdown structure element, a definition, design description and cost estimate were included. An effort was made to include for each element a reference that more thoroughly describes the element and the method of costing used. All costs are in 1977 dollars.

Harron, R. J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward distinguishing Dirac from Majorana neutrino mass with gravitational waves

We propose a new method toward distinguishing the Dirac versus Majorana nature of neutrino masses from the spectrum of gravitational waves (GWs) associated with neutrino mass genesis. Motivated by the principle of generating small neutrino masses without tiny Yukawa couplings, we assume generic seesaw mechanisms for both Majorana and Dirac neutrino masses. For Majorana neutrinos, we further assume a spontaneously broken gauged U ( 1 ) B − L symmetry, independently of the type of Majorana seesaw mechanism, which gives a cosmic string induced GW signal flat over a wide range of frequencies. For Dirac neutrinos, we assume the spontaneous breaking of a Z 2 symmetry, the minimal symmetry choice associated with all Dirac seesaw mechanisms, which is softly broken, generating a peaked GW spectrum from the annihilation of the resulting domain walls. In fact, the GW spectra for all types of Dirac seesaws with such a broken Z 2 symmetry are identical, subject to a mild caveat. As an illustrative example, we study the simplest respective type-I seesaw mechanisms, and show that the striking difference in the shapes of the GW spectra can help differentiate between these Dirac and Majorana seesaws, complementing results of neutrinoless double beta decay experiments. We also discuss detailed implications of the recent NANOGrav data for Majorana and Dirac seesaw models. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-Burnup BWR LOCA Burst Analysis Using High-Fidelity Multiphysics Simulations

The US nuclear industry is looking to improve on the operating economics of the current fleet of light-water reactors (LWRs). One way of achieving this is by operating fuel to higher burnup. In pressurized water reactors (PWRs), relaxing the current burnup limit will allow for cycle length extensions and power uprates; in boiling water reactors (BWRs) it may allow for improved fuel utilization and reduced feed assemblies, as well as more efficient power uprates and increased capacity factors that will support the Administration’s Executive Order to facilitate 5 GW of power uprates at existing nuclear facilities. However, one of the key limitations to operating fuel to higher burnup is the risk of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD). Recognizing the high interest in extending burnup limits, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has issued Draft Regulatory Guide DG-1434, which defines an approach that would be acceptable to the NRC for addressing FFRD risk. The approach defined will require better understanding of the phenomena leading to FFRD as well as best-estimate simulation methods to understand FFRD risk in high-burnup cores. The Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program is supporting the FFRD industry challenge problem through development of state-of-the-art, high-fidelity modeling and simulation LWR analysis capabilities; namely, the BISON fuel performance code and the VERA core simulator software. These tools, along with the US NRC TRACE system analysis code, have been utilized for analysis of FFRD risk in both PWR and BWR cores in recent years. The work documented in this report addresses the lack of high-fidelity research for BWRs and builds on a previous activity where the framework has been applied to Cycles 16 through 18 of Limerick Unit 1, a BWR/4, with introduction of 8 high-burnup lead use assemblies (HBLUAs) that were representative of the 8 HBLUAs loaded into Limerick Unit 2 in 2021. VERA was used in this previous activity to model rod-by-rod depletion in these cycles, and its solution was used to initialize a TRACE simulation of a large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) at the end of Cycle 18. In the work documented in this report, the TRACE model was improved by refining the core mesh and utilizing a new feature that allows for capturing the full 3D VERA power distribution in the model. This allows for a more detailed solution for setting BISON boundary conditions. Furthermore, the solutions from VERA and TRACE were used to set up and perform BISON simulations of about 1,000 rods sampled from the core, including all burnup levels. Utilizing two cladding burst models, it was shown that no fuel rods were predicted to burst during the postulated LBLOCA transient. Additionally, a sensitivity study was performed by artificially increasing linear heat rate during the postulated LBLOCA to identify parameters that correlate with rod burst susceptibility. Burnup, fission gas release, and hoop strain were all found to be positively correlated with rod burst susceptibility. Small-break loss-of-coolant accident (SBLOCA) analyses were also performed; these analyses predicted cladding temperature increases that were bounded by the LBLOCA cladding temperatures for all small break sizes studied for this plant. However, future refinements to the plant response assumptions during the SBLOCA could impact the predicted cladding response. Finally, a benchmark study was performed between CTF and TRACE for LOCA conditions to better qualify CTF for BWR LOCA modeling.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2015

Optimization of the Swift X-Ray Follow-Up of Advanced LIGO and Virgo Gravitational Wave Triggers in 2015-16

One of the most exciting near-term prospects in physics is the potential discovery of gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors. To maximize both the confidence of the detection and the science return, it is essential to identify an electromagnetic counterpart.This is not trivial, as the events are expected to be poorly localized, particularly in the near-term, with error regions covering hundreds or even thousands of square degrees. In this paper, we discuss the prospects for finding an X-ray counterpart to a gravitational wave trigger with the Swift X-ray Telescope, using the assumption that the trigger is caused by a binary neutron star merger which also produces a short gamma-ray burst. We show that it is beneficial to target galaxies within the GW error region, highlighting the need for substantially complete galaxy catalogues out to distances of 300 Mpc. We also show that nearby, on-axis short GRBs are either extremely rare, or are systematically less luminous than those detected to date. We consider the prospects for detecting afterglow emission from an off-axis GRB which triggered the GW facilities, finding that the detectability, and the best time to look,are strongly dependent on the characteristics of the burst such as circumburst density and our viewing angle.

gravitational waves – methods: observational –↗
DOE OSTI2025

First characterisation of the MAGO cavity, a superconducting RF detector for kHz–MHz gravitational waves

Heterodyne detection using microwave cavities is a promising method for detecting high-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) or ultralight axion dark matter. In this work, we report on studies conducted on a spherical 2-cell cavity developed by the MAGO collaboration for high-frequency GWs detection. Although fabricated around 20 years ago, the cavity had not been used since. Due to deviations from the nominal geometry, we conducted a mechanical survey and performed room-temperature plastic tuning. Measurements and simulations of the mechanical resonances and electromagnetic properties were carried out, as these are critical for estimating the cavity’s GW coupling potential. Based on these results, we plan further studies in a cryogenic environment. The cavity characterisation does not only provide valuable experience for a planned physics run but also informs the future development of improved cavity designs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2007

Binary Black Holes, Gravitational Waves, and Numerical Relativity

This viewgraph presentation reviews the massive black hole (MBH) binaries that are found at the center of most galaxies, "astronomical messenger", gravitational waves (GW), and the use of numerical relativity understand the features of these phenomena. The final merger of two black holes releases a tremendous amount of energy and is one of the brightest sources in the gravitational wave sky. Observing these sources with gravitational wave detectors requires that we know the radiation waveforms they emit. Since these mergers take place in regions of very strong gravitational fields, we need to solve Einstein's equations of general relativity on a computer in order to calculate these waveforms. For more than 30 years, scientists have tried to compute these waveforms using the methods of numerical relativity.. This talk will take you on this quest for the holy grail of numerical relativity, showing how a spacetime is constructed on a computer to build a simulation laboratory for binary black hole mergers. We will focus on the recent advances that are revealing these waveforms, and the dramatic new potential for discoveries that arises when these sources will be observed by LIGO and LISA.

Centrella, Joan↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Technology Roadmap for Advanced Geothermal Well Construction

Recent analysis has shown that by 2050, geothermal energy can supply up to 90 GW of power to the U.S. electrical grid. Reducing the lifecycle cost of geothermal wells is critical to achieving this level of adoption. While time-related costs of drilling remain an important issue, there is also a need to focus on the costs associated with casing and cementing of geothermal wells. This report provides a roadmap of R&D activities needed to reduce the life cycle cost of casing and cementing while improving life-of-well performance. The purpose of the roadmap is to develop priorities for R&D in the areas of (1) high-performance and cost-effective materials for target geothermal well conditions, (2) well construction methods and techniques to reduce construction costs, and (3) methods and techniques to decrease to decrease long-term operating costs. The roadmap sets targets for the next 10-year period and purposely excludes R&D efforts into improved rock reduction. The roadmap was developed by a joint working group of experts from Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Brookhaven National Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories as well as 35 experts from industry and academia. Input from a series of information gathering sessions was used to inform and guide the development of the roadmap.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Gallium-doped zinc oxide: nonlinear reflection and transmission measurements and modeling in the ENZ region

Abstract Strong nonlinear materials have been sought after for decades for applications in telecommunications, sensing, and quantum optics. Gallium-doped zinc oxide is a II–VI transparent conducting oxide that shows promising nonlinearities similar to indium tin oxide and aluminum-doped zinc oxide for the telecommunications band. Here we explore its nonlinearities in the epsilon near zero (ENZ) region and show n 2,eff values on the order of 4.5 × 10 −3 cm 2 GW −1 for IR pumping on 200–300 nm thin films. Measuring nonlinear changes in transmission and reflection with a white light source probe in the near-IR while exciting in the near-IR provides data in both time and wavelength. Three films varying in thickness, optical loss, and ENZ crossover wavelength are numerically modeled and compared to experimental data showing agreement for both dispersion and temporal relaxation. In addition, we discuss optimal excitation and probing wavelengths occur around ENZ for thick films but are red-shifted for thin films where our model provides an additional degree of freedom to explore. Obtaining accurate nonlinear measurements is a difficult and time-consuming task where our method in this paper provides experimental and modeled data to the community for an ENZ material of interest.

Ball, Adam (ORCID:0000000318167813)↗
NASA NTRS2019

Directional limits on persistent gravitational waves using data from Advanced LIGO’s first two observing runs

We perform an unmodeled search for persistent, directional gravitational wave (GW) sources using data from the first and second observing runs of Advanced LIGO. We do not find evidence for any GW signals. We place limits on the broadband GW flux emitted at 25 Hz from point sources with a power law spectrum at F(α;Θ) < (0.05–25) × 10^(−8) erg/sq. cmsHz and the (normalized) energy density spectrum in GWs at 25 Hz from extended sources at Ω(α)(Θ) < (0.19–2.89) × 10^(−8) per sr where α is the spectral index of the energy density spectrum. These represent improvements of 2.5–3× over previous limits. We also consider point sources emitting GWs at a single frequency, targeting the directions of Sco X-1, SN 1987A, and the Galactic center. The best upper limits on the strain amplitude of a potential source in these three directions range from h(0) < (3.6–4.7) × 10^(−25), 1.5× better than previous limits set with the same analysis method. We also report on a marginally significant outlier at 36.06 Hz. This outlier is not consistent with a persistent gravitational-wave source as its significance diminishes when combining all of the available data.

B. P. Abbott↗
DOE OSTI2024

Lossless Phonon Transition Through GaN‐Diamond and Si‐Diamond Interfaces

Abstract Advancing Silicon (Si) technology beyond Moore's law through 3D architectures requires highly efficient heat management methods compatible with foundry processes. While continued increases in transistor density can be achieved through 3D architectures, self‐heating in the upper tiers degrades the performance. Self‐heating is a critical problem for high‐power, high‐frequency, wide bandgap, and ultra‐wide bandgap devices as well. Diamond, known for its exceptional thermal conductivity, offers a viable solution in both these cases. Since thermal boundary resistance (between the channel/junction and diamond plays a crucial role in overall thermal resistance, this study investigates various dielectrics for interface engineering, such as Silicon dioxide (SiO 2 ), amorphous‐ Silicon Carbide (a‐SiC), and Silicon Nitride (SiN x ), to make a phonon bridge at gallium nitride (GaN)‐diamond and Si‐diamond interfaces. The a‐SiC interlayer reduces diamond/GaN (<5 m 2 K per GW) and diamond/Si (<2 m 2 K per GW) thermal boundary resistances by linking low‐ and high‐frequency phonons, boosting phonon transport through the interface. Engineered interfaces enhance heat spreading from the channel/junction and rule out premature failure.

Malakoutian, Mohamadali↗
DOE OSTI2023

CdTe-based thin film photovoltaics: Recent advances, current challenges and future prospects

Cadmium telluride (CdTe)-based cells have emerged as the leading commercialized thin film photovoltaic technology and has intrinsically better temperature coefficients, energy yield, and degradation rates than Si technologies. More than 30 GW peak (GWp) of CdTe-based modules are installed worldwide, multiple companies are in production, modules are shipping at up to 18.6% efficiency, and lab cell efficiency is above 22%. We review developments in the science and technology that have occurred over approximately the past decade. These achievements were enabled by manufacturing innovations and scaling module production, as well as maximizing photocurrent through window layer optimization and alloyed CdSe x Te 1-x (CST) absorbers. Improved chlorine passivation processes, film microstructure, and serendipitous Se defect passivation significantly increased minority carrier lifetime. Efficiencies >22% have been realized for both Cu and As doped CST-based cells. The path to further efficiency gains hinges primarily on increasing open circuit voltage (V oc ) and fill factor (FF) through innovations in materials, fabrication methods, and device stacks. Replacing the longstanding Cu doping with As doping is resulting in better module stability and is being translated to large-scale production. To realize 25% efficiency and >1 V V oc , research and development is needed to increase the minority carrier lifetime beyond 100 ns, reduce grain boundary and interface recombination, and tailor band diagrams at the front and back interfaces. Many of these goals have been realized separately however combining them together using scalable manufacturing approaches has been elusive to date. We review these achievements and outstanding opportunities for this remarkable photovoltaic technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-temperature self-energy corrections to x-ray absorption spectra

Effects of finite-temperature quasiparticle self-energy corrections on x-ray absorption spectra are investigated within the finite-temperature quasiparticle local density GW approximation up to temperatures T of order the Fermi temperature. To facilitate the calculations, we parametrize the quasiparticle self-energy using low-order polynomial fits. Here we show that temperature-driven decrease in the electron lifetime substantially broadens the spectra in the near-edge region with increasing T. However, the quasiparticle shift is most strongly modified near the onset of plasmon excitations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

pyGWBSE: a high throughput workflow package for GW-BSE calculations

Abstract We develop an open-source python workflow package, py GWBSE to perform automated first-principles calculations within the GW-BSE (Bethe-Salpeter) framework. GW-BSE is a many body perturbation theory based approach to explore the quasiparticle (QP) and excitonic properties of materials. GW approximation accurately predicts bandgaps of materials by overcoming the bandgap underestimation issue of the more widely used density functional theory (DFT). BSE formalism produces absorption spectra directly comparable with experimental observations. py GWBSE package achieves complete automation of the entire multi-step GW-BSE computation, including the convergence tests of several parameters that are crucial for the accuracy of these calculations. py GWBSE is integrated with Wannier90 , to generate QP bandstructures, interpolated using the maximally-localized wannier functions. py GWBSE also enables the automated creation of databases of metadata and data, including QP and excitonic properties, which can be extremely useful for future material discovery studies in the field of ultra-wide bandgap semiconductors, electronics, photovoltaics, and photocatalysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Methods for Assessing Opportunities for Ring Dam Pumped Storage Hydropower

There is growing interest in new pumped storage hydropower (PSH) deployment to provide a range of grid flexibility, reliability, and resiliency services under an evolving and uncertain future power sector. The National Laboratory of the Rockies develops open PSH resource assessment and cost modeling tools to help evaluate PSH deployment opportunities, and this report describes expansions to those tools to consider an additional PSH system configuration - ring-dam reservoirs built on flat topographical features that are constructed from roller-compacted concrete material. This reservoir type is common among current PSH proposals and requires new methods to identify sites with this reservoir geometry throughout the United States and characterize the associated dam cost. Cost characterization for ring dam reservoirs required collecting historical dam cost data for earthen, rockfill, and roller-compacted concrete dams and regressing equations that relate costs between alternative materials. The ring dam site identification algorithm follows a 5-step procedure to identify circular geometry reservoirs. Once ring dam reservoirs are identified, they are then paired with potential dry-gully reservoirs, and the full set of potential paired reservoirs is cost-optimized to produce a least-cost set of potential PSH sites with no overlapping reservoirs. The resulting analysis found 1,663 ring-dam to dry-gully systems in the contiguous United States that are lower cost than any overlapping dry-gully to dry-gully systems, 29 in Alaska, and none in Hawaii or Puerto Rico. These systems constitute 1.5 TW of capacity in the contiguous United States and nearly 29 GW in Alaska, demonstrating that under suitable topography and head, ring-dam systems can provide cost-effective PSH opportunities. The greatest density of these opportunities are found in the intermountain west where there are mesas and flat land at bases of mountain ranges, but continued work could incorporate additional site characteristics or consider more complex reservoir shapes to find additional PSH deployment opportunities.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern U.S. power system

Across recent years, there has been a growing prevalence of extreme weather events throughout the United States, posing significant challenges to the reliable and resilient operation of power systems. Specifically, summer droughts threaten to severely reduce available generation capacity to meet regional electricity demand, potentially leading to power outages. This underscores the importance of accurate resource adequacy (RA) assessment to ensure the reliable operation of the nation’s energy infrastructure. Accurately evaluating the usable capacity of regional generation fleets is a challenging undertaking due to the intricate interactions between power systems and hydro-climatic systems. Here, this paper proposes a systematic and analytical framework to evaluate the impacts of extreme summer drought events on the available capacity of various generating technologies, incorporating both meteorological and hydrologic factors. The framework provides detailed plant-level capacity derating models for hydroelectric, thermoelectric, and renewable power plants, facilitating evaluations with high temporal and spatial resolution. The application of the proposed impact assessment framework to the 2025 generation fleet of the real-world power system within the PJM and SERC regions of the United States yields insightful results. By analyzing the daily usable capacity of 6,055 at-risk generators across the study region, it shows that the summer capacity deration is most significant for hydroelectric and once-through thermal power plants, followed by recirculating thermal power plants and combustion turbines. In the event of the recurrence of the 2007 southeastern summer drought event in the near future, the generation fleet could experience a substantial reduction in available capacity, estimated at approximately 8.5 GW, compared to typical summer conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the usable capacity of the generation fleet would suffer an even more significant decrease under conditions of increasingly severe summer droughts. The proposed approach and the findings of this study provide valuable methodologies and insights, empowering stakeholders to bolster the resilience of power systems against the potentially devastating effects of future extreme drought events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

CdTe Core: Final Technical Report (FTR)

CdTe is presently the cost-leading thin-film PV technology, directly competing with Si at scale, even when domestically manufactured. While an impressive technology, its efficiency remains much below the detailed balance limit with the largest cause due to its low photovoltage and fill factor. To realize gains, the carrier concentration, minority carrier lifetime, and interface recombination all need to be improved simultaneously over historic levels. Using a new defect chemistry (group V doping instead of copper) has been identified as a viable route using single crystal systems. This project focused on implementing this new defect chemistry in scalable, polycrystalline thin-film photovoltaic CdTe devices with tasks focusing improvements to the front interface, absorber, and rear interface as well as capability development & stakeholder engagement. The goal of the project was to establish a strategy using devices, test structures, detailed characterization, and modeling to quantify the sources of losses in state-of-the-art CdTe photovoltaic devices. Using this strategy and advanced synthesis, losses at the front interface, absorber, and rear interface were worked on in parallel. The final objective was to significantly improve the voltage deficit in CdTe devices to enable improvements in photovoltage and efficiency that can be implemented by industry in the near-term. Over the course of the project, the team developed new characterization techniques, analysis, and modeling which were then applied to state-of-the-art materials generated internally and collaboratively. In particular to enable rapid progress, NREL worked closely with First Solar where NREL grew complete devices as well as ones that interleaved process steps where First Solar had completed different steps such as absorber growth or absorber growth and activation using their baseline methods. Using detailed characterization and analysis including photoemission, photoluminescence, and scanning probe techniques enabled understanding of the loss pathways and area for improvements in our own and First Solar s materials. Ultimately, this contributed to the first series of new world record CdTe efficiencies since 2016, culminating in a 23.1% certified cell that was P-doped along with As-doped cells of similar performance. Internally, NREL improved the statistical variation in baseline As-doped devices and improved average photovoltage by over 100 mV. This was done through an improvement in absorber quality, changed front interface, and improved back contact. In addition to materially improving the fabrication processes at NREL, characterization, analysis, and modeling were developed and disseminated. NREL also played a pivotal role in community building over the course of this project working closely with the Cadmium Telluride Accelerator Consortium. NREL worked in a series of collaborations with academic and industry partners, leveraging knowledge and innovations from this project, as well as helped organize a series of workshops to ensure rapid progress in the field. Working closely with the academic community has led to a dissemination of knowledge; working with First Solar as increased US competitiveness First Solar expanded domestic production to ~10 GW and opened new facilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Availability and Performance Loss Factors for U.S. PV Fleet Systems

In the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative, we partner with photovoltaic (PV) fleet owners to collect time-series PV production data and publish aggregated, anonymized results. This report is an update of our previous publications, specifically a FY 2021 performance index publication and a FY 2022 fleet degradation analysis. In this analysis, we have increased our data participants and system totals by around 10% to 8.5 GW and 24,000 separate inverter data channels. Four major analysis topics are considered in this report: Performance Index (PI) trends, PV system availability, soiling losses, and PV system degradation. Performance Index and inverter availability are assessed on a larger set of data from our FY 2021 report: 1,128 systems compared with 200 systems from before. The increased number of systems is due to an improved data quality methodology, as well as introducing new systems to the analysis. Overall results are similar to previously published values - overall inverter availability is low in the first six months of system performance before reaching steady-state by the end of the first year. Excluding this six-month startup period, system-level aggregated data shows a median (P50) system availability of 0.99 and a lower 10th percentile (P90) value of 0.95 (Figure ES-1). A dependence on system size is also demonstrated, with worse inverter availability results for larger PV systems. Causes of this effect are under investigation, but may be impacted by inverter size, which also show lower availability for larger inverter sizes. This report also investigates PI, correcting for degradation, soiling, snow, and availability. Following these corrections, the median system PI over its entire lifetime is 0.95. PI values reported here are approximately 3% lower than what we presented in our previous FY 2021 report. Soiling loss is assessed in a comprehensive way for the first time in this report. Results are presented using the COmbined Degradation and Soiling (CODS) method, as implemented in RdTools (v3.0.0a4). Soiling values are presented for 255 systems, which indicated irradiance-weighted soiling loss greater than 1%. The values have been published in an updated NREL soiling map at nrel.gov/pv/soiling.html. Finally, we investigated system degradation using three different data analysis techniques: conventional RdTools (year-on-year (YOY)), CODS, and Performance Loss Rate (PLR) analysis. Overall degradation results are consistent with our previous publications. Rerunning conventional RdTools on our updated fleet shows that some data partners have systematically fallen below the median system degradation rate (change over time) of -0.75 %/year. A comparison with PLR analysis, which looks at change in annual PI over time, shows that median system degradation is consistent with -0.5% to -0.75% per year change. However, at the P90 value, system degradation is substantially faster. These two results are consistent and indicate that resulting degradation statistics depend to a great degree on the population of PV systems making up the analysis cohort and whether soiling impacts the systems. The use of CODS for degradation analysis provides a different method for degradation assessment, which explicitly excludes the impact of recoverable soiling on degradation analysis. Excluding soiling effects yields an annual system degradation around -0.5% per year on average. This indicates that a portion of system performance loss may be attributed to periodic soiling that is not fully recovered. This report provides PV system owners/operators with background and methods to analyze PV system performance, give guidance for expected cohort performance, and performance loss values for use in pro-forma financial models, which guide new-build system design and bankability reports.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Baseline Cost Model for Hydropower: Documentation (2025)

Hydropower currently contributes about 80 GW of conventional and 23 GW of pumped storage capacity to the United States (US) power grid. Previous studies have estimated a considerable amount of remaining US hydropower resources, including non-powered dams (NPD) (Hadjerioua et al., 2012), new stream-reach developments (NSD) (Kao et al., 2014), pumped storage hydropower (PSH) and canal/conduit (Kao et al., 2022). The combined theoretical capacity potential of these various hydropower resources is comparable to the existing US hydropower capacity. There is a continuing interest in developing this hydropower potential, particularly to help meet the increasing demand for electricity. However, available data (Sasthav and Oladosu, 2022) show that the rate of new hydropower development has slowed considerably over time despite the interest of industry stakeholders. This is partly due to the competition from other energy resources and from the highly dispersed nature of remaining hydropower resources, which lead to high information requirements for evaluating the feasibility of potential projects. Cost information provides the most succinct summary of the feasibility of a potential hydropower project required by stakeholders, including developers, investors, policymakers, consumer groups, etc., considering investment options. The best estimates of hydropower costs can be obtained through detailed engineering design and cost assessments of individual projects. However, this approach has high data and resource (time, funds, cross-disciplinary expertise) requirements that render it inapplicable for rapid cost estimation with limited data. Although innovative approaches can overcome some of these impediments (see Oladosu and Ma, 2024 for such an application to potential NPD projects), the development of such approaches still requires significant amounts of resources and are not generally applicable to all hydropower project types. Therefore, statistical and parametric methods using simpler cost specifications remain of significant utility to hydropower stakeholders and are, at the least, complementary to more detailed approaches, particularly when evaluating many potential projects.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗