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DOE OSTI2021

Chamber Interior Viewing System (CIVS 2.0)

The NIF facility is used to conduct fusion and high-density scientific research. The experiments are conducted inside of a 10-meter diameter vacuum chamber called the “Target Chamber”. The target chamber is covered in ports to permit adding equipment to the exterior. Some of this equipment extends into the target chamber such as the target positioners and diagnostics. Other equipment sits on the surface and looks inward, such as the CIVS system. CIVS stands for Chamber Interior Viewing System. The CIVS system provides simple black and white digital images of the interior of the target chamber in real time. These images are used for positioner alignment, trouble shooting and observing for positioner collision. The views through these cameras need to be clear enough for the operators to safely conduct these tasks. One of the products of the experiments conducted in the target chamber are neutrons. These neutrons expand outward from the center of the target chamber with great energy. If the neutrons hit the sensor chip on a digital camera they will “kill” the sensor pixel where they contact, and the result will be a permanently bright white pixel on the image. Over time these “dead” pixels will build up and make the camera less and less usable providing a “staticky” image. The current solution of replacing the cameras when they become damaged is unsustainable due to both the cameras being out of production and the increased rate of camera failure based upon the increased number and energy of neutrons being generated. Current supplies of the correct camera type are dwindling with no source of replacement and the projected rate of replacement is unsustainable. Without a redesign, the function provided by the current CIVS system will be lost.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

DuraMAT: Building a Consortium to Accelerate the Photovoltaic Module Reliability Learning Cycle

Durable and reliable photovoltaic (PV) modules are critical to enabling an efficient transition to sustainable energy generation. The rate at which new module designs and materials are developed and deployed currently outpaces the rate at which we can identify failure mechanisms and understand degradation rates. Increasing the service life of PV modules, and our ability to predict performance over time, requires more durable materials and designs, better durability testing, more extensive material characterization, robust modeling, and methods to cross-examine historical performance data to extract meaningful results. This is a multidisciplinary challenge that requires expertise from a broad range of fields and, therefore, benefits significantly from a collaborative approach. In this Perspective, we outline the approach taken by the Durable Module Materials Consortium (DuraMAT), present a few case studies where our approach was successful, and provide an outlook on where this approach might be applied as the PV technology landscape continues to rapidly evolve. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Operando FTIR investigation of salt dynamics in Li-ion batteries during fast charging

Li-ion batteries, when charged at fast-charging rates ($>$2C), suffer from reduced lifetimes and can undergo catastrophic failure. During high-rate charging, Li-ions are unable to rapidly transport through high-loading electrodes ($>$4 mAh cm −2 ). This results in unequal charge distributions, potentials, and utilization of the active material, which can lead to Li plating. Li-ion concentration polarization, in which Li-ions deplete in the anode and accumulate in the cathode during charging, precedes Li plating. An operando FTIR-ATR graphite/NMC cell developed in this research captured Li-ion concentration polarization in real-time. During fast charging, decreases in Li-ion concentration ($>$95%) were measured at the back of the anode. This is the first verification of complete Li-ion depletion within the anode at high C-rates. The measurements also showed graphite stage transition. A P2D model was developed for comparison to the operando measurements. The measurements agreed with the model in some cases, but disparities existed at high C-rates and loadings. In the experiment, the Li-ion concentration often failed to recover to 1.2 M until several hours after charging, whereas the model Li-ion concentration rapidly recovered. The contrast between the model and experiment results indicates that further investigation is required to improve understanding of Li-ion concentration dynamics during fast charging.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Rupture Pressure and Leak Rate of Alloy 600 U-bend Tubes with PWSCC and Comparing with Test Results (Technical Letter Report)

This report summarizes structural integrity work performed for the US NRC that predicts the structural integrity of steam generator (SG) tubes with flaws in the U-bend. The work covers model development and validation for U-bend tubes containing lab-induced primary water stress corrosion cracks (PWSCC). Limit load models for plastic collapse predicting ligament rupture pressure and leak rate of cracked U-bend tubes were developed and validated with pressure tests and finite element analyses (FEAs). Failure pressure and leak rate tests were conducted at room temperature on Alloy 600 U-bend tubes containing flaws located at various locations around the U-bend. Existing models for predicting structural integrity of straight tubes with well defined, rectangular, electro-discharge-machined (EDM) flaws were modified and used to predict the ligament rupture and unstable burst pressures as well as leak rates for the PWSCC flaws in the U-bend section.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Kinetic Monte Carlo Approach for Simulating Cascading Transmission Line Failure

In this work, cascading transmission line failures are studied through a dynamical model of the power system operating under fixed conditions. The power grid is modeled as a stochastic dynamical system where first-principles electromechanical dynamics are excited by small Gaussian disturbances in demand and generation around a specified operating point. In this context, a single line failure is interpreted in a large deviation context as a first escape event across a surface in phase space defined by line security constraints. The resulting system of stochastic differential equations admits a transverse decomposition of the drift, which leads to considerable simplification in evaluating the quasipotential (rate function) and, consequently, computation of exit rates. Tractable expressions for the rate of transmission line failure in a restricted network are derived from large deviation theory arguments and validated against numerical simulations. Extensions to realistic settings are considered, and individual line failure models are aggregated into a Markov model of cascading failure inspired by chemical kinetics. Cascades are generated by traversing a graph composed of weighted edges representing transitions to degraded network topologies. Numerical results indicate that the Markov model can produce cascades with qualitative power-law properties similar to those observed in empirical cascades.

Kinetic Monte Carlo, rare events, Cascading Failur↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Spatiotemporal Evolution of Granular Microslip Precursors to Laboratory Earthquakes

Laboratory earthquake experiments provide important observational constraints for our understanding of earthquake physics. Here we leverage continuous waveform data from a network of piezoceramic sensors to study the spatial and temporal evolution of microslip activity during a shear experiment with synthetic fault gouge. We combine machine learning techniques with ray theoretical seismology to detect, associate, and locate tens of thousands of microslip events within the gouge layer. Microslip activity is concentrated near the center of the system but is highly variable in space and time. While microslip activity rate increases as failure approaches, the spatiotemporal evolution can differ substantially between stick-slip cycles. These results illustrate that even within a single, well-constrained laboratory experiment, the dynamics of earthquake nucleation can be highly complex.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of Thermal Conditions of DED With FEA Metal Additive Simulation

This paper presents the integration of wire-arc additive manufacturing (WAAM) using Gas Metal Arc Welding (GMAW) into a machine tool to create a retrofit hybrid computer numeric control (CNC) machine tool. GMAW, along with other direct energy deposition systems, has the capacity to deposit material faster than the excess thermal energy can dissipate. This results in the need to allow the part to cool between consecutive layers, which is the most time-consuming part of the additive process. Finite element analysis (FEA) was used in conjunction with monitored build plate surface temperatures during deposition samples to improve adequate dwell time prediction and to develop a cooling system. A deposition was completed where no dwell time was used and the build plate along with the machine table temperatures were monitored. A second deposition was completed where only one bead was deposited and the traverse speed was increased. The GMAW welder was mounted on a 3-axis CNC machine where two square deposition samples were completed. A FEA model was designed and verified using the monitored samples. The model will be used to determine improved depositions speeds and whether forced cooling would allow for an increased deposition rate without structural failure. It was determined the FEA software can be used to accurately model and predict the thermal response of WAAM AM components.

Heinrich, Lauren↗

DOE OSTI2023

Utah FORGE 5-2557: Fluid and Temperature in Fracture Mechanics and Coupled THMC Processes - Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Role of Fluid and Temperature in Fracture Mechanics and Coupled Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical-Chemical (THMC) Processes for Enhanced Geothermal Systems project by Purdue University, presented by Distinguished Professor of Physics & Astronomy, Laura J. Pyrak-Nolte. The project's objective was to develop and validate a macroscopic model that accounts for local deformation/frictional behavior, seismic/aseismic behavior, chemical reactions, and determine the adequacy of classic Coulomb failure vs. rate-and-state friction. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on September 8, 2023. The workshop provided a valuable opportunity to explore the progress made in each of the 17 Research and Development projects funded under Solicitation 2020-1 which aim to enhance our understanding of the crucial factors influencing the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) reservoirs and resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Utah FORGE 5-2557: Role of Fluid and Temperature in Fracture Mechanics and Couples THMC Processes for Enhanced Geothermal Systems - 2024 Annual Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Role of Fluid and Temperature in Fracture Mechanics and Couples THMC Processes for Enhanced Geothermal Systems by Purdue University, presented by Laura Pyrak-Nolte. This video slide presentation describes the development and validation of a macroscopic model that can account for local deformation/friction behavior, seismic/aseismic behavior, chemical reactions, and determine the adequacy of classic Coulomb failure vs. rate-and-state friction. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on August 13, 2024.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cell-level reliability testing procedures for CIGS photovoltaics

The reliability of photovoltaics is commonly studied at the module level. Many reliability problems originate from module attributes, such as metal interconnections to cells, junction boxes. However, significant work in reliability can also be done prior to module design. Testing for reliability earlier in the research cycle increases the probability of avoiding common module reliability problems before cell changes are implemented on a large scale. Cell-level reliability studies can thus lower the rates of module failures in the field and provide confidence to investors that new technologies will perform as advertised. This report summarizes how we investigated three reliability concerns in Cu(In,Ga)Se 2 (CIGS) photovoltaics at the cell level: metastability, shading-induced damage, and potential-induced degradation (PID). We find that examining these concerns required developing robust measurement protocols including the fabrication of novel testing structures. This information will allow readers to incorporate sound metrics for investigating reliability phenomena and aid their studies of cell and module reliability improvements.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Weakly Informed Priors for FLEX Data

On behalf of the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has reviewed the development and use of “weakly informed prior” (WIP) probability distributions to obtain industry-wide failure probability and rate distributions for portable “FLEX” equipment, as documented in the Pressurized Water Reactor Owner’s Group (PWROG) report, FLEX Equipment Data Collection and Analysis (PWROG 18043-P) by MM Degonish. The review includes a description of the methods used by the PWROG analysts. It also includes an implementation of those methods for comparison purposes and an implementation of two constrained-noninformative (CN) distributions for further WIP comparisons. The report documents several issues that the review identified in the development of the WIP distributions. They relate to the quality and representativeness of the current portable “FLEX” component data, the choice of informed distributions for related installed components, and the lack of verification for the factors chosen to weaken the information from the installed components. Two errors occurred in the computations: the posterior distribution of the WIP was used to modify the WIP itself, resulting in a lack of independence between the WIP and the data; and an error was made in the conversion of WIP mean and variance values to beta distributions. The INL reviewers think the WIP distributions presented in the report are untenable for use in risk assessments at the present time because of these issues.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Miniature Beryllium Split-Hopkinson Pressure Bars for Extending the Range of Achievable Strain-Rates

Conventional Split Hopkinson Pressure Bars (SHPB) or “Kolsky” bars are often used for determining the high-rate compressive yield and failure strength of materials. However, for experiments generating very high strain-rates (>10 3 /s) miniaturization of the setup is often required for minimizing the effects of elastic wave dispersion in order to enable the inference of decreasingly short loading events from the data. Miniature aluminum and steel bars are often sufficient for meeting these requirements. However, for high enough strain-rates, miniaturization of steel or aluminum Kolsky bars may require prohibitively small diameter bars and test specimens that could become inappropriate for inferring representative properties of materials with large grain size relative to the test specimen size. The use of a beryllium Kolsky bar setup is expected to enable high rates to be accessible with larger diameter bars/specimen combinations due to the inherent physical properties of beryllium, which are expected to minimize the effects of elastic wave dispersion. For this reason, a series of beryllium Kolsky bars have been developed, and, in this paper, the dispersion characteristics of these bars are measured and compare the data with those of similarly sized 7075-T6 aluminum and C350 maraging steel. The results, which agree well with the theory, show no appreciable frequency dependence of the elastic wavespeed in the data from the beryllium bars, demonstrating its advantage over aluminum and steel in application to Kolsky bars.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

More Than Recycling: How Should We Define Circularity Goals for PV in a Global Energy Transition? Preprint

Energy transition to carbon-free electricity is a crucial pillar of the Circular Economy. Renewable energy reduces environmental impacts and decarbonizes the production of other goods. But, manufacturing renewable energy sources, such as photovoltaic (PV) modules, require energy inputs that are currently carbon intensive. So, how do we decarbonize and circularize these critical technologies to achieve a sustainable energy transition? This work proposes that effective capacity-the installed capacity accounting for degradation rates and failures-is a critical metric to evaluate renewable energy technologies on the path toward circular economy and energy transitions. Our analyses also emphasize the importance of examining a suite of metrics incorporating mass and energy flows to identify potential tradeoffs and inform design or lifecycle management decisions holistically.

bifacial↗

DOE OSTI2023

More Than Recycling: The Importance of Multiple Metrics for a Circular Economy for PV in the Energy Transition

bifacial↗

DOE OSTI2024

A prediction model of failure threshold for shear deformation in a Zr-based bulk metallic glass

The failure of bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) during plastic deformation at room temperature is abrupt and instantaneous, while the analysis of precursor information based on avalanche events helps predict catastrophic failure. An acoustic emission (AE) signal can provide accurate precursor information for material failure, due to its sensitive and high fast calculation ability. In the current study, AE monitoring tests are carried out during uniaxial compression tests of BMGs at different strain rates. The AE experimental failure threshold, E max , is proposed on the basis of AE cumulative energy, which reflects the intensity of damage evolution at different loading conditions. Compared with the critical shear band velocity (CSBV) associated with stick-slip dynamics of serrated flow, E max is a more sensitive failure parameter since it is connected with the local microscopic changes that occur during the material response process. Here, the E max is obtained prior to reaching the CSBV since the calculation of these two avalanches analysis focuses on the different stages of shear band growth. In particular, AE events are related to the “dry” friction process in the first stage, however, the CSBV is responsible for the “viscous” glide in the second stage. Therefore, Emax is not affected by the complex interactions between the shear bands during the stick-slip process. The maximum avalanche of serrated flow, S max , is proposed as the experimental failure threshold, which depends on the applied strain rate as S max ~ $\dot{ε}$ –λ . According to the relationship of E max and S max , the theoretical failure threshold, E max , follows a criterion E max = 2545$\dot{ε}$ –λ - 4468, where λ is equivalent to 0.15 for this work. Finally, combining the different calculations and AE measurements, this model gives new insights to predict the deformation failure behavior of Zr-based BMGs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Wind turbine main bearing rating lives as determined by IEC 61400‐1 and ISO 281: A critical review and exploratory case study

Abstract This paper studies the rating lives of wind turbine main bearings, as determined by the IEC 61400‐1 and ISO 281 standards. A critical review of relevant bearing life theory and turbine design requirements is provided, including discussion on possible shortcomings such as the existence (or not) of the bearing fatigue load limit and the validity of assuming linear damage accumulation. A detailed exploratory case study is then undertaken to determine rating lives for two models of main bearing in a 1.5 MW wind turbine. Rating life assessment is carried out under different conditions, including various combinations of main bearing temperature, wind field characteristics, lubricant viscosity, and contamination levels. Rating lives are found to be sufficiently above the desired 20‐year design life for both bearing models under expected operating conditions. For the larger bearing, operational loads are shown to be below or close to the bearing fatigue load limit a vast majority of the time. Key sensitivities for rating life values are temperature and contamination. Overall, the results of this study suggest that an ISO 281 rating life assessment does not account for reported rates of main bearing failures in 1 to 3 MW wind turbines. It is recommended that a similar analysis be undertaken for ISO/TS 16281 rating lives, along with further efforts to identify principal root causes of main bearing failures in future work, possibly leading to a new application standard specific to this component. It is also recommended that the impacts of partial wake impingement on main bearing rating lives are investigated.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Experimental and Computational Studies of Stress Corrosion Cracking of Alloys 308/309 and 82/182 Weldments in Corrosive and Radiation Environment

The goal of the project was to determine factors that influence SCC and IASCC in weldments found in LWR nuclear power plants. We focused on a SA508-304L SS weldment fabricated by EPRI using gas tungsten arc welding and used an aggressive BWR normal water chemistry (NWC) immersion environment. This weldment used 309L butter and 308L groove filler material. The microstructure of the 309L butter was non-uniform, exhibiting a 20–30μm thick martensitic layer closest to the SA508 interface, a 1–4 mm thick single γ austenite phase dilution zone, and a γ–δ duplex region extending to the 308L groove filler. The 308L groove filler had an entirely γ–δ duplex microstructure. Two approximately 1-inch thick 304L and SA508 plates approximately 12 by 6 square inches were joined using standard nuclear grade welding techniques. This included a post weld heat treatment of the 309L butter after application, a 0.32 cm fit-up root opening, and 57 bead lines of 308L groove filler applied in 18 layers. A 60 degree weld bevel angle was used and the 309L butter was 1.5 cm thick. Displacement cascade damage was induced using proton irradiation at the Michigan Ion Beam Laboratory. The incident proton energy was 2 MeV, the sample temperature was 360 ºC, and the calculated dpa value at 10 μm (60% of the Bragg peak depth of ~18 μm) was 5 dpa using the quick Kinchin-Pease model. Proton irradiation to this damage level required approximately 125 hours of beam time. Two types of samples were irradiated, tensile specimens and TEM bars. Samples were selected from all regions of the weldment, including the SA508-309L butter interface, the 309L-308L interface, and 308L-304L interface. The stainless steel alloys (304L, 308L, and 309L) within the heat affected zone are characterized by a duplex skeletal morphology of δ-ferrite and γ-austenite resulting from the recrystallization associated with weld fabrication. Approximately 7 to 8 mm of length along the specimen was irradiated. The gauge volume surfaces were mechanically polished and then electro-polished to remove mechanical damage from the mechanical polishing step prior to irradiation. Immersion tests were performed in a recirculating autoclave under BWR NWC conditions (2000 ppb wt. dissolved oxygen, neutral pH, 288 ºC, 10 MPa, and inlet water conductivity <100 nS/cm) to accelerate corrosion. Constant strain rate tests were performed either to failure or to approximately 5% strain. Strain rates of 10 -7 to 10 -6 mm/mm/s were used and typical immersion testing required four to six weeks to achieve failure or strains near 5%. Analysis primarily used advanced electron microscopy techniques of FIB lift out specimens.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prognostic analysis of high-flow nasal cannula therapy and non-invasive ventilation in mild to moderate hypoxemia patients and construction of a machine learning model for 48-h intubation prediction—a retrospective analysis of the MIMIC database

Background This study aims to investigate the clinical outcome between high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) and non-invasive ventilation (NIV) therapy in mild to moderate hypoxemic patients on the first ICU day and to develop a predictive model of 48-h intubation. Methods The study included adult patients from the MIMIC III and IV databases who first initiated HFNC or NIV therapy due to mild to moderate hypoxemia (100 < PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 300). The 48-h and 30-day intubation rates were compared using cross-sectional and survival analysis. Nine machine learning and six ensemble algorithms were deployed to construct the 48-h intubation predictive models, of which the optimal model was determined by its prediction accuracy. The top 10 risk and protective factors were identified using the Shapley interpretation algorithm. Result A total of 123,042 patients were screened, of which, 673 were from the MIMIC IV database for ventilation therapy comparison (HFNC n = 363, NIV n = 310) and 48-h intubation predictive model construction (training dataset n = 471, internal validation set n = 202) and 408 were from the MIMIC III database for external validation. The NIV group had a lower intubation rate (23.1% vs. 16.1%, p = 0.001), ICU 28-day mortality (18.5% vs. 11.6%, p = 0.014), and in-hospital mortality (19.6% vs. 11.9%, p = 0.007) compared to the HFNC group. Survival analysis showed that the total and 48-h intubation rates were not significantly different. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model (internal and external validation set AUROC 0.878, 0.726) had the best predictive accuracy performance. The model Shapley algorithm showed Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), acute physiology scores (APSIII), the minimum and maximum lactate value as risk factors for early failure and age, the maximum PaCO 2 and PH value, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), the minimum PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and PaO 2 value as protective factors. Conclusion NIV was associated with lower intubation rate and ICU 28-day and in-hospital mortality. Further survival analysis reinforced that the effect of NIV on the intubation rate might partly be attributed to the other impact factors. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model may assist clinicians in making clinical decisions, and early organ function support to improve patients’ SOFA, APSIII, GCS, PaCO 2 , PaO 2 , PH, PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and lactate values can reduce the early failure rate and improve patient prognosis.

Fu, Wei↗