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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Clustering and Classification of Outage Patterns with Insights into their Links to Extreme Events

At a global level extreme events have increased in both scale and impact. These events have the potential to affect the electrical grid infrastructure and cause a wide range of outages, which can lead to a disruption in daily patterns, cost millions of dollars and also the loss of life. Currently, to track these outage events there have been various approaches developed ranging from regional to national level quantifications for what defines an outage. However, this variation in methods can potentially lead to subjective decision-making and a lack of proper management in relation to the event. While previous work has made strides in determining spatio-temporal patterns, minimal attention has been given to the type and number of outages an area may be exposed to. The differences in incurred cost and the overall severity of an event between a transformer box malfunction and a hurricane are drastic, and by finding historical signals, we can allow for more efficient management, potentially saving lives and millions of dollars. Here, we leverage unsupervised machine learning techniques to delineate outage patterns among 22 counties within the United States and find that there are clear, segregated clusters (0.93 silhouette) of data which are related by event behavior and underlying cause. This finding will allow for energy stakeholders, policy makers, and researchers to gain a deeper understanding of the extent and severity of historic events and to better prepare for electrical grid infrastructure planning and management.

Koob, Benjamin [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2025

On Finding Black Holes in Photometric Microlensing Surveys

There are expected to be millions of isolated black holes in the galaxy resulting from the deaths of massive stars. Measuring the abundance and properties of this remnant population would shed light on the end stages of stellar evolution and the evolution paths of black hole systems. Detecting isolated black holes is currently only possible via gravitational microlensing, which has so far yielded one definitive detection. The difficulty in finding microlensing black holes lies in having to choose a small subset of events, based on characteristics of their light curves, to allocate expensive and scarce follow-up resources to confirm the identity of the lens. Current methods either rely on simple cuts in parameter space without using the full distribution information or are only effective on small subsets of events. In this paper, we present a new lens classification method. The classifier takes in posterior constraints on light-curve parameters and combines them with a Galactic simulation to estimate the lens class probability. This method is flexible and can be used with any set of microlensing light-curve parameters, making it applicable to large samples of events. We make this classification framework available via the popclass Python package. We apply the classifier to ~10,000 microlensing events from the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment survey and find 23 high-probability black hole candidates. Our classifier also suggests that the only known isolated black hole is an observational outlier, according to current Galactic models, and the allocation of astrometric follow-up on this event was a high-risk strategy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neutron-antineutron oscillation sensitivity study at DUNE

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) aims to measure neutrino oscillations as well as search for beyond the standard model physics such as baryon number violating (BNV) processes. DUNE will use a 70 kt Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) located more than 1 km underground. A promising BNV process is neutron-antineutron oscillation ($n \rightarrow \bar{n}$) which, if discovered, would offer unique insight into the baryon asymmetry of the universe. We are developing a classification algorithm that separates $n \rightarrow \bar{n}$ events from major background atmospheric neutrino interactions using DUNE far detector simulations. We will perform the classification of signals and backgrounds by analyzing key features such as the multiplicity, isotropy, and kinematics of the reconstructed events. In the future, this algorithm can be used to obtain the sensitivity of the DUNE detectors to the neutron-antineutron oscillation lifetime.

Wheeler, Justin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Signal discrimination for neutron-antineutron oscillation sensitivity study at DUNE

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) aims to measure neutrino oscillations as well as search for beyond the standard model physics such as baryon number violating (BNV) processes. DUNE will use a 70 kt Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) located more than 1 km underground. A promising BNV process is neutron-antineutron oscillation $\left(n\rightarrow\bar{n}\right)$ which, if discovered, would offer unique insight into the baryon asymmetry of the universe. We are developing a classification algorithm that separates $n\rightarrow\bar{n}$ events from major background atmospheric neutrino interactions using DUNE far detector simulations. We will perform the classification of signals and backgrounds by analyzing key features such as the multiplicity, isotropy, and kinematics of the reconstructed events. In the future, this algorithm can be used to obtain the sensitivity of the DUNE detectors to the neutron-antineutron oscillation lifetime.

Wheeler, Justin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anomaly Detection and Mitigation for Dynamic Frequency Regulation in Hydropower-Battery Systems

Hydropower operators and energy storage providers are increasingly interested in participating in frequency regulation services, driven by the incentives offered by independent system operators, such as the PJM Interconnection. This transition, however, unfolds against the backdrop of a modernizing and rapidly digitizing power grid, exposing the integrated legacy infrastructure to a multitude of cybersecurity threats. This work presents an approach for developing an anomaly detection and mitigation system to address cybersecurity challenges during the participation of a hydropower-integrated battery energy storage system (BESS) in a frequency regulation market. The applied anomaly detector utilizes machine learning algorithms to provide detailed classification of cyber-physical events. Later, the applied mitigation system triggers predefined corrective actions to minimize the impact of data integrity attacks on the regulation market and system stability. We evaluated the proposed approach on a hydropower-integrated BESS topology, specifically analyzing the slow regulation signal (Reg A) coming from the PJM market. Our simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach performs well in detecting data integrity attacks within the allocated time frame and also minimizes the system's transient instability during the participation of hydropower and BESS in the regulation market.

battery energy storage system↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Cyber-Physical Anomaly Detection for Wide-Area Protection Using Machine Learning

Wide-area protection scheme (WAPS) provides system-wide protection by detecting and mitigating small and large-scale disturbances that are difficult to resolve using local protection schemes. As this protection scheme is evolving from a substation-based distributed remedial action scheme (DRAS) to the control center-based centralized RAS (CRAS), it presents severe challenges to their cybersecurity because of its heavy reliance on an insecure grid communication, and its compromise would lead to system failure. This article presents an architecture and methodology for developing a cyber-physical anomaly detection system (CPADS) that utilizes synchrophasor measurements and properties of network packets to detect data integrity and communication failure attacks on measurement and control signals in CRAS. The proposed machine leaning-based methodology applies a rules-based approach to select relevant input features, utilizes variational mode decomposition (VMD) and decision tree (DT) algorithms to develop multiple classification models, and performs final event identification using a rules-based decision logic. Here, we have evaluated the proposed methodology of CPADS using the IEEE 39 bus system for several performance measures (accuracy, recall, precision, and F-measure) in a cyber-physical testbed environment. Furthermore, our experimental results reveal that the proposed algorithm (VMD-DT) of CPADS outperforms the existing machine learning classifiers during noisy and noise-free measurements while incurring an acceptable processing overhead.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anomaly Detection and Mitigation for Dynamic Frequency Regulation in Hydropower-Battery Systems: Preprint

Hydropower operators and energy storage providers are increasingly interested in participating in frequency regulation services, driven by the incentives offered by independent system operators, such as the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection (PJM), in a competitive electricity market. This transition, however, unfolds against the backdrop of a modernizing and rapidly digitizing power grid, exposing the integrated legacy infrastructure and vulnerable communication networks to a multitude of cybersecurity threats. These evolving threats not only endanger grid operations but also have the potential to trigger cascading disruptions across the broader grid network and influence regulation markets. This work presents an approach for developing an anomaly detection and mitigation system to address cybersecurity challenges during the participation of a hydropower-integrated battery energy storage system (BESS) in a frequency regulation market. The applied anomaly detector utilizes machine learning algorithms to provide detailed classification of cyber-physical events and provide a comprehensive situation awareness to grid operators. Later, the applied mitigation system triggers predefined corrective actions to minimize the impact of data integrity attacks on the regulation market and system stability. We evaluated the proposed approach on a fully active BESS topology using the slow regulation signal (Reg A) coming from the PJM market. Our simulation results reveal that the proposed approach performs well in detecting data integrity attacks within the allocated time frame and also minimizes the system's instability and economic loss during the participation of hydropower and BESS in the regulation market.

battery energy storage system↗
DOE OSTI2024

popclass

popclass is a lightweight python package that allows fast, probabilistic classification of the lens of a microlensing event given the event's posterior distribution and a model of the Galaxy. popclass provides the bridge between Galactic simulation and lens classification, an interface to common Bayesian inference libraries, and the ability for users to flexibly specify their own Galactic model and classification parameters.

Mcgill, Peter↗
DOE OSTI2022

Combinatorial Evaluation of Physical Feature Engineering, Classical Machine Learning, and Deep Learning Models for Synchrophasor Data at Scale

A major objective of the project was to train and evaluate the effectiveness of multiple event and anomaly detection, identification and classification deep temporal learning models for processing of real-time phasor measurement unit (PMU) data streams. A vast dataset, consisting of two years of phasor measurements from all three U.S. Interconnections, was curated and released by the Department of Energy (DOE) through Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The dataset also included an event log that provided event times and types (e.g. generator trips, line trips, planned service events, transformer operations, etc.). Our analysis of this dataset addressed six (6) of the eleven (11) research priorities identified in Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA) DE-FOA-0001861 “Big Data Analysis of Synchrophasor Data” (FOA 1861). Rather than being limited to pre-determined specific algorithms, this project relied on the uniquely structured, highly performant underlying time series database capabilities of the PredictiveGrid platform to assess the vast dataset utilizing a wide variety of algorithms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Data-Driven Framework for Power System Event Type Identification via Safe Semi-Supervised Techniques

Herein this paper investigates the use of phasor measurement unit (PMU) data with deep learning techniques to construct real-time event identification models for transmission networks. Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources represents a great opportunity to achieve decarbonization, as well as challenges in systematic situational awareness. When high-resolution PMU data and sufficient manually recorded event labels are available, the power event identification problem is defined as a statistical classification problem that can be solved by numerous cutting-edge classifiers. However, in real grids, collecting tremendous high-quality event labels is quite expensive. Utilities frequently have a large number of event records without in-depth details (i.e., unlabeled events). To bridge this gap, we propose a novel semi-supervised learning-based method to improve the performance of event classifiers trained with a limited number of labeled events by exploiting the information from massive unlabeled events. In other words, compared to existing data-driven methods, our method requires only a small portion of labeled data to achieve a similar level of accuracy. Meanwhile, this work discusses and addresses the performance degradation caused by class distribution mismatch between the training set and the real applications. Based on the proposed safe learning mechanism, our model does not directly use all unlabeled events during model training, but selectively uses them through a comprehensive evaluation procedure. Numerical studies on a sizable PMU dataset have been used to validate the performance of the proposed method.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Near-Real-Time Statistical Analysis and Visualization of Streamflow from a Deep-Learning Rainfall-Runoff Model

Near-real-time (NRT) streamflow data are critical importance for timely water resources management. Here, we developed an open-source tool, FlowStats, for NRT streamflow analysis and visualization in Germany, based on NRT meteorological data from the German Weather Service and simulated streamflow from a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). The LSTM model achieved very good overall performance, median NSE of 0.80 for the test period across 1,479 catchments. FlowStats provides options for deriving various streamflow statistics, from normal and abnormal streamflow detection to drought and flood analyses. An example analysis from FlowStats revealed widespread below-normal to extreme low-flow conditions across Germany from March to May 2025, which weakened from June to September 2025. Drought analysis for September 2025 highlighted severe to extreme drought conditions in northwestern Germany, while flood classifications indicated that high-flow events occurred in southwestern Germany. FlowStats can be used for various hydrological assessments to support water resources management.

Hydrological modeling↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimized allocation method of the VSC-MTDC system for frequency regulation reserves considering the cost

In recent years, the interconnection of asynchronous power grids through the VSC-MTDC system has been proposed and extensively studied in light of the potential benefits of economical bulk power exchanges and frequency regulation reserves sharing. This paper proposed an optimized allocation method for sharing frequency regulation reserves among the interconnected power systems and the corresponding frequency regulation control of the VSC-MTDC system under emergency frequency deviation events. Firstly, the frequency regulation reserve classification is proposed. In the classification, the available frequency response capacity reserves of each interconnection are divided into commercial reserves and regular reserves. While the commercial reserves are procured through long-term contracts, the regular reserves are purchased based on market prices of frequency regulation services. Secondly, based on the proposed frequency regulation reserve classification, a novel frequency regulation control is then introduced for the VSC-MTDC system. This control method could minimize the costs of the disturbed power grid for the needed frequency response supports from the other power grids. Simulation verifications are performed on a modified IEEE 39 bus system and a highly reduced power system model representing the North American grids. The simulation verification indicates that the developed frequency regulation control significantly reduced ancillary service costs of the disturbed power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Weakly supervised anomaly detection with event-level variables

We introduce a new topology for weakly supervised anomaly detection searches, diobject plus X. In this topology, one looks for a resonance decaying to two standard model particles produced in association with other anomalous event activity (X). This additional activity is used for classification. We demonstrate how anomaly detection techniques which have been developed for dijet searches focusing on jet substructure anomalies can be applied to event-level anomaly detection in this topology. To robustly capture event-level features of multiparticle kinematics, we employ new physically motivated variables derived from the geometric structure of a collision’s phase space manifold. As a proof of concept, we explore the application of this approach to several benchmark signals in the di-𝜏 and di-𝜇 plus X final states. We demonstrate that our anomaly detection approach can reach discovery-level significances for signals that would be missed in a conventional bump-hunt approach.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scalable Hybrid Classification-Regression Solution for High-Frequency Nonintrusive Load Monitoring

Residential buildings with the ability to monitor and control their net-load (sum of load and generation) can provide valuable flexibility to power grid operators. We present a novel multiclass nonintrusive load monitoring (NILM) approach that enables effective net-load monitoring capabilities at high-frequency with minimal additional equipment and cost. The proposed machine learning based solution provides accurate multiclass state predictions while operating at a faster timescale (able to provide a prediction for each 60- Hz ac cycle used in US power grid) without relying on event-detection techniques. We also introduce an innovative hybrid classification-regression method that allows for the prediction of not only load on/off states but also individual load operating power levels. A test bed with eight residential appliances is used for validating the NILM approach. Results show that the overall method has high accuracy, good scaling and generalization properties.

feature extraction↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-dimensional anomaly detection with radiative return in $\mathcal{e}$⁺$\mathcal{e}$⁻ collisions

Experiments at a future $\mathcal{e}$⁺$\mathcal{e}$⁻ collider will be able to search for new particles with masses below the nominal centre-of-mass energy by analyzing collisions with initial-state radiation (radiative return). We show that machine learning methods that use imperfect or missing training labels can achieve sensitivity to generic new particle production in radiative return events. In addition to presenting an application of the classification without labels (CWoLa) search method in $\mathcal{e}$⁺$\mathcal{e}$⁻ collisions, our study combines weak supervision with variable-dimensional information by deploying a deep sets neural network architecture. We have also investigated some of the experimental aspects of anomaly detection in radiative return events and discuss these in the context of future detector design.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Non-Intrusive Appliance Identification with Appliance-Specific Networks

The problem of noninstrusive load monitoring (NILM) is usually formulated as a single-channel blind source separation task, whose successful solution enable fast and convenient load identification and energy disaggregation. When applied at test time, NILM algorithms aim to identify the operating characteristics of individual appliances from an aggregate power measurement of the entire house. Recent advances in deep learning gave rise to many methods that mostly focus on learning a direct mapping from aggregate measurement to individual appliance power. However, these methods are not only computationally expensive, but they often suffer from overfitting and do not generalize very well. In this article, we propose a novel NILM method that leverages advances in statistical learning that have not been properly applied in this domain before. The proposed method consists of three stages: first, a Bayesian nonparametric learning-based approach for appliance state extraction; second, synthetic minority oversampling technique for data augmentation and mitigating the heavy imbalance in switching events; and third, appliance-specific lightweight long short-term memory networks for status classification for each appliance. Here, we adopt a “differential” input (the difference before and after the switching event) to reduce the complexity of network training and make the proposed method robust to multiappliance switching events. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, achieving superior performance when compared to recent methods. An ablation study is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of each module of our method. Finally, we investigate the quality of generated synthetic samples.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

VIC-Global Parameter Dataset Sensitivity with the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model: Evaluating the importance of dynamic land surface parameters when using the VIC-Global parameter dataset

Accurate prediction of runoff is essential to water resources management, flood risk assessment, and ecosystem protection. However, many hydrological models still have relatively substantial limitations when representing the influence of land use and land cover (LULC) on runoff generation and routing. Changes in LULC, such as deforestation, urban expansion, agricultural intensification, and wetland loss, have been shown to alter the water balance at the land surface through fundamental hydrologic processes (e.g., interception, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and soil storage). However, it remains an open question what the exact magnitude and timing of these impacts are for the spatial and temporal scales commonly used in engineering applications. In this analysis we focus on one aspect of recent LULC change for assessing human impacts, which is urbanization. Specifically we seek to determine the impacts of urbanization on the magnitude and timing of surface runoff and baseflow in HUC-12 basins in Clark County, Nevada which has experienced rapid urbanization. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a widely used off-the-shelf dataset of land surface parameters, VIC-Global, both of which have been commonly used in the past for water and energy balance modeling for large scale hydrologic studies. We examine two scenarios where the first scenario removes all urbanized land cover and parameterizes those areas of the basins as barren or open shrubland. The second scenario tests the opposite case where all areas of the basins are classified as urban regardless of their present classification. The results from the VIC model show there is a low sensitivity for daily surface runoff between scenarios. The daily baseflow values indicate similar low sensitivity to the classification change during specific periods, but then have substantial differences during other period when large precipitation events are occurring. This is likely due to the assumed parameter values for the urban land cover classification made by the VIC-Global dataset. Using a static land cover parameterization is reasonable for large domain hydrology models that are being used for near-term planning horizons (<30 years). However, longer planning horizons where feedbacks between the atmosphere and land surface are important, especially in transient climate situations, considerations for how to update land surface parameters should be incorporated.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Search for charged-lepton flavour violation in top quark interactions with an up-type quark, a muon, and a $τ$ lepton in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

A search for charged-lepton flavour violation (CLFV) in top quark (t) production and decay is presented. The search uses proton-proton collision data corresponding to 138 fb$^{-1}$ collected with the CMS experiment at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV. The signal consists of the production of a single top quark via a CLFV interaction or top quark pair production followed by a CLFV decay. The analysis selects events containing a hadronically decaying $τ$ lepton and a muon of opposite electric charge, as well as at least three jets, one of which is identified as originating from the fragmentation of a bottom quark. Machine learning classification techniques are used to distinguish signal from standard model background events. The results of this search are consistent with the standard model expectations. The upper limits at 95% confidence level on the branching fraction $\mathcal{B}$ for CLFV top quark decays to a muon, a $τ$ lepton, and an up or a charm quark are set at $\mathcal{B}$(t $\to$ $μτ$u) $\lt$ (0.04, 0.08, and 0.12) $\times$ 10$^{-6}$, and $\mathcal{B}$(t $\to$ $μτ$c) $\lt$ (0.81, 1.71, and 2.05) $\times$ 10$^{-6}$ for scalar, vector, and tensor-like operators, respectively.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗