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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Seasonal Controls of CO 2 and CH 4 Dynamics in a Temporarily Flooded Subtropical Wetland

Subtropical and tropical wetlands play a prominent role in the global carbon (C) cycle; yet factors that influence their C fluxes remain uncertain. We collected measurements from a temporarily flooded subtropical wetland over 3 years to investigate environmental drivers impacting CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes. The wetland was a sink of CO 2 (-469 to -380 g C-CO 2 · m -2 · year -1 ) and a source of CH 4 (25.1 to 32.1 g C-CH 4 · m -2 · year -1 ) to the atmosphere. Dry season CH 4 emissions represented 41 to 49% of the annual budget, reflecting the importance of continuous CH 4 flux measurements. Gross primary productivity (GPP) increased with temperature and radiation, and the influence of VPD on GPP varied with soil inundation. Higher water tables decreased Reco and increased GPP, and a higher GPP in turn lead to enhanced R eco likely through enhancements of GPP on autotrophic respiration. This suggests that the impact of the water table on R eco depends on the cancelling effects of hydrology and GPP. Emissions of CH 4 increased with soil temperature, water table, and GPP until soils were inundated at which point temperature and GPP became the main drivers. Water table and temperature influenced GPP and CH 4 fluxes, and increases in GPP directly enhanced CH 4 emissions. In addition to impacting C fluxes directly through water table depth, hydrology also determined the hierarchy of the dominance of factors controlling C fluxes and their response. The positive climate forcing of subtropical wetlands may be dictated by plant-mediated and climate interactions, with hydrological factors playing a major role in determining the greenhouse gas sink or source strength of subtropical wetlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Carbon Thaw Rate Doubles When Accounting for Subsidence in a Permafrost Warming Experiment

Permafrost soils, which are perennially frozen soils found throughout cold regions, contain vast quantities of carbon and ice. When permafrost thaws, carbon can be lost to the atmosphere, contributing to climate change. This means it is important to track permafrost thaw, which is often done using active layer thickness, or the depth of the seasonally thawed surface layer of soil. However, ice volume can be lost from thawing permafrost, causing the soil surface to drop. Conventional measurements do not account for this surface drop, and the rate of thaw could therefore be underestimated. We found that experimentally warmed soils dropped at a rate of 6 cm year-1, mostly due to loss of ice volume and also due to the loss of soil mass. When accounting for the change in soil surface height over time, the full depth of permafrost thaw was 49% greater. The increased depth of thaw resulted in more than twice as much carbon being thawed as was estimated with standard methods that did not account for subsidence. These findings suggest that permafrost is thawing more quickly than long-term records indicate and that this could result in additional carbon release contributing to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimating the Impact of Seep Methane Oxidation on Ocean pH and Dissolved Inorganic Radiocarbon Along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Bight

Ongoing ocean warming can release methane (CH 4 ) currently stored in ocean sediments asfree gas and gas hydrates. Once dissolved in ocean waters, this CH 4 can be oxidized to carbon dioxide(CO 2 ). While it has been hypothesized that the CO 2 produced from aerobic CH4oxidation could enhanceocean acidification, a previous study conducted in Hudson Canyon shows that CH 4 oxidation has a smallshort-term influence on ocean pH and dissolved inorganic radiocarbon. Here we expand upon thatinvestigation to assess the impact of widespread CH 4 seepage on CO 2 chemistry and possible accumulationof this carbon injection along 234 km of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Bight. Consistent with the estimates fromHudson Canyon, we demonstrate that a small fraction of ancient CH 4 -derived carbon is being assimilatedinto the dissolved inorganic radiocarbon (mean fraction of 0.5 ± 0.4%). The areas with the highest fractionsof ancient carbon coincide with elevated CH 4 concentration and active gas seepage. This suggests thataerobic CH 4 oxidation has a greater influence on the dissolved inorganic pool in areas where CH 4 concentrations are locally elevated, instead of displaying a cumulative effect downcurrent from widespreadgroupings of CH 4 seeps. Afirst-order approximation of the input rate of ancient-derived dissolved inorganiccarbon (DIC) into the waters overlying the northern U.S. Mid-Atlantic Bight further suggests thatoxidation of ancient CH 4 -derived carbon is not negligible on the global scale and could contribute todeepwater acidification over longer time scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

High-Resolution Measurement of Soil Thermal Properties and Moisture Content Using a Novel Heated Fiber Optics Approach

Hydrological parameters are scale dependent. Efficient monitoring techniques capable of measuring hydrological parameters, such as soil moisture content (θ), over a wide range of spatial scales are essential for understanding the complexity of water and energy movement across the landscape. Techniques to measure θ over spatial scales in the range from centimeters to thousands of meters, however, are sorely lacking. Recent improvements in the distributed temperature sensing (DTS) technology supported the development of novel techniques to fill that gap. However, improvements in the accuracy and applicability of DTS techniques are still needed. This study investigates the possibility of improving the accuracy of the fiber optics dual-probe heat-pulse (FO-DPHP) DTS technique by using a new design to maintain the spacing between the FO-DPHP probes and by introducing a novel data interpretation approach. The accuracy of the novel FO-DPHP design was tested at different θ in a sand column experiment. The FO-DPHP measurements obtained using traditional and novel data interpretation approaches were compared against independent measurements from several calibrated soil water content (EC5) sensors. Monte-Carlo analyses were also performed to assess the impact of DTS measurement errors on the accuracy achieved using the data interpretation approaches. The novel design and data interpretation approach allowed for accurate measurements of soil thermal properties and θ without the need to perform a hard-to-achieve soil-specific calibration. Measured θ had mean errors and standard deviations <0.03 and <0.01 m 3 m -3 , respectively, for moisture conditions ranging from dry to near saturation. The standard deviation in the measured heat capacity was <0.01 MJ m -3 K -1 .

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hyporheic Exchange Driven by Submerged Rigid Vegetation: A Modeling Study

Flow-vegetation interaction affects fluid flow hydraulics and associated material transport in river corridors. Concomitant changes in pressure within the flow field due to the presence of vegetation may act as a driver for the formation of hyporheic flow across the sediment-water interface. This potentially important process, however, has yet to be studied. In order to investigate vegetation-induced hyporheic exchange, a series of numerical models of interlinked surface-subsurface flow modified by plant stems was conducted. Periodically staggered plant stem arrays on a flat sediment bed were considered within a coupled multiphysics computational fluid dynamics approach. Plants were idealized as rigid cylinders and arranged in different streamwise and spanwise spacing distances. Each vegetation array was then subjected to a broad range of flow Reynolds Numbers (Re). The results showed that hyporheic flow occurs in all conditions with the presence of vegetation. The vegetation-induced hyporheic flux is found to be a function of Re via a power law. The flux increases with interstem space until the space reaches the distance that rigid stems no longer affect the flow structures in the vicinity of each other. Larger intervegetation distances lead to a larger hyporheic zone. A direct comparison with bedforminduced hyporheic flow showed that vegetation can induce higher hyporheic flux through relatively shallower exchange zones. The results of all the simulations were synthesized into predictive models for hyporheic flux, bulk residence time and exchange depth based on drag coefficient, vegetation density, and Reynolds Number.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhancing Streamflow Forecast and Extracting Insights Using Long-Short Term Memory Networks With Data Integration at Continental Scales

Recent observations with varied schedules and types (moving average, snapshot, or regularly spaced) can help to improve streamflow forecasts, but it is challenging to integrate them effectively. Based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) streamflow model, we tested multiple versions of a flexible procedure we call data integration (DI) to leverage recent discharge measurements to improve forecasts. DI accepts lagged inputs either directly or through a convolutional neural network unit. DI ubiquitously elevated streamflow forecast performance to unseen levels, reaching a record continental-scale median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient value of 0.86. Integrating moving-average discharge, discharge from the last few days, or even average discharge from the previous calendar month could all improve daily forecasts. Directly using lagged observations as inputs was comparable in performance to using the convolutional neural network unit. Importantly, we obtained valuable insights regarding hydrologic processes impacting LSTM and DI performance. Before applying DI, the base LSTM model worked well in mountainous or snow-dominated regions, but less well in regions with low discharge volumes (due to either low precipitation or high precipitation-energy synchronicity) and large interannual storage variability. DI was most beneficial in regions with high flow autocorrelation: it greatly reduced baseflow bias in groundwater-dominated western basins and also improved peak prediction for basins with dynamical surface water storage, such as the Prairie Potholes or Great Lakes regions. However, even DI cannot elevate performance in high-aridity basins with 1-day flash peaks. Despite this limitation, there is much promise for a deep-learning-based forecast paradigm due to its performance, automation, efficiency, and flexibility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Growing Freshwater Lens in the Arctic Ocean With Sustained Climate Warming Disrupts Marine Ecosystem Function

One of the most robust changes in the hydrological cycle predicted by Earth System Models (ESMs) during the remainder of 21st century is an increase in the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration (P-E) in arctic and boreal regions. We explore the long-term consequences of this change for marine ecosystems in the Arctic Ocean using the Community Earth System Model forced with a business as usual scenario of future greenhouse gas concentrations. We find that by the year 2300 increases in freshwater delivery considerably reduce Arctic Ocean surface salinity, creating a freshwater lens that has far-reaching impacts on marine biogeochemistry. The expanding freshwater lens limits vertical nutrient supply into the euphotic zone by enhancing vertical stratification and accelerating surface lateral mixing with surface waters in the North Atlantic, which become increasingly nutrient depleted from weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The resulting increase in nutrient stress reduces marine export production in the Arctic Ocean by 53% in 2300 relative to the 1990s and triggers a shift in community composition with small phytoplankton replacing diatoms. At the same time, the seasonal timing of export production undergoes a 2-month forward shift, with the peak advancing from July to May. This suggests that the threat to food webs and higher trophic levels may intensify after the year 2100 as gains in productivity from sea ice loss saturate and freshwater impacts on nutrient stress continue to strengthen. Our analysis highlights the critical importance of changing terrestrial hydrology and land-ocean coupling as drivers of long-term biogeochemical change in the Arctic Ocean and the necessity of multi-century climate change projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ecosystem-Level Energy and Water Budgets Are Resilient to Canopy Mortality in Sparse Semiarid Biomes

Climate-driven woody vegetation mortality is a defining feature of semiarid biomes that drives fundamental changes in ecosystem structure. However, the observed impacts of woody mortality on ecosystem-scale energy and water budgets and the responses of surviving vegetation are highly variable among studies in water-limited environments. A previous girdling manipulation experiment in a piñon-juniper woodland suggested that although ecosystem-scale evapotranspiration was not altered by large-scale piñon mortality, soil water content decreased and the surviving juniper experienced greater water stress than juniper in an undisturbed woodland. Here we experimentally explored to what extent mortality-induced changes in energy balance components can explain these results. We compared energy fluxes measured above two adjacent piñon-juniper woodlands where piñon girdling was implemented at one site and the other subsequently experienced large-scale natural piñon mortality. We found that the mortality-induced decrease in canopy area was not sufficient to alter surface reflectance, roughness, and partitioning between energy budget components at both sites. A radiative transfer model estimated that because of the sparse premortality canopy, surface reflectance is more sensitive to a large increase in understory leaf area than further loss of crown area. Increased water stress in the remaining juniper following both mortality events can be explained by an increase in radiation on the ground that promoted higher soil temperature and evaporation. We found similar responses of ecosystem and tree-level functions to both girdling and natural mortality. This suggests that girdling is an appropriate approach to explore the impact of tree mortality on ecosystem structure, function, and energy balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Simulations With High Vertical Resolution in the Lower Troposphere

Abstract General circulation models (GCMs) are typically run with coarse vertical resolution. For example, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) has a vertical resolution of about 200 m in the boundary layer, which is far too coarse to resolve sharp gradients often found in the thermodynamic fields capping subtropical marine stratocumulus. In this article, we present a series of multiyear atmosphere only simulations of E3SM version 1 where we progressively increase the vertical resolution in the lower troposphere to scales approaching those often used in large eddy simulation (LES). We report marginal impacts in regards to the simulation of boundary layer clouds when vertical resolution is moderately increased, yet find significant positive impacts when the vertical resolution approaches that typically used in LES (∼10 m). In these experiments, there is a marked change in the simulated turbulence and thermodynamics which leads to more abundant marine stratocumulus. However, these simulations are burdened with excessive computational cost. They are also subject to degradations in overall climate metrics due to time step sensitivities and because some processes and parameterizations are sensitive to changes in the vertical resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Methods for Causal Discovery in Hydrometeorological Systems

Understanding causal relations is of utmost importance in hydrology and climate research for systems identification, prediction, and understanding systems behavior in a changing climate. Traditionally, researchers in hydrometeorology attempted to study causal questions by conducting controlled experiments using numerical models. This approach, however, in most cases of interest provides uncertain results because the models are approximate representation of the natural system. An alternative approach that has recently drawn significant attention in several fields is to infer causal relations from purely observational data. It possesses several traits to its utility particularly in hydrometeorology due to the rapid accumulation of in situ and remotely sensed data records. The first objective of this study is to present a brief description of four causal discovery methods (Granger causality, Transfer Entropy, graph-based algorithms, and Convergent Cross Mapping) with special emphasis on the assumptions on which they are built. Second, using synthetic data generated from a hydrological model, we assess their performance in retrieving causal information taking into account sensitivity to sample size and presence of noise. Last, we use causal analysis to examine and formulate hypotheses on causal drivers of evapotranspiration in a shrubland region during summer and winter seasons. An interpretation of the hypotheses based on canopy seasonal dynamics and evapotranspiration processes is presented. It is hoped that the results presented here can be useful in guiding researchers studying hydrometeorological systems as to which causal method is most appropriate to the characteristics of the system under study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing Physical Properties of Streambed Interface Sediments Using In Situ Complex Electrical Conductivity Measurements

Streambed sediment physical properties such as surface area, are difficult to quantify in situ but exert a high-level control on a wide range of biogeochemical processes and sorption of contaminants. We introduce the use of complex electrical conductivity (CC) methods (also known as spectral-induced polarization (SIP)) that measure both real and imaginary conductivity to noninvasively and efficiently characterize shallow streambed sediments. We explore the method through synthetic modeling, laboratory, and field measurements to demonstrate the sensitivity of imaginary conductivity to sediment surface area, controlled in part by fine-grained iron oxides produced by anoxic groundwater discharge. Laboratory measurements verify expected relationships between CC parameters and sediment properties. Synthetic modeling using a 1D analytical model illustrates the influence of water layer depth and conductivity on the field CC measurements made at the streambed-stream water interface. Specifically, the inverted sediment imaginary conductivity is less impacted by uncertainty in the water layer depth and conductivity relative to the real conductivity and phase shift. Field CC measurements along a landfill-impacted river reveal discrete streambed zones with enhanced bulk surface area generally corresponding to anoxic groundwater discharge zones with high concentrations of fine-grained iron oxide precipitates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influences on Discharge Partitioning on a Large River Delta: Case Study of the Mississippi-Atchafalaya Diversion, 1926-1950

The modern Mississippi River (M.R.) Delta is plumbed by the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers, setting water and sediment dispersal pathways for Earth’s fifth-largest river system. The Atchafalaya River’s (A.R.) partial annexation of discharge from the M.R., particularly between 1926 and 1950, prompted warnings of a rapid river avulsion and the construction of the Old River Control Structure to regulate flow. Natural and anthropogenic causes of this discharge annexation are difficult to disentangle. Here, we develop and validate a hydrodynamic model of flow partitioning through the historic channel network. We then isolate how several key changes to the system affected discharge partitioning and stage at the A.R.-M.R. diversion. Simulations show that erosion of the upper A.R. can account for 73% of the water discharge increase. Dredging in the lower A.R. between 1932 and 1950 can account for 35% of the water discharge increase, and was also an important control on shear stress distribution. The lower M.R. was slightly erosional during this period, and therefore hindered the A.R. discharge increase. Significant lacustrine delta deposition in A.R. had little effect on partitioning. These findings highlight the importance of A.R. enlargement processes on avulsion dynamics at this site. Given the essential nature of this river junction to the society, transportation, and commerce of the United States, improved attribution of discharge increases may lead to future management strategies that are broadly impactful.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distributed Acoustic Sensing as a Distributed Hydraulic Sensor in Fractured Bedrock

Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) was originally intended to measure oscillatory strain at frequencies of 1 Hz or more on a fiber optic cable. Recently, measurements at much lower frequencies have opened the possibility of using DAS as a dynamic strain sensor in boreholes. A fiber optic cable mechanically coupled to a geologic formation will strain in response to hydraulic stresses in pores and fractures. A DAS interrogator can measure dynamic strain in the borehole, which can be related to fluid pressure through the mechanical compliance properties of the formation. Because DAS makes distributed measurements, it is capable of both locating hydraulically active features and quantifying the fluid pressure in the formation. We present field experiments in which a fiber optic cable was mechanically coupled to two crystalline rock boreholes. The formation was stressed hydraulically at another well using alternating injection and pumping. The DAS instrument measured oscillating strain at the location of a fracture zone known to be hydraulically active. Rock displacements of less than 1 nm were measured. Laboratory experiments confirm that displacement is measured correctly. These results suggest that fiber optic cable embedded in geologic formations may be used to map hydraulic connections in three-dimensional fracture networks. A great advantage of this approach is that strain, an indirect measure of hydraulic stress, can be measured without beforehand knowledge of flowing fractures that intersect boreholes. The technology has obvious applications in water resources, geothermal energy, CO 2 sequestration, and remediation of groundwater in fractured bedrock.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Porosity-Permeability Evolution During Simultaneous Mineral Dissolution and Precipitation

Permeability in reactive porous media evolves in complex ways that are hard to predict. Macroscopic empirical equations are often used to estimate permeability evolution but fail to reflect the impact of pore scale reactions on permeability. This work aims to understand the evolution of permeability in systems where mineral dissolution and precipitation occur simultaneously. Pore network models are used for permeability simulation of a Paluxy sandstone using pore and pore-throat size distributions from the analysis of X-ray CT images. Pore and pore-throat radii are increased and decreased to reflect the effects of dissolution and precipitation reactions. Varying spatial distributions of reactions are simulated and the resulting porosity and permeability values compared with commonly used macroscopic equations. It is observed that when dissolution occurs at the inlet and precipitation at the outlet, porosity increases while permeability decreases. Similar results are also observed in the respective opposite scenario where precipitation occurs at the inlet and dissolution at the outlet. When dissolution and precipitation reactions are randomly distributed throughout the network, porosity increases with little change in permeability that is not captured by the empirical equations. When reactions are controlled by pore and pore-throat sizes, such as dissolution occurring in pores and pore-throats of small size and precipitation in pores and pore-throats of larger size, porosity and permeability decrease. When precipitation occurs in pores and pore-throats of smaller size and dissolution in pores and pore-throats of larger size, porosity and permeability increase and is described relatively well by the Verma-Pruess porosity-permeability equation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Potential Chemical Impacts of Subsurface CO 2 : An Integrated Experimental and Numerical Assessment for a Case Study of the Ogallala Aquifer

Leakage from geologic CO 2 sequestration (GCS) reservoirs to overlying underground sources of drinking water (USDW) is a tangible risk. This study is an integrated assessment that combines column experiments and reactive transport simulations of sediments sampled from the Ogallala aquifer above an active commercial-scale GCS site (the Farnsworth Unit in northern Texas). Experimental and simulation results suggest that carbonate mineral (calcite and dolomite) dissolution is the most significant reaction following CO 2 intrusion, and is also the dominant source of trace metal release. Cation exchange is another key mechanism controlling trace metal release by cation interference. Most of the trace metals, including Ba, Sr, As, Pb, and Zn, show a short-term release and quickly drop to the baseline values, suggesting low risk to the overlying USDW quality. Other trace metals, such as Mn and U, exhibit a tangible increase of their concentrations in the beginning, and drop to a higher level compared to the baseline, which may become a potential concern of long-term USDW quality change with CO2introduction. This study provides a comprehensive example of combining laboratory experiments and simulations for assessment of CO 2 -sediment interactions with combined release mechanisms in shallow groundwater aquifers. Data presented here provides useful insights for quantitative risk assessment and effective public education regarding CO 2 geological sequestration, and trace metal reactive transport studies in shallow groundwater aquifers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Diurnal Dynamics of Gross Primary Productivity Using Observations From the Advanced Baseline Imager on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite‐R Series at an Oak Savanna Ecosystem

Gross primary productivity (GPP) is the largest flux in the global carbon cycle and satellite-based GPP estimates have long been used to study the trends and interannual variability of GPP. With recent updates to geostationary satellites, we can now explore the diurnal variability of GPP at a comparable spatial resolution to polar-orbiting satellites and at temporal frequencies comparable to eddy covariance (EC) tower sites. We used observations from the Advanced Baseline Imager on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R) to test the ability of subdaily satellite data to capture the shifts in the diurnal course of GPP at an oak savanna EC site in California, USA that is subject to seasonal soil moisture declines. We compared three methods to estimate GPP: (a) a light-use efficiency model, (b) a linear relationship between the product of near-infrared reflectance of vegetation and photosynthetically active radiation (LIN-NIR v P) and EC tower GPP, and (c) a light response curve (LRC-NIR v P) between NIR v P and EC GPP. The LRC-NIR v P achieved the lowest mean absolute error for winter (2 µmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ), spring (2.51 µmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ), summer (1.43 µmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ), and fall (1.35 µmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ). The ecosystem experienced the largest shift in daily peak GPP in relation to the peak of incoming solar radiation toward the morning hours during the dry summers. The LRC-NIRvP and the light-use efficiency model were in agreement with these patterns of a shift in peak daily GPP toward the morning hours during summer. Our results can help develop diurnal estimates of GPP from geostationary satellites that are sensitive to fluctuating environmental conditions during the day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using Complex Probability Amplitudes to Simulate Solute Transport in Composite Porous Media

Probability amplitudes are fundamental to quantum mechanics and offer robust descriptions of complicated systems, which have allowed physicists to explain behaviors inaccessible to classical physics. This article ponders how some of the same conceptual underpinnings of the mathematics used for modeling quantum systems might be applied to subsurface water resources problems and speculates how these tools could facilitate applications on quantum computers. A probability amplitude-based model for describing advective-dispersive transport in porous media using linear operators is investigated. The proposed complex valued model decomposes spreading into two “sub-continuum partial dispersion” coefficients, and this recovers classical spreading when the sum of these coefficients is the Fickian dispersion coefficient. However, the probability amplitudes have a manyto-one relationship to a probability distribution, so it embeds a level of heterogeneity into seemingly equivalent functions. Two propagators with different sub-continuum coefficients may have the same macroscopic behavior when either is considered in isolation, but when they act on the other the system’s behavior changes. Additionally, differences in the amplitudes cause a reduction in spreading as velocity correlations are disrupted, despite both propagators having identical dispersion coefficients, and this cannot be achieved using classical methods without changing the dispersion coefficient. The main point is that these amplitude-based models offer a way to embed information about the system into the propagators, instead of just “averaging it out” when making an upscaled model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Connecting Large‐Scale Meteorological Patterns to Extratropical Cyclones in CMIP6 Climate Models Using Self‐Organizing Maps

Abstract Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are responsible for the majority of cool‐season extreme events in the northeastern United States (NEUS), often leading to high‐impact weather conditions that can have wide‐ranging socioeconomic impacts. Evaluating the ability of climate models to adequately simulate ETC dynamics is essential for improving model performance and increasing confidence in future projections used by stakeholders and policymakers. ETCs are traditionally studied using techniques such as case studies and synoptic typing, however, these approaches can be time‐consuming, require subjective analysis, and do not necessarily identify the coincident large‐scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Here, we apply self‐organizing maps (SOMs) as an automated machine‐learning approach to characterize the LSMPs and associated frequency and intensity of discrete ETC events over NEUS. The dominant patterns of geopotential height variability are identified through SOM analysis of five reanalysis products during the last four decades. ETC events are tracked using TempestExtremes and are integrated with SOMs to classify the accumulated cyclone activity (ACA) associated with each pattern. We then evaluate the skill of CMIP6 historical experiments in simulating the LSMPs and ETC events identified in the SOM. Our results identify a robust bias toward more zonal patterns, with models struggling to reproduce the more amplified patterns typically associated with the highest cyclone activity. While model resolution has some impact on simulation credibility, model configuration appears to be more important in LSMP representation. The vast majority of CMIP6 models produce too few ETCs, although model errors are distributed around historical reanalyses when ACA is normalized by storm frequency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗