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At least 127 records · Page 7

New U.S. Data Tools are Playing a Crucial Role in Decarbonizing Buildings at Speed, Scale, and Low Cost

Preparing buildings for retrofits traditionally requires expensive on-site audits or timeintensive simulation models. As a result, the majority of buildings fail to pursue cost-saving retrofits. To address these barriers, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has introduced the Building Efficiency Targeting Tool for Energy Retrofits (BETTER)-a new, free, on-line tool that utilizes a data-driven analytical engine and user-friendly web interface to automatically analyze a building's monthly energy usage in response to weather conditions. The tool benchmarks a building's electric and fossil energy usage against peers; estimates energy, cost, and emissions reductions at the building and portfolio levels; recommends energy efficiency measures; and prioritizes buildings for net-zero energy retrofits. Thanks to interoperability with the DOE's Standard Energy Efficiency Data (SEED) platform, BETTER is supporting U.S. jurisdictions to prepare buildings for retrofit at speed, scale, and low cost to comply with energy policies. This paper discusses the use of BETTER and SEED by one of the branches of the California state government to streamline a retrofit program across 455 public non-residential buildings to align with state goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It describes the organization's challenge to reduce energy consumption across a geographically diverse, aging portfolio; explores how BETTER and SEED improved workflow efficiency; presents preliminary results, including avoiding audit costs of $3.28 million and developing the groundwork for retrofit projects estimated to prevent emission of 2,271 t CO2e annually; and provides guidance for other jurisdictions seeking similar results.

BETTER↗

New U.S. Data Tools are Playing a Crucial Role in Decarbonizing Buildings at Speed, Scale, and Low Cost

Preparing buildings for retrofits traditionally requires expensive on-site audits or time- intensive simulation models. As a result, the majority of buildings fail to pursue cost-saving retrofits. To address these barriers, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has introduced the Building Efficiency Targeting Tool for Energy Retrofits (BETTER)—a new, free, on-line tool that utilizes a data-driven analytical engine and user-friendly web interface to automatically analyze a building’s monthly energy usage in response to weather conditions. The tool benchmarks a building’s electric and fossil energy usage against peers; estimates energy, cost, and emissions reductions at the building and portfolio levels; recommends energy efficiency measures; and prioritizes buildings for net-zero energy retrofits. Thanks to interoperability with the DOE’s Standard Energy Efficiency Data (SEED) platform, BETTER is supporting U.S. jurisdictions to prepare buildings for retrofit at speed, scale, and low cost to comply with energy policies. This paper discusses the use of BETTER and SEED by one of the branches of the California state government to streamline a retrofit program across 455 public non-residential buildings to align with state goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It describes the organization’s challenge to reduce energy consumption across a geographically diverse, aging portfolio; explores how BETTER and SEED improved workflow efficiency; presents preliminary results, including avoiding audit costs of $3.28 million and developing the groundwork for retrofit projects estimated to prevent emission of 2,271 t CO2e annually; and provides guidance for other jurisdictions seeking similar results.

Li, han↗

The flexibility gap: Socioeconomic and geographical factors driving residential flexibility

Residential consumers are moving to the center of electricity systems and their flexibility is seen as a key resource to integrate renewable energy sources and support the grid. However, residential flexibility capacities are not homogeneous, as they depend on household appliances, comfort patterns, occupancy, and climate conditions. In this work, we calculate the technical flexibility capacities of 45 consumer types in mainland Spain, organised according to income and regional criteria. We show that flexibility gaps exist at both regional and socioeconomic (income) levels with flexibility differences of up to 10 times more capacity between the household groups from the lowest to the highest capacities. These geographical and socioeconomic gaps in flexibility can lead to distortions in national markets and have the potential to exclude citizens from the provision of flexibility services. Our results show in quantitative terms that a consumer-centered approach without considering correcting measures nor these gaps in drafting energy policies may lead to increasing inequality levels in the residential sector. Under an economic competitive paradigm, households with lower income levels or located in regions with lower flexibility potential may be excluded from the provision of flexibility to the detriment of households with larger potential, raising justice concerns in a flexibility-based energy transition.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Building Envelope Characteristics in Cold Climates

Prescriptive guidelines for thermal insulation in the design of buildings in cold climates have traditionally been derived by a holistic consideration of climatic factors, energy policy, environmental policy, and economics. The differences in thermal barrier requirements in buildings across the arctic and subarctic regions of the world are influenced as much by the differing priorities of the governing bodies that set these requirements as by actual physical demands and conditions. Usually, national requirements for building envelope characteristics such as thermal insulation values, building envelope airtightness, vapor permeability, building mass, and detailing are based on economics, durability, and environmental considerations. Consideration of thermal energy system resilience provides a new paradigm through which to view the optimization of these parameters. The paper describes specifics of construction in cold climates; summarizes best practice requirements for the building envelope characteristics for buildings located in cold and arctic climate of the United States, Canada, and Scandinavian countries; provides some details illustrating how to implement these requirements; and compares the effects of different levels of building envelope efficiency and building mass on indoor air temperature decay when heat supply is interrupted. The paper also presents results from experts' discussions during the consultation forum "Thermal Energy Systems Resilience in Cold/Arctic Climates" (ERDC 2020) and research conducted under the IEA EBC Annex 73, the Environmental Security Technology Certification Program (ESTCP) Project "Technologies Integration to Achieve Resilient, Low-Energy Military Installations," and U.S. Army Program project 633734T1500 under Military Engineering Technology Demonstration. The paper complements the Cold-Climate Design Guide (ASHRAE 2015) with a focus on the resilience of thermal energy systems.

Arctic↗

Modeling the Air Quality Impacts of Future Energy Scenarios

Many greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction measures achieve simultaneous reductions in air pollutants. Human-Earth system models can estimate such emission changes in the energy system but using them in chemistry-transport models (CTMs) to study their air quality impacts involves resource-intensive emissions processing. This is greatly simplified by an emissions scaling approach linking state-level emissions estimated by a human-Earth system model to a CTM. A scenario continuing pre-2022 energy policy in the U.S. to 2050 shows widespread air quality improvements over the 2015 baseline from SO 2 and NO x emission reductions of 50–80% from electricity generation and light-duty vehicles. Scenarios of GHG mitigation and vehicle electrification at the state and national level add further benefits. However, PM 2.5 increases from increased use of wood heating and bioenergy suggest that additional PM 2.5 management may be needed when using biofuels. In conclusion, this approach helps assess multiple future energy scenarios efficiently without sacrificing chemical detail in the air quality simulations.

air quality↗

A Detailed Vehicle Simulation Process to Support CAFE Standards for the MY 2024–2026 Analysis

In 1975, Congress passed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), requiring standards for corporate average fuel economy (CAFE), and charging the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) with the establishment and enforcement of these standards. The Secretary of Transportation has delegated these responsibilities to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

National-scale impacts on wind energy production under curtailment scenarios to reduce bat fatalities

Wind energy often plays a major role in meeting renewable energy policy objectives; however, increased deployment can raise concerns regarding the impacts of wind plants on certain wildlife. Particularly, estimates suggest hundreds of thousands of bat fatalities occur annually at wind plants across North America, with potential implications for the viability of several bat species. One approach to reducing bat fatalities is shutting down (or curtailing) turbines when bats are most at risk, such as at night during relatively low wind speed periods throughout summer and early autumn. While curtailment has consistently been shown to reduce bat fatalities, the lost power production reduces revenues for wind plants. This study conducted simulations with a range of curtailment scenarios across the contiguous United States to examine sensitivities of annual energy production (AEP) loss and potential impacts on economic metrics for future wind energy deployment. We found that AEP reduction can vary across the country from less than 1% to more than 10% for different curtailment scenarios. From an estimated 2891 gigawatts (GW) of simulated economically viable wind capacity (measured by a positive net present value), we found the mid curtailment scenario (6.0 m/s wind speed cut-in from July 1 through October 31) reduced the quantity of economic wind capacity by 274 GW or 9.5%. Our results indicate that high levels of curtailment could substantially reduce the future footprint of financially viable wind energy. In this context, future work that illuminates cost-effective strategies to minimize curtailment while reducing bat fatalities would be of value.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Output Data: gcam_usa_v5p3_im3

Output databases and tables supporting the publication: Khan, Z., Zhao, M., Ahsan, H., Wolfram, P., Vernon, C., Rice, J., Iyer, G., Binsted, M., Snyder, A., Graham, N., Kyle, P., 2023. Coevolution of future water, energy and land systems across the United States in response to national and global socioeconomic, climate, and energy policy drivers. (In progress) Earths Future, DOI: XXX with further details available at the meta-repository: https://immm-sfa.github.io/khan-etal_2023_im3gcamusa Folder: gcam_usa_im3_outputs (GCAM USA v 5.3 used for IM3 experiment Output Databases): database_rcp45cooler_ssp3.tar.gz database_rcp45cooler_ssp5.tar.gz database_rcp45hotter_ssp5.tar.gz database_rcp45hotter_ssp5.tar.gz database_rcp85cooler_ssp3.tar.gz database_rcp85cooler_ssp5.tar.gz database_rcp85hotter_ssp5.tar.gz database_rcp85hotter_ssp5.tar.gz Folder: gcam_usa_im3_gcamextractor_outputs (gcamextractor post-processing of the GCAM databases for specific downstream models ): dataGCAM_cerf.tar.gz (For CERF Model) dataGCAM_demeter.tar.gz (For Demeter model) dataGCAM_go.tar.gz (For GO model) gcamDataTable.tar.gz (All IM3 scenarios)

Climate Change↗

Space and Terrestrial Power System Integration Optimization Code BRMAPS for Gas Turbine Space Power Plants With Nuclear Reactor Heat Sources

In view of the difficult times the US and global economies are experiencing today, funds for the development of advanced fission reactors nuclear power systems for space propulsion and planetary surface applications are currently not available. However, according to the Energy Policy Act of 2005 the U.S. needs to invest in developing fission reactor technology for ground based terrestrial power plants. Such plants would make a significant contribution toward drastic reduction of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions and associated global warming. To accomplish this goal the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project (NGNP) has been established by DOE under the Generation IV Nuclear Systems Initiative. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) was designated as the lead in the development of VHTR (Very High Temperature Reactor) and HTGR (High Temperature Gas Reactor) technology to be integrated with MMW (multi-megawatt) helium gas turbine driven electric power AC generators. However, the advantages of transmitting power in high voltage DC form over large distances are also explored in the seminar lecture series. As an attractive alternate heat source the Liquid Fluoride Reactor (LFR), pioneered at ORNL (Oak Ridge National Laboratory) in the mid 1960's, would offer much higher energy yields than current nuclear plants by using an inherently safe energy conversion scheme based on the Thorium --> U233 fuel cycle and a fission process with a negative temperature coefficient of reactivity. The power plants are to be sized to meet electric power demand during peak periods and also for providing thermal energy for hydrogen (H2) production during "off peak" periods. This approach will both supply electric power by using environmentally clean nuclear heat which does not generate green house gases, and also provide a clean fuel H2 for the future, when, due to increased global demand and the decline in discovering new deposits, our supply of liquid fossil fuels will have been used up. This is expected within the next 30 to 50 years, as predicted by the Hubbert model and confirmed by other global energy consumption prognoses. Having invested national resources into the development of NGNP, the technology and experience accumulated during the project needs to be documented clearly and in sufficient detail for young engineers coming on-board at both DOE and NASA to acquire it. Hands on training on reactor operation, test rigs of turbomachinery, and heat exchanger components, as well as computational tools will be needed. Senior scientist/engineers involved with the development of NGNP should also be encouraged to participate as lecturers, instructors, or adjunct professors at local universities having engineering (mechanical, electrical, nuclear/chemical, and/or materials) as one of their fields of study.

Juhasz, Albert J.↗

JSC Case Study: Fleet Experience with E-85 Fuel

JSC has used E-85 as part of an overall strategy to comply with Presidential Executive Order 13423 and the Energy Policy Act. As a Federal fleet, we are required to reduce our petroleum consumption by 2 percent per year, and increase the use of alternative fuels in our vehicles. With the opening of our onsite dispenser in October 2004, JSC became the second federal fleet in Texas and the fifth NASA center to add E-85 fueling capability. JSC has a relatively small number of GSA Flex Fuel fleet vehicles at the present time (we don't include personal vehicles, or other contractor's non-GSA fleet), and there were no reasonably available retail E-85 fuel stations within a 15-minute drive or within five miles (one way). So we decided to install a small 1000 gallon onsite tank and dispenser. It was difficult to obtain a supplier due to our low monthly fuel consumption, and our fuel supplier contract has changed three times in less than five years. We experiences a couple of fuel contamination and quality control issues. JSC obtained good information on E-85 from the National Ethanol Vehicle Coalition (NEVC). We also spoke with Defense Energy Support Center, (DESC), Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, and US Army Fort Leonard Wood. E-85 is a liquid fuel that is dispensed into our Flexible Fuel Vehicles identically to regular gasoline, so it was easy for our vehicle drivers to make the transition.

Hummel, Kirck↗

Sampling and Analysis Plan for Investigation of Undeclared Nuclear Activities - 20104

The nuclear-centered energy policy in South Korea is moving towards a nuclear-free era. It also facilitates an action or progress on the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. The Nuclear Safety and Security Commission (NSSC) launched a new R and D project which attempts to verify nuclear activities via analyzing environmental samples. Environmental samples possibly contain significant radiological information relevant to past undeclared activities. In order to precisely verify them, it is essential to provide 1) the concrete information of target facilities, 2) appropriate methodologies and procedures, and 3) well-suited instrumentation and equipment corresponding to sample signatures. It is also important to provide scientific reliability or validity in any process such as sample collection, handling, transportation and laboratory analysis. Therefore, the information of nuclear facilities (fuel fabrication plant, graphite moderated reactor, reprocessing plant) in North Korea are reviewed in order to determine parameters for appropriate sampling methods representing a facility's characteristics. Secondly, a sampling procedure for radioactive elements is being developed based on international and domestic standards such as ASTM (American Society for Testing and Materials), KS (Korean industrial Standards), and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) manuals. The procedure contains some specific information including sampling process, sampling tools, amount of sample, sample identification, and other related information. Developing the qualified national guidelines is most important since sampling and analyzing results can be used as evidences of nuclear activities. The guideline developed through this work will clearly define various methodologies such as document verification, sampling procedures, collection methods, sample storage criteria, chain of custody, and transportation conditions. The final objective of this work is to establish the infrastructure and regulatory framework for assessment of nuclear activities, and provide a national guideline for sampling and analysis. This will bring confidence in the results and play a critical role in complete denuclearization progress in South Korea. (authors)

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology has significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigate the impact of climate change, particularly in hard to decarbonize industrial and commercial sectors. CCUS involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial processes or power generation and utilizing it for other purposes, such as enhanced oil recovery (EOR), or storing the captured CO 2 underground. CCUS technology can reduce the environmental impact of continued fossil fuel use while smoothing the transition to a low-carbon economy. CCUS can create new economic opportunities, such as the development of new industries and job creation, and can enhance energy security by diversifying energy sources. For these reasons, enabling CCUS has become a key objective of the Biden-Harris administration’s clean energy policy and has received bipartisan support. Despite its environmental and economic potential, CCUS faces multiple barriers to widespread deployment. One of the main challenges is the high cost and technical difficulty of implementing and operating large-scale CCUS infrastructure. CCUS remains a relatively expensive way to reduce carbon emissions (e.g., compared to solar photovoltaic technology’s displacement of coal generation). Additionally, financial incentives and supportive policies like those enacted to support solar photovoltaic development, especially at the state level, are inconsistent or nonexistent, which can discourage investment in CCUS projects. There are also technical challenges associated with safe and secure underground CO 2 storage and the development of new carbon utilization technologies. Public opposition to various aspects of CCUS technologies, ranging from concerns that CCUS will extend reliance on fossil fuels to CCUS infrastructure being sited in disadvantaged communities, is a growing challenge. This paper focuses on another significant barrier to broad CCUS deployment: the need for considerable expansion of the dedicated land-based CO 2 pipeline network in the United States to meet CCUS goals and the unique regulatory challenges to its development. To reach carbon emissions targets in the United States by 2050, CCUS technology will need to be supported by tens of thousands of miles of CO 2 pipelines. Estimates range from a minimum of roughly 29,000 pipeline miles (according to a 2020 Great Plains Institute study) to 66,000 pipeline miles (as per a 2021 Princeton University–led study). As of October 2022, however, the U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) reports fewer than 5,400 miles of U.S. pipelines carrying CO 2 . This deficit—and what it means for the prospect of moving substantially larger quantities of CO 2 from source to use or storage—threatens to stifle the development of CCUS projects and technologies identified as an important tool to meet emissions targets. The current regulatory landscape facing CO 2 pipeline development can best be described as uncertain. At the federal level, the U.S. DOT Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) oversees safety regulation of pipelines transporting hazardous materials, including CO 2 upon commencement of operation. However, PHMSA’s definition of CO 2 as “a fluid consisting of more than 90 percent CO 2 molecules compressed to a supercritical state” has not been updated since its 1991 addition to the Federal Register. Because CO 2 can be transported in a gaseous, liquid, or supercritical state (indeed, the physical state of CO 2 can fluctuate within a single pipeline due to environmental changes), doubts persist about the extent of PHMSA’s purview—and raise questions about what, if anything, states should do to address this apparent gap. PHMSA has begun a major revision of its existing rules, but the agency does not expect a first draft before 2024. Economic oversight of CO 2 pipelines is even less clear. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and Surface Transportation Board (STB)—which regulate the rates of interstate oil/natural gas and non-energy pipelines, respectively—have both declined jurisdiction over interstate CO 2 pipelines. This presumably leaves economic regulation to state and/or local governments, but few if any states have the laws or resources in place to oversee just and reasonable rates. Further, the interstate nature of CO 2 pipeline development creates questions around how different states should align their rate-making decisions. Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation Currently, regulatory responsibilities regarding CO 2 pipeline siting and permitting fall to state and local governments. The variety of laws and regulations across the country, however, creates a maze of requirements for pipeline developers to navigate. To secure necessary permits, most states require pipeline companies to be “common carriers” that provide transport service to the public at uniform rates. However, the specific definition of that term varies. Some states require clear evidence that a pipeline services the public, while others automatically deem any pipeline company transporting energy products or hazardous materials to be a “common carrier”—with little consideration for accessibility to third parties. Other states have eschewed common-carrier terminology entirely, placing private and publicly accessible pipelines on equal footing. Much like the variation in common-carrier requirements, laws governing eminent domain authority to secure rights-of-way (ROW) to commence construction on a planned pipeline route differ by state. Several states have no laws or rules governing CO 2 pipelines. In addition to creating questions about whether long-standing rules for other pipelines (e.g., natural gas or petroleum products) apply to CO 2 , this policy vacuum leaves local governments as the sole authority over sections of pipe within their boundaries. With dozens of counties along a given route, the probability of inconsistent regulation of the same pipeline is significant. Even in states with CO 2 pipeline laws in place, local regulatory attempts to address rising concerns over pipeline routing and safety have triggered lawsuits by pipeline companies seeking to delimit areas of federal, state, and local government responsibility. Meanwhile, legislators across the country have introduced bills to restrict the application of eminent domain to CO 2 pipeline projects, which could threaten a key means of securing ROW that companies cannot secure through negotiation with landowners. Taken separately, any of these regulatory issues—the narrow federal definition of CO 2 , FERC’s and STB’s decisions that CO 2 pipelines are not within their jurisdiction, and the considerable variation in state and local governments’ laws regulating CO 2 pipeline technologies—are extremely difficult to resolve. Adding the required scale of CO 2 pipeline expansion and the currently identified narrow window of time in which to reach climate target goals, the task becomes even more difficult—and raises a host of urgent questions for regulators. How should CO 2 be defined in federal regulations to ensure consistent safety standards across the country? What is the potential impact radius of a CO 2 pipeline rupture, and how should that inform local emergency response? In the absence of centralized federal oversight, what should state legislatures do to increase alignment for interstate CO 2 pipeline projects? This paper intends to serve as a primer for regulators and stakeholders who seek to better understand the regulatory challenges and opportunities facing this critical infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Check the Storage Stack: Comparing Behind-the-Meter Energy Storage State Policy Stacks in the United States

A variety of studies and disparate datasets track state energy storage polices, but these datasets do not cover all BTM-related storage policy. Moreover, these databases do not align these policies with the policy stacking framework. Thus, it is unclear what BTM storage policies are adopted across the country, what should comprise a complete storage policy framework or stack, and how states policies compare against that stack. This report addresses this gap in the literature by developing a state policy stack for BTM battery storage that we compare across all fifty states. This first-of-its-kind BTM storage policy stack includes 11 parent policy categories, and 31 associated policies divided across the market preparation, creation, and expansion policy components.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Impact of hydropower availability on resource adequacy of the United States western interconnection

Hydropower is a key energy source in the western interconnection of the United States, comprising about 25% of the annual installed nameplate capacity in 2020. However, its generation is increasingly impacted by changing hydrological conditions, operational constraints, environmental factors, water availability, and aging dam infrastructure. Assessing hydropower availability and resource adequacy is valuable for shaping energy policies and infrastructure requirements. In this study we evaluate the sensitivity of resource adequacy in the Western Interconnection to the unavailability of hydropower plants, under a wide-ranging set of 16,384 hydropower loss scenarios derived from a combination of 14 major hydrologic regions. Although a complete loss of hydropower capacity in any region is unlikely, studying such scenarios helps in identifying hydrologic regions most critical for maintaining resource adequacy. So, we identify key hydrologic regions with disproportionately large adequacy impacts relative to their installed hydropower capacity and study compounding effects between regions using classification and regression trees. Even after controlling for total installed capacity, we find that hydropower resources in the Pacific Northwest contribute the most to interconnection-wide adequacy outcomes, with resources in Northern California and the Desert Southwest providing more moderate incremental contributions.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

A Detailed Vehicle Simulation Process to Support CAFE and CO 2 Standards (MY 2021–2026 Final Rule Analysis)

In 1975, Congress passed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), requiring standards for corporate average fuel economy (CAFE), and charging the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) with the establishment and enforcement of these standards. The Secretary of Transportation has delegated these responsibilities to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). NHTSA has contracted the DOT Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center) to provide analytical support for NHTSA’s regulatory and analytical activities related to fuel economy standards. Unlike long-standing safety and criteria pollutant emissions standards, fuel economy standards apply to manufacturers’ overall fleets rather than to individual vehicle models. In developing the standards, NHTSA made use of the CAFE Compliance and Effects Modeling System (the “CAFE model”), which was developed by DOT’s Volpe Center for the 2005-2007 CAFE rulemaking and has been continually updated since. The model is the primary tool used by the agency to evaluate potential CAFE stringency levels by applying technologies incrementally to each manufacturer’s fleet until the requirements under consideration are met. The CAFE model relies on numerous technology-related and economic inputs such as market forecasts and technology cost and effectiveness estimates; these inputs are categorized by vehicle classification, technology synergies, phase-in rates, cost learning curve adjustments, and technology “decision trees.” The Volpe Center assists NHTSA in the development of the engineering and economic inputs to the CAFE model by analyzing the application of potential technologies to the current automotive industry vehicle fleet to determine the feasibility of future CAFE standards, the associated costs, and the benefits of the standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Fossil energy deployment through midcentury consistent with 2°C climate stabilization

Energy system transformation scenarios satisfying particular climate stabilization objectives, such as 2°C, suggest that a wide range of fossil energy outcomes could be consistent with such objectives. The underlying drivers of variability in these outcomes cannot, however, be easily separated. This paper attempts to shed light on such drivers using a single, state-of-the-art global integrated assessment model (GCAM) to evaluate the energy system implications of climate stabilization near 2°C. We focus specifically on the role of fossil primary energy through midcentury under different assumptions about carbon capture and storage (CCS) and bioenergy supply. In our scenarios, coal and natural gas primary energy are most sensitive to the availability of CCS, with bioenergy supply having a secondary impact on these sources. Looking across primary energy sources, we find that primary energy from coal declines by midcentury relative to 2015 in all GCAM mitigation scenarios considered here, whereas primary energy from natural gas and oil increases by midcentury relative to 2015 in most of the scenarios in which CCS is available. We explain these results in terms of fundamental energy-economic relationships and discuss the implications of these findings for broader energy policy and planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Carbon neutral manufacturing via on-site CO 2 recycling

The chemical industry needs to significantly decrease carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in order to meet the 2050 carbon neutrality goal. Utilization of CO 2 as a chemical feedstock for bulk products is a promising way to mitigate industrial emissions; however, CO 2 -based manufacturing is currently not competitive with the established petrochemical methods and its deployment requires creation of a new value chain. Here, we show that an alternative approach, using CO 2 conversion as an add-on to existing manufactures, can disrupt the global carbon cycle while minimally perturbing the operation of chemical plants. Proposed closed-loop on-site CO 2 recycling processes are economically viable in the current market and have the potential for rapid introduction in the industries. Retrofit-based CO 2 recycling can reduce annually between 4 and 10 Gt CO 2 by 2050 and contribute to achieving up to 50% of the industrial carbon neutrality goal.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Process modeling, techno-economic assessment, and life cycle assessment of the electrochemical reduction of CO 2 : a review

The electrochemical reduction of CO 2 has emerged as a promising alternative to traditional fossil-based technologies for the synthesis of chemicals. Its industrial implementation could lead to a reduction in the carbon footprint of chemicals and the mitigation of climate change impacts caused by hard-to-decarbonize industrial applications, among other benefits. However, the current low technology readiness levels of such emerging technologies make it hard to predict their performance at industrial scales. During the past few years, researchers have developed diverse techniques to model and assess the electrochemical reduction of CO 2 toward its industrial implementation. The aim of this literature review is to provide a comprehensive overview of techno-economic and life cycle assessment methods and pave the way for future assessment approaches. First, we identify which modeling approaches have been conducted to extend analysis to the production scale. Next, we explore the metrics used to evaluate such systems, regarding technical, environmental, and economic aspects. Finally, we assess the challenges and research opportunities for the industrial implementation of CO 2 reduction via electrolysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗