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At least 127 records · Page 7

Sector-Specific Methodologies for Subnational Energy Modeling

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Department of Energy's Office Strategic Priorities and Impact Analysis Office sought to address gaps in subnational energy data availability. This report describes the methodologies and analysis developed to estimate electricity and natural gas consumption and expenditures for the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors within each U.S. city.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Case Study about Energy and Cost Impacts for Different Community Scenarios Using a Community-Scale Building Energy Modeling Tool

The United States building sector consumed approximately 75% of electricity in 2019. By implementing renewable energy technologies and control strategies into buildings, future buildings will serve as energy generators as well as consumers. To accommodate this transition, communications among buildings and between buildings and the grid could provide more possibilities to optimize the energy performance of buildings. This paper develops a community-scale building energy model tool and conducts a case study adopting behind-the-meter distributed energy resources, sharing energy in different buildings, and using different electricity tariff structures. Three scenarios are studied: (1) electricity only supplied by the grid, (2) photovoltaic (PV) panels installed on and available to some but not all buildings, and (3) a connected community. To consider the impacts of locations and energy tariffs, this paper selects four cities and three electricity tariffs to evaluate the energy and cost performances of these three scenarios. The results show that the PV panels in Scenario 2 reduce 25% to 33% of the community-level electricity consumption and 20% to 30% of the community-level electricity cost compared with Scenario 1 in all studied locations and energy tariffs. By considering power management in the connected community (Scenario 3), the electricity consumption and cost can be further reduced by 6% to 7% and 5% to 11%, respectively, compared with Scenario 2.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Application and evaluation of a pattern-based building energy model calibration method using public building datasets

Building performance simulation has been adopted to support decision making in the building life cycle. An essential issue is to ensure a building energy simulation model can capture the reality and complexity of buildings and their systems in both the static characteristics and dynamic operations. Building energy model calibration is a technique that takes various types of measured performance data (e.g., energy use) and tunes key model parameters to match the simulated results with the actual measurements. This study performed an application and evaluation of an automated pattern-based calibration method on commercial building models that were generated based on characteristics of real buildings. A public building dataset that includes high-level building attributes (e.g., building type, vintage, total floor area, number of stories, zip code) of 111 buildings in San Francisco, California, USA, was used to generate building models in EnergyPlus. Monthly level energy use calibrations were then conducted by comparing building model results against the actual buildings' monthly electricity and natural gas consumption. The results showed 57 out of 111 buildings were successfully calibrated against actual buildings, while the remaining buildings showed opportunities for future calibration improvements. Enhancements to the pattern-based model calibration method are identified to expand its use for: (1) central heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems with chillers, (2) space heating and hot water heating with electricity sources, (3) mixed-use building types, and (4) partially occupied buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Challenges and Lessons Learned in Applying Sensitivity Analysis to Building Stock Energy Models

Uncertainty Analysis (UA) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA) offer essential tools to determine the limits of inference of a model and explore the factors which have the most effect on the model outputs. However, despite a well established body of work applying UA and SA to models of individual buildings, a review of the literature relating to energy models for larger groups of buildings undertaken by Fennell et al. (2019) highlighted very limited application at larger scales. This contribution describes the efforts undertaken by a group of research teams in the context of IEA-EBC Annex 70 working with a diverse set of Building Stock Models (BSMs) to apply global sensitivity analysis methods and compare their results. Since BSMs are a class of model defined by their output and coverage rather than their structure and inputs, they represent a diverse set of modelling approaches. Key challenges for the application of SA are identified and explored, including the influence of model form, input data types and model outputs. This study combines results from 7 different modelling teams, each using different models across a range of urban areas to explore these challenges and begin the process of developing standardised workflows for SA of BSMs.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗

Dispatchable Renewable Energy Model for Microgrid Power System

Over the years, many research projects have been performed and focused on finding out the effective ways to balance the power demands and supply on the utility grid. The causes of the imbalance could be the increasing demands from the end users, the loss of power generation (generators down), faults on the transmission lines, power tripped due to overload, and weather conditions, etc. An efficient Load Frequency Control (LFC) can assure the desired electricity quality provided to the residential, commercial and industrial end users. A simulation model is built in this project to investigate the contribution of the modeling of dispatchable energy such as solar energy, wind power, hydro power and energy storage to the balance of the microgrid power system. An analysis of simplified feedback control system with proportional, integral, and derivative (PID) controller was performed. The purpose of this research is to investigate a simulation model that achieves certain degree of the resilient control for the microgrid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluation of “Autotune” calibration against manual calibration of building energy models

Our paper demonstrates the application of Autotune, a methodology aimed at automatically producing calibrated building energy models using measured data, in two case studies. In the first case, a building model is de-tuned by deliberately injecting faults into more than 60 parameters. This model was then calibrated using Autotune and its accuracy with respect to the original model was evaluated in terms of the industry-standard normalized mean bias error and coefficient of variation of root mean squared error metrics set forth in ASHRAE Guideline 14. In addition to whole-building energy consumption, outputs including lighting, plug load profiles, HVAC energy consumption, zone temperatures, and other variables were analyzed. In the second case, Autotune calibration is compared directly to experts’ manual calibration of an emulated-occupancy, full-size residential building with comparable calibration results in much less time. Lastly, our paper concludes with a discussion of the key strengths and weaknesses of auto-calibration approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 Study on Short-Lived Climate Forcers: Introduction and Overview

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 inter-comparison study on short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) focuses on black carbon (BC) and methane, two of the most important warming SLCFs. The potential impact on climate change of methane and BC-focused emission reductions in the transport and residential sectors were quantified using nine integrated assessment models and a simple climate model. These SLCF reductions reduced global temperatures by 0.18–0.26 °C in 2050 across the models for central climate parameters, with methane being the dominant contributor. The incremental impact of SLCF-focused reductions is much smaller when combined with a broader climate policy. Individual modeling groups examined the health benefits of air pollutant reductions, climate policy co-benefits, and quantified market impacts from air pollutant damages. Model structure and set-up impact on results are discussed along with areas for future work.

Smith, Steven J.↗

Prototype Supermarket Building Energy Model

The U.S. Department of Energy supports the development of commercial building energy codes and standards by participating in industry reviews, update processes, and providing technical analyses to support both published model codes and potential changes. In support of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1 and the International Energy Conservation Code, 16 commercial prototype building models were developed that cover 80% of the commercial building floor area in the United States for new construction, including both commercial buildings and mid- to high-rise residential buildings, across all U.S. climate zones. However, the current set of commercial prototype building models does not include a supermarket building type, which is one of major building types defined in the Energy Information Administration’s Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey. As part of an ongoing effort to expand the current Commercial Building Prototype Model suite, this report presents the procedure used to develop the prototype supermarket building model based on multiple studies as well as a previously developed reference building model. The final set of prototype models includes 60 models for different vintages of ASHRAE Standard 90.1 (i.e., 2004, 2007, 2010, and 2013) and for 15 ASHRAE climate zones.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Ocean Surface Flux Algorithm Effects on Earth System Model Energy and Water Cycles

Earth system models parameterize ocean surface fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum with empirical bulk flux algorithms, which introduce biases and uncertainties into simulations. We investigate the atmosphere and ocean model sensitivity to algorithm choice in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Flux differences between algorithms are larger in atmosphere simulations (where wind speeds can vary) than ocean simulations (where wind speeds are fixed by forcing data). Surface flux changes lead to global scale changes in the energy and water cycles, notably including ocean heat uptake and global mean precipitation rates. Compared to the control algorithm, both COARE and University of Arizona (UA) algorithms reduce global mean precipitation and top of atmosphere radiative biases. Further, UA may slightly reduce biases in ocean meridional heat transport. We speculate that changes seen here, especially in the ocean, could be even larger in coupled simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ten questions on urban building energy modeling

Buildings in cities consume up to 70% of all primary energy. To achieve cities’ energy and climate goals, it is necessary to reduce energy use and associated greenhouse gas emissions in buildings through energy conservation and efficiency improvements. Computational tools empowered with rich urban datasets can model performance of buildings at the urban scale to provide quantitative insights for stakeholders and inform their decision making on urban energy planning, as well as building energy retrofits at scale, to achieve efficiency, sustainability, and resilience of urban buildings. Designing and operating urban buildings as a group (from a city block to a district to an entire city) rather than as single individuals requires simulation and optimization to account for interactions among buildings and between buildings and their surrounding urban environment, and for district energy systems serving multiple buildings with diverse thermal loads across space and time. When hundreds or more buildings are involved in typical urban building energy modeling (UBEM) to estimate annual energy demand, evaluate design or retrofit options, and quantify impacts of extreme weather events or climate change, it is crucial to integrate urban datasets and UBEM tools in a seamless automatic workflow with cloud or high-performance computing for users including urban planners, designers and researchers. This paper presents ten questions that highlight significant UBEM research and applications. The proposed answers in this work aim to stimulate discussion and provide insights into the current and future research on UBEM, and more importantly, to inspire new and important questions from young researchers in the field.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

CMB and BAO constraints for an induced gravity dark energy model with a quartic potential

We study the predictions for structure formation in an induced gravity dark energy model with a quartic potential. By developing a dedicated Einstein-Boltzmann code, we study self-consistently the dynamics of homogeneous cosmology and of linear perturbations without using any parametrization. By evolving linear perturbations with initial conditions in the radiation era, we accurately recover the quasi-static analytic approximation in the matter dominated era. We use PLANCK 2013 data and a compilation of baryonic acoustic oscillation (BAO) data to constrain the coupling γ to the Ricci curvature and the other cosmological parameters. By connecting the gravitational constant in the Einstein equation to the one measured in a Cavendish-like experiment, we find γ < 0.0012 at 95% CL with PLANCK 2013 and BAO data. This is the tightest cosmological constraint on γ and on the corresponding derived post-Newtonian parameters. Because of a degeneracy between γ and the Hubble constant H{sub 0}, we show how larger values for γ are allowed, but not preferred at a significant statistical level, when local measurements of H{sub 0} are combined in the analysis with PLANCK 2013 data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Multimodal Freight Energy Model for Emerging Freight Technology Analysis

While freight movement represents a small portion of the volume in the transportation sector, they are a critical contributor for energy consumed in that sector. To reduce logistics costs, energy consumption and negative environmental impact, emerging technologies, such as digitalization of logistics and alternative powertrain, have been developed and extended applications in freight. These trends are expected to grow and provide opportunities for greater efficiencies in freight movement and corresponding energy use. Still, the complexity of freight systems present challenges in evaluating these benefits, especially in the multimodal inter-city freight. Addressing the research need, this paper develops a multimodal freight energy modeling framework for the analysis of emerging freight technology scenarios. The framework is a bi-level optimization problem: network cost minimization problem (lower-level) and energy minimization problem (upper-level). The lower-level problem is a mode-path assignment problem in multimodal inter-city freight networks, where commodity-specific congestion effects on trans-shipment links are considered. For this model, an inverse modeling approach is applied to infer parameters of the lower-level model. The upper-level problem is designed to search for an optimal scenario that has the lowest energy consumption among different levels of technology applications. The proposed model is empirically tested to analyze truck load-pooling and multimodal load-pooling scenarios through stand-alone and mixed applications using freight shipments originating from or destined to the Chicago region. This framework can be used to explore the impact of emerging freight technologies on mode-path freight flow and energy consumption in the national multimodal freight network.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Exploration of Domain Aware Machine Learning for Grid Analytics: Transfer-Learnt Energy Models to Assist Buildings Control with Sparse Field Data

Buildings are a primary consumer of energy in the United States and are also increasingly being perceived as providers of grid services such as load shifting, shedding and modulation. High fidelity models of building energy consumption are needed to set appropriate baselines for measurement and verification (M&V) of controllers designed for energy efficient operation of buildings and to enable buildings to provide grid services via. participation in demand response programs. State-of-the-art building energy modeling techniques either rely on Physics based models, or extensive instrumentation of the building envelope to gather “big” data to train machine learning based models such as deep neural networks. While Physics based models are often limited by their accuracy, it is not always feasible to gather a significant amount of field data required to train machine learning based models with sufficient accuracy. In this paper, we explore the use of transfer learning-based strategies to address unsatisfactory accuracy of models for estimating building energy consumption when available field data for training is sparse or of unacceptable quality. In particular, we transfer knowledge in the form of data and parameters, from Physics based simulation frameworks to the field to improve the model accuracy, thus resulting in a Physics-informed Machine Learning framework. We evaluated the efficacy of our approach on field data collected from six commercial buildings and our results indicate that the proposed transfer learning based models provide comparative (and in some cases better) accuracy than state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning solutions, with just one month of field data.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Simulating dispatchable grid services provided by flexible building loads: State of the art and needed building energy modeling improvements

End-use electrical loads in residential and commercial buildings are evolving into flexible and cost-effective resources to improve electric grid reliability, reduce costs, and support increased hosting of distributed renewable generation. This article reviews the simulation of utility services delivered by buildings for the purpose of electric grid operational modeling. We consider services delivered to (1) the high-voltage bulk power system through the coordinated action of many, distributed building loads working together, and (2) targeted support provided to the operation of low-voltage electric distribution grids. Although an exhaustive exploration is not possible, we emphasize the ancillary services and voltage management buildings can provide and summarize the gaps in our ability to simulate them with traditional building energy modeling (BEM) tools, suggesting pathways for future research and development.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Adapting Existing Energy Models for Resilience Analysis

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result of the growing interest in energy sector resilience, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate resilience indicators and metrics, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. A necessary focus of the research community lies in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing these challenges that need to be addressed, we explore how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes—including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences—based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches. To demonstrate the importance of perspective, we selected models that represent different segments of the energy sector, geographic scales, and modeling approaches. A second important aspect of our effort was the development of generalized power interruption scenarios. These scenarios were intended to help establish a framework for simulating the effects of real-world threats in terms of their impacts on system components and, in turn, power interruption.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Expanding Accessibility of Energy Modeling in Hawaii

Engage is a free, publicly available web application for energy system modeling. It can augment the energy system planning process by empowering more stakeholders to understand energy system planning options. Engage is user-friendly, free accessible, collaborative, and communicative. The Hawaii Advanced Visualization Environment Nexus (HAVEN) is an outputs-based application for rendering high-impact communicative visualizations of complex data. Engage and HAVEN were developed in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the Hawaii State Energy Office. This use case provides an overview of Hawaii's use of Engage and HAVEN concurrently in working to meet the state's energy goals.

48 EE - Weatherization and Intergovernmental Progr↗

A DYNAMIC ENERGY MODEL FOR DISPLAY CASES CONSIDERING FAULTS IN SUPERMARKETS FOR LOW GWP REFRIGERANTION

Display cases are widely used in supermarkets to demonstrate commercial goods for customers, like milk, frozen food, ice-cream, etc. There are two types of display case: open case and closed case. The goods inside display cases need to stay within a stable temperature range to meet the quality standards. However, due to variety of faults (e.g., leaving door opening), it is hard to maintain a stable temperature. The associated energy consumption from display cases is extremely high due to faults. There is a need for a dynamic energy model to accurately predict the good temperature and energy consumption under faults. A dynamic model is developed based on operation data collected through field tests in a low global warming potential (GWP) refrigeration system, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

Li, Yanfei↗

Energy efficiency and thermal resilience analysis for row houses using representative building energy models

Row houses, a prevalent medium-density urban archetype, were popularized during industrial era to accommodate the working class in the U.S. cities. Today, many of these structures are deteriorating, exacerbating the energy cost for residents with limited economic resources. Moreover, many households that lack Air Conditioning (AC) are vulnerable to extreme summer heat, an issue expected to worsen in the future. Energy-efficient retrofits can help mitigate these challenges. However, current literature provides limited insight into how existing building energy codes impact the energy efficiency and thermal resilience of row houses in current and future weather scenarios. This study provides a detailed method to address this gap by employing calibrated representative energy models of row houses as a baseline, and evaluating the annual energy savings and summertime thermal safety improvements from code compliant retrofits under current and future typical weather conditions. Using Baltimore City as a case study, results show that under current weather, retrofitting row houses yields significant energy savings along with notable thermal resilience improvements. The end unit row house realizes higher energy savings, whereas the interior unit experiences greater thermal resilience improvement after retrofitting. In future, retrofitted row houses can still save energy, but residents will face numerous hours of fatal indoor temperatures without AC in summer. Additionally, findings reveal stark zone-wise variations in thermal safety, and elevated humidity risks in certain zones post-retrofit, emphasizing the need for zonal retrofit strategies and better natural ventilation strategies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗