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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Influence of Fault Architecture on Induced Earthquake Sequence Evolution Revealed by High-Resolution Focal Mechanism Solutions

The increasing seismicity and improved seismic observation network in recent years provide an opportunity to explore factors that influence the triggering processes, spatiotemporal evolution, and maximum magnitude of induced sequences. We map the fault architecture and stress state of four induced sequences in Oklahoma to determine their influence on the seismicity. We systematically relocate the earthquakes and compute hundreds of focal mechanisms of small to medium events (1.0 < M < 5.1) using various techniques, including machine learning, for the Guthrie, Woodward, Cushing, and Fairview sequences. The detailed fault geometry and spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity and stress states reveal different dominant driving forces for each sequence. In Cushing and Fairview (largest event ≥M5.0), the main fault structures are near-vertical narrow strike-slip faults, with most of the small earthquake fault planes optimally oriented. The two sequences exhibit discontinuous temporal migration but strong earthquake self-driven rupture growth. In Guthrie and Woodward (largest event <M5.0), the two sequences show more complex diffuse fault structures with varying dipping angles along depth. The inverted focal mechanisms show a mix of strike-slip faulting and normal faulting in both sequences, and the normal faulting events are less optimally oriented than strike-slip events. The two sequences are dominated by continuous diffusive migration in time driven by pore pressure propagation. The above results suggest that fault architecture and stress state influence sequence evolution, major driving forces, and possibly maximum magnitude.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Rupture Simulations of Caldera Collapse Earthquakes: Effects of Wave Radiation, Magma Viscosity, and Evidence of Complex Nucleation at Kilauea 2018

All instrumented basaltic caldera collapses have generated M w > 5 very long period earthquakes. However, previous studies of source dynamics have been limited to lumped models treating the caldera block as rigid, leaving open questions related to how ruptures initiate and propagate around the ring fault, and the seismic expressions of those dynamics. Here, we present the first 3D numerical model capturing the nucleation and propagation of ring fault rupture, the mechanical coupling to the underlying viscoelastic magma, and the associated seismic wavefield. We demonstrate that seismic radiation, neglected in previous models, acts as a damping mechanism reducing coseismic slip by up to half, with effects most pronounced for large magma chamber volume/ring fault radius or highly compliant crust/compressible magma. Viscosity of basaltic magma has negligible effect on collapse dynamics. In contrast, viscosity of silicic magma significantly reduces ring fault slip. We use the model to simulate the 2018 Kilauea caldera collapse. Three stages of collapse, characterized by ring fault rupture initiation and propagation, deceleration of the downward-moving caldera block and magma column, and post-collapse resonant oscillations, in addition to chamber pressurization, are identified in simulated and observed (unfiltered) near-field seismograms. A detailed comparison of simulated and observed displacement waveforms corresponding to collapse earthquakes with hypocenters at various azimuths of the ring fault reveals a complex nucleation phase for earthquakes initiated on the northwest. Our numerical simulation framework will enhance future efforts to reconcile seismic and geodetic observations of caldera collapse with conceptual models of ring fault and magma chamber dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using a physics-informed neural network and fault zone acoustic monitoring to predict lab earthquakes

Abstract Predicting failure in solids has broad applications including earthquake prediction which remains an unattainable goal. However, recent machine learning work shows that laboratory earthquakes can be predicted using micro-failure events and temporal evolution of fault zone elastic properties. Remarkably, these results come from purely data-driven models trained with large datasets. Such data are equivalent to centuries of fault motion rendering application to tectonic faulting unclear. In addition, the underlying physics of such predictions is poorly understood. Here, we address scalability using a novel Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN). Our model encodes fault physics in the deep learning loss function using time-lapse ultrasonic data. PINN models outperform data-driven models and significantly improve transfer learning for small training datasets and conditions outside those used in training. Our work suggests that PINN offers a promising path for machine learning-based failure prediction and, ultimately for improving our understanding of earthquake physics and prediction.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automatic speech recognition predicts contemporaneous earthquake fault displacement

Abstract Significant progress has been made in probing the state of an earthquake fault by applying machine learning to continuous seismic waveforms. The breakthroughs were originally obtained from laboratory shear experiments and numerical simulations of fault shear, then successfully extended to slow-slipping faults. Here we apply the Wav2Vec-2.0 self-supervised framework for automatic speech recognition to continuous seismic signals emanating from a sequence of moderate magnitude earthquakes during the 2018 caldera collapse at the Kīlauea volcano on the island of Hawai’i. We pre-train the Wav2Vec-2.0 model using caldera seismic waveforms and augment the model architecture to predict contemporaneous surface displacement during the caldera collapse sequence, a proxy for fault displacement. We find the model displacement predictions to be excellent. The model is adapted for near-future prediction information and found hints of prediction capability, but the results are not robust. The results demonstrate that earthquake faults emit seismic signatures in a similar manner to laboratory and numerical simulation faults, and artificial intelligence models developed for encoding audio of speech may have important applications in studying active fault zones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rapid wavefield forecasting for earthquake early warning via deep sequence to sequence learning

We propose a deep learning model, WaveCastNet, to forecast high-dimensional wavefields. WaveCastNet integrates a convolutional long expressive memory architecture into a sequence-to-sequence forecasting framework, enabling it to model long-term dependencies and multiscale patterns in both space and time. By sharing weights across spatial and temporal dimensions, WaveCastNet requires significantly fewer parameters than more resource-intensive models such as transformers, resulting in faster inference times. Crucially, WaveCastNet also generalizes better than transformers to rare and critical seismic scenarios, such as high-magnitude earthquakes. Here, we show the ability of the model to predict the intensity and timing of destructive ground motions in real time, using simulated data from the San Francisco Bay Area. Furthermore, we demonstrate its zero-shot capabilities by evaluating WaveCastNet on real earthquake data. Our approach does not require estimating earthquake magnitudes and epicenters, steps that are prone to error in conventional methods, nor does it rely on empirical ground-motion models, which often fail to capture strongly heterogeneous wave propagation effects.

Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

A machine learning estimator trained on synthetic data for real-time earthquake ground-shaking predictions in Southern California

Abstract After large-magnitude earthquakes, a crucial task for impact assessment is to rapidly and accurately estimate the ground shaking in the affected region. To satisfy real-time constraints, intensity measures are traditionally evaluated with empirical Ground Motion Models that can drastically limit the accuracy of the estimated values. As an alternative, here we present Machine Learning strategies trained on physics-based simulations that require similar evaluation times. We trained and validated the proposed Machine Learning-based Estimator for ground shaking maps with one of the largest existing datasets (<100M simulated seismograms) from CyberShake developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center covering the Los Angeles basin. For a well-tailored synthetic database, our predictions outperform empirical Ground Motion Models provided that the events considered are compatible with the training data. Using the proposed strategy we show significant error reductions not only for synthetic, but also for five real historical earthquakes, relative to empirical Ground Motion Models.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

ANN-based ground motion model for Turkey using stochastic simulation of earthquakes

SUMMARY Turkey is characterized by a high level of seismic activity attributed to its complex tectonic structure. The country has a dense network to record earthquake ground motions; however, to study previous earthquakes and to account for potential future ones, ground motion simulations are required. Ground motion simulation techniques offer an alternative means of generating region-specific time-series data for locations with limited seismic networks or regions with seismic data gaps, facilitating the study of potential catastrophic earthquakes. In this research, a local ground motion model (GMM) for Turkey is developed using region-specific simulated records, thus constructing a homogeneous data set. The simulations employ the stochastic finite-fault approach and utilize validated input-model parameters in distinct regions, namely Afyon, Erzincan, Duzce, Istanbul and Van. To overcome the limitations of linear regression-based models, artificial neural network is used to establish the form of equations and coefficients. The predictive input parameters encompass fault mechanism (FM), focal depth (FD), moment magnitude (Mw), Joyner and Boore distance (RJB) and average shear wave velocity in the top 30 m (Vs30). The data set comprises 7359 records with Mw ranging between 5.0 and 7.5 and RJB ranging from 0 to 272 km. The results are presented in terms of spectral ordinates within the period range of 0.03–2.0 s, as well as peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity. The quantification of the GMM uncertainty is achieved through the analysis of residuals, enabling insights into inter- and intra-event uncertainties. The simulation results and the effectiveness of the model are verified by comparing the predicted values of ground motion parameters with the observed values recorded during previous events in the region. The results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed model in simulating physical phenomena.

Karimzadeh, Shaghayegh (ORCID:0000000337531676)↗
DOE OSTI2021

T-wave propagation from the Pacific to the Atlantic: The 2020 Mw 7.4 Kermadec Trench earthquake case

An Mw7.4 submarine earthquake occurred in the Kermadec Trench, northeast of New Zealand, on 18 June, 2020. This powerful earthquake triggered energetic tertiary waves (T-waves) that propagated through the South Pacific Ocean into the South Atlantic Ocean, where the T-waves were recorded by a hydrophone station near Ascension Island, 15 127 km away from the epicenter. Different T-wave arrivals were identified during the earthquake period with arrival angles deviating from the geodesic path. A three-dimensional sound propagation model has been utilized to investigate the cause of the deviation and confirm the horizontal diffraction of the T-waves at the Drake Passage.

Oliveira, Tiago C. A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

3D fault architecture controls the dynamism of earthquake swarms

The vibrant evolutionary patterns made by earthquake swarms are incompatible with standard, effectively two-dimensional (2D) models for general fault architecture. Here we leverage advances in earthquake monitoring with a deep-learning algorithm to image a fault zone hosting a 4-year-long swarm in southern California. We infer that fluids are naturally injected into the fault zone from below and diffuse through strike-parallel channels while triggering earthquakes. A permeability barrier initially limits up-dip swarm migration but ultimately is circumvented. This enables fluid migration within a shallower section of the fault with fundamentally different mechanical properties. Our observations provide high-resolution constraints on the processes by which swarms initiate, grow, and arrest. These findings illustrate how swarm evolution is strongly controlled by 3D variations in fault architecture.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

EQSIM—A multidisciplinary framework for fault-to-structure earthquake simulations on exascale computers, part II: Regional simulations of building response

The existing observational database of the regional-scale distribution of strong ground motions and measured building response for major earthquakes continues to be quite sparse. As a result, details of the regional variability and spatial distribution of ground motions, and the corresponding distribution of risk to buildings and other infrastructure, are not comprehensively understood. Utilizing high-performance computing platforms, emerging high-resolution, physics-based ground motion simulations can now resolve frequencies of engineering interest and provide detailed synthetic ground motions at high spatial density. This provides an opportunity for new insight into the distribution of infrastructure seismic demands and risk. In the work presented herein, the EQSIM fault-to-structure computational framework described in a companion paper, McCallen et al., is employed to investigate the regional-scale response of buildings to large earthquakes. A representative M = 7.0 strike-slip event is used to explore the distribution and amplitude of building demand, and comparisons are made between building response computed with fault-to-structure simulations and building response computed with existing measured near-fault earthquake records. New information on the distribution and variability of building response from high-performance parallel simulations is described and analyzed, and favorable first comparisons between building response predicted with both fault-to-structure simulations and real ground motions records are presented.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wasatch Fault Structure from Machine Learning Arrival Times and High-Precision Earthquake Locations

Abstract On 18 March 2020, a magnitude 5.7 earthquake hit the Salt Lake valley in the state of Utah, United States. Using a dense geophone deployment and machine learning (ML), an additional several thousand events were detected and located. Currently, both the mainshock and the majority of the aftershocks are suspected to have occurred on or near a deeper portion of the Salt Lake segment of the Wasatch fault—part of a large range-bounding fault system thought to be capable of generating an Mw 7.2 earthquake. However, a small subset of aftershocks may have occurred on a portion of the more steeply, eastward dipping, and poorly understood West Valley fault. Unfortunately, the catalog locations and lack of focal mechanisms for this subset of aftershocks provide only a crude constraint on the true fault structure. To better illuminate fault structure, we relocate the ML-generated catalog with a range of magnitudes from −2 to 4.6, using: (1) NonLinLoc, a nonlinear location algorithm, (2) source-specific station terms, and (3) waveform coherence. We further compute first-motion focal mechanisms for 68 events. Results of the relocation suggest a simpler, minimally listric Wasatch fault geometry, contrary to what has been previously proposed. We also find that analysis of the focal mechanisms and waveform similarity indicates minimal event similarity throughout the Magna sequence, suggesting a highly complex and heterogeneous rupture zone, as opposed to rupture on a single plane. These findings suggest an increased seismic hazard due to the overall shallowness of the earthquake sequence and highly varied rupture mechanisms.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rupture Jumping and Seismic Complexity in Models of Earthquake Cycles for Fault Stepovers with Off-Fault Plasticity

ABSTRACT Fault stepovers are prime examples of geometric complexity in natural fault zones that may affect seismic hazard by determining whether an earthquake rupture continues propagating or abruptly stops. However, the long-term pattern of seismicity near-fault stepovers and underlying mechanisms of rupture jumping in the context of earthquake cycles are rarely studied. Leveraging a hybrid numerical scheme combining the finite element and the spectral boundary integral methods, FEBE, we carry out fully dynamic simulations of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip for both compressive and tensile stepovers with off-fault plasticity. We consider a rate-and-state friction law for the fault friction and pressure-sensitive Drucker–Prager plasticity for the off-fault bulk response. We observe that the accumulation of plastic deformation, an indication of off-fault damage, is significantly different in the two cases, with more plastic deformation projected in the overlapping region for the tensile stepover. The seismic pattern for a tensile stepover is more complex than for a compressive stepover, and incorporating plasticity also increases complexity, relative to the elastic case. A tensile stepover with off-fault plasticity shows rupture segmentation, temporal clustering, and frequent rupture jumping from one fault to another. These results shed light on possible mechanisms of rupture jumping in fault stepovers as well as the long-term evolution of the fault zone.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Factors That Influence Variability in Stress-Drop Measurements Using Spectral Decomposition and Spectral-Ratio Methods for the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

Stress drop is a fundamental parameter related to earthquake source physics, but is hard to measure accurately. To better understand how different factors influence stress-drop measurements, we compare two different methods using the Ridgecrest stress-drop validation data set: spectral decomposition (SD) and spectral ratio (SR), each with different processing options. Here, we also examine the influence of spectral complexity on source parameter measurement. Applying the SD method, we find that frequency bandwidth and time-window length could influence spectral magnitude calibration, while depth-dependent attenuation is important to correctly map stress-drop variations. For the SR method, we find that the selected source model has limited influence on the measurements; however, the Boatwright model tends to produce smaller standard deviation and larger magnitude dependence than the Brune model. Variance reduction threshold, frequency bandwidth, and time-window length, if chosen within an appropriate parameter range, have limited influence on source parameter measurement. For both methods, wave type, attenuation correction, and spectral complexity strongly influence the result. The scale factor that quantifies the magnitude dependence of stress drop show large variations with different processing options, and earthquakes with complex source spectra deviating from the Brune-type source models tend to have larger scale factor than earthquakes without complexity. Based on these detailed comparisons, we make a few specific suggestions for data processing workflows that could help future studies of source parameters and interpretations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reply to “Comment on ‘The Reduced Detection Rate of Signals That Are Hidden by Earthquakes: Case Studies with Spotlight Detectors That Operate at Seismic Arrays,’ by Joshua D. Carmichael, Brent G. Delbridge, and Richard Alfaro-Diaz” by Paul G. Richards

We reply to a comment that Paul G. Richards (Richards, 2026) directed to an article by Carmichael et al. (2025). Richards expressed concern over two issues. The first issue relates to the size of the explosions discussed in the article. The second relates to the probability that earthquakes and explosions sourced near the same location coincide in time, by chance. We do not address the first issue because the original article does not assign significance to the size of the explosions from the point of view of an experimental party. We do respond to Richards’ comment on the second issue and claim that it can be explained through a clarification about conditional versus joint probabilities. Our present discussion, therefore, describes the difference between the conditional probability that a correlator fails, given that an explosion and earthquake coincidently occur in the same place, and the joint probability that a correlator fails while an earthquake and explosion also coincidentally occur in the same place. This latter, joint probability appears to be rare. We clarify that our original article did not treat the joint probability, only the conditional probability.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global Characteristics of Observable Foreshocks for Large Earthquakes

Abstract Foreshocks are the only currently widely identified precursory seismic behavior, yet their utility and even identifiability are problematic, in part because of extreme variation in behavior. Here, we establish some global trends that help identify the expected frequency of foreshocks as well the type of earthquake most prone to foreshocks. We establish these tendencies using the global earthquake catalog of the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center with a completeness level of magnitude 5 and mainshocks with Mw≥7.0. Foreshocks are identified using three clustering algorithms to address the challenge of distinguishing foreshocks from background activity. The methods give a range of 15%–43% of large mainshocks having at least one foreshock but a narrower range of 13%–26% having at least one foreshock with magnitude within two units of the mainshock magnitude. These observed global foreshock rates are similar to regional values for a completeness level of magnitude 3 using the same detection conditions. The foreshock sequences have distinctive characteristics with the global composite population b-values being lower for foreshocks than for aftershocks, an attribute that is also manifested in synthetic catalogs computed by epidemic-type aftershock sequences, which intrinsically involves only cascading processes. Focal mechanism similarity of foreshocks relative to mainshocks is more pronounced than for aftershocks. Despite these distinguishing characteristics of foreshock sequences, the conditions that promote high foreshock productivity are similar to those that promote high aftershock productivity. For instance, a modestly higher percentage of interplate mainshocks have foreshocks than intraplate mainshocks, and reverse faulting events slightly more commonly have foreshocks than normal or strike-slip-faulting mainshocks. The western circum-Pacific is prone to having slightly more foreshock activity than the eastern circum-Pacific.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Earthquake Source Parameters with 3D Wavespeed Models in California and Nevada

Seismic tomography harnesses earthquake data to explore the inaccessible structure of the Earth. Adjoint waveform tomography (AWT), a method of seismic tomography, updates the tomographic model by optimizing the fit between observed earthquake data and synthetic waveforms. The synthetic data are calculated by solving the wave equation through a given 3D model. An important requirement to calculating synthetics is the source information (location, centroid time, depth, and moment tensor). Errors in source information affect the quality of the synthetics produced, which in turn can limit how structure can be inferred in the AWT workflow. Here, to test the effect of updating source information, we used MTTime (Chiang, 2020), a time-domain full-waveform moment tensor inversion code, to calculate the moment tensors and depths of 118 earthquakes that occurred in California and Nevada over a 20-yr period. We calculated 3D Green’s functions using a 3D seismic wavespeed model of California and Nevada (Doody et al., 2023b). We show that the inverted solutions provide better waveform fits than the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog and increase usable, well-correlated data by up to 7%. Therefore, we argue that recalculating source parameters should be considered in AWT workflows, particularly for smaller magnitude events (⁠M w > 5.0).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seismo-Acoustic Wave Simulation for the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake

It is well known that underground explosions or earthquakes can generate infrasound in the atmosphere. Seismoacoustic coupling between the ground motions and atmosphere is a key mechanism for infrasound generation. Epicentral infrasound which is direct response to epicentral ground motions are extensively studied for event detection and discrimination. Diffracted infrasound generated from Rayleigh waves are often observed and reported. Recent studies suggested the surface topography is also important for infrasound generation, and mountains or topographic peaks can act as effective secondary infrasound sources. In this study, we perform full 3-D seismoacoustic simulations to understand a coupled seismic and acoustic wave generation by an earthquake and energy partitioning across the solid Earth-ocean-atmosphere system. By including the effects of realistic topography, bathymetry, and earthquake focal mechanism, we provide quantitative information about seismoacoustic wavefields and secondary infrasound sources across the solid-water, solid-air, and water-air interfaces. Acoustic wave transmission across water-air interface is also investigated by using synthetic waveforms. Our study suggests that shallow seas near the coastline or over elevated seafloors can transmit significant amount of energy from acoustic waves in water and can be effective secondary infrasound sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seismo-Acoustic Wave Simulation for Earthquake-Generated Infrasound

It is well known that underground explosions or earthquakes can generate infrasound in the atmosphere. Seismoacoustic coupling between the ground motions and atmosphere is a key mechanism for infrasound generation. Epicentral infrasound which is direct response to epicentral ground motions are extensively studied for event detection and discrimination. Diffracted infrasound generated from Rayleigh waves are often observed and reported. Recent studies suggested the surface topography is also important for infrasound generation, and mountains or topographic peaks can act as effective secondary infrasound sources. In this study, we perform full 3-D seismoacoustic simulations to understand a coupled seismic and acoustic wave generation by an earthquake and energy partitioning across the solid Earthocean-atmosphere system. By including the effects of realistic topography, bathymetry, and earthquake focal mechanism, we provide quantitative information about seismoacoustic wavefields and secondary infrasound sources across the solid-water, solid-air, and water-air interfaces. Acoustic wave transmission across water-air interface is also investigated by using synthetic waveforms. Our study suggests that shallow seas near the coastline or over elevated seafloors can transmit significant amount of energy from acoustic waves in water and can be effective secondary infrasound sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗