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At least 127 records · Page 7

Beirut Explosion Yield and Mushroom Cloud Height - Effects of the Source Environment

I use crater dimensions to estimate the yield of the August 4th, 2020 Beirut explosion to be equivalent to approximately 1.4 kilotons of TNT with a lower bound of about 0.7 kilotons. Based on the amount of ammonium nitrate reported to have been stored at the Beirut harbor, I assume an upper bound for the yield of 2.75 kilotons. However, it is highly likely that the yield was less than 2.75 kilotons, since reported values for TNT equivalence of ammonium nitrate are typically much less than one hundred percent. The crater-size based yield estimates are based on crater radius estimates from satellite imagery and empirical curves and data for scaled crater radius from past chemical and nuclear explosions. I present evidence that suggests that the relatively large crater radius is due to a high degree of coupling of shock wave energy to the surrounding medium and a reduction of the effective stress because of a high level of saturation of the geologic media beneath the explosion. I provide yield estimates based on seismic body-wave magnitude and crater depth as corroborating evidence. I compare preliminary estimates for the maximum debris cloud height, based on cell phone videos/images, with predicted maximum heights for this yield range from empirical formulas and numerical cloud-rise models. Based on a preliminary analysis of cell phone footage, the observed maximum cloud height appears to be approximately 1600 m. This is much lower than that predicted using standard empirical formulas and buoyant cloud rise models. I present results from a modified buoyant cloud rise model that more accurately predicts the maximum cloud height by allowing for the inclusion of a fixed amount of air and/or water into the fireball at the start of cloud rise. The amount of mass that needs to be added at the start, to reproduce the observed maximum cloud height, is relatively small compared to the total mass entrained during cloud rise. A much greater amount of dry air or debris is required, relative to water, for an equivalent reduction in maximum cloud height. The ammonium nitrate is one possible source for water in the fireball since it was being stored in a very humid environment and ammonium nitrate is known to be hygroscopic. The ground beneath the explosion, especially if it were saturated, and the nearby harbor could also have been sources for water or debris in the fireball.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Designing Yield Grids for Airborne Nuclear Explosions to Maintain Decrements in Rayleigh Waveform Amplitudes

This document details a method for selecting grid points that sample the yields of airborne, low yield nuclear explosions that constrains the relative size of seismic waveforms sourced by explosions that are parameterized by this grid. In detail, we impose this constraint so that the vertical component of ground displacement that is sourced by explosions with a fixed height of burst (HoB) at grid point k change by a fixed factor of a when compared to the waveform amplitudes sourced by explosions at grid point k + 1, as observed at a fixed standoff distance. This gridding thereby preserves amplitude ratios along the grid so that they are agnostic to k. We assert that this method is useful in tests that apply algorithms against synthetic or augmented datasets for which the performance of the algorithm must be measured against source size, and waveform amplitudes must change uniformly (e.g., Berg et al, 2025).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Primordial Black Hole Triggered Type Ia Supernovae. I. Impact on Explosion Dynamics and Light Curves

Primordial black holes (PBHs) in the asteroid-mass window are compelling dark matter candidates, made plausible by the existence of black holes and by the variety of mechanisms of their production in the early Universe. If a PBH falls into a white dwarf (WD), the strong tidal forces can generate enough heat to trigger a thermonuclear runaway explosion, depending on the WD’s mass and the PBH’s orbital parameters. In this work, we investigate the WD explosion triggered by the passage of a PBH. We perform 2D simulations of the WD undergoing thermonuclear explosion in this scenario, with the predicted ignition site as a parameter assuming the deflagration–detonation transition model. We study the explosion dynamics, and predict the associated light curves and nucleosynthesis. We find that the model sequence predicts light curves which align with the Phillips relation (B max versus ΔM 15 ). Our models hint at a unifying approach in triggering Type Ia supernovae without involving two distinctive evolutionary tracks.

Dark matter↗

Standing Shock Regulates Sparks in Explosive Flows

Electric sparks and explosive flows have long been associated with each other. Flowing dust particles originate charge through contact electrification and separate based on inertia, resulting in strong electric fields supporting sparks. These sparks can cause explosions in dusty environments, especially those rich in carbon, such as coal mines and grain elevators. Recent observations of explosive events in nature and decompression experiments indicate that supersonic flows of explosions may alter the electrical discharge process. Shocks may suppress parts of the hierarchy of the discharge phenomena, such as leaders. In our decompression experiments, a shock tube ejects a flow of gas and particles into an expansion chamber. We imaged an illuminated plume from the decompression of a mixture of argon and < 100 mg of diamond particles. We also performed hydrodynamics simulations of the decompression event that provide insight into the conditions supporting the observed behavior. The sparks occur below the sharp boundary of a condensation cloud. These results agree closely with the Mach disk shock shape and height in the simulation. This represents direct evidence that the sparks are sculpted by the outflow. The spatial and temporal scale of the sparks transmit an impression of the shock tube flow, a connection that could enable novel instrumentation to diagnose currently inaccessible supersonic granular phenomena.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Cookoff of Powdered and Pressed Explosives using a Micromechanics Pressurization Model

Cookoff experiments of powdered and pressed TATB-based plastic bonded explosives (PBXs) have been modeled using a pressure-dependent universal cookoff model (UCM) in combination with a micromechanics pressurization (MMP) model described in a companion paper. The MMP model is based on the accumulation of decomposition gases at nucleation sites that load the surrounding TATB crystals and binder. This is the first cookoff model to use an analytical mechanics solution for compressibility and thermal expansion to describe internal pressurization caused by both temperature and decomposition occurring within closed-pore explosives. This approach produces more accurate predictions of ignition time and pressurization within high-density explosives than simple equation-of-state models. The current paper gives details of the reaction chemistry, model parameters, predicted uncertainty, and validation using experiments from multiple laboratories with errors less than 6 %. The UCM/MMP model framework gives more accurate thermal ignition predictions for high density explosives that are initially impermeable to decomposition gases.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

In the nuclear explosion monitoring context, what is an anomaly?

Abstract In the early years of nuclear explosion monitoring, experts used downwind detections with meaningful ratios of radioactive species to identify an explosion. Today’s reality is sparse networks of radionuclide monitoring stations looking for weak signals. Analysts need to discriminate between industrial background radioactivity and nuclear explosion signals, even using the detection of one isotope. Aerosol and xenon measurements potentially related to nuclear tests in 2006 and 2013 announced by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and from worldwide civilian background radioactivity are considered when defining radionuclide detection anomalies to objectively guide the use of limited analyst resources and reduce the possibility of not detecting nuclear explosions.

Miley, Harry S.↗

A comparison of long-term 37 Ar and 39 Ar transport and implications for 39 Ar as a persistent indicator of underground nuclear explosions

Measurements were first made in 2016 of legacy 39 Ar gas from the decades-old Barnwell underground nuclear explosion site within the Nevada National Security Site. This has raised the question of the ubiquity of the radionuclide 39 Ar following underground nuclear explosions in general locations. This article presents a high-level evaluation of the scientific case for using 39 Ar as a long-term indicator of underground nuclear explosions. Assessment is made based on a broad set of assumptions to reasonably estimate the persistence of 39 Ar in the subsurface environment following an explosion to establish potential detectability years to decades after the originating event.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

A novel ignition model for low velocity impact of heterogeneous explosives based on interacting hot spots

While numerous studies have focused on the ignition of explosives occurring in high velocity impact and the associated shock-to-detonation transition, there has been growing interest in developing computational models focused on low-velocity impact regimes. A predictive low-velocity impact ignition model will be important for analyzing high explosive safety and potential accident scenarios. This work introduces a novel ignition model based on the concept of thermally interacting hot spots to simulate low velocity impacted heterogeneous explosives where observed ignition times are on the order of milliseconds. The model asserts that relevant hot spots are micron-sized, the typical separation between neighboring hot spots is on the order of a hundred microns, and that neighbors interact thermally through heat conduction across the interstitial region between them. To achieve tractable numerical solutions, hot spots are assumed to form a periodic array as opposed to the highly irregular positioning in an actual explosive. This idealization allows a single two hotspot system to characterize the ignition process. Consequently, the model is referred to as the two hot spot Frank-Kamenetskii ignition model. In the present study, hot spots are modeled as constant heat sources terms, but this can be extended to include grain-scale phenomena like frictional heating of micron-sized growing cracks that are confined under high pressure. Because the micron-sized features are below the scale that can be efficiently resolved at a systems level, an efficient subscale scheme based on the Method of Weighted Residuals (MWR) is used to efficiently solve the equations. In conclusion, we carry out numerical examples and analytic predictions illustrating the accuracy and the functioning of the model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Single-Atom Doping at the Molecule–Metal Interface: How Rh Affects Surface Explosion Kinetics

Controlling chemical reactions at interfaces is central to many fields, including atmospheric, environmental, and biological chemistry as well as catalysis and corrosion. We performed a fundamental study of how catalytically active Rh atoms placed at and above a molecule-metal interface influence the surface reaction kinetics of tartaric acid (TA) decomposition. Specifically, TA decomposition on Cu(100) exhibits autocatalytic decomposition kinetics involving a slow initiation step followed by fast decomposition of the molecular layer. These so-called “surface explosions” are extremely sensitive to initial conditions, making it fundamentally interesting to study how the placement of reactive atoms affects the reaction rate. Temperature-programmed reaction (TPR) experiments reveal that Rh atoms embedded in the Cu(100) surface beneath TA (TA/Rh/Cu) or atop the TA layer (Rh/TA/Cu) reduce the decomposition temperature and modify the reaction rate constants. Isothermal TPR analysis reveals that Rh enhances both the initiation rate constant, k i , and the explosion rate constant, k e , facilitating explosive decomposition at lower temperatures. This result provides evidence that both the initiation and explosion steps occur at the metal-molecule interface and are accelerated by the presence of Rh at this interface. This study illustrates how small amounts of reactive elements may be used to control nonlinear kinetic processes at interfaces.

desorption↗

An In Situ , Automated High-Explosives Aging Method Utilizing Two-Dimensional Gas Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry

Understanding chemical changes that occur in high explosives as they age is of great importance to the safe employment and storage of these compounds. Traditional methods of aging high explosives even under accelerated aging conditions are time intensive with durations on the order of months to years. The nature of traditional aging analyses reduces each sample to a snapshot data point often separated widely in time, requiring many assumptions as to how the degradation products develop. Further complicating matters, several analytical techniques are typically employed for each sample analysis in order to ascertain an entire picture of the decomposition pathways. To address these shortcomings with existing methods, a new method of accelerated aging of high explosives utilizing comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled to high-resolution mass spectrometry (GC × GC-HRMS) was developed using 2,4,6,8,10,12-hexanitro-2,4,6,8,10,12-hexaazaisowurtzitane (CL-20) as a model compound for method development. This in situ automated method reduces the time scale of aging to a matter of hours using the inlet of the GC × GC as the aging vessel. GC × GC in combination with HRMS allowed for the collection of both evolved gases and other decomposition products produced during the entire aging process in real time with HRMS providing far greater certainty in identification of explosives aging products. Additionally, this method allowed for a higher throughput of samples with greatly simplified sample preparation. Chemometric analysis of the GC × GC-HRMS data set via the alteration analysis (ALA) enabled discovery of statistically significant chemical changes providing insight into the variation of decomposition pathways with varying aging temperatures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Global Nuclear Explosion Discrimination Using a Convolutional Neural Network

Using P-wave seismograms, we trained a seismic source classifier using a Convolutional Neural Network. We trained for three classes: earthquake P-wave, underground nuclear explosion (UNE) P-wave, and noise. With the current absence of nuclear testing by countries that have signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, high quality seismic data from UNEs is limited. Even with limited training data, our model can accurately characterize most events recorded at regional and teleseismic distances, finding over 95% signals in the validation set. We applied the model on holdout datasets of the North Korean test explosions to evaluate the performance on unique region and station-source pairs, with promising results. Additionally, we tested on the Source Physics Experiment events to investigate the potential for chemical explosions to act as a surrogate for nuclear explosions. We anticipate that machine-learning models like our classifier system can have broad application for other seismic signals including volcanic and non-volcanic tremor, anomalous earthquakes, ice-quakes or landslide-quakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Predicting multiphase flow and tracer transport for an underground chemical explosive test

Detecting radionuclide gas seepage from clandestine underground nuclear tests is central to nonproliferation explosion monitoring research. Yet, early-time (<6 day) gas transport driven by the explosive pressure wave remains poorly constrained due to scarcity of field data. We simulate multi-phase gas transport in the vadose zone using pre-shot data from a recent chemical explosion in P-Tunnel at the Nevada National Security Site, USA. Despite using a simplified 2D-radial model, predictions of tracer arrival matched observations within one order-of-magnitude. Our results show how transient blast forcing rapidly mobilizes gases from the cavity into surrounding rock – critical for optimizing sensor placement and test planning. This unique integration of field data and modeling represents a significant improvement in our ability to predict gas migration from underground explosions. More broadly, it offers insights into the coupled dynamics of pressure waves and contaminant transport in the vadose zone, with implications for monitoring and hazard assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On various mechanisms of shear wave generation from underground chemical explosions in hard rocks

Significant shear waves observed during underground explosions can make them look similar to natural earthquakes. In the near field, they can be caused by the source geometry and emplacement conditions, heterogeneous and anisotropic properties of the rock mass, relaxation of a non-uniform in situ stress around the source after the departure of the shock wave as well as by activation of nearby faults. Here, the stress relaxation mechanism is important at depth when the difference in main principal stresses becomes significant. Another mechanism of shear motion generation is due to explosive gas flow from the source cavity into the cracks initiated by the shock wave and joints connected to the cavity. Also, the shock wave from the explosion can cause weakening of the rock either due to permanent damage or shock-induced liquefaction at saturated joints. Numerical modelling of underground chemical explosions in hard rock at various confinement stresses has been conducted to compare various mechanisms of shear wave generation and their seismic characteristics with that of a simple fault rupture process observed during an earthquake.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Constraining Type Ia supernova explosions and early flux excesses with the Zwicky Transient Factory

In the new era of time-domain surveys, Type Ia supernovae are being caught sooner after explosion, which has exposed significant variation in their early light curves. Two driving factors for early-time evolution are the distribution of 56 Ni in the ejecta and the presence of flux excesses of various causes. We perform an analysis of the largest young SN Ia sample to date. We compare 115 SN Ia light curves from the Zwicky Transient Facility to the turtls model grid containing light curves of Chandrasekhar mass explosions with a range of 56 Ni masses, 56 Ni distributions, and explosion energies. We find that the majority of our observed light curves are well reproduced by Chandrasekhar mass explosion models with a preference for highly extended 56 Ni distributions. We identify six SNe Ia with an early-time flux excess in our gr-band data (four ‘blue’ and two ‘red’ flux excesses). We find an intrinsic rate of 18 ± 11 percent of early flux excesses in SNe Ia at z < 0.07, based on three detected flux excesses out of 30 (10 percent) observed SNe Ia with a simulated efficiency of 57 percent. This is comparable to rates of flux excesses in the literature but also accounts for detection efficiencies. Two of these events are mostly consistent with circumstellar material interaction, while the other four have longer lifetimes in agreement with companion interaction and 56 Ni-clump models. We find a higher frequency of flux excesses in 91T/99aa-like events (44 ± 13 percent).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Study on the Shock Wave Propagation Rule of a Gas Explosion in a Gas Compartment

Combined with the k-ε turbulence model of general application, a refined finite element model of a utility tunnel’s gas compartment filled with the methane/air mixture is developed. A series of analyses are made by using the powerful industry-leading computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software flame acceleration simulator (FLACS) to study the shock wave propagation rule in the gas compartment. The longitudinal and transversal distribution laws of the explosion shock wave are gained taking into consideration the spatial characteristics of the gas compartment. The influences of a few parameters, such as initial conditions and section size of the gas compartment, on the shock wave propagation rule are further discussed. The basic procedure for predicting the peak pressure of the blast wave is provided by considering the initial conditions and the gas compartment, and the corresponding injury effect of the explosion wave on the living beings is assessed. The investigation demonstrates that the peak pressure by the coupled effect between the initial conditions is significantly influenced, especially at the upper and lower gas explosion limits. The peak pressure increases gradually as the width or height increases, and both basically meet the linear relation. The proposed method can forecast the peak pressure of the explosion shock wave in the gas compartment accurately. According to the peak pressure longitudinal and transversal distributions of the blast wave, the peak pressure is far greater than the killing pressure threshold in the underground and closed space; consequently, it is not safe for the living beings in the gas compartment.

Lin, Shu-Chao↗

The Effects of Assumed Source Depth and Shear-Wave Velocity on Moment Tensors Estimated for Small, Contained Chemical Explosions in Granite

ABSTRACT The Source Phenomenology Experiment (SPE-Arizona) included of a series of chemical explosions detonated within a copper mine in Arizona. This study focuses on ground motions from detonations in the copper mine, which are analyzed to assess the uniqueness of the resulting source representation when the source region propagation characteristics have a range of possible models. P-wave velocities are well constrained by refraction data with less constraint of the S-wave velocities. The effects of explosion source depth and VS are assessed with Green’s functions for a range of models in which VP is held constant. Propagation models with a Poisson’s value of 0.25 and a source depth 30–60 m most accurately replicate the data. The explosion was detonated at a centroid depth of 30 m, so trade-offs in depth are demonstrated. The compensated linear vector dipole and explosion components of the Green’s functions convolved with a Mueller–Murphy source function are compared. Both produce significant energy in the 2–12 Hz band, due to surface-wave contributions with no clear depth dependencies above 20 Hz. The range of propagation models is used with the observational data to invert for the frequency-domain moment tensor. Fits to the data from these inversions have cross-correlation values of 0.64, demonstrating effectiveness in replicating the observations with the assumed propagation path effects and resulting source function. Inversions produce horizontal dipoles (Mxx and Myy), roughly half the maximum amplitude of Mzz, consistent with a compensated linear vector dipole source, which is frequency dependent. Denny and Johnson, Mueller–Murphy, Walter and Ford, and the revised Mueller–Murphy source models, parameterized for granite, are compared to the moment tensors. Despite a nonisotropic moment tensor source, the revised Mueller–Murphy isotropic source model best replicates the long-period moments, overshoot, and corner frequency.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Explosive Yield Estimation Using Regional Seismic Moment Tensors

Here, we use the Pasyanos and Chiang (2022) data set to calculate the seismic moment M 0 for each explosion and use the measured explosive yield W to validate the W~M 0 relationship in Denny and Johnson (1991; hereafter, DJ91). The M 0 is corrected by transforming to a potency tensor and applying more appropriate near-source geophysical parameter values in the moment estimate. The mean residual between observed and predicted yield is near zero; however, the standard deviation of the residuals results in an F-value (a 95% confidence factor) of about 5. We re-estimate the coefficients in the DJ91 model and find similar values and only a slight improvement in the F-value. Next, we embark on a similar model selection process as DJ91, allowing for non-cube-root yield scaling and other plausible near-source elastic moduli. As was found by DJ91, the yield dependence is not significantly different from unity, and a cube root assumption is valid. Therefore, we yield scale the seismic moment and test the significance of all plausible explanatory variables. Isotropic moment performs better in the response variable than total moment. The preference for isotropic moment could be due to its relationship to volume change, which would be more directly affected by explosive yield. Surprisingly, we find that the overburden pressure, which is a function of depth, is not a significant parameter in the model. We hypothesize that this is due to the competing depth effects on source asymmetry and the incorporation of depth in the Green’s functions used to calculate the seismic moment tensors. Importantly, this emphasizes that only seismic moment tensor-derived moments should be used in these models. After removing insignificant model parameters, we are left with a simple model to predict explosive yield $\widehat{W}$ in kt from isotropic moment M I in N·m, $\widehat{W}$=κ –1.4132 10 0.035626GP M I , in which κ and GP are the near-source bulk modulus and gas porosity in Pa and %, respectively. The F-value for this model is approximately 3.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

On Magnitudes and Inferred Yields of the 39 Underground Nuclear Test Explosions at the Novaya Zemlya Test Site

ABSTRACT We review the previously compiled seismic magnitudes for underground nuclear explosions at the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics Novaya Zemlya Test Site, and analyze these data in the context of published details about individual tests and official Russian reports of annual cumulative explosive energy release at the test site. We derive relationships between teleseismic body wave magnitude mb and explosive yield Y by predicting the yield of each test using mb and minimizing the difference between predicted and reported annual cumulative yield. A linear relationship between mb and logY with a slope of 0.82 provides a good fit to the annual total yield, with a root mean square (rms) misfit of 0.095 logY units. A spectral magnitude relationship based on the explosion source model of Mueller and Murphy (1971) with a single-free-parameter provides a slightly better fit. For the 10 tests for which individual yields can be directly deduced from the official reports, the rms misfit of reported yields is less than 0.1 logY units or about 25%. More complex relationships that differentiate between the northern and southern test areas, or take account of variations in the scaled depth of burial, do not provide substantially better fits to the reported yields.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗