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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Development of the European Service Module Propulsion Subsystem for the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle

2013, NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) entered into an international partnership to develop the European Service Module (ESM) for use on NASA's Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), also known as Orion. The MPCV will be used as the principal spacecraft for future human space exploration missions beyond low earth orbit. The ESM Propulsion Subsystem (PSS) is a pressure-fed, bi-propellant propulsion system, being developed by Airbus Defense and Space under contract to ESA. For this effort, NASA is responsible for the traditional role of insight/oversight to ensure that the PSS delivered by Airbus meets all MPCV Program requirements. In addition, the NASA Propulsion team also has some unique responsibilities that are a result of the Implementing Agreement (IA) between NASA and ESA for development of the ESM. These responsibilities include: (1) providing the main engine and Thrust Vector Control (TVC) assembly for the PSS. This is being accomplished through the delta qualification and re-use the Space Shuttle Orbital Maneuvering System (OMS) engine and TVC assembly; (2) procurement and delivery of the Auxiliary engines (R-4Ds) for the PSS. These engines are being procured by NASA from Aerojet-Rocketdyne via Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for the MPCV, per an Airbus-provided specification; and (3) conducting the integrated systems hot-fire test which will qualify the end-to-end PSS for flight on MPCV. This test is being conducted at the NASA White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) using an Airbus-provided test article known as the Propulsion Qualification Model (PQM).

Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle↗
NASA NTRS2018

Development and Qualification of the Primary Structure of the Orion European Service Module

This paper presents an overview of the development and qualification test campaign for the primary structure of the European Service Module of ORION, the NASA spacecraft which will serve the future human exploration missions to the Moon, Mars and beyond. Under an agreement between NASA and ESA, the ORION will be powered by a European Service Module (ESM), providing also water and oxygen for astronauts' life sustainability. The development and qualification of the European Service Module (ESM) is under ESA responsibility with Airbus Defense and Space as the prime contractor. Thales Alenia Space Italia is responsible for design development, manufacturing, assembly and qualification of the Structure subsystem. The European Service Module, installed onto the launch adapter, shall support the crew module with its adapter and a launch abort system. It shall sustain: - A combination of global and local launch loads during lift off and ascent phases, - On orbit loads induced by engine firing for orbital transfers and attitude control. The ESM structure is based on a core made of Composite Fiber Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) sandwich panels complemented by aluminum alloy platforms, longerons and secondary structures. A development campaign has been implemented in order to define and validate composite parts' strength allowable values for design: coupon tests at material level, test at component level up to breadboards tests performed on main structural components (composite to metallic joints, and at panels' discontinuities). An incremental approach as defined in [1] has been followed. A qualification static test campaign at primary structure assembly level has been implemented in order to validate the design against static stiffness and ultimate strength as well as to correlate the structural Finite Element Model (FEM) used for sizing and confirm the margins of safety. The tests have been performed successfully by Thales Alenia Space Italia (TAS-I) on two flight representative structural models (STA1, STA2), in Turin facilities (Italy) between August 2015 and March 2017, with engineering support of technical representatives from Airbus, ESA, NASA and LMCO. The main development and qualification test activities and associated results are presented and discussed in the paper

Structural Testing↗
NASA NTRS2018

Initial Criticality Assessments to Guide FMEAs on Rocket Engine Hot Fire Testing

Presented is an explanation of the use of the Initial Criticality Assessment (ICA) technique, a triage process for prioritizing required Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEAs), for the European Service Module's main propulsion system's hot-fire test bed at White Sands New Mexico. Rather than instinctively performing many FMEAs of subsystems, or one large system level FMEA where every subcomponent is analyzed, the ICA guided an informed analysis of only the hardware that had a large impact to hazards. The low criticality hardware was documented via the ICA and no FMEA was performed; the work could then focus on the high criticality hardware. Thus a savings of Program resources was achieved. The experiences gained in creating these ICAs for this international collaborative project confirmed that the need for continuous communication across the technical teams is one of the greatest areas of emphasis. The European Space Agency (ESA) is developing the European Service Module (ESM), with its primary contractor, Airbus Defence and Space in Germany, for delivery to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The module will be equipped with a total of 21 engines to support NASA’s Orion spacecraft: one U.S. Space Shuttle Orbital Maneuvering System-Engine (OMS-E), eight auxiliary thrusters and 12 smaller RCS (Reaction Control System) thrusters. The main ESM propulsion system, used for large translational maneuvers, consists of one OMS-E... To qualify the design of the ESM propulsion subsystem (PSS) an all-steel Propulsion Qualification Module (PQM) structure is used to test the propulsion systems on Orion, including “hot firing” of the OMS engine, thrusters, and RCS. The PQM has been developed as a hot-fire test bed to be tested at the NASA White Sands Test Facility (WSTF). One of the objectives of the testing is to assure that the OMS-E can be safely operated with the PQM. Testing will also demonstrate that the PQM can set the proper upstream pressures and temperatures for the OMS-E to operate nominally given the PQM has never been tested in hot-fire operation with OMS-E before. In order to safely conduct the test campaign, hardware such as the engine subassembly, fluid feed lines, valves, electrical power lines, instrumentation, stiff links, installation Ground Support Equipment (GSE), and diffuser [whose objectives are to collect the exhaust of the OMS-E to actively cool down the exhaust gases, reduce thermal exchanges, and create a vacuum at OMS-E level before igniting], had to be analyzed for any hazards and failure modes.

Fault Tolerance↗
NASA NTRS2020

The Flexible Lunar Architecture for Exploration (FLARE): Designed for the Artemis-3 Moon 2024 Mission and Beyond

The Flexible Lunar Architecture for Exploration (FLARE) is a concept to deliver four crew to the lunar surface for 7 to 14 days and then return them safely to Earth by 2024. This meets NASA’s internal 2024 lunar landing deadline directed by President Trump (Trump, 2017) and the “5-year” goal set forth by Vice President Pence (Pence, 2019). FLARE is an alternative to NASA’s Human Landing System reference architecture from the Design Analysis Cycle (DAC) #2 (NASA, 2019b). The minimum FLARE concept uses one Space Launch System launch, one Orion, one European Service Module (ESM), and one human lander to deliver four crew to the Moon for a minimum surface duration of 7 days and return them to Earth. FLARE adds a new capability, called the SpaceTug, based upon the mature and successful United Launch Alliance “Common” Centaur Upper Stage vehicle, with modifications. In FLARE, the SpaceTug provides propulsion needed to return the Orion+ESM from the Moon to Earth. The SpaceTug also provides propulsion to deliver the human lander Descent Element (DE) and Ascent Element (AE) separately to lunar orbit. The Orion+ESM then completes a rendezvous with the mated DE+AE in lunar orbit. FLARE also offers optional phases to the Moon 2024 mission. The SpaceTug can also deliver components of the planned Gateway - including the Power and Propulsion Element and the Habitation and Logistics Outpost - to lunar orbit; however, the planned FLARE destination is a Low Lunar Frozen Polar Orbit unlike the NASA DAC2 plan for a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit. FLARE also provides an option to deliver precursor equipment - including a habitation module, crew mobility devices and an In-Situ Resource Utilization demonstration - to the lunar surface for enhanced crew exploration and science with the extended 14-day surface mission.

Commercial Launch Vehicles (CLV)↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modal Propellant Gauging: High-resolution and non-invasive gauging of both settled and unsettled liquids in reduced gravity.

The modal response of a liquid-filled tank to external acoustic excitation can be used to infer with high resolutionthe mass of contained liquid, the mass flow rate of liquids into and out of the tank, and changes in tank pressure.Both contained liquid mass and internal ullage pressure affect the modal response of the tank walls through fluidmass-loading of the tank walls and pressure-induced wall stiffening, respectively. Modal Propellant Gauging refersto the technology that exploits these shifts in modal frequencies to infer the mass of propellant in a tank. MPG is anon-invasive gauging technology that has demonstrated gauging resolutions of 1% for settled propellants and 2-3%for unsettled, sloshing propellants. Extensive parabolic flight testing of the MPG system on model tanks has beenconducted to validate the technology in reduced gravity. MPG testing on a qualification tank for the Orion Program'sEuropean Service Module has also been conducted and is reported here. Finite element modeling of the OrionESM "upper" tank is discussed and compared with measurement data. Three computational approaches to massdetermination, Peak Tracking, Point Sensor, and Spectral Density methods, are described here. Use cases are definedand analyzed in the context of the Orion ESM Qualification tank data, and an implementation scheme for continuousmass gauging on the Orion ESM is discussed.Keywords: Propellant Mass Gauging, Modal Analysis, Orion ESM

Propellant Mass Gauging↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Flexible Lunar Architecture for Exploration (FLARE) Supporting NASA’s Artemis Program

The Flexible Lunar Architecture for Exploration (FLARE) is a concept to deliver four crew to the lunar surface for a minimum of seven days and then return them safely to Earth. FLARE can be implemented whenever the component vehicles are operational. FLARE was developed as an alternative to NASA’s Human Landing System (HLS) reference architecture from the Design Analysis Cycle (DAC) #2 created in 2019. The DAC2 guidelines required utilization of the Gateway vehicle in a Near- Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO). Instead, FLARE chooses a Low Lunar Frozen Polar Orbit (LLFPO) for lunar rendezvous of components, and an optional Gateway vehicle. The LLFPO provides a stable orbit that overflies the south pole every 2 h, ensuring easy access to the lunar surface for surface aborts with a much lower propellant requirement than NRHO. The minimum FLARE concept uses one Space Launch System (SLS) launch, one Orion, one European Service Module (ESM), and one human lander (launched on commercial vehicle(s)). FLARE adds the SpaceTug, based upon the mature and successful ULA “Common” Centaur Upper Stage vehicle, with modifications to create an Earth-Moon transfer vehicle. In the FLARE baseline mission, the SpaceTug provides propulsion needed to return the Orion + ESM from LLFPO to Earth. The SpaceTug also provides propulsion to deliver the separate human lander components – the Descent Element (DE) and the Ascent Element (AE) - from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to LLFPO. The SLS Block 1 then launches the Orion + ESM and completes a rendezvous with the mated DE + AE components in LLFPO. FLARE offers optional phases beyond the baseline mission. The SpaceTug can deliver components of the planned Gateway, including the Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) and the Habitable and Logistics Outpost (HALO), to LLFPO. FLARE provides an option to deliver precursor equipment to the lunar surface to enhance and extend the human mission. With these components, including an inflatable habitation module and airlock, individual crew mobility vehicle(s), an In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) demonstration, and science and technology experiments, the crew can explore and conduct science on the lunar surface for up to 14 days.

Moon 2024↗
NASA NTRS2020

Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6

Purpose of Review The changes or updates in ocean biogeochemistry component have been mapped between CMIP5 and CMIP6 model versions, and an assessment made of how far these have led to improvements in the simulated mean state of marine biogeochemical models within the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs). Recent Findings The representation of marine biogeochemistry has progressed within the current generation of Earth system models. However, it remains difficult to identify which model updates are responsible for a given improvement. In addition, the full potential of marine biogeochemistry in terms of Earth system interactions and climate feedback remains poorly examined in the current generation of Earth system models. Summary Increasing availability of ocean biogeochemical data, as well as an improved understanding of the underlying processes, allows advances in the marine biogeochemical components of the current generation of ESMs. The present study scrutinizes the extent to which marine biogeochemistry components of ESMs have progressed between the 5th and the 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).

Marine Biogeochemistry↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Earth: Synthetic Spectranomics - Deep Learning of Surface 3-D Geometry, Chemistry, and Hyperspectra to Inform Next-generation Land Models

Machine and deep learning (ML/DL) have transformed our approach to Earth observation and system modeling (EOSM), unifying both in view of ML/DL models as a form of data assimilation (DA). Trained on diverse Earth observation records, detailed physical models, or hybrids of both in physics-informed machine learning, ML/DL may improve upon existing Earth system model (ESM) formulations while creating entirely new classes of models. One important application of deep learning is observation synthesis, allowing ESM developers to prepare for the increased spatial, temporal, and spectral/polar resolution of proposed future observing systems. This may involve the retrospective application of learning algorithms to existing observational records, with or without physical radiative transfer models, to co-inform mission planning and ESM development while providing a degree of data continuity for new missions.

Adam Erickson↗
NASA NTRS2020

Bias in CMIP6 Models as Compared to Observed Regional Dimming and Brightening

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions have increased considerably over the last century, but climate effects and quantification of the emissions are highly uncertain as one goes back in time. This uncertainty is partly due to a lack of observations in the pre-satellite era, making the observations we do have before 1990 additionally valuable. Aerosols suspended in the atmosphere scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation and thereby alter the Earth's surface energy balance. Previous studies show that Earth system models (ESMs) do not adequately represent surface energy fluxes over the historical era. We investigated global and regional aerosol effects over the time period 1961–2014 by looking at surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SDSR). We used observations from ground stations as well as multiple experiments from eight ESMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6). Our results show that this subset of models reproduces the observed transient SDSR well in Europe but poorly in China. We suggest that this may be attributed to missing emissions of sulfur dioxide in China, sulfur dioxide being a precursor to sulfate, which is a highly reflective aerosol and responsible for more reflective clouds. The emissions of sulfur dioxide used in the models do not show a temporal pattern that could explain observed SDSR evolution over China. The results from various aerosol emission perturbation experiments from DAMIP, RFMIP and AerChemMIP show that only simulations containing anthropogenic aerosol emissions show dimming, even if the dimming is underestimated. Simulated clear-sky and all-sky SDSR do not differ greatly, suggesting that cloud cover changes are not a dominant cause of the biased SDSR evolution in the simulations. Therefore we suggest that the discrepancy between modeled and observed SDSR evolution is partly caused by erroneous aerosol and aerosol precursor emission inventories. This is an important finding as it may help interpret whether ESMs reproduce the historical climate evolution for the right or wrong reason.

surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SDSR)↗
NASA NTRS2020

Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6

Human land use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth's surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community has developed the next generation of advanced Earth system models (ESMs) to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g., land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon–climate system. A new set of historical data based on the History of the Global Environment database (HYDE), and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015–2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, is required as input for these models. With most ESM simulations for CMIP6 now completed, it is important to document the land use patterns used by those simulations. Here we present results from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, which smoothly connects updated historical reconstructions of land use with eight new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land use patterns, underlying land use transitions, key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually, while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions and preserving changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds on a similar effort from CMIP5 and is now provided at higher resolution (0.25°×0.25°) over a longer time domain (850–2100, with extensions to 2300) with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management practices) using more input datasets (including Landsat remote sensing data) and updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation); it is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain > 50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5 and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land use on the global carbon–climate system.

land use land cover change↗
NASA NTRS2021

Investigations on the Anthropogenic Reversal of the Natural Ozone Gradient Between Northern and Southern Midlatitudes

Our quantitative understanding of natural tropospheric ozone concentrations is limited by the paucity of reliable measurements before the 1980s. We utilize the existing measurements to compare the long-term ozone changes that occurred within the marine boundary layer at northern and southern midlatitudes. Since 1950 ozone concentrations have increased by a factor of 2.1 ± 0.2 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and are presently larger than in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), where only a much smaller increase has occurred. These changes are attributed to increased ozone production driven by anthropogenic emissions of photochemical ozone precursors that increased with industrial development. The greater ozone concentrations and increases in the NH are consistent with the predominant location of anthropogenic emission sources in that hemisphere. The available measurements indicate that this interhemispheric gradient was much smaller and was likely reversed in the pre-industrial troposphere with higher concentrations in the SH. Six Earth system model (ESM) simulations indicate similar total NH increases (1.9 with a standard deviation of 0.3), but they occurred more slowly over a longer time period, and the ESMs do not find higher pre-industrial ozone in the SH. Several uncertainties in the ESMs may cause these model–measurement disagreements: the assumed natural nitrogen oxide emissions may be too large, the relatively greater fraction of ozone injected by stratosphere–troposphere exchange to the NH may be overestimated, ozone surface deposition to ocean and land surfaces may not be accurately simulated, and model treatment of emissions of biogenic hydrocarbons and their photochemistry may not be adequate.

natural tropospheric ozone concentrations↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Updates on the Predictive Materials Modeling Software Tools

Updates on NASA‘s efforts to build a Predictive Material Modeling (PMM) framework from the micro-scale to the macro-scale are presented in this abstract. The PMM effort is part of the Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) project under NASA’s Game Changing Development (GCD) program. To reduce the need for extensive testing and accelerate the design cycle process, ESM is developing simulation and modeling tools that enable the characterization of the properties of thermal protection materials and their response to extremely hot plasma. The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software has been developed to compute effective material properties and perform material response simulations on digitized microstructures of porous media. PuMA is able to import three-dimensional digital images obtained from X-ray microtomography or to generate artificial microstructures that mimic real materials. PuMA also provides a module for interactive 3D visualizations. Version 3, which was recently released as open-source, includes modules to compute simple morphological properties such as porosity, volume fractions, pore diameter, and specific surface area. Additional capabilities include the determination of effective thermal and electrical conductivity (both radiative and solid conduction - including the ability to simulate local anisotropy for the latter); effective diffusivity and tortuosity from the continuum to the rarefied regime; techniques to determine the local material orientation, as well as mechanical properties (elasticity coefficients), and permeability. Computed properties are then used to inform a macro-scale material response model, such as those implemented in the Porous material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO) software developed within ESM. The computational model in PATO is a generic heat and mass transfer model for porous reactive materials containing several solid phases and a single gas phase. The detailed chemical interactions occurring between the solid phases and the gas phase are modeled at the pore scale, assuming Local Thermal Equilibrium. Recent efforts include the development of a mechanical erosion model as well as a unified model allowing an intrinsic coupling between fluid and material. Comparison to flight data (Mars Science Laboratory [MSL] Entry Descent and Landing Instrument [MEDLI] and Mars 2020 MEDLI2) is critical in order to validate these computational tools. Examples of ablative material response using the code will be presented, including 3D simulations of the full-scale heatshield of the MSL capsule. The simulations demonstrated the ability of the modern material response code, PATO, to handle the material response of geometrically complex and large domains through the use of massively parallel computations.

material modeling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

New Developments In NASA’s Entry Systems Modeling Project

This paper describes recent developments for modeling entry, descent, and landing (EDL)of spacecraft in support of NASA’s exploration missions. Mission-specific research and model development for entry systems occurs across the Agency (e.g., within flight programs like Artemis/Orion and Mars Sample Return), however the aim of this paper is to discuss the research conducted by NASA’s Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) Project, which serves as the Agency’s only effort dedicated to advancing modeling capabilities that cross-cut multiple technical disciplines, missions and destinations. The ESM portfolio is developed to address the specific needs expressed by a cross-section of NASA stakeholders, including flight and research projects, technical leadership, and subject matter experts. Technology development in ESM is organized and prioritized from a system-level perspective, resulting in four broad technical areas of investment: (1) Thermal Protection System (TPS) material modeling, (2) Shock layer kinetics and radiation, (3) Aerosciences, and (4) Guidance, navigation, and control. In addition to the core technical areas, special topics are rolled into the project portfolio as specific demands arise. Current special topics include TPS Certification by Analysis, improving understanding of woven TPS material performance; Hypersonic Wake Flows, assessing and improving predictions of base flows; and the MEDLI2 Deep Dive, furthering analysis of data obtained during Mars2020 mission’s entry and descent at Mars. Key results from each of these areas are presented in this paper, along with associated references to serve as a roadmap for other EDL researchers to access NASA’s publications.

Aaron M Brandis↗
NASA NTRS2024

Aera-Mip: Emission Pathways, Remaining Budgets, and Carbon Cycle Dynamics Compatible With 1.5 and 2 °C Global Warming Stabilization

While international climate policies now focus on limiting global warming to well below 2 °C or pursuing a 1.5 °C level of global warming, the climate modelling community has not provided an experimental design in which all Earth system models (ESMs) converge and stabilize at the same prescribed global warming levels. This gap hampers accurate estimations based on comprehensive ESMs of the carbon emission pathways and budgets needed to meet such agreed warming levels and of the associated climate impacts under temperature stabilization. Here, we apply the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach (AERA) with ESMs to provide such simulations in which all models converge at 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming levels by adjusting their emissions over time. These emission-driven simulations provide a wide range of emission pathways and resulting atmospheric CO 2 projections for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges that were previously missing in the traditional Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) scenarios with prescribed greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Meeting the 1.5 °C warming level requires a 40 % (full model range: 7 % to 76 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -forcing-equivalent (CO 2 -fe) emissions from 2025 to 2030, a 98 % (57 % to 127 %) reduction from 2025 to 2050, and a stabilization at 1.0 (−1.7 to 2.9) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward after the 1.5 °C global warming level is reached. Meeting the 2.0 °C warming level requires a 47 % (8 % to 92 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -fe emissions until 2050 and a stabilization at 1.7 (−1.5 to 2.7) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward. The on-average positive emissions under stabilized global temperatures are the result of a decreasing transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 -fe emissions over time under stabilized global warming. This evolution is consistent with a slightly negative zero emissions commitment – initially assumed to be zero – and leads to an increase in the post-2025 CO 2 -fe emission budget by a factor of 2.2 (−0.8 to 6.9) by 2150 for the 1.5 °C warming level and a factor of 1.4 (0.9 to 2.4) for the 2.0 °C warming level compared to its first estimate in 2025. The median CO 2 -only carbon budget by 2150, relative to 2020, is 800 GtCO 2 for the 1.5 °C warming level and 2250 GtCO 2 for the 2.0 °C warming level. These median values exceed the median IPCC AR6 estimates by 60 % for the 1.5 °C warming level and 67 % for 2.0 °C. Some of the differences may be explained by the choice of the mitigation scenario for non-CO 2 radiative agents. Our simulations highlight shifts in carbon uptake dynamics under stabilized temperature, such as a cessation of the carbon sinks in the North Atlantic and in tropical forests. On the other hand, the Southern Ocean remains a carbon sink centuries after temperatures stabilize. Overall, this new type of warming-level-based emission-driven simulation offers a more coherent assessment across climate models and opens up a wide range of possibilities for studying both the carbon cycle and climate impacts, such as extreme events, under climate stabilization.

Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AI-Enhanced Computational Tools for Entry Systems Modeling

To advance the understanding of complex atmospheric entry phenomena, NASA’s Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) team [1] has developed high-fidelity computational tools addressing multiscale challenges, from material microstructures to full-scale heatshield response. This abstract highlights a subset of ESM tools, focusing on AI integration to enhance workflows and predictive modeling. - PuMA [2] computes effective material properties from high-resolution micro-CT scans, supporting TPS analysis for NASA missions. - TomoSAM [3] automates 3D tomography dataset segmentation for PuMA using the Segment Anything Model, reducing manual effort and improving accuracy. - PATO [4] models porous reactive materials under extreme conditions, with advancements such as unified solvers, mechanical erosion, and TPS coatings for NASA missions. - arcjetCV [5] employs deep learning to analyze arc jet test footage, measuring recession rates, shape changes, and shock standoff distances, bridging simulations, and experiments to reveal TPS ablation behavior. - ARCHeS [6] simulates arc heater plasma flows, modeling turbulence, radiation, and electromagnetic interactions to optimize arc heater performance, validate TPS under extreme conditions, and serve as a foundation for developing digital twins of arc heater facilities. - SPARTA [7] simulates rarefied hypersonic flows and gas-surface interactions for planetary entry missions, leveraging GPU architectures for scalable and efficient aerothermal and ablation analyses. AI-driven solutions, such as deep learning segmentation, have streamlined workflows in ESM tools and still hold significant potential to further accelerate processes and enhance automation in entry systems modeling. [1] Haskins, J.B. (2023), [2] Ferguson, J.C. (2018), [3] Meurisse, J.B.E. (2018), [4] Semeraro, F. (2023), [5] Quintart, A. (2024) [6] Meurisse, J.B.E. (2022), [7] Plimpton, S.J. (2019)

Predictive Modeling↗
NASA NTRS2022

The Simulation and Subseasonal Forecasting of Hydrological Variables: Insights from a Simple Water Balance Model

Past work has shown that a land surface model’s (LSM’s) implicit (not explicitly coded) relationships between soil moisture and both evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff largely determine the LSM’s hydrological behavior. Here we estimate the relationships that appear to be operating in the real world and compare them to those of the LSM component of a state-of-the-art Earth system model (ESM). The two sets of relationships are determined by calibrating them within a simple water balance model (WBM): once using stream gauge observations from small, unregulated rivers over the eastern half of the U.S., and once using the runoffs generated by the LSM as part of a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis. Hydrological simulations and subseasonal hydrological forecasts performed with the two calibrated versions of the WBM provide two key results. First, the version calibrated to the LSM-generated runoffs does successfully reproduce, to first order, the hydrological behavior of the full LSM within its ESM environment. Second, of the two WBM versions, the one calibrated to the observations reproduces more accurately a broad collection of fully independent streamflow observations as well as a similarly broad collection of in-situ soil moisture measurements. Taken together, the two results suggest that the observations-calibrated ET and runoff efficiency functions do successfully represent, at least to some degree, soil moisture controls over hydrological variability in Nature and can serve as potentially useful targets for further LSM development.

Water Balance Model↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Benefits of Trash-to-Gas Versus Jettison of Waste Via Trash-Lock for Mars Transit

Human exploration missions to Mars pose difficulties due to the significant waste that will be generated during transit, which will need to be carried along or disposed of in some fashion. Waste removal from the spacecraft decreases the spacecraft’s mass as well as the associated logistic items necessary for storing the waste. A mission propellant analysis was performed to highlight the mass benefits that may be accessed via waste removal. The propellant mass savings were determined for different waste removal rates (2.9 – 11.6 kg/day) with the highest removal rate leading to the greatest propellant savings of 7,785 kg for an 850-day round-trip mission. Due to these benefits, two methods for waste reduction were studied for the 850-day Mars mission: Trash-to-Gas (TtG) and physical jettison via a trash-lock. The trash-to-gas methods considered were combustion, steam reforming, and pyrolysis, which convert waste into ventable gases (e.g., CO2, CO, CH4, etc.). Combustion and steam reforming require a co-reactant (O2 and/or H2O). Therefore, additional processing units or integration with the spacecraft’s environmental control and life support system (ECLSS) are required to facilitate recycle of the pertinent species. In contrast, pyrolysis is a purely thermal degradation process, which can operate as a standalone system; however, a lower percentage of waste is gasified with pyrolysis. The study herein compares standalone TtG (e.g., Advanced Organic Waste Gasifier, Plasma Pyrolysis, etc.), integrated TtG-ECLSS (e.g., Orbital Syngas Commodity Augmentation Reactor, Incineration/Gasification, etc.), and physical jettison. Each system’s mass, volume, power, and cooling requirements were compared via an equivalent system mass (ESM) analysis to ascertain potentially promising technologies that can achieve efficient waste removal while minimizing their own spacecraft load. This study highlights the advantages and disadvantages of the different waste management technologies and provides recommendations on the promising technologies based on the ESM metric and propellant mass savings.

Jettison↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying soil organic matter stock distribution and origin following over a century of maize-based cropping in the former tallgrass prairie region of central USA

Tallgrass prairie conversion to maize-based agriculture in central North America has resulted in substantial loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) in less than two centuries. However, evaluations of how management practices may mitigate SOC losses are generally limited in soil depth and/or duration, missing long-term SOC stock outcomes that manifest over timescales of decades or longer. To address this, we sampled soils in year 145 of the Morrow Plots experiment to (i) evaluate effects of crop rotation and fertility management on SOC stocks and (ii) distinguish prairie- versus maize-derived SOC after continuous maize cropping since 1876 using stable carbon isotope ( 13 C) natural abundance. Soil organic carbon stock by equivalent soil mass (ESM) was + 30.7 Mg C ha −1 (+31.7 %) higher under maize-oat-alfalfa than continuous maize, but similar between maize-soybean and continuous maize. NPK fertilization and manuring did not influence SOC stocks by ESM. Response of SOC stocks at 15 cm depth intervals to NPK fertilization varied by depth and crop rotation, with lower SOC stocks at 30–45 cm under continuous maize and maize-soybean. Maize-derived C ranged 19.5–59.6 % of SOC stock across depths, indicating the majority of SOC was still derived from tallgrass prairie even after 145 years of continuous maize cropping. Our results confirm the potential of diversified crop rotation for minimizing SOC losses relative to tallgrass prairie at the supracentennial scale, and highlight the importance of relic prairie soil organic matter for future crop production in central North America.

crop rotation↗