Rapid Response to IT emergencies (IT Emergencies Done Right).
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Formation of a butterfly from a pupa, extraction of a live dove from a magician’s empty hat, generation of new particles from high-energy particle collisions and spawning a new dream world from mind in sleep are all examples of a common, fuzzy notion called ‘emergence’. Emergence is intuitively defined in a subjective manner in various contexts, yet it eludes a universally acceptable objective definition. In this paper1 I pin the concept of emergence to the element of surprise in a phenomenon. I then propose a characterisation of emergence by first defining surprise in terms of an objective dimension called reversibility. Using this definition, I categorise the various notions of emergence into three main classes: (1) weak emergence in which the evolution from pre-emergence to post-emergence states is fully reversible and hence evokes the least amount of surprise, (2) quasi emergence in which the evolution from pre-emergence to post-emergence states holds surprise in the form of gaps in reversibility, but the gaps can be overcome via placeholders such as deterministic pseudo-randomness, and (3) strong emergence in which it is impossible to find any reversible description of evolution from pre-emergence states to post-emergence states, thereby making the element of surprise fundamental and impossible to redress. In fact, in the strong emergence case, the pre- and post-emergence states continue to co-exist despite an apparent transformation of the pre-emergence state to post-emergence state. These definitions are used to explain instances of emergence, organised along a continuous spectrum as normality, magic, miracle and error.
Background: Currently, the identification of infectious disease re-emergence is performed without describing specific quantitative criteria that can be used to identify re-emergence events consistently. This practice may lead to ineffective mitigation. In addition, identification of factors contributing to local disease re-emergence and assessment of global disease re-emergence require access to data about disease incidence and a large number of factors at the local level for the entire world. This paper presents Re-emerging Disease Alert (RED Alert), a web-based tool designed to help public health officials detect and understand infectious disease re-emergence. Objective: Our objective is to bring together a variety of disease-related data and analytics needed to help public health analysts answer the following 3 primary questions for detecting and understanding disease re-emergence: Is there a potential disease re-emergence at the local (country) level? What are the potential contributing factors for this re-emergence? Is there a potential for global re-emergence? Methods: We collected and cleaned disease-related data (eg, case counts, vaccination rates, and indicators related to disease transmission) from several data sources including the World Health Organization (WHO), Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), World Bank, and Gideon. We combined these data with machine learning and visual analytics into a tool called RED Alert to detect re-emergence for the following 4 diseases: measles, cholera, dengue, and yellow fever. We evaluated the performance of the machine learning models for re-emergence detection and reviewed the output of the tool through a number of case studies. Results: Our supervised learning models were able to identify 82%-90% of the local re-emergence events, although with 18%-31% (except 46% for dengue) false positives. This is consistent with our goal of identifying all possible re-emergences while allowing some false positives. The review of the web-based tool through case studies showed that local re-emergence detection was possible and that the tool provided actionable information about potential factors contributing to the local disease re-emergence and trends in global disease re-emergence. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first tool that focuses specifically on disease re-emergence and addresses the important challenges mentioned above.
In 2014, the Inter-agency Operations Advisory Group (IOAG) chartered a multi-agency team effort to study how to best handle spacecraft emergency as part of cross support among network assets. The original intent is to put in place for the first time a process and guidelines to make emergency support as part of a permanent cross-support capability between space agencies. From the perspective of space communications service providers, a few key issues, common to all agencies, concerning the Spacecraft Emergency Cross Support (SECS) have been explored. They are: context of emergency support, provision of emergency support under a cross-support agreement, provision of emergency support with no cross-support agreement, legal and liability issues, response time, support priority, services provided, sustaining emergency support capabilities, and charge for the support. The positions of the various participating agencies with respect to these issues have been collected, analyzed, and finally harmonized to form the recommended IOAG positions. A central challenge most communications service providers are facing is that since the spacecraft emergency is an unplanned critical event, it typically requires fast response to the emergency call, hence lacking an international standard process for the operational interfaces seems to exacerbate the difficulty in providing SECS. For reducing the response time, i.e. from the time of accepting a request for SECS to the readiness for support, it is recommended that a “cross-support emergency system” be established by IOAG member agencies. Along with it, the IOAG core services, just-in-time ground communications line, cross support service management (CSSM), and standard operations procedures (SOP) for operational interfaces form the basic foundation of the “cross support emergency system”. Of the above, new to the cross support conducted thus far in the IOAG community is the concept of the SOP specifically for the interfaces between the service provider and service user during the SECS. Use cases, salient features, and definition of the key operational activities/tasks relevant to the interfaces are addressed by the effort. Underpinning such a system is the availability of the RF license granted by the local authority, at national and/or regional level, for a given ground station to communicate with and track the spacecraft in emergency mode at the uplink and downlink frequencies assigned to that spacecraft. That means it is critical for the IOAG member agencies to obtain a priori all-band licenses (for the entire X-band or S-band) for some, if not all, of their ground stations that are most capable of or likely to provide SECS. It is also recommended that certain prior arrangements be made with the relevant local licensing authorities for a process that will allow expedited authorization to transmit/receive signals to/from the declared spacecraft over the declared ground stations specifically and solely for the emergency case. Our analysis of the SECS has also uncovered a few fundamental programmatic issues. Recognizing any IOAG positions reached on these issues do not necessarily lead to any binding authority, it is recommended that they, along with those key attributes of the cross support emergency system, be explicitly stated as multi-agency guidelines to guide the implementation and provision of the SECS. The paper will present the results of the working group on Spacecraft Emergency Cross Support and, in particular, its findings, products and recommendations. It will also identify the next steps of this work that may include the production of some international standards as an extension of this work, or the process to make this emergency system usable by other spacecraft operators beyond the space agencies.
In 2014, the Inter-agency Operations Advisory Group (IOAG) chartered a multi-agency team effort to study how to best handle spacecraft emergency as part of cross support among network assets. The original intent is to put in place for the first time a process and guidelines to make emergency support as part of a permanent cross-support capability between space agencies. From the perspective of space communications service providers, a few key issues, common to all agencies, concerning the Spacecraft Emergency Cross Support (SECS) have been explored. They are: context of emergency support, provision of emergency support under a cross-support agreement, provision of emergency support with no cross-support agreement, legal and liability issues, response time, support priority, services provided, sustaining emergency support capabilities, and charge for the support. The positions of the various participating agencies with respect to these issues have been collected, analyzed, and finally harmonized to form the recommended IOAG positions. A central challenge most communications service providers are facing is that since the spacecraft emergency is an unplanned critical event, it typically requires fast response to the emergency call, hence lacking an international standard process for the operational interfaces seems to exacerbate the difficulty in providing SECS. For reducing the response time, i.e. from the time of accepting a request for SECS to the readiness for support, it is recommended that a “cross-support emergency system” be established by IOAG member agencies. Along with it, the IOAG core services, just-in-time ground communications line, cross support service management (CSSM), and standard operations procedures (SOP) for operational interfaces form the basic foundation of the “cross support emergency system”. Of the above, new to the cross support conducted thus far in the IOAG community is the concept of the SOP specifically for the interfaces between the service provider and service user during the SECS. Use cases, salient features, and definition of the key operational activities/tasks relevant to the interfaces are addressed by the effort. Underpinning such a system is the availability of the RF license granted by the local authority, at national and/or regional level, for a given ground station to communicate with and track the spacecraft in emergency mode at the uplink and downlink frequencies assigned to that spacecraft. That means it is critical for the IOAG member agencies to obtain a priori all-band licenses (for the entire X-band or S-band) for some, if not all, of their ground stations that are most capable of or likely to provide SECS. It is also recommended that certain prior arrangements be made with the relevant local licensing authorities for a process that will allow expedited authorization to transmit/receive signals to/from the declared spacecraft over the declared ground stations specifically and solely for the emergency case. Our analysis of the SECS has also uncovered a few fundamental programmatic issues. Recognizing any IOAG positions reached on these issues do not necessarily lead to any binding authority, it is recommended that they, along with those key attributes of the cross support emergency system, be explicitly stated as multi-agency guidelines to guide the implementation and provision of the SECS. The paper will present the results of the working group on Spacecraft Emergency Cross Support and, in particular, its findings, products and recommendations. It will also identify the next steps of this work that may include the production of some international standards as an extension of this work, or the process to make this emergency system usable by other spacecraft operators beyond the space agencies.
The problem was that the NASA Fire and Emergency Services did not know if the current emergency notification systems on the NASA White Sands Test Facility were appropriate for alerting the employees of an emergency. The purpose of this Applied Research Project was to determine if the current emergency notification systems of the White Sands Test Facility are appropriate for alerting the employees of an emergency. This was a descriptive research project. The research questions were: 1) What are similar facilities using to alert the employees of an emergency?; 2) Are the current emergency notification systems suitable for the community hazards on the NASA White Sands Test Facility?; 3) What is the NASA Fire and Emergency Services currently using to measure the effectiveness of the emergency notification systems?; and 4) What are the current training methods used to train personnel to the emergency notification systems at the NASA White Sands Test Facility? The procedures involved were to research other established facilities, research published material from credible sources, survey the facility to determine the facility perception of the emergency notification systems, and evaluate the operating elements of the established emergency notification systems for the facility. The results were that the current systems are suitable for the type of hazards the facility may endure. The emergency notification systems are tested frequently to ensure effectiveness in the event of an emergency. Personnel are trained and participate in a yearly drill to make certain personnel are educated on the established systems. The recommendations based on the results were to operationally improve the existing systems by developing and implementing one system that can overall notify the facility of a hazard. Existing procedures and training should also be improved to ensure that all personnel are educated on what to do when the emergency notification systems are activated.
Abstract Many salmonid‐bearing rivers exhibit thermal and hydrologic heterogeneity at multiple spatial and temporal scales, but how this translates into spatiotemporal patterns of fry emergence is poorly understood. Understanding this variability is important because emergence timing determines the biophysical conditions fish first experience (e.g., temperature, flow, and food supply), thereby influencing growth opportunities and survival during this critical life stage. We predicted spring Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) emergence phenology across four northeastern Oregon subbasins over 5–9 years using empirical spawning and temperature data. We then related interannual emergence timing estimates to juvenile salmon size and growth rates at consistent sampling locations. There were clear longitudinal patterns of predicted emergence timing in each subbasin: The shape of these patterns was consistent among years, but not among subbasins. In two subbasins, emergence occurred progressively later with distance upstream, whereas in the other two subbasins emergence was earliest at upstream sites. Within each year, median emergence dates among sites within each subbasin ranged between 44 and 58 days. This spatial variation was comparable to interannual variation, with median emergence dates for a given location in each subbasin ranging between 47 and 74 days among years. Contrary to our expectations, juvenile salmon were not larger in years with earlier emergence, owing to slower estimated spring and summer growth rates compared to years with later emergence. Despite large interannual variation in estimated emergence dates, these results suggest that other factors (e.g., stream flow, temperature, and density‐dependence) were more important than growth duration in determining juvenile salmon growth rates and size among years. We demonstrated considerable spatial and interannual variation in emergence phenology within these subbasins. Understanding how this variation translates to spatiotemporal patterns of juvenile salmon habitat use, growth, and survival has important implications for guiding restoration efforts and understanding how climate change may impact these populations.
Micro-reactor designs incorporate design features that provide very low reactor decay heat power at 24 hours after shutdown that is manageable in comparison with larger reactors. This attribute translates into a low probability of core damage negligible offsite dose. This paper provides the conceptual framework for appropriately structuring emergency planning requirements for micro-reactors while ensuring the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) commitment to safety is met. Due to the diversity in reactor designs comprising the micro-reactor community, this paper identifies the necessary concepts that should be considered to ensure emergency plans for micro-reactors are appropriate for the risk. This paper does not mandate specific design features for micro-reactors but provides reactor designers a conceptual framework for a scalable, graded approach to Emergency Planning Standards that should be considered in their individual designs in order to support simplified emergency plans. Given that accident source terms associated with micro-reactors are essentially negligible when compared with those for large light water reactors, revisions to emergency planning standards are justified. A graded approach to implementing emergency planning guidance can be used to appropriately structure micro-reactor emergency plans and reduce the size of the emergency planning zone and plume exposure pathway. Appropriately structuring emergency planning requirements will better optimize licensee and offsite agencies emergency planning resources and reduce the resources associated with emergency planning.
The term 'emerging contaminants' and its multiple variants has come to refer to previously overlooked compounds discovered in the environment which represent a potential threat to human and ecological receptors. These compounds may be discovered in the environment as new analytical techniques are developed and/or as new monitoring programs for drinking water and groundwater are implemented, while the threat to receptors may be realized through advances in understanding of toxicology and pathways to receptors. Emerging contaminants present unique and considerable challenges as demands to address them can outpace the understanding of their toxicity, their need for regulation, their occurrence, and techniques for treating the environmental media they affect. With these challenges in mind, this paper serves as a primer for understanding emerging contaminants. The paper will lay a foundation for understanding emerging contaminants through three key topics: 1. Who identifies emerging contaminants? An overview of the various stakeholder groups around the world working on identifying potential emerging contaminants and developing systems for screening potential candidates, prioritizing, and ultimately generating regulations will be provided. 2. How Chemicals Rise into Awareness as Emerging Contaminants. The process by which contaminants emerge through a cycle of awareness, characterization, management and regulation will be discussed. Current emerging contaminants will be discussed in the context of the life cycle: emerging contaminants where impacts to drinking water supplies are driving public awareness (e.g. per and polyfuoroalkyl substances (PFASs) and 1,4-dioxane), emerging contaminants impacted by changing regulatory standards or development and debate on toxicity (e.g., hexavalent chromium, 1,2,3-trichloropropane, trichloroethylene in vapor intrusion), and those with evolving understanding of impacts and usage (e.g., microplastics). 3. Key Challenges. Unique challenges associated with emerging contaminants, including visibility and public sensitivity, uncertainty and vulnerability, will be discussed. (authors)
In a negative-polarity coronal hole, magnetic flux emergence, seen by the Solar Dynamics Observatory's {SDO) Helioseismic Magnetic lmager (HMI), begins at approximately 19:00 UT on March 3, 2016. The emerged magnetic field produced sunspots, which NOAA numbered 12514 two days later. The emerging magnetic field is largely bipolar with the opposite-polarity fluxes spreading apart overall, but there is simultaneously some convergence and cancellation of opposite-polarity flux at the polarity inversion line (PIL) inside the emerging bipole. In the first fifteen hours after emergence onset, three obvious eruptions occur, observed in the coronal EUV images from SDO's Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). The first two erupt from separate segments of the external PIL between the emerging positve-polarity flux and the extant surrounding negative-polarity flux, with the exploding magnetic field being prepared and triggered by flux cancellation at the external PIL. The emerging bipole shows obvious overall left-handed shear and/or twist in its magnetic field. The focus of th is poster is the third and largest eruption, which comes from inside the emerging bipole and blows it open to produce a CME observed by SOHO/LASCO. That eruption is preceded by flux cancellation at the emerging bipole's interior PIL, cancellation that plausibly builds a sheared and twisted flux rope above the interior PIL and finally triggers the blow-out eruption of the flux rope via photospheric-convection•driven slow tether-cutting reconnection of the legs of the sheared core field, low above the interior PIL, as proposed by van Ballegooijen & Martens (1989) and Moore & Roumeliotis (1992). The production of this eruption is a (perhaps rare) counterexample to solar eruptions that result from external collisional shearing between opposite polarities from two distinct emerging and/or emerged bipoles (Chintzoglou et al. 2019).
First of all, we reconsider the tight-binding model of monolayer graphene, in which the variations of the hopping parameters are allowed. We demonstrate that the emergent 2D Weitzenbock geometry as well as the emergent U(1) gauge field appear. The emergent gauge field is equal to the linear combination of the components of the zweibein. Therefore, we actually deal with the gauge fixed version of the emergent 2+1 D teleparallel gravity. In particular, we work out the case, when the variations of the hopping parameters are due to the elastic deformations, and relate the elastic deformations with the emergent zweibein. Next, we investigate the tight-binding model with the varying intralayer hopping parameters for the multilayer graphene with the ABC stacking. In this case the emergent 2D Weitzenbock geometry and the emergent U(1) gauge field appear as well, and the emergent low energy effective field theory has the anisotropic scaling. -- Highlights: •The tight-binding model for graphene with varying hopping parameters is considered. •The emergent gravity and emergent gauge fields are derived. •For the case of the multilayer graphene we obtain the analogue of Horava gravity with anisotropic scaling.
Abstract Motivation The rapid improvement of phenotyping capability, accuracy and throughput have greatly increased the volume and diversity of phenomics data. A remaining challenge is an efficient way to identify phenotypic patterns to improve our understanding of the quantitative variation of complex phenotypes, and to attribute gene functions. To address this challenge, we developed a new algorithm to identify emerging phenomena from large-scale temporal plant phenotyping experiments. An emerging phenomenon is defined as a group of genotypes who exhibit a coherent phenotype pattern during a relatively short time. Emerging phenomena are highly transient and diverse, and are dependent in complex ways on both environmental conditions and development. Identifying emerging phenomena may help biologists to examine potential relationships among phenotypes and genotypes in a genetically diverse population and to associate such relationships with the change of environments or development. Results We present an emerging phenomenon identification tool called Temporal Emerging Phenomenon Finder (TEP-Finder). Using large-scale longitudinal phenomics data as input, TEP-Finder first encodes the complicated phenotypic patterns into a dynamic phenotype network. Then, emerging phenomena in different temporal scales are identified from dynamic phenotype network using a maximal clique based approach. Meanwhile, a directed acyclic network of emerging phenomena is composed to model the relationships among the emerging phenomena. The experiment that compares TEP-Finder with two state-of-art algorithms shows that the emerging phenomena identified by TEP-Finder are more functionally specific, robust and biologically significant. Availability and implementation The source code, manual and sample data of TEP-Finder are all available at: http://phenomics.uky.edu/TEP-Finder/. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
Purpose: Understanding the corresponding dose to different staff during the High Dose Rate (HDR) Brachytherapy emergency response procedure could help to develop a strategy in efficiency and effective action. In this study, the variation and risk analysis methodology was developed to simulation the HDR emergency response procedure based on severity indicator. Methods: A GammaMedplus iX HDR unit from Varian Medical System was used for this simulation. The emergency response procedure was decomposed based on risk management methods. Severity indexes were used to identify the impact of a risk occurrence on the step including dose to patient and dose to operation staff by varying the time, HDR source activity, distance from the source to patient and staff and the actions. These actions in 7 steps were to press the interrupt button, press emergency shutoff switch, press emergency button on the afterloader keypad, turn emergency hand-crank, remove applicator from the patient, disconnect transfer tube and move afterloader from the patient, and execute emergency surgical recovery. Results: Given the accumulated time in second at the assumed 7 steps were 15, 5, 30, 15, 180, 120, 1800, and the dose rate of HDR source is 10 Ci, the accumulated dose in cGy to patient at 1cm distance were 188, 250, 625, 813, 3063, 4563 and 27063, and the accumulated exposure in rem to operator at outside the vault, 1m and 10cm distance were 0.0, 0.0, 0.1, 0.1, 22.6, 37.6 and 262.6. The variation was determined by the operators in action at different time and distance from the HDR source. Conclusion: The time and dose were estimated for a HDR unit emergency response procedure. It provided information in making optimal decision during the emergency procedure. Further investigation would be to optimize and standardize the responses for other emergency procedure by time-spatial-dose severity function.
The Security and Emergency Management (S&EM) Center at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is responsible for ensuring overall security for people, information, and facilities at SNL. The center runs a broad Security and Emergency Management Program in close cooperation with other organizations throughout SNL. The mission of the Security program is to minimize current and future security threats so that Sandia can protect, sustain and enhance SNL’s ability to function as a multidisciplinary national security laboratory. The mission of the Emergency Management program is to provide SNL with dedicated professionals who deliver safe, prompt, courteous, efficient emergency planning and response to fire-related incidents, hazardous materials, confined space, emergency medical emergencies, and non-emergency events to protect the workers, the public and the environment. They embrace mission success in the National Interest, actively supporting all Divisions. The Emergency Management (EM) Program’s vision is to be recognized by SNL/NM and the entire DOE complex as the model for superior emergency management services. Emergency Management plans to accomplish this vision through a leadership philosophy that promotes respect and mutual trust among all members through open and honest communication.
Experimental studies were conducted with pilots to investigate the attributes of automation that would be appropriate for aiding pilots in emergencies. The specific focus of this year was on methods of mitigating automation brittleness. Brittleness occurs when the automatic system is used in circumstances it was not designed for, causing it to choose an incorrect action or make an inaccurate decision for the situation. Brittleness is impossible to avoid since it is impossible to predict every potential situation the automatic system will be exposed to over its life. However, operators are always ultimately responsible for the actions and decisions of the automation they are monitoring or using, which means they must evaluate the automation's decisions and actions for accuracy. As has been pointed out, this is a difficult thing for human operators to do. There have been various suggestions as to how to aid operators with this evaluation. In the study described in this report we studied how presentation of contextual information about an automatic system's decision might impact the ability of the human operators to evaluate that decision. This study focused on the planning of emergency descents. Fortunately, emergencies (e.g., mechanical or electrical malfunction, on-board fire, and medical emergency) happen quite rarely. However, they can be catastrophic when they do. For all predictable or conceivable emergencies, pilots have emergency procedures that they are trained on, but those procedures often end with 'determine suitable airport and land as quickly as possible.' Planning an emergency descent to an unplanned airport is a difficult task, particularly under the time pressures of an emergency. Automatic decision aids could be very efficient at the task of determining an appropriate airport and calculating an optimal trajectory to that airport. This information could be conveyed to the pilot through an emergency descent procedure listing all of the actions necessary to safely land the plane. However, there is still the potential problem of brittleness. This study examined the impact of contextual information in presentations of emergency descent procedures to see if they might impact the pilot's evaluation of the feasibility of the presented procedure. The study and its results are described in detail.
Street intersections that are equipped with traffic lights would also be equipped with means for generating audible announcements of approaching emergency vehicles, according to a proposal. The means to generate the announcements would be implemented in the intersection- based subsystems of emergency traffic-light-preemption systems like those described in the two immediately preceding articles and in "Systems Would Preempt Traffic Lights for Emergency Vehicles" (NPO-30573), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 28, No. 10 (October 2004), page 36. Preempting traffic lights is not, by itself, sufficient to warn pedestrians at affected intersections that emergency vehicles are approaching. Automated visual displays that warn of approaching emergency vehicles can be helpful as a supplement to preemption of traffic lights, but experience teaches that for a variety of reasons, pedestrians often do not see such displays. Moreover, in noisy and crowded urban settings, the lights and sirens on emergency vehicles are often not noticed until a few seconds before the vehicles arrive. According to the proposal, the traffic-light preemption subsystem at each intersection would generate an audible announcement for example, emergency vehicle approaching, please clear intersection whenever a preemption was triggered. The subsystem would estimate the time of arrival of an approaching emergency vehicle by use of vehicle identity, position, and time data from one or more sources that could include units connected to traffic loops and/or transponders connected to diagnostic and navigation systems in participating emergency vehicles. The intersection-based subsystem would then start the announcement far enough in advance to enable pedestrians to leave the roadway before any emergency vehicles arrive.