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At least 127 records · Page 7

AI-Assisted Conceptual Development of a Pre-Geometric Cosmological Model - An Exercise in AI-Assisted Conceptual Framework Generation, Paper II: Local Geometry and Metric Structure

This paper develops the geometric sector of the replication-driven cosmogenesis framework introduced in Paper I. Starting from a pre-geometric spectral substrate and a minimal set of replication axioms, we show how coherent self-replicating units generate a spatial adjacency graph whose continuum limit acquires an effective Riemannian structure. The replication dynamics determines a characteristic correlation length that seeds the local metric, while overlap relations among coherent units produce an isotropic neighborhood geometry with an emergent dimensionality $d_{\rm eff}\simeq 3$ across a broad range of replication factors. As replication slows and causal order stabilizes, a limiting signal speed $c_\ast$ appears, providing the basis for the Lorentzian structure of spacetime without assuming a pre-existing light cone. We derive conditions under which the adjacency graph converges to a smooth three-dimensional manifold, describe the transition from Euclidean to Lorentzian propagation, and identify geometric invariants controlled by the replication parameters. This work establishes the geometric and causal layer of the replication cosmogenesis program, bridging the spectral axioms of Paper I to the cosmological dynamics explored in Paper III.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Linking Space-Borne and Ground-Based Observations Observed Around Substorm Onset to Magnetospheric Processes

The combined THEMIS five spacecraft in-situ and ground magnetic and camera arrays have advanced considerably our understanding of the causal relationship between midtail plasma flows, transient ionospheric features, and ground magnetic signatures. In particular, recent work has shown a connection between equatorward moving visible ionospheric transients and substorm onset, in both 6300 nm and white-light emissions. Although both observations detail pre-onset auroral features the interpretations differ substantially. We first provide a brief summary of these observations, highlighting in particular areas where the two observations differ, and suggest reasons for the differences. We then detail how these observations relate to dynamical magnetospheric processes, and show how they constrain models of transient convection. Next, we pull together observations and models of Pi2 generation, substorm current wedge (SCW) initiation and dipolarization to present a self-consistent description of the dynamical processes and communicative pathways that occur just prior to and during substorm expansion onset. Finally, we present a summary of open questions and suggest a roadmap for future work.

Kepko, Larry↗

A new effective theory for stochastic relativistic hydrodynamics

Thermal fluctuations are a fundamental feature of dissipative systems that are essential for understanding physics near the expected critical point of QCD and in small systems. When such fluctuations are modeled naively in relativistic systems, strange features can appear such as negative self-correlation functions. We construct an effective theory for nonlinear stochastic relativistic hydrodynamics that ensure a well-posed mathematical formulation. Using Crooks fluctuation theorem, we derive a symmetry of the effective action that incorporates fluctuations through a suitable free energy functional. For divergence type theories, the action can then be fully specified using a single vector generating current. The equations of motion obtained using this procedure are guaranteed to be flux conservative and symmetric hyperbolic when the dynamics is causal. This ensures that these equations are well-posed (for suitable initial data) and are in a form that can easily be simulated, including with Metropolis techniques.

Mullins, Nicki [University of Illinois at Urbana-C↗

The Invigoration of Deep Convective Clouds Over the Atlantic: Aerosol Effect, Meteorology or Retrieval Artifact?

Associations between cloud properties and aerosol loading are frequently observed in products derived from satellite measurements. These observed trends between clouds and aerosol optical depth suggest aerosol modification of cloud dynamics, yet there are uncertainties involved in satellite retrievals that have the potential to lead to incorrect conclusions. Two of the most challenging problems are addressed here: the potential for retrieved aerosol optical depth to be cloud-contaminated, and as a result, artificially correlated with cloud parameters; and the potential for correlations between aerosol and cloud parameters to be erroneously considered to be causal. Here these issues are tackled directly by studying the effects of the aerosol on convective clouds in the tropical Atlantic Ocean using satellite remote sensing, a chemical transport model, and a reanalysis of meteorological fields. Results show that there is a robust positive correlation between cloud fraction or cloud top height and the aerosol optical depth, regardless of whether a stringent filtering of aerosol measurements in the vicinity of clouds is applied, or not. These same positive correlations emerge when replacing the observed aerosol field with that derived from a chemical transport model. Model-reanalysis data is used to address the causality question by providing meteorological context for the satellite observations. A correlation exercise between the full suite of meteorological fields derived from model reanalysis and satellite-derived cloud fields shows that observed cloud top height and cloud fraction correlate best with model pressure updraft velocity and relative humidity. Observed aerosol optical depth does correlate with meteorological parameters but usually different parameters from those that correlate with observed cloud fields. The result is a near-orthogonal influence of aerosol and meteorological fields on cloud top height and cloud fraction. The results strengthen the case that the aerosol does play a role in invigorating convective clouds.

Koren, Ilan↗

Beyond a series of security nets: Applying STAMP & STPA to port security

Port security is an increasing concern considering the significant role of ports in global commerce and today’s increasingly complex threat environment. Current approaches to port security mirror traditional models of accident causality -- ‘a series of security nets’ based on component reliability and probabilistic assumptions. Traditional port security frameworks result in isolated and inconsistent improvement strategies. Recent work in engineered safety combines the ideas of hierarchy, emergence, control and communication into a new paradigm for understanding port security as an emergent complex system property. The ‘System-Theoretic Accident Model and Process (STAMP)’ is a new model of causality based on systems and control theory. The associated analysis process -- System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) -- identifies specific technical or procedural security requirements designed to work in coordination with (and be traceable to) overall port objectives. This process yields port security design specifications that can mitigate (if not eliminate) port security vulnerabilities related to an emphasis on component reliability, lack of coordination between port security stakeholders or economic pressures endemic in the maritime industry. As a result, this article aims to demonstrate how STAMP’s broader view of causality and complexity can better address the dynamic and interactive behaviors of social, organizational and technical components of port security.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Spacetime dynamics of a Higgs vacuum instability during inflation

A remarkable prediction of the Standard Model is that, in the absence of corrections lifting the energy density, the Higgs potential becomes negative at large field values. If the Higgs field samples this part of the potential during inflation, the negative energy density may locally destabilize the spacetime. Here, we use numerical simulations of the Einstein equations to study the evolution of inflation-induced Higgs fluctuations as they grow towards the true (negative-energy) minimum. Our simulations show that forming a single patch of true vacuum in our past light cone during inflation is incompatible with the existence of our Universe; the boundary of the true vacuum region grows outward in a causally disconnected manner from the crunching interior, which forms a black hole. We also find that these black hole horizons may be arbitrarily elongated—even forming black strings—in violation of the hoop conjecture. Furthermore, by extending the numerical solution of the Fokker-Planck equation to the exponentially suppressed tails of the field distribution at large field values, we derive a rigorous correlation between a future measurement of the tensor-to-scalar ratio and the scale at which the Higgs potential must receive stabilizing corrections in order for the Universe to have survived inflation until today.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A diagnosis system using object-oriented fault tree models

Spaceborne computing systems must provide reliable, continuous operation for extended periods. Due to weight, power, and volume constraints, these systems must manage resources very effectively. A fault diagnosis algorithm is described which enables fast and flexible diagnoses in the dynamic distributed computing environments planned for future space missions. The algorithm uses a knowledge base that is easily changed and updated to reflect current system status. Augmented fault trees represented in an object-oriented form provide deep system knowledge that is easy to access and revise as a system changes. Given such a fault tree, a set of failure events that have occurred, and a set of failure events that have not occurred, this diagnosis system uses forward and backward chaining to propagate causal and temporal information about other failure events in the system being diagnosed. Once the system has established temporal and causal constraints, it reasons backward from heuristically selected failure events to find a set of basic failure events which are a likely cause of the occurrence of the top failure event in the fault tree. The diagnosis system has been implemented in common LISP using Flavors.

Iverson, David L.↗

North American Megadroughts in the Common Era: Reconstructions and Simulations

During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Western North America experienced episodes of intense aridity that persisted for multiple decades or longer. These megadroughts are well documented in many proxy records, but the causal mechanisms are poorly understood. General circulation models (GCMs) simulate megadroughts, but do not reproduce the temporal clustering of events during the MCA, suggesting they are not caused by the time history of volcanic or solar forcing. Instead, GCMs generate megadroughts through (1) internal atmospheric variability, (2) sea-surface temperatures, and (3) land surface and dust aerosol feedbacks. While no hypothesis has been definitively rejected, and no GCM has accurately reproduced all features (e.g., timing, duration, and extent) of any specific megadrought, their persistence suggests a role for processes that impart memory to the climate system (land surface and ocean dynamics). Over the 21st century, GCMs project an increase in the risk of megadrought occurrence through greenhouse gas forced reductions in precipitation and increases in evaporative demand. This drying is robust across models and multiple drought indicators, but major uncertainties still need to be resolved. These include the potential moderation of vegetation evaporative losses at higher atmospheric [CO2], variations in land surface model complexity, and decadal to multidecadal modes of natural climate variability that could delay or advance onset of aridification over the the next several decades. Because future droughts will arise from both natural variability and greenhouse gas forced trends in hydroclimate, improving our understanding of the natural drivers of persistent multidecadal megadroughts should be a major research priority.

atmospheric temperature↗

Modeling Inflation Using a Non-Equilibrium Equation of Exchange

Inflation is a change in the prices of goods that takes place without changes in the actual values of those goods. The Equation of Exchange, formulated clearly in a seminal paper by Irving Fisher in 1911, establishes an equilibrium relationship between the price index P (also known as "inflation"), the economy's aggregate output Q (also known as "the real gross domestic product"), the amount of money available for spending M (also known as "the money supply"), and the rate at which money is reused V (also known as "the velocity of circulation of money"). This paper offers first a qualitative discussion of what can cause these factors to change and how those causes might be controlled, then develops a quantitative model of inflation based on a non-equilibrium version of the Equation of Exchange. Causal relationships are different from equations in that the effects of changes in the causal variables take time to play out-often significant amounts of time. In the model described here, wages track prices, but only after a distributed lag. Prices change whenever the money supply, aggregate output, or the velocity of circulation of money change, but only after a distributed lag. Similarly, the money supply depends on the supplies of domestic and foreign money, which depend on the monetary base and a variety of foreign transactions, respectively. The spreading of delays mitigates the shocks of sudden changes to important inputs, but the most important aspect of this model is that delays, which often have dramatic consequences in dynamic systems, are explicitly incorporated.macroeconomics, inflation, equation of exchange, non-equilibrium, Athena Project

Chamberlain, Robert G.↗

Avalanching strain dynamics during the hydriding phase transformation in individual palladium nanoparticles

Phase transitions in reactive environments are crucially important in energy and information storage, catalysis and sensors. Nanostructuring active particles can yield faster charging/ discharging kinetics, increased lifespan and record catalytic activities. However, establishing the causal link between structure and function is challenging for nanoparticles, as ensemble measurements convolve intrinsic single-particle properties with sample diversity. Here we study the hydriding phase transformation in individual palladium nanocubes in situ using coherent X-ray diffractive imaging. The phase transformation dynamics, which involve the nucleation and propagation of a hydrogen-rich region, are dependent on absolute time (aging) and involve intermittent dynamics (avalanching). A hydrogen-rich surface layer dominates the crystal strain in the hydrogen-poor phase, while strain inversion occurs at the cube corners in the hydrogen-rich phase. A three-dimensional phase-field model is used to interpret the experimental results. In conclusion, our experimental and theoretical approach provides a general framework for designing and optimizing phase transformations for single nanocrystals in reactive environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Quantum learning of classical stochastic processes: The completely positive realization problem

Among several tasks in Machine Learning, a specially important one is the problem of inferring the latent variables of a system and their causal relations with the observed behavior. A paradigmatic instance of this is the task of inferring the hidden Markov model underlying a given stochastic process. This is known as the positive realization problem (PRP), [L. Benvenuti and L. Farina, IEEE Trans. Autom. Control 49(5), 651–664 (2004)] and constitutes a central problem in machine learning. The PRP and its solutions have far-reaching consequences in many areas of systems and control theory, and is nowadays an important piece in the broad field of positive systems theory. We consider the scenario where the latent variables are quantum (i.e., quantum states of a finite-dimensional system) and the system dynamics is constrained only by physical transformations on the quantum system. The observable dynamics is then described by a quantum instrument, and the task is to determine which quantum instrument — if any — yields the process at hand by iterative application. We take as a starting point the theory of quasi-realizations, whence a description of the dynamics of the process is given in terms of linear maps on state vectors and probabilities are given by linear functionals on the state vectors. This description, despite its remarkable resemblance with the hidden Markov model, or the iterated quantum instrument, is however devoid of any stochastic or quantum mechanical interpretation, as said maps fail to satisfy any positivity conditions. The completely positive realization problem then consists in determining whether an equivalent quantum mechanical description of the same process exists. We generalize some key results of stochastic realization theory, and show that the problem has deep connections with operator systems theory, giving possible insight to the lifting problem in quotient operator systems. Our results have potential applications in quantum machine learning, device-independent characterization and reverse-engineering of stochastic processes and quantum processors, and more generally, of dynamical processes with quantum memory [M. Guţă, Phys. Rev. A 83(6), 062324 (2011); M. Guţă and N. Yamamoto, e-print http://arxiv.org/abs/1303.3771 (2013)].

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

New Laboratory and Astrophysical Probes of Physics Beyond the Standard Model (Final Technical Report)

The first of these directions centers on new ideas in dark matter detection. As experimental scrutiny narrows the window for new physics at the weak scale, it has become apparent that the solution to the dark matter mystery may not reside there. Theoretical developments such as the hidden sector/valley paradigm have, at the same time, shown that compelling theories of dark matter reside below the weak scale. Searching for dark matter at lower mass scales requires looking beyond the current paradigm of dark matter direct detection based on nuclear recoils. It is the goal of this project to provide new ideas to guide the experimental program looking for light dark matter. I am actively proposing ideas for detecting dark matter as light as a meV, well beyond the current focus of GeV-TeV scale dark matter. Some of the ideas I have proposed, such as superconducting, superfluid, and polar material targets, are actively being developed into experiments. My group will provide the relevant calculations to determine dark matter reach, providing crucial input to experiment on which targets should be developed. We will also provide an effective field theory framework to understand which types of experiments are most sensitive to each interaction type. The second of these directions is on probes of dark matter substructure as a mean to constrain, or observe, models of dark matter. The standard ΛCDM paradigm assumes that the dark matter density perturbations are adiabatic, scale invariant, and produced during inflation. However, many standard models of dark matter will produce modifications of this prediction, such as axion models with symmetry broken below the inflationary scale. Remarkably, we have limited direct measurements of the dark matter clumpiness at mass scales below dwarf galaxies. This allows for the possibility of observing modifications from vanilla ΛCDM due to particle dynamics. In many cases, simulations of dark matter structure in the presence of non-scale invariant fluctu- ations are understudied or completely lacking. I plan to develop both theoretical predictions for small scale structure in models with additional matter power on small scales, as well as observa- tional probes of small scale halos or clumps. One idea I have been recently focused on is pulsar timing, though my group will pursue a variety of lensing and astrometric probes. Lastly, the most risky direction involves spacetime fluctuations from quantum gravity. I showed that if one assumes that metric fluctuations in the Minkowski vacuum, at a surface separating a region in and out of causal contact (which we call a “horizon”), are determined by standard thermodynamic considerations at horizon, these metric fluctuations are large enough to observe in an interferometer with similar sensitivity to LIGO. In a follow-up paper we showed that these assumption holds for the vacuum in AdS/CFT. In future work, I plan to connect this work to recent soft graviton results, to frame this work in a concrete Randall-Sundrum model, and to work out concrete phenomenological predictions from the model. This work unquestionably takes a less trodden path, and works well as part of a well-rounded portfolio of less and more risky ideas. Particle physics is currently at a juncture which requires bold exploration of qualitatively new directions. This proposal outlines some of my plans over the coming years in these directions, leaving room also for surprises.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Investigation of high-speed shaft bearing loads in wind turbine gearboxes through dynamometer testing

Many wind turbine gearboxes require repair or replacement well before reaching the end of their design life. The most common failure is bearing axial cracks, commonly called white etching cracks (WECs), which typically occur in the inner raceways of the high-speed parallel-stage rolling element bearings. Although the root causes of WECs are debated, one theory is that they are related to routine dynamic operating conditions and occasional transient events prevalent in wind turbines that can result in high bearing stress and sliding of the rolling elements. Here, this paper examined wind turbine gearbox high-speed shaft bearing loads and stresses through modeling and full-scale dynamometer testing. Bearing outer race loads were directly measured and predicted using a variety of modeling tools in normal operations, misaligned conditions, and transient events particularly prone to bearing sliding. Test data and models of bearing loads were well correlated. Neither operational misalignment due to rotor moments nor static generator misalignment affected the bearing loads when compared with pure-torque conditions. Thus, it is not likely that generator misalignment is a causal factor of WECs. In contrast, during transient events, the bearings experienced alternating periods of high stress, torque reversals, and loads under the minimum requisite at high rotating speeds while showing indications of sliding, all of which could be related to the formation of WECs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Embedding condition describing shearing, dissipative collapse

Highlights: • Perturbative approach to the time-dependent Karmarkar condition in shearing collapse. • Analysis of the (in)stability of the collapsing fluid using the TOV equation. • Study of the temperature profiles using a causal heat transport equation. In this work we employ the time-dependent Karmarkar condition to model dissipative gravitational collapse in the presence of shear which leads to a final static configuration. We believe that this is a first attempt at using the time-dependent Karmarkar condition describing a radiating star with shear in which the collapsing core dissipates energy in the form of a radial heat flux. The final static configuration which is described by an embedding class I spacetime was obtained by Hansraj and Moodly who showed that this solution satisfies all the physical requirements for a static compact object. As the collapse proceeds and the heat flux tends to zero the dynamical core evolves into a static compact core with the exterior spacetime being described by the vacuum Schwarzschild solution.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Flow, Aurora and PI2 Associations Observed by Themis

It has been known for decades that auroral substorm onset occurs on (or at least near) the most equatorward auroral arc, which is thought to map to the near geosynchronous region. The lack of auroral signatures poleward of this arc prior to onset has been a major criticism of flow-burst driven models of sub storm onset. The combined THEMIS 5 spacecraft in-situ and ground array measurements provide an unprecedented opportunity to examine the causal relationship between midtail plasma flows, aurora, and ground magnetic signatures. I first present an event from 2008 using multi-spectral all sky imager data from Gillam and in-situ data from THEMIS. The multispectral data indicate an equatorward moving auroral form prior to sub storm onset. When this forms reaches the most equatorward arc, the arc brightens and an auroral substorm begins. The THEMIS data show fast Earthward flows prior to onset as well. I suggest that the results strongly support flow-burst driven models of magnetospheric activity. I discuss further the association of flow bursts and Pi2 pulsations, and discuss the possibility of using Pi2 waveforms to infer midtail reconnection dynamics

Kepko, E. I.↗

Defining Collaborative Control Interactions Using Systems Theory

Human teams collaborate by establishing roles, changing functional authorities, maintaining team cognition, coordinating, and mutually helping one another close control loops. These complex inter-actions are inspiring novel concepts to improve human-machine and multi-machine collaboration. However, these new systems face engineering gaps in modeling, analysis, design, and assurance. As such, few have been fielded in safety-critical domains like aerospace. To analyze safety, this paper introduces a system-theoretic framework to describe interactions that are—or are planned to be—used in multi-controller systems. It outlines a taxonomy of seven structural dimensions that influence controller interactions and nine dynamics observed in collaborative control that are defined using Systems Theory. An analyzed set of 101 controller interactions in aerospace systems demonstrates how to apply the framework and that designers are trying to create more sophisticated systems. This framework provides the foundation to extend system-theoretic hazard analysis techniques to systematically find collabora-tive-control causal factors.

Human machine teaming↗

Space Borne and Ground-Based Observations of Transient Processes Occurring Around Substorm Onset

The combined THEMIS five spacecraft in-situ and ground magnetic and visible camera arrays have advanced considerably our understanding of the causal relationship between midtail plasma flows, transient ionospheric features, and ground magnetic signatures. In particular recent work has shown a connection between equatorward moving visible ionospheric transients and substorm onset, in both white-light and 6300 nm emissions. These observations, together with THEMIS in-situ measurements of bulk flows, provides strict constraints on the sequence of events leading to substorm auroral onset.We first provide a brief summary of these observations, highlighting in particular areas where the two observations differ, and suggest reasons for the differences. Next, by combining the observed correlation of flow and Pi2 waveform with a unified model of global Pi2 generation and substorm current wedge initiation we present a self-consistent description of the dynamical processes and communicative pathways that occur just prior to and during substorm expansion onset.

Kepko, L.↗

Transient Relativistic Fluid Dynamics in a General Hydrodynamic Frame

In this work, we propose a new theory of second-order viscous relativistic hydrodynamics which does not impose any frame conditions on the choice of the hydrodynamic variables. It differs from Mueller-Israel-Stewart theory by including additional transient degrees of freedom, and its first-order truncation reduces to Bemfica-Disconzi-Noronha-Kovtun theory. Conditions for causality and stability are explicitly given in the conformal regime. As an illustrative example, we consider Bjorken flow solutions to our equations and identify variables which make a hydrodynamic attractor manifest.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗