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At least 127 records · Page 7

Evaluation of historical precipitation interannual variability in CMIP6 over the United States

Interannual precipitation variability profoundly influences society via its effects on agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and disaster risks. In this study, we use daily in situ precipitation observations from the global historical climatology network-daily (GHCN-D) to assess the ability of 21 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, including the 50-member fifth-generation Canadian Earth System Model single model initial-condition large ensemble (CanESM5_SMILE), to realistically simulate historical interannual precipitation variability trends within 17 regions of the contiguous United States (CONUS). We assess how accurately the CMIP6 simulations align with observational data across annual, summer, and winter periods, focusing on four key hydrometeorological metrics, including interannual precipitation variability, relative interannual precipitation variability (coefficient of variation), annual mean precipitation, and annual wet day frequency. Our findings reveal that CMIP6 ensemble members generally reproduce the spatial patterns of observed trends in annual mean precipitation. In most regions, models agree well with the signs of observed changes in annual mean precipitation, though discrepancies in trend magnitude are evident. Further, observed trends in winter mean precipitation broadly exhibit a spatial pattern similar to that of the observed annual mean. However, analysis of the CanESM5_SMILE shows that trends in precipitation variability may primarily be the result of model-simulated internal variability, suggesting caution in interpreting multi-model single-realization ensemble results. Challenges in accurately simulating interannual precipitation variability underscore the need for ongoing model refinement and validation to enhance climate projections, especially in regions vulnerable to extreme precipitation events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Resilient U.S. Land Ports of Entry

The continued operation of Land Ports of Entry (LPOE), managed by the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and General Services Administration% is vital to the U.S. economy and security. Border faculties are included in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Government Facilities Sector2, one of the 16 critical infrastructures "whose assets, systems, and networks, whether physical or virtual, are considered so vital to the United States that their incapacitation or destruction would have a debilitating effect on security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination thereof.'" Specifically, disruptions to the flow of border crossing traffic, in the form of closures or increased border crossing wait times, impact the economy and security of all countries involved. This paper describes a process for analyzing and improving the resilience of U.S. Land Ports of Entry. For LPOE, the team believes that energy resilience is the primary objective due to the complete reliance on the e-manifest system and the increasing use of Multi-Energy Portals (MEPs). Emanifests are part of CPB's Automated Commercial Environment (ACE). They document several key pieces of information about cargo vehicles wishing to cross the border into the United States and are submitted before arriving at the port. Vehicles can be flagged for more invasive inspection based on the content of the e-manifest. MEPs are a non-intrusive inspection (NII) technology used to scan the contents of the cargo. Together MEPs and ACE serve an important role in aiding CBP with their mission to protect "the public from dangerous people and materials", and "enabling legitimate trade and travel.'" To analyze resilience of a port, the team would need to understand the port's current energy usage, which systems depend on energy and what backup systems exist, and any emergency operation plans that dictate how systems are operated in the event of a power outage. The team would also need to determine the design basis threats (DBTs) for the LPOE which could include natural disasters, manmade events, and accidents. The magnitudes of the DBTs are calculated and are then translated to expected impacts on the infrastructure and systems at the port. With this information gathered, existing LPOE models developed here at Sandia National Laboratories could be extended to support decisions about resilience. Current models are implemented in FlexSim, a 3rd party discrete event simulator. FlexSim provides 3-D visuals of physical layout that can reveal valuable insights, allows input to be variable (e.g. time it takes to interact with the CBP officer at primary inspection can vary) so that a whole range of possibilities can be captured in the results, and can be used to collect user-defined output metrics. Current LPOE models focus on cargo vehicle traffic, and process changes caused by the installation of new drive-through MEPs. Extending them to address resilience questions would require the addition of key pieces of information learned during the resilience analysis including critical systems, failure rates, and process changes for when failures occur. The primary output metric for current models is border crossing wait time. Additional metrics would also be added to the model to gain a more complete understanding of impacts related to resilience, for example, MEP scan rate. Once complete, the model could be used to analyze the effectiveness of mitigation strategies representing some future state.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Dynamics and Control of Microgrids as a Resiliency Source

Microgrids can be operated in a utility-connected mode with the neighboring distribution system or in an islanded mode in separation with the distribution system. As the major disasters occur more and more often, islanded microgrid is proposed as a possible solution to serve essential loads until the utility service is restored. This paper evaluates the feasibility of using microgrids as a resiliency resource by a field test. A control scheme, integrating droop control and feedback control, is applied on a modified IEEE 13-node test feeders. The simulation results validate the proposed control scheme and the transient stability

Lee, Lung-An↗

Redundant Disk Arrays in Transaction Processing Systems

We address various issues dealing with the use of disk arrays in transaction processing environments. We look at the problem of transaction undo recovery and propose a scheme for using the redundancy in disk arrays to support undo recovery. The scheme uses twin page storage for the parity information in the array. It speeds up transaction processing by eliminating the need for undo logging for most transactions. The use of redundant arrays of distributed disks to provide recovery from disasters as well as temporary site failures and disk crashes is also studied. We investigate the problem of assigning the sites of a distributed storage system to redundant arrays in such a way that a cost of maintaining the redundant parity information is minimized. Heuristic algorithms for solving the site partitioning problem are proposed and their performance is evaluated using simulation. We also develop a heuristic for which an upper bound on the deviation from the optimal solution can be established.

Mourad, Antoine Nagib↗

NAS Exploratory Concepts & Technologies (NExCT) Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM) Collaborative Evaluation #1 (CE-1)

NASA, in partnership with AeroVironment and Aerostar, recently demonstrated a first-of-its-kind air traffic management concept that could pave the way for aircraft to safely operate at higher altitudes. This work seeks to open the door for increased internet coverage, improved disaster response, expanded scientific missions, and even supersonic flight. The concept is referred to as an Upper-Class E traffic management, or ETM. NASA and its partners have developed an ETM traffic management system that allows aircraft to autonomously share location and flight plans, enabling aircraft to stay safely separated. This concept was demonstrated during the recent traffic management simulation in the Airspace Operations Laboratory at Ames, data from multiple air vehicles was displayed across dozens of traffic control monitors and shared with partner computers off site. The study details and the initial results are presented at a regular, informal ETM industry meetings held virtually.

Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM)↗

Topography-based Flood Planning and Optimization Capability Development Report

Globally, water-related disasters are among the most frequent and costly natural hazards. Flooding inflicts catastrophic damage on critical infrastructure and population, resulting in substantial economic and social costs. NISAC is developing LeveeSim, a suite of nonlinear and network optimization models, to predict optimal barrier placement to protect critical regions and infrastructure during flood events. LeveeSim currently includes a high-performance flood model to simulate overland flow, as well as a network optimization model to predict optimal barrier placement during a flood event. The LeveeSim suite models the effects of flooding in predefined regions. By manipulating a domain’s underlying topography, developers altered flood propagation to reduce detrimental effects in areas of interest. This numerical altering of a domain’s topography is analogous to building levees, placing sandbags, etc. To induce optimal changes in topography, NISAC used a novel application of an optimization algorithm to minimize flooding effects in regions of interest. To develop LeveeSim, NISAC constructed and coupled hydrodynamic and optimization algorithms. NISAC first implemented its existing flood modeling software to use massively parallel graphics processing units (GPUs), which allowed for the simulation of larger domains and longer timescales. NISAC then implemented a network optimization model to predict optimal barrier placement based on output from flood simulations. As proof of concept, NISAC developed five simple test scenarios, and optimized topographic solutions were compared with intuitive solutions. Finally, as an early validation example, barrier placement was optimized to protect an arbitrary region in a simulation of the historic Taum Sauk dam breach.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Cyber-Physical Reconfiguration for Disaster Resilience of Power Distribution Systems

Cyber-physical distribution systems (CPDS) have emerged from the integration of information technology into distribution systems. While offering substantial benefits, this integration also introduces vulnerabilities. The interaction between cyber networks and distribution systems renders CPDS susceptible to disasters. To ensure critical load supply and system resilience, rapid post-disaster load restoration is required. The paper proposes a critical load restoration (CLR) framework in CPDS using a network reconfiguration approach that exploits the existing post-disaster resources to restore critical loads within the shortest possible time. Using graph theory, the cyber network and distribution system are integrated into a single digraph, minimizing the CLR complexity in CPDS. A cost metric is also defined to satisfy network-specific objectives and constraints. A heuristic is proposed to guide the load restoration process using the cost metric within the integrated digraph. Simulation results confirm the framework's superiority over existing literature, which either overlooks cyber components or prolongs restoration with additional resource deployment.

cyber-physical system↗

Information Power Grid: Distributed High-Performance Computing and Large-Scale Data Management for Science and Engineering

We use the term "Grid" to refer to distributed, high performance computing and data handling infrastructure that incorporates geographically and organizationally dispersed, heterogeneous resources that are persistent and supported. This infrastructure includes: (1) Tools for constructing collaborative, application oriented Problem Solving Environments / Frameworks (the primary user interfaces for Grids); (2) Programming environments, tools, and services providing various approaches for building applications that use aggregated computing and storage resources, and federated data sources; (3) Comprehensive and consistent set of location independent tools and services for accessing and managing dynamic collections of widely distributed resources: heterogeneous computing systems, storage systems, real-time data sources and instruments, human collaborators, and communications systems; (4) Operational infrastructure including management tools for distributed systems and distributed resources, user services, accounting and auditing, strong and location independent user authentication and authorization, and overall system security services The vision for NASA's Information Power Grid - a computing and data Grid - is that it will provide significant new capabilities to scientists and engineers by facilitating routine construction of information based problem solving environments / frameworks. Such Grids will knit together widely distributed computing, data, instrument, and human resources into just-in-time systems that can address complex and large-scale computing and data analysis problems. Examples of these problems include: (1) Coupled, multidisciplinary simulations too large for single systems (e.g., multi-component NPSS turbomachine simulation); (2) Use of widely distributed, federated data archives (e.g., simultaneous access to metrological, topological, aircraft performance, and flight path scheduling databases supporting a National Air Space Simulation systems}; (3) Coupling large-scale computing and data systems to scientific and engineering instruments (e.g., realtime interaction with experiments through real-time data analysis and interpretation presented to the experimentalist in ways that allow direct interaction with the experiment (instead of just with instrument control); (5) Highly interactive, augmented reality and virtual reality remote collaborations (e.g., Ames / Boeing Remote Help Desk providing field maintenance use of coupled video and NDI to a remote, on-line airframe structures expert who uses this data to index into detailed design databases, and returns 3D internal aircraft geometry to the field); (5) Single computational problems too large for any single system (e.g. the rotocraft reference calculation). Grids also have the potential to provide pools of resources that could be called on in extraordinary / rapid response situations (such as disaster response) because they can provide common interfaces and access mechanisms, standardized management, and uniform user authentication and authorization, for large collections of distributed resources (whether or not they normally function in concert). IPG development and deployment is addressing requirements obtained by analyzing a number of different application areas, in particular from the NASA Aero-Space Technology Enterprise. This analysis has focussed primarily on two types of users: the scientist / design engineer whose primary interest is problem solving (e.g. determining wing aerodynamic characteristics in many different operating environments), and whose primary interface to IPG will be through various sorts of problem solving frameworks. The second type of user is the tool designer: the computational scientists who convert physics and mathematics into code that can simulate the physical world. These are the two primary users of IPG, and they have rather different requirements. The results of the analysis of the needs of these two types of users provides a broad set of requirements that gives rise to a general set of required capabilities. The IPG project is intended to address all of these requirements. In some cases the required computing technology exists, and in some cases it must be researched and developed. The project is using available technology to provide a prototype set of capabilities in a persistent distributed computing testbed. Beyond this, there are required capabilities that are not immediately available, and whose development spans the range from near-term engineering development (one to two years) to much longer term R&D (three to six years). Additional information is contained in the original.

Johnston, William E.↗

Potential of VIIRS Time Series Data for Aiding the USDA Forest Service Early Warning System for Forest Health Threats: A Gypsy Moth Defoliation Case Study

The Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 mandated that a national forest threat Early Warning System (EWS) be developed. The USFS (USDA Forest Service) is currently building this EWS. NASA is helping the USFS to integrate remotely sensed data into the EWS, including MODIS data for monitoring forest disturbance at broad regional scales. This RPC experiment assesses the potential of VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data for contribution to the EWS. In doing so, the RPC project employed multitemporal simulated VIIRS and MODIS data for detecting and monitoring forest defoliation from the non-native Eurasian gypsy moth (Lymantria despar). Gypsy moth is an invasive species threatening eastern U.S. hardwood forests. It is one of eight major forest insect threats listed in the Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003. This RPC experiment is relevant to several nationally important mapping applications, including carbon management, ecological forecasting, coastal management, and disaster management

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

Preliminary Investigation of Civil Tiltrotor in NextGen Airspace

Presentation intro: Tiltrotor aircraft have long been envisioned as being a potentially viable means of commercial aviation transport. Preliminary results from an ongoing study into the operational and technological considerations of Civil Tiltrotor (CTR) operation in the Next Generation airspace, circa the 2025 time-frame, are presented and discussed. In particular, a fleet of CTR aircraft has been conceptually designed. The performance characteristics of this CTR fleet was subsequently translated into BADA (Base of Aircraft DAta) models that could be used as input to emulate CTR aircraft operations in the ACES and AvTerminal airspace and terminal area simulation tools. A network of nine North-Eastern corridor airports is the focus of the airspace simulation effort; the results from this airport network viII then be extrapolated to provide insights into systemic impact of CTRs on the National Airspace System (NAS). Future work will also be detailed as to attempts to model the systemic effects of noise and emissions from this fleet of new aircraft as well as assess their leveraged impact on public service missions, in time of need, such as major regional/national disaster relief efforts. The ideal outcome of this study is a set of results whereby Next Gen airspace CONOPs can be refined to reflect potential CTR capabilities and, conversely, CTR technology development efforts can be better informed as to key performance requirement thresholds needed to be met in order to successfully introduce these aircraft into civilian aviation operation.

Young, Larry A.↗

SMART Subsea Cables for Observing the Earth and Ocean, Mitigating Environmental Hazards, and Supporting the Blue Economy

The Joint Task Force, Science Monitoring And Reliable Telecommunications (JTF SMART) Subsea Cables, is working to integrate environmental sensors for ocean bottom temperature, pressure, and seismic acceleration into submarine telecommunications cables. The purpose of SMART Cables is to support climate and ocean observation, sea level monitoring, observations of Earth structure, and tsunami and earthquake early warning and disaster risk reduction, including hazard quantification. Recent advances include regional SMART pilot systems that are the first steps to trans-ocean and global implementation. Examples of pilots include: InSEA wet demonstration project off Sicily at the European Multidisciplinary Seafloor and water column Observatory Western Ionian Facility; New Caledonia and Vanuatu; French Polynesia Natitua South system connecting Tahiti to Tubaui to the south; Indonesia starting with short pilot systems working toward systems for the Sumatra-Java megathrust zone; and the CAM-2 ring system connecting Lisbon, Azores, and Madeira. This paper describes observing system simulations for these and other regions. Funding reflects a blend of government, development bank, philanthropic foundation, and commercial contributions. In addition to notable scientific and societal benefits, the telecommunications enterprise’s mission of global connectivity will benefit directly, as environmental awareness improves both the integrity of individual cable systems as well as the resilience of the overall global communications network. SMART cables support the outcomes of a predicted, safe, and transparent ocean as envisioned by the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development and the Blue Economy. As a continuation of the OceanObs’19 conference and community white paper (Howe et al., 2019, 10.3389/fmars.2019.00424), an overview of the SMART programme and a description of the status of ongoing projects are given.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Co-optimization of repairs and dynamic network reconfiguration for improved distribution system resilience

In this work, a post-disaster distribution system repair and restoration (DSRR) strategy is proposed to improve distribution system resilience. The DSRR strategy is formulated as a two-stage optimization. The first stage is a comprehensive co-optimization of repair crew scheduling, dynamic network reconfiguration, and distributed energy resource (DER) dispatch based on the forecast load profile. The goal is to minimize the accumulative operating cost caused by the load reduction payment as well as DER operating cost. In particular, since the number of available repair crews is usually smaller than the number of faulted lines after a disaster event, the DSRR strategy determines the optimal scheduling for repairing faulted lines. The second stage is a re-dispatch of the DER power output and load shedding based on the real-time load demand of each bus. The proposed algorithm is validated by case studies of the IEEE 33-bus and 123-bus test systems. We consider those scenarios in which faults occur in multiple heavy-loaded feeders. The simulation results demonstrate that the DSRR strategy effectively coordinate the repair scheduling, network reconfiguration and load shedding to minimize the operating cost.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Proactive Posturing of Large Power Grid for Mitigating Hurricane Impacts

In the past decade, natural disasters such as hurricanes have challenged the operation and control of U.S. power grid more. It is crucial to develop proactive strategies to assist grid operators for better emergency response and minimized electricity service interruptions. In this paper, we propose a proactive posturing methodology of power system elements, and formulated a Security-Constrained Optimal Power Flow (SCOPF) that informed by cross-domain hurricane modeling and its potential impacts on the grid elements. Simulation results based on real-world power grid and historical hurricane event validated the applicability of the proposed optimization formulation, and show potential to enable grid operators and planners with interactive cross-domain data analytics in mitigating hurricane impacts.

power system emergency response, security constrai↗

Resilience Evaluation and Enhancement for Island City Integrated Energy Systems

Extreme natural hazards, such as hurricanes or earthquakes, have a high probability of threatening energy supply security and causing high-order contingencies to island city-integrated energy systems (IC-IESs). To better evaluate and enhance resilience, a novel approach is proposed in this work for IC-IESs. The resilience of an IC-IES is analyzed from both the system level and the component level. At the system level, the impacts of extreme natural disasters are quantified. At the component level, the importance of individual components is analyzed through pre-failure and post-failure indices. The pre-failure index identifies the system’s weak links before an energy interruption, and the post-failure index determines the optimal repair strategy to restore the service. The proposed indices are solved by the impact increment method (IIM), which significantly improves computational efficiency without much affecting result accuracy. Numerical simulation studies are conducted on the modified Barry Island IES and IES E123-G48-H32 test systems. Furthermore, the results validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Monitoring Changes of Tropical Extreme Rainfall Events Using Differential Absorption Barometric Radar (DiBAR)

This work studies the potential of monitoring changes in tropical extreme rainfall events such as tropical storms from space using a Differential-absorption BArometric Radar (DiBAR) operating at 50-55 gigahertz O2 absorption band to remotely measure sea surface air pressure. Air pressure is among the most important variables that affect atmospheric dynamics, and currently can only be measured by limited in-situ observations over oceans. Analyses show that with the proposed radar the errors in instantaneous (averaged) pressure estimates can be as low as approximately 5 millibars (approximately 1 millibar) under all weather conditions. With these sea level pressure measurements, the forecasts, analyses and understanding of these extreme events in both short and long time scales can be improved. Severe weathers, especially hurricanes, are listed as one of core areas that need improved observations and predictions in WCRP (World Climate Research Program) and NASA Decadal Survey (DS) and have major impacts on public safety and national security through disaster mitigation. Since the development of the DiBAR concept about a decade ago, our team has made substantial progress in advancing the concept. Our feasibility assessment clearly shows the potential of sea surface barometry using existing radar technologies. We have developed a DiBAR system design, fabricated a Prototype-DiBAR (P-DiBAR) for proof-of-concept, conducted lab, ground and airborne P-DiBAR tests. The flight test results are consistent with our instrumentation goals. Observational system simulation experiments for space DiBAR performance show substantial improvements in tropical storm predictions, not only for the hurricane track and position but also for the hurricane intensity. DiBAR measurements will lead us to an unprecedented level of the prediction and knowledge on tropical extreme rainfall weather and climate conditions.

Lin, Bing↗

Mississippi State University Cooling, Heating, and Power (Micro-CHP) and Bio-Fuel Center

Between 2008 and 2014, the U.S. Department of Energy funded the MSU Micro-CHP and Bio-Fuel Center located at Mississippi State University. The overall objective of this project was to enable micro-CHP (micro-combined heat and power) utilization, to facilitate and promote the use of CHP systems and to educate architects, engineers, and agricultural producers and scientists on the benefits of CHP systems. Therefore, the work of the Center focused on the three areas: CHP system modeling and optimization, outreach, and research. In general, the results obtained from this project demonstrated that CHP systems are attractive because they can provide energy, environmental, and economic benefits. Some of these benefits include the potential to reduce operational cost, carbon dioxide emissions, primary energy consumption, and power reliability during electric grid disruptions. The knowledge disseminated in numerous journal and conference papers from the outcomes of this project is beneficial to engineers, architects, agricultural producers, scientists and the public in general who are interested in CHP technology and applications. In addition, more than 48 graduate students and 23 undergraduate students, benefited from the training and research performed in the MSU Micro-CHP and Bio-Fuel Center. The project scope consisted of six separate, but related areas: 1. Micro-CHP modeling - Computational simulations and verification/validation studies of selected models for technical and economic viability. 2. Fuel flexibility in micro-CHP applications – Demonstrating and quantifying the operation of micro-CHP systems on alternative fuels. 3. Outreach activities – Providing provide educational materials for engineers and architects and conducting outreach seminars, workshops, and demonstrations for engineers and architects as well as for more general audiences. 4. Biofuel and opportunity fuel processing and utilization – Determining the processing requirements and feasibility to utilize biofuels and disaster debris for micro-CHP systems. 5. CHP Systems Optimization – Optimization of internal combustion and Stirling engines integrated with heat recovery systems for CHP operation. 6. Distributed Generation and Grid Interconnection – Developing requirements and control systems for interconnection of micro-CHP systems with the electrical grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Lotic Water Hydrodynamic Model

Water-related natural disasters, for example, floods and droughts, are among the most frequent and costly natural hazards, both socially and economically. Many of these floods are a result of excess rainfall collecting in streams and rivers, and subsequently overtopping banks and flowing overland into urban environments. Floods can cause physical damage to critical infrastructure and present health risks through the spread of waterborne diseases. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has developed Lotic, a state-of-the-art surface water hydrodynamic model, to simulate propagation of flood waves originating from a variety of events. Lotic is a two-dimensional (2D) flood model that has been used primarily for simulations in which overland water flows are characterized by movement in two dimensions, such as flood waves expected from rainfall-runoff events, storm surge, and tsunamis. In 2013, LANL developers enhanced Lotic through several development efforts. These developments included enhancements to the 2D simulation engine, including numerical formulation, computational efficiency developments, and visualization. Stakeholders can use simulation results to estimate infrastructure damage and cascading consequences within other sets of infrastructure, as well as to inform the development of flood mitigation strategies.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multi-Model Subseasonal Prediction Experiment

SubX is a multi-model subseasonal prediction experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving subseasonal forecasts. Seven global models have produced seventeen years of retrospective (re-) forecasts and more than a year of weekly real-time forecasts. The re-forecasts and forecasts are archived at the Data Library of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, providing a comprehensive database for research on subseasonal to seasonal predictability and predictions. The SubX models show skill for temperature and precipitation three weeks ahead of time in specific regions. The SubX multi-model ensemble mean is more skillful than any individual model overall. Skill in simulating the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), two sources of subseasonal predictability, is also evaluated with skillful predictions of the MJO four weeks in advance and of the NAO 2 weeks in advance. SubX is also able to make useful contributions to operational forecast guidance at the Climate Prediction Center. Additionally, SubX provides information on the potential for extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones which can help emergency management and aid organizations to plan for disasters. (Capsule Summary) A research to operations project in service of developing better operational subseasonal forecasts.

Precipitation↗