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At least 127 records · Page 7

Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties

Abstract The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink‐source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO 2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO 2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high‐latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO 2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO 2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km 2 ) across the high‐latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE‐focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO 2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m −2 yr −1 , respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m −2 yr −1 ). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO 2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high‐latitude region was on average an annual CO 2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.

Virkkala, Anna‐Maria↗

Tensile Property and Lifetime Prediction for Low-Temperature Aged Uranium-Niobium Alloys

Thermal aging models and lifetime predictions for uranium-niobium (U-Nb) alloys were created using an approach similar to those previously employed. Lifetime estimates for generic U-6Nb components were thus updated; the reported value being 800 years. This update represents a small change in lifetime vs. that of the 2012 assessment (540 years). This lifetime estimate emerged from consideration of several model fits specific to the aging datasets and properties chosen. Aging was quantified using quasi-static tensile properties measured on specimens artificially aged for up to 10 years. The major change relative to the most recent 2012 LANL assessment was that a more comprehensive body of U-Nb literature data was mined, in addition to being augmented by the latest LANL and UK AWE data. The tensile data compilation was published separately (LANL report LA-14493, December 2016). Recognizing the chemical banding of industrially produced U-6Nb, models were developed for the mid-range (6 wt.%) and extrema (4 and 8 wt.%) compositions. Lifetime estimates were calculated for all three alloy classes (4, 6, 8 wt.% nominal) and two measures of total tensile elongation (TE) to failure, namely TE-ext. — extensometer method, and TE-NCD — normalized crosshead displacement method. The conservative assumption was made that whichever composition (4, 6, or 8 wt.% Nb) and property (TE-ext or TE-NCD) was the first to cross the ductility failure threshold would limit the lifetime of the entire component. Tensile strength properties did not figure into the lifetime predictions, but could be useful as age-sensitive diagnostics and were also modeled. Of these, only first yield strength is expected to show a change at 40°C aging vs. time = 0 over the ~100-year timespan of engineering interest. Second yield strength evolves more slowly, and ultimate tensile strength slower still. Among all the models, the apparent activation energies for aging were mostly in the narrow 29– 37 kcal/mol range, which is close to that for diffusion of Nb in gamma-uranium. This agreement may be coincidental. The data from recent long-term aging studies substantially improved the model fit quality and robustness of the lifetimes. Appendices document sensitivity studies of the model fits and lifetimes with respect to using more limited datasets. These results highlight the limitations of relying solely on data from scattered literature studies and smaller datasets more generally.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Similarity of urinary risk factors among stone-forming patients in five regions of the United States

Study Objective: To compare urinary biochemical risk factors among stone-forming patients in the Southeast (SE) or "stone belt" versus four other regions of the United States. Design: Prospective biochemical survey for regional comparisons. Setting: Referral-based nephrolithiasis clinics, urologists, nephrologists, and family practitioners. Patients: Consecutive sample of 3473 stone-forming patients who submitted 24-hour urine collections for biochemical analyses of stone-forming risk factors. Interventions: None. Subjects taking medication known to interfere with stone-forming risk factors were deleted from the final data compilation. Measurements and Main Results: Overall, the mean values for each urinary parameter spanned a narrow range without significant difference between the five regions. Among "metabolic" factors, 40% in the SE had hypercalciuria (> 6.25 mmol/d), compared to 35%-43% in other regions, and hyperuricosuria (> 4.2 mmol/d) was found in 16% in the SE versus 17%-19% elsewhere. Among "environmental" factors, low urine volume ( < 2 L/d) was found in 77% patients in the SE compared to 69%-78% elsewhere, and high sodium was encountered in 27% in the SE versus 24%-29% elsewhere. No differences were noted in occurrence of other abnormal risk factors: hyperoxaluria, hypocitraturia, low pH, high sulfate, high phosphorus, or low magnesium. Conclusions: Despite expected regional differences in nutritional and environmental influences, the results of this study showed a striking similarity in urinary biochemical risk factor profiles of stone-formers in all five regions of the United States.

NASA Discipline Number 18-10↗

Variation in the contribution of macroinvertebrates to wood decomposition as it progresses

Abstract Although necromass decay rates are limited by the slowest portions to decompose, most decomposition studies examine only the earliest stage of decay. As such, these studies run the risk of yielding misleading results regarding the relative contributions of different decomposers. For example, the contributions of macroinvertebrates to wood decomposition remain mostly unknown beyond the first 50% of mass lost, despite drastic changes in substrate conditions over time. We sought to clarify how the macroinvertebrate contribution to decay changes over the course of wood decomposition in the Southeastern United States—a region with a long history of wood decomposition research. To this end, we (1) compiled data from published studies comparing wood decay with and without macroinvertebrates; and (2) conducted a field study assessing wood mass loss, with and without macroinvertebrate access, at three sites across the region over four years. With these combined data, we analyzed macroinvertebrate contribution as decay progressed, revealing a quadratic relationship, wherein macroinvertebrate contribution increased early in decomposition and then began to decline as decay progressed. Strong local site effects, particularly the abundance and activity of termites, determine the time required for wood to reach this point of mass loss.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

A multi-criteria CCUS screening evaluation of the Gulf of Mexico, USA

Continued research into reservoir characterization along with offshore carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) transportation and infrastructure assets is needed to facilitate development of safe and successful carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) projects. This paper outlines a multi-criteria evaluation methodology that incorporates disparate sets of quantitative, spatially variable data into a decision-making framework for screening the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) outer continental shelf (OCS) for potentially viable CO 2 storage and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) sites. Criteria categories include favorable geologic characteristics, logistics, and potential risks. Data compiled for 14 criteria from several publicly available geographic information system (GIS) layers was aggregated over 2559 spatially balanced points across the study area using the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL)-developed Cumulative Spatial Impact Layers™ (CSIL) GIS tool. Criteria are weighted by qualitative expert opinion relative to their perceived importance to given scenarios— the output of combined criteria values and weights enables regional CO 2 storage suitability differentiation. The methodology considers both technical and non-technical factors impacting CCUS decision-making. The flexible methodology enables a systematic approach to regional ranking at high spatial resolution over a large study domain. Additionally, the framework enables high-grading of priority sites that warrant further characterization and follow-on analysis. Areas along the Louisiana coast and Mississippi River Delta consistently rank high for all scenarios largely a result of the favorable geology with the potential for stacked storage, as well as the density of existing pipelines and platforms, and proximity to several onshore CO 2 sources. High-graded regions for the CO 2 EOR-related scenarios are typically located further offshore towards the middle and edge of the OCS compared to higher priority regions for the geologic storage scenarios which fall closer to the Louisiana coastline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Precambrian Crystalline Basement Properties From Pressure History Matching and Implications for Induced Seismicity in the US Midcontinent

Injection-induced seismicity across the US midcontinent has almost exclusively occurred in the crystalline basement that underlies the Arbuckle Group aquifer and its equivalents, the primary wastewater disposal zone in this region. However, the properties of the basement are not well known. Newly compiled data, from Class I wells in Kansas, provide a unique record of pressures in the Arbuckle and an opportunity to constrain the reservoir-scale properties of the basement such as permeability, diffusivity, and specific storage. Constraints on these parameters are critical for modeling fluid flow and pressures across the entire Arbuckle-basement system, and are necessary for accurate evaluation and prediction of injection-induced earthquakes. Here, we present a detailed, three-dimensional geological and pressure history-matched numerical model for the Arbuckle and basement, based on data from >400 wells covering a large region in south-central Kansas, where injection-induced seismicity has been concentrated since 2014. Simulations of dynamic data from 319 wells indicate that Arbuckle pressures have increased by 1.1 MPa in high injection rate areas and an overpressure of <0.1 MPa may be the cause of seismicity in the basement. Pressure-history matching also yields the likely range in porosity (0.3%–7%), permeability (0.1–0.7 mD), and diffusivity (0.004–0.07 m2 /s) for the basement. The resulting estimates suggest reservoir-scale properties of the basement are enhanced by faults and fractures. Importantly, the diffusivities determined in this study are lower than estimates derived from Kansas earthquake triggering fronts, and suggest that such seismicity-based techniques may have limitations, particularly where spacetime patterns between injection and seismicity are complex.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Taxonomic and environmental distribution of bacterial amino acid auxotrophies

Abstract Many microorganisms are auxotrophic—unable to synthesize the compounds they require for growth. With this work, we quantify the prevalence of amino acid auxotrophies across a broad diversity of bacteria and habitats. We predicted the amino acid biosynthetic capabilities of 26,277 unique bacterial genomes spanning 12 phyla using a metabolic pathway model validated with empirical data. Amino acid auxotrophy is widespread across bacterial phyla, but we conservatively estimate that the majority of taxa (78.4%) are able to synthesize all amino acids. Our estimates indicate that amino acid auxotrophies are more prevalent among obligate intracellular parasites and in free-living taxa with genomic attributes characteristic of ‘streamlined’ life history strategies. We predicted the amino acid biosynthetic capabilities of bacterial communities found in 12 unique habitats to investigate environmental associations with auxotrophy, using data compiled from 3813 samples spanning major aquatic, terrestrial, and engineered environments. Auxotrophic taxa were more abundant in host-associated environments (including the human oral cavity and gut) and in fermented food products, with auxotrophic taxa being relatively rare in soil and aquatic systems. Overall, this work contributes to a more complete understanding of amino acid auxotrophy across the bacterial tree of life and the ecological contexts in which auxotrophy can be a successful strategy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Publishing unbinned differential cross section results

Machine learning tools have empowered a qualitatively new way to perform differential cross section measurements whereby the data are unbinned, possibly in many dimensions. Unbinned measurements can enable, improve, or at least simplify comparisons between experiments and with theoretical predictions. Furthermore, many-dimensional measurements can be used to define observables after the measurement instead of before. There is currently no community standard for publishing unbinned data. While there are also essentially no measurements of this type public, unbinned measurements are expected in the near future given recent methodological advances. The purpose of this paper is to propose a scheme for presenting and using unbinned results, which can hopefully form the basis for a community standard to allow for integration into analysis workflows. This is foreseen to be the start of an evolving community dialogue, in order to accommodate future developments in this field that is rapidly evolving.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Salt marsh soil organic carbon is regulated by drivers of microbial activity

Abstract Soil organic carbon is the foundation for soil health and a livable climate. Organic carbon is concentrated in coastal wetland soils, but dynamics that govern carbon persistence in coastal ecosystems remain incompletely understood. Whether microbial activity results in a gain or loss of carbon depends on environmental conditions that regulate microbial community attributes. We sought to identify which drivers of microbial activity have the greatest impact on organic carbon content in salt marsh soils. To address this question, we used the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-analyses) statement to compile data on soil and ecosystem characteristics from 50 studies of over 60 salt marshes located around the world. We conducted a meta-analysis with structural equation modeling, including mediation and moderation analyses, to identify environmental drivers of salt marsh soil organic carbon content. High salinity, pH, nitrogen, and phosphorus were associated with increased microbial biomass carbon and soil organic carbon. Correlations between microbial biomass and organic carbon were strengthened by soil salinity and nitrogen, and weakened by soil water content. These results suggest that environmental conditions that control microbial growth and activity have potential to preserve or degrade organic carbon in salt marsh soils.

Erb, Hailey (ORCID:0000000337295634)↗

H 0 = 69.8 ± 1.3 km s - 1 Mpc - 1 , Ω m 0 = 0.288 ± 0.017 , and other constraints from lower-redshift, non-CMB, expansion-rate data

Here, we use updated Type Ia Pantheon+ supernova, baryon acoustic oscillation, and Hubble parameter (now also accounting for correlations) data, as well as new reverberation-measured C $\tiny{IV}$ quasar data, and quasar angular size, H $\tiny{II}$ starburst galaxy, reverberation-measured Mg $\tiny{II}$ quasar, and Amati correlated gamma-ray burst data to constrain cosmological parameters. We show that these data sets result in mutually consistent constraints and jointly use them to constrain cosmological parameters in six different spatially-flat and non-flat cosmological models. Our analysis provides summary model independent determinations of two key cosmological parameters: the Hubble constant, H 0 = 69.8 ± 1.3 km s -1 Mpc -1 , and the current non-relativistic matter density parameter, Ω m0 = 0.288 ± 0.017. Our summary error bars are 2.4 and 2.3 times those obtained using the flat ΛCDM model and Planck TT,TE,EE + lowE + lensing cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy data. Our H 0 value is very consistent with that from the local expansion rate based on the Tip of the Red Giant Branch and Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) data, is 2σ lower than that from the local expansion rate based on Cepheid and SN Ia data, and is 2σ higher than that in the flat ΛCDM model based on Planck TT,TE,EE + lowE + lensing CMB data. Our data compilation shows at most mild evidence for non-flat spatial hypersurfaces, but more significant evidence for dark energy dynamics, 2σ or larger in the spatially-flat dynamical dark energy models we study.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Anoxia begets anoxia: A positive feedback to the deoxygenation of temperate lakes

Abstract Declining oxygen concentrations in the deep waters of lakes worldwide pose a pressing environmental and societal challenge. Existing theory suggests that low deep‐water dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations could trigger a positive feedback through which anoxia (i.e., very low DO) during a given summer begets increasingly severe occurrences of anoxia in following summers. Specifically, anoxic conditions can promote nutrient release from sediments, thereby stimulating phytoplankton growth, and subsequent phytoplankton decomposition can fuel heterotrophic respiration, resulting in increased spatial extent and duration of anoxia. However, while the individual relationships in this feedback are well established, to our knowledge, there has not been a systematic analysis within or across lakes that simultaneously demonstrates all of the mechanisms necessary to produce a positive feedback that reinforces anoxia. Here, we compiled data from 656 widespread temperate lakes and reservoirs to analyze the proposed anoxia begets anoxia feedback. Lakes in the dataset span a broad range of surface area (1–126,909 ha), maximum depth (6–370 m), and morphometry, with a median time‐series duration of 30 years at each lake. Using linear mixed models, we found support for each of the positive feedback relationships between anoxia, phosphorus concentrations, chlorophyll a concentrations, and oxygen demand across the 656‐lake dataset. Likewise, we found further support for these relationships by analyzing time‐series data from individual lakes. Our results indicate that the strength of these feedback relationships may vary with lake‐specific characteristics: For example, we found that surface phosphorus concentrations were more positively associated with chlorophyll a in high‐phosphorus lakes, and oxygen demand had a stronger influence on the extent of anoxia in deep lakes. Taken together, these results support the existence of a positive feedback that could magnify the effects of climate change and other anthropogenic pressures driving the development of anoxia in lakes around the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Holistic comparison of environmental barrier coating material candidates through design of a figure of merit

The first figure of merit for environmental barrier coating (EBC) materials was designed through a ranking system for material properties pertaining to established EBC failure modes in service. Seven past, present, and novel EBC candidate materials were used in the figure of merit design: SiO 2 , Ba 0.75 Sr 0.25 Al 2 Si 2 O 8 (BSAS), HfSiO 4 , Yb 2 Si 2 O 7 , Yb 2 SiO 5 , Yb 2 O 3 , and YbPO 4 . Utilizing compiled data from the literature, the presented figure of merit verified Yb 2 Si 2 O 7 as the state-of-the-art candidate with optimal EBC properties and inferred that YbPO 4 should be considered as a potentially viable EBC material candidate. Further, the figure of merit allows for a holistic comparison of EBC candidates and informs experimental and computational search efforts for next-generation complex EBCs. Clear knowledge gaps found through this work include CaO–MgO–Al 2 O 3 –SiO 2 (CMAS)-resistant coatings, EBC lifetimes before delamination, and oxidant diffusion rates in relevant EBC microstructures. It was shown that while some materials show promise for solving a single key failure mode for EBCs (i.e., CMAS reactivity), a community-wide goal should be placed on materials development to achieve acceptable resistance against all major failure modes, which are interconnected. Novel compositionally complex EBC materials, in addition to layered EBC architectures, show promise for the optimization of material properties for long-lifetime EBCs in combustion environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Time Dependence of Methane Generation Rates from Saltstone

This report documents the tests performed to address the requirements listed in the Technical Request, which resulted in a Task Technical & Quality Assurance Plan (TTQAP) and a Run Plan to obtain the required information. The research expands previous scoping work to better understand methane generation in the Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF). That scoping work demonstrated that methane is produced when sulfide-containing material is added to methylmercury (MeHg), which is found in the SDF Tank 50 feed waste. When Tank 50 waste is combined with grout premix solids dry feed ingredients of cement, slag cement, and fly ash, sulfides are released from the slag cement component of the premix. The prior testing results showed that while the concentration of total mercury was not affected in the pH 14 waste, the MeHg likely reacted with the sulfide contained in the slag. The scoping tests were performed in sealed reactors and thus, methane generation was not measured continuously; rather, it was measured after one hour and after 24 hours. After 24 hours, a large percentage of the MeHg was converted to methane, but after 1 hour only a small percentage of methane was released. It is noteworthy that the methane generation rate (MGR) was greater at the one-hour measurement. The data compiled from the scoping work needed to be expanded to better understand the generation of methane released from grout mixed with Tank 50 waste. This expanded study developed a more extensive knowledge of how and when methane is generated to inform the Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) of the SDF. As such, employing 8 sealed reactors, the methane generation time periods were extended to 2, 4, 6, 18, 30, 48, 72, and 96 hours (4 days). Results are documented herein to determine the capacity for MeHg, contained within Tank 50 salt solution (T50SS) simulant, to produce methane when mixed with saltstone dry feed ingredients, i.e., individual components (cement, slag, and fly ash) or a combination of those components.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Cost of Fish Exclusion Technologies for Hydropower

This dataset compiles data on the costs of environmental mitigations related to fish exclusion for 35 hydropower projects based on documents obtained from the U.S Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Data for all measures and their associated project-specific information, including installed and hydraulic capacities, were manually extracted from environmental impact statements and/or environmental assessment (EIS/EA) documents. All data were consolidated in a comma-separated (.csv) file, referred to as the Cost of Fish Exclusion Technologies for Hydropower Database.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Quantum Choreography of the Nucleus: Rotations, Vibrations, and Emergent Structure

Abstract Nuclei are complex many-body quantum systems where interactions of the neutrons and protons via the strong, the weak, and the electromagnetic forces lead to the emergence of simple patterns of energy states that have been described by various theoretical approaches. One of the goals of all the theoretical models is the development of a universal theory that can be applied across the entire chart of nuclides. Significant progress has been made by experiments as well as the increasing sophistication of models, but a universal theory has yet to be established. A recent review of nuclei in the Z = 50–82 region of the chart of nuclides has analyzed all the available compiled data from several decades of studies towards a clarification of the low-lying structure of nuclei. Other reviews have reported and explained the emergence of multiple different shapes in nuclei at somewhat higher excitation energies than the ground state. Some have challenged the interpretation of the first excited K π = 0 + band as a vibration of ground state. This work attempts to provide a guide to determining the nature of the first excited K π = 0 + band in nuclei by the combined use of nuclear lifetimes, energy level evolutions, dynamic moments of inertia, and intrinsic quadrupole moments extracted from transition probabilities. The result is that for a subset of the nuclei in this region, the K π = 0 + band is consistent with the traditional 𝛽-vibration description of an oscillation built on the ground state.

CHFB+5DCH↗