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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

An Extended Forecast of the Frequencies of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2009

An extended forecast of the frequencies for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season is presented. Continued increased activity during the 2009 season with numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes exceeding long-term averages are indicated. Poisson statistics for the combined high-activity intervals (1950-1965 and 1995-2008) give the central 50% intervals to be 9-14, 5-8, and 2-4, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, with a 23.4% chance of exceeding 14 tropical cyclones, a 28% chance of exceeding 8 hurricanes, and a 31.9% chance of exceeding 4 major hurricanes. Based strictly on the statistics of the current high-activity interval (1995-2008), the central 50% intervals for the numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12-18, 6-10, and 3-5, respectively, with only a 5% chance of exceeding 23, 13, or 7 storms, respectively. Also examined are the first differences in 10-yr moving averages and the effects of global warming and decadal-length oscillations on the frequencies of occurrence for North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. In particular, temperature now appears to be the principal driver of increased activity and storm strength during the current high-activity interval, with near-record values possible during the 2009 season.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The View from the Top: CALIOP Ice Water Content in the Uppermost Layer of Tropical Cyclones

NASA's CALIPSO satellite carries both the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and the Imaging Infrared Radiometer (IIR). The lidar is ideally suited to viewing the very top of tropical cyclones, and the IIR provides critical optical and microphysical information. The lidar and the IIR data work together to understand storm clouds since they are perfectly co-located, and big tropical cyclones provide an excellent complex target for comparing the observations. There is a lot of information from these case studies for understanding both the observations and the tropical cyclones, and we are just beginning to scratch the surface of what can be learned. Many tropical cyclone cloud particle measurements are focused on the middle and lower regions of storms, but characterization of cyclone interaction with the lowermost stratosphere at the upper storm boundary may be important for determining the total momentum and moisture transport budget, and perhaps for predicting storm intensity as well. A surprising amount of cloud ice is to be found at the very top of these big storms.

Avery, Melody A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Statistical Aspects of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2013

This Technical Publication (TP) is part 2 of a two-part study of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that occurred during the weather satellite era, 1960-2013. In particular, this TP examines the inferred statistical relationships between 25 tropical cyclone parameters and 9 specific climate-related factors, including the (1) Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), (2) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), (3) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, (4) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) index, (5) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), (6) NAO index of the Climate Research Unit (CRU), (7) Armagh surface air temperature (ASAT), (8) Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI), and (9) Mauna Loa carbon dioxide (CO2) (MLCO2) index. Part 1 of this two-part study examined the statistical aspects of the 25 tropical cyclone parameters (e.g., frequencies, peak wind speed (PWS), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), etc.) and provided the results of statistical testing (i.e., runs-testing, the t-statistic for independent samples, and Poisson distributions). Also, the study gave predictions for the frequencies of the number of tropical cyclones (NTC), number of hurricanes (NH), number of major hurricanes (NMH), and number of United States land-falling hurricanes (NUSLFH) expected for the 2014 season, based on the statistics of the overall interval 1960-2013, the subinterval 1995-2013, and whether the year 2014 would be either an El Niño year (ENY) or a non-El Niño year (NENY).

Wilson, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2013

Impact of Aerosols on Tropical Cyclones: An Investigation Using Convection-permitting Model Simulation

The role of aerosols effect on two tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal are investigated using a convection permitting model with two-moment mixed-phase bulk cloud microphysics scheme. The simulation results show the role of aerosol on the microphysical and dynamical properties of cloud and bring out the change in efficiency of the clouds in producing precipitation. The tracks of the TCs are hardly affected by the changing aerosol types, but the intensity exhibits significant sensitivity due to the change in aerosol contribution. It is also clearly seen from the analyses that higher heating in the middle troposphere within the cyclone center is in response to latent heat release as a consequence of greater graupel formation. Greater heating in the middle level is particularly noticeable for the clean aerosol regime which causes enhanced divergence in the upper level which, in turn, forces the lower level convergence. As a result, the cleaner aerosol perturbation is more unstable within the cyclone core and produces a more intense cyclone as compared to other two perturbations of aerosol. All these studies show the robustness of the concept of TC weakening by storm ingestion of high concentrations of CCN. The consistency of these model results gives us confidence in stating there is a high probability that ingestion of high CCN concentrations in a TC will lead to weakening of the storm but has little impact on storm direction. Moreover, as pollution is increasing over the Indian sub-continent, this study suggests pollution may be weakening TCs over the Bay of Bengal.

aerosols↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wind Fields in Category 1–3 Tropical Cyclones Are Not Fully Represented in Wind Turbine Design Standards

Abstract Offshore wind energy deployment in the U.S. is expected to increase in the years to come, with proposed wind farm sites located in regions with high risk for tropical cyclones. Yet, the wind turbine design criteria outlined by the International Electrotechnical Commission for extreme events may not account for wind field characteristics unique to tropical cyclones. To evaluate if current design standards capture the extreme conditions of these storms, we perform idealized large‐eddy simulations of three tropical cyclones (one Category 1, one Category 2, and one Category 3 storms) using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Wind conditions near the eyewall of Cat‐1, Cat‐2, and Cat‐3 storms can exceed current design standards for offshore wind turbines. Winds at 90 m can be faster than outlined in the design criteria for Class I and Class T turbines for 50‐year recurrence periods. Wind speed shear across the turbine rotor layer is also larger than assumed in design specifications. Moreover, vertical variations in wind direction across the turbine rotor layer are large for tropical cyclones of all intensity levels, suggesting design standards should include veer, which can amplify loads in wind turbines. The existence of hurricane wind field characteristics that are not represented in design standards does not imply that damage or failure will certainly occur. Engineering safety factors incorporated in the design of the turbine's blades and structural components may prevent damage from occurring.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multidecadal Fluctuations in the Observed ENSO‐Tropical Cyclone Teleconnection

Abstract El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a skillful predictor for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity in most TC basins. This study examines recent changes in the observed ENSO‐TC teleconnection strength, as measured by ENSO modulation of hurricane frequency. We find that the ENSO‐North Atlantic TC teleconnection fluctuated over time, with the strongest relationship occurring from the 1980s to the mid‐2000s. In the western and eastern North Pacific, the ENSO‐TC teleconnection has strengthened in recent decades. Periods with a strong ENSO‐TC teleconnection are associated with more favorable environmental conditions for TCs, with higher values of genesis potential indices. Positive phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation coincided with periods of strong ENSO‐TC teleconnections in the Atlantic and North Pacific basins. A weaker Atlantic ENSO‐TC relationship was associated with negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. This research reveals climate conditions that modulate ENSO's utility for seasonal TC prediction. Plain Language Summary El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a useful predictor for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity in many basins. Here we found that the strength of the ENSO‐TC teleconnection, represented as the correlation between ENSO and the number of hurricanes and accumulated cyclone energy, has changed in the historical record. The ENSO‐TC teleconnection in the North Atlantic fluctuated over time, with a weak relationship during the 1960s and 1970s and a strong relationship during the 1980s to mid‐2000s. Meanwhile, the ENSO‐TC teleconnection strengthened in the North Pacific in recent decades, with strong teleconnections after the 1980s in the western North Pacific and after the 2000s in the eastern North Pacific. Periods of strong ENSO‐TC teleconnections are associated with more favorable environmental conditions for TCs, including higher values of genesis potential indices and higher mid‐tropospheric humidity, as well as positive phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Additionally, the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation leads to strong/weak ENSO‐TC teleconnections in the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic, respectively. Furthermore, a negative North Atlantic Oscillation is associated with a weak ENSO‐North Atlantic TC teleconnection. This research highlights variations in ENSO's effectiveness for seasonal TC prediction. Key Points The observed impact of ENSO on tropical cyclone (TC) activity exhibits multidecadal fluctuations The ENSO‐TC teleconnection was strong in the Atlantic from the 1980s to mid‐2000s and strengthened over the North Pacific in recent decades The ENSO‐TC teleconnection is stronger in the Atlantic and North Pacific basins during a positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

ENSO↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tropical Cyclone Super Resolution using conditional diffusion denoising probabilistic model from mesoscale simulation to LES

Accurate modeling of tropical cyclone wind fields is essential for the design, risk assessment, and operational planning of offshore energy infrastructure. While mesoscale simulations are widely used thanks to their computational efficiency, they lack the necessary resolution to capture key features such as wind shear and veer profiles as well as the distribution turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). High-fidelity large-eddy simulation (LES) models on the other hand, can resolve turbulent structures and provide a more accurate representation of the complex wind field, albeit at a higher computational cost. To address this modeling gap, we introduce a two-part generative framework to enhance the resolution and physics-capturing ability of mesoscale simulations. First, a reduced-order model based on Karhunen–Loève (KL) decomposition is used to extract dominant spatial modes from one-dimensional mean wind profiles. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) is trained to map mesoscale mode weights to their LES counterparts, enabling accurate reconstruction of vertical velocity profiles. Second, a conditional Diffusion Denoising Probabilistic Model (DDPM) is developed to super-resolve coarse and low-fidelity mesoscale velocity fields, recovering fine-scale turbulence structures and stress distributions. The framework is evaluated across different tropical cyclone intensity categories defined by the Saffir–Simpson scale and demonstrates strong performance in both interpolation and extrapolation tasks. The generated fields accurately reproduce spatial coherence, stress distributions, and spectral energy characteristics observed in LES data. By bridging the fidelity gap between mesoscale and LES outputs, this approach offers a scalable, data-driven solution for enhancing the representation of tropical cyclone wind fields, enabling more robust offshore energy infrastructure systems design in tropical-cyclone-prone areas.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

TROPHY: A Topologically Robust Physics-Informed Tracking Framework for Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive weather systems. Realistically and efficiently detecting and tracking TCs are critical for assessing their impacts and risks. In particular, the eye is a signature feature of a mature TC. Therefore, knowing the eyes’ locations and movements is crucial for both operational weather forecasts and climate risk assessments. Recently, a multilevel robustness framework has been introduced to study the critical points of time-varying vector fields. The framework quantifies the robustness (i.e., structural stability) of critical points across varying neighborhoods. By relating the multilevel robustness with critical point tracking, the framework has demonstrated its potential in cyclone tracking. An advantage is that it identifies cyclonic features using only 2D wind vector fields, which is encouraging as most tracking algorithms require multiple dynamic and thermodynamic variables at different altitudes. A disadvantage is that the framework does not scale well computationally for datasets containing a large number of cyclones. Herein this paper introduces a topologically robust physics-informed tracking framework (TROPHY) for TC tracking. The main idea is to integrate physical knowledge of TC to drastically improve the computational efficiency of multilevel robustness framework for large-scale climate datasets. First, during preprocessing, we propose a physics-informed feature selection strategy to filter 90% of critical points that are short-lived and have low stability, thus preserving good candidates for TC tracking. Second, during in-processing, we impose constraints during the multilevel robustness computation to focus only on physics-informed neighborhoods of TCs. We apply TROPHY to 30 years of 2D wind fields from reanalysis data in ERA5 and generate a number of TC tracks. In comparison with the observed tracks, we demonstrate that TROPHY can capture TC characteristics (e.g., frequency, intensity, duration, latitudes with maximum intensity, and genesis) that are comparable to and sometimes even better than a well-validated TC tracking algorithm that requires multiple dynamic and thermodynamic scalar fields.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2011

The Response of Tropical Cyclone Statistics to an Increase in CO 2 with Fixed Sea Surface Temperatures

The effects on tropical cyclone statistics of doubling CO 2 , with fixed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), are compared to the effects of a 2-K increase in SST, with fixed CO 2 , using a 50-km resolution global atmospheric model. Confirming earlier results of Yoshimura and Sugi, a significant fraction of the reduction in globally averaged tropical storm frequency seen in simulations in which both SST and CO 2 are increased can be thought of as the effect of the CO 2 increase with fixed SSTs. Globally, the model produces a decrease in tropical cyclone frequency of about 10% due to doubling of CO 2 and an additional 10% for a 2-K increase in SST, resulting in roughly a 20% reduction when both effects are present. The relative contribution of the CO 2 effect to the total reduction is larger in the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere. The average intensity of storms increases in the model with increasing SST, but intensity remains roughly unchanged, or decreases slightly, with the increase in CO 2 alone. As a result, when considering the frequency of more intense cyclones, the intensity increase tends to compensate for the reduced total cyclone numbers for the SST increase in isolation, but not for the CO 2 increase in isolation. Changes in genesis in these experiments roughly follow changes in mean vertical motion, reflecting changes in convective mass fluxes. Discussion of one possible perspective on how changes in the convective mass flux might alter genesis rates is provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Evaluating decadal predictions of northern hemispheric cyclone frequencies

Mid-latitudinal cyclones are a key factor for understanding regional anomalies in primary meteorological parameters such as temperature or precipitation. Extreme cyclones can produce notable impacts on human society and economy, for example, by causing enormous economic losses through wind damage. Based on 41 annually initialised (1961–2001) hindcast ensembles, this study evaluates the ability of a single-model decadal forecast system (MPI-ESM-LR) to provide skilful probabilistic three-category forecasts (enhanced, normal or decreased) of winter (ONDJFM) extra-tropical cyclone frequency over the Northern Hemisphere with lead times from 1 yr up to a decade. It is shown that these predictions exhibit some significant skill, mainly for lead times of 2–5 yr, especially over the North Atlantic and Pacific. Skill for intense cyclones is generally higher than for all detected systems. A comparison of decadal hindcasts from two different initialisation techniques indicates that initialising from reanalysis fields yields slightly better results for the first forecast winter (month 10–15), while initialisation based on an assimilation experiment provides better skill for lead times between 2 and 5 yr. The reasons and mechanisms behind this predictive skill are subject to future work. Preliminary analyses suggest a strong relationship of the model's skill over the North Atlantic with the ability to predict upper ocean temperatures modulating lower troposphere baroclinicity for the respective area and time scales.

MiKlip↗
NASA NTRS2016

Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

Human influence on climate↗
NASA NTRS2016

Aerosol Optical Depth Distribution in Extratropical Cyclones over the Northern Hemisphere Oceans

Using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and an extratropical cyclone database,the climatological distribution of aerosol optical depth (AOD) in extratropical cyclones is explored based solely on observations. Cyclone-centered composites of aerosol optical depth are constructed for the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude ocean regions, and their seasonal variations are examined. These composites are found to be qualitatively stable when the impact of clouds and surface insolation or brightness is tested. The larger AODs occur in spring and summer and are preferentially found in the warm frontal and in the post-cold frontal regions in all seasons. The fine mode aerosols dominate the cold sector AODs, but the coarse mode aerosols display large AODs in the warm sector. These differences between the aerosol modes are related to the varying source regions of the aerosols and could potentially have different impacts on cloud and precipitation within the cyclones.

MODIS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Objective tropical cyclone extratropical transition detection in high-resolution reanalysis and climate model data

This paper describes an objective technique for detecting the extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in high-resolution gridded climate data. The algorithm is based on previous observational studies using phase spaces to define the symmetry and vertical thermal structure of cyclones. Storm tracking is automated, allowing for direct analysis of climate data. Tracker performance in the North Atlantic is assessed using 23 years of data from the variable-resolution Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) at two different resolutions (DX 55 km and 28 km), the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, DX 38 km), and the ERA-Interim Reanalysis (ERA-I, DX 80 km). The mean spatiotemporal climatologies and seasonal cycles of objectively detected ET in the observationally constrained CFSR and ERA-I are well matched to previous observational studies, demonstrating the capability of the scheme to adequately find events. High resolution CAM reproduces TC and ET statistics that are in general agreement with reanalyses. One notable model bias, however, is significantly longer time between ET onset and ET completion in CAM, particularly for TCs that lose symmetry prior to developing a cold-core structure and becoming extratropical cyclones, demonstrating the capability of this method to expose model biases in simulated cyclones beyond the tropical phase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Reactive jet and cyclonic attrition analysis of ilmenite in chemical looping combustion systems

In chemical looping combustion (CLC), the chosen oxygen carrier’s (OC) reactivity maintenance and attrition propensity play key roles in determining its lifetime in such systems. Jet and cyclonic attrition are two main mechanisms of attrition in CLC systems, which typically use fluidized beds and cyclones. In contrast to standardized tests, that assess attrition characteristics under ambient and non-reacting conditions, a realistic evaluation must include the behavior under relevant high temperatures and cyclic oxidation-reduction. In this study, separate jet and cyclonic attrition test units were constructed to investigate the effects of temperature, fuel gas concentration and velocity on the performance of ilmenite, a natural ore-based OC in CLC. Testing showed that thermal and chemical effects were crucial to accurately determine the performance of ilmenite. For experiments conducted between 820°C and 970°C, the intermediate temperature of 895°C provided the best balance between high reactivity and material durability. Additionally, fuel gas concentration affected particle morphology evolution. Iron migration to the surface of the ilmenite particle was enhanced at higher fuel gas concentrations and resulted in reduced attrition rate, presumably due to sintering of the more highly reduced enriched iron phase on the particle surface. The laboratory jet and cyclonic attrition evaluation test units tested in this study can be used to investigate multiple parameters relevant for OC performance, including the degree of reduction, oxygen carrying capacity, attrition resistance, agglomeration, and optimum material operability conditions, as well as to extrapolate test data to determine OC replacement costs in a commercial CLC system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling and observations of North Atlantic cyclones: Implications for U.S. Offshore wind energy

To meet the Biden-Harris administration's goal of deploying 30 GW of offshore wind power by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050, expansion of wind energy into U.S. territorial waters prone to tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) is essential. This requires a deeper understanding of cyclone-related risks and the development of robust, resilient offshore wind energy systems. Here, this paper provides a comprehensive review of state-of-the-science measurement and modeling capabilities for studying TCs and ETCs, and their impacts across various spatial and temporal scales. We explore measurement capabilities for environments influenced by TCs and ETCs, including near-surface and vertical profiles of critical variables that characterize these cyclones. The capabilities and limitations of Earth system and mesoscale models are assessed for their effectiveness in capturing atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions that influence TC/ETC-induced risks under a changing climate. Additionally, we discuss microscale modeling capabilities designed to bridge scale gaps from the weather scale (a few kilometers) to the turbine scale (dozens to a few meters). We also review machine learning (ML)-based, data-driven models for simulating TC/ETC events at both weather and wind turbine scales. Special attention is given to extreme metocean conditions like extreme wind gusts, rapid wind direction changes, and high waves, which pose threats to offshore wind energy infrastructure. Finally, the paper outlines the research challenges and future directions needed to enhance the resilience and design of next-generation offshore wind turbines against extreme weather conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2011

UBIQUITOUS ROTATING NETWORK MAGNETIC FIELDS AND EXTREME-ULTRAVIOLET CYCLONES IN THE QUIET SUN

We present Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) observations of EUV cyclones in the quiet Sun. These cyclones are rooted in the rotating network magnetic fields (RNFs). Such cyclones can last several to more than 10 hr and, at the later phase, they are found to be associated with EUV brightenings (microflares) and even EUV waves. SDO Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) observations show a ubiquitous presence of RNFs. Using HMI line-of-sight magnetograms on 2010 July 8, we find 388 RNFs in an area of 800 x 980 arcsec{sup 2} near the disk center where no active region is present. The sense of rotation shows a weak hemisphere preference. The unsigned magnetic flux of the RNFs is about 4.0 x 10{sup 21} Mx, or 78% of the total network flux. These observational phenomena at small scale reported in this Letter are consistent with those at large scale in active regions. The ubiquitous RNFs and EUV cyclones over the quiet Sun may suggest an effective way to heat the corona.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimization of a Cyclone Using Multiphase Flow Computational Fluid Dynamics

The U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory's (NETL) 50 kW th chemical looping reactor (CLR) has an underperforming cyclone, which was designed using empirical correlations. To improve the performance of this cyclone using computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based modeling simulations, four critical design parameters including the vortex tube radius and length, barrel radius, and the inlet width and height were optimized. Here, NETL's open source multiphase flow with interphase exchange (MFiX) CFD code has been used to model a series of cyclones by systematically varying the geometric design parameters. To perform the optimization process, the surrogate modeling and sensitivity analysis followed by the optimization capability in nodeworks was used. The basic methodology for the process is to employ a statistical design of experiments (DOE) method to generate sampling simulations that fill the design space. Corresponding CFD models are then created, executed, and postprocessed. A response surface is created to characterize the relationship between input parameters and the quantities of interest (QoI). Finally, the CFD-surrogate is used by an optimization method to find the optimal design condition based on the objective and constraints prescribed. The resulting optimal cyclone has a larger diameter and longer vortex tube, a larger diameter barrel, and a taller and narrower solids inlet. The improved design has a predicted pressure drop 11 times lower than the original design while reducing the mass loss by a factor of 2.3.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dependence of tropical cyclone seeds and climate sensitivity on tropical cloud response

Projections of future tropical cyclone frequency are uncertain, ranging from a slight increase to a considerable decrease according to climate models. Estimation of how much the Earth’s surface temperature warms in response to greenhouse gas increase, quantified by effective climate sensitivity, is also uncertain. These two uncertainties have historically been studied independently as they concern different scales: One quantifies the extreme weather and the other the mean climate. Here, we show that these two uncertainties are not independent and are both influenced by the response of tropical clouds to warming. Across climate models, we show an anticorrelation between shortwave cloud radiative feedback and changes in the frequency of seed vortices, a prevalent type of tropical cyclone precursors. We further show an anticorrelation between effective climate sensitivity and tropical cyclone frequency changes, suggesting that global tropical cyclone frequency tends to decrease more substantially in models with larger temperature increase.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗