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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

On the Reduced Geoeffectiveness of Solar Cycle 24: A Moderate Storm Perspective

The moderate and intense geomagnetic storms are identified for the first 77 months of solar cycles 23 and 24. The solar sources responsible for the moderate geomagnetic storms are indentified during the same epoch for both the cycles. Solar cycle 24 has shown nearly 80% reduction in the occurrence of intense storms whereas it is only 40% in case of moderate storms when compared to previous cycle. The solar and interplanetary characteristics of the moderate storms driven by coronal mass ejection (CME) are compared for solar cycles 23 and 24 in order to see reduction in geoeffectiveness has anything to do with the occurrence of moderate storm. Though there is reduction in the occurrence of moderate storms, the Dst distribution does not show much difference. Similarly, the solar source parameters like CME speed, mass, and width did not show any significant variation in the average values as well as the distribution. The correlation between VBz and Dst is determined, and it is found to be moderate with value of 0.68 for cycle 23 and 0.61 for cycle 24. The magnetospheric energy flux parameter epsilon (epsilon) is estimated during the main phase of all moderate storms during solar cycles 23 and 24. The energy transfer decreased in solar cycle 24 when compared to cycle 23. These results are significantly different when all geomagnetic storms are taken into consideration for both the solar cycles.

Selvakumaran, R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Solar Cycle Variation on Space Weather

We report on the solar cycle variation of solar eruptions and their space weather consequences during solar cycles 23-25. While the solar activity cycle is primarily expressed in terms of the Sunspot number (SSN), coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provide a different perspective on the solar cycle owing to their origin in sunspot regions as well as other non-spot magnetic regions such as quiescent filament regions. Weak solar activity observed in solar cycle 24 has been found to result in a weak heliospheric state, which backreacted on CME properties. The cycle resulted in mild space weather in that the number of large solar energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms decreased significantly. The occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms and high-energy SEP events was drastically reduced, much more than the reduction in the solar activity. The current status of solar cycle 25 indicates that it will be similar to solar cycle 24 or slightly stronger, which means a mild space weather in this cycle as well. We illustrate this using the data obtained during the rise phase of solar cycle 25 in comparison with the corresponding phases in cycles 23 and 24.

Nat Gopalswamy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electrochemical Cycling of Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carriers as a Sustainable Approach for Hydrogen Storage and Transportation

Hydrogen (H 2 ), as a high-energy-density molecule, offers a clean solution to carry energy. However, the high diffusivity and low volumetric density of H 2 pose a challenge for long-term storage and transportation. Liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHCs) have been suggested as a strategic way to store and transport hydrogen in stable molecules. More so, electrochemical LOHC cycling renders an opportunity to utilize renewable energy for hydrogen storage and transportation toward the goal of eliminating carbon emissions. In this Perspective, examples of electrochemical reactions of organic molecules and their suitability for LOHC couples are examined. A comparative carbon footprint assessment of electrochemical LOHC cycling processes against thermochemical and hybrid LOHC cycling processes was performed. The electrochemical LOHC cycling process had the lowest relative carbon footprint only when highly concentrated LOHCs were used as the feed or when purification of the LOHC product was not required. The carbon footprint in electrochemical cycling of diluted LOHC was primarily contributed to by the LOHC distillation separation process. A sensitivity analysis showed the carbon footprint LOHC concentration dependence during the electrochemical cycling process. Moreover, the electrolyte composition significantly affects the carbon footprint during electrochemical LOHC cycling. Energy utilization, water usage, and toxicity for electrochemical LOHC cycling are discussed to provide an overview for better economic and environmental practices. There are significant opportunities in the electrochemical cycling of LOHCs if appropriate conditions such as high concentrations of reactant, reversible redox cycling ability, high Faradaic efficiencies, and catalyst stabilities are achieved.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2011

Characterizing Observed Limit Cycles in the Cassini Main Engine Guidance Control System

The Cassini spacecraft dynamics-related telemetry during long Main Engine (ME) burns has indicated the presence of stable limit cycles between 0.03-0.04 Hz frequencies. These stable limit cycles cause the spacecraft to possess non-zero oscillating rates for extended periods of time. This indicates that the linear ME guidance control system does not model the complete dynamics of the spacecraft. In this study, we propose that the observed limit cycles in the spacecraft dynamics telemetry appear from a stable interaction between the unmodeled nonlinear elements in the ME guidance control system. Many nonlinearities in the control system emerge from translating the linear engine gimbal actuator (EGA) motion into a spacecraft rotation. One such nonlinearity comes from the gear backlash in the EGA system, which is the focus of this paper. The limit cycle characteristics and behavior can be predicted by modeling this gear backlash nonlinear element via a describing function and studying the interaction of this describing function with the overall dynamics of the spacecraft. The linear ME guidance controller and gear backlash nonlinearity are modeled analytically. The frequency, magnitude, and nature of the limit cycle are obtained from the frequency response of the ME guidance controller and nonlinear element. In addition, the ME guidance controller along with the nonlinearity is simulated. The simulation response contains a limit cycle with similar characterstics as predicted analytically: 0.03-0.04 Hz frequency and stable, sustained oscillations. The analytical and simulated limit cycle responses are compared to the flight telemetry for long burns such as the Saturn Orbit Insertion and Main Engine Orbit Trim Maneuvers. The analytical and simulated limit cycle characteristics compare well with the actual observed limit cycles in the flight telemetry. Both have frequencies between 0.03-0.04 Hz and stable oscillations. This work shows that the stable limit cycles occur due to the interaction between the unmodeled nonlinear elements and linear ME guidance controller.

stable limit cycle↗
DOE OSTI2025

Response of Subsurface Nitrogen-Cycling Microbial Communities to Environmental Fluctuations (Final Technical Report)

Riparian floodplains are dynamic ecosystems linking terrestrial and riverine systems. These floodplains experience hydrological shifts such as changes in water table height, flooding, and drought and can be ‘hotspots’ of biogeochemical cycling due to shifting sediment moisture (and saturation) and subsurface exchanges of water, nutrients, and other compounds across different sediment layers. Subsurface microbial communities are the primary drivers of biogeochemical processes in floodplains, and thus their structure and function can directly influence both surface and groundwater quality. The microbial nitrogen (N) cycle is particularly important in floodplains as it affects nutrient availability and removal. Two functional guilds of chemoautotrophic (i.e. CO2-fixing) microorganisms are responsible for the first oxidative step of the N cycle, nitrification: ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) and bacteria (AOB) catalyze the oxidation of ammonia to nitrite, while nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB) oxidize nitrite to nitrate. Despite the critical role nitrification plays in N-cycling in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, our understanding of the diversity, ecophysiology, and activity of nitrifying organisms in subsurface floodplain soils/sediments is extremely limited. To help address this critical knowledge gap, the overarching goal of this project was to determine how shifts in key environmental parameters and gradients impact microbial N-cycling communities/processes, with particular emphasis on nitrification, within hydrologically-variable floodplain sediments in the Wind River Basin near Riverton, Wyoming. The three specific objectives of this project were to: (1) to associate in situ environmental drivers of N cycling with distinct functional guilds; (2) determine the guild response to variation in key ecosystem drivers; and (3) develop a dynamic ecosystem model of the microbial N cycle with the Riverton subsurface using community genomic and biogeochemical data collected in the first two objectives. Over the course of this project, we employed both 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing and genome-resolved metagenomics to examine the phylogenetic diversity and metabolic potential of subsurface nitrifier communities within 68 samples collected across multiple sites, depths, and time points within the Riverton floodplain, allowing for both spatial and temporal investigations at different scales. This project benefitted tremendously from recent advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies coupled with dramatic improvements in the computational tools and algorithms available for analyzing such large, complex genomic datasets. By pairing these cutting-edge genomic approaches with depth-resolved sampling and detailed geochemical analyses of the Riverton floodplain, we have gained novel insights into the structure and function of subsurface nitrifier communities in relation to both hydrology and biogeochemistry. This project resulted in the most detailed and comprehensive characterization of N-cycling floodplain microbial communities to date and will hopefully inspire and pave the way for future studies using similar approaches in other floodplains. Indeed, such information is critical for understanding subsurface biogeochemical cycling and how elemental stores are altered from perturbations initiated by the water cycle within floodplains. Finally, because of the terrestrial-aquatic nature of the Riverton floodplain, results from this project are also of relevance to disciplines such as soil science, estuarine science, limnology & oceanography, biogeochemistry, geobiology, environmental engineering, as well as genomics and data science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Coal-Biomass Co-Firing Power Plants with Carbon Capture and Storage

The United States has set a target to achieve the net-zero economy by 2050. Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Sequestration (BECCS) is one of the promising negative-emission routes in the mitigation portfolio to help meet this goal. Coal-biomass co-firing with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a key BECCS technology to realize the carbon mitigation at fossil-fuel power plants. The mitigation potential of co-firing option is affected by numerous critical factors, such as biomass properties, co-firing level, and carbon capture rate. The objectives of the study are to characterize and estimate the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and performance of coal-biomass co-firing power plants with CCS, determine the breakeven co-firing level at power plants necessary to achieve net-zero life cycle emissions, and quantify the variabilities and uncertainties in life cycle emissions. The scope of the life cycle assessment includes the fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. A fuel-based life cycle module is developed and embedded in the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM), a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. This study then applies the enhanced IECM to conduct the process-based life cycle assessment for an array of biomass co-firing scenarios. Deterministic analysis indicates that reaching net-zero life cycle emissions in a biomass co-firing plant without CCS deployment is challenging. Combining biomass co-firing and CCS deployment can significantly lower the overall life cycle emissions of power plants. Net-zero life cycle emissions can be achieved with a 20 wt.% co-firing level and 90% CCS when the Powder River Basin coal is co-fired with energy crops or forestry residues. However, the breakeven co-firing level for net-zero emissions depend on the selected fuel properties. Fuel supply and plant operation are the critical stages influencing the life cycle emissions of power plants with 90% CCS. Deployment of deep CCS beyond 90% CO2 capture can remarkably reduce operational emissions and the breakeven co-firing level. With 99% CCS, the breakeven co-firing rate can be reduced to 12% on average. These findings highlight the trade-offs between technical performance and environmental impact of biomass co-firing at coal-fired power plants and emphasize the role of deep CCS in achieving a net-zero emissions future.

Wu, Wanying↗
NASA NTRS1986

The effect of ultradian and orbital cycles on plant growth

In a series of experiments using sugar beets, researchers investigated the effects of varying cycles lengths on growth (0.37 hr to 48 hr). Each cycle was equally divided into a light and dark period so that each treatment regardless of cycle length received the same amount of light over the 17 weeks of the experiment. Two growth parameters were used to evaluate the effects of cycle length, total fresh weight and sucrose content of the storage root. Both parameters showed very similar responses in that under long cycles (12 hr or greater) growth was normal, whereas plants growing under shorter cycle periods were progressively inhibited. Minimum growth occurred at a cycle period of 0.75 hr. The yield at the 0.75 hr cycle, where was at a minimum, for total fresh weight was only 51 percent compared to the 24 hr cycle. The yield of sucrose was even more reduced at 41 percent of the 24 hr cycle.

Berry, W.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Bimodality of the solar cycle

An alternative characterization of the solar cycle is offered that is consistent with the sunspot data for cycles 1-20 (1775-1976) but suggests a different physical interpretation. For sunspot cycles 1-20, all cycles occurred in strings (two to six cycles in length) during which the period remained longer or shorter than the sample mean period. These strings have coincided with long-term trends of growth or decay in the amplitude of the cycle. In six out of six cases, the period of the cycle has switched from long to short (or the reverse) in coincidence with the turning points in the long-term trend. This suggests that the solar dynamo has two modes with different mean periods. In the short-period mode, the amplitude of the cycle grows; in the long-period mode, the amplitude decays. The transition between modes has occurred at irregular intervals. A persistence of the long-period mode would eventually produce a grand minimum such as the Maunder minimum; a persistence of the short-period mode would produce a grand maximum. Unless the present interval between transitions turns out to be shorter than any previously observed interval, the present cycle (cycle 21) is part of a long-period, decaying trend and will be of longer-than-average duration (more than 133 months).

Rabin, D.↗
NASA NTRS1987

KOH concentration effect on cycle life of nickel-hydrogen cells

A cycle life test of Ni/H2 cells containing electrolytes of various KOH concentrations and a sintered type nickel electrode was carried out at 23 C using a 45 min accelerated low Earth orbit (LEO) cycle regime at 80 percent depth of discharge. One of three cells containing 26 percent KOH has achieved over 28,000 cycles, and the other two 19,000 cycles, without a sign of failure. Two other cells containing 31 percent KOH electrolyte, which is the concentration presently used in aerospace cells, failed after 2,979 and 3,620 cycles. This result indicates that the cycle life of the present type of Ni/H2 cells may be extended by a factor of 5 to 10 simply by lowering the KOH concentration. Long cycle life of a Ni/H2 battery at high depth-of-discharge operation is desired, particularly for an LEO spacecraft application. Typically, battery life of about 30,000 cycles is required for a five year mission in an LEO. Such a cycle life with presently available cells can be assured only at a very low depth-of-discharge operation. Results of testing already show that the cycle life of an Ni/H2 cell is tremendously improved by simply using an electrolyte of low KOH concentration.

Lim, Hong S.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Effect of KOH concentration on LEO cycle life of IPV nickel-hydrogen flight battery cells

A breakthrough in low earth orbit (LEO) cycle life of individual pressure vessel (IPV) nickel hydrogen battery cells was reported. The cycle life of boiler plate cells containing 26 percent potassium hydroxide (KOH) electrolyte was about 40,000 LEO cycles compared to 3500 cycles for cells containing 31 percent KOH. The effect of KOH concentration on cycle life was studied. The cycle regime was a stressful accelerated LEO, which consisted of a 27.5 min charge followed by a 17.5 min charge (2 x normal rate). The depth of discharge (DOD) was 80 percent. The cell temperature was maintained at 23 C. The next step is to validate these results using flight hardware and a real time LEO test. NASA Lewis has a contract with the Naval Weapons Support Center (NWSC), Crane, Indiana, to validate the boiler plate test results. Six 48 A-hr Hughes recirculation design IPV nickel-hydrogen flight battery cells are being evaluated. Three of the cells contain 26 percent KOH (test cells) and three contain 31 percent KOH (control cells). They are undergoing real time LEO cycle life testing. The cycle regime is a 90-min LEO orbit consisting of a 54-min charge followed by a 36-min discharge. The depth-of-discharge is 80 percent. The cell temperature is maintained at 10 C. The cells were cycled for over 8000 cycles in the continuing test. There were no failures for the cells containing 26 percent KOH. There was two failures, however, for the cells containing 31 percent KOH.

Smithrick, John J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Effect of KOH concentration on LEO cycle life of IPV nickel-hydrogen flight battery cells

A breakthrough in the low-earth-orbit (LEO) cycle life of individual pressure vessel (IPV) nickel hydrogen battery cells is reported. The cycle life of boiler plate cells containing 26 percent potassium hydroxide (KOH) electrolyte was about 40,000 LEO cycles compared to 3500 cycles for cells containing 31 percent KOH. The effect of KOH concentration on cycle life was studied. The cycle regime was a stressful accelerated LEO, which consisted of a 27.5 min charge followed by a 17.5 min charge (2 x normal rate). The depth of discharge (DOD) was 80 percent. The cell temperature was maintained at 23 C. The next step is to validate these results using flight hardware and real time LEO test. NASA Lewis has a contract with the Naval Weapons Support Center (NWSC), Crane, Indiana to validate the boiler plate test results. Six 48 A-hr Hughes recirculation design IPV nickel-hydrogen flight battery cells are being evaluated. Three of the cells contain 26 percent KOH (test cells) and three contain 31 percent KOH (control cells). They are undergoing real time LEO cycle life testing. The cycle regime is a 90-min LEO orbit consisting of a 54-min charge followed by a 36-min discharge. The depth-of-discharge is 80 percent. The cell temperature is maintained at 10 C. The cells were cycled for over 8000 cycles in the continuing test. There were no failures for the cells containing 26 percent KOH. There were two failures, however, for the cells containing 31 percent KOH.

Smithrick, John J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Dual-cycle ergometry as an exercise modality during prebreathe with 100 percent oxygen

In an effort to reduce prebreathe time requirements prior to extravehicular activities and high-altitude flights, a combined arm and leg exercise task proposes to enhance denitrogenation by incorporation of both upper and lower body musculature at a moderately high work intensity during prebreathe with 100% oxygen. Preliminary findings indicated peak oxygen consumption (VO2peak) levels attained on the dual-cycle ergometer do not differ significantly from those levels attained on the treadmill. Eight male subjects were exercised to VO2peak using leg-only cycle ergometry and dual-cycle ergometry on separate days. Preliminary data during dual-cycle ergometry showed arm work equaling 30% of the leg workrate at each stage of the incremental test resulted in arm fatigue in several subjects and a reduced VO2peak compared to dual-cycle ergometry with arm work at 20%. Thus, the 20% workrate was used during the dual-cycle VO2peak trial. On a third experimental day, subjects performed a 10 minute exercise test at a workrate required to elicit 75% of VO2peak for each subject on the dual-cycle ergometer. Blood lactate response to the exercise was monitored as an objective measure of fatigue. Peak VO2 levels attained on the leg-only and the dual-cycle ergometry tasks were not significantly different. Blood lactate levels were significantly elevated following the dual-cycle ergometry at 75% VO2peak. However, lactate levels show the expected rate of decline during recovery and, as demonstrated in the literature, should return to baseline levels within 30 minutes following exercise cessation. Thus, dual-cycle ergometry at 75% VO2peak appears to be a valid exercise for use during prebreathe and should not contribute to fatigue during subsequent EVA's.

Heaps, Cristine L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The shape of the sunspot cycle

The temporal behavior of a sunspot cycle, as described by the International sunspot numbers, can be represented by a simple function with four parameters: starting time, amplitude, rise time, and asymmetry. Of these, the parameter that governs the asymmetry between the rise to maximum and the fall to minimum is found to vary little from cycle to cycle and can be fixed at a single value for all cycles. A close relationship is found between rise time and amplitude which allows for a representation of each cycle by a function containing only two parameters: the starting time and the amplitude. These parameters are determined for the previous 22 sunspot cycles and examined for any predictable behavior. A weak correlation is found between the amplitude accurate to within about 30% right at the start of the cycle. As the cycle progresses, the amplitude can be better determined to within 20% at 30 months and to within 10% at 42 months into the cycle, thereby providing a good prediction both for the timing and size of sunspot maximum and for the behavior of the remaining 7-12 years of the cycle.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Evaluation of Cycle Life and Characterization of YTP 45 Ah Li-Ion Battery for EMU

Li-ion batteries, with longer cycle life and higher energy density features, are now more and more attractive and applied in multiple fields. The YTP 45 Ah Li-ion battery has been evaluated here and may be employed in EMU in the future. Evaluations were on: (1) Cycle life tests - 500 cycles total (completed 40 cycles in simulated shuttle use mode and 460 cycles in an accelerated use mode, and recorded differential voltage of individual cell in battery); (2) Characterization test - discharge capacity measurement in environment temperature of -10, 25, 50 C before and after 500 cycles; and (3) Thermal testing - charge and discharge at 50 C and -10 C before and after 500 cycles. The battery showed less than a 9% drop of initial discharge capacity and energy within 500 cycles with 475 cycles 59% DOD plus 25 cycles 100% DOD. The EOD voltage ranged from 16.0 to 18.0 V, which fits the requirement for operating the EMU.

Deng, Yi↗
NASA NTRS2002

Using Kalman Filter Chemical Data Assimilation to Study Ozone Catalytic Loss Cycles in January 1992

This paper presents for the first time a global study of the ozone catalytic destruction cycles operating in the stratosphere using a stratospheric analyses for January 1992. The chemical analyses were produced using a Kalman filter data assimilation system. Because a major component of the variability of trace gases is due to the atmospheric motions the analyses have been cast in a flow-tracking coordinate system that moves with the large scale flow pattern. Particular attention is paid to the kinetic aspects of these cycles such as the rate limiting step and chain length. Although it is an important kinetic parameter, the chain length of the various cycles is seldom considered when the various catalytic cycles are discussed. This survey highlights that in the low stratosphere the cycles involving HO2 and halogens (notably bromine) are particularly important. In approximate order of effectiveness the most important ozone loss cycles in the polar lower stratosphere are the BrO/ClO, HO2/BrO, and OH/HO2 cycles. The ClO/ClO cycle clearly delineates the regions of chlorine activation. The chain length of the HO2/ClO, OH/HO2, Br/BrO, and ClO/NO2, clearly delineate the vortex edge region. The chain length of the BrO/NO2 and Cl/NO2 cycles highlight the regions of chemical processing outside the vortex where streamers of chemically processed air are stripped-off and transported away from the vortex. This is also true in the very low stratosphere for the Cl/ClO and BrO/ClO cycles.

Lary, David J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Damage Assessment of Stress-Thermal Cycled High Temperature

We report on the characterization of bismaleimide and polyimide carbon fiber composite, microcrack development under stress thermal cycling loading. Such cycle range from cryogenic temperatures associated with cryogenic fuel (LN, LOX) containment to high temperatures of 300 degrees associated with future hypervelocity aeropropulsion systems. Microcrack development thresholds as a function of temperature range of the thermal cycle, the number of cycles, and the applied stress level imposed on the composite are reported. We have conducted stress-thermal cycles on thin bismaleimide-woven carbon fiber foils for three temperature range cycles. The principle findings are that the full cycles from -196 degree celsius up to 250 degree celsius cause the most significant microcrack development. These observations indicate that the high temperature portion of the cycle under load causes fiber-matrix interface failure and subsequent exposure to higher stresses at the cryogenic, low temperature region results in composite matrix microcracking as a result of the additional stresses associated with the fiber-matrix thermal expansion mismatch. Our initial studies for 12 ply PMR-II-50 polyimide/M6OJB carbon fabric [0f, 90f, 90f, 0f, 0f, 90f] composites will be presented. The stress-thermal cycle test procedure for these will be described. Moisture absorption characteristics between cycles will be used to monitor interconnected microcrack development. The applied stress level will be 75 percent of the composite cryogenic -196 degree celsius ultimate strength.

Ju, Jach-Yung↗
NASA NTRS2004

Damage Assessment of Stress-Thermal Cycled high temperature

We report on the characterization of bismaleimide and polyimide carbon fiber composite, microcrack development under stress thermal cycling loading. Such cycles range from cryogenic temperatures associated with cryogenic fuel (LN, LOX) containment to high temperatures of 300 degrees Celsius associated with future hypervelocity aeropropulsion systems. Microcrack development thresholds as a function of temperature range of the thermal cycle; the number of cycles; the applied stress level imposed on the composite are reported. We have conducted stress-thermal cycles on thin bismaleimide-woven carbon fiber foils for three temperature range cycles: 1. Ambient temperature - -196 degrees celsius. 2. Ambient temperature - 150 degrees Celsius; 200 degrees Celsius; 250 degrees Celsius. 3. -196 degrees Celsius - 250 degrees Celsius. The Principle findings are that the full cycles from -196 degrees Celsius to to 250 degrees Celsius cause the most significant microcrack of development. These observations indicate that the high temperature portion of the cycle under load causes fiber-matrix interface failure and subsequent exposure to higher stresses at the cryogenic, low temperature region results in composite matrix microcracking as a result of the additional stresses associate with the fiber-matrix thermal expansion mismatch. Our initial studies for 12 ply PMR-II-50 polyimide/M60JB carbon fabric [0f,90f,90f,0f,0f,90f]ls composites will be presented. The stress-thermal cycle test procedure for these will be described. Moisture absorption characteristics between cycles will be used to monitor interconnected microcrack development. The applied stress level will be 75% of the composite cryogenic (-196 degrees Celsius) ultimate strength.

Ju, Jae-Hyung↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun s hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun s cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modem observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Pesnell, W. Dean↗