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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1999

Adaptive Error Estimation in Linearized Ocean General Circulation Models

Data assimilation methods are routinely used in oceanography. The statistics of the model and measurement errors need to be specified a priori. This study addresses the problem of estimating model and measurement error statistics from observations. We start by testing innovation based methods of adaptive error estimation with low-dimensional models in the North Pacific (5-60 deg N, 132-252 deg E) to TOPEX/POSEIDON (TIP) sea level anomaly data, acoustic tomography data from the ATOC project, and the MIT General Circulation Model (GCM). A reduced state linear model that describes large scale internal (baroclinic) error dynamics is used. The methods are shown to be sensitive to the initial guess for the error statistics and the type of observations. A new off-line approach is developed, the covariance matching approach (CMA), where covariance matrices of model-data residuals are "matched" to their theoretical expectations using familiar least squares methods. This method uses observations directly instead of the innovations sequence and is shown to be related to the MT method and the method of Fu et al. (1993). Twin experiments using the same linearized MIT GCM suggest that altimetric data are ill-suited to the estimation of internal GCM errors, but that such estimates can in theory be obtained using acoustic data. The CMA is then applied to T/P sea level anomaly data and a linearization of a global GFDL GCM which uses two vertical modes. We show that the CMA method can be used with a global model and a global data set, and that the estimates of the error statistics are robust. We show that the fraction of the GCM-T/P residual variance explained by the model error is larger than that derived in Fukumori et al.(1999) with the method of Fu et al.(1993). Most of the model error is explained by the barotropic mode. However, we find that impact of the change in the error statistics on the data assimilation estimates is very small. This is explained by the large representation error, i.e. the dominance of the mesoscale eddies in the T/P signal, which are not part of the 21 by 1" GCM. Therefore, the impact of the observations on the assimilation is very small even after the adjustment of the error statistics. This work demonstrates that simult&neous estimation of the model and measurement error statistics for data assimilation with global ocean data sets and linearized GCMs is possible. However, the error covariance estimation problem is in general highly underdetermined, much more so than the state estimation problem. In other words there exist a very large number of statistical models that can be made consistent with the available data. Therefore, methods for obtaining quantitative error estimates, powerful though they may be, cannot replace physical insight. Used in the right context, as a tool for guiding the choice of a small number of model error parameters, covariance matching can be a useful addition to the repertory of tools available to oceanographers.

Chechelnitsky, Michael Y.↗
NASA NTRS1977

An improved lunar moment of inertia determination - A proposed strategy

A strategy for determining an improved lunar moment of inertia is proposed. An improved uncertainty in the lunar inhomogeneity parameter could reduce the core density error from 4.20 gr/cu cm to 0.1 gm/cu cm for the case of a lunar density model having a 300 km core radius. The current error of 0.0025 for the lunar inhomogeneity parameter is mostly due to the uncertainties in the C20 and C22 gravity harmonics. An optimum reduction strategy for obtaining an order of magnitude improvement in the gravity estimates is based on covariance analyses of Doppler data. The long-arc reduction method is shown to provide better results than the short-arc technique, and the use of an orbit with a 7000 km semimajor axis along with certain terms of up to degree and order eight is recommended.

Ananda, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS1994

An evaluation of the regional acid deposition model surface module for ozone uptake at three sites in the San Joaquin Valley of California

Plants and soils act as major sinks for the destruction of tropospheric ozone, especially during daylight hours when plant stomata open and are thought to provide the dominant pathway for the uptake of ozone. The present study, part of the California Ozone Deposition Experiment, compares predictions of the regional acid deposition model ozone surface conductance module with surface conductance data derived from eddy covariance measurements of ozone flux taken at a grape, a cotton, and a grassland site in the San Joaquin Valley of California during the summer of 1991. Results indicate that the model (which was developed to provide long-term large-area estimates for the eastern United States) significantly overpredicts the surface conductance at all times of the day for at least two important types of plant cover of the San Joaquin Valley and that it incorrectly partitions the ozone flux between transpiring and nontranspiring components of the surface at the third site. Consequently, the model either overpredicts or inaccurately represents the observed deposition velocities. Other results indicate that the presence of dew does not reduce the rate of ozone deposition, contradicting to model assumptions, and that model assumptions involving the dependency of stomata upon environmental temperature are unnecessary. The effects of measurement errors and biases, arising from the presence of the roughness sublayer and possible photochemical reactions, are also discussed. A simpler model for ozone surface deposition (at least for the San Joaquin Valley) is proposed and evaluated.

Massman, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Recent Climate Variability in Antarctica from Satellite-derived Temperature Data

Recent Antarctic climate variability on month-to-month to interannual time scales is assessed through joint analysis of surface temperatures from satellite thermal infrared observations (T(sub IR)) and passive microwave brightness temperatures (T(sub B)). Although Tw data are limited to clear-sky conditions and T(sub B) data are a product of the temperature and emissivity of the upper approx. 1m of snow, the two data sets share significant covariance. This covariance is largely explained by three empirical modes, which illustrate the spatial and temporal variability of Antarctic surface temperatures. T(sub B) variations are damped compared to TIR variations, as determined by the period of the temperature forcing and the microwave emission depth; however, microwave emissivity does not vary significantly in time. Comparison of the temperature modes with Southern Hemisphere (SH) 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies demonstrates that Antarctic temperature anomalies are predominantly controlled by the principal patterns of SH atmospheric circulation. The leading surface temperature mode strongly correlates with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in geopotential height. The second temperature mode reflects the combined influences of the zonal wavenumber-3 and Pacific South American (PSA) patterns in 500-hPa height on month-to-month timescales. ENSO variability projects onto this mode on interannual timescales, but is not by itself a good predictor of Antarctic temperature anomalies. The third temperature mode explains winter warming trends, which may be caused by blocking events, over a large region of the East Antarctic plateau. These results help to place recent climate changes in the context of Antarctica's background climate variability and will aid in the interpretation of ice core paleoclimate records.

Schneider, David P.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Orbit/attitude estimation with LANDSAT Landmark data

The use of LANDSAT landmark data for orbit/attitude and camera bias estimation was studied. The preliminary results of these investigations are presented. The Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) error analysis capability was used to perform error analysis studies. A number of questions were addressed including parameter observability and sensitivity, effects on the solve-for parameter errors of data span, density, and distribution an a priori covariance weighting. The use of the GTDS differential correction capability with acutal landmark data was examined. The rms line and element observation residuals were studied as a function of the solve-for parameter set, a priori covariance weighting, force model, attitude model and data characteristics. Sample results are presented. Finally, verfication and preliminary system evaluation of the LANDSAT NAVPAK system for sequential (extended Kalman Filter) estimation of orbit, and camera bias parameters is given.

Hall, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Auto covariance computer

A laser velocimeter covariance processor which calculates the auto covariance and cross covariance functions for a turbulent flow field based on Poisson sampled measurements in time from a laser velocimeter is described. The device will process a block of data that is up to 4096 data points in length and return a 512 point covariance function with 48-bit resolution along with a 512 point histogram of the interarrival times which is used to normalize the covariance function. The device is designed to interface and be controlled by a minicomputer from which the data is received and the results returned. A typical 4096 point computation takes approximately 1.5 seconds to receive the data, compute the covariance function, and return the results to the computer.

Hepner, T. E.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Comparison of Kalman filter estimates of zenith atmospheric path delays using the global positioning system and very long baseline interferometry

Kalman filter estimates of zenith nondispersive atmospheric path delays at Westford, Massachusetts, Fort Davis, Texas, and Mojave, California, were obtained from independent analyses of data collected during January and February 1988 using the GPS and VLBI. The apparent accuracy of the path delays is inferred by examining the estimates and covariances from both sets of data. The ability of the geodetic data to resolve zenith path delay fluctuations is determined by comparing further the GPS Kalman filter estimates with corresponding wet path delays derived from water vapor radiometric data available at Mojave over two 8-hour data spans within the comparison period. GPS and VLBI zenith path delay estimates agree well within one standard deviation formal uncertainties (from 10-20 mm for GPS and 3-15 mm for VLBI) in four out of the five possible comparisons, with maximum differences of 5 and 21 mm over 8- to 12-hour data spans.

Tralli, David M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Surface navigation on Mars with a Navigation Satellite

Radiometric navigation data from the Deep Space Network (DSN) stations on the earth to transponders and other surface elements such as rovers and landers on Mars, can determine their positions to only within a kilometer in inertial space. The positional error is mostly in the z-component of the surface element parallel to the Martian spin-axis. However, with Doppler and differenced-Doppler data from a Navigation Satellite in orbit around Mars to two or more of such transponders on the planetary surface, their positions can be determined to within 15 meters (or 20 meters for one-way Doppler beacons on Mars) in inertial space. In this case, the transponders (or other vehicles) on Mars need not even be capable of directly communicating to the earth. When the Navigation Satellite data is complemented by radiometric observations from the DSN stations also, directly to the surface elements on Mars, their positions can be determined to within 3 meters in inertial space. The relative positions of such surface elements on Mars (relative to one another) in Mars-fixed coordinates, however, can be determined to within 5 meters from simply range and Doppler data from the DSN stations to the surface elements. These results are obtained from covariance studies assuming X-band data noise levels and data-arcs not exceeding 10 days. They are significant in the planning and deployment of a Mars-based navigation network necessary to support real-time operations during critical phases of manned exploration of Mars.

Vijayaraghavan, A.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Future possibilities in objective analysis and data assimilation for atmospheric dynamics

The role that dynamics plays in estimating the state of the atmosphere from incomplete and noisy data is reviewed. Objective analysis represents an attempt at relying mostly on the data and minimizing the role of dynamics in the estimation. Data assimilation tries to balance properly the roles of dynamical and observational information. Sequential estimation is presented as the proper framework for understanding this balance, and the Kalman filter as the ideal, optimal procedure for data assimilation. The optimal filter computes forecast error covariances of a given atmospheric model exactly, and hence data assimilation should be closely connected with predictability studies. This connection is described, and consequences drawn for currently active areas of the atmospheric and related sciences, namely, mesoscale meteorology, long range forecasting, and upper ocean dynamics. Possibilities offered by judicious data assimilation in understanding barotropic adjustment, a phenomenon that appears to play a crucial role in atmospheric behavior on the scale of weeks to months, and hence in long range forecasting are addressed.

Ghil, M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Coupled Data Assimilation for Integrated Earth System Analysis and Prediction: Goals, Challenges, and Recommendations

The purpose of this report is to identify fundamental issues for coupled data assimilation (CDA), such as gaps in science and limitations in forecasting systems, in order to provide guidance to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on how to facilitate more rapid progress internationally. Coupled Earth system modeling provides the opportunity to extend skillful atmospheric forecasts beyond the traditional two-week barrier by extracting skill from low-frequency state components such as the land, ocean, and sea ice. More generally, coupled models are needed to support seamless prediction systems that span timescales from weather, subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), multiyear, and decadal. Therefore, initialization methods are needed for coupled Earth system models, either applied to each individual component (called Weakly Coupled Data Assimilation - WCDA) or applied the coupled Earth system model as a whole (called Strongly Coupled Data Assimilation - SCDA). Using CDA, in which model forecasts and potentially the state estimation are performed jointly, each model domain benefits from observations in other domains either directly using error covariance information known at the time of the analysis (SCDA), or indirectly through flux interactions at the model boundaries (WCDA). Because the non-atmospheric domains are generally under-observed compared to the atmosphere, CDA provides a significant advantage over single-domain analyses. Next, we provide a synopsis of goals, challenges, and recommendations to advance CDA: Goals: (a) Extend predictive skill beyond the current capability of NWP (e.g. as demonstrated by improving forecast skill scores), (b) produce physically consistent initial conditions for coupled numerical prediction systems and reanalyses (including consistent fluxes at the domain interfaces), (c) make best use of existing observations by allowing observations from each domain to influence and improve the full earth system analysis, (d) develop a robust observation-based identification and understanding of mechanisms that determine the variability of weather and climate, (e) identify critical weaknesses in coupled models and the earth observing system, (f) generate full-field estimates of unobserved or sparsely observed variables, (g) improve the estimation of the external forcings causing changes to climate, (h) transition successes from idealized CDA experiments to real-world applications. Challenges: (a) Modeling at the interfaces between interacting components of coupled Earth system models may be inadequate for estimating uncertainty or error covariances between domains, (b) current data assimilation methods may be insufficient to simultaneously analyze domains containing multiple spatiotemporal scales of interest, (c) there is no standardization of observation data or their delivery systems across domains, (d) the size and complexity of many large-scale coupled Earth system models makes it is difficult to accurately represent uncertainty due to model parameters and coupling parameters, (e) model errors lead to local biases that can transfer between the different Earth system components and lead to coupled model biases and long-term model drift, (e) information propagation across model components with different spatiotemporal scales is extremely complicated, and must be improved in current coupled modeling frameworks, (h) there is insufficient knowledge on how to represent evolving errors in non-atmospheric model components (e.g. as sea ice, land and ocean) on the timescales of NWP.

CDA↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Framework for Propagation of Uncertainties in the Kepler Data Analysis Pipeline

The Kepler space telescope is designed to detect Earth-like planets around Sun-like stars using transit photometry by simultaneously observing 100,000 stellar targets nearly continuously over a three and a half year period. The 96-megapixel focal plane consists of 42 charge-coupled devices (CCD) each containing two 1024 x 1100 pixel arrays. Cross-correlations between calibrated pixels are introduced by common calibrations performed on each CCD requiring downstream data products access to the calibrated pixel covariance matrix in order to properly estimate uncertainties. The prohibitively large covariance matrices corresponding to the ~75,000 calibrated pixels per CCD preclude calculating and storing the covariance in standard lock-step fashion. We present a novel framework used to implement standard propagation of uncertainties (POU) in the Kepler Science Operations Center (SOC) data processing pipeline. The POU framework captures the variance of the raw pixel data and the kernel of each subsequent calibration transformation allowing the full covariance matrix of any subset of calibrated pixels to be recalled on-the-fly at any step in the calibration process. Singular value decomposition (SVD) is used to compress and low-pass filter the raw uncertainty data as well as any data dependent kernels. The combination of POU framework and SVD compression provide downstream consumers of the calibrated pixel data access to the full covariance matrix of any subset of the calibrated pixels traceable to pixel level measurement uncertainties without having to store, retrieve and operate on prohibitively large covariance matrices. We describe the POU Framework and SVD compression scheme and its implementation in the Kepler SOC pipeline.

Clarke, Bruce D.↗
NASA NTRS1976

An analytical study of noise generation by subsonic flows in the presence of rigid surfaces

A general analytical method is developed for determination of the radiated noise field from highly sheared, subsonic flows in the presence of rigid surfaces. The method is specifically formulated to use measurable flow field properties as the basis input data for calculations. The governing equations of a viscous, incompressible fluid are employed to determine approximately the so-called shear noise source strength distribution in the flow. Mean rates of strain and fluctuating velocity covariances are the fundamental input data for calculations. The method is applied to the wall jet region of a circular jet impinging at 45 deg to an infinite plane surface. Velocity field measurements of Foss are used to describe the required flow properties. Comparisons of calculated results with measured surface pressures and sound pressure levels are given and discussed.

Wooley, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Navigation analysis for Viking 1979, option B

A parametric study performed for 48 trans-Mars reference missions in support of the Viking program is reported. The launch dates cover several months in the year 1979, and each launch date has multiple arrival dates in 1980. A plot of launch versus arrival dates with case numbers designated for reference purposes is included. The analysis consists of the computation of statistical covariance matrices based on certain assumptions about the ground-based tracking systems. The error model statistics are listed in tables. Tracking systems were assumed at three sites: Goldstone, California; Canberra, Australia; and Madrid, Spain. The tracking data consisted of range and Doppler measurements taken during the tracking intervals starting at E-30(d) and ending at E-10(d) for the control data and ending at E-18(h) for the knowledge data. The control and knowledge covariance matrices were delivered to the Planetary Mission Analysis Branch for inputs into a delta V dispersion analysis.

Mitchell, P. H.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Sensitivity of constrained linear inversions to the selection of the Lagrange multiplier

The influence of the choice of the Lagrange multiplier on constrained linear inversions is explored, with reference made to applications in inferring the columnar aerosol size distributions from spectral aerosol optical depth measurements. A range of the Lagrange multiplier is examined to find all positive solutions for the solution vector, which represents modifying factors to the assumed form of the size distribution. An iterative method is devised to constrain the calculations to consideration of only positive quantities and a requirement that the regression fit to data be consistent with measurement errors. The determination of the variances and covariances is formulated and applied to existing data sets for optical depth. Variances in the solution are found to be large for particle radii when the information content of the data is small.

King, M. D.↗
NASA NTRS1991

An interactive system for analysis of global cloud imagery

Synoptic images of the global cloud pattern composited from six contemporaneous satellites provide an unprecedented view of the global cloud field. Having horizontal resolution of about 0.5 deg and temporal resolution of 3 h, the global cloud imagery (GCI) resolves most of the variability of organized convection, including several harmonics of the diurnal cycle. Although the GCI has these attractive features, the dense and 3D nature of that data make it a formidable volume of information to treat in a practical and efficient manner. An interactive image-analysis system (IAS) has been developed to investigate the space-time variability of global cloud behavior. In the IAS, data, hardware, and software are integrated into a single system providing a variety of space-time covariance analyses in a menu-driven format. Owing to its customized architecture and certain homogeneous properties of the GCI, the IAS calculates such quantities effectively. Many covariance statistics are derived from 3D data with interactive speed, allowing the user to interrogate the archive iteratively in a single session. The 3D nature of those analyses and the speed with which they are performed distinguish the IAS from conventional image processing of 2D data.

Woodberry, Karen↗
NASA NTRS2013

Filter Strategies for Mars Science Laboratory Orbit Determination

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) spacecraft had ambitious navigation delivery and knowledge accuracy requirements for landing inside Gale Crater. Confidence in the orbit determination (OD) solutions was increased by investigating numerous filter strategies for solving the orbit determination problem. We will discuss the strategy for the different types of variations: for example, data types, data weights, solar pressure model covariance, and estimating versus considering model parameters. This process generated a set of plausible OD solutions that were compared to the baseline OD strategy. Even implausible or unrealistic results were helpful in isolating sensitivities in the OD solutions to certain model parameterizations or data types.

Mars Science Laboratory (MSL)↗
NASA NTRS1986

Nonlinear filtering for spacecraft attitude estimation

Nonlinear filtering techniques are applied to spacecraft attitude estimation using quaternion parameterization for the attitude kinematics. By replacing the angular velocity vector by the gyro output vector, a state dependent noise vector is introduced in the seven-dimensional system equations. The resulting conditional probability density function from the Ito differential rule is governed by the Fokker Planck partial differential equation which is approximated by the second order mean and covariance differential equations. In order to minimize computer loading, the covariance propagation is carried out in six-dimensional state space using a matrix transformation. The star tracker data is used to update the covariance matrix in the seven-dimensional space. The algorithm is simulated for an earth pointing spacecraft mission, using Monte Carlo samples of gyro and star measurements. The performance of the second order filter is compared with the extended Kalman Filter through several simulation runs and drift rates have been identified.

Vathsal, S.↗