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At least 127 records · Page 7
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DOE OSTI2024

Uruguay's Action Plan and Experience for Power Sector Decarbonization

A collaborative report from the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM), Lessons Learned for Rapid Decarbonization of Power Sectors, was delivered to energy ministers and presented at the 13th CEM (CEM13) in the United States in September 2022. In light of these lessons learned and discussed at CEM13, several jurisdictions signaled intent to develop Action Plans for power sector decarbonization. The first cohort of Action Plans was released at CEM14 in India in July 2023. The Uruguay Ministry of Industry, Energy and Mining is pleased to release this Action Plan as a contribution to the second cohort of Action Plans released at CEM15 in Brazil in October 2024. The Action Plans, supported by the 21st Century Power Partnership, and other CEM workstreams via direct technical assistance and capacity building, are intended to focus on select implementation actions given each country's existing power sector goals and activities, and are an opportunity for countries to display leadership in power sector decarbonization. The Action Plans are organized in a framework for planning, building, and operating, as well as stakeholder engagement where appropriate based on country priorities. They complement, but are differentiated from, other international power sector initiatives such as the Breakthrough Agenda (whose broad purpose is to raise collective ambition) and the Global Power System Transformation Consortium (whose goals are to convene power system operators to accelerate research innovations and foster peer learning). These Action Plans are voluntary, developed by each country individually, not comprehensive of all activities within the jurisdiction, and are living documents that are subject to change.

21st Century Power Partnership↗
DOE OSTI2024

Canada's Actions for Rapid Decarbonization of Power Sector

A collaborative report from the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM) on Lessons Learned for Rapid Decarbonization of Power Sectors was delivered to energy ministers and presented at the 13th CEM (CEM13) in the United States in September 2022. In light of these lessons learned and discussed at CEM13, several jurisdictions signaled intent to develop Action Plans for power sector decarbonization. The first cohort of Action Plans was released at CEM14 in India in July 2023. Canada is pleased to release this Action Plan as a contribution to the second cohort of Action Plans released at CEM15 in Brazil in October 2024. The Action Plans, supported by the 21st Century Power Partnership, and other CEM workstreams via direct technical assistance and capacity building, are intended to focus on select implementation actions, given each country's existing power sector goals and activities, and are an opportunity for countries to display leadership in power sector decarbonization. The Action Plans are organized in a framework for Planning, Building and Operating, as well as Stakeholder Engagement where appropriate based on country priorities. These Action Plans are voluntary, developed by each country individually, not comprehensive of all activities within the jurisdiction, and are living documents that are subject to change.

21st Century Power Partnership↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cross-national analysis of food security drivers: comparing results based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale and Global Food Security Index

Abstract The second UN Sustainable Development Goal establishes food security as a priority for governments, multilateral organizations, and NGOs. These institutions track national-level food security performance with an array of metrics and weigh intervention options considering the leverage of many possible drivers. We studied the relationships between several candidate drivers and two response variables based on prominent measures of national food security: the 2019 Global Food Security Index (GFSI) and the Food Insecurity Experience Scale’s (FIES) estimate of the percentage of a nation’s population experiencing food security or mild food insecurity (FI ). We compared the contributions of explanatory variables in regressions predicting both response variables, and we further tested the stability of our results to changes in explanatory variable selection and in the countries included in regression model training and testing. At the cross-national level, the quantity and quality of a nation’s agricultural land were not predictive of either food security metric. We found mixed evidence that per-capita cereal production, per-hectare cereal yield, an aggregate governance metric, logistics performance, and extent of paid employment work were predictive of national food security. Household spending as measured by per-capita final consumption expenditure (HFCE) was consistently the strongest driver among those studied, alone explaining a median of 92% and 70% of variation (based on out-of-sample R 2 ) in GFSI and FI , respectively. The relative strength of HFCE as a predictor was observed for both response variables and was independent of the countries used for model training, the transformations applied to the explanatory variables prior to model training, and the variable selection technique used to specify multivariate regressions. The results of this cross-national analysis reinforce previous research supportive of a causal mechanism where, in the absence of exceptional local factors, an increase in income drives increase in food security. However, the strength of this effect varies depending on the countries included in regression model fitting. We demonstrate that using multiple response metrics, repeated random sampling of input data, and iterative variable selection facilitates a convergence of evidence approach to analyzing food security drivers.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Heterogeneity or illusion? Track the carbon Kuznets curve of global residential building operations

Residential buildings, the “last mile” sector in the global decarbonization, have become the most significant uncertain factor hindering carbon neutrality with increasing household energy demand. To track the operational carbon in buildings, this study investigates the carbon Kuznets curve (CKC) and the corresponding decoupling status of residential building operations at four emission scales by using the data of 30 countries from 2000 to 2019. The results show that (1) the CKC model can fit more than half of the samples. Most curves have an inverted U-shape, with 76% of emission per household and 82% of total emissions. (2) In the presence of the CKC, over four-fifths of global residential buildings peak regardless of any emission scale. The analysis denotes that the carbon emissions of developed countries reach their peaks earlier. In the total emissions, the samples’ peaking proportion is 20% and 25% with income per capita < 20,000 United States dollars (USD) and 20,000–40,000 USD, respectively. (3) The Tapio decoupling analysis and the threshold regression effectively verify the robustness and the heterogeneity of CKCs, respectively. Strong decoupling effects of CKCs in most countries are demonstrated at the scales of emission per floor space and the total emissions, and the heterogeneity proves the classic inverted U-shaped relationship between economy and emissions doesn’t exist in all emitters. Overall, this study tracks the historical carbon emission trajectories of residential building operations at a global scale, providing reference for different economies to simulate the dynamic of building carbon emissions along with the economic booming.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparative Analysis of Natural Gas Cogeneration Incentives on Electricity Production in Latin America

An analysis to assess the influence of country-dependent variables and incentives on the feasibility of natural gas cogeneration projects in Latin America is presented in this work. The analysis is performed using a hypothetical industrial plant, where the cogeneration solution consists in the recovery of waste heat from the power generation for steam production. The feasibility is evaluated by calculating the Return of Investment (ROI) and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the project. Eight Latin American countries are studied considering their specific natural gas markets, regulation, and macroeconomic variables. Two scenarios, electricity production for self-consumption and electricity production with power surplus sale, are independently analyzed considering the effects of available incentives. In the countries where the project is feasible, the application of incentives leads to a significant reduction in the ROI and, consequently, to an increment in the IRR. The effect of the interest rate and environmental impact were also analyzed. In general terms, along the region, the regulation for cogeneration is incipient while incentives are very standard and similar respect to lowering of import, Value-Added Tax (VAT), and income taxes, which seems to be designed purely to promote capital investment. Following the results from this study, it is of paramount importance to create new policy instruments in the future to advance the regulatory framework for cogeneration in Latin America.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Biofuels Policies That Have Encouraged Their Production and Use: An International Perspective

This study evaluated the effectiveness of technology-push and market-pull policies in encouraging the production and use of biofuels in 15 countries including major biofuels producers. Biofuels production and consumption data for the 12-year period of 2006-2017 showed that in most of the surveyed countries, biofuels policies played an important role in developing and growing regional and national biofuels markets. Blending mandates continue to be the main market-pull policy used to create and expand biofuels markets. Countries with a mixture of market-pull and technology-push policy instruments have been most successful at increasing biofuels production and use and also developing and deploying less mature advanced biofuels. Most policies have primarily promoted the production and use of biofuels for road transport with key long-distance transport sectors (aviation and shipping) drawing less policy attention despite being significant fuel consumers and carbon emitters. While many older policies were originally developed to promote energy security, more recent policies, such as low carbon fuel standard, have reduction in the carbon intensity of transportation fuels as a primary goal. While policies have been essential in promoting the on-going growth of biofuels, they have not been sufficient to drive the level of development needed to decarbonize the transport sector.

biofuels for transport↗
DOE OSTI2022

What, why and when to go virtual: An international analysis of early adopters of virtual building energy codes inspections

To meet greenhouse gas reduction targets, several countries are pursuing more ambitious policies in their buildings and construction sectors, such as introducing zero net energy/carbon building codes. Countries often report not having enough qualified staff for performing building energy code inspections and many are exploring faster, easier, and more reliable methods to check the compliance of buildings with their codes. Building inspections are a critical element for ensuring code compliance and they have traditionally been performed in person. However, in-person inspections can be labor and travel intensive, costly, and prone to human error. In this paper, the authors explore how virtual inspections, particularly in light of the recent COVID-19 pandemic, have impacted processes for building code compliance checks in jurisdictions and communities around the world. Here, the authors collected data on four key parameters (time and financial savings, scope of inspections, changing practices and technological innovation, and benefits to consumers) from six jurisdictions and communities in five countries (Australia, Canada, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, and the United States) to analyze the impacts of virtual inspections on code compliance checks. The analysis found the greatest value from virtual inspections in geographically dispersed regions and for cities experiencing rapid building construction. The study also explored emerging technologies that are being piloted for virtual inspections. Although many of these technologies hold promise, more resources and capacity are needed to make them viable for use in building energy code inspections.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Efficacy of an inactivated Senecavirus A vaccine in weaned pigs and mature sows

Senecavirus A (SVA), commonly known as Seneca Valley virus (SVV) is a causative agent for vesicular disease in swine. It has been found across the globe including the United States, Brazil, and China. Clinical disease caused by this virus is identical to foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV). Since FMDV has the potential to cause severe economic consequences in FMDV-free countries, those countries are on high alert for signs of vesicles in swine and an investigation is performed to rule out the presence of FMDV if observed. In countries where SVA cases have continued to occur, investigations and testing can cause a burden on personnel and resources. The objectives of this study were to test the efficacy of a whole-virus inactivated SVA vaccine against challenge in nursery-aged pigs, mature sows, and to assess the protection of passive maternal immunity generated by immunized dams. Animals were given two doses of the vaccine intramuscularly three weeks apart and challenged intranasally two weeks after the second dose. Non-vaccinated animals challenged with SVA developed clinical signs of disease, replicated virus, and developed a neutralizing antibody response. Vaccinated animals had robust neutralizing titers after two doses; and after challenge, did not develop vesicular disease and had limited rectal shedding. Piglets suckling immunized dams and challenged with SVA at 3–6 days-of-age had neutralizing titers prior to challenge and did not replicate or shed virus. An efficacious vaccine could improve swine welfare and reduce the economic consequences of continued foreign animal disease investigations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Congenital toxoplasmosis in humans: an update of worldwide rate of congenital infections

Abstract The morbidity due to congenital toxoplasmosis in humans is very high. Most of these infected children are likely to develop symptoms of clinical toxoplasmosis. Sequelae in fetus resulting from Toxoplasma gondii infections in women who become infected with this parasite during pregnancy can be devastating and enormous efforts are directed in some countries to prevent these consequences. Here, an update on congenital toxoplasmosis in humans, especially the rate of congenital infections in humans worldwide, is provided. Although several countries have surveillance programmes, most information on the rate of congenital transmission is from France and Brazil. Because of compulsory national screening programme in France to detect and treat women with recently acquired T. gondii infection with anti-toxoplasma therapy, the rate of congenital transmission and the severity of disease in children are declining. Infections by this parasite are widely prevalent in Brazil. The severity of clinical toxoplasmosis in Brazilian children is very high and may be associated with the genetic characteristics of T. gondii isolates prevailing in animals and humans in Brazil. Virtually little or no information is available on this topic from China, India and other countries in Asia.

Parasitology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap

Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2°C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%-88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating the strength of selection for new SARS-CoV-2 variants

Abstract Controlling the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic becomes increasingly challenging as the virus adapts to human hosts through the continual emergence of more transmissible variants. Simply observing that a variant is increasing in frequency is relatively straightforward, but more sophisticated methodology is needed to determine whether a new variant is a global threat and the magnitude of its selective advantage. We present two models for quantifying the strength of selection for new and emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 relative to the background of contemporaneous variants. These methods range from a detailed model of dynamics within one country to a broad analysis across all countries, and they include alternative explanations such as migration and drift. We find evidence for strong selection favoring the D614G spike mutation and B.1.1.7 (Alpha), weaker selection favoring B.1.351 (Beta), and no advantage of R.1 after it spreads beyond Japan. Cutting back data to earlier time horizons reveals that uncertainty is large very soon after emergence, but that estimates of selection stabilize after several weeks. Our results also show substantial heterogeneity among countries, demonstrating the need for a truly global perspective on the molecular epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deployment expectations of multi-gigatonne scale carbon removal could have adverse impacts on Asia’s energy-water-land nexus

Abstract Existing studies indicate that future global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal (CDR) efforts could largely be concentrated in Asia. However, there is limited understanding of how individual Asian countries and regions will respond to varying and uncertain scales of future CDR concerning their energy-land-water system. We address this gap by modeling various levels of CDR-reliant pathways under climate change ambitions in Asia. We find that high CDR reliance leads to residual fossil fuel and industry emissions of about 8 Gigatonnes CO 2 yr −1 (GtCO 2 yr −1 ) by 2050, compared to less than 1 GtCO 2 yr −1 under moderate-to-low CDR reliance. Moreover, expectations of multi-gigatonne CDR could delay the achievement of domestic net zero CO 2 emissions for several Asian countries and regions, and lead to higher land allocation and fertilizer demand for bioenergy crop cultivation. Here, we show that Asian countries and regions should prioritize emission reduction strategies while capitalizing on the advantages of carbon removal when it is most viable.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rising infrastructure inequalities accompany urbanization and economic development

Impending global urban population growth is expected to occur with considerable infrastructure expansion. However, our understanding of attendant infrastructure inequalities is limited, highlighting a critical knowledge gap in the sustainable development implications of urbanization. Using satellite data from 2000 to 2019, we examine country-level population-adjusted biases in infrastructure distribution within and between regions of varying urbanization levels and derive four key findings. First, we find long-run positive associations between infrastructure inequalities and both urbanization and economic development. Second, our estimates highlight increasing infrastructure inequalities across most of the countries examined. Third, we find greater future infrastructure inequality increases in the global south, where inequalities will rise more in countries with substantial urban primacy. Fourth, we find that infrastructure inequality may evolve differently than economic inequalities. Overall, advancing sustainable development vis-à-vis urbanization and economic development will require intentional infrastructure planning for spatial equity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of drought on global food security by 2050

Drought is a major driver of crop production loss, threatening global food security as the population rises toward 9 billion by 2050. Using a process-based crop model within an Earth system model, we assess drought-related impacts on maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production at global and country levels. We then develop a food insecurity index combining drought impacts with socio-economic factors. Our results indicate that by 2050, globally averaged drought losses for combined maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production are <2%, though soybean losses reach 3.6%. Despite these small average changes at the global scale, 62 countries experience maximum production losses over 10%, and 24 countries over 20%. Our index identifies regions at greatest risk, including large parts of South America, Africa, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia. These results illustrate the need for drought adaptation to mitigate future drought impacts on crop production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global nitrogen deposition inputs to cropland at national scale from 1961 to 2020

Nitrogen (N) deposition is a significant nutrient input to cropland and consequently important for the evaluation of N budgets and N use efficiency (NUE) at different scales and over time. However, the spatiotemporal coverage of N deposition measurements is limited globally, whereas modeled N deposition values carry uncertainties. Here, we reviewed existing methods and related data sources for quantifying N deposition inputs to crop production on a national scale. We utilized different data sources to estimate N deposition input to crop production at national scale and compared our estimates with 14 N budget datasets, as well as measured N deposition data from observation networks in 9 countries. We created four datasets of N deposition inputs on cropland during 1961–2020 for 236 countries. These products showed good agreement for the majority of countries and can be used in the modeling and assessment of NUE at national and global scales. One of the datasets is recommended for general use in regional to global N budget and NUE estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Helping the climate by replacing liquefied natural gas with liquefied hydrogen or ammonia?

The war in Ukraine caused Europe to more than double its imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in only one year. In addition, imported LNG remains a crucial source of energy for resource-poor countries, such as Japan, where LNG imports satisfy about a quarter of the country's primary energy demand. However, an increasing number of countries are formulating stringent decarbonization plans. Liquefied hydrogen and liquefied ammonia coupled with carbon capture and storage (LH 2 -CCS, LNH 3 -CCS) are emerging as the front runners in the search for low-carbon alternatives to LNG. Yet, little is currently known about the full environmental profile of LH 2 -CCS and LNH 3 -CCS because several characteristics of the two alternatives have only been analyzed in isolation in previous work. Here we show that the potential of these fuels to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions throughout the supply chain is highly uncertain. Our best estimate is that LH 2 -CCS and LNH 3 -CCS can reduce GHG emissions by 25%–61% relative to LNG assuming a 100 year global warming potential. However, directly coupling LNG with CCS would lead to substantial GHG reductions on the order of 74%. Further, under certain conditions, emissions from LH 2 -CCS and LNH 3 -CCS could exceed those of LNG, by up to 44%. These results question the suitability of LH 2 -CCS and LNH 3 -CCS for stringent decarbonization purposes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tradeoffs between uniform land protection and biodiversity-specific land protection with <2 °C global warming

Nearly 200 countries have pledged to conserve 30% of terrestrial ecosystems to stop the global biodiversity crisis. However, biodiversity is not uniformly distributed across countries. Adequately addressing this crisis requires a scientific basis for selecting protected land that considers both ecological benefits and impacts to humans. We use the global change analysis model to evaluate land use tradeoffs of four land protection cases under two climate cases. We find that biodiversity-specific land protection up to 39% globally can reduce land use constraints and food prices compared to protecting 30% of land uniformly in each country (’30 × 30’ initiative). Valuing terrestrial carbon for climate change mitigation reduces land conversion pressure and can complement protection strategies. Global impacts to agriculture of additional land protection are small, but regional impacts vary and may be considerable. Overall, biodiversity-specific land protection has greater potential than a uniform target to meet both ecological and human needs.

biodiversity↗