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At least 127 records · Page 7

Multi-Agency Ensemble Forecast of Wildfire Air Quality in the United States: Toward Community Consensus of Early Warning

Wildfires pose increasing risks to human health and properties in North America. Due to large uncertainties in fire emission, transport, and chemical transformation, it remains challenging to accurately predict air quality during wildfire events, hindering our collective capability to issue effective early warnings to protect public health and welfare. Here we present a new real-time Hazardous Air Quality Ensemble System (HAQES) by leveraging various wildfire smoke forecasts from three U.S. federal agencies (NOAA, NASA, and Navy). Compared to individual models, the HAQES ensemble forecast significantly enhances forecast accuracy. To further enhance forecasting performance, a weighted ensemble forecast approach was introduced and tested. Compared to the unweighted ensemble mean, the multilinear regression weighted ensemble reduced fractional bias by 34% in the major fire regions, false alarm rate by 72%, and increased hit rate by 17%. Finally, we improved the weighted ensemble using quantile regression and weighted regression methods to enhance the forecast of extreme air quality events. The advanced weighted ensemble increased the PM2.5 exceedance hit rate by 55% compared to the ensemble mean. Our findings provide insights into the development of advanced ensemble forecast methods for wildfire air quality, offering a practical way to enhance decision-making support to protect public health.

Yunyao Li↗

Domestic and International Standards for Nuclear Criticality Safety – Overview and Status

The domestic and international consensus standards for nuclear criticality safety (NCS) have provided guidance for staff performing hands-on work in operations with fissionable materials. These consensus standards have contributed directly to the significant reduction in the rate of criticality accidents in process facilities since the 1940s. The last known criticality accident inside the United States was in 1978 (nearly 43 years ago) at the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant, and outside the United States, an accident occurred at Tokai-mura, Japan, in 1999 (23 years ago). The domestic consensus standards for NCS include the American Nuclear Society (ANS) standards. The ANS Standards Board, the NCS Consensus Committee, and the ANS-8 Subcommittee oversee the development and maintenance of these standards. There are currently eighteen standards in the ANS-8 series. Currently, there are six ANS-8 standards in revision mode and eleven in a maintenance mode with one new standard under development. The international consensus standards for NCS calculations, procedures, and practices are maintained and developed within the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), Technical Committee 85 on Nuclear Energy, Subcommittee 5 on Nuclear Fuel Technology, and Working Group 8, “Nuclear Criticality Safety.” Eleven standards are currently available, three standards are in revision mode, and two standards are development. This paper provides the NCS community with an overview and status report of domestic and international NCS consensus standards to stimulate interest and to support their continued development.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Domestic and International Standards for Nuclear Criticality Safety - Overview & Status [Abstract]

The domestic and international consensus standards for nuclear criticality safety (NCS) have provided guidance for staff performing hands-on work in operations with fissionable materials. These consensus standards have contributed directly to the significant reduction in the rate of criticality accidents in process facilities since the 1940s. The last known criticality accident inside the United States was in 1978 (nearly 43 years ago) at the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant, and outside the United States, an accident occurred at Tokai-mura, Japan, in 1999 (22 years ago). The domestic consensus standards for NCS include the American Nuclear Society (ANS) standards. The ANS Standards Board, the NCS Consensus Committee, and the ANS-8 Subcommittee oversee the development and maintenance of these standards. There are currently eighteen standards in the ANS-8 series. Currently, there are six ANS-8 standards in re- vision mode and eleven in a maintenance mode with one new standard under development. The international consensus standards for NCS calculations, procedures, and practices are maintained and developed within the International Organization for Standardization, Technical Committee 85 on Nuclear Energy, Subcommittee 5 on Nuclear Fuel Technology, and Working Group 8, “Nuclear Criticality Safety.” Eleven standards are currently available, three standards are in revision mode, and two standards are development. This paper provides the NCS community with an overview and status report of domestic and international NCS consensus standards to stimulate interest and to support their continued development.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Software reliability through fault-avoidance and fault-tolerance

Twenty independently developed but functionally equivalent software versions were used to investigate and compare empirically some properties of N-version programming, Recovery Block, and Consensus Recovery Block, using the majority and consensus voting algorithms. This was also compared with another hybrid fault-tolerant scheme called Acceptance Voting, using dynamic versions of consensus and majority voting. Consensus voting provides adaptation of the voting strategy to varying component reliability, failure correlation, and output space characteristics. Since failure correlation among versions effectively reduces the cardinality of the space in which the voter make decisions, consensus voting is usually preferable to simple majority voting in any fault-tolerant system. When versions have considerably different reliabilities, the version with the best reliability will perform better than any of the fault-tolerant techniques.

Vouk, Mladen A.↗

Structural variant analysis of a cancer reference cell line sample using multiple sequencing technologies

The cancer genome is commonly altered with thousands of structural rearrangements including insertions, deletions, translocation, inversions, duplications, and copy number variations. Thus, structural variant (SV) characterization plays a paramount role in cancer target identification, oncology diagnostics, and personalized medicine. As part of the SEQC2 Consortium effort, the present study established and evaluated a consensus SV call set using a breast cancer reference cell line and matched normal control derived from the same donor, which were used in our companion benchmarking studies as reference samples. We systematically investigated somatic SVs in the reference cancer cell line by comparing to a matched normal cell line using multiple NGS platforms including Illumina short-read, 10X Genomics linked reads, PacBio long reads, Oxford Nanopore long reads, and high-throughput chromosome conformation capture (Hi-C). We established a consensus SV call set of a total of 1788 SVs including 717 deletions, 230 duplications, 551 insertions, 133 inversions, 146 translocations, and 11 breakends for the reference cancer cell line. To independently evaluate and cross-validate the accuracy of our consensus SV call set, we used orthogonal methods including PCR-based validation, Affymetrix arrays, Bionano optical mapping, and identification of fusion genes detected from RNA-seq. We evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of each NGS technology for SV determination, and our findings provide an actionable guide to improve cancer genome SV detection sensitivity and accuracy. A high-confidence consensus SV call set was established for the reference cancer cell line. A large subset of the variants identified was validated by multiple orthogonal methods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Oak Ridge National Laboratory Pilot Demonstration of an Attestation and Anomaly Detection Framework using Distributed Ledger Technology for Power Grid Infrastructure

This report summarizes the design and pilot demonstration of a framework called Grid Guard that was created to provide increased data and device trustworthiness to electric grid devices by leveraging distributed ledger technology (DLT), specifically blockchain. Grid Guard contains a combination of core cryptographic methods such as the secure hash algorithm (SHA), and asymmetric cryptography, private permissioned blockchain, baselining configuration data, consensus algorithm (Raft) and the Hyperledger Fabric (HLF) framework. The system implements a low energy, fast, and robust enhancement to system trustworthiness within and across electric grid systems such as substations, control centers and metering infrastructures. Blockchain is a distributed database structured that provides a practically unalterable (immutable) timeline of stored transactions. By relying on hashing and the Raft consensus algorithm, if an entity tries to illegitimately alter a record at one instance of the database the other ledger nodes are not altered. They work to cross-reference each other and easily locate any incorrectly added data and remove it. The bulk raw data is stored in an off-chain storage (outside of the blockchain ledger) and a hash of this baseline data is stored in the Blockchain ledger via hashing windows of time-series and configuration data, after aggregation and filtering. The bulk off-chain data repository is then considered to be trust-anchored using the hashes stored in the blockchain. To secure the electric grid testbed devices and data, device configuration baselines were compared to those baselines that had been previously stored in the ledger. Statistical baselines for device configurations, network communication patterns, and high-speed sensor data are calculated and then stored off-chain and hashes stored in the ledger. Measurements such as three-phase voltage and current, frequency, breaker status, protection scheme settings, network configuration settings (and other device configuration artifacts) and network traffic features (packet interarrival times) are compared every minute or other selected time windows. During phase 1 of the Grid Guard DLT project different DLT technologies were studies, and an assessment was performed on DLT technology vulnerabilities, uses, and key characteristics. DLT consensus protocols were studies (e.g., RAFT, named after Reliable, Replicated, Redundant, And Fault-Tolerant). Also, cryptography, public, private and permissioned or permissionless systems were assessed. Grid Guard implements a permissioned private DLT. Consensus algorithm selection and choice of DLT implementation depended heavily on the use-case. For this use-case, parameters were selected to measure performance and existing tools for assessment. Benchmarking was performed theoretically and practically. During phase 2 hashed transactions/blocks were inserted into the ledger every second. During phase 2 of the Grid Guard DLT project, a prototype framework was developed and demonstrated for attestation of critical substation devices and data using precision timing systems that use PTP and IRIG-B protocols) on a testbed of operational devices that emulated a distribution substation, control center, and power metering infrastructure using real Operational Technology (OT). The testbed includes OT devices such as protective relays, human machine interfaces (HMI), and power meters. To determine when to collect and compare system and network baselines, an initial examination of an anomaly detection capability to identify malicious manipulation of data streams was conducted. The resulting anomaly detection was demonstrated in a set of experiments and leveraged to trigger device artifact attestation checks. Attestation checks occur against device configuration baselines when compared with the immutable blockchain-stored baselines, which provided a cryptographically supported means by which to store baselines. The electrical substation-grid testbed was created to test the Grid Guard framework. The testbed emulates the operations of a portion of a power grid and SCADA systems as closely as possible. The testbed integrates real protocols, mainly IEC 61850 standard protocols, such as the Sampled Value (SV) and the GOOSE protocols. The testbed also supports DNP3 and other layer 2 and layer 3 protocols such as Telnet, SSH, SFTP/FTP and other proprietary protocols needed to connect to industrial control system equipment. The testbed emulates real power conditions using the OpalRT hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) device which can create fault situations that cannot be easily tested on real systems. The electrical substation-grid testbed was created using real measurement, communication, and protection devices that electrical utilities commonly use.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An expanded role for the transcription factor WRINKLED1 in the biosynthesis of triacylglycerols during seed development

The transcription factor WRINKLED1 ( WRI1 ) is known as a master regulator of fatty acid synthesis in developing oilseeds of Arabidopsis thaliana and other species. WRI1 is known to directly stimulate the expression of many fatty acid biosynthetic enzymes and a few targets in the lower part of the glycolytic pathway. However, it remains unclear to what extent and how the conversion of sugars into fatty acid biosynthetic precursors is controlled by WRI 1. To shortlist possible gene targets for future in-planta experimental validation, here we present a strategy that combines phylogenetic foot printing of cis-regulatory elements with additional layers of evidence. Upstream regions of protein-encoding genes in A. thaliana were searched for the previously described DNA-binding consensus for WRI1, the ASML1/WRI1 (AW)-box. For about 900 genes, AW-box sites were found to be conserved across orthologous upstream regions in 11 related species of the crucifer family. For 145 select potential target genes identified this way, affinity of upstream AW-box sequences to WRI1 was assayed by Microscale Thermophoresis. This allowed definition of a refined WRI1 DNA-binding consensus. We find that known WRI1 gene targets are predictable with good confidence when upstream AW-sites are phylogenetically conserved, specifically binding WRI1 in the in vitro assay, positioned in proximity to the transcriptional start site, and if the gene is co-expressed with WRI1 during seed development. When targets predicted in this way are mapped to central metabolism, a conserved regulatory blueprint emerges that infers concerted control of contiguous pathway sections in glycolysis and fatty acid biosynthesis by WRI1. Several of the newly predicted targets are in the upper glycolysis pathway and the pentose phosphate pathway. Of these, plastidic isoforms of fructokinase ( FRK 3) and of phosphoglucose isomerase ( PGI 1) are particularly corroborated by previously reported seed phenotypes of respective null mutations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Resources Available for Hazards Analysis of Aerospace Fluids

In recent years, the legislative and executive branches of the federal government have pushed to make government more efficient and responsive to the needs of the marketplace. One of these initiatives, Public Law 104-113, also known as the National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act of 1995 (NTTAA), is designed to accelerate technology transfer to industry and promote government-industry partnership. Summarized, NTTAA states that '... all Federal agencies and departments shall use technical standards that are developed or adopted by voluntary consensus standards bodies, using such technical standards as a means to carry out policy objectives or activities determined by the agencies and departments. Government agencies must now determine if their in-house requirement-setting activities are sufficiently unique that no public interest is served by having them adopted by a voluntary consensus organization (VCO), or if not, to use or develop voluntary consensus standards. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is chartered by the law to monitor federal agency progress and report the results to Congress. In response to NTTAA, agency-wide oxygen and hydrogen safety standards sponsored by the NASA Headquarters (HQ) Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) were obvious choices for early adoption by VCOs. In 1996, HQ sought assistance from the Johnson Space Center (JSC) White Sands Test Facility (WSTF), the technical lead for development of these safety standards, to evaluate their adoption by VCOs. At that time, WSTF-developed propellant hazards manuals were likewise identified for possible VCO adoption. Subsequently, WSTF was asked to represent NASA for development of an international ISO safety standard for hydrogen use. Concurrent with these WSTF standards activities are related efforts to develop and publish propellant hazards analysis protocols and safety courses for the industrial, propellant use of oxygen, hydrogen, and hypergols. This paper reports on these efforts and describes WSTF's overall voluntary consensus standards program to coordinate the interchange of NASA's propellant hazards and safety information with industry.

Woods, S. S.↗

Converter Compressor Building, SWMU 089, Hot Spot Areas 1, 2, and 5 Operations, Maintenance, and Monitoring Report, Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This Operations, Maintenance, and Monitoring Report (OMMR) presents the findings, observations, and results from operation of the air sparging (AS) interim measure (IM) for Hot Spot (HS) Areas 1, 2, and 5 at the Converter Compressor Building (CCB) located at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. The objective of the IM at CCB HS Areas 1, 2, and 5 is to decrease concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in groundwater in the treatment zones via AS to levels that will enable a transition to a monitored natural attenuation (MNA) phase. This OMMR presents system operations and maintenance (O&M) information and performance monitoring results since full-scale O&M began in June 2014 (2 months after initial system startup in April 2014), including quarterly performance monitoring events in July and October 2014 and January and May 2015. Based on the results to date, the AS system is operating as designed and is meeting the performance criteria and IM objective. The performance monitoring network is adequately constructed for assessment of IM performance at CCB HS Areas 1, 2, and 5. At the March 2014 KSC Remediation Team (KSCRT) Meeting, team consensus was reached for the design prepared for expansion of the system to treat the HS 4 area, and at the November 2014 KSCRT Meeting, team consensus was reached that HS 3 was adequately delineated horizontally and vertically and for selection of AS for the remedial approach for HS 3. At the July 2015 KSCRT meeting, team consensus was reached to continue IM operations in all zones until HSs 3 and 4 is operational, once HS 3 and 4 zones are operational discontinue operations in HS 1, 2, and 5 zones where concentrations are less than GCTLs to observe whether rebounding conditions occur. Team consensus was also reached to continue quarterly performance monitoring to determine whether operational zones achieve GCTLs and to continue annual IGWM of CCB-MW0012, CCBMW0013, and CCB-MW0056, located south of the treatment area. The next performance monitoring event is scheduled for July 2015.

Converter Compressor Building↗

Life Support Goals Including High Closure and Low Mass Should Be Reconsidered Using Systems Analysis

Recycling space life support systems have been built and tested since the 1960s and have operated on the International Space Station (ISS) since the mid 2000s. The development of space life support has been guided by a general consensus focused on two important related goals, increasing system closure and reducing launch mass. High closure is achieved by recycling crew waste products such as carbon dioxide and condensed humidity. Recycling directly reduces the mass of oxygen and water for the crew that must be launched from Earth. The launch mass of life support can be further reduced by developing recycling systems with lower hardware mass and reduced power. The life support consensus has also favored using biological systems. The goal of increasing closure using biological systems suggests that food should be grown in space and that biological processors be used for air, water, and waste recycling. The goal of reducing launch mass led to use of Equivalent System Mass (ESM) in life support advocacy and technology selection. The recent consensus assumes that the recycling systems architecture developed in the 1960s and implemented on ISS will be used on all future long missions. NASA and other project organizations use the standard systems engineering process to guide hardware development. The systems process was used to develop ISS life support, but it has been less emphasized in planning future systems for the moon and Mars. Since such missions are far in the future, there has been less immediate need for systems engineering analysis to consider trade-offs, reliability, and Life Cycle Cost (LCC). Preliminary systems analysis suggests that the life support consensus concepts should be revised to reflect systems engineering requirements.

systems analysis↗

Robust and cybersecure coordinated unintentional island detection for microgrids

Unintentional islanding (UI) of a circuit of distributed energy resources (DERs) may leave area electrical power systems (EPS), external to the DER circuit, energized. Thus, UI detection methods have been developed to detect unintentional islanding and trigger a UI response. However, individual UI detection methods have various deficiencies. Thus, a consensus-based UI detection process is disclosed that builds a consensus from multiple UI detection sources, optionally implementing different UI detection methods. The redundancy in this consensus-based UI detection process provides robust, sensitive, selective, and cybersecure UI detection for the entire DER circuit. For example, the consensus-based UI detection process may eliminate or reduce non-detection zones, avoid false positives, thwart cyber-attacks, and/or the like.

Brissette, Alex↗