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NASA NTRS1989

The orbital inclination of A0620 - 00 measured polarimetrically

The mass of the degenerate primary in A0620 - 00 is inferred from its spectroscopic mass function to be not less than 3.2 solar masses, making it an excellent candidate for a black hole. The exact value of the mass depends on the orbital inclination. The inclination of a binary system can be determined from the shape of its Stokes parameter light curves if the linear polarization of the system varies as a function of orbital phase. A0620 - 00 over one 8-hour binary period was observed with the 4.5-m equivalent MMT. Its polarization in the visible is variable with orbital phase. The standard theory of Brown et al. (1978) was used to derive an orbital inclination of i = 57 deg (+20 deg, -50 deg), where the error is the 90-percent confidence interval. An inclination of i = 57 deg corresponds to a mass of the compact primary of 6.6 solar masses, but the large uncertainty in the measured value of the inclination allows the derived mass of A0620 - 00 to be as low as 3.8 solar masses. If this is taken to be the maximum mass of any degenerate configuration consistent with general relativity except a black hole, then the mass of A0620 - 00 is still not well enough determined to conclude that it must be a black hole.

Dolan, Joseph F.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Variance and bias computation for enhanced system identification

A study is made of the use of a series of variance and bias confidence criteria recently developed for the eigensystem realization algorithm (ERA) identification technique. The criteria are shown to be very effective, not only for indicating the accuracy of the identification results (especially in terms of confidence intervals), but also for helping the ERA user to obtain better results. They help determine the best sample interval, the true system order, how much data to use and whether to introduce gaps in the data used, what dimension Hankel matrix to use, and how to limit the bias or correct for bias in the estimates.

Bergmann, Martin↗
NASA NTRS1989

New measurements of the far ultraviolet scattering properties of interstellar dust

An analysis is presented for the spectra of the diffuse ultraviolet background taken during shuttle flight STS-61C (January 1986). Eight regions of the sky were observed for approximately 20 minutes each, using a spectrograph designed specifically to perform measurements of the UV background. The field of view was 3.8 deg x 8 min, with imaging along the slit to confine stellar contamination. The instrument featured a shutter mechanism to measure internal background during flight, a low-scatter holographically ruled diffraction grating, photon counting microchannel plate detectors, through baffling, and a crystal window to further attenuate stray light. The spectra covered the range 1400 to 1850 A and was binned in 50 A bands. The procedure for substracting the contribution of stars too faint to be detected as discrete sources during the observations (in general this represents a small fraction of the total intensity detected except at the longest wavelengths). A radiative transfer model used to interpret the data and set confidence intervals on the relevant parameters is described. It was found that the continuum component of the diffuse ultraviolet background arises primarily from two sources. One source is scattering of starlight by interstellar dust with an albedo of about 12 percent and a relatively isotropic phase function. A second source consists of about 150 photons/cm/sec/ster/A of extragalactic light which is attenuated by the dust in the galaxy. Although emission features possibly associated with molecular H2 are detected in one look direction, fluorescence of H2 is not a major contributor to the diffuse UV background, at least at galactic latitudes greater than -10 degrees.

Hurwitz, Mark↗
NASA NTRS1990

Stochastic Robustness: Towards a Comprehensive Robustness Tool

Stochastic robustness is a simple technique to determine the robustness of linear, time-invariant systems by Monte Carlo methods. Stochastic stability robustness has been described previously. Those results are extended here to provide insight into control system design for performance. Together, stochastic stability and performance robustness concepts constitute a comprehensive tool that can be used to analyze control system robustness properties. As well, they offer control system design insight that can set the stage for stochastic robustness synthesis. The concept of stochastic stability robustness is reviewed, stochastic performance robustness is introduced, and stochastic robustness synthesis is described qualitatively. Confidence intervals necessary for comparing control laws statistically are presented.

Ray, Laurie Ryan↗
NASA NTRS1990

Some far-field acoustics characteristics of the XV-15 tilt-rotor aircraft

Far-field acoustics tests have been conducted on an instrumented XV-15 tilt-rotor aircraft. The purpose of these acoustic measurements was to create an encompassing, high confidence (90 percent), and accurate (-1.4/ +1/8 dB theoretical confidence interval) far-field acoustics data base to validate ROTONET and other current rotorcraft noise prediction computer codes. This paper describes the flight techniques used, with emphasis on the care taken to obtain high-quality far-field acoustic data. The quality and extensiveness of the data base collected are shown by presentation of ground acoustic contours for level flyovers for the airplane flight mode and for several forward velocities and nacelle tilts for the transition mode and helicopter flight mode. Acoustic pressure time-histories and fully analyzed ensemble averaged far-field data results (spectra) are shown for each of the ground contour cases.

Golub, Robert A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Gamma-ray burster counterparts - Archival data

This paper reports on the results of a search for optical transient images associated with gamma-ray bursters based on the collection of archival photographs at the Harvard College Observatory. This study searched through over 32,000 plates showing 16 gamma-ray burst error regions. The primary result is the identification of three optical transient images. The recurrence time scale for optical events with a gamma-ray to optical fluence ratio of less than 1000 is estimated to be 1.3 yr (with a 99-percent confidence interval of between 0.41 and 4.8 yr). A control study was simultaneously made where regions of the sky with no bursters were examined. The control region was 15.6 times larger than the burst search region, yet no optical transients were found. This paper describes in detail the methodology and the statistical results. Close attention is paid to a detailed analysis of the three optical transient images.

Schaefer, Bradley E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Carbon kinetic isotope effect in the oxidation of methane by the hydroxyl radical

The reaction of the hydroxyl radical (HO) with the stable carbon isotopes of methane has been studied as a function of temperature from 273 to 353 K. The measued ratio of the rate coefficients for reaction with (C-12)H4 relative to (C-13)H4 (k12/k13) was 1.0054 (+ or - 0.0009 at the 95 percent confidence interval), independent of temperature within the precision of the measurement, over the range studied. The precision of the present value is much improved over that of previous studies, and this result provides important constraints on the current understanding of the cycling of methane through the atmosphere through the use of carbon isotope measurements.

Cantrell, Christopher A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Satellite remote sensing of primary production in the Sahel using NOAA AVHRR 1981-1988

Field measurements of primary production in semiarid grasslands in three Sahelian countries over a period of 8 years are analyzed in conjunction with multitemporal sums of vegetation indices derived from the NOAA spacecraft's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer. The results demonstrate that there is a strong linear relationship between the satellite observations of vegetation indices and the primary production in the range 0-3,000 kg/ha. The confidence intervals of estimation of production were in the range + or - 61-161 kg/ha.

Prince, Stephen D.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Technical notes and correspondence: Stochastic robustness of linear time-invariant control systems

A simple numerical procedure for estimating the stochastic robustness of a linear time-invariant system is described. Monte Carlo evaluations of the system's eigenvalues allows the probability of instability and the related stochastic root locus to be estimated. This analysis approach treats not only Gaussian parameter uncertainties but non-Gaussian cases, including uncertain-but-bounded variation. Confidence intervals for the scalar probability of instability address computational issues inherent in Monte Carlo simulation. Trivial extensions of the procedure admit consideration of alternate discriminants; thus, the probabilities that stipulated degrees of instability will be exceeded or that closed-loop roots will leave desirable regions can also be estimated. Results are particularly amenable to graphical presentation.

Stengel, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Review and statistical analysis of the use of ultrasonic velocity for estimating the porosity fraction in polycrystalline materials

A review and statistical analysis of the ultrasonic velocity method for estimating the porosity fraction in polycrystalline materials is presented. Initially, a semiempirical model is developed showing the origin of the linear relationship between ultrasonic velocity and porosity fraction. Then, from a compilation of data produced by many researchers, scatter plots of velocity versus percent porosity data are shown for Al2O3, MgO, porcelain-based ceramics, PZT, SiC, Si3N4, steel, tungsten, UO2,(U0.30Pu0.70)C, and YBa2Cu3O(7-x). Linear regression analysis produces predicted slope, intercept, correlation coefficient, level of significance, and confidence interval statistics for the data. Velocity values predicted from regression analysis of fully-dense materials are in good agreement with those calculated from elastic properties.

Roth, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Variance and bias computations for improved modal identification using ERA/DC

Variance and bias confidence criteria were recently developed for the eigensystem realization algorithm (ERA) identification technique. These criteria are extended for the modified version of ERA based on data correlation, ERA/DC, and also for the Q-Markov cover algorithm. The importance and usefulness of the variance and bias information are demonstrated in numerical studies. The criteria are shown to be very effective not only by indicating the accuracy of the identification results, especially in terms of confidence intervals, but also by helping the ERA user to obtain better results by seeing the effect of changing the sample time, adjusting the Hankel matrix dimension, choosing how many singular values to retain, deciding the model order, etc.

Longman, Richard W.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A sensitive method for measuring atmospheric concentrations of sulfur dioxide

A new method for measuring tropospheric sulfur dioxide concentrations is proposed which is based on the mist chamber sampling method. At the present stage of development, the detection limit of the method is approximately 20 parts per trillion for a 45-min sampling time, with lower concentrations detectable with lower precision. The overall reproducibility of the method (+/-95 percent confidence intervals) is estimated at +/-10 percent. The technique is relatively simple, inexpensive, and lightweight, making it ideally suited for numerous field applications in atmospheric chemistry and biogeochemical studies from both ground-based and airborne platforms.

Klemm, O.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A statistical model for evaluating GOPEX uplink performance

This article describes a statistical model to analyze the signal intensity received at the solid-state imaging (SSI) camera of the Galileo optical communications system from an Earth-based transmitter (GOPEX) demonstration. The analytical model assumes that the optical beam possesses a Gaussian profile and the communication channel has a log-normal scattering characteristic. The atmospheric-induced jitter is modelled as two independent zero mean Gaussian random variables. By modelling the system parameters as a set of independent and identically distributed (iid) random variables, the combined impact of uncertainties due to system parameters and the turbulent atmosphere can be approximated by a log-normal distributed signal intensity at the spacecraft. A Monte-Carlo software simulation package was also developed to compute the confidence interval probabilities for general optical beam profiles. Numerical results show that the approximation is valid for a wide range of operation scenarios.

Kiesaleh, K.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The dynamics of Abell 2634

We have amassed a large sample of velocity data for the cluster of galaxies Abell 2634 which contains the wide-angle tail (WAT) radio source 3C 465. Robust indicators of location and scale and their confidence intervals are used to determine if the cD galaxy, containing the WAT, has a significant peculiar motion. We find a cD peculiar radial velocity of 219 plus or minus 98 km s(exp -1). Further dynamical analyses, including substructure and normality tests, suggest that A 2634 is an unrelaxed cluster whose radio source structure may be bent by the turbulent gas of a recent cluster-subcluster merger.

Pinkney, J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Experimental analysis of computer system dependability

This paper reviews an area which has evolved over the past 15 years: experimental analysis of computer system dependability. Methodologies and advances are discussed for three basic approaches used in the area: simulated fault injection, physical fault injection, and measurement-based analysis. The three approaches are suited, respectively, to dependability evaluation in the three phases of a system's life: design phase, prototype phase, and operational phase. Before the discussion of these phases, several statistical techniques used in the area are introduced. For each phase, a classification of research methods or study topics is outlined, followed by discussion of these methods or topics as well as representative studies. The statistical techniques introduced include the estimation of parameters and confidence intervals, probability distribution characterization, and several multivariate analysis methods. Importance sampling, a statistical technique used to accelerate Monte Carlo simulation, is also introduced. The discussion of simulated fault injection covers electrical-level, logic-level, and function-level fault injection methods as well as representative simulation environments such as FOCUS and DEPEND. The discussion of physical fault injection covers hardware, software, and radiation fault injection methods as well as several software and hybrid tools including FIAT, FERARI, HYBRID, and FINE. The discussion of measurement-based analysis covers measurement and data processing techniques, basic error characterization, dependency analysis, Markov reward modeling, software-dependability, and fault diagnosis. The discussion involves several important issues studies in the area, including fault models, fast simulation techniques, workload/failure dependency, correlated failures, and software fault tolerance.

Iyer, Ravishankar, K.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Time to detection of circulating microbubbles as a risk factor for symptoms of altitude decompression sickness

This study investigated the association between time at onset of circulating microbubbles (CMB) and symptoms of altitude decompression sickness (DCS), using Cox proportional hazard regression models. The study population consisted of 125 individuals who participated in direct ascent, simulated extravehicular activities profiles. Using individual CMB status as a time-dependent variable, we found that the hazard for symptoms increased significantly (at the end of 180 min at altitude) in the presence of CMB (Hazard Ratio = 29.59; 95 percent confidence interval (95 percent CI) = 7.66-114.27), compared to no CMB. Further examination was conducted on the subgroup of individuals who developed microbubbles during the test (n = 49), by using Cox regression. Individuals with late onset of CMB (greater than 60 min at altitude) showed a significantly reduced risk of symptoms (hazard ratio = 0.92; 95 percent CI = 0.89-0.95), compared to those with early onset (equal to or less than 60 min), while controlling for other risk factors. We conclude that time to detection of circulating microbubbles is an independent determinant of symptoms of DCS.

Kumar, K. V.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Analysis of upper and lower bounds of the frame noise in linear detector arrays

This paper estimates the upper and lower bounds of the frame noise of a linear detector array that uses a one-dimensional scan pattern. Using chi-square distribution, it is analytically shown why it is necessary to use the average of the variances and not the average of the standard deviations to estimate these bounds. Also, a criteria for determining whether any excessively noisy lines exist among the detectors is derived from these bounds. Using a Gaussian standard random variable generator, these bounds are demonstrated to be accurate within the specified confidence interval. A silicon detector array is then used for actual dark current measurements. The criterion developed for determination of noisy detectors is checked on the experimentally obtained data.

Jaggi, S.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Confidence bounds on structural reliability

Different approaches for quantifying physical, statistical, and model uncertainties associated with the distribution parameters which are aimed at determining structural reliability are described. Confidence intervals on the distribution parameters of the input random variables are estimated using four algorithms to evaluate uncertainty of the response. Design intervals are evaluated using either Monte Carlo simulation or an iterative approach. A first order approach can be used to compute a first approximation of the design interval, but its accuracy is not satisfactory. The regression approach which combines the iterative approach with Monte Carlo simulation is capable of providing good results if the performance function can be accurately represented using regression analysis. It is concluded that the design interval-based approach seems to be quite general and takes into account distribution and model uncertainties.

Mehta, S. R.↗