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Enhancing Confidence in a Software Ecosystem through Complementary Layers of Software Testing
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The Impacts of Explainability and Confidence on User Trust of a Digital Assistant
This is one of several manuscripts documenting the outcomes of the Trust in VUI project. We will request sponsor approval, and then plan to submit to the ESARDA Bulletin.
Phenotyping Alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) Root Structure Architecture via Integrating Confident Machine Learning with ResNet-18
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Data and code for: Combining eddy covariance towers, field measurements, and the MEMS 2 ecosystem model improves confidence in the climate impacts of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
BECCS demands extensive land use change that may create positive or negative radiative forcing impacts upstream of the BECCS facility through changes to in situ greenhouse gas fluxes and land surface albedo. When quantifying these upstream climate impacts, even at a single site, different methods can give different estimates. Here we show how three common methods for estimating the net ecosystem carbon balance of bioenergy crops established on former grassland or former cropland can differ in their central estimates and uncertainty.
Improving the Confidence in Retrievals of Vertical Distributions of Cloud Condensation Nuclei Number Concentration from ARM Supported by Aircraft In Situ Observations
Accurate quantification of the vertical distribution of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations is critical for improving our understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions. Ground-based Raman lidars operated by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, together with surface CCN measurements, are used to retrieve vertically resolved CCN number concentrations (Retrieved Number concentration of CCN, RNCCN). These retrievals rely on several assumptions, including that aerosol composition is vertically homogeneous. To assess this assumption, we developed and tested a framework to infer the dominant aerosol classes/types at different altitudes. This was done by applying a k-Nearest-Neighbors (kNN) algorithm to lidar ratio and linear depolarization ratio measurements from Raman lidar. We evaluated the framework using aircraft aerosol and CCN measurements from the ARM Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign. The results show that RNCCN performance degrades as vertical aerosol complexity increases, i.e., RNCCN agrees with the aircraft CCN in vertically homogeneous conditions, but closure decreases in layered aerosol structures. To generalize beyond individual examples, we introduce a metric (heterogeneity index) that quantifies the vertical complexity by assessing the variation of inferred aerosol classes/types. Case-level statistics show a tendency for RNCCN and aircraft differences to increase with this metric. By detecting retrievals that are likely compromised by aerosol vertical heterogeneity, the proposed framework improves the interpretability and effective use of RNCCN used for long-term evaluation of models and aerosol–cloud interactions.
Nuclear rocketry - confidence substantiated.
Reactor tests show that nuclear rockets can be made available for post-Apollo missions, noting operational and mission versatility
Reliability-confidence combinations for small-sample tests of aerospace ordnance items
Reliability engineering and small sample tests for aerospace ordnance items
Comments relating to confidence-reliability combinations for small-sample tests of aerospace ordnance items.
Aerospace ordnance components reliability evaluated for small sample tests
A digital technique for determining 1/3-octave sound-pressure levels with a more uniform confidence level
Computer program for determining third octave sound spectra in acoustic test data
Demonstration of the range over which the Langley Research Center digital computer charring ablation program /CHAP/ can be used with confidence. Task 1 - Collection of properties data and ablation test data for three charring materials, and results of qualifying calculations with CHAP Final report
Thermochemical and thermophysical properties and ablation test data for three charring ablators
Demonstration of the range over which the Langley Research Center digital computer charring ablation program (CHAP) can be used with confidence: Comparisons of CHAP predictions and test data for three ablation materials
Comparisons of ablation calculations with the charring ablation computer code and ablation test data are presented over a wide range of environmental conditions in air for three materials: low-density nylon phenolic, Avcoat 5026-39HC/G, and a filled silicon elastomer. Heat fluxes considered range from over 500 Btu/sq ft-sec to less than 50 Btu/sq ft-sec. Pressures range from 0.5 atm to .004 atm. Enthalpies range from about 2000 Btu/lb to 18000 Btu/lb. Predictions of recession, pyrolysis penetration, and thermocouple responses are considered. Recession predictions for nylon phenolic are good as steady state is approached, but strongly transient cases are underpredicted. Pyrolysis penetrations and thermocouple responses are very well predicted. Recession amounts for Avcoat and silicone elastomer are less well predicted, although high heat flux cases near steady state are fairly satisfactory. Pyrolysis penetrations and thermocouple responses are very well predicted.
Confidence about line features in Her X-1 spectrum
A balloon borne X-ray telescope was flown Aire-surl'Adour, France to search for pulsation of the X-ray source HER X1. The source was measured for about 3500 s relative exposure larger than 0.75 and features were detected at 57.5 plus or minus 7.5 keV and 135 plus or minus 10 keV in the spectrum. Data were reanalyzed in terms of possibility of gain shift encoder. The very strong dependence of the line features on such a shift is discussed.
Effect of autocorrelated observations on confidence sets based upon chi-square statistics
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Test program to provide confidence in liquid oxygen cooling of hydrocarbon fueled rocket thrust chambers
In previous tests of liquid oxygen cooling of hydrocarbon fueled rocket engines, small oxygen leaks developed at the throat of the thrust chamber and film cooled the hot gas side of the chamber wall without resulting in catastrophic failure. However, more testing is necessary to demonstrate that a catastropic failure would not occur if cracks developed further upstream between the injector and the throat, where the boundary layer has not been established. Since under normal conditions cracks are expected to form in the throat region of the thrust chamber, cracks must be initiated artificially in order to control their location. Several methods of crack initiation are discussed here.
A Bayesian approach to reliability and confidence
The historical evolution of NASA's interest in quantitative measures of reliability assessment is outlined. The introduction of some quantitative methodologies into the Vehicle Reliability Branch of the Safety, Reliability and Quality Assurance (SR and QA) Division at Johnson Space Center (JSC) was noted along with the development of the Extended Orbiter Duration--Weakest Link study which will utilize quantitative tools for a Bayesian statistical analysis. Extending the earlier work of NASA sponsor, Richard Heydorn, researchers were able to produce a consistent Bayesian estimate for the reliability of a component and hence by a simple extension for a system of components in some cases where the rate of failure is not constant but varies over time. Mechanical systems in general have this property since the reliability usually decreases markedly as the parts degrade over time. While they have been able to reduce the Bayesian estimator to a simple closed form for a large class of such systems, the form for the most general case needs to be attacked by the computer. Once a table is generated for this form, researchers will have a numerical form for the general solution. With this, the corresponding probability statements about the reliability of a system can be made in the most general setting. Note that the utilization of uniform Bayesian priors represents a worst case scenario in the sense that as researchers incorporate more expert opinion into the model, they will be able to improve the strength of the probability calculations.
Circumstellar shells resolved in the IRAS survey data. I - Data processing procedure, results, and confidence tests
We have examined the IRAS 60 and 100 micron survey data covering 512 evolved stars and young planetary nebulae for evidence of spatially resolved structure. A simple model, consisting of a central unresolved source surrounded by a resolved isothermal shell, was fitted to the data for each star. Seventy-six stars were found to be resolved in the 60 micron data. Tests have been performed to verify that the extended structure seen is not an artifact of the data-processing algorithm.
Confidence range estimate of extended source imagery acquisition algorithms via computer simulations
Spatial acquisition using the sun-lit Earth as a beacon source provides several advantages over active beacon-based systems for deep-space optical communication systems. However, since the angular extend of the Earth image is large compared to the laser beam divergence, the acquisition subsystem must be capable of resolving the image to derive the proper pointing orientation. The algorithms used must be capable of deducing the receiver location given the blurring introduced by the imaging optics and the large Earth albedo fluctuation. Furthermore, because of the complexity of modelling the Earth and the tracking algorithms, an accurate estimate of the algorithm accuracy can only be made via simulation using realistic Earth images. An image simulator was constructed for this purpose, and the results of the simulation runs are reported.