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Crop-weather models developed for wheat from an assembled base of approximately 45 years of climatic records and historic wheat yield and production data at the stratum level are described. Utilization of meteorological data acquired by the NOAA satellites is discussed.
Since for maximum range a supersonic transport must cruise near its maximum Mach number, accurate flight control is needed, especially when severe atmospheric transients are encountered. This paper describes atmospheric transients that have been encountered by the XB-70, YF-12, and Concorde aircraft during supersonic flights and the ensuing responses of the aircraft propulsion and flight control systems. It was found that atmospheric conditions affected these supersonic cruise vehicles in much the same way, with minor differences according to the type of propulsion and flight control system. Onboard sensors are sufficiently accurate to provide data on the atmosphere, including turbulence over the route, that are accurate enough for entry in the climatic record and for use as inputs to the control systems. Nominal atmospheric transients can be satisfactorily controlled, but some problems remain for extreme cases.
A possible relationship between large scale changes in global ice volume, variations in the earth's magnetic field, and short term climatic cooling is investigated through a study of the geomagnetic and climatic records of the past 300,000 years. The calculations suggest that redistribution of the Earth's water mass can cause rotational instabilities which lead to geomagnetic excursions; these magnetic variations in turn may lead to short-term coolings through upper atmosphere effects. Such double coincidences of magnetic excursions and sudden coolings at times of ice volume changes have occurred at 13,500, 30,000, 110,000, and 135,000 YBP.
Collection of ground information and supportive materials are absolutely necessary to verify and substantiate data extracted by the interpretation process regardless of sensor type and scale. Field observation and notes, the use of topographic and thematic maps, crop calendars, and climate records are just four examples of supportive materials which often are used in conjunction with remotely sensed materials. Illustration of this integrated multisensor approach is provided by four examples from the March, 1978 Santa Maria LANDSAT C Conference and Workshop. Four distinctive window sites were selected to demonstrate the usefulness of remotely sensed materials to solve geographic problems.
Activity related modulation of the solar constant can have practical consequences for climate only if storage is involved, as opposed to a detailed balance between sunspot blocking and facular reemission. Four empirical tests are considered that might distinguish between these opposing interpretations: monochromatic measurements of positive and negative flux; comparison of modelled and measured irradiance variations; the interpretation of secular trends in irradiance data; and the direct test of an anticipated signal in climate records of surface air temperature. The yet unanswered question of the role of faculae as possible reemitters of blocked radiation precludes a definitive answer, although other tests suggest their role to be minor, and that storage and an 11 year modulation is implicated. A crucial test is the behavior of the secular trend in irradiance in the declining years of the present activity cycle.
The first direct determination of the lunar distance in the Precambrian is presented. A 23.3 + or - 0.3 yr periodicity preserved in 2500 Myr BP Australian banded iron formation is interpreted as reflecting the climatic influence of the lunar nodal tide, which has been detected with its modern 18.6-yr periodicity in some modern climate records. The lunar distance at 2500 Myr BP would then have been about 52 earth radii. The implied history of precambrian tidal friction is in accord with both the more recent paleontological evidence and the long-term stability of the lunar orbit. The length of the Milankovitch cycles that modulate the ice ages today also evolve with the earth-moon system. Their detection in the Precambrian sedimentary record would then permit an independent determination of the lunar distance.
Variations in insolation are examined in terms of beat relationships. The relations between eccentricity periods, precessional parameters, and obliquity periods are analyzed. Beat periods are calculated and compared with orbital periodicities from Berger's (1978) series expansions. It is noted that the data, which correlate eccentricity, obliquity, and precessional-parameter periods, are applicable to the study of orbital periodicities in time-series analyses of long-term climatic records.
An algorithm was developed for calculating simultaneously SSTs, SWs, and TAUs on a global basis using only the 6.6 and 18 GHz channels of the SMMR. Samples of the retrievals were calculated in each of eight of the SMMR years and found to produce independent results, consistent with weather charts and climatic records, even in the presence of high winds. Another new algorithm for calculating high-latitude scalar winds from Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) data was devised and tuned with surface observations from a number of documented Arctic Polar Low events. The algorithm utilizes the horizontally and vertically polarized radiances from the 0.8 and 1.7 cm wavelength channels of the ten-channel SMMR to retrieve near surface oceanic scalar winds and cloud water in the column, and takes advantage of the relatively small fluctuations in atmospheric water vapor at high latitudes. An advantage of this algorithm for high latitude winds from SMMR over the global algorithm is an inherently better spatial resolution as a result of the shorter wavelengths used.
A number of pre-Pleistocene climate records exhibit significant fluctuations at the 100,000-year (100-ky) eccentricity period, before the time of such fluctuations in global ice volume. The origin of these fluctuations has been obscure. Results reported here from a modeling study suggest that such a response can occur over low-altitude land areas involved in monsoon fluctuations. The twice yearly passage of the sun across the equator and the seasonal timing of perihelion interact to increase both 100-ky and 400-ky power in the modeled temperature field. The magnitude of the temperature response is sufficiently large to leave an imprint on the geologic record, and simulated fluctuations resemble those found in records of Triassic lake levels.
It is widely believed that the Martian polar layered deposits record climate variations over at least the last 10 to 100 m.y., but the details of the processes involved and their relative roles in layer formation and evolution remain obscure. Weathering of the Martian layered deposits by sublimation of water ice can account for the thermal inertias, water vapor abundances, and geologic relationships observed in the Martian polar regions. The nonvolatile components of the layered deposits appears to consist mainly of bright red dust, with small amounts of dark dust. Dark dust, perhaps similar to the magnetic material found at the Viking Lander sites, may preferentially form filamentary residue particles upon weathering of the deposits. Once eroded, these particles may saltate to form the dark dunes found in both polar regions. This scenario for the origin and evolution of the dark material within the polar layered deposits is consistent with the available imaging and thermal data. Further experimental measurements of the thermophysical properties of magnetite and maghemite under Martian conditions are needed to better test this hypothesis.
The primary goals of the Mars Polar Pathfinder (MPP) Discovery Mission are to characterize the composition and structure of Mars' north polar ice cap, and to determine whether a climate record may be preserved in layers of ice and dust. The MPP would land as close as possible to the geographic north pole of Mars and use a set of instruments similar to those used by glaciologists to study polar ice caps on Earth: a radar sounder, a drill/borescope system, and a thermal probe. The drill/borescope system will drill approximately 50 cm into the surface and image the sides of the hole at 10 micron resolution for compositional and stratigraphic analysis. Several uncertainties have guided the development of this instrument, and they are discussed.
Continuous marine and ice-core proxy climate records indicate that the Earth's orbital geometry modulates long-term changes. Until recently, little direct evidence has been available to demonstrate correlations between Milankovitch cycles and large-scale terrestrial landforms produced during worldwide glaciations. In central Alaska large areas of loess and sand fill valleys and basins near major outwash streams. The streams themselves are bordered by sets of outwash terraces, and the terraces grade up valley into sets of moraines. The discovery of the Stampede tephra (approximately 175,000 yr ago) reworked within push moraines of the Lignite Creek glaciation suggests that this event correlates with the glaciation of marine isotope stage 6. A new occurrence of the Old Crow tephra (approximately 140,000 yr ago) on the surface of the oldest outwash terrace of the Tanana River, correlated with Delta glaciation, suggests this event also occurred at this time. The penultimate Healy glaciation apparently correlates with marine isotope stage 4, while radiocarbon dates indicate the latest Pleistocene moraines correlate with marine isotope stage 2. Recognition of the importance of orbital forcing to the cyclical formation of glacial landforms and landscapes can help in interpretations of remotely sensed glacial and proglacial land forms.
Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) is an investigation to examine the role of cloud/radiation feedback in the Earth's climate system. The CERES broadband scanning radiometers are an improved version of the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) radiometers. The CERES instruments will fly on several National Aeronautics and Space Administration Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites starting in 1998 and extending over at least 15 years. The CERES science investigations will provide data to extend the ERBE climate record of top-of-atmosphere shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative fluxes CERES will also combine simultaneous cloud property data derived using EOS narrowband imagers to provide a consistent set of cloud/radiation data, including SW and LW radiative fluxes at the surface and at several selected levels within the atmosphere. CERES data are expected to provide top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes with a factor of 2 to 3 less error than the ERBE data Estimates of radiative fluxes at the surface and especially within the atmosphere will be a much greater challenge but should also show significant improvements over current capabilities.
The southern hemisphere stratospheric winter of 2002 was the most unusual winter yet observed in the southern hemisphere climate record. Temperatures near the edge of the Antarctic polar vortex were considerably warmer than normal over the entire course of the winter. The polar night jet was considerably weaker than normal, and was displaced more poleward than has been observed in previous winters. These record high temperatures and weak jet resulted from a series of wave events that took place over the course of the winter. The first large event occurred on 15 May, and the final warming occurred on 25 October. The propagation of these wave events from the troposphere is diagnosed from time series of Eliassen-Palm flux vectors. The wave events tended to occur irregularly over the course of the winter, and pre-conditioned the polar night jet for the extremely large wave event of 22 September. This large wave event resulted in the first ever observed major stratospheric warming in the southern hemisphere. This wave event split the Antarctic ozone hole. The combined effect of the wave events of the 2002 winter resulted in the smallest ozone hole observed since 1988.
Searching for evidence of life on Mars will probably require access to the subsurface. The Martian surface is bathed in ultraviolet radiation which decomposes organic compounds, destroying possible evidence for life. Also, experiments performed by the Viking Landers imply the presence of several strongly oxidizing compounds at the Martian surface that may also play a role in destroying organic compounds near the surface. While liquid water is unstable on the Martian surface, and ice is unstable at the surface at low latitudes, recent results from the Mars Odyssey Gamma Ray Spectrometer experiment indicate that water ice is widely distributed near the surface under a thin cover of dry soil. Organic compounds created by an ancient Martian biosphere might be preserved in such ice-rich layers. Furthermore, accessing the subsurface provides a way to identify unique stratigraphy such as small-scale layering associated with lacustrine sediments. Subsurface access might also provide new insights into the Mars climate record that may be preserved in the Polar Layered Deposits. Recognizing the importance of accessing the subsurface of Mars to the future scientific exploration of the planet, the Mars Surveyor 2007 Science Definition Team called for drilling beneath the surface soils. Subsurface measurements are also cited as high priority in by MEPAG. Recognizing the importance of accessing the Martian subsurface to search for life, the European Space Agency has incorporated a small automated burrowing device called a subsurface penetrometer or Mole onto the Beagle 2 lander planned for 2003 launch. This device, called the Planetary Underground Tool (PLUTO), is a pointed slender cylinder 2 cm wide and 28 cm long equipped with a small sampling device at the pointed end that collects samples and brings them to the surface for analysis. Drawing on the PLUTO design, we are developing a larger Mole carrying sensors for identifying mineralogy, organic compounds, and water.
CryoScout was proposed as a subsurface investigation of the stratigraphic climate record embedded in Mars North Polar cap. After landing on a gentle landscape in the midst of the mild summer season, CryoScout was to use the continuous polar sunlight to power the descent of a cryobot, a thermal probe, into the ice at a rate of about 1 m per day. CryoScout would probe deep enough into this time capsule to see the effects of planetary obliquity variations and discrete events such as dust storms or volcanic eruptions. By penetrating tens of meters of ice, the mission would explore at least one of the dominant "MOC layers" observed in exposed layered terrain.
The Earth continues to have a third of the ice that it had at the peak of the last ice age, although that ice continues to decrease, as it has, overall, for the past 18,000 years. Over the last 100 years, the retreat signal has been especially strong in ice shelves of the Arctic and along the Antarctic Peninsula, with a more mixed signal elsewhere. For instance, since the early 1990s the massive Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have thinned along the coasts but thickened in the interior, and since the late 1970s sea ice has decreased in the Arctic but increased (slightly) in the Antarctic. Major difficulties in the interpretations of the climate record come from the high interannual variability of most cryosphere components and the lack of consistent long-term global data records, the latter problem now being slowly remedied, in part, through satellite technology.
The value of Global Positioning Satellites (GPS) measurements to atmospheric science, space physics, and ocean science, is now emerging or showing a potential to play a major role in the evolving programs of NASA, NSF and NOAA. The objective of this communication is to identify and articulate the key scientific questions that are optimally, or perhaps uniquely, addressed by GPS or GPS-like observations, and discuss their relevance to existing or planned national Earth-science research programs. The GPS-based ocean reflection experiments performed to date have demonstrated the precision and spatial resolution suitable to altimetric applications that require higher spatial resolution and more frequent repeat than the current radar altimeter satellites. GPS radio occultation is promising as a climate monitoring tool because of its benchmark properties: its raw observable is based on extremely accurate timing measurements. GPS-derived temperature profiles can provide meaningful climate trend information over decadal time scales without the need for overlapping missions or mission-to-mission calibrations. By acquiring data as GPS satellites occult behind the Earth's limb, GPS also provides high vertical resolution information on the vertical structure of electron density with global coverage. New experimental techniques will create more comprehensive TEC maps by using signals reflected from the oceans and received in orbit. This communication will discuss a potential future GNSS Earth Observing System project which would deploy a constellation of satellites using GPS and GPS-like measurements, to obtain a) topography measurements based on GPS reflections with an accuracy and horizontal resolution suitable for eddy monitoring, and h) climate-records quality atmospheric temperature profiles. The constellation would also provide for measurements of ionospheric elec tron density. This is a good example of an interdisciplinary mission concept, with broad science objectives of high societal relevance, al l resting on common cost-effective technology.