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At least 127 records · Page 7

The Rate of Canopy Development Modulates the Link Between the Timing of Spring Leaf Emergence and Summer Moisture

Shifts in phenological timing have important implications for ecosystem processes, with spring leaf emergence as a dominant control of carbon, water, and energy cycling. Phenological events are predominantly determined by weather and climate, therefore dynamic in time and sensitive to climate feedbacks. Improving our understanding of how ecosystems respond to changes in phenological timing will enhance our ability to assess summer soil water availability, since the timing of spring leaf emergence may lead to soil moisture deficits later in the growing season. We leveraged data from five AmeriFlux towers in central and eastern United States to investigate the extent spring leaf emergence (i.e., start of spring, SoS ) influences rates at which forest canopies develop and how this impacts summer soil moisture ( θ JJA ) variability. Our results indicate that ecosystem processes, specifically gross primary production ( GPP ) and evapotranspiration ( ET ), exhibit compensatory responses to varying leaf emergence; with delayed spring-onset, the canopy developed more quickly, resulting in rapid GPP and ET increases, consistent across sites. Nonetheless, early SoS is a relatively good indicator for potential summer soil water deficits, particularly when it occurs together with meteorological conditions (i.e., lower-than-average precipitation, hot summer temperatures) that contribute to soil water deficits. When these meteorological conditions coincide with early SoS , θ JJA deficits are exacerbated. To the extent that these extreme conditions occur more frequently under future climate scenarios, the dynamics of spring phenology and hydroclimate may play an increasingly important role in portending the likelihood of summer water deficits, which are projected to become more severe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental Whole-Ecosystem Warming Enables Novel Estimation of Snow Cover and Depth Sensitivities to Temperature, and Quantification of the Snow-Albedo Feedback Effect

Climate change is reducing the amount, duration, and extent of snow across high-latitude ecosystems. But, in landscapes where persistent winter snow cover develops, experimental platforms to specifically investigate interactions between warming and changes in snowpack, and impacts on ecosystem processes, have been lacking. We leveraged a whole-ecosystem warming experiment in a boreal peatland forest to quantify how snow duration, depth, and fractional cover vary with warming of up to +9°C. We found that every snow-related quantity we examined declined precipitously as the amount of warming increased. The importance of deep, continuous snow cover for moderating shallow soil temperature is highlighted by an increase in soil temperature variance and the frequency of short-duration freeze-thaw cycles in the warmer plots. We used a paired-plot approach to estimate the magnitude of the snow-albedo feedback effect, and demonstrate that albedo-driven warming linked to reduced snow cover varies between December (+0.4°C increase in maximum air temperature) and March (+1.2°C increase) because of differences in insolation. Overall, results show that even modest future warming will have profound impacts on northern winters and cold-season ecosystem processes. Plot-level data from this warming experiment, and emergent relationships between warming and quantities related to snow cover and duration, could be of enormous value for testing and improving the representation of snow processes in simulation models, especially under future climate scenarios that are outside of the range of historically observed variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Decomposing a Compound Flood Event in an Urban Pacific Northwest Estuary: Primary Drivers and Projections for the Future

The Duwamish River Estuary (DRE) of Washington is prone to compound flooding during atmospheric river (AR) events. The processes contributing to such flooding (coastal and fluvial) have remained opaque to municipalities that are increasingly impacted. Here, we conduct a suite of coupled atmosphere-hydrology-ocean model simulations with varying forcing combinations (tide, surge, and/or river discharge) to identify the primary drivers of compound flooding during a recent AR event. We also test year 2,100 climate forcing to project how flooding and drivers may change in the future for the same event. We identify a clear distinction between dynamics in the downstream, engineered portion of the DRE compared to the upstream, “natural” river. Downstream, tides dominate water levels but contributions from storm surge and nonlinear tide-surge interaction elevate tide-only high waters from no flooding to major flooding. Upstream, total water levels during the event are ∼6 cm higher than downstream due to an increasing influence of river discharge over surge and tides. Notably, nonlinear surge-river and tide-river interactions act to reduce upstream water levels up to 50% compared to estimates which linearly sum tides, surge, and river, likely reducing flood vulnerability. Under two future climate scenarios: one with only sea level rise (SLR) and another with SLR plus atmospheric warming, we find little change in mechanism contributions to water levels. Expanded flooding in both cases is largely due to SLR, as a ∼50% increase to river discharge under the warming scenario has no impact downstream and marginally increases (∼3 cm) water level upstream.

atmospheric river↗

Numerical Water Tracers in the Atmospheric Component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model: Implementation and Changes in Moisture Origin

Numerical water tracers are implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2. Simulations performed with the water‐tag‐enabled model for both pre‐industrial and future greenhouse gas concentrations reveal a marked increase in the role of mid‐latitude and southern subtropical regions as exporters of atmospheric moisture—to the extratropical upper troposphere and the tropical free troposphere. For the latter, the northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone increases cross‐hemispheric transport of subtropical water vapor to the Northern Hemisphere. In the polar regions, most of the lower tropospheric moistening instead arises from increases in local evaporation. These findings illustrate the utility of the water tags, underscore critical changes in global hydrologic cycle, and provide insight into atmospheric dynamics under future climate scenarios. For applications when a global grid is desired, we additionally propose a novel statistical reconstruction, based on copula modeling, of the joint distribution of origin of water vapor, which reduces the number of tracers from order $\mathcal{O}\left({n}^{2}\right)$to order $\mathcal{O}(n)$, substantially ameliorating the considerable computational cost of water tracers. This statistical reconstruction is particularly beneficial to the interpretation of the relationship between latitude and longitude of origin of moisture over the tropical oceans and in the lower troposphere over land.

copula modeling↗

Metaproteomics-informed stoichiometric modeling reveals the responses of wetland microbial communities to oxygen and sulfate exposure

Abstract Climate changes significantly impact greenhouse gas emissions from wetland soil. Specifically, wetland soil may be exposed to oxygen (O 2 ) during droughts, or to sulfate (SO 4 2- ) as a result of sea level rise. How these stressors – separately and together – impact microbial food webs driving carbon cycling in the wetlands is still not understood. To investigate this, we integrated geochemical analysis, proteogenomics, and stoichiometric modeling to characterize the impact of elevated SO 4 2- and O 2 levels on microbial methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. The results uncovered the adaptive responses of this community to changes in SO 4 2- and O 2 availability and identified altered microbial guilds and metabolic processes driving CH 4 and CO 2 emissions. Elevated SO 4 2- reduced CH 4 emissions, with hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis more suppressed than acetoclastic. Elevated O 2 shifted the greenhouse gas emissions from CH 4 to CO 2 . The metabolic effects of combined SO 4 2- and O 2 exposures on CH 4 and CO 2 emissions were similar to those of O 2 exposure alone. The reduction in CH 4 emission by increased SO 4 2- and O 2 was much greater than the concomitant increase in CO 2 emission. Thus, greater SO 4 2- and O 2 exposure in wetlands is expected to reduce the aggregate warming effect of CH 4 and CO 2 . Metaproteomics and stoichiometric modeling revealed a unique subnetwork involving carbon metabolism that converts lactate and SO 4 2- to produce acetate, H 2 S, and CO 2 when SO 4 2- is elevated under oxic conditions. This study provides greater quantitative resolution of key metabolic processes necessary for the prediction of CH 4 and CO 2 emissions from wetlands under future climate scenarios.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing

Lake ecosystems are jeopardized by the impacts of climate change on ice seasonality and water temperatures. Yet historical simulations have not been used to formally attribute changes in lake ice and temperature to anthropogenic drivers. In addition, future projections of these properties are limited to individual lakes or global simulations from single lake models. Here we uncover the human imprint on lakes worldwide using hindcasts and projections from five lake models. Reanalysed trends in lake temperature and ice cover in recent decades are extremely unlikely to be explained by pre-industrial climate variability alone. Ice-cover trends in reanalysis are consistent with lake model simulations under historical conditions, providing attribution of lake changes to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, lake temperature, ice thickness and duration scale robustly with global mean air temperature across future climate scenarios (+0.9 °C °C air –1 , –0.033 m °C air –1 and –9.7 d °C air –1 , respectively). Furthermore, these impacts would profoundly alter the functioning of lake ecosystems and the services they provide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GODEEEP-hydro: Historical and projected power system ready hydropower data for the United States

Hydropower is a critical electricity resource in the United States which, in addition to low-cost electricity generation, provides valuable ancillary grid services, and supports the integration of nondispatchable weather-dependent resources (e.g., wind and solar). Despite its value to the grid, there are very few comprehensive datasets available from which to study both historical and future impacts of climate, weather driven energy droughts, and integration of other weather driven generation. In this paper, we present a hydropower generation dataset covering 1,452 hydroelectric plants in the contiguous U.S. The dataset contains monthly and weekly hydropower generation estimates for both historical (1982–2019) and future (2020–2099) periods which includes 4 future climate scenarios. In addition, this dataset provides weekly and monthly constraints such as minimum and maximum power which are particularly useful in power system models which are used to study grid reliability, transmission planning and capacity expansion.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Rubisco activity and activation state dictate photorespiratory plasticity in Betula papyrifera acclimated to future climate conditions

Plant metabolism faces a challenge of investing enough enzymatic capacity to a pathway without overinvestment. As it takes energy and resources to build, operate, and maintain enzymes, there are benefits and drawbacks to accurately matching capacity to the pathway influx. The relationship between functional capacity and physiological load could be explained through symmorphosis, which would quantitatively match enzymatic capacity to pathway influx. Alternatively, plants could maintain excess enzymatic capacity to manage unpredictable pathway influx. In this study, we use photorespiration as a case study to investigate these two hypotheses in Betula papyrifera. This involves altering photorespiratory influx by manipulating the growth environment, via changes in CO 2 concentration and temperature, to determine how photorespiratory capacity acclimates to environmental treatments. Surprisingly, the results from these measurements indicate that there is no plasticity in photorespiratory capacity in B. papyrifera, and that a fixed capacity is maintained under each growth condition. The fixed capacity is likely due to the existence of reserve capacity in the pathway that manages unpredictable photorespiratory influx in dynamic environments. Additionally, we found that B. papyrifera had a constant net carbon assimilation under each growth condition due to an adjustment of functional rubisco activity driven by changes in activation state. These results provide insight into the acclimation ability and limitations of B. papyrifera to future climate scenarios currently predicted in the next century.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Shifts in rain-snow partitioning drive faster water transit times in the US Pacific Northwest

Water transit times strongly influence water quality, temperature, and seasonal hydrologic response of river systems. How water transit times may shift under future climates remains unconstrained, especially in mountainous regions experiencing rapid snowpack declines. Here, we estimated historical (2006–2013) and future (2086–2093) water transit times in five headwater catchments within the U.S. Pacific Northwest using sequential precipitation input tagging within the Water Tracer enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic model. Our results indicate water transit times are 18% (35–64 days) faster on average under the Representative Carbon Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate scenario due to shifts in rain-snow partitioning, with higher fractions of younger water in the wet season and older water in the dry season. These results suggest shifts in rain-snow partitioning in snowmelt dominated catchments of the Pacific Northwest will shorten water transit times leading to likely impacts on regional water quality, temperature, and hydrologic seasonality.

Butler, Zachariah [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, ↗

Saccharomycotina yeasts defy long-standing macroecological patterns

The Saccharomycotina yeasts (“yeasts” hereafter) are a fungal clade of scientific, economic, and medical significance. Yeasts are highly ecologically diverse, found across a broad range of environments in every biome and continent on earth; however, little is known about what rules govern the macroecology of yeast species and their range limits in the wild. Here, we trained machine learning models on 12,816 terrestrial occurrence records and 96 environmental variables to infer global distribution maps at ~1 km2 resolution for 186 yeast species (~15% of described species from 75% of orders) and to test environmental drivers of yeast biogeography and macroecology. We found that predicted yeast diversity hotspots occur in mixed montane forests in temperate climates. Diversity in vegetation type and topography were some of the greatest predictors of yeast species richness, suggesting that microhabitats and environmental clines are key to yeast diversity. We further found that range limits in yeasts are significantly influenced by carbon niche breadth and range overlap with other yeast species, with carbon specialists and species in high-diversity environments exhibiting reduced geographic ranges. Finally, yeasts contravene many long-standing macroecological principles, including the latitudinal diversity gradient, temperature-dependent species richness, and a positive relationship between latitude and range size (Rapoport’s rule). These results unveil how the environment governs the global diversity and distribution of species in the yeast subphylum. These high-resolution models of yeast species distributions will facilitate the prediction of economically relevant and emerging pathogenic species under current and future climate scenarios.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Empirical estimation of weather-driven yield shocks using biophysical characteristics for U.S. rainfed and irrigated maize, soybeans, and winter wheat

Agricultural yields are highly susceptible to changes in weather system patterns, including both annual and sub-annual changes in temperature and precipitation. Understanding the impacts of future changes in meteorological variables on crop yields have been widely studied in both empirical and process-based models. This work presents a structural econometric approach that combines historical weather data with information about the biophysical growth cycles of maize, winter wheat, and soy to predict the year-to-year yield responses for rainfed crops. Modeled soil moisture and temperature are taken as key predictors, which allows testing the fitted rainfed model’s ability to predict irrigated yields by assuming irrigation produces the numerically optimal level of soil moisture. This approach is grounded in known biophysical processes, which improves confidence in the model predictions. It produces estimates of interannual variability in yields, which enable study of the effects of extreme events on agricultural productivity. Finally, it enables prediction of the potential impacts of changing weather patterns on irrigated crops in areas that are currently primarily rainfed. We present the results of the empirical model, fitted with rainfed data; out-of-sample validation on irrigated crops; and projections of yield shocks under multiple future climate scenarios. Under a bias-corrected GFDL RCP8.5 scenario, this approach predicts average yield change, relative to 2006-2020 average yields, across U.S. counties in the 2040-2060 period of -16.9% and -13.4% for rainfed and irrigated maize, of -19.1% and -18.4% for rainfed and irrigated soy, and of -4.0% and -2.0% for rainfed and irrigated winter wheat. And in the 2070-2090 period of -30.3% and -28.8 % for rainfed and irrigated maize, of -33.1% and -32.8% for rainfed and irrigated soy, and of -6.5% and -5.2%for rainfed and irrigated winter wheat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Linking repeat lidar with Landsat products for large scale quantification of fire-induced permafrost thaw settlement in interior Alaska

The permafrost–fire–climate system has been a hotspot in research for decades under a warming climate scenario. Surface vegetation plays a dominant role in protecting permafrost from summer warmth, thus, any alteration of vegetation structure, particularly following severe wildfires, can cause dramatic top–down thaw. A challenge in understanding this is to quantify fire-induced thaw settlement at large scales (>1000 km 2 ). In this study, we explored the potential of using Landsat products for a large-scale estimation of fire-induced thaw settlement across a well-studied area representative of ice-rich lowland permafrost in interior Alaska. Six large fires have affected ~1250 km 2 of the area since 2000. We first identified the linkage of fires, burn severity, and land cover response, and then developed an object-based machine learning ensemble approach to estimate fire-induced thaw settlement by relating airborne repeat lidar data to Landsat products. The model delineated thaw settlement patterns across the six fire scars and explained ~65% of the variance in lidar-detected elevation change. Our results indicate a combined application of airborne repeat lidar and Landsat products is a valuable tool for large scale quantification of fire-induced thaw settlement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Soil incubation methods lead to large differences in inferred methane production temperature sensitivity

Abstract Quantifying the temperature sensitivity of methane (CH 4 ) production is crucial for predicting how wetland ecosystems will respond to climate warming. Typically, the temperature sensitivity (often quantified as a Q 10 value) is derived from laboratory incubation studies and then used in biogeochemical models. However, studies report wide variation in incubation-inferred Q 10 values, with a large portion of this variation remaining unexplained. Here we applied observations in a thawing permafrost peatland (Stordalen Mire) and a well-tested process-rich model ( ecosys ) to interpret incubation observations and investigate controls on inferred CH 4 production temperature sensitivity. We developed a field-storage-incubation modeling approach to mimic the full incubation sequence, including field sampling at a particular time in the growing season, refrigerated storage, and laboratory incubation, followed by model evaluation. We found that CH 4 production rates during incubation are regulated by substrate availability and active microbial biomass of key microbial functional groups, which are affected by soil storage duration and temperature. Seasonal variation in substrate availability and active microbial biomass of key microbial functional groups led to strong time-of-sampling impacts on CH 4 production. CH 4 production is higher with less perturbation post-sampling, i.e. shorter storage duration and lower storage temperature. We found a wide range of inferred Q 10 values (1.2–3.5), which we attribute to incubation temperatures, incubation duration, storage duration, and sampling time. We also show that Q 10 values of CH 4 production are controlled by interacting biological, biochemical, and physical processes, which cause the inferred Q 10 values to differ substantially from those of the component processes. Terrestrial ecosystem models that use a constant Q 10 value to represent temperature responses may therefore predict biased soil carbon cycling under future climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating agrivoltaics into smallholder farming systems to enhance food production and irrigation efficiency under climate stress

Smallholder agricultural growers and entrepreneurs (SAGE) have a crucial role in sustaining food security; their cultivation accounts for roughly 30% of global crop production and contributes substantially to the diversity and nutritional value of food systems. Despite their awareness of and flexibility to adapt to productivity challenges, SAGE communities remain highly vulnerable to heat and drought stress, which threatens both livelihoods and local food availability. While intensification and adaptive farm practices offer partial resilience, their capacity to buffer sudden climatic extremes remains limited. Agrivoltaics, the dual use of land for solar electricity generation and crop cultivation, has emerged as a promising strategy to enhance agricultural productivity and its resilience to climate extremes by altering microclimatic conditions. Although proven effective in hot and arid regions, the benefits of agrivoltaics for temperate climates and small-scale farms remain minimally explored. To address this gap, we evaluated the performance of a small-scale agrivoltaics system in a temperate climate for high-value crops, including leafy vegetables and garlic. We investigate whether the system can (i) protect crops during extreme heat events and (ii) enhance productivity and reduce irrigation requirements during hot and dry periods unsuitable for conventional production. Our findings provide evidence that agrivoltaics is a climate-resilient farming strategy under current and projected climate scenarios, capable of improving yields (by +43% to +127% for the leafy vegetables grown) and reducing water consumption, while creating complementary economic opportunities through decentralized energy generation systems. This work supports the integration of agrivoltaics into small-scale agricultural systems as an innovative pathway to strengthen food security, bolster farmer livelihoods, and enable multiple co-benefits from broader solar energy adoption.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Weather Sensitive High Spatio-Temporal Resolution Transportation Electric Load Profiles For Multiple Decarbonization Pathways

Electrification of transport compounded with climate change will transform hourly load profiles and their response to weather. We present a novel approach to generating hourly electric load profiles that considers charging strategies and evolving sensitivity to temperature. The approach consists of downscaling annual state-scale sectoral load projections from the multisectoral Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) into hourly electric load profiles leveraging high resolution climate and population datasets. Profiles are developed and evaluated at the Balancing Authority scale, with a 5-year increment until 2050 over the Western U.S. Interconnect for multiple decarbonization pathways and climate scenarios. The datasets are readily available for production cost model analysis. Our open source approach is transferable to other regions.

Decarbonization, tranportation, Electric vehicle c↗

Contrasting Carbon–Water–Energy Dynamics in Perennial and Annual Bioenergy Agroecosystems Using Eddy Covariance and Interpretable Machine Learning

Understanding how agroecosystems respond to environmental variability is fundamental to predicting productivity and sustainability under a changing climate. We analyzed 55 site-years of high-frequency eddy covariance observations from five agroecosystems—two perennial grasses (miscanthus and switchgrass), two annual rotation systems (maize–soybean and sorghum–soybean), and a restored native prairie—to examine ecosystem-scale carbon, water, and energy fluxes. Using an interpretable machine-learning framework with regression tree ensembles, Shapley Additive Explanations, and Accumulated Local Effects, we quantified how environmental and temporal factors regulate gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), water-use efficiency, and the Bowen ratio. Perennials exhibited stronger physiological buffering and maintained fluxes across a broader range of temperature and moisture conditions, reflecting deeper rooting and persistent canopy cover. Annuals, in contrast, showed greater short-term variability and stronger coupling to atmospheric demand, with GPP and ET declining rapidly under low humidity or soil moisture. Differences in temperature sensitivity of Bowen ratio further revealed that perennials sustained proportionally greater sensible heat flux under cool conditions, whereas annuals exhibited constrained energy exchange when evaporative demand was low. Together, these results demonstrate that crop life cycle and canopy structure are fundamental determinants of ecosystem-scale carbon–water–energy coupling. By integrating long-term flux observations with interpretable machine learning, this study identifies the environmental drivers that shape agroecosystem function and highlights how conversion from annual to perennial feedstocks can enhance climatic resilience and alter land–atmosphere energy feedbacks. These findings provide a data-driven basis for improving crop and Earth-system models and for guiding bioenergy landscape design under future climate scenarios.

Accumulated Local Effects↗

Convergent evolution of tree hydraulic traits in Amazonian habitats: implications for community assemblage and vulnerability to drought

Amazonian droughts are increasing in frequency and severity. However, little is known about how this may influence species-specific vulnerability to drought across different ecosystem types. We measured 16 functional traits for 16 congeneric species from six families and eight genera restricted to floodplain, swamp, white-sand or plateau forests of Central Amazonia. We investigated whether habitat distributions can be explained by species hydraulic strategies, and if habitat specialists differ in their vulnerability to embolism that would make water transport difficult during drought periods. We found strong functional differences among species. Nonflooded species had higher wood specific gravity and lower stomatal density, whereas flooded species had wider vessels, and higher leaf and xylem hydraulic conductivity. The P 50 values (water potential at 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity) of nonflooded species were significantly more negative than flooded species. However, we found no differences in hydraulic safety margin among species, suggesting that all trees may be equally likely to experience hydraulic failure during severe droughts. Water availability imposes a strong selection leading to differentiation of plant hydraulic strategies among species and may underlie patterns of adaptive radiation in many tropical tree genera. Our results have important implications for modeling species distribution and resilience under future climate scenarios.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-objective optimization of root phenotypes for nutrient capture using evolutionary algorithms

Root phenotypes are avenues to the development of crop cultivars with improved nutrient capture, which is an important goal for global agriculture. The fitness landscape of root phenotypes is highly complex and multidimensional. It is difficult to predict which combinations of traits (phene states) will create the best performing integrated phenotypes in various environments. Brute force methods to map the fitness landscape by simulating millions of phenotypes in multiple environments are computationally challenging. Evolutionary optimization algorithms may provide more efficient avenues to explore high dimensional domains such as the root phenotypic space. We coupled the three-dimensional functional–structural plant model, SimRoot, to the Borg Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm (MOEA) and the evolutionary search over several generations facilitated the identification of optimal root phenotypes balancing trade-offs across nutrient uptake, biomass accumulation, and root carbon costs in environments varying in nutrient availability. Our results show that several combinations of root phenes generate optimal integrated phenotypes where performance in one objective comes at the cost of reduced performance in one or more of the remaining objectives, and such combinations differed for mobile and non-mobile nutrients and for maize (a monocot) and bean (a dicot). Functional–structural plant models can be used with multi-objective optimization to identify optimal root phenotypes under various environments, including future climate scenarios, which will be useful in developing the more resilient, efficient crops urgently needed in global agriculture.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗