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At least 127 records · Page 7

Assessing the cloud radiative bias at Macquarie Island in the ACCESS-AM2 model

Abstract. As a long-standing problem in climate models, large positive shortwave radiation biases exist at the surface over the Southern Ocean, impacting the accurate simulation of sea surface temperature, atmospheric circulation, and precipitation. Underestimations of low-level cloud fraction and liquid water content are suggested to predominantly contribute to these radiation biases. Most model evaluations for radiation focus on summer and rely on satellite products, which have their own limitations. In this work, we use surface-based observations at Macquarie Island to provide the first long-term, seasonal evaluation of both downwelling surface shortwave and longwave radiation in the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Atmosphere-only Model version 2 (ACCESS-AM2) over the Southern Ocean. The capacity of the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) product to simulate radiation is also investigated. We utilize the novel lidar simulator, the Automatic Lidar and Ceilometer Framework (ALCF), and all-sky cloud camera observations of cloud fraction to investigate how radiation biases are influenced by cloud properties. Overall, we find an overestimation of +9.5±33.5 W m−2 for downwelling surface shortwave radiation fluxes and an underestimation of -2.3±13.5 W m−2 for downwelling surface longwave radiation in ACCESS-AM2 in all-sky conditions, with more pronounced shortwave biases of +25.0±48.0 W m−2 occurring in summer. CERES presents an overestimation of +8.0±18.0 W m−2 for the shortwave and an underestimation of -12.1±12.2 W m−2 for the longwave in all-sky conditions. For the cloud radiative effect (CRE) biases, there is an overestimation of +4.8±28.0 W m−2 in ACCESS-AM2 and an underestimation of -7.9±20.9 W m−2 in CERES. An overestimation of downwelling surface shortwave radiation is associated with an underestimated cloud fraction and low-level cloud occurrence. We suggest that modeled cloud phase is also having an impact on the radiation biases. Our results show that the ACCESS-AM2 model and CERES product require further development to reduce these radiation biases not just in shortwave and in all-sky conditions, but also in longwave and in clear-sky conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding the Spatial Organization of Simultaneous Heavy Precipitation Events Over the Conterminous United States

We introduce the idea of simultaneous heavy precipitation events (SHPEs) to understand whether extreme precipitation has a spatial organization manifested as specified tracks or contiguous fields with inherent scaling relationships. For this purpose, we created a database of SHPEs using ground-based precipitation observations recorded by the daily Global Historical Climatology Network across the conterminous United States during 1900–2014. SHPEs are examined for their seasonality, spatial manifestation, orientation, and areal extent. We quantified the spatial distribution of the centroids and principal axes of SHPEs and their quasi-elliptical manifestations, azimuthal orientations, and areal extents on the ground. Four seasons, December-January-February (DJF), March-April-May (MAM),June-July-August (JJA), and September-October-November (SON) are considered to examine the spatial patterns and associated large-scale atmospheric circulations. Results indicate that there are 54, 58, 103, and204 SHPEs in DJF, MAM, JJA, and SON seasons, and their longest stretches range on average between 650and 1,600, between 850 and 1,500, between 950 and 1,550, and between 750 and 1,450 km, respectively. SHPEs in the DJF, MAM, and JJA seasons occur mostly over the Pacific coast and central and midwestern United States, respectively. The atmospheric circulation patterns and mechanisms of precipitable water vapor and moisture transport in the atmosphere are also discussed in relation to these SHPEs. Power laws explain SHPEs' underlying area scaling behavior in all the four seasons, with stronger evidence in DJF and MAM. A seasonal spatial risk model is developed to predict the likelihood of SHPEs. Quantifying the characteristics of SHPEs and modeling their footprints can improve the projections of flood risk and understanding of damages to interconnected infrastructure systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of Large-Scale Urbanization and Irrigation on Summer Precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States

This study investigates how urbanization and irrigation in the United States east of the Rocky Mountains affect summer precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic region (MAR) using convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations with/without urbanization or irrigation. In this work, a feature tracking algorithm is used to identify precipitation from mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), isolated deep convection (IDC), and non-convective systems (NC). Overall, urbanization suppresses all three types of precipitation in the MAR by reducing water vapor content and convective available potential energy, while irrigation enhances IDC and NC precipitation but suppresses MCS precipitation. Examination of the MCS and IDC initiation locations indicates that irrigation suppresses MAR precipitation that is produced by MCSs initiated in the Great Plains and Midwest (GP) but enhances MAR precipitation from MCSs initiated locally within the region. Irrigation induces a mid-level cyclonic circulation anomaly centering in the Southeast, hindering the eastward propagation and development of MCSs from the GP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mobile Sorption-based Thermal Battery for Harvesting Low-Temperature Geothermal Energy

Around 20% of the total primary energy in the United States is consumed for thermal demands of buildings such as space cooling, dehumidification, and space heating (EIA 2018). Low-temperature geothermal energy is abundant and can effectively satisfy buildings’ thermal demands. However, low-temperature geothermal energy is underutilized because the energy density of geothermal fluid is too low to justify the costs associated with transporting it between existing geothermal resources and buildings. The mobile sorption-based thermal battery (MSTB) system has been developed using three-phase (i.e., vapor–liquid, solution–solid, crystal) sorption technology to harvest low-temperature heat and store it with a much higher energy density than the geothermal fluid. The energy density of salt crystals is over six times higher than geothermal fluid, which makes long-distance transportation of salt crystals economically feasible. Salt crystals can be used to dehumidify air or provide space cooling in buildings, which alleviates peak demand on the electricity grid by offsetting electricity use for these end uses. This helps improve the grid’s stability and resilience. High-energy storage density, fast crystallization, and dissolution of salt crystals are all critical to the viability and performance of the MSTB system. Therefore, the design and operation of MSTB systems need to ensure effective generation and dissolution of salt crystals inside the MSTB. To achieve this target, this seedling project developed an experimental apparatus for characterizing the crystallization and dissolution processes. The energy density and potential latent cooling capacity of the MSTB are also evaluated based on lab test results. The crystallization results showed that the generated lithium chloride hydrate crystals are fluffy, the crystallization process lasts about 50 min, and the maximum crystal fraction (i.e., the ratio of crystal mass to the mass in the MSTB) can be up to 51.1% of the total mass in the MSTB at a solution flow rate of 1.58 g/s. The dissolution results show that the salt crystals in the MSTB can be fully dissolved within 15–28 min, based on different test conditions. Reducing solution flow rate and cooling water temperature can achieve increased energy storage density and crystal fraction. While the increase in the discharge rate (i.e., latent cooling capacity for dehumidifying air) is achieved by increasing flow rate and temperature of inlet diluted solution, as well as by using a pump for internal solution circulation, the discharge rate increases by 38%, from 0.95 kW to 1.31 kW. Compared with increasing the inlet solution flow rate, power consumption of salt solution transportation can be reduced by using a pump for internal solution circulation. The crystallization test results also showed that the maximum energy storage density is 981.8 kJ/kg, and the maximum discharge rate of the dissolution tests is ≤1.79 kW. Both are above the target values of 900 kJ/kg and 1.75 kW) for this project. The work reported here proves the feasibility and advancement of the MSTB system, which is helpful to the further study and improvement of the MSTB system.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

A Novel Method for Diagnosing Land–Atmosphere Coupling Sensitivity in a Single-Column Model

The response of boundary layer properties and cloudiness to changes in surface evaporative fraction (EF) is investigated in a single-column model to quantify the locally coupled impact of subgrid surface variations on the atmosphere during summer. Sensitive coupling days are defined when the model atmosphere exhibits large variations across a range of EFs centered on the analyzed value. Coupling sensitivity exists as both positive feedback (cloudiness increases with EF) and negative feedback (clouds increase with decreasing EF) regimes. The positive regime manifests in shallow convection situations, which are capped by a strengthened inversion and subsidence, restricting the vertical extent of convection to just above the boundary layer. Surfaces with larger EF (greater surface latent heat flux) can inject more moisture into the vertically confined system, lowering the cloud base and an increasing cloud liquid water path (LWP). Negative feedback regimes tend to manifest when large-scale deep convection, such as from mesoscale convective systems and fronts, is advected through the domain, where convection strengthens over surfaces with a lower EF (greater surface sensible heat flux). The invigoration of these systems by the land surface leads to an increase in LWP through strengthened updrafts and stronger coupling between the boundary layer and the free atmosphere. These results apply in the absence of heterogeneity-induced mesoscale circulations, providing a one-dimensional dynamical perspective on the effect of surface heterogeneity. Finally, this study provides a framework of intermediate complexity, lying between parcel theory and high-resolution coupled land–atmosphere modeling, and therefore isolates the relevant first-order processes in land–atmosphere interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AMOC stability and diverging response to Arctic sea ice decline in two climate models

This study compares the impacts of Arctic sea ice decline on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in two configurations of the Community Earth System Model with different horizontal resolution. In a suite of model experiments, we impose radiative imbalance at the ice surface, replicating a loss of sea ice cover comparable to that observed during 1979–2014, and we find dramatic differences in the AMOC response between the two models. In the lower-resolution configuration, the AMOC weakens by about one-third over the first 100 years, approaching a new quasi-equilibrium. By contrast, in the higher-resolution configuration, the AMOC weakens by ~10% during the first 20–30 years followed by a full recovery driven by invigorated deep water formation in the Labrador Sea and adjacent regions. We investigate these differences using a diagnostic AMOC stability indicator, which reflects the AMOC freshwater transport in and out of the basin and hence the strength of the basin-scale salt-advection feedback. This indicator suggests that the AMOC in the lower-resolution model is less stable and more sensitive to surface perturbations, as confirmed by hosing experiments mimicking Arctic freshening due to sea ice decline. Differences between the models’ mean states, including the Atlantic Ocean mean surface freshwater fluxes, control the differences in AMOC stability. Our results demonstrate that the AMOC stability indicator is indeed useful for evaluating AMOC sensitivity to perturbations. We emphasize that, despite the differences in the long-term adjustment, both models simulate a multidecadal AMOC weakening caused by Arctic sea ice decline, relevant to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Growing Freshwater Lens in the Arctic Ocean With Sustained Climate Warming Disrupts Marine Ecosystem Function

One of the most robust changes in the hydrological cycle predicted by Earth System Models (ESMs) during the remainder of 21st century is an increase in the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration (P-E) in arctic and boreal regions. We explore the long-term consequences of this change for marine ecosystems in the Arctic Ocean using the Community Earth System Model forced with a business as usual scenario of future greenhouse gas concentrations. We find that by the year 2300 increases in freshwater delivery considerably reduce Arctic Ocean surface salinity, creating a freshwater lens that has far-reaching impacts on marine biogeochemistry. The expanding freshwater lens limits vertical nutrient supply into the euphotic zone by enhancing vertical stratification and accelerating surface lateral mixing with surface waters in the North Atlantic, which become increasingly nutrient depleted from weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The resulting increase in nutrient stress reduces marine export production in the Arctic Ocean by 53% in 2300 relative to the 1990s and triggers a shift in community composition with small phytoplankton replacing diatoms. At the same time, the seasonal timing of export production undergoes a 2-month forward shift, with the peak advancing from July to May. This suggests that the threat to food webs and higher trophic levels may intensify after the year 2100 as gains in productivity from sea ice loss saturate and freshwater impacts on nutrient stress continue to strengthen. Our analysis highlights the critical importance of changing terrestrial hydrology and land-ocean coupling as drivers of long-term biogeochemical change in the Arctic Ocean and the necessity of multi-century climate change projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Optimized Parameterization of Sub‐Grid Scale Advection for Convection Permitting Models

Convection‐permitting models (CPMs) explicitly resolve deep convection yet under‐resolve the organized lateral exchanges among drafts and their environment that control entrainment/detrainment, precipitation efficiency, and mesoscale structure. In this work, we introduce the Optimized Advection Scheme (OAS), which introduces a small rotation of the Cartesian frame of reference for the horizontal winds relative to other variables used in advection that induces cross‐gradient transport to mimic under‐resolved convective mixing. The rotation angle is selected to minimize the Kullback–Leibler divergence between the simulated and satellite observed precipitation intensity distributions, yielding a physically consistent perturbation that is computationally inexpensive and portable. Optimized Advection Scheme is implemented in WRF and evaluated over Amazon (April 2014). It shifts precipitation–precipitable‐water joint distributions toward lighter rain, reduces overly intense rates, and improves mesoscale convective system (MCS) lifetime and propagation. Mechanistically, the added cross‐gradient transport promotes convective detrainment and environmental mixing, which cools and moistens the mid‐troposphere, weakens downward momentum transport, alleviates excessive downwelling shortwave biases, and warms the surface temperature. The optimized rotation angle yields comparable improvements at 4‐km and 1‐km grid spacing, demonstrating resolution‐independent benefits across the CPM gray zone. By targeting the dynamical root of under‐mixed convective circulations, rather than tuning model microphysics or closures, OAS delivers robust, scale‐aware improvements in precipitation statistics, cloud vertical structure, and characteristics of MCS (MCSs), offering a practical pathway to more reliable CPM simulations for weather and climate applications.

CPM↗

Environmental controls on isolated convection during the Amazonian wet season

The Amazon rainforest is a vital component of the global climate system, influencing the hydrological cycle and tropical circulation. However, understanding and modeling the evolution of convection in this region remain a scientific challenge. Here, we assess the environmental conditions associated with shallow, congestus, and isolated deep convection days during the wet season (December to April), employing measurements from the Green Ocean Amazon 2014–2015 (GoAmazon2014/5) experiment and large-scale wind fields from the constrained variational analysis. Composites of deep days show moister than average conditions below 3 km early in the morning. Analyzing the water budget at the surface through observations only, we estimated the water vapor convergence term as a residual of the water balance closure. Convergence remains nearly zero during the deep days until early afternoon (13:00 LST), when it becomes a dominant factor in the water budget. At 14:00 LST, the deep days experience a robust upward large-scale vertical velocity, especially above 4 km, which supports the shallow-to-deep convective transition occurring around 16:00–17:00 LST. In contrast, shallow and congestus days exhibit drier pre-convective conditions, along with diurnal water vapor divergence and large-scale subsidence that extend from the surface to the lower free troposphere. Moreover, afternoon precipitation exhibits the strongest linear correlation (0.6) with large-scale vertical velocity, nearly double the magnitude observed for other environmental factors, even moisture, at different levels and periods of the day. Precipitation also exhibits a moderate increase with low-level wind shear, while upper-level shear has a relatively minor negative impact on convection.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Environmental Evaluation of Gas Switching Reforming for Low Carbon Hydrogen: A Power-to-X Study

Gas Switching Reforming for hydrogen production (GSR-H2) offers a promising pathway for producing low-carbon hydrogen at scale, with significant implications for Power-to-X (PtX) systems that rely on clean hydrogen as a feedstock for synthetic fuels and chemicals. GSR-H2 integrates inherent carbon capture and thermal self-sufficiency, positioning it as an efficient alternative to conventional steam methane reforming (SMR), proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis, and chemical looping reforming (CLR). Unlike SMR, GSR-H2 avoids external natural gas combustion by leveraging exothermic redox cycles to generate process steam and recover electricity internally. Its innovative reactor design consolidates all reforming stages within a single reactor cluster, eliminating the need for solid circulation found in CLR, thereby reducing capital costs and improving system reliability and scalability. This presentation describes the first environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) of GSR-H2, evaluating its environmental performance across U.S. grid and renewable energy scenarios. In a renewables-powered configuration, GSR-H2 achieves a global warming potential (GWP) of 2.77 kg CO2 equivalent per kg H2, substantially lower than SMR (10.4 kg) and competitive with PEM electrolysis (1.85 kg) and CLR (1.84 kg). Results across additional impact categories, including air quality and water use, support GSR-H2’s role as a complementary hydrogen source in PtX applications. Its reduced environmental burden, thermal integration, and simplified scale-up potential make GSR-H2 a viable contributor to net-zero PtX systems, particularly where renewable energy is abundant and electricity-intensive hydrogen production faces economic or infrastructure constraints.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Quantifying the Known Unknown: Including Marine Sources of Greenhouse Gases in Climate Modeling

Researchers have recently estimated that Arctic submarine permafrost currently traps 60 billion tons of methane and contains 560 billion tons of organic carbon in seafloor sediments and soil, a giant pool of carbon with potentially large feedbacks on the climate system. Unlike terrestrial permafrost, the submarine permafrost system has remained a “known unknown” because of the difficulty in acquiring samples and measurements. Consequently, this potentially large carbon stock never yet considered in global climate models or policy discussions, represents a real wildcard in our understanding of Earth’s climate. This report summarizes our group’s effort at developing a numerical modeling framework designed to produce a first-of-its-kind estimate of Arctic methane gas releases from the marine sediments to the water column, and potentially to the atmosphere, where positive climate feedback may occur. Newly developed modeling capability supported by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program at Sandia National Laboratories now gives us the ability to probabilistically map gas distribution and quantity in the seabed by using a hybrid approach of geospatial machine learning, and predictive numerical thermodynamic ensemble modeling. The novelty in this approach is its ability to produce maps of useful data in regions that are only sparsely sampled, a common challenge in the Arctic, and a major obstacle to progress in the past. By applying this model to the circum-Arctic continental shelves and integrating the flux of free gas from in situ methanogenesis and dissociating gas hydrates from the sediment column under climate forcing, we can provide the most reliable estimate of a spatially and temporally varying source term for greenhouse gas flux that can be used by global oceanographic circulation and Earth system models (such as DOE’s E3SM). The result will allow us to finally tackle the wildcard of the submarine permafrost carbon system, and better inform us about the severity of future national security threats that sustained climate change poses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Version 5.8 Safety Analysis Code System

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 is a software simulation tool used to perform deterministic analysis of anticipated events as well as design basis and beyond design basis accidents for advanced nuclear reactors. Detailed, mechanistic models of steady-state and transient thermal, hydraulic, kinetic, and mechanical phenomena are employed to describe the response of the reactor core, the reactor primary and secondary coolant loops, the reactor control and protection systems, and the balance-of-plant to accidents caused by changes in coolant flow, loss of heat rejection, or reactivity insertion. The consequences of single and double-fault accidents can be modeled, including fuel and coolant heating, fuel and cladding mechanical behavior, core reactivity feedbacks, coolant loop performance including natural circulation, and decay heat removal. Analyses are typically terminated upon demonstration of reactor and plant shutdown to permanently coolable conditions, or upon violation of design basis margins. The objective of the analysis is to quantify accident consequences as measured by the transient behavior of system performance parameters, such as fuel and cladding temperatures, reactivity, and cladding strain. Originally developed for analysis of sodium cooled reactors with oxide fuel clad by stainless steel, the models were subsequently extended and specialized to metallic fuel clad with advanced alloys and to several other coolant options, including lead, LBE, and water.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Using Membranes with Internal Microchannels to Prevent Drying-out during CO 2 Electrolysis

Scaling up CO 2 electrolysis is a vital aspect in the transition to manufacturing sustainable fuels and chemical compounds, satisfying the demand for chemicals and demand for storing renewable electricity. Depending on the employed catalyst, different products can be produced, such as carbon monoxide and ethylene, by applying a voltage on a CO 2 and H 2 O fed electrolyzer. CO is a desirable product according to techno-economic analysis, because it can be produced selectively using a silver catalyst and is a precursor for hydrocarbons in the Fischer–Tropsch process. In a state-of-the-art CO 2 electrolyzer, two electrodes are directly pressed against an ion-exchange membrane – this is called a zero-gap configuration. Therefore, the membrane is a crucial component for the system, since it has the role of providing a conductive medium between the electrodes. One of the challenges in CO 2 electrolysis is that water is consumed in the reaction. At high current density, this may cause the membrane's surface near the cathode to dry out, lowering efficiency or perhaps stopping the process entirely, since there is no longer a conductive medium. As a result, water management is critical for this process. In this work, we approach the drying-out challenge by studying the novel concept of a membrane with internal microchannels. These channels allow the circulation of water or an electrolyte inside the membrane, which reduces the water diffusion path and affects the membrane’s conductivity. The effects of channel geometry, location, and concentrations of electrolyte inside on water content, conductivity and overall performance are studied in a 2D COMSOL model. In addition, the effect of internal concentration of electrolyte on the membrane’s resistance, on the process performance and the K + cross-over to cathode side were investigated experimentally. Our modeling results prove that the presence of the channels can keep the membrane hydrated. The highest current densities are observed when the channel is closest to the cathode, and with smaller pores. Smaller pores are advantageous due to the trade-off between enhanced membrane conductivity and the lower conductivity of the liquid itself. If water is circulated in a large channel, it increases the membrane’s ionomer conductivity due to hydration but the overall conductivity is decreased since water is not highly conductive. Nonetheless, the results also show that a higher concentration of electrolyte inside the microchannels can significantly increase the total conductivity of the membrane, and therefore the energy efficiency of the process. These effects are most significant at higher current densities. In the experimental results, we’ve observed similar effects in terms of membrane conductivity and current density of the process – the higher the electrolyte concentration the higher the current density. Furthermore, a low concentration decreases the amount of potassium which crosses over to the cathode side, inhibiting salt deposition. We’ve concluded that a small channel, up to 90 µm wide, close to the pore with an electrolyte with a concentration of up to 10 mM could be very beneficial for the water management and energy efficiency of the process. This helps to keep the membrane hydrated at higher current densities, improves the conductivity of the membrane, and it doesn’t have significant impacts on the salt deposition.

Petrov, Kostadin Veselinov↗

Energy-efficient sorption-based gas clothes dryer systems

Standard electric resistance and fuel-driven dehydration technologies exhibit a maximum coefficient of performance of well below 1 mainly due to enthalpy losses associated with the air leaving the dehydration system. To improve energy efficiency, condensing dryer systems condense the moisture captured from a product in a closed-loop air circulation cycle. Existing condensing dehydration systems including heat pump dryers, however, need to significantly cool the air to achieve dehumidification. The added cooling and subsequent heating to return the air to a desired drying temperature consume substantial energy and thus reduce drying performance. Here, an innovative sorption-based gas dehydration system is proposed to overcome barriers deteriorating energy efficiency in existing gas, electric, or heat pump dryer systems. Decoupling latent and sensible loads, the system employs a liquid-desiccant solution to directly capture air humidity, thereby allowing circulation of the air in a closed loop to achieve high drying energy efficiency. In other words, the system captures waste latent heat from the moisture produced during the dehydration process and reuses it to improve energy efficiency. This study focuses on a comprehensive quasi-steady-state thermodynamic modeling of the proposed sorption-based dehydration concept employed for a gas clothes dryer application to predict transient response and overall drying performance (i.e., time and energy metrics). The analysis indicates the proposed sorption-based gas clothes dryer system can deliver a specific moisture extraction rate of 1.71 kg of water per kWh (i.e., a combined energy factor of 3.167 kg (6.98 lbm) of dry cloth per kWh) with a drying time of 44 min. This is a 112% energy improvement compared with state-of-the-art gas clothes dryers exhibiting a combined energy factor of 1.50 kg (3.3 lbm) of dry cloth per kWh. The technology pursued here can potentially be employed as a platform for many fuel-driven equipment to take advantage of available waste thermal energy in the environment instead of simply burning a fuel.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Causal Interactions between Southern Ocean Polynyas and High-Latitude Atmosphere–Ocean Variability

Abstract Weddell Sea open-ocean polynyas have been observed to occasionally release heat from the deep ocean to the atmosphere, indicating that their sporadic appearances may be an important feature of high-latitude atmosphere–ocean variability. Yet, observations of the phenomenon are sparse and many standard-resolution models represent these features poorly, if at all. We use a fully coupled, synoptic-scale preindustrial control simulation of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv0-HR) to effectively simulate open-ocean polynyas and investigate their role in the climate system. Our approach employs statistical tests of Granger causality to diagnose local and remote drivers of, and responses to, polynya heat loss on interannual to decadal time scales. First, we find that polynya heat loss Granger causes a persistent increase in surface air temperature over the Weddell Sea, strengthening the local cyclonic wind circulation. Along with responding to polynyas, atmospheric conditions also facilitate their development. When the Southern Ocean experiences a rapid poleward shift in the circumpolar westerlies following a prolonged negative phase of the southern annular mode (SAM), Weddell Sea salinity increases, promoting density destratification and convection in the water column. Finally, we find that the reduction of surface heat fluxes during periods of full ice cover is not fully compensated by ocean heat transport into the high latitudes. This imbalance leads to a buildup of ocean heat content that supplies polynya heat loss. These results disentangle the complex, coupled climate processes that both enable the polynya’s existence and respond to it, providing insights to improve the representation of these highly episodic sea ice features in climate models.

Kaufman, Zachary S.↗

Cloud microphysical response to entrainment and mixing is locally inhomogeneous and globally homogeneous: Evidence from the lab

Entrainment of dry air into clouds strongly influences cloud optical and precipitation properties and the response of clouds to aerosol perturbations. The response of cloud droplet size distributions to entrainment–mixing is examined in the Pi convection-cloud chamber that creates a turbulent, steady-state cloud. The experiments are conducted by injecting dry air with temperature (T e ) and flow rate (Q e ) through a flange in the top boundary, into the otherwise well-mixed cloud, to mimic the entrainment–mixing process. Due to the large-scale circulation, the downwind region is directly affected by entrained dry air, whereas the upwind region is representative of the background conditions. Droplet concentration (Cn) and liquid water content (L) decrease in the downwind region, but the difference in the mean diameter of droplets (D m ) is small. The shape of cloud droplet size distributions relative to the injection point is unchanged, to within statistical uncertainty, resulting in a signature of inhomogeneous mixing, as expected for droplet evaporation times small compared to mixing time scales. As T e and Q e of entrained air increase, however, Cn, L, and D m of the whole cloud system decrease, resulting in a signature of homogeneous mixing. The apparent contradiction is understood as the cloud microphysical responses to entrainment and mixing differing on local and global scales: locally inhomogeneous and globally homogeneous. This implies that global versus local sampling of clouds can lead to seemingly contradictory results for mixing, which informs the long-standing debate about the microphysical response to entrainment and the parameterization of this process for coarse-resolution models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effect of inlet throttling on thermohydraulic instability in a large scale water-based RCCS: An experimental study

The objective of the present experimental study is to investigate the effect of inlet throttling on the thermohydraulic stability of a large scale water-based Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). The test was performed using the water-based Natural convection Shutdown heat removal Test Facility (NSTF) at Argonne, which represented a ½ axial scale and 12.5° sector slice of the full scale Framatome 625 MW t SC-HTGR RCCS concept. A two-phase steady state was first established through direct condensate refill, followed by increased inlet throttling over 10 stages, corresponding to a loss coefficient K over the range of 0.05–653. With the inlet throttling gradually increased, the system experienced a unique transition process between stabilization and destabilization. Through a stability analysis, three instability mechanisms were identified in the present test, including a compound mechanism due to both natural circulation oscillations (NCOs) and density wave oscillations (DWOs), Type-II DWOs, and geysering.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Fracture Sustainability in Enhanced Geothermal Systems: Experimental and Modeling Constraints

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) offer the potential for a much larger energy source than conventional hydrothermal systems. Hot, low-permeability rocks are prevalent at depth around the world, but the challenge of extracting thermal energy depends on the ability to create and sustain open fracture networks. Laboratory experiments were conducted using a suite of selected rock cores (granite, metasediment, rhyolite ash-flow tuff, and silicified rhyolitic tuff) at relevant pressures (uniaxial loading up to 20.7 MPa and fluid pressures up to 10.3 MPa) and temperatures (150–250 °C) to evaluate the potential impacts of circulating fluids through fractured rock by monitoring changes in fracture aperture, mineralogy, permeability, and fluid chemistry. Because a fluid in disequilibrium with the rocks (deionized water) was used for these experiments, there was net dissolution of the rock sample: this increased with increasing temperature and experiment duration. Thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical (THMC) modeling simulations were performed for the rhyolite ash-flow tuff experiment to test the ability to predict the observed changes. These simulations were performed in two steps: a thermal-hydrological-mechanical (THM) simulation to evaluate the effects of compression of the fracture, and a thermal-hydrological-chemical (THC) simulation to evaluate the effects of hydrothermal reactions on the fracture mineralogy, porosity, and permeability. Furthermore, these experiments and simulations point out how differences in rock mineralogy, fluid chemistry, and geomechanical properties influence how long asperity-propped fracture apertures may be sustained. Such core-scale experiments and simulations can be used to predict EGS reservoir behavior on the field scale.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗