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At least 127 records · Page 7

Insights into Cation Ordering of Double Perovskite Oxides from Machine Learning and Causal Relations

This work investigates origins of cation ordering in double perovskites using first-principles theory computations combined with machine learning (ML) and causal relations. We have considered various oxidation states of A, A', B, and B' from the family of transition metal ions to construct a diverse compositional space. A conventional framework employing traditional ML classification algorithms such as Random Forest (RF) coupled with appropriate features including geometry-driven and key structural modes leads to accurate prediction (~98%) of A-site cation ordering. We have evaluated the accuracy of ML models by employing analyses of decision paths, assignments of probabilistic confidence bound, and finally a direct non-Gaussian acyclic structural equation model to investigate causality. Our study suggests that structural modes are crucial for classifying layered, columnar, and rock-salt ordering. The charge difference between A and A' is the most important feature for predicting clear layered ordering, which in turn depends on the B and B' charge separation. We have also designed mathematical relationships with these features to derive energy differences to form clear layered ordering. Here, the trilinear coupling between tilt, in-phase rotation, and A-site antiferroelectric displacement in the Landau free-energy expansion becomes the necessary condition behind formation of A-site cation ordering.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Guidelines for investigating causality of sequence variants in human disease

The discovery of rare genetic variants is accelerating, and clear guidelines for distinguishing disease-causing sequence variants from the many potentially functional variants present in any human genome are urgently needed. Without rigorous standards we risk an acceleration of false-positive reports of causality, which would impede the translation of genomic research findings into the clinical diagnostic setting and hinder biological understanding of disease. Here we discuss the key challenges of assessing sequence variants in human disease, integrating both gene-level and variant-level support for causality. We propose guidelines for summarizing confidence in variant pathogenicity and highlight several areas that require further resource development.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Off-the-shelf deep learning is not enough, and requires parsimony, Bayesianity, and causality

Abstract Deep neural networks (‘deep learning’) have emerged as a technology of choice to tackle problems in speech recognition, computer vision, finance, etc. However, adoption of deep learning in physical domains brings substantial challenges stemming from the correlative nature of deep learning methods compared to the causal, hypothesis driven nature of modern science. We argue that the broad adoption of Bayesian methods incorporating prior knowledge, development of solutions with incorporated physical constraints and parsimonious structural descriptors and generative models, and ultimately adoption of causal models, offers a path forward for fundamental and applied research.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Nonlinear causality and strong hyperbolicity of baryon-rich Israel-Stewart hydrodynamics

We present the first set of fully-nonlinear, necessary and sufficient conditions guaranteeing causal evolution of the initial data for the Israel-Stewart hydrodynamic equations with shear and bulk viscosity coupled to a nonzero baryon current. These constraints not only provide nonlinear causality: they also (a) guarantee the existence of a locally well-posed evolution of the initial data (they enforce strong hyperbolicity) when excluding the endpoints of the bounds, (b) arise from purely algebraic constraints that make no underlying symmetry assumptions on the degrees of freedom and (c) propagate the relevant symmetries of the degrees of freedom over the entire evolution of the problem. Our work enforces a mathematically rigorous foundation for future studies of viscous relativistic hydrodynamics with baryon-rich matter including neutron star mergers and heavy-ion collisions.

Cordeiro, Ian [University of Illinois Urbana-Champ↗

Quasinormal modes, echoes and the causal structure of the Green's function

Quasinormal modes describe the return to equilibrium of a perturbed system, in particular the ringdown phase of a black hole merger. But as globally-defined quantities, the quasinormal spectrum can be highly sensitive to global structure, including distant small perturbations to the potential. In what sense are quasinormal modes a property of the resulting black hole? We explore this question for the linearized perturbation equation with two potentials having disjoint bounded support. We give a composition law for the Wronskian that determines the quasinormal frequencies of the combined system. We show that over short time scales the evolution is governed by the quasinormal frequencies of the individual potentials, while the sensitivity to global structure can be understood in terms of echoes. We introduce an echo expansion of the Green’s function and show that, as expected on general grounds, at any finite time causality limits the number of echoes that can contribute. We illustrate our results with the soluble example of a pair of -function potentials. We explicate the causal structure of the Green’s function, demonstrating under what conditions two very different quasinormal spectra give rise to very similar ringdown waveforms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Causal network inference using biochemical kinetics

Motivation: Networks are widely used as structural summaries of biochemical systems. Statistical estimation of networks is usually based on linear or discrete models. However, the dynamics of biochemical systems are generally non-linear, suggesting that suitable non-linear formulations may offer gains with respect to causal network inference and aid in associated prediction problems. Results: We present a general framework for network inference and dynamical prediction using time course data that is rooted in nonlinear biochemical kinetics. This is achieved by considering a dynamical system based on a chemical reaction graph with associated kinetic parameters. Both the graph and kinetic parameters are treated as unknown; inference is carried out within a Bayesian framework. This allows prediction of dynamical behavior even when the underlying reaction graph itself is unknown or uncertain. Results, based on (i) data simulated from a mechanistic model of mitogen-activated protein kinase signaling and (ii) phosphoproteomic data from cancer cell lines, demonstrate that non-linear formulations can yield gains in causal network inference and permit dynamical prediction and uncertainty quantification in the challenging setting where the reaction graph is unknown. Availability and implementation: MATLAB R2014a software is available to download from warwick.ac.uk/chrisoates.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Effect of causality constraints on Bayesian analyses of heavy-ion collisions

There have long been questions about the limits to the validity of relativistic fluid dynamics and whether it is being used outside its regime of validity in modern simulations of relativistic heavy-ion collisions. An important new tool for answering this question is a causality analysis in the nonlinear regime—if the solutions of the evolution equations do not respect relativistic causality, then they are not a faithful representation of the underlying relativistic theory (in this case, quantum chromodynamics). Using this nonlinear criterion, it has recently been shown that hydrodynamics is indeed being used outside its regime of validity in simulations, at least sometimes. Here we explore the phenomenological implications, particularly the quantitative effects of demanding limits on acausality in modern Bayesian parameter estimation. We find that, while typically only a small fraction of the system's energy is initially in an acausal regime, placing strict limits on the allowed energy fraction significantly changes the preferred properties of the initial condition, which in turn alters the extracted medium properties such as bulk viscosity, where large values are no longer favored. Furthermore, these findings highlight the importance of developing better theoretical descriptions of the early-time, out-of-equilibrium dynamics of relativistic heavy-ion collisions.

Bayesian methods↗

Dispersion Relations Alone Cannot Guarantee Causality

We show that linear superpositions of plane waves involving a single-valued, covariantly stable dispersion relation ω ( k ) always propagate outside the light cone unless ω ( k ) = a + b k . This implies that there is no notion of causality for individual dispersion relations since no mathematical condition on the function ω ( k ) (such as the front velocity or the asymptotic group velocity conditions) can serve as a sufficient condition for subluminal propagation in dispersive media. Instead, causality can only emerge from a careful cancellation that occurs when one superimposes all the excitation branches of a physical model. This happens automatically in local theories of matter that are covariantly stable. Hence, we find that the need for nonhydrodynamic modes in relativistic fluid mechanics is analogous to the need for antiparticles in relativistic quantum mechanics. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗

Universal CMB 𝐵-mode spectrum from early causal tensor sources

Many early Universe scenarios predict postinflationary tensor perturbations from causality-limited, subhorizon sources. While the microphysical details may be different, as long as these sources are bounded in duration and correlation length, their tensor power spectra exhibit a universal scaling behavior at small wave number: 𝒫 ℎ ⁡(𝑘)∝𝑘 3 , corresponding to white noise on superhorizon scales at the time of production. If these early causal tensor sources (ECTs) exclusively produce gravitational waves before redshift 𝑧 ∼10 5 , this scaling is realized on all of the scales observed in the CMB, and thus yields a universal multipole distribution for the 𝐵-mode angular power spectrum. Unlike the scale-invariant distributions of inflationary 𝐵 modes, ECTs generically predict enhanced power on small scales and suppressed power on large scales, which allows these source classes to be distinguished given measurements over a sufficient range of angular scales. In this paper, we introduce a unified framework for characterizing ECTs and demonstrate how their universal infrared scaling manifests in low-frequency observables, including CMB 𝐵 modes and stochastic gravitational wave spectral densities. We illustrate this mapping with representative case studies of this universality class involving first-order phase transitions, topological defects, and enhanced scalar perturbations, which source tensor modes at second order in perturbation theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Methods for Causal Discovery

SAND2025-11742O Methods for Causal Discovery is a software tool that is used for causal discovery from data, including predicting and visualizing directed acyclic graphs from data using traditional machine learning techniques. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗

Tropical Convective Transition Statistics and Causality in the Water Vapor–Precipitation Relation

Abstract Previous work by various authors has pointed to the role of lower-free-tropospheric humidity in affecting the onset of deep convection in the tropics. Empirical relationships between column water vapor (CWV) and precipitation have been inferred to result from these effects. Evidence from previous work has included deep convective conditional instability calculations for entraining plumes, in which the lower-free-tropospheric environment affects the onset of deep convection due to the differential impact on buoyancy of turbulent entrainment of dry versus moist air. The relationship between deep convection and water vapor is, however, a two-way interaction because convection also moistens the free troposphere. The present study adds an additional line of evidence toward fully establishing the causality of the precipitation–water vapor relationship. Parameter perturbation experiments using the coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) with high-time-resolution output are analyzed for a set of statistics for the transition to deep convection, coordinated with observational diagnostics for the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) campaign and tropical western Pacific Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites. For low values of entrainment in the deep convective scheme, these statistics are radically altered and the observed pickup of precipitation with CWV is no longer seen. In addition to helping cement the dominant direction of causality in the fast-time-scale precipitation–CWV relationship, the results point to impacts of entrainment on the climatology. Because at low entrainment convection can fire before tropospheric moistening, the climatological values of relative humidity are lower than observed. These findings can be consequential to biases in simulated climate and to projections of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data for Adoption of Perennial Energy Crops in the U.S. Midwest, Causal and Heterogeneous Determinants

The success of a bioenergy policy relies largely on the wide adoption of perennial energy crops at the farm scale. This study uses survey data to examine potential adoption decisions by farmers in the U.S. Midwest and the causal effects of various direct and indirect influencing factors, especially heterogeneous preferences of farmers. A Bayesian network (BN) model is developed to delineate the causal relationship between farmers adoption decisions and the influencing factors. We find a dominating role of economic factors and a non-negligible impact of non-economic factors, such as the perceived environmental benefits and the extent of familiarity with perennial energy crops. To examine the effect of heterogeneity in farmer preferences, we classify the surveyed farmers into four categories based on their attitudes toward the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of perennial energy crops. We identified statistically significant between-group differences in the responses of the four types of farmers to the various influencing factors. Our findings contribute to disentangling the complicated motivations that will influence perennial energy crop adoption decisions and provide implications for more targeted policy development that need to consider the heterogeneous drivers of farmer decisions about land use.

Modeling↗

Causal Analysis of the Inadvertent Contact with an Uncontrolled Electrical Hazardous Energy Source (120 Volts AC)

On September 25, 2013, a Health Physics Technician (HPT) was performing preparations to support a pneumatic transfer from the HFEF Decon Cell to the Room 130 Glovebox in HFEF, per HFEF OI 3165 section 3.5, Field Preparations. This activity involves an HPT setting up and climbing a portable ladder to remove the 14-C meter probe from above ball valve HBV-7. The HPT source checks the meter and probe and then replaces the probe above HBV-7, which is located above Hood ID# 130 HP. At approximately 13:20, while reaching past the HBV-7 valve position indicator switches in an attempt to place the 14-C meter probe in the desired location, the HPT’s left forearm came in contact with one of the three sets of exposed terminals on the valve position indication switches for HBV 7. This resulted in the HPT receiving an electrical shock from a 120 Volt AC source. Upon moving the arm, following the electrical shock, the HPT noticed two exposed electrical connections on a switch. The HPT then notified the HFEF HPT Supervisor, who in turn notified the MFC Radiological Controls Manager and HFEF Operations Manager of the situation. Work was stopped in the area and the hazard was roped off and posted to prevent access to the hazard. The HPT was escorted by the HPT Supervisor to the MFC Dispensary and then preceded to CFA medical for further evaluation. The individual was evaluated and released without any medical restrictions. Causal Factor (Root Cause) A3B3C01/A5B2C08: - Knowledge based error/Attention was given to wrong issues - Written Communication content LTA, Incomplete/situation not covered The Causal Factor (root cause) was attention being given to the wrong issues during the creation, reviews, verifications, and actual performance of HFEF OI-3165, which covers the need to perform the weekly source check and ensure placement of the probe prior to performing a “rabbit” transfer. This resulted in the hazard not being identified and mitigated in the procedure. Work activities with in HFEF-OI-3165 placed the HPT in proximity of an unmitigated hazard directly resulting in this event. Contributing Factor A3B3C04/A4B5C04: - Knowledge Based Error, LTA Review Based on Assumption That Process Will Not Change - Change Management LTA, Risks/consequences associated with change not adequately reviewed/assessed Prior to the pneumatic system being out of service, the probe and meter were not being source checked together. The source check issue was identified and addressed during the period of time when the system was out of service. The corrective actions for this issue resulted in the requirement that a meter and probe be source checked together as it is intended to be used. This changed the activity and required an HPT to weekly, when in use, remove and install the probe from above HBV-7 to meet the requirement of LRD 15001 Part 5 Article 551.5. Risks and consequences associated with this change were not adequately reviewed or assessed. Failure to identify the hazard associated with this change directly contributed to this event.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Identification of Colletotrichum aenigma as the new causal agent of leaf blight disease on Aucuba japonica Thunb., and screenings of effective fungicides for its sustainable management

Aucuba japonica Thunb is an evergreen woody ornamental plant with significant economic and ecological values. It also produces aucubin, showing a variety of biological activities. It is widely planted in the southwest region of China, including karst landscape areas in Guizhou Province. In January 2022, a serious leaf blight disease was observed on the leaves of A. japonica in the outdoor gardens of Guizhou University, Guiyang, Guizhou, China. The causal agent was identified as Colletotrichum aenigma through amplification and sequencing of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region, translation of the chitin synthase ( CHS ) and actin ( ACT ) genes, and morphological characterizations. Koch’s postulates were confirmed by its pathogenicity on healthy leaves, including re-isolation and identification. To our knowledge, this is the first report of C. aenigma causing leaf blight on A. japonica worldwide. To identify pathogen characteristics that could be utilized for future disease management, the effects of temperature and light on mycelial growth, conidia production, and conidial germination, and the effects of humidity on conidial germination were studied. Optimal temperatures for mycelial growth of C. aenigma BY827 were 25–30°C, while 15°C and 35°C were favorable for conidia production. Concurrently, alternating 10-h light and 14-h dark, proved to be beneficial for mycelial growth and conidial germination. Additionally, conidial germination was enhanced at 90% humidity. In vitro screenings of ten chemical pesticides to assess their efficacy in suppressing C. aenigma representative strain BY827. Among them, difenoconazole showed the best inhibition rate, with an EC 50 (concentration for 50% of maximal effect) value of 0.0148 μg/ml. Subsequently, field experiment results showed that difenoconazole had the highest control efficiency on A. japonica leaf blight (the decreasing rate of disease incidence and decreasing rate of disease index were 44.60 and 47.75%, respectively). Interestingly, we discovered that C. aenigma BY827 may develop resistance to mancozeb, which is not reported yet among Colletotrichum spp. strains. In conclusion, our study provided new insights into the causal agent of A. japonica leaf blight, and the effective fungicides evaluated provided an important basis and potential resource for the sustainable control of A. japonica leaf blight caused by C. aenigma in the field.

Fan, Ruidong↗

Causality of plasma permittivity with loss and restoring terms

The causality of the complex permittivity for a plasma model in which both loss and restoring terms are included is shown. Discussions as to what occurs in this causality property when the loss and restoring terms vanish are presented. Results are shown to agree with earlier work.

Cockrell, C. R.↗

Steady flow on to a conveyor belt - Causal viscosity and shear shocks

Some hydrodynamical consequences of the adoption of a causal theory of viscosity are explored. Causality is introduced into the theory by letting the coefficient of viscosity go to zero as the flow velocity approaches a designated propagation speed for viscous signals. Consideration is given to a model of viscosity which has a finite propagation speed of shear information, and it is shown that it produces two kinds of shear shock. A 'pure shear shock' corresponds to a transition from a superviscous to a subviscous state with no discontinuity in the velocity. A 'mixed shear shock' has a shear transition occurring at the same location as a normal adiabatic or radiative shock. A generalized version of the Rankine-Hugoniot conditions for mixed shear shocks is derived, and self-consistent numerical solutions to a model 2D problem in which an axisymmetric radially infalling stream encounters a spinning star are presented.

Syer, D.↗

A Longitudinal Analysis of the Causal Factors in Major Maritime Accidents in the USA and Canada (1996-2006)

Accident reports provide important insights into the causes and contributory factors leading to particular adverse events. In contrast, this paper provides an analysis that extends across the findings presented over ten years investigations into maritime accidents by both the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and Canadian Transportation Safety Board (TSB). The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a range of causal factors in the reporting of adverse events. In order to communicate our findings, we introduce J-H graphs as a means of representing the proportion of causes and contributory factors associated with human error, equipment failure and other high level classifications in longitudinal studies of accident reports. Our results suggest the proportion of causal and contributory factors attributable to direct human error may be very much smaller than has been suggested elsewhere in the human factors literature. In contrast, more attention should be paid to wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of maritime operations.

Johnson, C. W.↗