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At least 127 records · Page 7

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DOE OSTI2014

California-Wyoming Grid Integration Study: Phase 1—Economic Analysis

This study presents a comparative analysis of two different renewable energy options for the California energy market between 2017 and 2020: 12,000 GWh per year from new California in-state renewable energy resources; and 12,000 GWh per year from Wyoming wind delivered to the California marketplace. Either option would add to the California resources already existing or under construction, theoretically providing the last measure of power needed to meet (or to slightly exceed) the state's 33% renewable portfolio standard. Both options have discretely measurable differences in transmission costs, capital costs (due to the enabling of different generation portfolios), capacity values, and production costs. The purpose of this study is to compare and contrast the two different options to provide additional insight for future planning.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Categorization of potential distributed energy resource (DER) opportunities in water and wastewater systems in California

This is an informal interim deliverable in the larger California Public Utilities Commission analytical support project. This document provide a high level categorization of potential distributed energy resource (DER) opportunities in water and wastewater systems in California. Future deliverables in this project will provide more detail on grid services that might be provided by the identified unit processes, a characterization of maturity and potential impacts to cost effectiveness, and an order of magnitude estimate of DER potential that may be practically achievable in California through water and wastewater systems informed by case studies in California and beyond.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comprehensive Review of California's Innovative Clean Transit Regulation: Phase I Summary Report

This report–prepared by NREL and UC Berkeley for the California Air Resources Board (CARB)–provides a comprehensive review conducted for implementation of the Innovative Clean Transit (ICT) regulation and deployment of zero-emission transit buses in California. The ICT regulation requires California transit agencies to begin transitioning to zero-emission vehicle technologies, defining an increasing percentage of new bus purchases that must be zero-emission buses (ZEBs) each year. The purchase requirements begin in 2023, increasing to a 100% ZEB purchase requirement beginning in 2029. This schedule is designed to result in 100% ZEB fleets statewide by 2040. The focus of the Phase I study was on implementation progress, status of standard-size transit buses, and the California transit industry's readiness to meet the 2023 ICT purchase requirements.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI1978

Plant Engineers Solar Energy Handbook: Southern California Region

Discussed in order after the introduction are solar components and systems (collectors, storage, service hot water systems, space heating with liquid and air systems, space cooling, heat pumps and controls); computer programs for system optimization; local solar and weather data; a description of buildings and plants in Southern California applying solar technology; current Federal and California solar legislation; standards, codes and performance testing information; a listing of manufacturers, distributors, and professional services available in Southern California region; and information access. Finally, solar design check lists for those engineers who wish to design their own systems. The program for the Solar Workshop for the Plant Engineer, March 30, 1978, Los Angeles, California is included.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deployment Potential of Concentrating Solar Power Technologies in California

As states within the United States respond to future grid development goals, there is a growing demand for reliable and resilient nighttime generation that can be addressed by low-cost, long-duration energy storage solutions. This report studies the potential of including concentrating solar power (CSP) in the technology mix to support California’s goals as defined in Senate Bill 100. A joint agency report study that determined potential pathways to achieve the renewable portfolio standard set by the bill did not include CSP, and our work provides information that could be used as a follow-up. This study uses a capacity expansion model configured to have nodal spatial fidelity in California and balancing-area fidelity in the Western Interconnection outside of California. The authors discovered that by applying current technology cost projections CSP fulfills nearly 15% of the annual load while representing just 6% of total installed capacity in 2045, replacing approximately 30 GWe of wind, solar PV, and standalone batteries compared to a scenario without CSP included. The deployment of CSP in the results is sensitive to the technology’s cost, which highlights the importance of meeting cost targets in 2030 and beyond to enable the technology’s potential contribution to California’s carbon reduction goals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2015

Causes of the 2011-14 California Drought

The causes of the California drought during November-April winters of 2011/12-2013/14 are analyzed using observations and ensemble simulations with seven atmosphere models forced by observed SSTs. Historically, dry California winters are most commonly associated with a ridge off the west coast but no obvious SST forcing. Wet winters are most commonly associated with a trough off the west coast and an El Nino event. These attributes of dry and wet winters are captured by many of the seven models. According to the models, SST forcing can explain up to a third of California winter precipitation variance. SST forcing was key to sustaining a high pressure ridge over the west coast and suppressing precipitation during the three winters. In 2011/12 this was a response to a La Nina event, whereas in 2012/13 and 2013/14 it appears related to a warm west-cool east tropical Pacific SST pattern. All models contain a mode of variability linking such tropical Pacific SST anomalies to a wave train with a ridge off the North American west coast. This mode explains less variance than ENSO and Pacific decadal variability, and its importance in 2012/13 and 2013/14 was unusual. The models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) project rising greenhouse gases to cause changes in California all-winter precipitation that are very small compared to recent drought anomalies. However, a long-term warming trend likely contributed to surface moisture deficits during the drought. As such, the precipitation deficit during the drought was dominated by natural variability, a conclusion framed by discussion of differences between observed and modeled tropical SST trends.

California Drought↗

DOE OSTI2025

The anaerobic fungus Neocallimastix californiae shifts metabolism and produces melanin in response to lignin-derived aromatic compounds

Biological deconstruction of lignocellulose for sustainable chemical production offers an opportunity to harness evolutionarily specialized enzymes and organisms for industrial bioprocessing. While hydrolysis of cellulose and hemicellulose by CAZymes yields fermentable sugars, ligninolysis releases a heterogeneous mix of aromatic compounds that likely play a crucial role in shaping microbial communities and microbial metabolism. Here, we interrogated the metabolomic and transcriptomic response of a lignocellulolytic anaerobic fungus, Neocallimastix californiae, to a heterogeneous mixture of aromatic compounds derived from lignin. Through exposing the fungus to both a concentration it might experience in its native environment and an elevated concentration of alkaline lignin, we observe that N. californiae transforms vanillin and that supplying alkaline lignin at 0.125 g/L, alongside cellulose, enhances the growth and polysaccharide-degrading activity of N. californiae. Altogether, our results further suggest that vanillin consumption, increased polymer-degrading activity, increased metabolic activity, and transcriptomic remodeling of amino acid synthesis genes all coincide with increased melanin production by fungal cells. These observations challenge previous notions that aromatics from lignocellulose only inhibit the growth and polymer deconstruction capabilities of the biomass-degrading anaerobic fungi (Neocallimastigomycetes). This study demonstrates that anaerobic fungi have a complex relationship with aromatic chemicals derived from lignin and hemicellulose and shift their metabolism in response to the addition of lignocellulose-derived aromatics to their growth medium. Further, as no known pathways for the biochemical transformation of aromatics were detected in these organisms despite observed transcriptome remodeling in the presence of aromatics, we suggest they might encode novel biochemical routes for scavenging amino acid building blocks from aromatic monomers derived from hemicellulose side chains and lignin.

Anaerobic fungi↗

DOE OSTI2017

Assessment of an atmospheric transport model for annual inverse estimates of California greenhouse gas emissions

Abstract Atmospheric inverse estimates of gas emissions depend on transport model predictions, hence driving a need to assess uncertainties in the transport model. In this study we assess the uncertainty in WRF‐STILT (Weather Research and Forecasting and Stochastic Time‐Inverted Lagrangian Transport) model predictions using a combination of meteorological and carbon monoxide (CO) measurements. WRF configurations were selected to minimize meteorological biases using meteorological measurements of winds and boundary layer depths from surface stations and radar wind profiler sites across California. We compare model predictions with CO measurements from four tower sites in California from June 2013 through May 2014 to assess the seasonal biases and random errors in predicted CO mixing ratios. In general, the seasonal mean biases in boundary layer wind speed (< ~ 0.5 m/s), direction (< ~ 15°), and boundary layer height (< ~ 200 m) were small. However, random errors were large (~1.5–3.0 m/s for wind speed, ~ 40–60° for wind direction, and ~ 300–500 m for boundary layer height). Regression analysis of predicted and measured CO yielded near‐unity slopes (i.e., within 1.0 ± 0.20) for the majority of sites and seasons, though a subset of sites and seasons exhibit larger (~30%) uncertainty, particularly when weak winds combined with complex terrain in the South Central Valley of California. Looking across sites and seasons, these results suggest that WRF‐STILT simulations are sufficient to estimate emissions of CO to up to 15% on annual time scales across California.

Bagley, Justin E.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Modeling the climate impacts of deploying solar reflective cool pavements in California cities

Solar reflective “cool pavements” have been proposed as a potential heat mitigation strategy for cities. However, previous research has not systematically investigated the extent to which cool pavements could reduce urban temperatures. In this study we investigated the climate impacts of widespread deployment of cool pavements in California cities. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, we simulated the current climate of California at 4 km spatial resolution. Comparing this simulation to 105 weather stations in California suggested an overall mean bias (model minus observation) of -0.30°C. Widespread pavement albedo increases of 0.1 and 0.4 in California cities were then simulated. Comparing temperature reductions for each scenario showed that the climate response to pavement albedo modification was nearly linear. Temperature reductions at 14:00 local standard time were found to be 0.32°C per 0.1 increase in grid cell average albedo. Temperature reductions were found to peak in the late morning and evening when (a) boundary layer heights were low and (b) solar irradiance (late morning) and heat accumulation in the pavement (evening) was high. Temperature reductions in summer were found to exceed those in winter, as expected. After scaling the results using realistic data-derived urban canyon morphologies and an off-line urban canyon albedo model, annual average surface air temperature reductions from increasing pavement albedo by 0.4 ranged from 0.18°C (Palm Springs) to 0.86°C (San Jose). We note the variation among cities was due to differences in baseline climate, size of the city, urban fraction, and urban morphology.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2019

Potential benefits of cool walls on residential and commercial buildings across California and the United States: Conserving energy, saving money, and reducing emission of greenhouse gases and air pollutants

Solar-reflective “cool” walls reduce absorption of sunlight by the building envelope, which may decrease cooling load in warm weather and increase heating load in cool weather. Changes to annual heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) energy use depend on climate, wall construction, wall orientation, building geometry, HVAC efficiency, and operating schedule. Changes to annual energy cost and energy-related emissions further vary with local energy prices and emission factors. In this work, we used EnergyPlus to perform over 100,000 whole-building energy simulations, spanning 10 different building categories, three building vintages, 16 California climate zones, and 15 United States (U.S.) climate zones. We find that cool walls yielded annual source energy, energy cost, and emission savings in all California climate zones and in warm U.S. (ASHRAE) climate zones. In California, annual whole-building HVAC energy cost savings were 4.0–27% in single-family homes, 0.5–3.8% in medium office buildings, and 0.0–8.5% in stand-alone retail stores. In warm U.S. climates—zones 1A (Miami, FL) through 4B (Albuquerque, NM)—annual HVAC energy cost savings were 1.8–8.3% in single-family homes, 0.3–4.6% in medium office buildings, and 0.5–11% in stand-alone retail stores. California and U.S. fractional source energy and emission savings were comparable to fractional energy cost savings. Per unit surface area modified, cool-wall savings often exceeded cool-roof savings because building codes typically prescribe much less wall insulation than roof insulation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2018

Hexavalent Chromium Sources and Distribution in California Groundwater

Groundwater resources in California represent a confluence of high-risk factors for hexavalent chromium contamination as a result of industrial activities, natural geology, and, potentially, land use. Here, we examine state-wide links in California between groundwater Cr(VI) concentrations and chemicals that provide signatures for source attribution. In environmental monitoring wells, Cr(VI) had the highest co-occurrence and also clustered with 1,4-dioxane and several chlorinated hydrocarbons indicative of the metal plating industry. Additionally, hotspots of Cr(VI) co-occurring with bromoform result from volatile organic compound remediation using in situ chemical oxidation that inadvertently oxidizes naturally occurring Cr(III). In groundwater supply wells, which are typically free of industrial inputs, Cr(VI) correlates with dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE), vanadium, and ammonia and clusters with nitrate and dissolved oxygen, suggesting potential links between agricultural activities and Cr(VI). Specific controls on Cr(VI) vary substantially by region: from the metal plating industry around Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay areas to natural redox conditions along flow paths in the Mojave Desert and to correlations with agricultural practices in the Central Valley of California. Here, while industrial uses of Cr lead to the most acute cases of groundwater Cr(VI) contamination, oxidation of naturally occurring Cr affects a larger area, more wells, and a greater number of people throughout California.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nowcasting Earthquakes in Southern California With Machine Learning: Bursts, Swarms, and Aftershocks May Be Related to Levels of Regional Tectonic Stress

Abstract Seismic bursts in Southern California are sequences of small earthquakes strongly clustered in space and time and include seismic swarms and aftershock sequences. A readily observable property of these events, the radius of gyration ( R G ), allows us to connect the bursts to the temporal occurrence of the largest M ≥ 7 earthquakes in California since 1984. In the Southern California earthquake catalog, we identify hundreds of these potentially coherent space‐time structures in a region defined by a circle of radius 600 km around Los Angeles. We compute R G for each cluster then filter them to identify those bursts with large numbers of events closely clustered in space, which we call “compact” bursts. Our basic assumption is that these compact bursts reflect the dynamics associated with large earthquakes. Once we have filtered the burst catalog, we apply an exponential moving average to construct a time series for the Southern California region. We observe that the R G of these bursts systematically decreases prior to large earthquakes, in a process that we might term “radial localization.” The R G then rapidly increases during an aftershock sequence, and a new cycle of “radial localization” then begins. These time series display cycles of recharge and discharge reminiscent of seismic stress accumulation and release in the elastic rebound process. The complex burst dynamics we observe are evidently a property of the region as a whole, rather than being associated with individual faults. This new method allows us to improve earthquake nowcasting, which is a technique to evaluate the current state of hazard in a seismically active region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Low-Carbon Energy Adoption on Airborne Particulate Matter Concentrations With Feedbacks to Future Climate Over California

California plans to reduce emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) through adoption of new energy systems that will also lower concentrations of short-lived absorbing soot contained in airborne particulate matter (PM). Here we examine the direct and indirect effects of reduced PM concentrations under a low-carbon energy (GHG-Step) scenario on radiative forcing in California. Simulations were carried out using the source-oriented WRF/Chem (SOWC) model with 12 km spatial resolution for the year 2054. Furthermore, the avoided aerosol emissions due to technology advances in the GHG-Step scenario reduce ground level PM concentrations by ~8.85% over land compared to the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, but changes to meteorological parameters are more modest. Top-of-atmospheric forcing predicted by the SOWC model increased by 0.15 W m -2 , surface temperature warmed by 0.001 K, and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) increased by 2.20 cm in the GHG-Step scenario compared to the BAU scenario. PM climate feedbacks are small because the significant changes in ground level PM concentrations associated with the GHG-Step scenario are limited to the first few hundred meters of the atmosphere, with little change for the majority of the vertical column above that level. As an order-of-magnitude comparison, the long-term effects of global reductions in GHG emissions (RCP8.5–RCP4.5) lowered average surface temperature over the California study domain by approximately 0.76 K. The effects of long-lived climate pollutants such as CO 2 are much stronger than the effects of short-lived climate pollutants such as PM soot over California in the year 2054.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Distinct Atmospheric Mode for California Precipitation

The hydrologic cycle in California is strongly influenced by wet-season (November–April) precipitation. Here, we demonstrate the existence of an influential mode of North Pacific atmospheric pressure variability that regulates wet-season precipitation variability over both northern and southern California. This mode, named as the “California precipitation mode” (CPM), is statistically distinct from other well-known modes of pressure variability such as the Pacific-North American pattern. In addition to controlling wet-season mean precipitation, positive days of the CPM coincide with up to 90% of the extreme (>99th percentile) precipitation days and 76% of detected atmospheric rivers (ARs) days, while the negative days correspond with 60% of the dry days. CMIP6 models capture the CPM remarkably well, including its statistical separation from the other well-known modes of pressure variability. The models also reproduce the CPM's strong association with California wet-season precipitation, giving confidence in the models’ dynamics relating to regional hydrologic extremes. However, the models also exhibit biases in regional hydrologic extremes. The CPM is a useful way to understand the origins of those biases and select the more credible models for further analysis: Models with unrealistically strong gradients in the CPM pressure pattern generally oversimulate larger wet extremes and produce excessively long dry intervals in the historical period. Thus the hydrologic biases can be traced to the particular aspects of North Pacific atmospheric dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change

Abstract California faces cycles of drought and flooding that are projected to intensify, but these extremes may impact water users across the state differently due to the region's natural hydroclimate variability and complex institutional framework governing water deliveries. To assess these risks, this study introduces a novel exploratory modeling framework informed by paleo and climate‐change based scenarios to better understand how impacts propagate through the Central Valley's complex water system. A stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree‐ring data, produces a large ensemble of daily weather sequences conditioned on drought and flood conditions under the Late Renaissance Megadrought period (1550–1580 CE). Regional climate changes are applied to this weather data and drive hydrologic projections for the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used in an exploratory stress test using the California Food‐Energy‐Water System model, a highly resolved, daily model of water storage and conveyance throughout California's Central Valley. Results show that megadrought conditions lead to unprecedented reductions in inflows and storage at major California reservoirs. Both junior and senior water rights holders experience multi‐year periods of curtailed water deliveries and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets. When megadrought dynamics are combined with climate change, risks for unprecedented depletion of reservoir storage and sustained curtailment of water deliveries across multiple years increase. Asymmetries in risk emerge depending on water source, rights, and access to groundwater banks.

Gupta, Rohini S. [School of Civil and Environmenta↗

DOE OSTI2024

Soil management practices can contribute to net carbon neutrality in California

Stabilizing climate requires reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in land or ocean systems. Soil management practices can reduce GHG emissions or sequester atmospheric CO 2 into inorganic and organic forms. However, whether soil carbon strategies represent a viable and impactful climate mitigation pathway is uncertain. A specific question concerns the role that land-management practices and soil amendments can play in realizing California's ambition for carbon neutrality by 2045. Here we examine the carbon flux impacts of soil conservation (i.e., compost, reduced tillage, cover crop) and enhanced silicate rock weathering (EW) practices at different areal extents of implementation in cropland, grassland, and savanna in California under two climate change cases. We show that with implementation areas of 15% or 50% of private cultivated land, grassland, and savanna in California, soil conservation practices alone can contribute $1.4^{2.1}_{0.7}$% ($-1.8^{-2.7}_{ -0.9}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) and $4.6^{6.9}_{2.3}$% ($-6.0^{-8.9}_{-3.0}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) of the additional emissions reduction needed (beyond previous targets) to meet the 2045 net neutrality goal (-129.3 Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ), respectively, on an average annual basis, including climate uncertainty. Including EW in these scenarios increases the total contributions of management practices to $4.1^{5.6}_{2.5}$% ($-5.2^{-7.3}_{-3.2}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) and $13.5^{18.6}_{8.2}$% ($-17.5^{-24.2}_{-10.7}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ), respectively, of this reduction. This highlights that the extent of implementation area is a major factor in determining benefits and that EW has the potential to make a real contribution to net reduction targets. Results are similar across climate cases, indicating that contemporary field data can be used to make future projections. With EW there remains mechanistic uncertainties, however, such as rock dissolution rate and environmental controls on weathering products, which require additional field research to improve understanding of the technological efficacy of this approach for California's 2045 carbon neutrality goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Anthropogenic warming drives earlier wildfire season onset in California

Annual wildfire area in California has rapidly grown in recent decades, with increasingly negative impacts on people. The fire season is also lengthening, with an earlier onset. This trend has been hypothesized to be driven by anthropogenic warming, but it has yet to be quantitatively attributed to climate drivers. Using a comprehensive fire occurrence dataset, we analyze fire season onset and climate controls on its variability and change during 1992–2020 in 13 California ecoregions. Northern California ecoregions show stronger trends toward earlier onset compared to more arid southern California ecoregions. Onset has trended earlier for all but one ecoregion. Interannual variability of onset is dominated by climate variability and its influence on fuel moisture. Trend attribution inferred from onset-climate relationships suggests that anthropogenic warming advanced fire season onset by 6 to 46 days during 1992–2020 in 11 of 13 ecoregions. Continued warming is expected to further promote earlier fire season onsets.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Genomic surveillance reveals multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into Northern California

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread globally, with >365,000 cases in California as of 17 July 2020. We investigated the genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Northern California from late January to mid-March 2020, using samples from 36 patients spanning nine counties and the Grand Princess cruise ship. Phylogenetic analyses revealed the cryptic introduction of at least seven different SARS-CoV-2 lineages into California, including epidemic WA1 strains associated with Washington state, with lack of a predominant lineage and limited transmission among communities. Lineages associated with outbreak clusters in two counties were defined by a single base substitution in the viral genome. These findings support contact tracing, social distancing, and travel restrictions to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in California and other states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗