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At least 127 records · Page 7

Space transfer vehicle concepts and requirements. Volume 3: Program cost estimates

The Space Transfer Vehicle (STV) Concepts and Requirements Study has been an eighteen-month study effort to develop and analyze concepts for a family of vehicles to evolve from an initial STV system into a Lunar Transportation System (LTS) for use with the Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle (HLLV). The study defined vehicle configurations, facility concepts, and ground and flight operations concepts. This volume reports the program cost estimates results for this portion of the study. The STV Reference Concept described within this document provides a complete LTS system that performs both cargo and piloted Lunar missions.

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Civil Service Workforce Market Supply and the Effect on Cost Estimating Relationship (CERS) that May Effect the Productivity Factors for Future NASA Missions

The upcoming retirement of the Baby Boomers will leave a workforce age gap between the younger generation (the future NASA decision makers) and the gray beards. This paper will reflect on the average age of the workforce across NASA Centers, the Aerospace Industry and other Government Agencies, like DoD. This paper will dig into Productivity and Realization Factors and how they get applied to bi-monthly (payroll) data for true full-time equivalent (FTE) calculations that could be used at each of the NASA Centers and other business systems that are on the forefront in being implemented. This paper offers some comparative costs analysis/solutions, from simple FTE cost-estimating relationships (CERs) versus CERs for monthly time-phasing activities for small research projects that start and get completed within a government fiscal year. This paper will present the results of a parametric study investigating the cost-effectiveness of alternative performance-based CERs and how they get applied into the Center's forward pricing rate proposals (FPRP). True CERs based on the relationship of a younger aged workforce will have some effects on labor rates used in both commercial cost models and other internal home-grown cost models which may impact the productivity factors for future NASA missions.

Sterk, Steve↗

But what will it Cost? The history of NASA cost estimating

Within two years of being chartered in 1958 as an independent agency to conduct civilian pursuits in aeronautics and space, NASA absorbed either wholly or partially the people, facilities, and equipment of several existing organizations. These included the laboratories of the National Advisory Committee of Aeronautics (NACA) at Langley Research Center in Virginia, Ames Research Center in California, and Lewis Research Center in Ohio; the Army Ballistic Missile Agency (ABMA) at Redstone Arsenal Alabama, for which the team of Wernher von Braun worked; and the Department of Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) and their ongoing work on big boosters. These were especially valuable resources to jump start the new agency in light of the shocking success of the Soviet space probe Sputnik in the autumn of the previous year and the corresponding pressure from an impatient American public to produce some response. Along with these inheritances, there came some existing systems engineering and management practices, including project cost estimating methodologies. This paper will briefly trace the origins of those methods and how they evolved within the agency over the past three decades.

Hamaker, Joseph W.↗

Astrometric telescope facility. Preliminary systems definition study. Volume 3: Cost estimate

The results of the Astrometric Telescope Facility (ATF) Preliminary System Definition Study conducted in the period between March and September 1986 are described. The main body of the report consists primarily of the charts presented at the study final review which was held at NASA Ames Research Center on July 30 and 31, 1986. The charts have been revised to reflect the results of that review. Explanations for the charts are provided on the adjoining pages where required. Note that charts which have been changed or added since the review are dated 10/1/86; unchanged charts carry the review date 7/30/86. In addition, a narrative summary is presented of the study results and two appendices. The first appendix is a copy of the ATF Characteristics and Requirements Document generated as part of the study. The second appendix shows the inputs to the Space Station Mission Requirements Data Base submitted in May 1986. The report is issued in three volumes. Volume 1 contains an executive summary of the ATF mission, strawman design, and study results. Volume 2 contains the detailed study information. Volume 3 has the ATF cost estimate, and will have limited distribution.

Sobeck, Charlie↗

Cost estimating Brayton and Stirling engines

Brayton and Stirling engines were analyzed for cost and selling price for production quantities ranging from 1000 to 400,000 units per year. Parts and components were subjected to indepth scrutiny to determine optimum manufacturing processes coupled with make or buy decisions on materials and small parts. Tooling and capital equipment costs were estimated for each detail and/or assembly. For low annual production volumes, the Brayton engine appears to have a lower cost and selling price than the Stirling Engine. As annual production quantities increase, the Stirling becomes a lower cost engine than the Brayton. Both engines could benefit cost wise if changes were made in materials, design and manufacturing process as annual production quantities increase.

Fortgang, H. R.↗

ASCoT 3: Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification in Early Concept Spacecraft Flight Software Cost Estimation

For mission planners and evaluators alike, value in cost models comes from a mean or median prediction, an understanding of the uncertainty on that prediction, and an understanding of model performance. Here we apply advanced statistical and machine learning methods to spacecraft flight software cost, effort, and SLOC estimation, and present the results in the latest version of the Analogy Software Cost Tool (ASCoT). We present in- and out-of-sample performance metrics for our models, each of which incorporate some amount of epistemic uncertainty. ASCoT, hosted on the One NASA Cost Engineering (ONCE) database via the Online NASA Space Estimation Tool (ONSET), was first showcased in 2016 as a number of analogy-based models and methods (kNN and Clustering) to support early project formulation. This ASCoT update improves upon the previous analogic methods by incorporating uncertainty in the data transformations. In particular, we use a Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis (NLPCA) to deal with ordinal data.

Robotic Spacecraft↗

A Project Management Approach to Using Simulation for Cost Estimation on Large, Complex Software Development Projects

It is very difficult for project managers to develop accurate cost and schedule estimates for large, complex software development projects. None of the approaches or tools available today can estimate the true cost of software with any high degree of accuracy early in a project. This paper provides an approach that utilizes a software development process simulation model that considers and conveys the level of uncertainty that exists when developing an initial estimate. A NASA project will be analyzed using simulation and data from the Software Engineering Laboratory to show the benefits of such an approach.

Mizell, Carolyn↗

Development of weight and cost estimates for lifting surfaces with active controls

Equations and methodology were developed for estimating the weight and cost incrementals due to active controls added to the wing and horizontal tail of a subsonic transport airplane. The methods are sufficiently generalized to be suitable for preliminary design. Supporting methodology and input specifications for the weight and cost equations are provided. The weight and cost equations are structured to be flexible in terms of the active control technology (ACT) flight control system specification. In order to present a self-contained package, methodology is also presented for generating ACT flight control system characteristics for the weight and cost equations. Use of the methodology is illustrated.

Anderson, R. D.↗

Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) phase 1. Volume 3: Project cost estimates

The laser atmospheric wind sounder (LAWS) cost modeling activities were initiated in phase 1 to establish the ground rules and cost model that would apply to both phase 1 and phase 2 cost analyses. The primary emphasis in phase 1 was development of a cost model for a LAWS instrument for the Japanese Polar Orbiting Platform (JPOP). However, the Space Station application was also addressed in this model, and elements were included, where necessary, to account for Space Station unique items. The cost model presented in the following sections defines the framework for all LAWS cost modeling. The model is consistent with currently available detail, and can be extended to account for greater detail as the project definition progresses.

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Software Estimates Costs of Testing Rocket Engines

Simulation-Based Cost Model (SiCM) is a computer program that simulates pertinent aspects of the testing of rocket engines for the purpose of estimating the costs of such testing during time intervals specified by its users. A user enters input data for control of simulations; information on the nature of, and activity in, a given testing project; and information on resources. Simulation objects are created on the basis of this input. Costs of the engineering-design, construction, and testing phases of a given project are estimated from numbers and labor rates of engineers and technicians employed in each phase, the duration of each phase; costs of materials used in each phase; and, for the testing phase, the rate of maintenance of the testing facility. The three main outputs of SiCM are (1) a curve, updated at each iteration of the simulation, that shows overall expenditures vs. time during the interval specified by the user; (2) a histogram of the total costs from all iterations of the simulation; and (3) table displaying means and variances of cumulative costs for each phase from all iterations. Other outputs include spending curves for each phase.

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Estimating costs and performance of systems for machine processing of remotely sensed data

This paper outlines a method for estimating computer processing times and costs incurred in producing information products from digital remotely sensed data. The method accounts for both computation and overhead, and may be applied to any serial computer. The method is applied to estimate the cost and computer time involved in producing Level II Land Use and Vegetative Cover Maps for a five-state midwestern region. The results show that the amount of data to be processed overloads some example computer systems, but that the processing is feasible on others.

Ballard, R. J.↗

A Life-Cycle Cost Estimating Methodology for NASA-Developed Air Traffic Control Decision Support Tools

This paper describes the development of a life-cycle cost (LCC) estimating methodology for air traffic control Decision Support Tools (DSTs) under development by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), using a combination of parametric, analogy, and expert opinion methods. There is no one standard methodology and technique that is used by NASA or by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for LCC estimation of prospective Decision Support Tools. Some of the frequently used methodologies include bottom-up, analogy, top-down, parametric, expert judgement, and Parkinson's Law. The developed LCC estimating methodology can be visualized as a three-dimensional matrix where the three axes represent coverage, estimation, and timing. This paper focuses on the three characteristics of this methodology that correspond to the three axes.

Wang, Jianzhong Jay↗

Software Estimates Costs of Testing Rocket Engines

Simulation-Based Cost Model (SiCM), a discrete event simulation developed in Extend , simulates pertinent aspects of the testing of rocket propulsion test articles for the purpose of estimating the costs of such testing during time intervals specified by its users. A user enters input data for control of simulations; information on the nature of, and activity in, a given testing project; and information on resources. Simulation objects are created on the basis of this input. Costs of the engineering-design, construction, and testing phases of a given project are estimated from numbers and labor rates of engineers and technicians employed in each phase, the duration of each phase; costs of materials used in each phase; and, for the testing phase, the rate of maintenance of the testing facility. The three main outputs of SiCM are (1) a curve, updated at each iteration of the simulation, that shows overall expenditures vs. time during the interval specified by the user; (2) a histogram of the total costs from all iterations of the simulation; and (3) table displaying means and variances of cumulative costs for each phase from all iterations. Other outputs include spending curves for each phase.

Smith, C. L.↗