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120 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Realistic Covariance Generation for the GPM Spacecraft

A covariance realism process for NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) spacecraft is detailed. The GPM spacecraft is in a low earth orbit, and performs collision avoidance maneuvers few times a year. Currently GPM is below the International Space Station (ISS). So, in addition to cataloged debris objects, GPM must contend with smallsat/cubesat objects that are deployed from the ISS. Both operational scenarios require complete knowledge of the expected GPM prediction errors as a function of time. In this study, we present a method for generating realistic predicted covariance that uses linear propagation of the covariance with the addition of process noise. Further analyses are presented for the process noise ''tuning'' that generates an inflation factor based on the observed error statistics of the predictive satellite trajectories when compared to the definitive ones. Different tuning strategies are considered and compared via a Goodness-of-Fit testing for the Gaussian properties of the scaled covariance. SpaceNav's realistic covariance generation approach takes into account the contribution of predicted maneuver errors in the increased propagation uncertainty. Corresponding maneuver uncertainty is injected into the state uncertainty, and is used within the collision avoidance process to determine the collision risk for close approach events that follow a maneuver. This is a critical step in the maneuver planning process that provides the satellite operator with an accurate quantification of the collision probability for planned maneuvers. Using this information, an informed decision can be made to proceed with a maneuver if the collision risk is acceptable. This approach is validated by Monte-Carlo simulations and results are presented.

spacecraft uncertainty propagation↗
NASA NTRS2003

Modeling, Analyzing, and Mitigating Dissonance Between Alerting Systems

Alerting systems are becoming pervasive in process operations, which may result in the potential for dissonance or conflict in information from different alerting systems that suggests different threat levels and/or actions to resolve hazards. Little is currently available to help in predicting or solving the dissonance problem. This thesis presents a methodology to model and analyze dissonance between alerting systems, providing both a theoretical foundation for understanding dissonance and a practical basis from which specific problems can be addressed. A state-space representation of multiple alerting system operation is generalized that can be tailored across a variety of applications. Based on the representation, two major causes of dissonance are identified: logic differences and sensor error. Additionally, several possible types of dissonance are identified. A mathematical analysis method is developed to identify the conditions for dissonance originating from logic differences. A probabilistic analysis methodology is developed to estimate the probability of dissonance originating from sensor error, and to compare the relative contribution to dissonance of sensor error against the contribution from logic differences. A hybrid model, which describes the dynamic behavior of the process with multiple alerting systems, is developed to identify dangerous dissonance space, from which the process can lead to disaster. Methodologies to avoid or mitigate dissonance are outlined. Two examples are used to demonstrate the application of the methodology. First, a conceptual In-Trail Spacing example is presented. The methodology is applied to identify the conditions for possible dissonance, to identify relative contribution of logic difference and sensor error, and to identify dangerous dissonance space. Several proposed mitigation methods are demonstrated in this example. In the second example, the methodology is applied to address the dissonance problem between two air traffic alert and avoidance systems: the existing Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) vs. the proposed Airborne Conflict Management system (ACM). Conditions on ACM resolution maneuvers are identified to avoid dynamic dissonance between TCAS and ACM. Also included in this report is an Appendix written by Lee Winder about recent and continuing work on alerting systems design. The application of Markov Decision Process (MDP) theory to complex alerting problems is discussed and illustrated with an abstract example system.

Song, Lixia↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Geometric Analysis to Protect Manned Assets from Newly Launched Objects - COLA Gap Analysis

A safety risk was identified for the International Space Station (ISS) by The Aerospace Corporation following the launch of GPS IIR-20 (March 24, 2009), when the spent upper stage of the launch vehicle unexpectedly crossed inside the ISS notification box shortly after launch. This event highlighted a 56-hour vulnerability period following the end of the launch Collision Avoidance (COLA) process where the ISS would be unable to react to a conjunction with a newly launched object. Current launch COLA processes screen each launched object across the launch window to determine if an object's nominal trajectory is predicted to pass within 200 km of the ISS (or any other manned/mannable object), resulting in a launch time closure. These launch COLA screens are performed from launch through separation plus I 00 minutes. Once the objects are in orbit, they are cataloged and evaluated as part of routine on-orbit conjunction assessment processes. However, as the GPS IIR-20 scenario illustrated, there is a vulnerability period in the time line between the end of launch COLA coverage and the beginning of standard on-orbit COLA assessment activities. The gap between existing launch and on-orbit COLA processes is driven by the time it takes to track and catalog a launched object, identify a conjunction, and plan and execute a collision avoidance maneuver. For the ISS, the total time required to accomplish an of these steps is 56 hours. To protect human lives, NASA/JSC has requested that an US launches take additional steps to protect the ISS during this "COLA gap" period. The uncertainty in the state of a spent upper stage can be quite large after all bums are complete and all remaining propellants are expelled to safe the stage. Simply extending the launch COLA process an additional 56 hours is not a viable option as the 3-sigma position uncertainty will far exceed the 200 km miss-distance criterion. Additionally, performing a probability of collision (Pc) analysis over this period is also not practical due to the limiting effects of these large orbit state uncertainties. An estimated upper bound for Pc for a typical spent upper stage if nominally aligned for a direct broadside collision with the ISS is only on the order of 10-6. For a smaller manned object such as a Soyuz capsule, the risk level decreases to an order of 10'8 . In comparison, the Air Force Range policy (AFI 91-217) for launch COLAs would only eliminate launch opportunities when conjunctions with objects exceed a Pc of 10'5 This paper demonstrates a conservative geometry-based methodology that may be used to determine if launch opportunities pose a threat to the ISS during the COLA gap period. The NASA Launch Services Program at Kennedy Space Center has developed this COLA gap analysis method and employed it fQr three NASA missions to identify potential ISS conjunctions and corresponding launch window closures during the 56-hour at-risk period. In the analysis, for each launch opportunity, the nominal trajectory of the spent upper stage and the orbit state of the ISS are propagated over the 56 hour period. Each time the upper stage crosses the orbit plane of the ISS, the relative radial and argument of latitude separations are calculated. A window cutout is identified if these separation differences fall within a mission-specific violation box, which is determined from the evaluation of a Monte Carlo dispersions analysis that quantifies the potential variation in the upper stage radial and argument of latitude differences. This paper details the results of these analyses and their impacts to each mission.

Hametz, Mark E.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Asymmetric Expansion of the Youngest Galactic Supernova Remnant G1.9+0.3

The youngest Galactic supernova remnant (SNR) G1.9+0.3, produced by a (probable) SN Ia that exploded approximately 1900 CE, is strongly asymmetric at radio wavelengths, much brighter in the north, but bilaterally symmetric in X-rays. We present the results of X-ray expansion measurements that illuminate the origin of the radio asymmetry. We confirm the mean expansion rate (2011-2015) of 0.58% per yr, but large spatial variations are present. Using the nonparametric 'Demons' method, we measure the velocity field throughout the entire SNR, finding that motions vary by a factor of 5, from 0.''09 to 0.''44 per yr. The slowest shocks are at the outer boundary of the bright northern radio rim, with velocities v(sub s) as low as 3600 km per sec (for an assumed distance of 8.5 kpc), much less than v(sub s) = 12,000-13,000 km per sec along the X-ray-bright major axis. Such strong deceleration of the northern blast wave most likely arises from the collision of SN ejecta with a much denser than average ambient medium there. This asymmetric ambient medium naturally explains the radio asymmetry. In several locations, significant morphological changes and strongly nonradial motions are apparent. The spatially integrated X-ray flux continues to increase with time. Based on Chandra observations spanning 8.3 yr, we measure its increase at 1.3% +/- 0.8% per yr. The SN ejecta are likely colliding with the asymmetric circumstellar medium ejected by the SN progenitor prior to its explosion.

ISM: individual objects (G1.9+0.3) ISM: individual↗
NASA NTRS1989

Rotational and vibrational nonequilibrium effects in rarefied, hypersonic flow

Results are reported for an investigation into the methods by which energy transfer is calculated in the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo method. Description is made of a recently developed energy exchange model that deals with the translational and rotational modes. A new model for simulating the transfer of energy between the translational and vibrational modes is also explained. This model allows the vibrational relaxation time to follow the temperature dependence predicted by the Landau-Teller theory at moderate temperatures. For temperatures in excess of about 8000K the vibrational model is extended to include an empirical result for the relaxation time. The effect of introducing these temperature dependent collision numbers into the DSMC technique is assessed by making calculations representative of the stagnation streamline of a hypersonic space vehicle. Both thermal and chemical nonequilibrium effects are included while the flow conditions have been chosen such that ionization and radiation may be neglected. The introduction of these new models is found to significantly affect the degree of thermal nonequilibrium observed in the flowfield. Larger, and more widely ranging, differences in the results obtained with the different energy exchange probabilities are found when a significant amount of internal energy is included in the calculation of chemical nonequilibrium.

Boyd, Iain D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Collision lifetimes and impact statistics of near-Earth asteroids

We have examined the lifetimes of Near-Earth asteroids (NEA's) by directly computing the collision probabilities with other asteroids and with the terrestrial planets. We compare these to the dynamical lifetimes, and to collisional lifetimes assumed by other workers. We discuss the implications of the differences. The lifetimes of NEA's are important because, along with the statistics of craters on the Earth and Moon, they help us to compute the number of NEA's and the rate at which new NEA's are brought to the vicinity of the Earth. Assuming that the NEA population is in steady-state, the lifetimes determine the flux of new bodies needed to replenish the population. Earlier estimates of the lifetimes ignored (or incompletely accounted for) the differences in the velocities of asteroids as they move in their orbits, so our results differ from (for example) Greenberg and Chapman (1983, Icarus 55, 455) and Wetherill (1988, Icarus 76, 1) by factors of 2 to 10. We have computed the collision rates and relative velocities of NEA's with each other, the main-belt asteroids, and the terrestrial planets, using the corrected method described by Bottke et. al. (1992, GRL, in press). We find that NEA's typically have shorter collisional lifetimes than do main-belt asteroids of the same size, due to their high eccentricities, which typically give them aphelia in the main belt. Consequently, they spend a great deal of time in the main belt, and are moving much slower than the bodies around them, making them 'sitting ducks' for impacts with other asteroids. They cross the paths of many objects, and their typical collision velocities are much higher (10-15 km/s) than the collision velocities (5 km/s) among objects within the main belt. These factors combine to give them substantially shorter lifetimes than had been previously estimated.

Bottke, W. F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Dissociation and Internal Excitation of Molecular Nitrogen Due to N + N2 Collisions Using Direct Molecular Simulation

In this work we present a molecular level study of N2+N collisions, focusing on excitation of internal energy modes and non-equilibrium dissociation. The computation technique used here is the direct molecular simulation (DMS) method and the molecular interactions have been modeled using an ab−initio potential energy surface (PES) developed at NASA's Ames Research Center. We carried out vibrational excitation calculations between 5000K and 30000K and found that the characteristic vibrational excitation time for the N + N2 process was an order of magnitude lower than that predicted by the Millikan and White correlation. It is observed that during vibrational excitation the high energy tail of the vibrational energy distribution gets over populated first and the lower energy levels get populated as the system evolves. It is found that the non-equilibrium dissociation rate coefficients for the N + N2 process are larger than those for the N2 + N2 process. This is attributed to the non-equilibrium vibrational energy distributions for the N + N2 process being less depleted than that for the N2 +N2 process. For an isothermal simulation we find that the probability of dissociation goes as 1/T(sub tr) for molecules with internal energy (epsilon(sub int)) less than approximately 9.9eV, while for molecules with epsilon (sub int) greater than 9.9eV the dissociation probability was weakly dependent on translational temperature of the system. We compared non-equilibrium dissociation rate coefficients and characteristic vibrational excitation times obtained by using the ab-initio PES developed at NASA's Ames Research Center to those obtained by using an ab-initio PES developed at the University of Minnesota. Good agreement was found between the macroscopic properties and molecular level description of the system obtained by using the two PESs.

Grover, Maninder S.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Advanced Multi-Phase Flow CFD Model Development for Solid Rocket Motor Flowfield Analysis

It is known that the simulations of solid rocket motor internal flow field with AL-based propellants require complex multi-phase turbulent flow model. The objective of this study is to develop an advanced particulate multi-phase flow model which includes the effects of particle dynamics, chemical reaction and hot gas flow turbulence. The inclusion of particle agglomeration, particle/gas reaction and mass transfer, particle collision, coalescence and breakup mechanisms in modeling the particle dynamics will allow the proposed model to realistically simulate the flowfield inside a solid rocket motor. The Finite Difference Navier-Stokes numerical code FDNS is used to simulate the steady-state multi-phase particulate flow field for a 3-zone 2-D axisymmetric ASRM model and a 6-zone 3-D ASRM model at launch conditions. The 2-D model includes aft-end cavity and submerged nozzle. The 3-D model represents the whole ASRM geometry, including additional grain port area in the gas cavity and two inhibitors. FDNS is a pressure based finite difference Navier-Stokes flow solver with time-accurate adaptive second-order upwind schemes, standard and extended k-epsilon models with compressibility corrections, multi zone body-fitted formulations, and turbulence particle interaction model. Eulerian/Lagrangian multi-phase solution method is applied for multi-zone mesh. To simulate the chemical reaction, penalty function corrected efficient finite-rate chemistry integration method is used in FDNS. For the AL particle combustion rate, the Hermsen correlation is employed. To simulate the turbulent dispersion of particles, the Gaussian probability distribution with standard deviation equal to (2k/3)(exp 1/2) is used for the random turbulent velocity components. The computational results reveal that the flow field near the juncture of aft-end cavity and the submerged nozzle is very complex. The effects of the turbulent particles affect the flow field significantly and provide better prediction of the ASRM performance. The multi-phase flow analysis using the FDNS code in the present research can be used as a design tool for solid rocket motor applications.

Liaw, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2024

Quantification of Uncertainty and Risk Sensitivity for Safety of Emerging Operations

The growing need to develop and deploy small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAVs) for various applications in the airspace necessitates reliable tools to accurately predict the flight trajectories of the sUAVs. The knowledge of the predicted trajectories help decision makers anticipate potential conflict, assess the risk, and take appropriate risk mitigation actions. In addition, uncertainties in vehicle models, weather, and controller action further highlights the need for reliable prediction tools. In this project, the application of mixed sparse grid-based quadrature and generalized polynomial chaos(gPC) expansion method for uncertainty quantification and collision assessment in air traffic consisting of fixed-wing small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAV) was studied. From the results obtained, it can be concluded that this provides a reliable framework to carry out quantitative conflict assessment in an unmanned air traffic, which when employed, can improve the functionalities of the unmanned traffic management system. It was observed that the results from the gPC expansion framework developed in the project can be utilized to conduct rapid probabilistic collision assessment for near real-time unmanned traffic management in the airspace. From the vehicle models, position updates, and wind-field data, a priori gPC based 3-σcon-fidence ellipses can provide estimates of potential conflict at some future instants. The computational costs scaled linearly when the uncertain inputs were fewer. Further, the largest allowable distribution of para-metric uncertainties that leads to the smallest risk of collision in traffic of small unmanned aerial vehicles could be calculated. The time of closest approach between two sUAVs can be established paving way for development of proactive mitigation strategies. The separation between the sUAVs was found to be most significantly affected by uncertainties in the maximum available thrusts, zero-lift drag coefficients, and wing planform areas of the sUAVs. The study of uncertain wind-fields indicated that a heterogeneous traffic mix resulted in an increased probability of conflict. Increased measurement update rate reduced the uncertain-ties in the trajectories of the vehicles, further reducing the probability of conflict but rapid updates of all vehicles in the airspace poses a stringent communication limitation. The gPC framework also provided the means to analyze vehicle impact (crash region) due to loss of control resulting from actuator failure in sUAS traffic, essentially to predict impact and crash zones for representative vehicles. The predicted regions when compared with non-participant density, provides a means to develop an early mitigation strategy, should the sUAV detect an imminent actuator failure.

Rajnish Bhusal↗
NASA NTRS2002

Formation and Migration of Trans-Neptunian Objects

We consider that trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) with diameter d greater than 100 kilometers moving now in not very eccentric orbits could be formed directly by the compression of large rarefied dust condensations (with a greater than 30 AU), but not by the accretion of smaller solid planetesimals. Probably, some planetesimals with d approximately 100- 1000 kilometers in the feeding zone of the giant planets and even large main-belt asteroids also could be formed directly by such compression. Some smaller objects (TNOs, planetesimals, asteroids) could be debris of larger objects, and other such objects could be formed directly by compression of condensations. A small portion of planetesimals from the feeding zone of the giant planets that entered into the trans-Neptunian region could left in eccentrical orbits beyond Neptune and became so called "scattered objects". Our computer runs in which gravitational interactions of bodies were taken into account with the use of the spheres method, showed that the embryos of Uranus and Neptune could increase their semimajor axes from less than 10 AU to their present values, moving permanently in orbits with small eccentricities, due to gravitational interactions with the migrating planetesimals. Later on, Thommes et al. considered a similar model using direct numerical integration. The total amount of water delivered to the Earth during the formation of the giant, planets was about the mass of water in the Earth oceans. The end of such bombardment could be caused mainly by the planetesimals that became scattered objects. For the present mass of the trans-Neptunian belt, the collisional lifetime of 1-kilometer TNO is about the age of the Solar system, but only a small portion (less than 1%) of 100-km TNOs could be destroyed during this age. The probability of destruction of a typical TNO (with 30 less than a,less than 50 AU) by scattered objects can be of the same order of magnitude as that by typical TNOs. TNOs could be even more often destroyed during planet formation than during last 4 Gyr. The analysis of the results of the orbital evolution of Jupiter-crossing objects (JCOs) and TNOs showed that, in principle, the trans-Neptunian belt can provide up to 100% of Earth-crossing objects, but, of course, some of them came from the main asteroid belt. Most of the collisions of former JCOs with the Earth were from orbits with aphelia inside Jupiter's orbit and belonged to a small portion of objects which moved in such orbits for a long time. About 1 of 300 JCOs collided with the Sun. The ratio of the total mass of icy planetesimals that migrated from the feeding zone of the giant planets and collided with the planet to the mass of this planet was greater (by a factor of 3 in our runs) for Mars than that for Earth and Venus.

Ipatov, S. I.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Analytical Assessment of Simultaneous Parallel Approach Feasibility from Total System Error

In a simultaneous paired approach to closely-spaced parallel runways, a pair of aircraft flies in close proximity on parallel approach paths. The aircraft pair must maintain a longitudinal separation within a range that avoids wake encounters and, if one of the aircraft blunders, avoids collision. Wake avoidance defines the rear gate of the longitudinal separation. The lead aircraft generates a wake vortex that, with the aid of crosswinds, can travel laterally onto the path of the trail aircraft. As runway separation decreases, the wake has less distance to traverse to reach the path of the trail aircraft. The total system error of each aircraft further reduces this distance. The total system error is often modeled as a probability distribution function. Therefore, Monte-Carlo simulations are a favored tool for assessing a "safe" rear-gate. However, safety for paired approaches typically requires that a catastrophic wake encounter be a rare one-in-a-billion event during normal operation. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation to assert this event rarity with confidence requires a massive number of runs. Such large runs do not lend themselves to rapid turn-around during the early stages of investigation when the goal is to eliminate the infeasible regions of the solution space and to perform trades among the independent variables in the operational concept. One can employ statistical analysis using simplified models more efficiently to narrow the solution space and identify promising trades for more in-depth investigation using Monte-Carlo simulations. These simple, analytical models not only have to address the uncertainty of the total system error but also the uncertainty in navigation sources used to alert an abort of the procedure. This paper presents a method for integrating total system error, procedure abort rates, avionics failures, and surveillance errors into a statistical analysis that identifies the likely feasible runway separations for simultaneous paired approaches.

Madden, Michael M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Potential Multi-Component Structure of the Debris Disk Around HIP 17439 Revealed by Herschel DUNES

Context. The dust observed in debris disks is produced through collisions of larger bodies left over from the planet/planetesimal formation process. Spatially resolving these disks permits to constrain their architecture and thus that of the underlying planetary/planetesimal system. Aims. Our Herschel open time key program DUNES aims at detecting and characterizing debris disks around nearby, sun-like stars. In addition to the statistical analysis of the data, the detailed study of single objects through spatially resolving the disk and detailed modeling of the data is a main goal of the project. Methods. We obtained the first observations spatially resolving the debris disk around the sun-like star HIP 17439 (HD 23484) using the instruments PACS and SPIRE on board the Herschel Space Observatory. Simultaneous multi-wavelength modeling of these data together with ancillary data from the literature is presented. Results. A standard single component disk model fails to reproduce the major axis radial profiles at 70 μm, 100 μm, and 160 μm simultaneously. Moreover, the best-fit parameters derived from such a model suggest a very broad disk extending from few au up to few hundreds of au from the star with a nearly constant surface density which seems physically unlikely. However, the constraints from both the data and our limited theoretical investigation are not strong enough to completely rule out this model. An alternative, more plausible, and better fitting model of the system consists of two rings of dust at approx. 30 au and 90 au, respectively, while the constraints on the parameters of this model are weak due to its complexity and intrinsic degeneracies. Conclusions. The disk is probably composed of at least two components with different spatial locations (but not necessarily detached), while a single, broad disk is possible, but less likely. The two spatially well-separated rings of dust in our best-fit model suggest the presence of at least one high mass planet or several low-mass planets clearing the region between the two rings from planetesimals and dust.

sun-like stars↗