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At least 127 records · Page 7

SEAFORML (Smart Exploration and Analysis For Optimal and Robust Machine Learning)

The poster discusses data analysis of the WAVgraph database and applied machine learning methods for it. The database is a long-term project that seeks to be a comprehensive repository of information on cyber threats and is updated regularly. It was previously unanalyzed and unexplored. The goal was to learn more about it and its contents in order to have a better understanding and enable better use. The data analysis and discovery enabled further exploration through natural language processing, similarity, and clustering methods. The poster shows some of the insights from the analysis and explains the methods used for the machine learning applications.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Machine Learning Algorithms for Matching Theories, Simulations, and Observations in Cosmology (Final Project)

The search for simple and elegant equations to explain and predict observable natural phenomena has been a driving force in scientific theory for several centuries. The great successes of Newton's laws, Maxwell's equations, the Schrodinger equation, and the theory of General Relativity have encouraged this perspective, and perhaps a beautiful equation comprising a “theory of everything” remains to be discovered. But now scientists are grappling with systems of ever-increasing complexity, fraught with nonlinearity, and with the quantities of interest often only indirectly observed. Nature may resist a simple description, and the most important discoveries of the next century may be complex theories with countless variables and parameters. The era of big data opens up a promising new approach to scientific discovery in this setting. The predictions of modern theories, even if complex or nonlinear, can be examined through detailed and computationally-intensive simulations that take days or weeks to run and fill petabytes of disk space. The upcoming generation of scientific instruments will provide petabytes of observations at unprecedented resolution and depth. The challenge is to compare data to simulations so as to test theories and identify those that best match the observations. The data are numerous and rich but are subject to noise and various systematic biases. The simulations are large and detailed but are so costly that the effective sample size is small. Moreover, the mapping from data to simulation to the parameters of interest is typically complicated and ill-conditioned. Although these challenges, and the solutions we propose, apply across the sciences, we will ground our efforts by focusing on cosmology. Here, we are truly entering the era of big data in several senses. Ever larger experiments survey larger and larger cosmological volumes, resulting in enormous amounts of pixel data to process and extract the information of cosmological interest. These include large imaging surveys, which collect all the light in broad wavelength ranges over significant fractions of the sky, and spectroscopic surveys, which measure the light as a function of wavelength to map out 3D distances. These experiments are designed to shed light on the big unanswered questions in cosmology. Distilling the petabytes of data into observed quantities for comparison with theory is a daunting task. But these large experiments do not only result in large amounts of data to analyze: if we wish to compare to theories of physics, then we need increasingly extensive predictions for the observed quantities as well, which requires ever-larger cosmological simulations that take substantial -- and at times prohibitive -- computational resources to produce. Our goal is to develop statistical and machine learning methods for using observed and simulated data to advance machine learning with applications cosmology. In particular, we focus our research efforts on the following tasks: The challenge for automated science is that it is computationally impossible and statistically dangerous to consider every possible model in order to find the best one. We will develop Bayesian Optimization based active-learning methods that accelerate both the execution of the simulations and the search for best-fitting parameters. The key idea is to make the simulations adaptive -- across resolutions, time, and parameters -- using the data to search as the simulation runs; Most ML methods operate on simple finite dimensional feature vectors. However, many cosmology and other science applications require ML methods that can operate on more complex objects as inputs or outputs such as functions, distributions, or sets and point clouds. Our goal is to develop efficient ML methods for this problem and demonstrate their applicability in Cosmology, Astrophysics, and other science problems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Building complex event processing capability for intelligent environmental monitoring

Rapid evolution of Internet-of-Things is driving the increased deployment of smart sensors in environmental applications, contributing to many big data characteristics of environmental monitoring. Most of the current environmental monitoring systems are not designed to handle real-time datastreams, and the best practices for datastream processing and predictive analytics are yet to be established. This work presents a complex event processing (CEP) engine for detecting anomalies in real time, and demonstrates it using a series of real monitoring data from the geological carbon sequestration domain. We show that the service-based CEP engine is instrumental for enabling environmental intelligent monitoring systems to ingest heterogeneous datastreams with scalable performance. Our CEP framework requires minimal coding from the user and can be easily extended to other similar environmental monitoring applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analytical Cost Metrics : Days of Future Past

As we move towards the exascale era, the new architectures must be capable of running the massive computational problems efficiently. Scientists and researchers are continuously investing in tuning the performance of extreme-scale computational problems. These problems arise in almost all areas of computing, ranging from big data analytics, artificial intelligence, search, machine learning, virtual/augmented reality, computer vision, image/signal processing to computational science and bioinformatics. With Moore’s law driving the evolution of hardware platforms towards exascale, the dominant performance metric (time efficiency) has now expanded to also incorporate power/energy efficiency. Therefore the major challenge that we face in computing systems research is: “how to solve massive-scale computational problems in the most time/power/energy efficient manner?”

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analytics-at-scale of Sensor Data for Digital Monitoring in Nuclear Plants (3 rd Annual Report)

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This report primarily focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 ± 0.014, 0.0026 ± 0, and 0.063 ± 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure. This report summarizes the Fiscal Year 2021 research progress encompassing the (1) data cleaning and feature selection necessary for ML applications; (2) development of short-term forecasting models to predict future plant process parameters for both single and multiple time steps ahead; and (3) validation of the feature selection methods and short-term forecasting models given new data from different systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Development of Short-Term Forecasting Models Using Plant Asset Data and Feature Selection

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This paper focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 +- 0.014, 0.0026 +- 0, and 0.063 +- 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Predictive Data-driven Platform for Subsurface Energy Production

Subsurface energy activities such as unconventional resource recovery, enhanced geothermal energy systems, and geologic carbon storage require fast and reliable methods to account for complex, multiphysical processes in heterogeneous fractured and porous media. Although reservoir simulation is considered the industry standard for simulating these subsurface systems with injection and/or extraction operations, reservoir simulation requires spatio-temporal “Big Data” into the simulation model, which is typically a major challenge during model development and computational phase. In this work, we developed and applied various deep neural network-based approaches to (1) process multiscale image segmentation, (2) generate ensemble members of drainage networks, flow channels, and porous media using deep convolutional generative adversarial network, (3) construct multiple hybrid neural networks such as convolutional LSTM and convolutional neural network-LSTM to develop fast and accurate reduced order models for shale gas extraction, and (4) physics-informed neural network and deep Q-learning for flow and energy production. We hypothesized that physicsbased machine learning/deep learning can overcome the shortcomings of traditional machine learning methods where data-driven models have faltered beyond the data and physical conditions used for training and validation. We improved and developed novel approaches to demonstrate that physics-based ML can allow us to incorporate physical constraints (e.g., scientific domain knowledge) into ML framework. Outcomes of this project will be readily applicable for many energy and national security problems that are particularly defined by multiscale features and network systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Time resolved surface photovoltage measurements using a big data capture approach to KPFM

Optoelectronic behavior in materials such as organic/inorganic hybrid perovskites depend on a complex interplay between fast (electronic) and slower (ionic) processes. These processes are thought to be influenced by structural inhomogeneities (e.g. interfaces and grain boundaries) bringing forward the necessity for development of techniques capable of correlating nanostructure and photo-transport behavior. While Kelvin probe force microscopy (KPFM) is ideally suited to map surface potentials on relevant length scales, it lacks sufficient temporal resolution to extract the meaningful system dynamics. Here, we develop a time resolved surface photovoltage (SPV) measurement based on full information capture of the photodetector stream during open loop KPFM operation. G-Mode, or G-KPFM allows quantification of SPV with microsecond temporal and nanoscale spatial resolution. Using this technique, we observe concurrent spatial and fast temporal variations in the SPV generated across a methylammonium lead bromide (MAPbBr3) thin film, a possible indicator relating microstructure with heterogenous photo-transport behavior. Here, we further demonstrate the advantage of adopting big data analytics including unsupervised clustering methods to quickly discern spatial variability in the information rich SPV dataset. Beyond G-KPFM, such clustering methods will be useful for interpretation of the multidimensional datasets arising from the growing number of time resolved KPFM approaches now available.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Full data acquisition in Kelvin Probe Force Microscopy: Mapping dynamic electric phenomena in real space

Kelvin probe force microscopy (KPFM) has provided deep insights into the role local electronic, ionic and electrochemical processes play on the global functionality of materials and devices, even down to the atomic scale. Conventional KPFM utilizes heterodyne detection and bias feedback to measure the contact potential difference (CPD) between tip and sample. This measurement paradigm, however, permits only partial recovery of the information encoded in bias- and time-dependent electrostatic interactions between the tip and sample and effectively down-samples the cantilever response to a single measurement of CPD per pixel. This level of detail is insufficient for electroactive materials, devices, or solid-liquid interfaces, where non-linear dielectrics are present or spurious electrostatic events are possible. Here, we simulate and experimentally validate a novel approach for spatially resolved KPFM capable of a full information transfer of the dynamic electric processes occurring between tip and sample. General acquisition mode, or G-Mode, adopts a big data approach utilising high speed detection, compression, and storage of the raw cantilever deflection signal in its entirety at high sampling rates (> 4 MHz), providing a permanent record of the tip trajectory. We develop a range of methodologies for analysing the resultant large multidimensional datasets involving classical, physics-based and information-based approaches. Physics-based analysis of G-Mode KPFM data recovers the parabolic bias dependence of the electrostatic force for each cycle of the excitation voltage, leading to a multidimensional dataset containing spatial and temporal dependence of the CPD and capacitance channels. We use multivariate statistical methods to reduce data volume and separate the complex multidimensional data sets into statistically significant components that can then be mapped onto separate physical mechanisms. Overall, G-Mode KPFM offers a new paradigm to study dynamic electric phenomena in electroactive interfaces as well as offer a promising approach to extend KPFM to solid-liquid interfaces.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

On‐site surrogates for large‐scale calibration

Abstract Motivated by a computer model calibration problem from the oil and gas industry, involving the design of a honeycomb seal, we develop a new Bayesian methodology to cope with limitations in the canonical apparatus stemming from several factors. We propose a new strategy of on‐site design and surrogate modeling for a computer simulator acting on a high‐dimensional input space that, although relatively speedy, is prone to numerical instabilities, missing data, and nonstationary dynamics. Our aim is to strike a balance between data‐faithful modeling and computational tractability in a calibration framework—tailoring the computer model to a limited field experiment. Situating our on‐site surrogates within the canonical calibration apparatus requires updates to that framework. We describe a novel yet intuitive Bayesian setup that carefully decomposes otherwise prohibitively large matrices by exploiting the sparse blockwise structure. Empirical illustrations demonstrate that this approach performs well on toy data and our motivating honeycomb example.

Huang, Jiangeng↗

Using machine learning and artificial intelligence to improve model-data integrated earth system model predictions of water and carbon cycle extremes

The research proposed here focuses on improving the predictive power of the land component of earth system models (ESMs) using (1) model-data fusion enabled by machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), (2) predictive modeling through the combination of ML, AI, and big-data (comprising both model output and observations), and (3) insight of ESM structure and process mechanisms gleaned from complex data using ML and AI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Vertical deformation at western part of Sumatra

This research tries to make advancement in GPS signal processing to estimate the interseismic vertical deformation field at western part of Sumatra Island. The data derived by Continuous Global Positioning System (CGPS) from Badan Informasi Geospasial (BIG) between 2010 and 2012. GPS Analyze at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (GAMIT) software and Global Kalman Filter (GLOBK) software are used to process the GPS signal to estimate the vertical velocities of the CGPS station. In order to minimize noise due to atmospheric delay, Vienna Mapping Function 1 (VMF1) is used as atmospheric parameter model and include daily IONEX file provided by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) as well. It improves GAMIT daily position accuracy up to 0.8 mm. In a second step of processing, the GLOBK is used in order to estimate site positions and velocities in the ITRF08 reference frame. The result shows that the uncertainties of estimated displacement velocity at all CGPS stations are smaller than 1.5 mm/yr. The subsided deformation patterns are seen at the northern and southern part of west Sumatra. The vertical deformation at northern part of west Sumatra indicates postseismic phase associated with the 2010 and 2012 Northern Sumatra earthquakes and also the long-term postseismic associated with the 2004 and 2005 Northern Sumatra earthquakes. The uplifted deformation patterns are seen from Bukit Tinggi to Seblat which indicate a long-term interseismic phase after the 2007 Bengkulu earthquake and 2010 Mentawai earthquake. GANO station shows a subsidence at rate 12.25 mm/yr, indicating the overriding Indo-Australia Plate which is dragged down by the subducting Southeast Asian Plate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Special Issue: Geostatistics and Machine Learning

Abstract Recent years have seen a steady growth in the number of papers that apply machine learning methods to problems in the earth sciences. Although they have different origins, machine learning and geostatistics share concepts and methods. For example, the kriging formalism can be cast in the machine learning framework of Gaussian process regression. Machine learning, with its focus on algorithms and ability to seek, identify, and exploit hidden structures in big data sets, is providing new tools for exploration and prediction in the earth sciences. Geostatistics, on the other hand, offers interpretable models of spatial (and spatiotemporal) dependence. This special issue on Geostatistics and Machine Learning aims to investigate applications of machine learning methods as well as hybrid approaches combining machine learning and geostatistics which advance our understanding and predictive ability of spatial processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

UQ Methods for HPDA and Cybersecurity Models, Data, and Use Cases

This report describes our initial research to quantify uncertainties in the identification and characterization of possible attack states in a network. As a result, we should be able to estimate the current state in which the network is operating, based on a wide variety of network data, and attach a defensible measure of confidence to these state estimates. The output of this research will be new uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to help develop a process for model development and apply UQ to characterize attacks/adversaries, create an understanding of the degree to which methods scale to "big" data, and offer methods for addressing model approaches with regard to validation and accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Zodiac: A Comprehensive Depiction of Genetic Interactions in Cancer by Integrating TCGA Data

Background: Genetic interactions play a critical role in cancer development. Existing knowledge about cancer genetic interactions is incomplete, especially lacking evidences derived from large-scale cancer genomics data. The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) produces multimodal measurements across genomics and features of thousands of tumors, which provide an unprecedented opportunity to investigate the interplays of genes in cancer. Methods: We introduce Zodiac, a computational tool and resource to integrate existing knowledge about cancer genetic interactions with new information contained in TCGA data. It is an evolution of existing knowledge by treating it as a prior graph, integrating it with a likelihood model derived by Bayesian graphical model based on TCGA data, and producing a posterior graph as updated and data-enhanced knowledge. In short, Zodiac realizes “Prior interaction map + TCGA data → Posterior interaction map.” Results: Zodiac provides molecular interactions for about 200 million pairs of genes. All the results are generated from a big-data analysis and organized into a comprehensive database allowing customized search. In addition, Zodiac provides data processing and analysis tools that allow users to customize the prior networks and update the genetic pathways of their interest. Zodiac is publicly available at www.compgenome.org/ZODIAC. Conclusions: Zodiac recapitulates and extends existing knowledge of molecular interactions in cancer. It can be used to explore novel gene-gene interactions, transcriptional regulation, and other types of molecular interplays in cancer.

Zhu, Yitan↗

Coordinated resource allocation to plant growth–defense tradeoffs

Summary Plant resource allocation patterns often reveal tradeoffs that favor growth (G) over defense (D), or vice versa. Ecologists most often explain G–D tradeoffs through principles of economic optimality, in which negative trait correlations are attributed to the reconciliation of fitness costs. Recently, researchers in molecular biology have developed ‘big data’ resources including multi‐omic (e.g. transcriptomic, proteomic and metabolomic) studies that describe the cellular processes controlling gene expression in model species. In this synthesis, we bridge ecological theory with discoveries in multi‐omics biology to better understand how selection has shaped the mechanisms of G–D tradeoffs. Multi‐omic studies reveal strategically coordinated patterns in resource allocation that are enabled by phytohormone crosstalk and transcriptional signal cascades. Coordinated resource allocation justifies the framework of optimality theory, while providing mechanistic insight into the feedbacks and control hubs that calibrate G–D tradeoff commitments. We use the existing literature to describe the coordinated resource allocation hypothesis (CoRAH) that accounts for balanced cellular controls during the expression of G–D tradeoffs, while sustaining stored resource pools to buffer the impacts of future stresses. The integrative mechanisms of the CoRAH unify the supply‐ and demand‐side perspectives of previous G–D tradeoff theories.

Monson, Russell K.↗

A Prognostics and Health Management Framework for Wind

Operation and maintenance costs are a major driver for levelized cost of energy of wind power plants and can be reduced through optimized operation and maintenance practices accomplishable by various prognostics and health management (PHM) technologies. In recent years, the wind industry has become more open to adopting PHM solutions, especially those focusing on diagnostics. However, prognostics activities are, in general, still at the research and development stage. On the other hand, the industry has a request to estimate a component's remaining useful life (RUL) when it has faulted, and this is a key output of prognostics. Systematically presenting PHM technologies to the wind industry by highlighting the RUL prediction need potentially helps speed up its acceptance and provides more benefits from PHM to the industry. In this paper, we introduce a PHM for wind framework. It highlights specifics unique to wind turbines and features integration of data and physics domain information and models. The output of the framework focuses on RUL prediction. To demonstrate its application, a data domain method for wind turbine gearbox fault diagnostics is presented. It uses supervisory control and data acquisition system time series data, normalizes gearbox temperature measurements with reference to environmental temperature and turbine power, and leverages big data analytics and machine-learning techniques to make the model scalable and the diagnostics process automatic. Another physics-domain modeling method for RUL prediction of wind turbine gearbox high-speed-stage bearings failed by axial cracks is also discussed. Bearing axial cracking has been shown to be the prevalent wind turbine gearbox failure mode experienced in the field and is different from rolling contact fatigue, which is targeted during the bearing design stage. The method uses probability of failure as a component reliability assessment and RUL prediction metric, which can be expanded to other drivetrain components or failure modes. The presented PHM for wind framework is generic and applicable to both land-based and offshore wind turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗