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At least 127 records · Page 7

Medium Energy Electron Flux in Earth's Outer Radiation Belt (MERLIN): A Machine Learning Model

The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120–600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Rapid Acceleration Bursts in the Van Allen Radiation Belt

Abstract The fast Van Allen radiation belt electron dynamics during geomagnetic storms have not yet been fully explained, in part due to limitations of standard satellite missions in both orbit and the number of spacecraft. Here we overcome these limitations using measurements from the Global Positioning System (GPS) constellation during an acceleration event on 26 August 2018. We show that the acceleration of relativistic electrons occurs in two distinct bursts, each dominated by a different acceleration mechanism. The first burst enhances the radiation belt electrons by four orders of magnitude in 2 hr and is consistent with ULF‐wave radial diffusion. The second burst is likely caused by the local acceleration and delivers an order‐of‐magnitude increase in 20 min. This work demonstrates how distributed, operational measurements can be used to resolve phenomena not observable with previous capabilities, and that rapid energization of the radiation belt can occur much faster than previously reported.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Revealing the Formation of the <20 MeV Inner Proton Radiation Belt at L ∼ 2 During the 10–11 May 2024 Superstorm

A new proton radiation belt was identified during the geomagnetic superstorm of 10–11 May 2024. To investigate its origin, we use an MHD-test particle simulation to model solar energetic proton (SEP) trapping and the evolution of the initial trapped proton population during the storm. The simulation weights the injected SEP population with interplanetary proton measurements and the initial trapped proton radial profile with energy-resolved Weather System Follow-on-Microwave (WSF-M) proton data, enabling quantitative comparison with observations. Results show that SEP contributions are minimal; the new ∼2–18 MeV belt at L ∼ 2 forms mainly through redistribution and energization of the initial trapped population within hours of the CME shock, driven by subsequent electric field impulses, rather than the initial shock alone. These results provide quantitative evidence based on realistic, plasma-dependent field dynamics and significantly advance understanding of inner radiation belt formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

BAOBAB (Big And Outrageously Bold Asteroid Belt) Project

One of the intriguing results of NASA's Dawn mission is the composition and structure of the Main Asteroid Belt's only known dwarf planet, Ceres [1]. It has a top layer of dehydrated clays and salts [2] and an icy-rocky mantle [3,4]. It is widely known that the asteroid belt failed to accrete as a planet by resonances between the Sun and Jupiter. About 20-30 asteroids >100 km diameter are probably differentiated protoplanets [5]. 1) how many more and which ones are fragments of protoplanets? 2) How many and which ones are primordial rubble piles left over from condensation of the solar nebula? 3) How would we go about gaining better and more complete characterization of the mass, interior structure and composition of the Main Belt asteroid population? 4) What is the relationship between asteroids and ocean worlds? Bulk parameters such as the mass, density, and porosity, are important to characterize the structure of any celestial body, and for asteroids in particular, they can shed light on the conditions in the early solar system. Asteroid density estimates exist but currently they are often based on assumed properties of taxonomic classes, or through astronomical survey data where interactions with asteroids are weak at best resulting in large measurement uncertainty. We only have direct density estimates from spacecraft encounters for a few asteroids at this time. Knowledge of the asteroids is significant not only to understand their role in solar system workings, but also to assess their potential as space resources, as impact hazards on Earth, or even as harboring life forms. And for the distant future, we want to know if the idea put forth in a contest sponsored by Physics Today, to surface the asteroids into highly reflecting, polished surfaces and use them as a massively segmented mirror for astrophysical exploration [6], is feasible.

Asteroid Belt↗

A Kuiper Belt Object Orbiter Enabled By 10 kW Kilopower Electric Propulsion

Recently, the New Horizons spacecraft flew by the Kuiper Belt Object Ultima Thule 13 years after launch. While flybys are a necessary 'first look' at the object in question a more comprehensive evaluation of the object will require an orbiter. Due to these object’s low mass a chemical propulsion system is not a viable option for entering their shallow gravity wells. The Dawn mission showed that solar electric propulsion is significantly better at the task of reaching low mass objects, but at Kuiper belt distances solar power is not a viable choice. A small nuclear reactor based on the recent kilopower ground test could provide 1-10 kWe of power for an electric propulsion system. The NASA Compass Team developed a Nuclear Electric Propulsion Kuiper Belt Object Orbiter to explore what a vehicle would look like to orbit these deep space objects.

Kuiper belt Object↗

Detection of Hydration on Nominally Anhydrous S-Complex Main Belt Asteroids

We present the results of a survey of nominally anhydrous Main Belt S-complex asteroids. Thirty-three observations of 29 unique asteroids were obtained using the IRTF+SpeX instrument in prism and LXD short modes. We report for the first time that S-complex main belt asteroids have 3-μm features. The majority of the observations (27 of 33) have a detectable 3-μm feature that is at least 1% band depth or greater (within error), indicating the presence of hydration. Most of the asteroids have bands of 1 –2.5% depth but a notable fraction (9 of the observations) have band depths of >5%. These band depths are comparable with low albedo asteroids in the mid and outer belt that experienced aqueous alteration. We investigate the origin of the hydration, searching for correlations with orbital, physical and circumstantial parameters. However, we do not find any strong or moderate correlations with 3-μm band depth, indicating multiple factors may be at play, including exogenic sources, primordial water and/or solar wind implantation. Additionally, we report the mineralogies of the asteroids, derived from the prism observations.

Main Belt S-complex asteroids↗

Detection of Hydration on Nominally Anhydrous S-Complex Main Belt Asteroids

We present the results of a survey of nominally anhydrous main belt S-complex asteroids. Thirty-three observations of 29 unique asteroids were obtained using the IRTF+SpeX instrument in prism and LXD short modes. We report for the first time that S-complex main belt asteroids have 3μm features. The majority of the observations(27 of 33)have a detectable 3μm feature that has at least 1% band depth or greater (within error), indicating the presence of hydration. Most of the asteroids have bands of 1%–2.5% depth, but a notable fraction (nine of the observations) have band depths of>5%. These band depths are comparable to those of low albedo asteroids in the middle and outer belt that have experienced aqueous alteration. We investigate the origin of the hydration, searching for correlations with orbital, physical, and circumstantial parameters. However, we do not find any strong or moderate correlations with 3μm band depth, indicating that multiple factors may be at play, including exogenic sources, primordial water, and/or solar wind implantation. Additionally, we report the mineralogies of the asteroids, derived from the prism observations.

Main Belt S-complex asteroids↗

Hidden in Plain Sight: A New Main Belt Population of Aqueously Altered and Thermally Metamorphosed Asteroids

C-complex low albedo asteroids are understood to be related to aqueously altered carbonaceous chondrite meteorites. However, in recent years, a new subgroup of aqueously altered meteorites that have experienced significant heating after their initial interactions with water has been extensively studied. It remains unclear where the aqueously altered and heated parent bodies are located in the asteroid belt. To address this question, we reanalyzed the original dataset that defined the Bus-DeMeo spectral taxonomy of asteroids (DeMeo et al., 2009) using a machine learning approach trained with near-infrared archival meteorite spectra. Results show that ~50% of the C-complex asteroids first identified in the Bus-DeMeo asteroid spectral taxonomy are aqueously altered and heated. Though Ryugu has been shown to also have experienced both of these processes, this is the first evidence of a population of aqueously altered and thermally metamorphosed asteroids in the Main Asteroid Belt. Based on the expected velocity and frequency of impacts in the main belt population, we conclude that impacts are the most likely heat source driving thermal metamorphism we identify. Moreover, these aqueously altered and thermally metamorphosed asteroids may represent a primordial population of low-albedo material that formed in situ in the inner solar system. If these asteroids formed in place, rather than being brought in from the outer solar system during giant planet migration, they would have experienced more frequent and higher velocity impacts, resulting in their distinct mineralogy.

Main Belt asteroids↗

Examination of Radiation Belt Dynamics During Substorm Clusters: Activity Drivers and Dependencies of Trapped Flux Enhancements

Here, dynamical variations of radiation belt trapped electron fluxes are examined to better understand the variability of enhancements linked to substorm clusters. Analysis is undertaken using the Substorm Onsets and Phases from Indices of the Electrojet substorm cluster algorithm for event detection. Observations from low earth orbit are complemented by additional measurements from medium earth orbit to allow a major expansion in the energy range considered, from medium energy energetic electrons up to ultra-relativistic electrons. The number of substorms identified inside a cluster does not depend strongly on solar wind drivers or geomagnetic indices either before, during, or after the cluster start time. Clusters of substorms linked to moderate (100 nT < AE ≤ 300 nT) or strong AE (AE ≥ 300 nT) disturbances are associated with radiation belt flux enhancements, including up to ultra-relativistic energies by the strongest substorms (as measured by strong southward Bz and high AE). These clusters reliably occur during times of high speed solar winds streams with associated increased magnetospheric convection. However, substorm clusters associated with quiet AE disturbances (AE ≤ 100 nT) lead to no significant chorus whistler mode intensity enhancements, or increases in energetic, relativistic, or ultra-relativistic electron flux in the outer radiation belts. In these cases the solar wind speed is low, and the geomagnetic Kp index indicates a lack of magnetospheric convection. Our study clearly indicates that clusters of substorms occurring outside of high speed wind streams are not by themselves sufficient to drive acceleration, which may be due to the lack of pre-cluster convection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

PreMevE Update: Forecasting Ultra-Relativistic Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt

Energetic electrons inside Earth's Van Allen belts pose a major radiation threat to spaceborne electronics that often play vital roles in modern society. Ultra-relativistic electrons with energies greater than or equal to two megaelectron-volt (MeV) are of particular interest, and thus forecasting these ≥2 MeV electrons has a significant meaning to all space sectors. Here, we update the latest development of the predictive model for MeV electrons in the outer radiation belt. The new version, called PREdictive MEV Electron (PreMevE)-2E, forecasts ultra-relativistic electron flux distributions across the outer belt, with no need for in situ measurements of the trapped MeV electron population except at the geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Model inputs include precipitating electrons observed in low-Earthorbits by NOAA satellites, upstream solar wind speeds and densities from solar wind monitors, as well as ultra-relativistic electrons measured by one Los Alamos GEO satellite. We evaluated 32 supervised machine learning models that fall into four different classes of linear and neural network architectures, and successfully tested ensemble forecasting by using groups of top-performing models. All models are individually trained, validated, and tested by in situ electron data from NASA's Van Allen Probes mission. It is shown that the final ensemble model outperforms individual models at most L-shells, and this PreMevE-2E model can provide 25-h (~1-day) and 50-h (~2-day) forecasts with high mean performance efficiency and correlation values. Our results also suggest that this new model is dominated by nonlinear components at L-shells <~4 for ultra-relativistic electrons, different from the dominance of linear components for 1 MeV electrons as previously discovered.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modeling the Effects of Drift Orbit Bifurcation on Radiation Belt Electrons

Abstract Drift orbit bifurcation (DOB) has been suggested to play a major role in the loss and transport of radiation belt electrons since it violates the second adiabatic invariants of particles and makes the third invariant undefined. Results from our guiding‐center test particle simulations using the Tsyganenko‐1989c magnetic field model show that the DOB could affect a broad region of the outer radiation belt, which can penetrate inside the geosynchronous orbit at Kp ≥ 3, and its effects are more significant further away from the Earth, at a higher Kp and for higher electron energies. Specifically, the short‐term simulation results after one electron drift show both traditional and nontraditional DOB transport of electrons, with the nontraditional DOB, caused by a third minimum of the magnetic field strength near the equator, reported here for the first time. Moreover, our results show large ballistic jumps in the second invariant and radial distance for electrons at high equatorial pitch angles after one drift. In addition, long‐term DOB transport coefficients of electrons over many drifts are calculated based on our simulation results. We find that the pitch angle and radial diffusion coefficients of electrons due to DOB could be comparable to or even larger than those caused by electron interactions with chorus and Ultra‐Low‐Frequency waves, respectively. In sum, our results demonstrate that DOB could cause effective loss and transport of radiation belt electrons even in the absence of waves.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

A model for Jupiter's proton radiation belt

A model for electron and proton energy and density in Jupiter's radiation belt is proposed. It is assumed that electrons diffuse inward from the solar wind. The Davis and Chang diffusion model, in which there is a very steep L-shell dependence in density and energy, is scaled outwards from the peak of the belts at about 1.5 to 2 Jupiter radii to the magnetopause as defined by the magnetic moment. The energetic electron density is calculated to be one billionth of the density in the solar wind, and that is assumed to be the trapping ratio of Jupiter's synchrotron belts. It is further assumed that the same figures apply to protons. The flux density at 80 MHz was measured by the Culgoora ring to be identical to that at 3000 MHz, implying a constant flux density of the synchrotron source of over 20 or 30 to 1 in frequency. It is suggested that the synchrotron spectrum is flat over more than an order of magnitude of frequency. Jupiter is an enormous synchrotron source and has a strong magnetic field, causing long diffusion times for electrons in the magnetosphere.

Warwick, J.↗

A self-consistent model for Jupiter's radiation belts

The solar wind is assumed to be a sufficient source for the radiation belts of Jupiter, with radial diffusion as the process for getting the solar wind fluxes into the inner regions of the radiation belts. The process of a radial diffusion source is combined with pitch-angle diffusion losses to estimate an upper limit to the proton and electron fluxes. The upper limit to the integral proton and electron fluxes in the outer zone scale as L to the -6th power throughout the outer zone, assuming that the magnetic moment is conserved. It is important that these fluxes are above the stably trapped flux levels in the outer regions of the belts; the instability will work because the energies of the particles are above the critical value required.

Thorne, R. M.↗

Analysis of the failure of a polyester peripheral drive belt on the Mariner Mars 1971 flight tape recorder

A peripheral drive belt on the Mariner Mars 1971 tape recorder failed when a thin longitudinal strip separated off one edge. Analysis showed that the most probable cause of failure occurred from flexural fatigue initiating in mechanically weak locations which are introduced into the belt during fabrication. Methyl ethyl ketone, which is employed as a cleaning solvent during fabrication, was found to cause permanent reduction in engineering properties of polyester and could have contributed to the reduction of the fatigue resistance. Fatigue properties of the polyester drive belt are reviewed for the operating condition, as well as the sensitivity of polyester to cleaning solvents and the origin of mechanically weak locations.

Cuddihy, E. F.↗

Theoretical limits on Jovian radio belts

An attempt is made to establish safety limits for space missions near Jovian radio belts. A proton belt model was constructed and analyzed in an effort to set these limits based on the possible stability of radiation belts. Calculation results are graphed.

Neubauer, F. M.↗

The Radiation Belts of Jupiter

A simplified model of the Jovian magnetosphere consists of a thermal plasma with superimposed radiation belts. The model is derived using the following assumptions: (1) The radiation belts are located in a cavity of the Jovian magnetosphere and the field geometry in that cavity is a pure dipole. (2) The conductivity in the Jovian ionosphere is large enough to force the magnetosphere to corotate. (3) The population of electrons in the radiation belts is in a steady state, and the observational data are representative of such average conditions. (4) The nonthermal continuum is produced by the synchrotron radiation of trapped relativistic electrons.

Degioanni, J. J. C.↗

Apparatus for forming drive belts

An apparatus for manufacturing belts, such as seamless belts, is provided, the apparatus has relatively movable rollers that are mounted in an oven. A belt blank, for example, of a thin polyester film, is rotated on the rollers as heat is applied. Four rollers, each mounted on a separate roller assembly, are movable along appropriate tracks while a fifth centrally located roller is stationary. A pair of dc motors are operatively connected to a speed reduction gear assembly to provide a pair of rotating drive shafts that extend into the oven. One rotating shaft drives all of the rollers through a rotational gear assembly while the other drive shaft is capable of positioning the movable rollers through respective rotating threaded shafts. Control devices are provided for controlling the motors while measuring devices are operatively connected to the positional drive shaft to indicate the position of the rollers.

Topits, A., Jr.↗