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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting Li-Ion Battery Capacity Fade Using Early-Life Data and a Hybrid Data-Driven Gaussian Process-Bayesian Regression Approach

Accurately predicting Li-ion battery capacity trajectories using early-life data can dramatically improve battery-life understandings and be used to rapidly evaluate design/cost/performance trade-offs when developing new battery materials. Accurate early-life predictions enable researchers to quickly iterate over cell designs and material precursor properties without consistently cycling cells to failure. To this end, we present a toolbox that uses a combined Gaussian Process and Bayesian regression approach that capitalizes on signals other than just capacity (e.g., dQ/dV, voltage drops) to rapidly predict capacity-fade trajectories. The prediction tool uses Bayesian regression to fit functional forms, e.g., power law, sigmoids, etc., to predict capacity-fade dynamics. By fitting functional forms, the capacity fade can be interrogated at any point in the future, allowing for early cell-failure prediction. Additionally, Bayesian regression allows for accurate uncertainty estimates that account for cell-to-cell variability (aleatoric uncertainty) and the lack of observation data (epistemic uncertainty). By only using early cycle data to predict the capacity fade trajectory, uncertainty bounds at end-of-life can be extremely large. The large uncertainty bounds are further exacerbated because there is no systematic way to define the prior distribution of the functional forms' parameters. We improve our the predicted trajectory confidence interval of our predicted trajectory using two methods. First, we shows that a small amount of held-out cycling data is sufficientuse some train cells, that have been cycled to failure to derive information regarding the appropriate prior distributions for the functional forms' parameters of the functional form, effectively leading to data-driven priors.. We propose constructing the data-driven priors by first running a Bayesian regression starting with uninformed priors to generate intermediate cell-specific posterior parameter distributions. These posterior distributions are combined using a Ggaussian mixture model for each parameter to create the data-driven priors. These mixture models serve as the data-driven prior distributions for the parameters for. Second, we derive multiple features, e.g., C_dchg 0.5 DoD 0.5, log (|mean(dQ/dV_(w_3-w_0 ) (V)|), etc., from the train cellsheld-out cycling data, identify which the features are that best predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles, and then create Ggaussian process regression models that are used for predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles for the test cells (see blue dots with error bars in Fig 1b). Finally, these predicted data-points are used in addition to the actual early cycle data capacity fade to construct the Bayesian regression trajectory for the test cell s. Notably. We note that these two methods are complementary and can be combined with each other. We evaluate the performance of our proposed method on an testing open-source dataset from Iowa State University and Iowa Lakes Community College (ISU-ILCC). This dataset comprises of 251 nickel-manganese-cobalt/graphite Lithium-ion cells that are cycled under 63 different conditions. We compute the mean average percentage error (MAPE) and negative log predictive density (NLPD) to quantify the efficacy of our method. Our initial findings suggest that, when only few observations are available, for test cells, when using only Bayesian regression with uninformed priors, a power law functional provides the most accurate predictions. with very few data points. However, asHowever, a the number of data points increases, a twin sigmoidal function becomes more accurate as the number of observations further increases. We also find that using as little as 10% of the data set towards generating data-driven priors can lead to significant improvement in prediction accuracy when using early cycle data. Lastly, we found that augmenting early-cycle data with Gaussian process-predicted capacity data for Bayesian regression greatly improves the prediction accuracy. We will present a comprehensive comparison of our methods to other methods available in the literature and apply this method to additional battery datasets.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian inference approach to analyze apparent activation barriers and reaction orders from microreactor data

Statistical analysis of steady-state catalytic kinetic data is often limited by data sparsity due to the slow pace at which the data is collected. Data sparsity and limitations in statistical analysis make it difficult to differentiate between mechanistic models and catalytic sites. A Bayesian inference tool is reported for catalysis researchers to estimate error in the determination of reaction orders from steady state microreactor data. The benefits of a Bayesian inference approach are discussed, as an alternative to the more common frequentist approach. The approach incorporates prior knowledge of the system and the data collected to form an error estimate on reaction orders. We investigated the effects of three distinct data treatments—individual fitting of trials, pooled analysis, and constrained regression methods—on the precision and uncertainty of reaction order determinations. To assess the robustness of our findings, we conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the influence of Bayesian parameters on uncertainty estimation. Additionally, we utilized synthetic data to illustrate how data quality impacts the precision of uncertainty assessments. We show Bayesian analysis can obtain a more precise estimation of error with a sparse data set than a frequentist analysis. Finally, this work provides strong evidence that the adoption of Bayesian analysis of kinetic data may help researchers make more precise arguments as to the strength of their evidence for a particular mechanistic hypothesis, or in comparing across different catalysts.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Learning occupants’ indoor comfort temperature through a Bayesian inference approach for office buildings in United States

A carefully chosen indoor comfort temperature as the thermostat set-point is the key to optimizing building energy use and occupants’ comfort and well-being. ASHRAE Standard 55 or ISO Standard 7730 uses the PMV-PPD model or the adaptive comfort model that is based on small-sized or outdated sample data, which raises questions on whether and how ranges of occupant thermal comfort temperature should be revised using more recent larger-sized dataset. In this paper, a Bayesian inference approach has been used to derive new occupant comfort temperature ranges for U.S. office buildings using the ASHRAE Global Thermal Comfort Database. Bayesian inference can express uncertainty and incorporate prior knowledge. The comfort temperatures were found to be higher and less variable at cooling mode than at heating mode, and with significant overlapped variation ranges between the two modes. The comfort operative temperature of occupants varies between 21.9 and 25.4 °C for the cooling mode with a median of 23.7 °C, and between 20.5 and 24.9 °C for the heating mode with a median of 22.7 °C. These comfort temperature ranges are similar to the current ASHRAE standard 55 in the heating mode but 2–3 °C lower in the cooling mode. Finally, the results of this study could be adopted as more realistic thermostat set-points in building design, operation, control optimization, energy performance analysis, and policymaking.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

An analysis of Bayesian estimates for missing higher orders in perturbative calculations

With current high precision collider data, the reliable estimation of theoretical uncertainties due to missing higher orders (MHOs) in perturbation theory has become a pressing issue for collider phenomenology. Traditionally, the size of the MHOs is estimated through scale variation, a simple but ad hoc method without probabilistic interpretation. Bayesian approaches provide a compelling alternative to estimate the size of the MHOs, but it is not clear how to interpret the perturbative scales, like the factorisation and renormalisation scales, in a Bayesian framework. Recently, it was proposed that the scales can be incorporated as hidden parameters into a Bayesian model. In this paper, we thoroughly scrutinise Bayesian approaches to MHO estimation and systematically study the performance of different models on an extensive set of high-order calculations. We extend the framework in two significant ways. First, we define a new model that allows for asymmetric probability distributions. Second, we introduce a prescription to incorporate information on perturbative scales without interpreting them as hidden model parameters. We clarify how the two scale prescriptions bias the result towards specific scale choice, and we discuss and compare different Bayesian MHO estimates among themselves and to the traditional scale variation approach. Finally, we provide a practical prescription of how existing perturbative results at the standard scale variation points can be converted to 68%/95% credibility intervals in the Bayesian approach using the new public code MiHO.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1997

Applications of Bayesian Statistics to Problems in Gamma-Ray Bursts

This presentation will describe two applications of Bayesian statistics to Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBS). The first attempts to quantify the evidence for a cosmological versus galactic origin of GRBs using only the observations of the dipole and quadrupole moments of the angular distribution of bursts. The cosmological hypothesis predicts isotropy, while the galactic hypothesis is assumed to produce a uniform probability distribution over positive values for these moments. The observed isotropic distribution indicates that the Bayes factor for the cosmological hypothesis over the galactic hypothesis is about 300. Another application of Bayesian statistics is in the estimation of chance associations of optical counterparts with galaxies. The Bayesian approach is preferred to frequentist techniques here because the Bayesian approach easily accounts for galaxy mass distributions and because one can incorporate three disjoint hypotheses: (1) bursts come from galactic centers, (2) bursts come from galaxies in proportion to luminosity, and (3) bursts do not come from external galaxies. This technique was used in the analysis of the optical counterpart to GRB970228.

Meegan, Charles A.↗
DOE OSTI2016

WE-AB-207B-02: A Bayesian Network Approach for Joint Prediction of Tumor Control and Radiation Pneumonitis (RP) in Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

Purpose: NSCLC radiotherapy treatment is a trade-off between controlling the tumor while limiting radiation-induced toxicities. Here we identify hierarchical biophysical relationships that could simultaneously influence both local control (LC) and RP by using an integrated Bayesian Networks (BN) approach. Methods: We studied 79 NSCLC patients treated on prospective protocol with 56 cases of LC and 21 events of RP. Beyond dosimetric information, each patient had 193 features including 12 clinical factors, 60 circulating blood cytokines before and during radiotherapy, 62 microRNAs, and 59 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The most relevant biophysical predictors for both LC and RP were identified using a Markov blanket local discovery algorithm and the corresponding BN was constructed using a score-learning algorithm. The area under the free-response receiver operating characteristics (AU-FROC) was used for performance evaluation. Cross-validation was employed to guard against overfitting pitfalls. Results: A BN revealing the biophysical interrelationships jointly in terms of LC and RP was developed and evaluated. The integrated BN included two SNPs, one microRNA, one clinical factor, three pre-treatment cytokines, relative changes of two cytokines between pre and during-treatment, and gEUDs of the GTV (a=-20) and lung (a=1). On cross-validation, the AUC prediction of independent LC was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.75–0.95) and RP was 0.83 (0.73–0.92). The AU-FROC of the integrated BN to predict both LC/RP was 0.81 (0.71–0.90) based on 2000 stratified bootstrap, indicating minimal loss in joint prediction power. Conclusions: We developed a new approach for multiple outcome utility application in radiotherapy based on integrated BN techniques. The BN developed from large-scale retrospective data is able to simultaneously predict LC and RP in NSCLC treatments based on individual patient characteristics. The joint prediction is only slightly compromised compared to independent predictions. Our approach shows promise for use in clinical decision support system for personalized radiotherapy subject to multiple endpoints. These studies were supported by a grant from the NCI/NIH P01-CA59827.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing training trajectories in variational autoencoders via latent Bayesian optimization approach *

Unsupervised and semi-supervised ML methods such as variational autoencoders (VAE) have become widely adopted across multiple areas of physics, chemistry, and materials sciences due to their capability in disentangling representations and ability to find latent manifolds for classification and/or regression of complex experimental data. Like other ML problems, VAEs require hyperparameter tuning, e.g. balancing the Kullback–Leibler and reconstruction terms. However, the training process and resulting manifold topology and connectivity depend not only on hyperparameters, but also their evolution during training. Because of the inefficiency of exhaustive search in a high-dimensional hyperparameter space for the expensive-to-train models, here we have explored a latent Bayesian optimization (zBO) approach for the hyperparameter trajectory optimization for the unsupervised and semi-supervised ML and demonstrated for joint-VAE with rotational invariances. We have demonstrated an application of this method for finding joint discrete and continuous rotationally invariant representations for modified national institute of standards and technology database (MNIST) and experimental data of a plasmonic nanoparticles material system. The performance of the proposed approach has been discussed extensively, where it allows for any high dimensional hyperparameter trajectory optimization of other ML models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

How to estimate soil organic carbon stocks of agricultural fields? perspectives using ex-ante evaluation

Estimating soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks of agricultural fields has a range of important applications from development of sustainable management practices to monitoring carbon stocks. There are many estimation strategies with the potential for more reliable estimates of SOC stock and more efficient use of soil sampling and analysis resources, especially by leveraging readily available auxiliary information such as remote sensing. However, concrete guidance for strategy selection is lacking. This study narrows this gap with a comparison of strategies for estimating deep SOC stock (0–60 cm) in a prototypical field. Using high density SOC stock measurements and simulation, we built on past studies by 1) ex-ante evaluating a large number of strategy options, 2) using a Bayesian approach to quantify the uncertainty of the comparison, and 3) considering multiple Bayesian models to assess sensitivity to this modeling choice. We found that, using readily available auxiliary information, both balanced and stratified sampling offer substantial improvements over simple random sampling. The auxiliary information most important for this improvement is a Sentinel-2 SOC index = blue / (green × red), followed by the topographic wetness index. We found that these results are robust to the choice of mapping method, but that there is uncertainty in the magnitude of improvement. Here, we recommend future studies implement this Bayesian approach for simulated ex-ante evaluation of SOC stock estimation strategies across more fields to investigate the generalizability of these findings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for low mass dark matter in DarkSide-50: the bayesian network approach

Abstract We present a novel approach for the search of dark matter in the DarkSide-50 experiment, relying on Bayesian Networks. This method incorporates the detector response model into the likelihood function, explicitly maintaining the connection with the quantity of interest. No assumptions about the linearity of the problem or the shape of the probability distribution functions are required, and there is no need to morph signal and background spectra as a function of nuisance parameters. By expressing the problem in terms of Bayesian Networks, we have developed an inference algorithm based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo to calculate the posterior probability. A clever description of the detector response model in terms of parametric matrices allows us to study the impact of systematic variations of any parameter on the final results. Our approach not only provides the desired information on the parameter of interest, but also potential constraints on the response model. Our results are consistent with recent published analyses and further refine the parameters of the detector response model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pedestal main ion particle transport inference through gas puff modulation with experimental source measurements

Abstract Transport in the DIII-D high confinement mode (H-mode) pedestal is investigated through a periodic edge gas puff modulation (GPM) which perturbs the deuterium density and source profiles. By using absolutely calibrated experimental edge ionization profile measurements, radial profiles of diffusion ( D ) and convection ( v ) are calculated into the pedestal region without depending on modeling the edge ionization source. An analytic approach with closed-form expressions for the D and v profiles and a more advanced Bayesian approach show evidence of an inward particle convection on the order of 1 m s −1 extending to normalized poloidal flux ( Ψ N ) of 0.98. Meanwhile, diffusion reaches a minimum value of ( 0.03 ± 0.02 ) m 2 s −1 in the pedestal region. Notably, the Bayesian approach, which utilizes the Aurora 1.5 D forward model inside the IMPRAD OMFIT module, provides radially resolved transport profiles with associated uncertainty without requiring an explicit form for the perturbation to the density profile or source. The combination of experimental ionization measurements and Bayesian inference provides an enhanced robust framework for investigating edge particle transport coefficients to experimentally test transport physics in order to improve predictive capabilities in the tokamak edge.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

AGNfitter: a Bayesian MCMC approach to fitting spectral energy distributions of AGNs

We present AGNfitter, a publicly available open-source algorithm implementing a fully Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to fit the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) from the sub-millimeter to the UV, allowing one to robustly disentangle the physical processes responsible for their emission. AGNfitter makes use of a large library of theoretical, empirical, and semi-empirical models to characterize both the nuclear and host galaxy emission simultaneously. The model consists of four physical emission components: an accretion disk, a torus of AGN heated dust, stellar populations, and cold dust in star-forming regions. AGNfitter determines the posterior distributions of numerous parameters that govern the physics of AGNs with a fully Bayesian treatment of errors and parameter degeneracies, allowing one to infer integrated luminosities, dust attenuation parameters, stellar masses, and star-formation rates. We tested AGNfitter’s performance on real data by fitting the SEDs of a sample of 714 X-ray selected AGNs from the XMM-COSMOS survey, spectroscopically classified as Type1 (unobscured) and Type2 (obscured) AGNs by their optical–UV emission lines. We find that two independent model parameters, namely the reddening of the accretion disk and the column density of the dusty torus, are good proxies for AGN obscuration, allowing us to develop a strategy for classifying AGNs as Type1 or Type2, based solely on an SED-fitting analysis. Our classification scheme is in excellent agreement with the spectroscopic classification, giving a completeness fraction of ∼86% and ∼70%, and an efficiency of ∼80% and ∼77%, for Type1 and Type2 AGNs, respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A physics informed bayesian optimization approach for material design: application to NiTi shape memory alloys

Abstract The design of materials and identification of optimal processing parameters constitute a complex and challenging task, necessitating efficient utilization of available data. Bayesian Optimization (BO) has gained popularity in materials design due to its ability to work with minimal data. However, many BO-based frameworks predominantly rely on statistical information, in the form of input-output data, and assume black-box objective functions. In practice, designers often possess knowledge of the underlying physical laws governing a material system, rendering the objective function not entirely black-box, as some information is partially observable. In this study, we propose a physics-informed BO approach that integrates physics-infused kernels to effectively leverage both statistical and physical information in the decision-making process. We demonstrate that this method significantly improves decision-making efficiency and enables more data-efficient BO. The applicability of this approach is showcased through the design of NiTi shape memory alloys, where the optimal processing parameters are identified to maximize the transformation temperature.

Chemistry↗
NASA NTRS2011

Integrated Software Health Management for Aircraft GN and C

Modern aircraft rely heavily on dependable operation of many safety-critical software components. Despite careful design, verification and validation (V&V), on-board software can fail with disastrous consequences if it encounters problematic software/hardware interaction or must operate in an unexpected environment. We are using a Bayesian approach to monitor the software and its behavior during operation and provide up-to-date information about the health of the software and its components. The powerful reasoning mechanism provided by our model-based Bayesian approach makes reliable diagnosis of the root causes possible and minimizes the number of false alarms. Compilation of the Bayesian model into compact arithmetic circuits makes SWHM feasible even on platforms with limited CPU power. We show initial results of SWHM on a small simulator of an embedded aircraft software system, where software and sensor faults can be injected.

Schumann, Johann↗
NASA NTRS2005

Bayesian Retrieval of Complete Posterior PDFs of Oceanic Rain Rate From Microwave Observations

This paper presents a new Bayesian algorithm for retrieving surface rain rate from Tropical Rainfall Measurements Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) over the ocean, along with validations against estimates from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). The Bayesian approach offers a rigorous basis for optimally combining multichannel observations with prior knowledge. While other rain rate algorithms have been published that are based at least partly on Bayesian reasoning, this is believed to be the first self-contained algorithm that fully exploits Bayes Theorem to yield not just a single rain rate, but rather a continuous posterior probability distribution of rain rate. To advance our understanding of theoretical benefits of the Bayesian approach, we have conducted sensitivity analyses based on two synthetic datasets for which the true conditional and prior distribution are known. Results demonstrate that even when the prior and conditional likelihoods are specified perfectly, biased retrievals may occur at high rain rates. This bias is not the result of a defect of the Bayesian formalism but rather represents the expected outcome when the physical constraint imposed by the radiometric observations is weak, due to saturation effects. It is also suggested that the choice of the estimators and the prior information are both crucial to the retrieval. In addition, the performance of our Bayesian algorithm is found to be comparable to that of other benchmark algorithms in real-world applications, while having the additional advantage of providing a complete continuous posterior probability distribution of surface rain rate.

Chiu, J. Christine↗
DOE OSTI2026

New approaches to Bayesian uncertainty quantification for Nuclear Science (Final Technical Report)

Inverse problems play a central role in experimentation and theory/data comparisons for many areas of modern Nuclear Physics (NP) and High-Energy Physics (HEP). Bayes’s Theorem is a powerful tool for solving Inverse Problems, providing conceptually transparent and unbiased constraints on theoretical parameters and their uncertainties (“Bayesian Inference”) and enabling the quantification of agreement or tension between models and data. However, analyses based on Bayesian Inference are often challenging for NP and HEP applications, either because of the large number of parameters in the problem, the high computational cost, or both. We propose a multi-institutional collaboration to develop and deploy novel Bayesian analysis tools that advance the scientific scope of a broad range of current and future NP experiments. This project brings together NP domain scientists working on several high-profile NP projects for which new, high-performance Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification (“Bayesian UQ”) methods are essential to carry out the science, and data scientists who are developing state-of-the-art methods applicable to these problems. The NP projects in this proposal comprise measurements of the mass and fundamental nature of the neutrino; study of the Quark-Gluon Plasma that filled the early universe; and mapping of natural and anthropogenic radiation environments. While these NP projects have very different scientific goals, with datasets and analysis approaches that differ significantly, they share common requirements for improving computationally intensive Bayesian analyses using advanced Machine Learning algorithms and will benefit strongly from a coherent effort to develop general solutions. This proposal brings together these projects and forefront ML-based data science algorithms to develop such general solutions. The methods developed in this project will also be more widely applicable, thereby advancing science in the larger Nuclear Physics portfolio.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Theoretical and methodological challenges in hierarchical Bayesian inference for model-form uncertainty

This report describes challenges associated with the hierarchical Bayesian approach to inform model-form uncertainty (MFU) representations, which are parameterized modifications to a mathematical models’ governing equations to express uncertainty in form of the equations. To inform model-form uncertainties, hierarchical Bayesian inference is often employed. Here, the MFU parameters are distributed parametrically, and the hyperparameters of the parametric distribution are informed through Bayesian inference, with the aim of determining the MFU parameter distribution that best agrees with calibration data. In practice, however, we have found the hierarchical Bayesian approach falls short of this aim. We discuss theoretical and methodological challenges of the approach, and we present several numerical demonstrations of these challenges. To conclude, we suggest promising alternative approaches for future investigation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-throughput spin-bath characterization of spin defects in semiconductors

Detailed knowledge of the local environments of spin defects in semiconductors, such as nitrogenvacancy (NV) centers in diamond or divacancies in silicon carbide, is crucial for optimizing control and entanglement protocols in quantum sensing and information applications. However, at present a direct experimental characterization of individual defect environments is not scalable, as conventional spin-bath measurements are time consuming and difficult to automate. Achieving high-throughput characterization requires short experiments to probe the spin bath. However, with fewer and noisier measurements, the inverse problem of recovering spin-bath properties from measured data becomes ill posed, with multiple spin baths having a high likelihood of yielding the same data. In this work, we present a set of computational tools to resolve the ill-posed inverse problem of recovering the atomic positions and hyperfine couplings of random nuclei surrounding spin defects from sparse, noisy experimental coherence data, which can be obtained in hours. Here, we use a trans-dimensional Bayesian approach that incorporates ab initio data to yield full posterior distributions over nuclear spin environments, enabling robust recovery from limited data. We also provide practical tools and guidelines to determine the limits of detectability for hyperfine couplings under specific dynamical decoupling sequences and sampling conditions. In addition, we demonstrate how the tools developed here, in combination with ab initio simulations of spin baths, can guide the design of efficient experimental protocols for application-specific high-throughput screening. To showcase the utility of our approach, we apply it to design fast dynamical decoupling experiments to characterize the spin baths often individual NV centers in diamond. While the primary focus is on accelerating spin-bath characterization of spin defects, this Bayesian approach also lays the foundation for digital-twin studies of spin defects, where a virtual model of the spin-defect system evolves in real time with ongoing experimental measurements. Together, the set of tools we designed and applied paves the way for scalable deployment of spin defects in semiconductors for quantum sensing and information applications.

Bayesian methods↗