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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

STUDIES IN ASTRONOMICAL TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. VI. BAYESIAN BLOCK REPRESENTATIONS

This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piecewise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by Arias-Castro et al. In the spirit of Reproducible Research all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as supplementary material.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Constraints on the sum of the neutrino masses in dynamical dark energy models with w ( z ) ≥ - 1 are tighter than those obtained in Λ CDM

In this work, we explore cosmological constraints on the sum of the three active neutrino masses M ν in the context of dynamical dark energy (DDE) models with equation of state (EoS) parametrized as a function of redshift z by w(z) = w 0 + w a z/(1 + z), and satisfying w(z) ≥ -1 for all z. We make use of cosmic microwave background data from the Planck satellite, baryon acoustic oscillation measurements, and supernovae Ia luminosity distance measurements, and perform a Bayesian analysis. We show that, within these models, the bounds on M ν do not degrade with respect to those obtained in the Λ CDM case; in fact, the bounds are slightly tighter, despite the enlarged parameter space. We explain our results based on the observation that, for fixed choices of w 0 , w a such that w(z) ≥ - 1 (but not w = -1 for all z), the upper limit on M ν is tighter than the Λ CDM limit because of the well-known degeneracy between w and M ν . The Bayesian analysis we have carried out then integrates over the possible values of w 0 - w a such that w (z) ≥ -1, all of which correspond to tighter limits on M ν than the Λ CDM limit. We find a 95% credible interval (C.I.) upper bound of M ν < 0.13 eV . This bound can be compared with the 95% C.I. upper bounds of M ν < 0.16 eV , obtained within the Λ CDM model, and M ν < 0.41 eV, obtained in a DDE model with arbitrary EoS (which allows values of w < -1). Contrary to the results derived for DDE models with arbitrary EoS, we find that a dark energy component with w(z) ≥ -1 is unable to alleviate the tension between high-redshift observables and direct measurements of the Hubble constant H 0 . Lastly, in light of the results of this analysis, we also discuss the implications for DDE models of a possible determination of the neutrino mass ordering by laboratory searches.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Measurement of the CP-violating phase β s J/ψΦ in B s 0 →J/ψΦ decays with the CDF II detector

We present a measurement of the CP-violating parameter β s J/ψΦ using approximately 6500 B 0 s →J/ψΦ decays reconstructed with the CDF II detector in a sample of pp̄ collisions at √s=1.96 TeV corresponding to 5.2 fb⁻¹ integrated luminosity produced by the Tevatron collider at Fermilab. We find the CP-violating phase to be within the range β s J/ψΦ ϵ [0.02,0.52]∪[1.08,1.55] at 68% confidence level where the coverage property of the quoted interval is guaranteed using a frequentist statistical analysis. This result is in agreement with the standard model expectation at the level of about one Gaussian standard deviation. We consider the inclusion of a potential S-wave contribution to the B 0 s →J/ψK⁺K⁻ final state which is found to be negligible over the mass interval 1.009 s J/ψΦ , we find the B 0 s decay width difference to be ΔΓ s =0.075±0.035(stat)±0.006(syst) ps⁻¹. We also present the most precise measurements of the B 0 s mean lifetime τ (B 0 s )=1.529±0.025(stat)±0.012(syst) ps, the polarization fractions |A0(0)|²=0.524±0.013(stat)±0.015(syst) and |A II (0)|²=0.231±0.014(stat)±0.015(syst), as well as the strong phase δ ⊥ =2.95±0.64(stat)±0.07(syst) rad. In addition, we report an alternative Bayesian analysis that gives results consistent with the frequentist approach.

Aaltonen, T.↗
DOE OSTI2020

BASS: An R Package for Fitting and Performing Sensitivity Analysis of Bayesian Adaptive Spline Surfaces

In this work, we present the R package BASS as a tool for nonparametric regression. The primary focus of the package is fitting fully Bayesian adaptive spline surface (BASS) models and performing global sensitivity analyses of these models. The BASS framework is similar to that of Bayesian multivariate adaptive regression splines (BMARS) from Denison, Mallick, and Smith (1998), but with many added features. The software is built to efficiently handle significant amounts of data with many continuous or categorical predictors and with functional response. Under our Bayesian framework, most priors are automatic but these can be modified by the user to focus on parsimony and the avoidance of overfitting. If directed to do so, the software uses parallel tempering to improve the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) methods used to perform inference. We discuss the implementation of these features and present the performance of BASS in a number of analyses of simulated and real data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Daily Monitoring of TeV Gamma-Ray Emission from Mrk 421, Mrk 501, and the Crab Nebula with HAWC

We present results from daily monitoring of gamma-rays in the energy range from ∼0.5 to ∼100 TeV with the first 17 months of data from the High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) Observatory. Its wide field of view of 2 steradians and duty cycle of >95% are unique features compared to other TeV observatories that allow us to observe every source that transits over HAWC for up to ∼6 hr each sidereal day. This regular sampling yields unprecedented light curves from unbiased measurements that are independent of seasons or weather conditions. For the Crab Nebula as a reference source, we find no variability in the TeV band. Our main focus is the study of the TeV blazars Markarian (Mrk) 421 and Mrk 501. A spectral fit for Mrk 421 yields a power-law index Γ=2.21±0.14{sub stat}±0.20{sub sys} and an exponential cut-off E{sub 0}=5.4±1.1{sub stat}±1.0{sub sys} TeV. For Mrk 501, we find an index Γ=1.60±0.30{sub stat}±0.20{sub sys} and exponential cut-off E{sub 0}=5.7±1.6{sub stat}±1.0{sub sys} TeV. The light curves for both sources show clear variability and a Bayesian analysis is applied to identify changes between flux states. The highest per-transit fluxes observed from Mrk 421 exceed the Crab Nebula flux by a factor of approximately five. For Mrk 501, several transits show fluxes in excess of three times the Crab Nebula flux. In a comparison to lower energy gamma-ray and X-ray monitoring data with comparable sampling, we cannot identify clear counterparts for the most significant flaring features observed by HAWC.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Cosmic ray propagation and dark matter in light of the latest AMS-02 data

The AMS-02 experiment is measuring the high energy cosmic rays with unprecedented accuracy. We explore the possibility of determining the cosmic-ray propagation models using the AMS-02 data alone. A global Bayesian analysis of the constraints on the cosmic-ray propagation models from the preliminary AMS-02 data on the Boron to Carbon nuclei flux ratio and proton flux is performed, with the assumption that the primary nucleon source is a broken power law in rigidity. The ratio of the diffusion coefficient D{sub 0} to the diffusive halo height Z{sub h} is determined with high accuracy D{sub 0}/Z{sub h}≃2.00±0.07 cm{sup 2}s{sup −1}kpc{sup −1}, and the value of the halo width is found to be Z{sub h}≃3.3 kpc with uncertainty less than 50%. As a consequence, the typical uncertainties in the positron fraction predicted from dark matter (DM) annihilation is reduced to a factor of two, and that in the antiproton flux is about an order of magnitude. Both of them are significantly smaller than that from the analyses prior to AMS-02. Taking into account the uncertainties and correlations in the propagation parameters, we derive conservative upper limits on the cross sections for DM annihilating into various standard model final states from the current PAMELA antiproton data. We also investigate the reconstruction capability of the future high precision AMS-02 antiproton data on the DM properties. The results show that for DM particles lighter than ∼100 GeV and with typical thermal annihilation cross section, the cross section can be well reconstructed with uncertainties about a factor of two for the AMS-02 three-year data taking.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2013

MODELING THE NON-RECYCLED FERMI GAMMA-RAY PULSAR POPULATION

We use Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope detections and upper limits on non-recycled pulsars obtained from the Large Area Telescope (LAT) to constrain how the gamma-ray luminosity L{sub γ} depends on the period P and the period derivative P-dot . We use a Bayesian analysis to calculate a best-fit luminosity law, or dependence of L{sub γ} on P and P-dot , including different methods for modeling the beaming factor. An outer gap (OG) magnetosphere geometry provides the best-fit model, which is L{sub γ}∝P{sup -a} P-dot {sup b} where a = 1.36 ± 0.03 and b = 0.44 ± 0.02, similar to but not identical to the commonly assumed L{sub γ}∝√( E-dot )∝P{sup -1.5} P-dot {sup 0.5}. Given upper limits on gamma-ray fluxes of currently known radio pulsars and using the OG model, we find that about 92% of the radio-detected pulsars have gamma-ray beams that intersect our line of sight. By modeling the misalignment of radio and gamma-ray beams of these pulsars, we find an average gamma-ray beaming solid angle of about 3.7π for the OG model, assuming a uniform beam. Using LAT-measured diffuse fluxes, we place a 2σ upper limit on the average braking index and a 2σ lower limit on the average surface magnetic field strength of the pulsar population of 3.8 and 3.2 × 10{sup 10} G, respectively. We then predict the number of non-recycled pulsars detectable by the LAT based on our population model. Using the 2 yr sensitivity, we find that the LAT is capable of detecting emission from about 380 non-recycled pulsars, including 150 currently identified radio pulsars. Using the expected 5 yr sensitivity, about 620 non-recycled pulsars are detectable, including about 220 currently identified radio pulsars. We note that these predictions significantly depend on our model assumptions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

An analysis of Bayesian estimates for missing higher orders in perturbative calculations

With current high precision collider data, the reliable estimation of theoretical uncertainties due to missing higher orders (MHOs) in perturbation theory has become a pressing issue for collider phenomenology. Traditionally, the size of the MHOs is estimated through scale variation, a simple but ad hoc method without probabilistic interpretation. Bayesian approaches provide a compelling alternative to estimate the size of the MHOs, but it is not clear how to interpret the perturbative scales, like the factorisation and renormalisation scales, in a Bayesian framework. Recently, it was proposed that the scales can be incorporated as hidden parameters into a Bayesian model. In this paper, we thoroughly scrutinise Bayesian approaches to MHO estimation and systematically study the performance of different models on an extensive set of high-order calculations. We extend the framework in two significant ways. First, we define a new model that allows for asymmetric probability distributions. Second, we introduce a prescription to incorporate information on perturbative scales without interpreting them as hidden model parameters. We clarify how the two scale prescriptions bias the result towards specific scale choice, and we discuss and compare different Bayesian MHO estimates among themselves and to the traditional scale variation approach. Finally, we provide a practical prescription of how existing perturbative results at the standard scale variation points can be converted to 68%/95% credibility intervals in the Bayesian approach using the new public code MiHO.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Statistical Analysis for Mass Spectrometric Data Processing

• Thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) is a “gold standard’ technique for actinide isotope amount ratio and assay measurements. • Ubiquitously used in: • Nuclear Nonproliferation • Nuclear Safeguards • Nuclear Forensics • Basic Science • Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) installed a new Thermo Scientific TRITON Plus TIMS in early 2024.

McLarty, Ellis C. [Savannah River National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Statistical Analysis for Mass Spectrometric Data Processing

Thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) is a “gold standard’ technique for actinide isotope amount ratio and assay measurements. • Ubiquitously used in: • Nuclear Nonproliferation • Nuclear Safeguards • Nuclear Forensics • Basic Science • Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) installed a new Thermo Scientific TRITON Plus TIMS in early 2024.

McLarty, Ellis C. [Savannah River National Laborat↗