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At least 127 records · Page 7

Efficient Neural Network Approaches for Conditional Optimal Transport with Applications in Bayesian Inference

In this work, we present two neural network approaches that approximate the solutions of static and dynamic conditional optimal transport (COT) problems. Both approaches enable conditional sampling and conditional density estimation, which are core tasks in Bayesian inference—particularly in the simulation-based (“likelihood-free”) setting. Our methods represent the target conditional distribution as a transformation of a tractable reference distribution. Obtaining such a transformation, chosen here to be an approximation of the COT map, is computationally challenging even in moderate dimensions. To improve scalability, our numerical algorithms use neural networks to parameterize candidate maps and further exploit the structure of the COT problem. Our static approach approximates the map as the gradient of a partially input convex neural network. It uses a novel numerical implementation to increase computational efficiency compared to state-of-the-art alternatives. Our dynamic approach approximates the conditional optimal transport via the flow map of a regularized neural ODE; compared to the static approach, it is slower to train but offers more modeling choices and can lead to faster sampling. We demonstrate both algorithms numerically, comparing them with competing state-of-the-art approaches, using benchmark datasets and simulation-based Bayesian inverse problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Real-Time Bayesian Inference at Extreme Scale: A Digital Twin for Tsunami Early Warning Applied to the Cascadia Subduction Zone

We present a Bayesian inversion-based digital twin that employs acoustic pressure data from seafloor sensors, along with 3D coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion in real time and forecast tsunami propagation toward coastlines for early warning with quantified uncertainties. Our target is the Cascadia subduction zone, with one billion parameters. Computing the posterior mean alone would require 50 years on a 512 GPU machine. Instead, exploiting the shift invariance of the parameter-to-observable map and devising novel parallel algorithms, we induce a fast offline–online decomposition. The offline component requires just one adjoint wave propagation per sensor; using MFEM, we scale this part of the computation to the full El Capitan system (43,520 GPUs) with 92% weak parallel efficiency. Moreover, given real-time data, the online component exactly solves the Bayesian inverse and forecasting problems in 0.2 seconds on a modest GPU system, a ten-billion-fold speedup.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bayesian Calibration of Nuclear Graphite Property Models Accounting for Model Inadequacy and Impacts on Component Performance

Nuclear-grade structural graphite is extensively utilized in the core designs of various advanced nuclear reactors. In the reactor environment, graphite is subjected to prolonged exposure to extreme conditions, including high temperatures, radiation, and potentially molten salt and oxygen. Such exposure can induce several degradation mechanisms in graphite, including nonuniform volumetric strains caused by irradiation and thermal expansion, leading to stresses that may compromise the performance of graphite components. Assessing component integrity requires accurate models of graphite's thermomechanical response. This report documents the Bayesian calibration of thermomechanical properties for nuclear-grade graphite and their application to graphite component modeling and simulation using the Grizzly code. As part of this work, uncertainty-quantified models were developed for the elastic modulus, coefficient of thermal expansion, irradiation-induced dimensional change, and irradiation-induced creep for graphite grades IG-110, NBG-18, NBG-17, PCEA, and 2114. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, multiple experimental data sources were combined to develop Gaussian process models for the properties. Using the Kennedy O'Hagan framework, the uncertainties due to inadequacies in the model and the inherent spread in the experimental data were quantified for three different models. These uncertainty-quantified models, with a model-form correction, were subsequently applied to a coupled-physics simulation of representative graphite components, revealing that the uncertainties have a large impact on the components' deformation.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Prediction of non-intuitive metabolic targets with bayesian metabolic control analysis to improve 3-hydroxypropionic acid production in Aspergillus niger

Development of efficient bioconversion processes is limited by the ability to predictably improve metabolic flux. Here we deployed Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis as a platform to integrate multi-omics data with metabolic modeling and evaluated its ability to predict genetic interventions that improve metabolic flux. Global Metabolomics and proteomics data was collected from 17 Aspergillus niger strains engineered to produce the platform biochemical 3-hydroxypropionic acid from which seven actional genetic interventions were predicted from significant flux control coefficients. Of the suggested genetic interventions, two were present within the intuitively designed strains used for training (malonic semialdehyde dehydrogenase and pyruvate carboxylase) while five predicted targets were present within non-intuitive areas of the metabolic network including 5-formyltetrahydrofolate deformylase and four mitochondrial enzymes, alcohol dehydrogenase, succinyl-CoA ligase, aspartate aminotransferase, and malate dehydrogenase. Six of the targets were validated in the highest performing 3-HP strain used for multi-omics data generation which contained a prior disruption of the highest scoring target malonic semialdehyde dehydrogenase. Predicted directional perturbation of five of the six tested targets significantly improved titer and rate of 3-HP production and two significantly improved yield. The greatest improvements were observed following disruption of the non-intuitive target succinyl-CoA ligase which increased titer by 39% and yield by 29% (to 20.4 g/L 3-HP and 0.31 g 3-HP/g glucose) over the strains used for training. This study demonstrates the utility of Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis and highlights the ability to predict meaningful genetic targets in unexpected areas of metabolism to improve engineered strains for bioconversion.

3-hydroxypropionic acid↗

Bayesian Analysis of the Power Spectrum of the Cosmic Microwave Background

There is a wealth of cosmological information encoded in the spatial power spectrum of temperature anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background. The sky, when viewed in the microwave, is very uniform, with a nearly perfect blackbody spectrum at 2.7 degrees. Very small amplitude brightness fluctuations (to one part in a million!!) trace small density perturbations in the early universe (roughly 300,000 years after the Big Bang), which later grow through gravitational instability to the large-scale structure seen in redshift surveys... In this talk, I will discuss a Bayesian formulation of this problem; discuss a Gibbs sampling approach to numerically sampling from the Bayesian posterior, and the application of this approach to the first-year data from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe. I will also comment on recent algorithmic developments for this approach to be tractable for the even more massive data set to be returned from the Planck satellite.

Bayesian inference↗

Parametric 3D Atmospheric Reconstruction in Highly Variable Terrain with Recycled Monte Carlo Paths and an Adapted Bayesian Inference Engine

We describe a method for accelerating a 3D Monte Carlo forward radiative transfer model to the point where it can be used in a new kind of Bayesian retrieval framework. The remote sensing challenge is to detect and quantify a chemical effluent of a known absorbing gas produced by an industrial facility in a deep valley. The available data is a single low resolution noisy image of the scene in the near IR at an absorbing wavelength for the gas of interest. The detected sunlight has been multiply reflected by the variable terrain and/or scattered by an aerosol that is assumed partially known and partially unknown. We thus introduce a new class of remote sensing algorithms best described as "multi-pixel" techniques that call necessarily for a 3D radaitive transfer model (but demonstrated here in 2D); they can be added to conventional ones that exploit typically multi- or hyper-spectral data, sometimes with multi-angle capability, with or without information about polarization. The novel Bayesian inference methodology uses adaptively, with efficiency in mind, the fact that a Monte Carlo forward model has a known and controllable uncertainty depending on the number of sun-to-detector paths used.

Monte Carlo↗

Uncertainty Reduction using Bayesian Inference and Sensitivity Analysis: A Sequential Approach to the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge

This paper presents a computational framework for uncertainty characterization and propagation, and sensitivity analysis under the presence of aleatory and epistemic un- certainty, and develops a rigorous methodology for efficient refinement of epistemic un- certainty by identifying important epistemic variables that significantly affect the overall performance of an engineering system. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge (NASA-LUQC) problem that deals with uncertainty analysis of a generic transport model (GTM). First, Bayesian inference is used to infer subsystem-level epistemic quantities using the subsystem-level model and corresponding data. Second, tools of variance-based global sensitivity analysis are used to identify four important epistemic variables (this limitation specified in the NASA-LUQC is reflective of practical engineering situations where not all epistemic variables can be refined due to time/budget constraints) that significantly affect system-level performance. The most significant contribution of this paper is the development of the sequential refine- ment methodology, where epistemic variables for refinement are not identified all-at-once. Instead, only one variable is first identified, and then, Bayesian inference and global sensi- tivity calculations are repeated to identify the next important variable. This procedure is continued until all 4 variables are identified and the refinement in the system-level perfor- mance is computed. The advantages of the proposed sequential refinement methodology over the all-at-once uncertainty refinement approach are explained, and then applied to the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge problem.

Uncertainty↗

Enhancements of Bayesian Blocks; Application to Large Light Curve Databases

Bayesian Blocks are optimal piecewise linear representations (step function fits) of light-curves. The simple algorithm implementing this idea, using dynamic programming, has been extended to include more data modes and fitness metrics, multivariate analysis, and data on the circle (Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations, Scargle, Norris, Jackson and Chiang 2013, ApJ, 764, 167), as well as new results on background subtraction and refinement of the procedure for precise timing of transient events in sparse data. Example demonstrations will include exploratory analysis of the Kepler light curve archive in a search for "star-tickling" signals from extraterrestrial civilizations. (The Cepheid Galactic Internet, Learned, Kudritzki, Pakvasa1, and Zee, 2008, arXiv: 0809.0339; Walkowicz et al., in progress).

Kepler light curve archive↗

Bayesian Model Selection for Reducing Bloat and Overfitting in Genetic Programming for Symbolic Regression

When performing symbolic regression using genetic programming, overfitting and bloat can negatively impact generalizability and interpretability of the resulting equations as well as increase computation times. A Bayesian fitness metric is introduced and its impact on bloat and overfitting during population evolution is studied and compared to common alternatives in the literature. The proposed approach was found to be more robust to noise and data sparsity in numerical experiments, guiding evolution to a level of complexity appropriate to the dataset. Further evolution of the population resulted not in overfitting or bloat, but rather in slight simplifications in model form. The ability to identify an equation of complexity appropriate to the scale of noise in the training data was also demonstrated. In general, the Bayesian model selection algorithm was shown to be an effective means of regularization which resulted in less bloat and overfitting when any amount of noise was present in the training data.

Uncertainty quantification↗

Bayesian Estimation of Earth’s Undiscovered Mineralogical Diversity Using Noninformative Priors

Recently, statistical distributions have been explored to provide estimates of the mineralogical diversity of Earth, and Earth-like planets. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is introduced to estimate Earth’s undiscovered mineralogical diversity. Samples are generated from a posterior distribution of the model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations such that estimates and inference are directly obtained. It was previously shown that the mineral species frequency distribution conforms to a generalized inverse Gauss–Poisson (GIGP) large number of rare events model. Even though the model fit was good, the population size estimate obtained by using this model was found to be unreasonably low by mineralogists. In this paper, several zero-truncated, mixed Poisson distributions are fitted and compared, where the Poisson-lognormal distribution is found to provide the best fit. Subsequently, the population size estimates obtained by Bayesian methods are compared to the empirical Bayes estimates. Species accumulation curves are constructed and employed to estimate the population size as a function of sampling size. Finally, the relative abundances, and hence the occurrence probabilities of species in a random sample, are calculated numerically for all mineral species in Earth’s crust using the Poisson-lognormal distribution. These calculations are connected and compared to the calculations obtained in a previous paper using the GIGP model for which mineralogical criteria of an Earth-like planet were given.

Bayesian statistics↗

Thermoplastic Matrix Composite Design for Cryotanks Using Multiscale Modeling and Bayesian Optimization

Designing lightweight, robust cryogenic storage tanks is critical for future launch vehicles, in-space propellant storage, and hydrogen powered aircraft. This work presents a multiscale modeling and Bayesian optimization framework for the design of thermoplastic matrix composite cryotanks. Molecular dynamics simulations are first used to determine temperature-dependent constituent properties for candidate thermoplastic matrices, which are homogenized to the lamina scale using NASA’s Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT). These lamina properties, in combination with laminate family generation rules, are evaluated in HyperX structural optimization software to identify stacking sequences that meet all cryogenic load requirements. A Bayesian optimization framework is applied, with HyperX in the loop (via the HyperX API) to efficiently search across material and laminate design variables, yielding an optimized cryotank configuration with significant reductions in design cycle time compared to exhaustive search approaches.

thermoplastics↗

Bayesian Optimization for Reactor Design Optimization

This study present a test case in which the Bayesian Optimization method is applied to a simulation-based reactor core design optimization problem. The test case aims to showcase the potential of an automated design optimization algorithm for reactor designs by streamlining the reactor core design workflow, given the high computational cost of simulations. The contributions of this work are threefold. First, the existing HTGR model is converted into a simulation-based design optimization test case by developing a pipeline that enables modification of key design parameters and evaluates design performance based on simulation outputs. Second, Bayesian Optimization is implemented and adapted to demonstrate the feasibility of automatic design optimization for nuclear reactor core. Proposed approach leverages Gaussian Process models to characterize the relationship between design variables and performance metrics, while incorporating novel acquisition functions that balance exploration of the design space with exploitation of promising configurations. This implementation lays the foundation for the future developments of reactor design optimization algorithms.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

LABQ3: Bayesian method for quantification of mineral compositions and nano-scale elemental mapping of 3D synchrotron XCT data

Quantitative analysis of mineral compositions is essential in understanding geochemical, mineralogical and environmental processes. Fine-resolution 3D imaging is widely done using synchrotron X-ray computed tomography (XCT), but existing analyses are limited to visualization and segmentation. This paper presents a new method, Linear Attenuation Bayesian Quantitative 3D-mapper (LABQ3), based on the linearity of X-ray attenuation with respect to elemental concentrations. To address the random variability in attenuation measurements, LABQ3 employs Bayesian decision theory to minimize classification error, using reference attenuation distributions from scans of pure mineral standards. To demonstrate LABQ3 and test its performance, we studied precipitated carbonate samples. XCT scans were done at multiple energies using the transmission X-ray microscope (TXM) at beamline 32-ID-C of the Advanced Photon Source at Argonne National Laboratory. The reconstructed 3D images have a voxel size of 20 nm. Analyses revealed rich nano-scale compositional heterogeneity within individual particles. A mixture of calcium and cadmium produced an overall stoichiometric composition of (Ca 0.78 ,Cd 0.22 )CO 3 , with some voxels containing nearly pure CdCO 3 . The addition of zinc led to an overall stoichiometric composition of 33% Ca, 28% Cd, 39% Zn, with a nearly pure CaCO 3 core and compositional zonation through the rim. These compositional gradients are related to temporal sequences of carbonate mineral formation where Cd precipitated at the beginning in (Ca,Cd)CO 3 , while Cd and Zn precipitated at the end in (Ca, Cd,Zn)CO 3 . Results differ from bulk analyses using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS), showing that LABQ3 provides particle-specific insights. LABQ3 distinguishes itself by quantifying chemical compositions along a continuum, making it different from XCT analyses based on segmentation. LABQ3 allows simultaneous acquisition of morphology and chemical composition in 3D, facilitating the interpretation of chemical gradients of trace elements, quantification of solid solution compositions, inferences about temporal sequences of mineral precipitation, and addressing other concerns about solid-phase chemistry.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Benchmarking optimization methods for materials research: Gradient descent and Bayesian optimization for lithium-ion battery aging diagnostics

Accurate and efficient parameter estimation is essential for battery diagnostics and aging analysis. Here, in this study, we compare two optimization-based approaches—gradient descent and Bayesian optimization—for extracting parameters from differential voltage analysis in lithium-ion batteries. While these techniques are widely used, their relative strengths and limitations for this application are not well understood. The study evaluates the trade-offs between these methods in terms of result quality, computational cost, and reliability within this specific application. The diagnostic results from our battery data suggest adopting gradient descent as an initial method for rapid and efficient analysis, while employing more stable optimization techniques, such as Bayesian optimization, as a verification step to mitigate potential instability. Comparing the two methods provides information on algorithmic choice, while inspiring further discussions on selecting appropriate techniques for specific research tasks.

Zhao, Ziqing [Boston Univ., MA (United States)] (O↗

Emulator-based Bayesian calibration of a subglacial drainage model

Subglacial drainage models, often motivated by the relationship between hydrology and ice flow, sensitively depend on numerous unconstrained parameters. We explore using borehole water-pressure time series to calibrate the uncertain parameters of a popular subglacial drainage model, taking a Bayesian perspective to quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates and in the calibrated model predictions. To reduce the computation time associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we construct a fast Gaussian process emulator to stand in for the subglacial drainage model. We first carry out a calibration experiment using synthetic observations consisting of model simulations with hidden parameter values as a demonstration of the method. Using real borehole water pressures measured in western Greenland, we find meaningful constraints on four of the eight model parameters and a factor-of-three reduction in uncertainty of the calibrated model predictions. These experiments illustrate Gaussian process-based Bayesian inference as a useful tool for calibration and uncertainty quantification of complex glaciological models using field data. However, significant differences between the calibrated model and the borehole data suggest that structural limitations of the model, rather than poorly constrained parameters or computational cost, remain the most important constraint on subglacial drainage modelling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Bayesian Optimization of Catalysis with In-Context Learning

Large language models (LLMs) can perform accurate classification with zero or few examples through in-context learning (ICL), allowing the model to observe query-relevant examples at inference time and eliminating the need for additional weight updates to generalize beyond its original training data. We extend this capability to regression with uncertainty estimation using frozen LLMs (e.g., GPT-4o, Gemini), enabling Bayesian optimization (BO) in natural language without explicit model training or feature engineering. We apply this to materials discovery by representing materials as synthesis and testing procedures for use in natural language prompts. This Bayesian, design-first approach prioritizes optimization toward target material properties before detailed characterization, in contrast to conventional experimental workflows that often emphasize characterization of suboptimal materials. On benchmarks like aqueous solubility and oxidative coupling of methane (OCM), BO-ICL matches or outperforms Gaussian processes. In live experiments on the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, BO-ICL identifies multimetallic catalysts that approach equilibrium CO yield within 6 and 10 iterations from a pool of 3,700 and 360,000 candidates, respectively. Our method redefines materials representation and accelerates discovery, with broad applications across catalysis, materials science, and AI.

Calibration↗

Multi-objective Bayesian active learning for MeV-ultrafast electron diffraction

Ultrafast electron diffraction using MeV energy beams(MeV-UED) has enabled unprecedented scientific opportunities in the study of ultrafast structural dynamics in a variety of gas, liquid and solid state systems. Broad scientific applications usually pose different requirements for electron probe properties. Due to the complex, nonlinear and correlated nature of accelerator systems, electron beam property optimization is a time-taking process and often relies on extensive hand-tuning by experienced human operators. Algorithm based efficient online tuning strategies are highly desired. Here, we demonstrate multi-objective Bayesian active learning for speeding up online beam tuning at the SLAC MeV-UED facility. The multi-objective Bayesian optimization algorithm was used for efficiently searching the parameter space and mapping out the Pareto Fronts which give the trade-offs between key beam properties. Such scheme enables an unprecedented overview of the global behavior of the experimental system and takes a significantly smaller number of measurements compared with traditional methods such as a grid scan. This methodology can be applied in other experimental scenarios that require simultaneously optimizing multiple objectives by explorations in high dimensional, nonlinear and correlated systems.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Bayesian stability and force modeling for uncertain machining processes

Accurately simulating machining operations requires knowledge of the cutting force model and system frequency response. However, this data is collected using specialized instruments in an ex-situ manner. Bayesian statistical methods instead learn the system parameters using cutting test data, but to date, these approaches have only considered milling stability. This paper presents a physics-based Bayesian framework which incorporates both spindle power and milling stability. Initial probabilistic descriptions of the system parameters are propagated through a set of physics functions to form probabilistic predictions about the milling process. The system parameters are then updated using automatically selected cutting tests to reduce parameter uncertainty and identify more productive cutting conditions, where spindle power measurements are used to learn the cutting force model. The framework is demonstrated through both numerical and experimental case studies. Results show that the approach accurately identifies both the system natural frequency and cutting force model.

42 ENGINEERING↗