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At least 127 records · Page 7

Baseline Validation of Unstructured Grid Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Toward Flow Control

The value of the use of the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes methodology for active flow control applications is assessed. An experimental flow control database exists for a NACA0015 airfoil modified at the leading edge to implement a fluidic actuator; hence, this configuration is used. Computational results are documented for the baseline wing configuration (no control) with the experimental results and assumes two-dimensional flow. The baseline wing configuration has discontinuities at the leading edge, trailing edge, and aft of midchord on the upper surface. A limited number of active flow control applications have been tested in the laboratory and in flight. These applications include dynamic stall control using a deformable leading edge, separation control for takeoff and landing flight conditions using piezoelectric devices, pulsed vortex generators, zero-net-mass oscillations, and thrust vectoring with zero-net-mass piezoelectric-driven oscillatory actuation. As yet, there is no definitive comparison with experimental data that indicates current computational capabilities can quantitatively predict the large aerodynamic performance gains achieved with active flow control in the laboratory. However, one study using the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) methodology has shown good quantitative agreement with experimental results for an isolated zero-net-mass actuator. In addition, some recent studies have used RANS to demonstrate qualitative performance gains compared with the experimental data for separation control on an airfoil. Those quantitative comparisons for both baseline and flow control cases indicated that computational results were in poor quantitative agreement with the experiments. The current research thrust will investigate the potential use of an unstructured grid RANS approach to predict aerodynamic performance for active flow control applications building on the early studies. First the computational results must quantitatively match experiments for the no-control case before proceeding to the time-dependent flow control case. This paper documents the baseline (no-control) case using an unswept airfoil configuration. The next section describes the configurations used for the computations and the experimentals. The computational approach is then described followed by results and concluding remarks.

Joslin, Ronald D.↗

Baseline Maritime Aerosol: Methodology to Derive the Optical Thickness and Scattering Properties

Satellite Measurements of the global distribution of aerosol and their effect on climate should be viewed in respect to a baseline aerosol. In this concept, concentration of fine mode aerosol particles is elevated above the baseline by man-made activities (smoke or urban pollution), while coarse mode by natural processes (e.g. dust or sea-spray). Using 1-3 years of measurements in 10 stations of the Aerosol Robotic network (ACRONET we develop a methodology and derive the optical thickness and properties of this baseline aerosol for the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Defined as the median for periods of stable optical thickness (standard deviation < 0.02) during 2-6 days, the median baseline aerosol optical thickness over the Pacific Ocean is 0.052 at 500 am with Angstrom exponent of 0.77, and 0.071 and 1.1 respectively, over the Atlantic Ocean.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗

Method and apparatus for reliable inter-antenna baseline determination

Disclosed is a method for inter-antenna baseline determination that uses an antenna configuration comprising a pair of relatively closely spaced antennas and other pairs of distant antennas. The closely spaced pair provides a short baseline having an integer ambiguity that may be searched exhaustively to identify the correct set of integers. This baseline is then used as a priori information to aid the determination of longer baselines that, once determined, may be used for accurate run time attitude determination.

Wilson, John M.↗

Performance Assessment of Baseline Cells for the High Efficiency Space Power Systems Project

The Enabling Technology Development and Demonstration (ETDD) Program High Efficiency Space Power Systems (HESPS) Project, formerly the Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP) Energy Storage Project is tasked with developing advanced lithium-ion cells for future NASA Exploration missions. Under this project, components under development via various in-house and contracted efforts are delivered to Saft America for scale-up and integration into cells. Progress toward meeting project goals will be measured by comparing the performance to these cells with cells of a similar format with Saft s state-of-the-art aerospace chemistry. This report discusses the results of testing performed on the first set of baseline cells delivered by Saft to the NASA Glenn Research Center. This build is a cylindrical "DD" geometry with a 10 Ah nameplate capacity. Testing is being performed to establish baseline cell performance at conditions relevant to ETDD HESPS Battery Key Performance Parameter (KPP) goals including various temperatures, rates, and cycle life conditions. Data obtained from these cells will serve as a performance baseline for future cell builds containing optimized ETDD HESPSdeveloped materials. A test plan for these cells was developed to measure cell performance against the high energy cell KPP goals. The goal for cell-level specific energy of the high energy technology is 180 Wh/kg at a C/10 discharge rate and 0 C. The cells should operate for at least 2000 cycles at 100 percent DOD with 80 percent capacity retention. Baseline DD cells delivered 152 Wh/kg at 20 C. This number decreased to 143.9 Wh/kg with a 0 C discharge. This report provides performance data and summarizes results of the testing performed on the DD cells.

Schneidegger, Brianne T.↗

Synthesizing SMOS Zero-Baselines with Aquarius Brightness Temperature Simulator

SMOS [1] and Aquarius [2] are ESA and NASA missions, respectively, to make L-band measurements from the Low Earth Orbit. SMOS makes passive measurements whereas Aquarius measures both passive and active. SMOS was launched in November 2009 and Aquarius in June 2011.The scientific objectives of the missions are overlapping: both missions aim at mapping the global Sea Surface Salinity (SSS). Additionally, SMOS mission produces soil moisture product (however, Aquarius data will eventually be used for retrieving soil moisture too). The consistency of the brightness temperature observations made by the two instruments is essential for long-term studies of SSS and soil moisture. For resolving the consistency, the calibration of the instruments is the key. The basis of the SMOS brightness temperature level is the measurements performed with the so-called zero-baselines [3]; SMOS employs an interferometric measurement technique which forms a brightness temperature image from several baselines constructed by combination of multiple receivers in an array; zero-length baseline defines the overall brightness temperature level. The basis of the Aquarius brightness temperature level is resolved from the brightness temperature simulator combined with ancillary data such as antenna patterns and environmental models [4]. Consistency between the SMOS zero-baseline measurements and the simulator output would provide a robust basis for establishing the overall comparability of the missions.

Colliander, A.↗

Operational Impact of the Baseline Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface System Field Demonstration

To address the Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) challenge, NASA is developing and demonstrating trajectory-based departure automation under a collaborative effort with the FAA and industry known as Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2). ATD-2 builds upon and integrates previous NASA research capabilities that include the Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA), the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC), and the Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSAS) capability. The ATD-2 field demonstration is organized into three phases. Phase I illustrates a Baseline IADS demonstration and includes all components of ATD-2 running in operational environments. Subsequent phases will fuse together strategic scheduling components as well as take into account metroplex considerations. This paper describes the baseline IADS system that was deployed at the end of 2017 and is continuing to run as part of the ATD-2 demonstration taking place at Charlotte-Douglas International Airport (CLT). The primary areas of deployment and system use are in the CLT Air Traffic Control Tower, CLT TRACON, CLT American Airlines ramp tower, Washington Center facility and American Airlines Integration Operations Center (IOC). In addition to describing the functions and capabilities that are part of the baseline IADS system, this paper also provides metrics regarding operational use as well as initial benefits metrics. Benefit metrics continue to be collected and aggregated across the areas of system delay, throughput, taxi time, fuel burn savings, and emissions savings. Furthermore, benefits as a result of common awareness of delays and the impact of takeoff and departure restrictions stemming from traffic flow management initiatives are described. The overall benefit of improved predictability and efficiency as a result of the baseline IADS system demonstration is also discussed.

operational system↗

Baseline Risk Assessment Supporting Closure at Waste Management Area C at the Hanford Site Washington

The Office of River Protection under the U.S. Department of Energy is pursuing closure of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Waste Management Area (WMA) C under the requirements of the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (HFFACO). A baseline risk assessment (BRA) of current conditions is based on available characterization data and information collected at WMA C. The baseline risk assessment is being developed as a part of a Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation (RFI)/Corrective Measures Study (CMS) at WMA C that is mandatory under Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act and RCRA corrective action. The RFI/CMS is needed to identify and evaluate the hazardous chemical and radiological contamination in the vadose zone from past releases of waste from WMA C. WMA C will be under Federal ownership and control for the foreseeable future, and managed as an industrial area with restricted access and various institutional controls. The exposure scenarios evaluated under these conditions include Model Toxics Control Act (MTCA) Method C, industrial worker, maintenance and surveillance worker, construction worker, and trespasser scenarios. The BRA evaluates several unrestricted land use scenarios (residential all-pathway, MTCA Method B, and Tribal) to provide additional information for risk management. Analytical results from 13 shallow zone (0 to 15 ft. below ground surface) sampling locations were collected to evaluate human health impacts at WMA C. In addition, soil analytical data were screened against background concentrations and ecological soil screening levels to determine if soil concentrations have the potential to adversely affect ecological receptors. Analytical data from 12 groundwater monitoring wells were evaluated between 2004 and 2013. A screening of groundwater monitoring data against background concentrations and Federal maximum concentration levels was used to determine vadose zone contamination impacts on groundwater. Waste Management Area C is the first of the Hanford tank farms to begin the closure planning process. The current baseline risk assessment will provide valuable information for making corrective actions and closure decisions for WMA C, and will also support the planning for future tank farm soil investigation and baseline risk assessments.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Design and Modeling of an Open-Source Baseline Floating Marine Turbine: Preprint

Marine energy resources such as river, tidal, and ocean currents can provide abundant, predictable, and clean power to both densely populated and remote communities globally. However, marine turbine technologies are still in an early stage of development. Recently, features have been added to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's open-source wind turbine modeling tool OpenFAST to support the simulation of axial-flow marine turbines. These new features enable marine energy developers to predict the performance and safety of their turbines and allow researchers and students to advance the field through the exploration of novel designs. Developing and demonstrating the new capabilities of OpenFAST for marine turbines requires a baseline design that can be used as an example and test case. There are limited open-source turbine models suitable for this purpose. One existing baseline design is the Reference Model 1 (RM1), a fixed-bottom, dual-rotor marine turbine that was published in 2014 as part of the Department of Energy's Water Power Reference Model Project. To test and demonstrate OpenFAST's ability to model floating marine turbines, several modifications were made to the RM1. A floating platform and mooring system were designed to support a single RM1 rotor in a wide range of possible current and wave conditions. The system and model are intended to be a stable reference case and starting point for research efforts. The platform features all cylindrical members and familiar design elements from the offshore wind industry; the mooring system uses simple catenary chains. While not optimized for the lowest platform cost, the design is understandable and robust and can serve as a baseline for floating marine turbine technologies. This is a useful starting point for studies to explore new technologies or design methodologies. Additionally, the floating RM1 design enables cross-collaboration among industry, academia, and national lab researchers and serves as an educational platform for newcomers to marine energy. This short paper presents the specifications of the turbine, including its floating support structure and mooring system. The rationale behind the selection of certain design parameters is described. To enable adoption of this baseline case for research and educational efforts, an OpenFAST model of the full system has been made publicly available at https://github.com/OpenFAST/r-test/tree/main/glue-codes/openfast/MHK_RM1_Floating.

floating↗

Neutronics Analysis Supporting Baseline Fuel-Rodlet Irradiation Design in TREAT Multi-SERTTA Vehicle

The Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) Facility is a thermal-spectrum test reactor designed to evaluate reactor fuels and structural material under simulated nuclear excursion and transient power/cooling mismatch situations in nuclear reactors. TREAT was historically operated from 1959 through 1994. There are ongoing activities to resume its transient testing capabilities to support advanced reactor designs and validate computational predictions of fuel and core behavior. Such validation will be an important factor for review and approval of next generation power reactor design and safety evaluations. Historic methods used in TREAT were very approximate and served to estimate a predicted transient power shape. A number of calibration test experiments were then required prior to the actual transient test to better estimate the power that would have been deposited in the experiment during a transient pulse. Much of the experience in the use of these legacy methods has also been lost over the past two decades. Monte Carlo criticality codes are being utilized for calculation of the initial critical state, control rod reactivity worth, and power coupling between core and experiments. Current efforts primarily support neutronics characterization with safety and design analyses for the Multi-SERTTA (Static Environment Rodlet Transient Test Apparatuses) experiment test vehicle, which can accommodate up to four concurrent rodlets under separate environmental conditions. Ongoing efforts are necessary in preparation of transient testing support for Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) characterization and other future fuels testing requirements. The power coupling factor (PCF) is one of two key parameters utilized in designing and characterizing the performance of a TREAT fuel irradiation experiment. The second key parameter is the Transient Correction Factor (TCF) which accounts for time-dependent effects. The PCF is the effective quantity of fission-generated energy per mass of fuel specimen per total core energy. The quantity of energy deposited into a fuel rodlet under various test environments can be used to evaluate overall fuel performance, including failure mechanisms and thresholds. Baseline fuel rodlet calculations have been performed to estimate the effectiveness of the Multi-SERTTA test vehicle and optimization of PCF for various test conditions. The baseline serves as reference fuel pin conditions against which calibration and baseline experiments can be performed prior to actual ATF transient testing. Baseline experiments further serve to validate computational analyses and experimental test methods prior to design planning, experimentation, and evaluation of the ATF candidates. This paper serves to document activities performed to evaluate a reference Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) rodlet design in the TREAT Multi-SERTTA test vehicle. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multi-technology building system retrofits for utility incentive programs: Savings, costs and baseline considerations

Utility incentive programs are an important channel to support the deployment of energy efficiency in buildings. To date, these programs have largely been limited to single-component strategies. However, many utilities are now motivated to identify and develop multi-component system retrofits to achieve deeper energy savings, which are essential to achieving broader energy and greenhouse gas reduction goals in the buildings sector. In this paper we present the energy savings, demand reductions, and cost-effectiveness of 16 systems retrofit packages in six utility regions in the United States. These results are being used by these utilities to inform and develop incentive programs for systems retrofits. Our analysis shows that packages with proven lighting and HVAC measures can provide 5–22% whole building annual energy savings, and 13–22% annual energy costs savings, using utility incentive program baselines (code and existing building). The packages are reasonably cost effective for replace-on-burnout but generally not for a retrofit scenario prior to end of equipment life. Demand response can increase both the energy savings and energy cost savings, further improving the cost effectiveness of these packages. We analyzed the impact of using existing building vs. code baselines for calculating savings, showing that the choice of baseline in developing utility incentive programs has a substantial impact on the attributable energy savings to a program, with significant implications for the overall viability of a program (generally savings against existing building condition are higher and improve project and program cost-effectiveness).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

High fusion performance at high T i / T e in JET-ILW baseline plasmas with high NBI heating power and low gas puffing

This article presents the transport analysis of high density baseline discharges in the 2016 experimental campaign of the Joint European Torus with the ITER-Like Wall (JET-ILW), where a significant increase in the deuterium–deuterium (D–D) fusion neutron rate (~2.8 × 10 16 s -1 ) was achieved with stable high neutral beam injection (NBI) powers of up to 28 MW and low gas puffing. Increase in T i exceeding T e were produced for the first time in baseline discharges despite the high electron density; this enabled a significant increase in the thermal fusion reaction rate. As a result, the new achieved record in fusion performance was much higher than the previous record in the same heating power baseline discharges, where T i = T e . In addition to the decreases in collisionality and the increases in ion heating fraction in the discharges with high NBI power, T i > T e can also be attributed to positive feedback between the high T i /T e ratio and stabilisation of the turbulent heat flux resulting from the ion temperature gradient driven mode. The high T i /T e ratio was correlated with high rotation frequency. Among the discharges with identical beam heating power, higher rotation frequencies were observed when particle fuelling was provided by low gas puffing and pellet injection. Lastly, this reveals that particle fuelling played a key role for achieving high T i /T e , and the improved fusion performance.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

First Very Long Baseline Interferometry Detections at 870μm

The first very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) detections at 870$\mu$m wavelength (345$\,$GHz frequency) are reported, achieving the highest diffraction-limited angular resolution yet obtained from the surface of the Earth, and the highest-frequency example of the VLBI technique to date. These include strong detections for multiple sources observed on inter-continental baselines between telescopes in Chile, Hawaii, and Spain, obtained during observations in October 2018. The longest-baseline detections approach 11$\,$G$\lambda$ corresponding to an angular resolution, or fringe spacing, of 19$\mu$as. The Allan deviation of the visibility phase at 870$\mu$m is comparable to that at 1.3$\,$mm on the relevant integration time scales between 2 and 100$\,$s. The detections confirm that the sensitivity and signal chain stability of stations in the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) array are suitable for VLBI observations at 870$\mu$m. Operation at this short wavelength, combined with anticipated enhancements of the EHT, will lead to a unique high angular resolution instrument for black hole studies, capable of resolving the event horizons of supermassive black holes in both space and time.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

WaterTAP3 Model Input Data for NAWI's Eight Source Water Baseline Analyses

This folder contains the input data for the WaterTAP3 model that was used for the eight NAWI (National Alliance for Water Innovation) source water baselines studies published in the Environmental Science and Technology special issue: Technology Baselines and Innovation Priorities for Water Treatment and Supply. There are also eight other separate DAMS submissions, one per source water, that include the model results for the published studies. In this data submission, all model inputs across the eight baselines are included. The data structure and content are described in a README.txt file. For more details on how to use the data in WaterTAP3 please refer to the model documentation and GitHub site found at "WaterTAP3 Github" linked in the submission resources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Baseline Characterization Database Verification Report ? NBG-17 Billet V104

The purpose of this report is to present data collected in the Baseline Graphite Characterization Program, which is directly tasked with supporting the Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL’s) research and development efforts on the Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Program. This program populates a comprehensive database that reflects the baseline properties of nuclear-grade graphite regarding individual grade, billet, and position within individual billets. The physical- and mechanical-property information being collected will be transferred to the Nuclear Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS), and that database will help populate the handbook of property data available to member nations of the Generation-IV International Forum. Transfer of these data from the applicable technical lead to the dissemination databases available to other end users requires a full review of the test procedures and data-collection efforts through an analysis of the multiple summary spreadsheets and values being collected. This report represents the analysis for NBG-17 Billet V104 and facilitates release of associated data to the NDMAS custodians. Millions of raw data points have been collected during testing and quantification analyses for these billets. The summary scalar property values and supplementary traceability data are collected into comprehensive spreadsheets. Data sets are composed of single billets of graphite for any given grade, organized by mechanical test-specimen type, and further subdivided into individual spreadsheet tabs according to the specific test or evaluation being performed. A direct analysis of properties was not conducted, and this report does not provide information on the validity or performance characteristics of the graphite itself. Rather, this report is intended as a verification of the completeness of actual data collected in accordance with PLN-3467, “Baseline Graphite Characterization Plan: Electromechanical Testing,” [1] and PLN-3348 “Graphite Mechanical Testing” [2] and their representation of the measurement and test results with sole regard to the graphite billets under evaluation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The Association Between Baseline Hepatic or Renal Function and Clinical Outcomes for Patients With Non–Small Cell Lung Cancer Treated With a PD –1/PD– L1 Blocking Antibody Using Real–World and Trial Data

Clinical trials have demonstrated the benefit of PD-1/PD-L1 blocking antibodies for the treatment of patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in defined patient populations that often exclude patients with moderate or severe hepatic or renal impairment. We assessed the association between overall survival (OS) and baseline organ function in patients with advanced NSCLC treated with PD-1/PD-L1 blocking antibodies in real-world data (RWD; patient-level data from electronic health records) and pooled clinical trial data submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The Kaplan–Meier estimator was used to estimate OS in different subgroups based on organ function. Unadjusted and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association between OS and organ function. In this hypothesis-generating study, baseline renal impairment did not appear to be associated with OS, while patients with baseline liver impairment had shorter OS. RWD provided information on a broader range of renal and hepatic function than was evaluated in clinical trials and hold promise to complement trial data in better understanding populations not represented in clinical trials.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The impact of sterile neutrinos on CP measurements at long baselines

With the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) as an example, we show that the presence of even one sterile neutrino of mass ~1 eV can significantly impact the measurements of CP violation in long baseline experiments. Using a probability level analysis and neutrino-antineutrino asymmetry calculations, we discuss the large magnitude of these effects, and show how they translate into significant event rate deviations at DUNE. These results demonstrate that measurements which, when interpreted in the context of the standard three family paradigm, indicate CP conservation at long baselines, may, in fact hide large CP violation if there is a sterile state. Similarly, any data indicating the violation of CP cannot be properly interpreted within the standard paradigm unless the presence of sterile states of mass O(1 eV) can be conclusively ruled out. Our work underscores the need for a parallel and linked short baseline oscillation program and a highly capable near detector for DUNE, but in order that its highly anticipated results on CP violation in the lepton sector may be correctly interpreted.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Evaluation of diffusion kurtosis and diffusivity from baseline staging MRI as predictive biomarkers for response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation in locally advanced rectal cancer

Purpose: To evaluate the role of diffusion kurtosis and diffusivity as potential imaging biomarkers to predict response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy (CRT) from baseline staging magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Materials and methods: This retrospective study included 45 consecutive patients (31 male/14 female) who underwent baseline MRI with high b-value sequences (up to 1500 mm/s{sup 2}) for LARC followed by neoadjuvant chemoradiation and surgical resection. The mean age was 57.4 years (range 34.2–72.9). An abdominal radiologist using open source software manually segmented T2-weighted images. Segmentations were used to derive diffusion kurtosis and diffusivity from diffusion-weighted images as well as volumetric data. These data were analyzed with regard to tumor regression grade (TRG) using the four-tier American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) classification, TRG 0–3. Proportional odds regression was used to analyze the four-level ordinal outcome. A sensitivity analysis was performed using univariable logistic regression for binary TRG groups, TRG 0/1 (> 90% response), or TRG 2/3 (< 90% response). p < 0.05 was considered significant throughout. Results: In the univariable proportional odds regression analysis, higher diffusivity summary (D{sub sum}) values were observed to be significantly associated with higher odds of being in one or more favorable TRG group (TRG 0 or 1). In other words, on average, patients with higher D{sub sum} values were more likely to be in a more favorable TRG group. These results are mostly consistent with the sensitivity analysis, in which higher values for most D{sub sum} values [all but region of interest (ROI)-max D median (p = 0.08)] were observed to be significantly associated with higher odds of being TRG 0 or 1. Tumor volume of interest (VOI) and ROI volume, ROI kurtosis mean and median, and VOI kurtosis mean and median were not significantly associated with TRG. Conclusion: Diffusivity derived from the baseline staging MRI, but not diffusion kurtosis or volumetric data, is associated with TRG and therefore shows promise as a potential imaging biomarker to predict the response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in LARC. Clinical relevance statement: Diffusivity shows promise as a potential imaging biomarker to predict AJCC TRG following neoadjuvant CRT, which has implications for risk stratification. Patients with TRG 0/1 have 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) of 90–98%, as opposed to those who are TRG 2/3 with 5-year DFS of 68–73%.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Population-based assessment of the national comprehensive cancer network recommendations for baseline imaging of hepatocellular carcinoma

This analysis aims to evaluate the performance characteristics of alternative baseline imaging thresholds in a cohort of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. HCC patients within the SEER database (2010–2015) who had complete information on clinical T and N stages as well as complete information on metastatic sites were eligible for the current study. Various performance characteristics associated with baseline imaging were investigated, including specificity, sensitivity, positive likelihood ratio (LR), negative LR, number needed to investigate (NNI), negative predictive value (NPV), positive predictive value (PPV), and accuracy. A total of 27,201 HCC patients were included. Based on current recommendations that advocate for the use of cross-sectional chest imaging in all newly diagnosed cases of HCC, these recommendations would yield a PPV of 5.0% for the detection of lung metastases. This would translate to an NNI of 20.0. When T1N0 patients were excluded from routine chest or bone imaging, this resulted in a PPV of 6.8% for the identification of lung metastases and an NNI of 14.7. Likewise, this translated to a PPV of 4.6% for the identification of bone metastases and an NNI of 21.7. Similarly, when patients with T1N0 disease and normal alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) were excluded from routine imaging, this resulted in a PPV of 5.6% for the identification of lung metastases and an NNI of 17.8. Also, this translated to a PPV of 3.8% for the identification of bone metastases and an NNI of 26.3. The current study suggests that the omission of routine baseline chest imaging may be considered in selected patients with asymptomatic early-stage HCC and normal AFP.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗