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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Self-similar Reynolds-averaged mechanical–scalar turbulence models for Rayleigh–Taylor, Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz instability-induced mixing in the small Atwood number limit

Analytical self-similar solutions to two-, three-, and four-equation Reynolds-averaged mechanical–scalar turbulence models describing incompressible turbulent Rayleigh–Taylor, Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz instability-induced mixing in planar geometry are derived in the small Atwood number (Boussinesq) limit. The models are based on the turbulent kinetic energy K and its dissipation rate ε, together with the scalar (heavy-fluid mass fraction) variance S and its dissipation rate Χ modeled either differentially or algebraically. The models allow for a simultaneous description of mechanical and scalar mixing, i.e., mixing layer growth and molecular mixing, respectively. Mixing layer growth parameters and other physical observables relevant to each instability are obtained explicitly as functions of the model coefficients. The turbulent fields are also expressed in terms of the model coefficients, with their temporal power-law scalings obtained by requiring that the self-similar equations are explicitly time-independent. The model calibration methodology is described and discussed. Expressions for a subset of the various physical observables are used to calibrate each of the two-, three-, and four-equation models, such that the self-similar solutions are consistent with experimental and numerical simulation data corresponding to these values of the observables and to specific canonical Rayleigh–Taylor, Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz turbulent flows. A calibrated four-equation model is then used to reconstruct the mean and turbulent fields, and late-time turbulent equation budgets for each instability-induced flow across the mixing layer. The reference solutions derived here can provide systematic calibrations and better understanding of mechanical–scalar turbulence models and their predictions for instability-induced turbulent mixing in the very large Reynolds number limit.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Future projections and uncertainty assessment of precipitation extremes in the Korean peninsula from the CMIP5 ensemble

Abstract Projections of changes in extreme climate are sometimes predicted by multimodel ensemble methods that combine forecasts from individual simulation models using weighted averaging. One method to assign weight to each model is the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in which posterior probability is used. For the cases of extreme climate, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) is typically used. We applied the approach of GEV‐embedded BMA to a series of 35 years of the annual maximum daily precipitation data (both historical data and data gathered from simulation experiments for future periods) over the Korean peninsula as simulated by the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Simulation data under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used. Observed data and 17 CMIP5 models for 12 gird cells in Korea have been examined to predict future changes in precipitation extremes. A simple regional frequency analysis of pooling observations from three stations in each cell was employed to reduce the estimation variance and local fluctuations. A bias correction technique using the regression‐type transfer function was applied to these simulation data. Return levels spanning over 20 and 50 years, as well as the return periods relative to the reference years (1971–2005), were estimated for two future periods, namely Period 1 (2021–2050) and Period 2 (2066–2095). From these analyses, relative increase observed in the spatially averaged 20‐year (50‐year) return level was approximately 23% (16%) and 45% (36%) in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 experiments, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. We concluded that extreme rainfalls will likely occur two times and four times more frequently in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, as compared to in the reference years by the end of the 21st century.

Lee, Youngsaeng↗
DOE OSTI2023

Combining pairwise structural similarity and deep learning interface contact prediction to estimate protein complex model accuracy in CASP15

Abstract Estimating the accuracy of quaternary structural models of protein complexes and assemblies (EMA) is important for predicting quaternary structures and applying them to studying protein function and interaction. The pairwise similarity between structural models is proven useful for estimating the quality of protein tertiary structural models, but it has been rarely applied to predicting the quality of quaternary structural models. Moreover, the pairwise similarity approach often fails when many structural models are of low quality and similar to each other. To address the gap, we developed a hybrid method (MULTICOM_qa) combining a pairwise similarity score (PSS) and an interface contact probability score (ICPS) based on the deep learning inter‐chain contact prediction for estimating protein complex model accuracy. It blindly participated in the 15th Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP15) in 2022 and performed very well in estimating the global structure accuracy of assembly models. The average per‐target correlation coefficient between the model quality scores predicted by MULTICOM_qa and the true quality scores of the models of CASP15 assembly targets is 0.66. The average per‐target ranking loss in using the predicted quality scores to rank the models is 0.14. It was able to select good models for most targets. Moreover, several key factors (i.e., target difficulty, model sampling difficulty, skewness of model quality, and similarity between good/bad models) for EMA are identified and analyzed. The results demonstrate that combining the multi‐model method (PSS) with the complementary single‐model method (ICPS) is a promising approach to EMA.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scalar mixing in a Kelvin-Helmholtz shear layer and implications for Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes modeling of mixing layers

Large-eddy simulation of a temporally evolving Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) mixing layer is performed with the tenth-order compact difference code miranda to examine the steady-state behavior of a passive scalar in a shear-driven mixing layer. It is shown that the integral behavior of scalar variance in a KH mixing layer behaves similarly to the integral behavior of scalar variance in a Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) mixing layer, and mixedness of the simulated KH shear layer tends towards a value of about 0.8. It is further shown that if the k-L-a-V Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model [B. E. Morgan et al., Phys. Rev. E 98, 033111 (2018)], calibrated to reproduce steady-state mixing in an RT layer, is applied to simulate a KH mixing layer, the RANS model will significantly overpredict the magnitude of scalar variance in the KH layer. A straightforward addition to the k-L-a-V model is then suggested, and self-similarity analysis is applied to determine constraints on model coefficients. Furthermore, it is shown that with the addition of a buoyancy production term in the model equation for scalar variance, it becomes possible to eliminate the model deficiency and match steady-state mixedness in simulations of both RT and KH mixing layers with a single model calibration.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermohydraulic experiments on a supercritical carbon dioxide–air microtube heat exchanger

Heat exchangers are critical components in supercritical CO 2 Brayton cycles and provide necessary heat input, recovery, and dissipation. Tubular heat exchangers with unconventionally small tube sizes (tube diameters less than 5 mm) are promising components for supercritical CO 2 cycles and potentially provide excellent structural stability with wide scope of application. This paper provides essential design and fabrication guidelines for a compact shell-and-tube heat exchanger with microtubes (with an inner diameter equal to 1.75 mm). A heat exchanger test rig is used to evaluate the thermohydraulic performance of this heat exchanger with supercritical CO 2 and air as working fluids. Thermohydraulic data are reported for more than forty sets of experiments with varying Reynolds numbers for shell and tube flows. Critical performance metrics are calculated from the data and compared with predictions from a previously described numerical model. The average deviations between the experimental and model results fall within 10% for all critical metrics. This excellent agreement validates the numerical model for supercritical CO 2 heat exchanger optimization and scale-up.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Synchronization of Alternative Models in a Supermodel and the Learning of Critical Behavior

“Supermodeling” climate by allowing different models to assimilate data from one another in run time has been shown to give results superior to those of any one model and superior to any weighted average of model outputs. The only free parameters, connection strengths between corresponding variables in each pair of models, are determined using some form of machine learning. It is demonstrated that supermodeling succeeds because near critical states, interscale interactions are important but unresolved processes cannot be effectively represented diagnostically in any single parameterization scheme. In two examples, a pair of toy quasigeostrophic (QG) channel models of the midlatitudes and a pair of ECHAM5 models of the tropical Pacific atmosphere with a common ocean, supermodels dynamically combine parameterization schemes so as to capture criticality, associated critical structures, and the supporting scale interactions. The QG supermodeling scheme extends a previous configuration in which two such models synchronize with intermodel connections only between medium-scale components of the flow; here the connections are trained against a third “real” model. Intermittent blocking patterns characterize the critical behavior thus obtained, even where such patterns are missing in the constituent models. In the ECHAM-based climate supermodel, the corresponding critical structure is the single ITCZ pattern, a pattern that occurs in neither of the constituent models. In conclusion, for supermodels of both types, power spectra indicate enhanced interscale interactions in frequency or energy ranges of physical interest, in agreement with observed data, and supporting a generalized form of the self-organized criticality hypothesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Plant-level performance and degradation of 31 GW DC of utility-scale PV in the United States

In this updated study, which samples 50% more capacity than the original and adds two additional years of operating history, we assess the performance of a fleet of 631 utility-scale PV plants totaling 31.0 GW DC (23.6 GW AC ) of capacity that achieved commercial operations in the United States from 2007-2018 and that have operated for at least two full calendar years. We use detailed information on individual plant characteristics, in conjunction with modeled irradiance data, to model expected or “ideal” capacity factors in each full calendar year of each plant’s operating history. A comparison of ideal versus actual first-year capacity factors finds that this fleet has modestly underperformed initial expectations (as modeled) on average, though perhaps due as much to modeling issues as to actual underperformance. We then analyze fleet-wide performance degradation in subsequent years by employing a “fixed effects” regression model to statistically isolate the impact of age on plant performance. The resulting average fleet-wide degradation rate of -1.2%/year (±0.1%) represents a slight improvement (seemingly driven by the oldest plants in our sample) over the -1.3%/year (±0.2%) found in our original study, yet is still of greater magnitude than is commonly found. We emphasize, however, that these fleet-wide estimates reflect both recoverable and unrecoverable degradation across the entire plant, and so will naturally be of greater magnitude than module- or cell-level studies, and/or studies that focus only on unrecoverable degradation. Moreover, when focusing on a sub-sample of newer and larger plants with higher DC:AC ratios—i.e., plants that more-closely resemble what is being built today—we find a more moderate sample-wide average performance decline of -0.7%/year (±0.4%), which is more in line with other estimates from the recent literature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Large-eddy simulation and Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes modeling of three Rayleigh-Taylor mixing configurations with gravity reversal

In this work, high-fidelity large-eddy simulation (LES) is performed of Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) mixing in three different configurations involving gravity reversal. In each configuration, LES results are compared with one-dimensional Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) results, and a deficiency in a commonly used transport equation for the mass-flux velocity, $a_j$, is identified. In the first configuration, a classical two-component RT mixing layer is allowed to develop before it is subjected to rapid acceleration reversal. In the second configuration, a three-component RT mixing layer with an intermediate density layer is allowed to develop before being subjected to rapid acceleration reversal. Finally, in the third configuration, a light layer is interposed between two heavy layers; in this configuration, only one interface is RT-unstable at a time as it undergoes rapid acceleration reversal. In all cases, a commonly used buoyancy production closure in the $a_j$ transport equation is shown to lead to significant over-prediction of mixing layer growth after gravity reversal. An alternative formulation for this closure is then presented which is shown to more accurately capture the stabilization effect of gravity reversal.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving dynamic collision frequencies: Impacts on dynamic structure factors and stopping powers in warm dense matter

Simulations and diagnostics of high-energy-density plasmas and warm dense matter rely on models of material response properties, both static and dynamic (frequency-dependent). Here, in this work, we systematically investigate variations in dynamic electron–ion collision frequencies ν(ω) in warm dense matter using data from a self-consistent-field average-atom model. We show that including the full quantum density of states, strong collisions, and inelastic collisions lead to significant changes in ν(ω). These changes result in red shifts and broadening of the plasmon peak in the dynamic structure factor, an effect observable in x-ray Thomson scattering spectra, and modify stopping powers around the Bragg peak. These changes improve the agreement of computationally efficient average-atom models with first-principles time-dependent density functional theory in warm dense aluminum, carbon, and deuterium.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Open‐source photovoltaic model pipeline validation against well‐characterized system data

Abstract All freely available plane‐of‐array (POA) transposition models and photovoltaic (PV) temperature and performance models in pvlib‐python and pvpltools‐python were examined against multiyear field data from Albuquerque, New Mexico. The data include different PV systems composed of crystalline silicon modules that vary in cell type, module construction, and materials. These systems have been characterized via IEC 61853‐1 and 61853‐2 testing, and the input data for each model were sourced from these system‐specific test results, rather than considering any generic input data (e.g., manufacturer's specification [spec] sheets or generic Panneau Solaire [PAN] files). Six POA transposition models, 7 temperature models, and 12 performance models are included in this comparative analysis. These freely available models were proven effective across many different types of technologies. The POA transposition models exhibited average normalized mean bias errors (NMBEs) within ±3%. Most PV temperature models underestimated temperature exhibiting mean and median residuals ranging from −6.5°C to 2.7°C; all temperature models saw a reduction in root mean square error when using transient assumptions over steady state. The performance models demonstrated similar behavior with a first and third interquartile NMBEs within ±4.2% and an overall average NMBE within ±2.3%. Although differences among models were observed at different times of the day/year, this study shows that the availability of system‐specific input data is more important than model selection. For example, using spec sheet or generic PAN file data with a complex PV performance model does not guarantee a better accuracy than a simpler PV performance model that uses system‐specific data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reactive Flows in Porous Media: Challenges in Theoretical and Numerical Methods

We review theoretical and computational research, primarily from the past 10 years, addressing the flow of reactive fluids in porous media. The focus is on systems where chemical reactions at the solid–fluid interface cause dissolution of the surrounding porous matrix, creating nonlinear feedback mechanisms that can often lead to greatly enhanced permeability. Here, we discuss insights into the evolution of geological forms that can be inferred from these feedback mechanisms, as well as some geotechnical applications such as enhanced oil recovery, hydraulic fracturing, and carbon sequestration. Until recently, most practical applications of reactive transport have been based on Darcy-scale modeling, where averaged equations for the flow and reactant transport are solved. We summarize the successes and limitations of volume averaging, which leads to Darcy-scale equations, as an introduction to pore-scale modeling. Pore-scale modeling is computationally intensive but offers new insights as well as tests of averaging theories and pore-network models. We include recent research devoted to validation of pore-scale simulations, particularly the use of visual observations from microfluidic experiments.

wormhole formation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Changes in Precipitation and Air Temperature Contribute Comparably to Permafrost Degradation in a Warmer Climate: Modeling Archive

The dataset contains "ecosys" model outputs reported in Mekonnen et al. (2021) to examine the importance of heat transfer from precipitation on permafrost degradation. The study highlighted the importance of mechanistically representing this process in earth system models (ESMs) and demonstrated that precipitation is as important an environmental control on permafrost degradation as surface air temperature. Included are (1) the modeled spatially averaged annual active layer depth (ALD) and daily maximum soil temperature across the North Slope of Alaska from 1980 to 2100, and (2) 25 km resolution modeled ALD for averaged for two time intervals, 2006 - 2010 and 2096 - 2100. The results are provided for two "ecosys" simulations: S1 with precipitation heat transfer and S2 without precipitation heat transfer across the North Slope of Alaska. These data are available in a NetCDF and csv data formats. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Surrogate model evaluation and building energy benchmarking for commercial buildings

Building energy consumption benchmarking involves challenges associated with various energy patterns for different building types; heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system types; and climates. Given significant variation in energy use patterns, accurate prediction of long-term energy use using surrogate models remains challenging. Multiple linear regression (MLR) is commonly used for building energy benchmarking because of its simple structure; however, it lacks accuracy compared to other black-box models. Although many studies have compared surrogate models and offer guidance on model selection based on metrics, they do not provide detailed analysis on improving the surrogate model accuracy. In this paper, we implement a surrogate model using polynomial ridge regression (i.e., MLR with interaction terms combined with ridge regularization) for small office and retail strip mall buildings across six HVAC system types and all climate zones, for electricity and natural gas in baseline and proposed scenarios. A simulation workflow is developed using OpenStudio TM /EnergyPlus TM to generate simulation data using measures over a wide range of efficiency inputs. Enhancements based on statistical insights are used for improving the model accuracy using filters, input transformations, and change points. Surrogate models achieved average coefficient of variation of the root mean squared error (CVRMSE) values of 2.17, 1.06, 2.05, and 3.26 for proposed electricity, proposed natural gas, baseline electricity, and baseline natural gas, respectively, with enhancements reducing CVRMSE by an average of 14.9% across all combinations. We provide model interpretation via Shapley additive explanations to determine which input variables most influence energy consumption and provide supportive arguments for enhancements.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing physics-based input features within a machine learning model to predict wind speed forecasting error

Machine learning is quickly becoming a commonly used technique for wind speed and power forecasting. Many machine learning methods utilize exogenous variables as input features, but there remains the question of which atmospheric variables are most beneficial for forecasting, especially in handling non-linearities that lead to forecasting error. This question is addressed via creation of a hybrid model that utilizes an autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model to make an initial wind speed forecast followed by a random forest model that attempts to predict the ARIMA forecasting error using knowledge of exogenous atmospheric variables. Variables conveying information about atmospheric stability and turbulence as well as inertial forcing are found to be useful in dealing with non-linear error prediction. Streamwise wind speed, time of day, turbulence intensity, turbulent heat flux, vertical velocity, and wind direction are found to be particularly useful when used in unison for hourly and 3 h timescales. The prediction accuracy of the developed ARIMA–random forest hybrid model is compared to that of the persistence and bias-corrected ARIMA models. The ARIMA–random forest model is shown to improve upon the latter commonly employed modeling methods, reducing hourly forecasting error by up to 5 % below that of the bias-corrected ARIMA model and achieving an R 2 value of 0.84 with true wind speed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Air compressor load forecasting using artificial neural network

Air compressor systems are responsible for approximately 10% of the electricity consumed in United States and European Union industry. As many researches have proven the effectiveness of using Artificial Neural Network inair compressor performance prediction, there is still a need to forecast the air compressor electrical load profile. The objective of this study is to predict compressed air systems’ electrical load profile, which is valuable to industry practitioners as well as software providers in developing better practice and tools for load managementand look-ahead scheduling programs. Two artificial neural networks, Two-Layer Feed-Forward Neural Networkand Long Short-Term Memory were used to predict an air compressors electrical load. Compressors with three different control mechanisms are evaluated with a total number of 11,874 observations. Here, the forecasts were validated using out-of-sample datasets with 5-fold cross-validation. Models produced average coefficient ofdetermination values from 0.24 to 0.94, average root-mean-square errors from 0.05 kW - 5.83 kW, and meanabsolute scaled errors from 0.20 to 1.33. The results indicate that both artificial neural networks yield goodresults for compressors using variable speed drive (average R 2 = 0.8 and no naïve forecasting), only the longshort-term memory model gives acceptable results for compressors using on/off control (average R 2 = 0.82 and no naïve forecasting), and no satisfactory results are obtained for load/unload type air compressors (models constituting active forecasting).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Method of Finite Averages: A rigorous upscaling methodology for heterogeneous porous media

Rigorous upscaling techniques offer accurate and computationally-efficient strategies for modeling the average behaviors of multi-physical, multiscale phenomena in geological porous media. However, such techniques often rely on a variety of methodological assumptions that prohibit their rigorous application to practical systems (e.g., systems involving heterogeneous porous media, system-scale boundary conditions, and fine-scale dynamics that are not diffusion-dominant). In this work, we aim to formulate an upscaling methodology with few methodological assumptions to provide high levels of model generality and foster the utilization of rigorously-derived upscaled models in practice. In particular, we introduce the Method of Finite Averages (MoFA), a novel upscaling methodology for rigorously modeling heterogeneous porous media and system-scale boundary conditions. We then detail MoFA’s implementation for the advective–diffusive transport of a single species and compare the methodology with classic numerical techniques, as well as other rigorous upscaling techniques, to highlight MoFA’s unique combination of rigor and generality. We then validate the derived model while demonstrating its benefits in three numerical experiments. The results suggest that (1.) the applicability and a priori error guarantees of MoFA models do not directly depend on system geometry, (2.) a model’s applicability and error guarantees can be can arbitrarily expanded and reduced, respectively, with further computational expense, and (3.) downscaling with MoFA provides an efficient strategy for generating accurate pore-scale solutions from upscaled results. Ultimately, the results evidence that upscaled models can be rigorously derived for heterogeneous porous media systems and resolved in a fraction of the time it takes to perform the equivalent pore-scale simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A sharp interface Lagrangian-Eulerian method for rigid-body fluid-structure interaction

Herein this paper introduces a sharp interface method to simulate fluid-structure interaction (FSI) involving rigid bodies immersed in viscous incompressible fluids. The capabilities of this methodology are benchmarked using a range of test cases and demonstrated using large-scale models of biomedical FSI. The numerical approach developed herein, which we refer to as an immersed Lagrangian-Eulerian (ILE) method, integrates aspects of partitioned and immersed FSI formulations by solving separate momentum equations for the fluid and solid subdomains, as in a partitioned formulation, while also using non-conforming discretizations of the dynamic fluid and structure regions, as in an immersed formulation. A simple Dirichlet-Neumann coupling scheme is used, in which the motion of the immersed solid is driven by fluid traction forces evaluated along the fluid-structure interface, and the motion of the fluid along that interface is constrained to match the solid velocity and thereby satisfy the no-slip condition. To develop a practical numerical method, we adopt a penalty approach that approximately imposes the no-slip condition along the fluid-structure interface. In the coupling strategy, a separate discretization of the fluid-structure interface is tethered to the volumetric solid mesh via stiff spring-like penalty forces. Our fluid-structure coupling scheme relies on an immersed interface method (IIM) for discrete geometries, which enables the accurate determination of both velocities and stresses along complex internal interfaces. Numerical methods for FSI can suffer from instabilities related to the added mass effect, but computational tests indicate that the methodology introduced here remains stable for selected test cases across a broad range of solid-fluid mass density ratios, including extremely small, nearly equal, equal, and large density ratios. Biomedical FSI demonstration cases include results obtained using this method to simulate the dynamics of a bileaflet mechanical heart valve in a pulse duplicator, and to model transport of blood clots in a patient-averaged anatomical model of the inferior vena cava.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transformer Health Monitoring Using Dissolved Gas Analysis

As integral components of any power plant, transformers supply the generated electricity to the grid. However, a transformer’s cellulose-based paper insulation and the mineral oil in which it is immersed break down over time under standard operating conditions—or more rapidly due to potential faults within the system. As the transformer’s mineral oil breaks down, gases are released that can be measured and monitored. This technical brief exhibits a collection of diagnostic and prognostic techniques that utilities can adopt in lieu of labor-intensive periodic preventive maintenance routines. Furthermore, prognostic models have been incorporated using the latest version of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) standard (IEEE, 2019) for dissolved gas analysis (DGA), thus expanding it to include estimation of the time to maintenance. Overall, four different methodologies are explained, each of which aids in determining a transformer’s state of health. These methodologies include the Chendong model, the IEEE thermal life consumption model (IEEE, 2012), a diagnostic model for DGA, and a prognostic model for DGA that uses an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. An additional improvement for estimating missing system parameters by using monitoring data (i.e., a tool for parameter estimation utilizing Powell’s method) is presented, enabling the IEEE thermal life consumption model to benefit not only the collaborating power plant, but also the power industry at large.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗