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Bio-Optical and Geochemical Properties of the South Atlantic Subtropical Gyre

An investigation of the bio-optical properties of the South Atlantic subtropical gyre (SASG) was conducted using data primarily from the UK Atlantic Meridional Transect (AMT) program and SeaWiFS. The AMT cruises extend from the UK to the Falklands Islands (sailing on the RRS James Clark Ross) with the purpose of improving our knowledge of surface layer hydrography, biogeochemical processes, ecosystem dynamics and food webs across basin scales in the Atlantic Ocean. Two objectives of the AMT program relevant to this study are the characterization of biogeochemical provinces and the analysis of optical and pigment parameters in connection with remote sensing ocean color data. The primary focus of this NASA Technical Memorandum is on the variability of the vertical distribution of phytoplankton pigments and associated absorption properties across the SASG, and their relevance to remote sensing algorithms. Therefore, a subset of the AMT data within the SASG from all available cruises was used in the analyses. One of the challenges addressed here is the determination of the SASG geographic boundaries. One of the major problems is to reconcile the properties of biogeochemical provinces. We use water mass analysis, dynamics of ocean currents, and meridional gradients of bio-optical properties, to identify the SASG boundaries.

Signorini, S. R.↗

Convective lofting links Indian Ocean air pollution to paradoxical South Atlantic ozone maxima

We describe a broad resolution of the Atlantic Parado concerning the seasonal and geographic distribution, of tropical tropospheric ozone. We highlight periods of significant maximum tropospheric O3 for Jan.- April, 1999, exploiting satellite estimates and SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes). Trajectory analyses connecting sondes and Total Tropospheric Ozone (TTO) maps suggest a complex influence from the Indian Ocean: beginning with mixed combustion sources, then low level transport, cumulonimbus venting, possible stratospheric input, and finally high-level transport to the west, with possible mixing over Africa. For the Jan.-March highest column-O3 periods in the Atlantic, distinct sounding peaks trace to specific NO sources, especially lightning, while in the same episodes, recurring every 20-50 days, more diffuse buildups of Indian-to-Atlantic pollution make important contributions.

Chatfield, R. B.↗

Statistical Aspects of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones: Trends, Natural Variability, and Global Warming

Statistical aspects of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945- 2005 are examined, including the variation of the yearly frequency of occurrence for various subgroups of storms (all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, major hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes, and category 4/5 hurricanes); the yearly variation of the mean latitude and longitude (genesis location) of all tropical cyclones and hurricanes; and the yearly variation of the mean peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and durations for all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Also examined is the relationship between inferred trends found in the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity and natural variability and global warming, the latter described using surface air temperatures from the Armagh Observatory Armagh, Northern Ireland. Lastly, a simple statistical technique is employed to ascertain the expected level of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity for the upcoming 2007 season.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Shifting Surface Currents in the Northern North Atlantic Ocean

Analysis of surface drifter tracks in the North Atlantic Ocean from the time period 1990 to 2006 provides the first evidence that the Gulf Stream waters can have direct pathways to the Nordic Seas. Prior to 2000, the drifters entering the channels leading to the Nordic Seas originated in the western and central subpolar region. Since 2001 several paths from the western subtropics have been present in the drifter tracks leading to the Rockall Trough through which the most saline North Atlantic Waters pass to the Nordic Seas. Eddy kinetic energy from altimetry shows also the increased energy along the same paths as the drifters, These near surface changes have taken effect while the altimetry shows a continual weakening of the subpolar gyre. These findings highlight the changes in the vertical structure of the northern North Atlantic Ocean, its dynamics and exchanges with the higher latitudes, and show how pathways of the thermohaline circulation can open up and maintain or increase its intensity even as the basin-wide circulation spins down.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗

Reevaluating the Role of Saharan Air Layer in Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis and Evolution

The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air that frequently moves westward off of the Saharan desert of Africa and over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. As air moves over the desert, it is strongly heated from below, producing a very hot air mass at low levels. Because there is no moisture source over the Sahara, the rise in temperature causes a sharp drop in relative humidity, thus drying the air. In addition, the warm air produces a very strong jet of easterly flow in the middle troposphere called the African easterly jet that is thought to play a critical role in hurricane formation. In recent years, there has been an increased focus on the impact that the SAL has on the formation and evolution of hurricanes in the Atlantic. However, the nature of its impact remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The argument for positively influencing hurricane development is based upon the fact that the African easterly jet provides an energy source for the waves that eventually form hurricanes and that it leads to rising motion south of the jet that favors the development of deep thunderstorm clouds. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) low-level vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm SAL air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability and suppresses cloud development; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts in precipitating regions, thereby removing energy needed for storm development. As part of this recent focus on the SAL and hurricanes (which motivated a 2006 NASA field experiment), there has been little emphasis on the SAL s potential positive influences and almost complete emphasis on its possible negative influences, almost to the point of claims that the SAL is the major suppressing influence on hurricanes in the Atlantic. In this study, multiple NASA satellite data sets (TRMM, MODIS, CALIPSO, and AIRS/AMSU) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction global analyses are used to see if the proposed negative influences deserve all of the attention they have recently received. The results show that storms generally form on the southern side of the African jet, where favorable background rotation is high. The jet often helps to form the northern side of the storms and is typically stronger in storms that intensify than those that weaken, suggesting that jet-induced vertical wind shear is not a negative influence on developing storms. Warm SAL air is confined to regions north of the jet and generally does not impact the tropical cyclone precipitation south of the jet. A comparison of the environments of strongly strengthening storms and of weakening storms shows no differences in SAL structure, indicating that the SAL has little influence on whether storms weaken or intensify. The large-scale flow at upper levels above the SAL was found to be most important, with the environment of strengthening storms having very little vertical wind shear and also favoring more expansive outflow from the storm. The SAL is shown to occur in a large-scale environment that is already characteristically dry as a result of large-scale subsidence (sinking air motions). Strong surface heating and deep dry convective mixing enhance dryness at low levels, but moisten the air at midlevels. Therefore, mid-to-upper-level dryness is not a defining characteristic of the SAL, but is instead a signature of subsidence. As a result, we conclude that the SAL is not the major negative influence on hurricanes that recent studies have emphasized. It is just one of many possible influences and can be both positive and negative.

Braun, Scott A.↗

Detection of Natural Oil Seeps in the Atlantic Ocean Using MODIS

Natural oil seepage is the release of crude oil into the ocean from fissures in the seabed. Oil seepage is a major contributor to the total amount of oil entering the world s oceans. According to a 2003 study by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), 47 percent of oil entering the world s oceans is from natural seeps, and 53 percent is from human sources (extraction, transportation, and consumption). Oil seeps cause smooth oil slicks to form on the water s surface. Oil seeps can indicate the location of stores of fossil fuel beneath the ocean floor. Knowledge of the effect of oil seepage on marine life and marine ecosystems remains limited. In the past, remote sensing has been used to detect oil seeps in the Gulf of Mexico and off of the coast of southern California. This project utilized sun glint MODIS imagery to locate oil slicks off of the Atlantic coast, an area that had not previously been surveyed for natural oil seeps using remote sensing. Since 1982, the Atlantic Ocean has been closed to any oil and gas drilling. Recently, however, the U.S. Minerals Management Services (MMS) has proposed a lease for oil and gas drilling off the coasts of Virginia and North Carolina. Determining the location of seepage sites in the Atlantic Ocean will help MMS locate potential deposits of oil and natural gas, thereby reducing the risk of leasing areas for petroleum extraction that do not contain these natural resources.

Reahard, Ross↗

Atmospheric Blocking and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Ocean Variability

Atmospheric blocking over the northern North Atlantic involves isolation of large regions of air from the westerly circulation for 5-14 days or more. From a recent 20th century atmospheric reanalysis (1,2) winters with more frequent blocking persist over several decades and correspond to a warm North Atlantic Ocean, in-phase with Atlantic multi-decadal ocean variability (AMV). Ocean circulation is forced by wind-stress curl and related air/sea heat exchange, and we find that their space-time structure is associated with dominant blocking patterns: weaker ocean gyres and weaker heat exchange contribute to the warm phase of AMV. Increased blocking activity extending from Greenland to British Isles is evident when winter blocking days of the cold years (1900-1929) are subtracted from those of the warm years (1939-1968).

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗

Modulation of Atlantic Aerosols by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Much like the better-known EI Nino-Southern Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a global-scale atmospheric phenomenon. The MJO involves periodic, systematic changes in the distribution of clouds and precipitation over the western Pacific and Indian oceans, along with differences in wind intensity over even more extensive areas, including the north and subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The lead authors of this paper developed a sophisticated mathematical technique for mapping the spatial and temporal behavior of changes in the atmosphere produced by the MJO. In a previous paper, we applied this technique to search for modulation of airborne particle amount in the eastern hemisphere associated with the "wet" (cloudy) vs. "dry" phases of the MJO. The study used primarily AVHRR, MODIS, and TOMS satellite-retrieved aerosol amount, but concluded that other factors, such as cloud contamination of the satellite signals, probably dominated the observed variations. The current paper looks at MJO modulation of desert dust transport eastward across the Atlantic from northern Africa, a region much less subject to systematic cloud contamination than the eastern hemisphere areas studied previously. In this case, a distinct aerosol signal appears, showing that dust is transported westward much more effectively during the MJO phase that favors westward-flowing wind, and such transport is suppressed when the MJO reduces these winds. Aside form the significant achievement in identifying such an effect, the result implies that an important component of global dust transport can be predicted based on the phase of the MJO. As a consequence, the impact of airborne dust on storm development in the Atlantic, and on dust deposition downwind of the desert sources, can also be predicted and more accurately modeled.

Tian, B.↗

Interannual to Decadal Variability of Atlantic Water in the Nordic and Adjacent Seas

Warm salty Atlantic Water is the main source water for the Arctic Ocean and thus plays an important role in the mass and heat budget of the Arctic. This study explores interannual to decadal variability of Atlantic Water properties in the Nordic Seas area where Atlantic Water enters the Arctic, based on a reexamination of the historical hydrographic record for the years 1950-2009, obtained by combining multiple data sets. The analysis shows a succession of four multi-year warm events where temperature anomalies at 100m depth exceed 0.4oC, and three cold events. Three of the four warm events lasted 3-4 years, while the fourth began in 1999 and persists at least through 2009. This most recent warm event is anomalous in other ways as well, being the strongest, having the broadest geographic extent, being surface-intensified, and occurring under exceptional meteorological conditions. Three of the four warm events were accompanied by elevated salinities consistent with enhanced ocean transport into the Nordic Seas, with the exception of the event spanning July 1989-July 1993. Of the three cold events, two lasted for four years, while the third lasted for nearly 14 years. Two of the three cold events are associated with reduced salinities, but the cold event of the 1960s had elevated salinities. The relationship of these events to meteorological conditions is examined. The results show that local surface heat flux variations act in some cases to reinforce the anomalies, but are too weak to be the sole cause.

Carton, James A.↗

The Sensitivity of African Easterly Waves to Eastern Tropical Atlantic Sea-Surface Temperatures

The results of two regional atmospheric model simulations are compared to assess the influence of the eastern tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature maximum on local precipitation, transient easterly waves and the West African summer monsoon. Both model simulations were initialized with reanalysis 2 data (US National Center for Environmental Prediction and Department of Energy) on 15 May 2006 and extended through 6 October 2006, forced by synchronous reanalysis 2 lateral boundary conditions introduced four times daily. One simulation uses 2006 reanalysis 2 sea-surface temperatures, also updated four times daily, while the second simulation considers ocean forcing absent the sea-surface temperature maximum, achieved here by subtracting 3 K at every ocean grid point between 0 and 15 N during the entire simulation. The simulation with 2006 sea-surface temperature forcing produces a realistic distribution of June-September mean precipitation and realistic westward propagating swaths of maximum rainfall, based on validation against Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates. The simulation without the sea-surface temperature maximum produces only 57% of the control June-September total precipitation over the eastern tropical Atlantic and about 83% of the Sahel precipitation. The simulation with warmer ocean temperatures generates generally stronger circulation, which in turn enhances precipitation by increasing moisture convergence. Some local precipitation enhancement is also attributed to lower vertical thermal stability above the warm water. The study shows that the eastern tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature maximum enhances the strength of transient easterly waves and broadens the spatial extent of associated precipitation. However, large-scale circulation and its interaction with the African continent, and not sea-surface temperatures, control the timing and trajectories of the waves.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

Northern North Atlantic Sea Surface Height and Ocean Heat Content Variability

The evolution of nearly 20 years of altimetric sea surface height (SSH) is investigated to understand its association with decadal to multidecadal variability of the North Atlantic heat content. Altimetric SSH is dominated by an increase of about 14 cm in the Labrador and Irminger seas from 1993 to 2011, while the opposite has occurred over the Gulf Stream region over the same time period. During the altimeter period the observed 0-700 m ocean heat content (OHC) in the subpolar gyre mirrors the increased SSH by its dominantly positive trend. Over a longer period, 1955-2011, fluctuations in the subpolar OHC reflect Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and can be attributed to advection driven by the wind stress ''gyre mode'' bringing more subtropical waters into the subpolar gyre. The extended subpolar warming evident in SSH and OHC during the altimeter period represents transition of the AMV from cold to warm phase. In addition to the dominant trend, the first empirical orthogonal function SSH time series shows an abrupt change 2009-2010 reaching a new minimum in 2010. The change coincides with the change in the meridional overturning circulation at 26.5N as observed by the RAPID (Rapid Climate Change) project, and with extreme behavior of the wind stress gyre mode and of atmospheric blocking. While the general relationship between northern warming and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) volume transport remains undetermined, the meridional heat and salt transport carried by AMOC's arteries are rich with decade-to-century timescale variability.

Sea-surface↗

How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?

The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions in the TC activities during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Nino and stronger activity during La Nina. For CP El Nino, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Nino. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of vertical wind shear in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Nino, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.

Tropical Cyclones↗

Statistical Aspects of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2013

This Technical Publication (TP) is part 2 of a two-part study of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that occurred during the weather satellite era, 1960-2013. In particular, this TP examines the inferred statistical relationships between 25 tropical cyclone parameters and 9 specific climate-related factors, including the (1) Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), (2) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), (3) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, (4) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) index, (5) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), (6) NAO index of the Climate Research Unit (CRU), (7) Armagh surface air temperature (ASAT), (8) Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI), and (9) Mauna Loa carbon dioxide (CO2) (MLCO2) index. Part 1 of this two-part study examined the statistical aspects of the 25 tropical cyclone parameters (e.g., frequencies, peak wind speed (PWS), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), etc.) and provided the results of statistical testing (i.e., runs-testing, the t-statistic for independent samples, and Poisson distributions). Also, the study gave predictions for the frequencies of the number of tropical cyclones (NTC), number of hurricanes (NH), number of major hurricanes (NMH), and number of United States land-falling hurricanes (NUSLFH) expected for the 2014 season, based on the statistics of the overall interval 1960-2013, the subinterval 1995-2013, and whether the year 2014 would be either an El Niño year (ENY) or a non-El Niño year (NENY).

Wilson, Robert M.↗

North Atlantic Simulations in Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiments Phase II (CORE-II). Part I: Mean States

Simulation characteristics from eighteen global ocean-sea-ice coupled models are presented with a focus on the mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and other related fields in the North Atlantic. These experiments use inter-annually varying atmospheric forcing data sets for the 60-year period from 1948 to 2007 and are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Oceanice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The protocol for conducting such CORE-II experiments is summarized. Despite using the same atmospheric forcing, the solutions show significant differences. As most models also differ from available observations, biases in the Labrador Sea region in upper-ocean potential temperature and salinity distributions, mixed layer depths, and sea-ice cover are identified as contributors to differences in AMOC. These differences in the solutions do not suggest an obvious grouping of the models based on their ocean model lineage, their vertical coordinate representations, or surface salinity restoring strengths. Thus, the solution differences among the models are attributed primarily to use of different subgrid scale parameterizations and parameter choices as well as to differences in vertical and horizontal grid resolutions in the ocean models. Use of a wide variety of sea-ice models with diverse snow and sea-ice albedo treatments also contributes to these differences. Based on the diagnostics considered, the majority of the models appear suitable for use in studies involving the North Atlantic, but some models require dedicated development effort. atmospheric forcing atmospheric temperatures

ocean model comparisons↗

Can Aerosol Direct Radiative Effects Account for Analysis Increments of Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic?

In the late 1990's, prior to the launch of the Terra satellite, atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) did not include aerosol processes because aerosols were not properly monitored on a global scale and their spatial distributions were not known well enough for their incorporation in operational GCMs. At the time of the first GEOS Reanalysis (Schubert et al. 1993), long time series of analysis increments (the corrections to the atmospheric state by all available meteorological observations) became readily available, enabling detailed analysis of the GEOS-1 errors on a global scale. Such analysis revealed that temperature biases were particularly pronounced in the Tropical Atlantic region, with patterns depicting a remarkable similarity to dust plumes emanating from the African continent as evidenced by TOMS aerosol index maps. Yoram Kaufman was instrumental encouraging us to pursue this issue further, resulting in the study reported in Alpert et al. (1998) where we attempted to assess aerosol forcing by studying the errors of a the GEOS-1 GCM without aerosol physics within a data assimilation system. Based on this analysis, Alpert et al. (1998) put forward that dust aerosols are an important source of inaccuracies in numerical weather-prediction models in the Tropical Atlantic region, although a direct verification of this hypothesis was not possible back then. Nearly 20 years later, numerical prediction models have increased in resolution and complexity of physical parameterizations, including the representation of aerosols and their interactions with the circulation. Moreover, with the advent of NASA's EOS program and subsequent satellites, atmospheric aerosols are now monitored globally on a routine basis, and their assimilation in global models are becoming well established. In this talk we will reexamine the Alpert et al. (1998) hypothesis using the most recent version of the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System with assimilation of aerosols. We will explicitly calculate the impact of aerosols on the temperature analysis increments in the tropical Atlantic and assess the extent to which inclusion of atmospheric aerosols have reduced these increments.

General Circulation Models↗

Inter-Relationship Between Subtropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature, Arctic Sea Ice Concentration, and the North Atlantic Oscillation in Recent Summers and Winters

The inter-relationship between subtropical western-central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are investigated for the last 37 summers and winters (1980-2016). Lag-correlation of the STWCPSST×(-1) in spring with the NAO phase and SICBS in summer increases over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.4-0.5 with significance at 5 percent, while winter has strong correlations in approximately 1985-2005. Observational analysis and the atmospheric general circulation model experiments both suggest that STWCPSST warming acts to increase the Arctic geopotential height and temperature in the following season. This atmospheric response extends to Greenland, providing favorable conditions for developing the negative phase of the NAO. SIC and surface albedo tend to decrease over the Beaufort Sea in summer, linked to the positive surface net shortwave flux. Energy balance considering radiative and turbulent fluxes reveal that available energy that can heat surface is larger over the Arctic and Greenland and smaller over the south of Greenland, in response to the STWCPSST warming in spring. XXXX Arctic & Atlantic: Positive upper-level height/T anomaly over the Arctic and Greenland, and a negative anomaly over the central-eastern Atlantic, resembling the (-) phase of the NAO. Pacific: The negative height/T anomaly over the mid-latitudes, along with the positive anomaly over the STWCP, where 1degC warming above climatology is prescribed. Discussion: It is likely that the Arctic gets warm and the NAO is in the negative phase in response to the STWCP warming. But, there are other factors (e.g., internal variability) that contribute to determination of the NAO phase: not always the negative phase of the NAO in the event of STWCP warming (e.g.: recent winters and near neutral NAO in 2017 summer).

Lim, Young-Kwon↗

Three-Dimensional Trajectory Design for Reducing Climate Impact of Trans-Atlantic Flights

The impact of aircraft emissions and contrails on the environment adds an additional aspect to aircraft trajectory optimization. This study developed a three-dimensional trajectory optimization algorithm for trans-Atlantic flights in cruise to generate aircraft trajectories that minimize environmental impacts due to CO2 emissions and contrails in the presence of winds. The climate-optimal trajectory is developed using dynamic programming that adjusts a wind-optimal aircraft heading while determining the optimal locations, altitudes and times for en-route step climbs. Flying wind-optimal routes minimize aircraft travel time, fuel burn and associated emissions during cruise while adjusting aircraft heading and en-route step climbs at the optimal locations and times minimize climate impact of contrails. This capability integrates an air traffic management simulation with aircraft fuel burn and emissions models, contrail formation and dispersion models, simplified climate response models, and a common climate metric. A study was conducted to evaluate the potential cost and benefits of flying climate-optimal routes in North Atlantic Airspace and their impacts to the Organized Track System design based on the trans-Atlantic air traffic during a day, July 12, 2012. Results show eastbound flights achieved a larger environmental benefit with less additional fuel burn than westbound flights that operated in strong headwinds that caused more additional fuel burn and aircraft emissions to avoid traversing contrails favorable regions.

climate impact of aviation↗

The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were ~0.96 C above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about ~0.42 C from a long-term upward trend and the rest (~80%) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005/2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005/2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC may be key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.

SST↗