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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Coherent Multidecadal Atmospheric and Oceanic Variability in the North Atlantic: Blocking Corresponds with Warm Subpolar Ocean

Winters with frequent atmospheric blocking, in a band of latitudes from Greenland to Western Europe, are found to persist over several decades and correspond to a warm North Atlantic Ocean. This is evident in atmospheric reanalysis data, both modern and for the full 20th century. Blocking is approximately in phase with Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability (AMV). Wintertime atmospheric blocking involves a highly distorted jetstream, isolating large regions of air from the westerly circulation. It influences the ocean through windstress-curl and associated air/sea heat flux. While blocking is a relatively high-frequency phenomenon, it is strongly modulated over decadal timescales. The blocked regime (weaker ocean gyres, weaker air-sea heat flux, paradoxically increased transport of warm subtropical waters poleward) contributes to the warm phase of AMV. Atmospheric blocking better describes the early 20thC warming and 1996-2010 warm period than does the NAO index. It has roots in the hemispheric circulation and jet stream dynamics. Subpolar Atlantic variability covaries with distant AMOC fields: both these connections may express the global influence of the subpolar North Atlantic ocean on the global climate system.

Hakkinen, Sirpa M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Sulfate Aerosol Control of Tropical Atlantic Climate over the Twentieth Century

The tropical Atlantic interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperature significantly influences the rainfall climate of the tropical Atlantic sector, including droughts over West Africa and Northeast Brazil. This gradient exhibits a secular trend from the beginning of the twentieth century until the 1980s, with stronger warming in the south relative to the north. This trend behavior is on top of a multi-decadal variation associated with the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. A similar long-term forced trend is found in a multimodel ensemble of forced twentieth-century climate simulations. Through examining the distribution of the trend slopes in the multimodel twentieth-century and preindustrial models, the authors conclude that the observed trend in the gradient is unlikely to arise purely from natural variations; this study suggests that at least half the observed trend is a forced response to twentieth-century climate forcings. Further analysis using twentieth-century single-forcing runs indicates that sulfate aerosol forcing is the predominant cause of the multimodel trend. The authors conclude that anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions, originating predominantly from the Northern Hemisphere, may have significantly altered the tropical Atlantic rainfall climate over the twentieth century

Chang, C.-Y.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Statistical Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin, 1945-2010

Examined are statistical aspects of the 715 tropical cyclones that formed in the North Atlantic basin during the interval 1945-2010. These 715 tropical cyclones include 306 storms that attained only tropical storm strength, 409 hurricanes, 179 major or intense hurricanes, and 108 storms that struck the US coastline as hurricanes. Comparisons made using 10-year moving average (10-yma) values between tropical cyclone parametric values and surface air and ENSO-related parametric values indicate strong correlations to exist, in particular, against the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) surface air temperature, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index, the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) index, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, in addition to the Oceanic Ni o index (ONI) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) indices. Also examined are the decadal variations of the tropical cyclone parametric values and a look ahead towards the 2012 hurricane season and beyond.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Warm and Saline Events Embedded in the Meridional Circulation of the Northern North Atlantic

Ocean state estimates from 1958 to 2005 from the Simple Ocean Assimilation System (SODA) system are analyzed to understand circulation between subtropical and subpolar Atlantic and their connection with atmospheric forcing. This analysis shows three periods (1960s, around 1980, and 2000s) with enhanced warm, saline waters reaching high latitudes, alternating with freshwater events originating at high latitudes. It complements surface drifter and altimetry data showing the subtropical -subpolar exchange leading to a significant temperature and salinity increase in the northeast Atlantic after 2001. The warm water limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning cell represented by SODA expanded in density/salinity space during these warm events. Tracer simulations using SODA velocities also show decadal variation of the Gulf Stream waters reaching the subpolar gyre and Nordic seas. The negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation index, usually invoked in such variability, fails to predict the warming and salinization in the early 2000s, with salinities not seen since the 1960s. Wind stress curl variability provided a linkage to this subtropical/subpolar gyre exchange as illustrated using an idealized two ]layer circulation model. The ocean response to the modulation of the climatological wind stress curl pattern was found to be such that the northward penetration of subtropical tracers is enhanced when amplitude of the wind stress curl is weaker than normal. In this case both the subtropical and subpolar gyres weaken and the subpolar density surfaces relax; hence, the polar front moves westward, opening an enhanced northward access of the subtropical waters in the eastern boundary current.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗
NASA NTRS2012

Tropical Atlantic Dust and Smoke Aerosol Variabilities Related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation in MODIS and MISR Observations

In this study, MODIS fine mode fraction and MISR non-spherical fraction are 2used to derive dust and smoke AOT components (tau(sub dust) and tau(sub smoke)) over the tropical Atlantic, and their variabilities related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are then investigated. Both MODIS and MISR show a very similar dust and smoke winter climatology. tau(sub dust) is found to be the dominant aerosol component over the tropical Atlantic while tau(sub smoke) is significantly smaller than tau(sub dust). The daily MODIS and MISR tau(sub dust) are overall highly correlated, with the correlation coefficients typically about 0.7 over the North Atlantic. The consistency between the MODIS and MISR dust and smoke aerosol climatology and daily variations give us confidence to use these two data sets to investigate their relative contributions to the total AOT variation associated with the MJO. However, unlike the MISR dust discrimination, which is based on particle shape retrievals, the smoke discrimination is less certain, based on assumed partitioning of maritime aerosol for both MISR and MODIS. The temporal evolution and spatial patterns of the tau(sub dust) anomalies associated with the MJO are consistent between MODIS and MISR. The tau(sub dust) anomalies are very similar to those of tau anomalies, and are of comparable magnitude. In contrast, the MJO-related tau(sub smoke) anomalies are rather small, and the tau(sub mar) anomalies are negligible. The consistency between the MODIS and MISR results suggests that dust aerosol is the dominant component on the intra-seasonal time scale over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Guo, Yanjuan↗
NASA NTRS2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2014

This Technical Publication (TP) represents an extension of previous work concerning the tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin during the weather satellite era, 1960-2014, in particular, that of an article published in The Journal of the Alabama Academy of Science. With the launch of the TIROS-1 polar-orbiting satellite in April 1960, a new era of global weather observation and monitoring began. Prior to this, the conditions of the North Atlantic basin were determined only from ship reports, island reports, and long-range aircraft reconnaissance. Consequently, storms that formed far from land, away from shipping lanes, and beyond the reach of aircraft possibly could be missed altogether, thereby leading to an underestimate of the true number of tropical cyclones forming in the basin. Additionally, new analysis techniques have come into use which sometimes has led to the inclusion of one or more storms at the end of a nominal hurricane season that otherwise would not have been included. In this TP, examined are the yearly (or seasonal) and 10-year moving average (10-year moving average) values of the (1) first storm day (FSD), last storm day (LSD), and length of season (LOS); (2) frequencies of tropical cyclones (by class); (3) average peak 1-minute sustained wind speed ( ) and average lowest pressure ( ); (4) average genesis location in terms of north latitudinal ( ) and west longitudinal ( ) positions; (5) sum and average power dissipation index ( ); (6) sum and average accumulated cyclone energy ( ); (7) sum and average number of storm days ( ); (8) sum of the number of hurricane days (NHD) and number of major hurricane days (NMHD); (9) net tropical cyclone activity index (NTCA); (10) largest individual storm (LIS) PWS, LP, PDI, ACE, NSD, NHD, NMHD; and (11) number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes (N4/5). Also examined are the December-May (D-M) and June-November (J-N) averages and 10-year moving average values of several climatic factors, including the (1) oceanic Nino index ( ); (2) Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation ( ) index; (3) Atlantic meridional mode ( ) index; (4) global land-ocean temperature index ( ); and (5) quasi-biennial oscillation ( ) index. Lastly, the associational aspects (using both linear and nonparametric statistical tests) between selected tropical cyclone parameters and the climatic factors are examined based on their 10-year moving average trend values.

satellite↗
NASA NTRS2017

Observations of Aerosol-Radiation-Cloud Interactions in the South-East Atlantic: First Results from the ORACLES Deployments in 2016 and 2017

Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earths biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles. Particles lofted into the mid-troposphere are transported westward over the South-East (SE) Atlantic, home to one of the three permanent subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The SE Atlantic stratocumulus deck interacts with the dense layers of BB aerosols that initially overlay the cloud deck, but later subside and often mix into the clouds. These interactions include adjustments to aerosol-induced solar heating and microphysical effects, and their global representation in climate models remains one of the largest uncertainties in estimates of future climate. Hence, new observations over the SE Atlantic have significant implications for regional and global climate change predictions.The low-level clouds in the SE Atlantic have limited vertical extent and therefore present favorable conditions for their exploration with remote sensing. On the other hand, the normal coexistence of BB aerosols and Sc clouds in the same scene also presents significant challenges to conventional remote sensing techniques. We describe first results from NASAs airborne ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols Above Clouds and Their IntEractionS) deployments in September 2016 and August 2017. We emphasize the unique role of polarimetric observations by two instruments, the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) and the Airborne Multi-angle SpectroPolarimeter Imager (AirMSPI), and describe how these instruments help address specific ORACLES science objectives. Initial assessments of polarimetric observation accuracy for key cloud and aerosol properties will be presented, in as far as the preliminary nature of measurements permits.

Redemann, Jens↗
NASA NTRS2014

Benefits Analysis of Wind-Optimal Operations For Trans-Atlantic Flights

North Atlantic Tracks are trans-Atlantic routes across the busiest oceanic airspace in the world. This study analyzes and compares current flight-plan routes to wind-optimal routes for trans-Atlantic flights in terms of aircraft fuel burn, emissions and the associated climate impact. The historical flight track data recorded by EUROCONTROL's Central Flow Management Unit is merged with data from FAA's Enhanced Traffic Management System to provide an accurate flight movement database containing the highest available flight path resolution in both systems. The combined database is adopted for airspace simulation integrated with aircraft fuel burn and emissions models, contrail models, simplified climate response models, and a common climate metric to assess the climate impact of flight routes within the Organized Track System (OTS). The fuel burn and emissions for the tracks in the OTS are compared with the corresponding quantities for the wind-optimized routes to evaluate the potential environmental benefits of flying wind-optimal routes in North Atlantic Airspace. The potential fuel savings and reduction in emissions depend on existing inefficiencies in current flight plans, atmospheric conditions and location of the city-pairs. The potential benefits are scaled by comparing them with actual flight tests that have been conducted since 2010 between a few city-pairs in the transatlantic and trans-pacific region to improve fuel consumption and reduce the environmental impact of aviation.

air traffic optimization↗
NASA NTRS2019

How Well Does NASA GEOS Model Perform in Simulating Dust Deposition into the Tropical Atlantic Ocean?

Massive dust emitted from North Africa can transport long distances across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, reaching the Americas. Dust deposition along the transit adds microorganisms and essential nutrients to marine ecosystem, which has important implications for biogeochemical cycle and climate. However, assessing the dust-ecosystemclimate interactions has been hindered in part by the paucity of dust deposition measurements and large uncertainties associated with oversimplified representations of dust processes in current models. We have recently produced a unique dataset of seasonal dust deposition flux and dust loss frequency into the tropical Atlantic Ocean at a nominal resolution of 200 km x 500 km by using the decade-long (2007-2016) record of aerosol three-dimensional distribution from four satellite sensors, namely CALIOP, MODIS, MISR, and IASI. On the basis of the ten-year average, the yearly dust deposition into the tropical Atlantic Ocean is estimated at 98-153 Tg. The dust deposition shows large spatial and temporal (on seasonal and interannual scale) variability. The satellite observations also yield an estimate of annual mean dust loss frequency of 0.052 ~ 0.078 d-1, a useful diagnostic that makes it possible to disentangle the dust transport and removal processes from the dust emissions when identifying the major factors contributing to the uncertainties and biases in the model simulated dust deposition. In this study, we use the dataset along with in situ and remote sensing observations to assess how well NASA GEOS model performs in simulating trans-Atlantic dust transport and deposition. We found that the GEOS modeling of dust deposition falls within the range of satellite-based estimates. However, this reasonable agreement in dust deposition is a compensation of the model's underestimate of dust emissions and overestimate of dust removal efficiency. Further, the overestimate of dust removal efficiency results largely from the model's overestimate of rainfall rate. Our results provide insights into the model's deficiencies at process level, which could better guide model improvements.

Yu, Hongbin↗
NASA NTRS2020

Radiative Heating Rate Profiles over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean during the 2016 and 2017 Biomass Burning Seasons

Marine boundary layer clouds, including the transition from stratocumulus to cumulus, are poorly represented in numerical weather prediction and general circulation models. Further uncertainties in the cloud structure arise in the presence of biomass burning carbonaceous aerosol, as is the case over the southeast Atlantic Ocean where biomass burning aerosol is transported from the African continent. As the aerosol plume progresses across the southeast Atlantic Ocean, radiative heating within the aerosol layer has the potential to alter the thermodynamic environment and therefore the cloud structure; however, limited work has been done to quantify this along the trajectory of the aerosol plume in the region. The deployment of the First Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility in support of the Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds field campaign provided a unique opportunity to collect observations of cloud and aerosol properties during two consecutive biomass burning seasons during July through October of 2016 and 2017 over Ascension Island (7.96 °S, 14.35 °W). Using observed profiles of temperature, humidity, and clouds from the field campaign, alongside aerosol optical properties from MERRA-2 as input for the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model, profiles of the radiative heating rate due to aerosols and clouds were computed. Radiative heating is also assessed across the southeast Atlantic Ocean using an ensemble of back trajectories from the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model. Idealized experiments using the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model with and without aerosols and a range of values for the single scattering albedo demonstrate that shortwave heating within the aerosol layer above Ascension Island can locally range between 2 and 8 K per day depending on the aerosol optical properties, though impacts of the aerosol can be felt elsewhere in the atmospheric column. When considered under clear conditions, the aerosol has a cooling effect at the TOA and based on the observed cloud properties at Ascension Island, the cloud albedo is not large enough to overcome this. Shortwave radiative heating due to biomass burning aerosol is not balanced by additional longwave cooling, and the net radiative impact results in a stabilization of the lower troposphere. However, these results are extremely sensitive to the single scattering albedo assumptions in models.

Allison B. Marquardt Collow↗
NASA NTRS2019

Industrial-Era Decline in Subarctic Atlantic Productivity

Marine phytoplankton play a critical role in modulating marine-based food webs, fishery yields, and the global drawdown of atmospheric CO2. Due to sparse measurements prior to 21st century satellite monitoring, however, little is known of the long-term response of planktonic stocks to climate forcing. Here we produce the first continuous, multi-century record of subarctic Atlantic marine productivity, showing a marked 10 ± 7% decline has occurred across this highly-productive ocean basin over the last two centuries. We support this conclusion through the application of a novel marine-productivity proxy, established using a unique signal of planktonic-derived aerosol commonly identified across an array of Greenlandic ice cores. Utilizing contemporaneous satellite-era observations, we demonstrate this signal’s use as a robust and high-resolution proxy for spatially-integrated marine productivity variations. We show that the initiation of declining subarctic Atlantic productivity broadly coincides with the onset of Arctic surface warming, and that productivity strongly covaries with regional sea-surface temperatures and basin-wide gyre circulation strength over recent decades. Taken together, our results suggest the industrial era productivity decline may be evidence of the predicted5 collapse of northern Atlantic planktonic stocks in response to a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Continued AMOC weakening, as projected for the 21st century, may therefore result in further productivity declines across this globally-relevant region.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identification of Climatological Representative Days in the Mid-Atlantic for High-Fidelity Offshore Wind Energy Modeling

The goal of reaching 30 GW of offshore wind energy by 2030 becomes more realistic with the continued approval of offshore wind energy areas by the Biden Administration. In the Mid-Atlantic, where wind energy projects are in the most advanced stages of development, there is increased research focus on the eventual interaction of these wind farms. These interactions, in the form of wakes and cluster wakes, or wakes from multiple wind farms, could have detrimental effects on power production and forecastability for downwind wind farms (Pryor et al. 2022, Golbazi et al. 2022, Rosencrans et al. 2023). To help alleviate these issues, numerical simulations in the form of numerical weather prediction (NWP) and large eddy simulations (LES) can provide insight into when cluster wake situations may occur, but running such simulations can be expensive and difficult to run for multiple years. In this study, we leverage and build upon existing techniques in the literature (Fischereit et al. 2022) to identify climatologically representative days for wind energy areas in the Mid-Atlantic where conditions would promote cluster wake situations. We select meteorological variables (wind speed, wind direction, atmospheric stability, boundary-layer height, TKE) critical to understanding wind energy production and wake propagation. We then consider two different NWP datasets of varying spatial and temporal resolution: ERA5 provides data at hourly intervals from 1940 to present at 0.25 deg (31 km) spatial resolution (Hersbach et al. 2020), and the NOW-23 dataset provides data at 5-minute resolution for 21 years at 2-km spatial resolution (Bodini et al. 2020). Our first step is to compare these two datasets for an overlapping 21-year time period. Initial results show that the required number of days to represent the long-term climate increases with each additional variable considered. In their study of the German Bight, Fischereit et al. (2022) found that they could represent the long-term wind and wave climate in a "near-perfect" way with -180 days, by reaching a Perkins Skill Score (PSS) of 0.9; our investigation of the mid-Atlantic wind resource region with ERA5 and NOW-23 data suggests that we will need -100 days to reach a PSS of 0.9. As we expand our parameter space to include multiple variables, the number of required days will likely grow. These results will ultimately be used to select case studies to best represent cluster wake conditions that apply to this region for the lifetime of likely wind farms in this mid-Atlantic region.

clusterwakes↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the link between aerosol mixing state, structure and composition and their optical properties: Ascension Island as a testbed for the South‐East Atlantic aerosol regimes

Forest and savanna fires are a major source of pollution over the globe. Such fire events emit to the atmosphere a considerable amount of “fluffy” fractal black looking particles that are often referred to as black carbon (BC) or soot aerosols. In fact, BC particles (aerosols) emitted from savanna and agricultural fires over the African continent play an important role in the region’s and the global climate. These fires occur each year between July and October, which is referred to as the biomass burning (BB) season and are considered among the globe's largest man-made emission sources of BC particles. However, during these fire events, not only BC particles are emitted, but also other types of particles and gases that can interact with each other to create new particles, generating a slew of particles often generally referred to as BB aerosols. Although the majority of the fire emissions occur inland in the sub-Saharan part of Africa, their effect reaches far beyond the continent due to the prevailing easterly winds, which transport those aerosols over the South-East Atlantic (SEA) ocean, off the west-coast of Africa. The reason why these particles are so important to the regional and global climate is that they absorb sunlight radiation, which overall warms the climate. However, the magnitude of this warming effect is highly uncertain and depends upon a multitude of aspects. Our overarching goal for this project was to better understand the changes in the aerosol properties as they transport from fire sources downstream toward the ocean and how this can eventually affect the earth's radiative budget in terms of warming or cooling. Following the above, our work here was focused on the investigation of the African BB aerosol plumes mixing state (mixing of BB aerosols and other aerosol types), composition and size distribution as they transport from the African continent towards the SEA ocean, and their link with some of the commonly measurable bulk optical properties such as mass absorption coefficient (MAC) and single scattering albedo (SSA). We utilized three field missions that were conducted over the SEA ocean between 2016 and 2018. Specifically, we used (1) ground-based measurements from the DOE ARM Mobile Facility (AMF1), which was deployed at Ascension Island (ASI) for the LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds) campaign between June 2016 and October 2017, (2) airborne measurements from the UK CLARIFY (Clouds and Aerosol Radiative impacts and Forcing) campaign during Aug-Sep-2017, and (3) airborne measurements from the ORACLES (Observations of Aerosols above Clouds and their interactions) campaign during Aug-2017, and Sep-Oct-2018. The three campaigns cover a relatively large region, from the western African coast on the east towards Ascension Island in the middle of the SEA to the west. We used the data gathered by these campaigns to find how BB properties and composition change from near emission sources (the ORACLES campaign flights) downstream (the CLARIFY flights and the ground based LASIC measurements). We used particle trajectory following methodologies to connect the measurements from the different campaigns, which allowed us to follow a certain aerosol plume (airmass) from near-source towards Ascension Island. We found out that atmospheric aging processes governed by the UV light from the sun (photochemistry) and cloud processes (aqueous chemistry) govern the changes seen in the particle composition during the transport were more dominant in dictating aerosol composition than specific emission composition or source types. We assessed how aerosol optical properties change during the BB season and what are the main drivers of this change. We found that the enhanced ratio of BC to CO is well correlated with single scattering albedo (SSA) and mass absorption coefficient (MACBC), providing a simple way to estimate the aerosol optical characteristics in the south-eastern Atlantic Ocean. From the analysis of the location of BB, the primary source fuel, the water content in the fuel, combined with the mean cloud cover and precipitation in the transport areas of the BB plume, we conclude that the increase in BC/CO from June to August is likely to be caused by burning becoming more flaming (hot fires), and the decrease in BC/CO in September and October may be caused by smoldering (colder) fires. We found that aerosol hygroscopicity increases with decreasing altitude below 2km, and that enhanced BB hygroscopicity at lower altitudes is mainly due to a lower organic aerosol (OA) fraction, increased sulfate fraction, and greater hygroscopicity parameter of OA at lower altitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predictability of Seawater DMS During the North Atlantic Aerosol and Marine Ecosystem Study (NAAMES)

This work presents an overview of a unique set of surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) measurements from four shipboard field campaigns conducted during the North Atlantic Aerosol and Marine Ecosystem Study (NAAMES) project. Variations in surface seawater DMS are discussed in relation to biological and physical observations. Results are considered at a range of timescales (seasons to days) and spatial scales (regional to sub-mesoscale). Elevated DMS concentrations are generally associated with greater biological productivity, although chlorophyll a (Chl) only explains a small fraction of the DMS variability (15%). Physical factors that determine the location of oceanic temperature fronts and depth of vertical mixing have an important influence on seawater DMS concentrations during all seasons. The interplay of biomass and physics influences DMS concentrations at regional/seasonal scales and at smaller spatial and shorter temporal scales. Seawater DMS measurements are compared with the global seawater DMS climatology and predictions made using a recently published algorithm and by a neural network model. The climatology is successful at capturing the seasonal progression in average seawater DMS, but does not reproduce the shorter spatial/temporal scale variability. The input terms common to the algorithm and neural network approaches are biological (Chl) and physical (mixed layer depth, photosynthetically active radiation, seawater temperature). Both models predict the seasonal North Atlantic average seawater DMS trends better than the climatology. However, DMS concentrations tend to be under-predicted and the episodic occurrence of higher DMS concentrations is poorly predicted. The choice of climatological seawater DMS product makes a substantial impact on the estimated DMS flux into the North Atlantic atmosphere. These results suggest that additional input terms are needed to improve the predictive capability of current state-of-the-art approaches to estimating seawater DMS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Defining Infrastructure Feasibility for Hub-Scale Offshore Atlantic Carbon Storage in the Northeastern United States

In the Northeast U.S., deep rock formations along the Atlantic outer continental shelf may have the potential to sequester 150–1136 million metric tons of CO2. However, the design and infrastructure necessary to develop offshore carbon storage in this region is not well defined because there has been little oil and gas exploration and no commercial production. Consequently, an infrastructure feasibility design was completed for a hub-scale offshore CO2 storage system along the Northeast U.S. Atlantic. The design included development of a detailed, site-specific geological model for a location near the Great Stone Dome geological structure in the Baltimore Canyon Trough off the coast of Delaware, Maryland, and New Jersey. A field injection system topology design was completed to portray a design with eight wells in two clusters connected by central manifolds. Reservoir simulations were completed for the injection system that showed the hub may be able to inject 17 million metric tons (MMT) of CO2 per year for thirty years, but injection rates varied substantially across the eight wells. A CO2 pipeline design determined feasible routes from the east coast shoreline to the injection field. Finally, the CO2 injection system design included subsea injection trees, manifolds, and power umbilicals. This is the first study to define large-scale carbon storage design and infrastructure options for the offshore Atlantic, which can help to progress this region towards field characterization and early-mover deployment for future decarbonization in the region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2013

Model Sensitivity to North Atlantic Freshwater Forcing at 8.2 Ka

We compared four simulations of the 8.2 ka event to assess climate model sensitivity and skill in responding to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations. All of the simulations used the same freshwater forcing, 2.5 Sv for one year, applied to either the Hudson Bay (northeastern Canada) or Labrador Sea (between Canada's Labrador coast and Greenland). This freshwater pulse induced a decadal-mean slowdown of 10-25%in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of the models and caused a large-scale pattern of climate anomalies that matched proxy evidence for cooling in the Northern Hemisphere and a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The multi-model ensemble generated temperature anomalies that were just half as large as those from quantitative proxy reconstructions, however. Also, the duration of AMOC and climate anomalies in three of the simulations was only several decades, significantly shorter than the duration of approx.150 yr in the paleoclimate record. Possible reasons for these discrepancies include incorrect representation of the early Holocene climate and ocean state in the North Atlantic and uncertainties in the freshwater forcing estimates.

simulation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Coupled Stratospheric Ozone and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Feedbacks on the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitude Jet Response to 4xCO(2)

Stratospheric ozone, and its response to anthropogenic forcings, provide an important pathway for the coupling between atmospheric composition and climate. In addition to stratospheric ozone’s radiative impacts, recent studies have shown that changes in the ozone layer due to 4xCO2 have a considerable impact on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) tropospheric circulation inducing an equatorward shift of the North Atlantic jet during boreal winter. Here we show that this equatorward jet shift can induce a more rapid weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), resulting in a poleward shift of the midlatitude eddy-driven jet on longer timescales. As such, coupled feedbacks from both stratospheric ozone and the AMOC result in a two-timescale response of the NH midlatitude jet to abrupt 4xCO2 forcing: a “fast” response (5-20 years) during which it shifts equatorward and a “total” response (∼100-150 years) during which the jet shifts poleward. The latter is driven by a weakening of the AMOC that develops in response to weaker surface zonal winds, that result in reduced heat fluxes out of the subpolar gyre and reduced North Atlantic Deep Water formation. Our results suggest that stratospheric ozone changes in the lower stratosphere can have a surprisingly powerful effect on the AMOC, independent of other aspects of climate change.

Climate models↗
NASA NTRS2023

Overview and Statistical Analysis of Boundary Layer Clouds and Precipitation Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean

Due to their fast evolution and large natural variability in macro- and microphysical properties, the accurate representation of boundary layer clouds in current climate models remains a challenge. One of the regions with large intermodel spread in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 ensemble is the western North Atlantic Ocean. Here, statistically representative in situ measurements can help to develop and constrain the parameterization of clouds in global models. To this end, we performed comprehensive measurements of boundary layer clouds, aerosol, trace gases, and radiation in the western North Atlantic Ocean during the NASA Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) mission. In total, 174 research flights with 574 flight hours for cloud and precipitation measurements were performed with the HU-25 Falcon during three winter (February–March 2020, January–April 2021, and November 2021–March 2022) and three summer seasons (August–September 2020, May–June 2021, and May–June 2022). Here we present a statistical evaluation of 16 140 individual cloud events probed by the fast cloud droplet probe and the two-dimensional stereo cloud probe during 155 research flights in a representative and repetitive flight strategy allowing for robust statistical data analyses. We show that the vertical profiles of distributions of the liquid water content and the cloud droplet effective diameter (ED) increase with altitude in the marine boundary layer. Due to higher updraft speeds, higher cloud droplet number concentrations (N liquid ) were measured in winter compared to summer despite lower cloud condensation nucleus abundance. Flight cloud cover derived from statistical analysis of in situ data is reduced in summer and shows large variability. This seasonal contrast in cloud coverage is consistent with a dominance of a synoptic pattern in winter that favors conditions for the formation of stratiform clouds at the western edge of cyclones (post-cyclonic). In contrast, a dominant summer anticyclone is concomitant with the occurrence of shallow cumulus clouds and lower cloud coverage. The evaluation of boundary layer clouds and precipitation in the N liquid ED phase space sheds light on liquid, mixed-phase, and ice cloud properties and helps to categorize the cloud data. Ice and liquid precipitation, often masked in cloud statistics by a high abundance of liquid clouds, is often observed throughout the cloud. The ACTIVATE in situ cloud measurements provide a wealth of cloud information useful for assessing airborne and satellite remote-sensing products, for global climate and weather model evaluations, and for dedicated process studies that address precipitation and aerosol–cloud interactions.

Aerosol↗