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DOE OSTI2017

Cyber Deterrence and Stability

Throughout the 20th and early 21st centuries, deterrence and arms control have been cornerstones of strategic stability between the superpowers. However, the weaponization of the cyber realm by State actors and the multipolar nature of cyber conflict now undermines that stability. Strategic stability is the state in which nations believe that if they act aggressively to undermine U.S. national interests and the post-World War II liberal democratic order, the consequences will outweigh the benefits. The sense of lawlessness and lack of consequences in the cyber realm embolden States to be more aggressive in taking actions that undermine stability. Accordingly, this paper examines 1) the role of deterrence and arms control in securing cyber stability, and 2) the limitations and challenges associated with these traditional national security paradigms as applied to this emerging threat domain. This paper demonstrates that many 20th-century deterrence and arms control concepts are not particularly applicable in the cyber realm. However, they are not entirely irrelevant. The United States can distill lessons learned from this rich deterrence and arms control experience to develop and deploy a strategy to advance cyber stability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1988

The WCSAR telerobotics test bed

Component technologies for use in telerobotic systems for space are being developed. As part of this effort, a test bed was established in which these technologies can be verified and integrated into telerobotic systems. The facility consists of two slave industrial robots, an articulated master arm controller, a cartesian coordinate master arm controller, and a variety of sensors, displays and stimulators for feedback to human operators. The controller of one of the slave robots remains in its commercial state, while the controller of the other robot has been replaced with a new controller that achieves high-performance in telerobotic operating modes. A dexterous slave hand which consists of two fingers and a thumb is being developed, along with a number of force-reflecting and non-force reflecting master hands, wrists and arms. A tactile sensing finger tip based on piezo-film technology has been developed, along with tactile stimulators and CAD-based displays for sensory feedback and sensory substitution. The telerobotics test bed and its component technologies are described, as well as the integration of these component technologies into telerobotic systems, and their performance in conjunction with human operators.

Duffie, N.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Delayed Gamma-ray Assay for Nuclear Materials Safeguards. Comprehensive Technology Readiness Assessment

Spectroscopic analysis of beta-delayed gamma-rays emitted from fission products following active interrogation was investigated as a non-destructive assay technique for detection and characterization of nuclear materials in shielded and complex configurations. This measurement technique is expected to be applicable to a variety of applications within the nuclear material safeguards, arms control, and emergency response areas, where active neutron interrogation is acceptable. Potential applications of the delayed gamma-ray assay in the nuclear material safeguards area include characterization of U and Pu isotopic content in spent and unirradiated nuclear fuel, enrichment measurements, verification of bulk material in containers, and the characterization of nuclear wastes. In the arms control area, this method can be used as a part of warhead dismantlement measurements to confirm separation of components, and may be applicable in warhead confirmation. In the context of emergency response, it can be used for detailed diagnostics of an unknown item. At present, the delayed gamma-ray assay technology reliably qualifies for the Technical Readiness Level 3 (TRL 3). The R&D work completed under this project has successfully demonstrated the empirical proof-of-concept for this active interrogation technology for a variety of measurement configurations, neutron sources, and nuclear material samples. A robust first-principles analytical signature modeling methodology was developed, experimentally validated, and can be easily extrapolated to a range of realistic measurement scenarios. Several response analysis methodologies have been implemented and deemed reliable for a variety of active interrogation applications in the areas of nuclear material safeguards, arms control, and emergency response. The initial readiness level before the start of this project was assessed at TRL 0, since only fragmentary records of the signature observations and speculative statements of the relevant non-destructive assay applications existed at that time. The delayed gamma-ray technology readiness can be easily advanced to TRL 4 in a short period, if a certain measurement application is specified and set for a demonstration in a laboratory environment. The critical hardware components of the delayed gamma-ray measurement technology (neutron generators, gamma-ray spectrometers) are readily available as COTS and can be configured for a specific deployment configuration. The primary risk of the delayed gamma-ray assay methodology is defined by the applicationspecific uncertainties. Evaluation of the system performance can be effectively completed once the expected measurement purpose, nuclear material characteristics, dimensions, and radiation exposure constraints are specified. A minor risk can be associated with the delayed gamma-ray response analysis techniques. Several approaches were proposed and demonstrated primarily using the modeled signatures. The observed performance may not be easily transferrable to the conditions of a real measurement setup, and some additional R&D may be required. Overall, the delayed gamma-ray assay technology can be recommended for follow-up demonstrations addressing relevant measurement applications in the areas of nuclear material safeguards, arms control, and emergency response.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Supporting Technology for Chain of Custody of Nuclear Weapons and Materials throughout the Dismantlement and Disposition Processes

The ratification and ongoing implementation of the New START Treaty have been widely regarded as noteworthy global security achievements for both the Obama Administration and the Putin (formerly Medvedev) regime. But deeper cuts that move beyond the United States and Russia to engage the P-5 and other nuclear weapons possessor states are envisioned under future arms control regimes, and are indeed required for the P-5 in accordance with their Article VI disarmament obligations in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Future verification needs will include monitoring the cessation of production of new fissile material for weapons, monitoring storage of warhead components and fissile materials and verifying dismantlement of warheads, pits, secondary stages, and other materials. A fundamental challenge to implementing a nuclear disarmament regime is the ability to thwart unauthorized material diversion throughout the dismantlement and disposition process through strong chain of custody implementation. Verifying the declared presence, or absence, of nuclear materials and weapons components throughout the dismantlement and disposition lifecycle is a critical aspect of the disarmament process. From both the diplomatic and technical perspectives, verification under these future arms control regimes will require new solutions. Since any acceptable verification technology must protect sensitive design information and attributes to prevent the release of classified or other proliferation-sensitive information, non-nuclear non-sensitive modalities may provide significant new verification tools which do not require the use of additional information barriers. Alternative verification technologies based upon electromagnetic and acoustics could potentially play an important role in fulfilling the challenging requirements of future verification regimes. For example, researchers at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) have demonstrated that low frequency electromagnetic signatures of sealed metallic containers can be used to rapidly confirm the presence of specific components on a yes/no basis without revealing classified information. PNNL researchers have also used ultrasonic measurements to obtain images of material microstructures which may be used as templates or unique identifiers of treaty-limited items. Such alternative technologies are suitable for application in various stages of weapons dismantlement and often include the advantage of an inherent information barrier due to the inability to extract classified weapon design information from the collected data. As a result, these types of technologies complement radiation-based verification methods for arms control. This article presents an overview of several alternative verification technologies that are suitable for supporting a future, broader and more intrusive arms control regime that spans the nuclear weapons disarmament lifecycle. The general capabilities and limitations of each verification modality are discussed and example technologies are presented. Potential applications are defined in the context of the nuclear material and weapons lifecycle. Example applications range from authentication (e.g., tracking and signatures within the chain of custody from downloading through weapons storage, unclassified templates and unique identification) to verification of absence and final material disposition.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

NASA NTRS1986

Rigid/Compliant Helicopter Rotor

Rotor structure ensures both effective aerodynamic support and efficient pitch changes. Four blades are shells with rigid inner I-beam arms integrated with rotor hub. Through each blade, control arm extends from pitch-control actuator in hub. Elastomeric bearings allow control arms to twist blades and thus change blade pitch without turning I-beam arms. Centrifugal force carried by tension strap. Leading and lagging movements of blades restrained by dampers. Ducts inside leading and trailing edges of blade shells carry air for partial cyclic aerodynamic control of lift and pitch. Structure permits more efficient pitch control with less weight. At same time, improves reliability through redundancy in supports and control mechanisms.

Jeffery, P.↗

DOE OSTI2019

A Technical and Policy Toolkit for Cyber Deterrence and Stability

In the post-World War II era, nuclear deterrence and arms control established a strategic equilibrium between the superpowers that has come under increasing threat as cyber conflict becomes more prevalent. This study seeks to assist policymakers and scholars build a theoretical, policy, and technical framework to address cyber conflict. Based on an analysis of deterrence theory and application and prior arms control regimes, the study presents a toolkit of policies and actions for national governments based on elements of deterrence and arms control that is applicable to cyber conflict. The study illustrates how these could be prospectively applied in a treaty framework to facilitate attribution of hostile cyber actions.

Cyber Deterrence, Cyber Stability, Cyber Conflict,↗

NASA NTRS1985

Dual arm master controller development

The advanced servomanipulator (ASM) slave was designed with an anthropomorphic stance gear/torque tube power drives, and modular construction. These features resulted in increased inertia, friction, and backlash relative to tape driven manipulators. Studies were performed which addressed to human factor design and performance tradeoffs associated with the corresponding master controller best suited for the ASM. The results of these studies, as well as the conceptual design of the dual arm master controller, are presented.

Kuban, D. P.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Report on a Zero-Knowledge Protocol Tabletop Exercise

This report summarizes the discussion and conclusions reached during a table top exercise held at Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque on September 3, 2014 regarding a recently described approach for nuclear warhead verification based on the cryptographic concept of a zero-knowledge protocol (ZKP) presented in a recent paper authored by Glaser, Barak, and Goldston. A panel of Sandia National Laboratories researchers, whose expertise includes radiation instrumentation design and development, cryptography, and arms control verification implementation, jointly reviewed the paper and identified specific challenges to implementing the approach as well as some opportunities. It was noted that ZKP as used in cryptography is a useful model for the arms control verification problem, but the direct analogy to arms control breaks down quickly. The ZKP methodology for warhead verification fits within the general class of template-based verification techniques, where a reference measurement is used to confirm that a given object is like another object that has already been accepted as a warhead by some other means. This can be a powerful verification approach, but requires independent means to trust the authenticity of the reference warhead - a standard that may be difficult to achieve, which the ZKP authors do not directly address. Despite some technical challenges, the concept of last-minute selection of the pre-loads and equipment could be a valuable component of a verification regime.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2020

Overview of the U.S.-U.K. Portal Monitor for Authentication and Certification (PMAC) Project [Slides]

The PM designed and demonstrated under the PMAC project is a significant improvement from other existing PMs in terms of the joint host / inspector confidence provided and usability in a future hypothetical arms control regime. Based on these results, the PMAC system would be the best option currently available for a boundary control use case in a hypothetical arms control regime.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2020

Verifying Deep Reductions in the Nuclear Arsenals: Development and Demonstration of a Motion-detection Subsystem for a “Buddy Tag” Using Non-export Controlled Accelerometers

Future nuclear arms-control agreements may place numerical limits on items that are difficult to monitor with national technical means, even when complemented with onsite inspections. Such items could include small objects and mobile assets, such as non-deployed nuclear warheads and mobile missile launchers. Typically, this verification task can be addressed with unique identifiers, but standard tagging techniques may be unacceptable in this case due to host concerns about safety and intrusiveness. First proposed in the late 1980s and partially developed by Sandia National Laboratories in the early 1990s, the “Proximity Tag” or “Buddy Tag” concept seeks to overcome these concerns by separating the tag from the treaty accountable item itself. A buddy tag has two key elements: a tamper-indicating enclosure and a motion-detection system designed to detect illicit movements in a stand-down period. As part of this project, we have built a buddy-tag prototype for demonstration and evaluation purposes. This paper reviews the design choices and functionalities of the tag’s motion-detection subsystem.We pursue a modular approach for the tag’s hardware, built around an Arduino-class microcontroller and a non-export-controlled low-noise accelerometer, and use open-source algorithms for the motion-detection software. Finally, we discuss the results of an extensive experimental campaign involving both indoor and outdoor measurements assessing the performance of the tag under real-world environmental conditions.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

NASA NTRS1966

Hydraulically controlled flexible arm can bend in any direction

Arm assembly consisting of four flexible tubes controlled by a four-way hydraulic or pneumatic valve can bend in any direction. The flexible arm could be used for probing areas that cannot be reached by ordinary tools, handling hazardous materials, and for graph recording.

Griffin, F. D.↗

DOE OSTI2014

Evaluating the Effects of Aluminum-Containing and Non-Aluminum Containing Deodorants on Axillary Skin Toxicity During Radiation Therapy for Breast Cancer: A 3-Armed Randomized Controlled Trial

Purpose: Deodorant use during radiation therapy for breast cancer has been controversial as there are concerns deodorant use may exacerbate axillary skin toxicity. The present study prospectively determined the use of both aluminum-containing and non aluminum containing deodorants on axillary skin toxicity during conventionally fractionated postoperative radiation therapy for breast cancer. Methods and Materials: This 3-arm randomized controlled study was conducted at a single center, tertiary cancer hospital between March 2011 and April 2013. Participants were randomized to 1 of 2 experimental groups (aluminum-containing deodorant and soap or non–aluminum containing deodorant and soap) or a control group (soap). A total of 333 participants were randomized. Generalized estimating equations were used to estimate and compare the odds of experiencing high levels of sweating and skin toxicity in each of the deodorant groups to the odds in the control group. The study evaluated a range of endpoints including objective measurements of axilla sweating, skin toxicity, pain, itch and burning. Quality of life was assessed with a validated questionnaire. Results: Radiation characteristics were similar across all groups. Patients in the deodorant groups did not report significantly different ratings for axillary pain, itch, or burning compared with the control group. Patients in the aluminum-containing deodorant group experienced significantly less sweating than the control; the odds of their sweating being barely tolerable and frequently or always interfering with their daily activities was decreased by 85% (odds ratio, 0.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.03-0.91). Conclusions: We found no evidence that the use of either aluminum-containing or non–aluminum containing deodorant adversely effects axillary skin reaction during conventionally fractionated radiation therapy for breast cancer. Our analysis also suggests patients in the aluminum-containing deodorant arm had significantly less sweating without increased symptoms of axillary radiation skin toxicity. These results add to the evidence that the prescription of deodorants during radiation therapy for breast cancer is now questionable.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Technical Cooperation on Verification and its role in Trust Building [Slides]

Technical cooperation is a low-cost way to initiate movement in the arms control sphere and offers an operational path forward for the reestablishment of working relationships built on trust not freely given, but gained through experience, and a shared vision of the future; Political will alone, though necessary for cooperation to take place, is insufficient in the face of structural obstacles. For effective cooperation to have a future, countries must have both political will and complementary and conducive institutional structures; Cooperation at the intergovernmental level seems unlikely at this time. However, if relationships with international partners continue to be strained as development of new offensive technologies continues, it is very possible that future movement in technical arms control cooperation could again be initiated in the nongovernmental sphere; As the stewards of the majority of the world’s nuclear stockpile, the United States and the Russian Federation have a unique role to play in shaping global norms on arms control verification and cooperation; it is in their mutual interest now to begin to find technical solutions to the question of verification as other countries ramp up production.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

NASA NTRS1984

The structures and the role of an international agency for the control of satellites

Legal questions involved in the liability of a proposed agency which would control internationally owned satellites for monitoring worldwide compliance with arms control agreements are discussed. Difficulties in acquiring the signed consent of all the relevant nations, and guaranteeing satisfactory compliance with the terms of such an agreement are noted. Additional problems to be solved comprise the construction of the ground based facilities and the satellites, the funding for the venture, and the reconciliation of the functions of the proposed agency with the sovereignty of individual states. The agency would gather, treat, and format data for signatories of arms control agreements and provide technical assistance in crisis conditions. It is concluded that the existence and functioning of the agency would reduce the amount of classified information and would consequently reduce the level of international tensions.

Dupuy, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Adaptive Strategies for Controls of Flexible Arms

An adaptive controller for a modern manipulator has been designed based on asymptotical stability via the Lyapunov criterion with the output error between the system and a reference model used as the actuating control signal. Computer simulations were carried out to test the design. The combination of the adaptive controller and a system vibration and mode shape estimator show that the flexible arm should move along a pre-defined trajectory with high-speed motion and fast vibration setting time. An existing computer-controlled prototype two link manipulator, RALF (Robotic Arm, Large Flexible), with a parallel mechanism driven by hydraulic actuators was used to verify the mathematical analysis. The experimental results illustrate that assumed modes found from finite element techniques can be used to derive the equations of motion with acceptable accuracy. The robust adaptive (modal) control is implemented to compensate for unmodelled modes and nonlinearities and is compared with the joint feedback control in additional experiments. Preliminary results show promise for the experimental control algorithm.

Yuan, Bau-San↗

NASA NTRS1989

A general dynamic model of flexible robot arms for control

Hamilton's principle is used to derive the dynamic model for a large class of flexible robot arms. The resultant dynamic model consists of a system of partial differential-integral equations and the dynamic boundary conditions associated with it. Some properties of the model are observed, and its application to control is discussed. This model represents an infinite-dimensional nonlinear dynamic system and yet can be turned into a finite-dimensional system that could be obtained by modal expansion, if it is desired. This provides more flexibility for control purposes as well as for the analysis of the system.

Ding, X.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Computer hardware and software for robotic control

The KSC has implemented an integrated system that coordinates state-of-the-art robotic subsystems. It is a sensor based real-time robotic control system performing operations beyond the capability of an off-the-shelf robot. The integrated system provides real-time closed loop adaptive path control of position and orientation of all six axes of a large robot; enables the implementation of a highly configurable, expandable testbed for sensor system development; and makes several smart distributed control subsystems (robot arm controller, process controller, graphics display, and vision tracking) appear as intelligent peripherals to a supervisory computer coordinating the overall systems.

Davis, Virgil Leon↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Role of Satellite Earth Observation Data in Monitoring and Verifying International Environmental Treaties

The term verification implies compliance verification in the language of treaty negotiation and implementation, particularly in the fields of disarmament and arms control. The term monitoring on the other hand, in both environmental and arms control treaties, has a much broader interpretation which allows for use of supporting data sources that are not necessarily acceptable or adequate for direct verification. There are many ways that satellite Earth observation (EO) data can support international environmental agreements, from national forest inventories to use in geographic information system (GIs) tools. Though only a few references to satellite EO data and their use exist in the treaties themselves, an expanding list of applications can be considered in support of multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs). This paper explores the current uses of satellite Earth observation data which support monitoring activities of major environmental treaties and draws conclusions about future missions and their data use. The scope of the study includes all phases of environmental treaty fulfillment - development, monitoring, and enforcement - and includes a multinational perspective on the use of satellite Earth observation data for treaty support.

Johnston, Shaida↗