Minimum variance technique for the analysis of ionospheric data acquired in satellite retarding potential analyzer experiments.
Minimum variance technique for analysis of ionospheric data acquired by satellite retarding potential analyzer
Hyman, E.↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Analysis of Variance”
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Use of Sobol’ Variance-Based Global Sensitivity Analysis and Multidimensional Legendre Polynomial Fitting for Reduced Order Modeling
Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has developed a novel reduced order modeling approach. Prioritization of inputs is accomplished using Sobo' indices obtained through a more efficient variance-based global sensitivity analysis. To determine the Sobo' functions, simulated input values are aligned to collocation points to permit the use of Gauss-Lobatto integration, thereby reducing the number of simulation trials needed by more than an order of magnitude compared to standard Monte Carlo approaches. Furthermore, by leveraging the orthogonality of Legendre polynomials in conjunction with those same simulations at the collocation nodes, an efficient fitting method is developed to represent the Sobo' functions from which a reduced order model (ROM) is constructed. The developed method is both more efficient computationally, and the resulting ROM is more accurate. The efficacy of this technique is demonstrated on a nonlinear polynomial test function as well as the nonlinear Ishigami and Sobo' g functions.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
A Computational Approach for Model Update of an LS-DYNA Energy Absorbing Cell
NASA and its contractors are working on structural concepts for absorbing impact energy of aerospace vehicles. Recently, concepts in the form of multi-cell honeycomb-like structures designed to crush under load have been investigated for both space and aeronautics applications. Efforts to understand these concepts are progressing from tests of individual cells to tests of systems with hundreds of cells. Because of fabrication irregularities, geometry irregularities, and material properties uncertainties, the problem of reconciling analytical models, in particular LS-DYNA models, with experimental data is a challenge. A first look at the correlation results between single cell load/deflection data with LS-DYNA predictions showed problems which prompted additional work in this area. This paper describes a computational approach that uses analysis of variance, deterministic sampling techniques, response surface modeling, and genetic optimization to reconcile test with analysis results. Analysis of variance provides a screening technique for selection of critical parameters used when reconciling test with analysis. In this study, complete ignorance of the parameter distribution is assumed and, therefore, the value of any parameter within the range that is computed using the optimization procedure is considered to be equally likely. Mean values from tests are matched against LS-DYNA solutions by minimizing the square error using a genetic optimization. The paper presents the computational methodology along with results obtained using this approach.
Horta, Lucas G.↗
Low-dimensional Representation of Error Covariance
Ensemble and reduced-rank approaches to prediction and assimilation rely on low-dimensional approximations of the estimation error covariances. Here stability properties of the forecast/analysis cycle for linear, time-independent systems are used to identify factors that cause the steady-state analysis error covariance to admit a low-dimensional representation. A useful measure of forecast/analysis cycle stability is the bound matrix, a function of the dynamics, observation operator and assimilation method. Upper and lower estimates for the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix eigenvalues are derived from the bound matrix. The estimates generalize to time-dependent systems. If much of the steady-state analysis error variance is due to a few dominant modes, the leading eigenvectors of the bound matrix approximate those of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix. The analytical results are illustrated in two numerical examples where the Kalman filter is carried to steady state. The first example uses the dynamics of a generalized advection equation exhibiting nonmodal transient growth. Failure to observe growing modes leads to increased steady-state analysis error variances. Leading eigenvectors of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix are well approximated by leading eigenvectors of the bound matrix. The second example uses the dynamics of a damped baroclinic wave model. The leading eigenvectors of a lowest-order approximation of the bound matrix are shown to approximate well the leading eigenvectors of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix.
Tippett, Michael K.↗
Experimental Analysis of the Effects of Simulator Complexity on Human Performance
Human Reliability Analysis predicts accidents caused by human errors and is an important factor in Probabilistic Safety Assessment that comprehensively evaluates the safety of nuclear power plants. This study compares and analyzes the human performance of nuclear power plant operators according to the simulator complexity as part of the HRA data collection support method development project conducted by Idaho National Laboratory. This experiment was conducted by setting two types of simulators and scenarios as independent variables. The data collected by conducting the experiments in two different simulators were analyzed using an analysis of variance test and a correlation analysis, and four human performance charts were derived.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Human Performance Analysis Depending on Operator Expertise (Student vs. Operator) and Simulator Complexity (Rancor Microworld vs. Compact Nuclear Simulator)
Human reliability analysis (HRA) evaluates human errors and provides human error probabilities (HEPs) for application in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), which is a comprehensive safety assessment method for nuclear power plants (NPPs). Generally, HRA methods estimate HEPs based on human reliability data collected from actual historical measurement, simulator experiments, or expert judgement. Most recent HRA data collection studies focus on collecting data via full-scope main control room (MCR) simulators with actual licensed reactor operators. Contrary to this, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has adopted a different approach, which attempts to collect HRA data based on experiment using simplified simulators and student participants by following the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). This approach has a couple of advantages compared to full-scope data collection. Representatively, it has relatively low entry point for collecting HRA data, and secures large sample sizes with reasonable cost and labor. In the previous studies, we developed the SHEEP framework, then verified whether the data collected through the framework could support a representative full-scope data collection study, i.e., the Human Reliability Data Extraction (HuREX) study. Also, we analyzed human performance measurements depending on participant type (i.e., student vs. operator). In this paper, we analyze human performance data collected from an experiment comparing operator expertise and simulator complexity when using the more simplified simulator developed by INL, i.e., Rancor Microworld and the less simplified simulator, i.e., Compact Nuclear Simulator (CNS) developed by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). Analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests and correlation analysis are used for analyzing the experimental data.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
WE-E-18A-10: Comparison of Patient Dose and Vessel Visibility Between Antiscatter Grid Removal and Lower Angiographic Radiation Dose Settings for Pediatric Imaging: A Preclinical Investigation
Purpose: To define an alternative to antiscatter grid (ASG) removal in angiographic systems which achieves similar patient dose reduction as ASG removal without degrading image quality during pediatric imaging. Methods: This study was approved by the local institution animal care and use committee (IACUC). Six different digital subtraction angiography settings were evaluated that altered the mAs, (100, 70, 50, 35, 25, 17.5% of reference mAs) with and without ASG. Three pigs of 5, 15, and 20 kg (9, 15, and 17 cm abdominal thickness; smaller than a newborn, average 3 yr old, and average 10 year old human abdomen respectively) were imaged using the six dose settings with and without ASG. Image quality was defined as the order of vessel branch that is visible relative to the injected vessel. Five interventional radiologists evaluated all images. Image quality and patient dose were statistically compared using analysis of variance and receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis to define the preferred dose level and use of ASG for a minimum visibility of 2nd or 3rd order branches of vessel visibility. Results: ASG grid removal reduces dose by 26% with reduced image quality. Only with the ASG present can 3rd order branches be visualized; 100% mAs is required for 9 cm pig while 70% mAs is adequate for the larger pigs. 2nd order branches can be visualized with ASG at 17.5% mAs for all three pig sizes. Without the ASG, 50%, 35% and 35% mAs is required for smallest to largest pig. Conclusion: Removing ASG reduces patient dose and image quality. Image quality can be improved with the ASG present while further reducing patient dose if an optimized radiographic technique is used. Rami Nachabe is an employee of Philips Health Care; Keith Strauss is a paid consultant of Philips Health Care.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
SU-F-J-180: A Reference Data Set for Testing Two Dimension Registration Algorithms
Purpose: To create and characterize a reference data set for testing image registration algorithms that transform portal image (PI) to digitally reconstructed radiograph (DRR). Methods: Anterior-posterior (AP) and Lateral (LAT) projection and DRR image pairs from nine cases representing four different anatomical sites (head and neck, thoracic, abdominal, and pelvis) were selected for this study. Five experts will perform manual registration by placing landmarks points (LMPs) on the DRR and finding their corresponding points on the PI using computer assisted manual point selection tool (CAMPST), a custom-made MATLAB software tool developed in house. The landmark selection process will be repeated on both the PI and the DRR in order to characterize inter- and -intra observer variations associated with the point selection process. Inter and an intra observer variation in LMPs was done using Bland-Altman (B&A) analysis and one-way analysis of variance. We set our limit such that the absolute value of the mean difference between the readings should not exceed 3mm. Later on in this project we will test different two dimension (2D) image registration algorithms and quantify the uncertainty associated with their registration. Results: Using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) there was no variations within the readers. When Bland-Altman analysis was used the variation within the readers was acceptable. The variation was higher in the PI compared to the DRR.ConclusionThe variation seen for the PI is because although the PI has a much better spatial resolution the poor resolution on the DRR makes it difficult to locate the actual corresponding anatomical feature on the PI. We hope this becomes more evident when all the readers complete the point selection. The reason for quantifying inter- and -intra observer variation tells us to what degree of accuracy a manual registration can be done. Research supported by William Beaumont Hospital Research Start Up Fund.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
On approaches to analyze the sensitivity of simulated hydrologic fluxes to model parameters in the community land model
Here, effective sensitivity analysis approaches are needed to identify important parameters or factors and their uncertainties in complex Earth system models composed of multi-phase multi-component phenomena and multiple biogeophysical-biogeochemical processes. In this study, the impacts of 10 hydrologic parameters in the Community Land Model on simulations of runoff and latent heat flux are evaluated using data from a watershed. Different metrics, including residual statistics, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, and log mean square error, are used as alternative measures of the deviations between the simulated and field observed values. Four sensitivity analysis (SA) approaches, including analysis of variance based on the generalized linear model, generalized cross validation based on the multivariate adaptive regression splines model, standardized regression coefficients based on a linear regression model, and analysis of variance based on support vector machine, are investigated. Results suggest that these approaches show consistent measurement of the impacts of major hydrologic parameters on response variables, but with differences in the relative contributions, particularly for the secondary parameters. The convergence behaviors of the SA with respect to the number of sampling points are also examined with different combinations of input parameter sets and output response variables and their alternative metrics. This study helps identify the optimal SA approach, provides guidance for the calibration of the Community Land Model parameters to improve the model simulations of land surface fluxes, and approximates the magnitudes to be adjusted in the parameter values during parametric model optimization.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Design of low surface roughness-low residual stress-high optoelectronic merit a-IZO thin films for flexible OLEDs
The development of efficient and reliable large-area flexible optoelectronic devices demands low surface roughness-low residual stress-high optoelectronic merit transparent conducting oxide (TCO) thin films. Here, we correlate surface roughness-residual stress-optoelectronic properties of sputtered amorphous indium zinc oxide (a-IZO) thin films using a statistical design of experiment (DOE) approach and find a common growth space to achieve a smooth surface in a stress-free and high optoelectronic merit a-IZO thin film. The sputtering power, growth pressure, oxygen partial pressure, and RF/(RF+DC) are varied in a two-level system with a full factorial design, and results are used to deconvolve the complex growth space, identifying significant control growth parameters and their possible interactions. The surface roughness of a-IZO thin film varies over 0.19 nm to 3.97 nm, which is not in line with the general assumption of low surface roughness in a-IZO thin films. The initial regression model and analysis of variance reveal no single optimum growth sub-space to achieve low surface roughness (≤0.5 nm), low residual stress (−1 to 0 GPa), and industrially acceptable electrical conductivity (>1000 S/cm) for a-IZO thin films. The extrapolation of growth parameters in light of the current results and previous knowledge leads to a new sub-space, resulting in a low residual stress of −0.52±0.04 GPa, a low surface roughness of 0.55±0.03 nm, and moderate electrical conductivity of 1962±3.84 S/cm in a-IZO thin films. These results demonstrate the utility of the DOE approach to multi-parameter optimization, which provides an important tool for the development of flexible TCOs for the next-generation flexible organic light emitting diodes applications.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Initial blood storage experiment
The design of the Initial Blood Storage Experiment (IBSE) was based upon a carefully controlled comparison between identical sets of human blood cell suspensions - red cells, white cell, and platelets - one set of which was transported aboard the Columbia on a 6 day 11 hour mission, and the other held on the ground. Both sets were carried inside stainless steel dewars within specially fabricated flight hardware. Individual bags of cell suspensions were randomly assigned with respect to ground vs orbit status, dewar chamber, and specific location within the dewar. To foster optimal preservation, each cell type was held under specific optimal conditions of pH, ionic strength, solute concentration, gas tension, and temperature. An added variable in this initial experiment was provided by the use of three different polymer/plasticizer formulations for the sealed bags which held the blood cells. At termination of the experiment, aliquots of the suspensions, identified only by code, were distributed to be assayed. Assays were selected to constitute a broad survey of cellular properties and thereby maximize the chances of detection of gravitational effects. A total of 74 different outcome measurements were reported for statistical analysis. When the measurements were completed, the results were entered into the IBSE data base, at which time the data were matched with the original blood bag numbers to determine their status with respect to polymer/plasticizer type, orbit status (orbit or ground), and storage position within the experimental hardware. The data were studied by analysis of variance. Initially, type of bag and orbital status were main factors; later more detailed analyses were made on specific issues such as position in the hardware and specific plastic. If the analysis of variance indicated a statistical significance at the 5 percent level the corresponding p-value was reported.
Surgenor, Douglas MACN.↗
Repeated-Measures Analysis of Image Data
It is suggested that using a modified analysis of variance procedure on data sampled systematically from a rectangular array of image data can provide a measure of homogeneity of means over that array in single directions and how variation in perpendicular directions interact. The modification of analysis of variance required to account for spatial correlation is described theoretically and numerically on simulated data.
Newton, H. J.↗
Display format, highlight validity, and highlight method: Their effects on search performance
Display format and highlight validity were shown to affect visual display search performance; however, these studies were conducted on small, artificial displays of alphanumeric stimuli. A study manipulating these variables was conducted using realistic, complex Space Shuttle information displays. A 2x2x3 within-subjects analysis of variance found that search times were faster for items in reformatted displays than for current displays. Responses to valid applications of highlight were significantly faster than responses to non or invalidly highlighted applications. The significant format by highlight validity interaction showed that there was little difference in response time to both current and reformatted displays when the highlight validity was applied; however, under the non or invalid highlight conditions, search times were faster with reformatted displays. A separate within-subject analysis of variance of display format, highlight validity, and several highlight methods did not reveal a main effect of highlight method. In addition, observed display search times were compared to search time predicted by Tullis' Display Analysis Program. Benefits of highlighting and reformatting displays to enhance search and the necessity to consider highlight validity and format characteristics in tandem for predicting search performance are discussed.
Donner, Kimberly A.↗
A surface layer variance heat budget for ENSO
Abstract Characteristics of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as frequency, propagation, spatial extent, and amplitude, strongly depend on the climatological background state of the tropical Pacific. Multidecadal changes in the ocean mean state are hence likely to modulate ENSO properties. To better link background state variations with low‐frequency amplitude changes of ENSO, we develop a diagnostic framework that determines locally the contributions of different physical feedback terms on the ocean surface temperature variance. Our analysis shows that multidecadal changes of ENSO variance originate from the delicate balance between the background‐state‐dependent positive thermocline feedback and the atmospheric damping of sea surface temperatures anomalies. The role of higher‐order processes and atmospheric and oceanic nonlinearities is also discussed. The diagnostic tool developed here can be easily applied to other tropical ocean areas and climate phenomena.
Boucharel, Julien↗
Impact of Damping Uncertainty on SEA Model Response Variance
Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) is commonly used to predict high-frequency vibroacoustic levels. This statistical approach provides the mean response over an ensemble of random subsystems that share the same gross system properties such as density, size, and damping. Recently, techniques have been developed to predict the ensemble variance as well as the mean response. However these techniques do not account for uncertainties in the system properties. In the present paper uncertainty in the damping loss factor is propagated through SEA to obtain more realistic prediction bounds that account for both ensemble and damping variance. The analysis is performed on a floor-equipped cylindrical test article that resembles an aircraft fuselage. Realistic bounds on the damping loss factor are determined from measurements acquired on the sidewall of the test article. The analysis demonstrates that uncertainties in damping have the potential to significantly impact the mean and variance of the predicted response.
Schiller, Noah↗
Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice
We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
An adaptive ANOVA-based PCKF for high-dimensional nonlinear inverse modeling
The probabilistic collocation-based Kalman filter (PCKF) is a recently developed approach for solving inverse problems. It resembles the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in every aspect—except that it represents and propagates model uncertainty by polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) instead of an ensemble of model realizations. Previous studies have shown PCKF is a more efficient alternative to EnKF for many data assimilation problems. However, the accuracy and efficiency of PCKF depends on an appropriate truncation of the PCE series. Having more polynomial chaos basis functions in the expansion helps to capture uncertainty more accurately but increases computational cost. Selection of basis functions is particularly important for high-dimensional stochastic problems because the number of polynomial chaos basis functions required to represent model uncertainty grows dramatically as the number of input parameters (random dimensions) increases. In classic PCKF algorithms, the PCE basis functions are pre-set based on users' experience. Also, for sequential data assimilation problems, the basis functions kept in PCE expression remain unchanged in different Kalman filter loops, which could limit the accuracy and computational efficiency of classic PCKF algorithms. To address this issue, we present a new algorithm that adaptively selects PCE basis functions for different problems and automatically adjusts the number of basis functions in different Kalman filter loops. The algorithm is based on adaptive functional ANOVA (analysis of variance) decomposition, which approximates a high-dimensional function with the summation of a set of low-dimensional functions. Thus, instead of expanding the original model into PCE, we implement the PCE expansion on these low-dimensional functions, which is much less costly. We also propose a new adaptive criterion for ANOVA that is more suited for solving inverse problems. The new algorithm was tested with different examples and demonstrated great effectiveness in comparison with non-adaptive PCKF and EnKF algorithms.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗