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At least 127 records · Page 7

Modeling of the Mode S tracking system in support of aircraft safety research

This report collects, documents, and models data relating the expected accuracies of tracking variables to be obtained from the FAA's Mode S Secondary Surveillance Radar system. The data include measured range and azimuth to the tracked aircraft plus the encoded altitude transmitted via the Mode S data link. A brief summary is made of the Mode S system status and its potential applications for aircraft safety improvement including accident analysis. FAA flight test results are presented demonstrating Mode S range and azimuth accuracy and error characteristics and comparing Mode S to the current ATCRBS radar tracking system. Data are also presented that describe the expected accuracy and error characteristics of encoded altitude. These data are used to formulate mathematical error models of the Mode S variables and encoded altitude. A brief analytical assessment is made of the real-time tracking accuracy available from using Mode S and how it could be improved with down-linked velocity.

Sorensen, J. A.↗

The Use of Urban Land

Techniques for analyzing scientific information from the lunar and planetary missions now are being applied to land-resource management in and around cities. Two systems have been formalized by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and are being applied in the Los Angeles area. The first, called the 'Land Use Management Information System' incorporates maps, aerial photos, and other land data into routine city and county census records. The second system, 'multiple-input land use' combines satellite imagery with other data sources. Essentially a city street map in computer readable form, the system will help planners in traffic accident analysis, mapping, and land-record.

Source record↗

Enhancing the Operational Resilience of Advanced Reactors with Digital Twins by Recurrent Neural Networks

Because of a lack of operation data during abnormal and accident scenarios, along with the existence of uncertainty in the evaluation model for transient and accident analysis, the established abnormal and emergency operating procedures can be biased in characterizing the reactor states and ensuring operational resilience. To improve state awareness and ensure operational flexibility for minimizing effects on the system due to anomaly, digital twin (DT) technology is suggested to support operator's decision-making by effectively extracting and using knowledge of the current and future plant states from the knowledge base. To demonstrate DT's capability for recovering the complete states of reactors and for predicting the future reactor behaviors, this paper develops and assesses both the diagnosis and prognosis DTs in a nearly autonomous management and control system for an Experimental Breeder Reactor-II simulator during different loss-of-flow scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Safety Analysis for Accident-Tolerant Fuels with Increased Enrichment and Extended Burnup

The ERP research and development efforts in FY22 focused on the safety analysis of ATF with increased enrichment and extended burnup to provide scientific knowledge of the ATF fuel performance, failure mechanism and source term analysis during severe accident of the NPP. FeCrAl clad ATF was selected as basis of the reactor fuel. An optimized equilibrium cycle was developed for 24-months extended burnup operation. A 4-loop PWR model under loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) was assessed and the behavior of the major source term from failed ATF has been analyzed. The result showed that grace to enhanced mechanical characteristics of ATF, the fuel failure starts up to 200~500 seconds later than conventional Zr clad fuel. This time gives sufficient buffer until low pressure safety injection (LPSI) of the emergency core cooling system (ECCS) restarted by the operator which reduces fuel fragmentation, relocation and dispersal (FFRD). As a consequence, the total amount of major radioactive materials released from FeCrAl clad fuel into the reactor containment was found up to three times less compare to Zr clad fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

HYSPLIT/MACCS Atmospheric Dispersion Model Technical Documentation and Benchmark Analysis

The nuclear accident consequence analysis code MACCS has traditionally modeled dispersion during downwind transport using a Gaussian plume segment model. MACCS is designed to estimate consequence measures such as air concentrations and ground depositions, radiological doses, and health and economic impacts on a statistical basis over the course of a year to produce annualaveraged output measures. The objective of this work is to supplement the Gaussian atmospheric transport and diffusion (ATD) model currently in MACCS with a new option using the HYSPLIT model. HYSPLIT/MACCS coupling has been implemented, with HYSPLIT as an alternative ATD option. The subsequent calculations in MACCS use the HYSPLIT-generated air concentration, and ground deposition values to calculate the same range of output quantities (dose, health effects, risks, etc.) that can be generated when using the MACCS Gaussian ATD model. Based on the results from the verification test cases, the implementation of the HYSPLIT/MACCS coupling is confirmed. This report contains technical details of the HYSPLIT/MACCS coupling and presents a benchmark analysis using the HYSPLIT/MACCS coupling system. The benchmark analysis, which involves running specific scenarios and sensitivity studies designed to examine how the results generated by the traditional MACCS Gaussian plume segment model compare to the new, higher fidelity HYSPLIT/MACCS modeling option, demonstrates the modeling results that can be obtained by using this new option. The comparisons provided herein can also help decision-makers evaluate the potential benefit of using results based on higher fidelity modeling with the additional computational burden needed to perform the calculations. Three sensitivity studies to investigate the potential impact of alternative modeling options, regarding 1) input meteorological data set, 2) method to estimate stability class, and 3) plume dispersion model for larger distances, on consequence results were also performed. The results of these analyses are provided and discussed in this report.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An analysis of aircraft accidents involving fires

All U. S. Air Carrier accidents between 1963 and 1974 were studied to assess the extent of total personnel and aircraft damage which occurred in accidents and in accidents involving fire. Published accident reports and NTSB investigators' factual backup files were the primary sources of data. Although it was frequently not possible to assess the relative extent of fire-caused damage versus impact damage using the available data, the study established upper and lower bounds for deaths and damage due specifically to fire. In 12 years there were 122 accidents which involved airframe fires. Eighty-seven percent of the fires occurred after impact, and fuel leakage from ruptured tanks or severed lines was the most frequently cited cause. A cost analysis was performed for 300 serious accidents, including 92 serious accidents which involved fire. Personal injury costs were outside the scope of the cost analysis, but data on personnel injury judgements as well as settlements received from the CAB are included for reference.

Lucha, G. V.↗

Predicting System Accidents with Model Analysis During Hybrid Simulation

Standard discrete event simulation is commonly used to identify system bottlenecks and starving and blocking conditions in resources and services. The CONFIG hybrid discrete/continuous simulation tool can simulate such conditions in combination with inputs external to the simulation. This provides a means for evaluating the vulnerability to system accidents of a system's design, operating procedures, and control software. System accidents are brought about by complex unexpected interactions among multiple system failures , faulty or misleading sensor data, and inappropriate responses of human operators or software. The flows of resource and product materials play a central role in the hazardous situations that may arise in fluid transport and processing systems. We describe the capabilities of CONFIG for simulation-time linear circuit analysis of fluid flows in the context of model-based hazard analysis. We focus on how CONFIG simulates the static stresses in systems of flow. Unlike other flow-related properties, static stresses (or static potentials) cannot be represented by a set of state equations. The distribution of static stresses is dependent on the specific history of operations performed on a system. We discuss the use of this type of information in hazard analysis of system designs.

Malin, Jane T.↗

Source term analysis of FeCrAl accident tolerant fuel using MELCOR

It has been established that incremental improvements in beyond design basis accident performance can be achieved through accident tolerant fuel (ATF). However, they have the potential to recover margin with respect to conventional fuel and therefore enhance plant economics through uprate or cycle length increase. To realize this potential, it is necessary to quantify the reduction in source term due to use of ATF, and correspondingly how this is affected by increasing the cycle length and/or burnup. This requires development of a risk informed analysis methodology for ATF under high burnup conditions, which is being developed within LWRS. To this end, a MELCOR simulation of FeCrAl ATF in a recovered Large Break LOCA (LBLOCA) scenario has been developed, using a model based on the Zion Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The new user defined material capability, along with the inclusion of detailed neutronics- and depletion-derived parameters such as core power distribution, decay heat behavior, and fission product inventories, allows a more detailed simulation of FeCrAl clad material properties and behavior than has previously been possible using MELCOR. These detailed FeCrAl results were compared with a zircaloy clad model to investigate the differences between the two clad types and quantify the benefits of FeCrAl ATF with an 18-month cycle. Next, the fuel cycle with ATF was extended to 24 months, to determine whether any additional safety margin provided by FeCrAl ATF could be leveraged to implement high burnup FeCrAl-clad fuel while retaining the same operating and safety limits as current zircaloy-clad fuel. For the particular scenario analyzed, the delay to fuel failure from using ATF was of the same order as the LOCA recovery time, and hence significant in reducing fission product release, with the 24-month FeCrAl core performing better than the 18-month zircaloy core. It is noted that for other transients, the reduction in release due to using FeCrAl may be less significant. Furthermore, the material model developed here can be used in such further studies in support of determining the overall source term.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Analysis of Postulated Accident Scenarios for the Transformational Challenge Reactor

The Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR) is a helium-cooled, yttrium-hydride-moderated reactor that was designed for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy. A key objective of the TCR was to employ advanced manufacturing techniques in a nuclear system and demonstrate their potential for revolutionizing the nuclear reactor design process. One purpose of the present work is to demonstrate the safety of the TCR under postulated accidents. Based on RELAP5-3D and COMSOL analyses, the TCR remained below all current safety limits and far below the expected failure limits for the core materials. Another purpose of this work is to provide useful insights and recommendations regarding the application of RELAP5-3D to gas-cooled or other advanced reactors. A novel approach was implemented for simultaneously modeling conduction and radiation in RELAP5-3D, which was found to provide reasonable predictions of radial core, vessel, and ex-vessel heat transfer during postulated events. A multicode approach was also applied, in which high-fidelity COMSOL calculations were used to tune the radial heat transfer parameters in RELAP5-3D. The tuned RELAP5-3D model demonstrated comparable peak temperature predictions as COMSOL, despite a coarse treatment of the core in RELAP5-3D consisting of only two lumped heat structures. This high-fidelity tuning approach enabled enhanced accuracy as well as minimal complexity within the RELAP5-3D model, even for complex fuel geometric designs as in the TCR. Finally, investigations were made into the potential for flow reversal during a pressurized loss-of-forced-flow event in the TCR. The TCR is designed with downward helium flow through the core during normal operation. The RELAP5-3D model predicted that this downward flow would persist, without flow reversal, up to several days after the circulator trip. This was attributed to natural circulation hysteresis effects as have been noted in similar thermofluidic systems. Although flow stagnation and eventual reversal did not lead to unsafe TCR conditions, interesting spatial effects were observed which may have safety relevance for other reactor system designs and coolant types that are designed for downward core flow during normal operation, warranting closer investigation of the flow reversal phenomenon.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Manned space flight nuclear system safety. Volume 3: Reactor system preliminary nuclear safety analysis. Part 2A: Accident model document, appendix

The detailed abort sequence trees for the reference zirconium hydride (ZrH) reactor power module that have been generated for each phase of the reference Space Base program mission are presented. The trees are graphical representations of causal sequences. Each tree begins with the phase identification and the dichotomy between success and failure. The success branch shows the mission phase objective as being achieved. The failure branch is subdivided, as conditions require, into various primary initiating abort conditions.

Source record↗

Assessment of CASL VERA for BWR analysis and application to accident tolerant SiC/SiC channel box

Application of the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) to BWR analysis is assessed in this paper by comparing results to those calculated using other widely-used modeling tools, namely the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s PARCS/PATHS and the Serpent Monte Carlo particle transport code. Additionally, VERA is used to calculate 3-D temperature and fast neutron flux distributions in silicon carbide (SiC) fiber-reinforced, SiC matrix composite (SiC/SiC) BWR channel boxes, which are being studied as an Accident Tolerant Fuel core structural material concept. We found that the code-to-code comparisons were favorable, and the SiC/SiC channel box evaluation demonstrates the many advanced modeling features VERA provides while also highlighting the non-uniformity in fast neutron flux distributions that can play a role in potential SiC/SiC channel box deformation. Traditional BWR analysis tools do not have the calculation fidelity necessary for coupled assessment of flux and temperature gradients in a SiC/SiC channel box. VERA is a state-of-the-art modeling environment that was developed to increase the safety and economic competitiveness of nuclear power through improved modeling accuracy. While VERA has already been deployed in the nuclear industry for PWR applications, the current study is a vital initial step in the extensive development, validation, and verification that VERA must go through to be useful for BWR applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Single pilot IFR operating problems determined from accidental data analysis

The accident reports examined were restricted to instrument rated pilots flying in IFR weather. A brief examination was made of accidents which occurred during all phases of flight and which were due to all causes. A detailed examination was made of those accidents which involved a single pilot which occurred during the landing phases of flight, and were due to pilot error. Problem areas found include: (1) landing phase operations especially final approach, (2) pilot weather briefings, (3) night approaches in low IFR weather, (4) below minimum approaches, (5) aircraft icing, (6) imprecise navigation, (7) descending below minimum IFR altitudes, (8) fuel mismanagement, (9) pilot overconfidence, and (10) high pilot workload especially in twins. Some suggested areas of research included: (1) low cost deicing systems, (2) standardized navigation displays, (3) low cost low-altitude warning systems, (4) improved fuel management systems, (5) improved ATC communications, (6) more effective pilot training and experience acquisition methods, and (7) better weather data dissemination techniques.

Forsyth, D. L.↗

Analysis of AP1000 Small-Break Loss-of-Coolant Accident Using Reactor Transient Simulator

The Westinghouse Electric Company’s Advanced Passive Reactor (AP1000) is characterized by the incorporation of passive safety systems (PSSs) designed to ensure core cooling during transient events. The assessment of PSSs requires evaluation of their performance through a combination of experiments and simulations employing various thermal-hydraulic codes. In addition, detailed evaluation of PSSs for a specific reactor system transient analysis such as loss-of-coolant-accident analysis supports understanding representative integral effects test facility development and the further evolution model development and assessment process. Developing a reactor system code is a complex and time-consuming process that requires significant engineering expertise and effort. It can take several months to even years to complete in the early stages of reactor system design and analysis. However, this process can be expedited through the use of transient simulator models for similar reactor systems, which can be used for lesson learning and training purposes. This study uses the Personal Computer Transient Analyzer (PCTRAN) code. The main advantage of PCTRAN is its ease of use and ability to run faster than real time. This study presents the results obtained for a small-break loss-of-coolant accident (SBLOCA) for two breaks using the full version (licensed) of PCTRAN. The purpose of this investigation is to evaluate the overall system behavior during the postulated SBLOCA event as well as assess the capability of the PCTRAN code to reproduce the system response during transient events. The obtained results were compared with the Westinghouse NOTRUMP system code. The PCTRAN code proved to be reliable in predicting the qualitative behavior of the system in both transient cases. As for the system response, it was found that it is contingent on the activation time of the PSSs. The differences in reactor coolant system pressure between the two codes were attributed to the critical flow model and simplification of mass and energy balance. Despite PCTRAN’s limitations, it can still provide a reasonable prediction of various reactor parameters such as pressure, mass flow rate, and void fraction during a SBLOCA scenario. It is worth noting that PCTRAN currently employs a bulk approach similar to that of the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) and MELCOR codes. However, the upcoming version of PCTRAN will include an artificial intelligence–based detection and accident prevention system, as well as different models for different reactor components. Consequently, PCTRAN has the potential to be upgraded to match the system thermal-hydraulic codes of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and become more widely used in cybersecurity to safeguard nuclear power plants from cyberattacks.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

An analysis of pilot error-related aircraft accidents

A multidisciplinary team approach to pilot error-related U.S. air carrier jet aircraft accident investigation records successfully reclaimed hidden human error information not shown in statistical studies. New analytic techniques were developed and applied to the data to discover and identify multiple elements of commonality and shared characteristics within this group of accidents. Three techniques of analysis were used: Critical element analysis, which demonstrated the importance of a subjective qualitative approach to raw accident data and surfaced information heretofore unavailable. Cluster analysis, which was an exploratory research tool that will lead to increased understanding and improved organization of facts, the discovery of new meaning in large data sets, and the generation of explanatory hypotheses. Pattern recognition, by which accidents can be categorized by pattern conformity after critical element identification by cluster analysis.

Kowalsky, N. B.↗

Aircraft Accident Prevention: Loss-of-Control Analysis

The majority of fatal aircraft accidents are associated with loss-of-control . Yet the notion of loss-of-control is not well-defined in terms suitable for rigorous control systems analysis. Loss-of-control is generally associated with flight outside of the normal flight envelope, with nonlinear influences, and with an inability of the pilot to control the aircraft. The two primary sources of nonlinearity are the intrinsic nonlinear dynamics of the aircraft and the state and control constraints within which the aircraft must operate. In this paper we examine how these nonlinearities affect the ability to control the aircraft and how they may contribute to loss-of-control. Examples are provided using NASA s Generic Transport Model.

Kwatny, Harry G.↗