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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Near-Term Effects of Perennial Grasses on Soil Carbon and Nitrogen in Eastern Nebraska

Incorporating native perennial grasses adjacent to annual row crop systems managed on marginal lands can increase system resiliency by diversifying food and energy production. This study evaluated (1) soil organic C (SOC) and total N stocks (TN) under warm-season grass (WSG) monocultures and a low diversity mixture compared to an adjacent no-till continuous-corn system, and (2) WSG total above-ground biomass (AGB) in response to two levels of N fertilization from 2012 to 2017 in eastern Nebraska, USA. The WSG treatments consisted of (1) switchgrass (SWG), (2) big bluestem (BGB), and (3) low-diversity grass mixture (LDM; big bluestem, Indiangrass, and sideoat grama). Soils were sampled at fixed depth increments (0–120 cm) in the WSG plots and in the adjacent corn experiment in 2012 and 2017. Soil stocks (Mg ha−1) of SOC and TN were calculated on an equivalent soil mass (ESM) basis and compared within the three WSG treatments as well as between experiments (corn compared to the mean of all WSGs). Soil organic C and TN stocks within soil layers and cumulative stocks responded to the main effect of WSG (PWSG < 0.05) but were no different when comparing the WSGs to corn (Pexpt = NS). Both SOC/TN stocks and cumulative stocks were generally greater in the LDM compared to the BGB. Neither SOC nor TN changed over time under either the WSGs or corn. Warm-season grass AGB responded to a three-way interaction of year, N rate, and WSG (p = 0.0007). Decreases in AGB over time were significant across WSGs and N levels except for SWG at 56 kg N ha−1 and LDM at 112 kg N ha−1. Above-ground biomass was generally greater in the LDM after the first harvest year (2013). Results suggest that incorporating WSGs into marginal cropland can maintain SOC and TN stocks while providing a significant source of biomass to be used in energy production or in integrated livestock systems.

Ramirez, II, Salvador (ORCID:000000030152153X)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatial–Temporal Patterns of Historical, Near-Term, and Projected Drought in the Conterminous United States

Major droughts in the United States have heavily impacted the hydrologic system, negatively effecting energy and food production. Improved understanding of historical drought is critical for accurate forecasts. Data from global climate models (GCMs), commonly used to assess drought, cannot effectively evaluate local patterns because of their low spatial scale. This research leverages downscaled (~4 km grid spacing) temperature and precipitation estimates from nine GCMs’ data under the business-as-usual scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) to examine drought patterns. Drought severity is estimated using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) with the Thornthwaite evapotranspiration method. The specific objectives were (1) To reproduce historical (1966–2005) drought and calculate near-term to future (2011–2050) drought patterns over the conterminous USA. (2) To uncover the local variability of spatial drought patterns in California between 2012 and 2018 using a network-based approach. Our estimates of land proportions affected by drought agree with the known historical drought events of the mid-1960s, late 1970s to early 1980s, early 2000s, and between 2012 and 2015. Network analysis showed heterogeneity in spatial drought patterns in California, indicating local variability of drought occurrence. The high spatial scale at which the analysis was performed allowed us to uncover significant local differences in drought patterns. This is critical for highlighting possible weak systems that could inform adaptation strategies such as in the energy and agricultural sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

New Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer equation by application of Kirchhoff's law and adding a convection term

An equation for the Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer (ACP) is derived from application of Kirchhoff's law and the addition of a convection term to account for the thermopile being open to the environment, unlike a domed radiometer. The equation is then used to investigate four methods to characterise key instrumental parameters using laboratory and field measurements. The first uses solar irradiance to estimate the thermopile responsivity, the second uses a minimisation method that solves for the thermopile responsivity and transmission of the cavity, and the third and fourth revisit the Reda et al. (2012) linear least squares calibration technique. Data were collected between January and November 2020, when the ACP96 and two IRIS radiometers monitoring terrestrial irradiances were available. The results indicate good agreement with IRIS irradiances using the new equation. The analysis also indicates that while the thermopile responsivity, concentrator transmission and emissivity of an ACP can be determined independently, as an open instrument, the impact of the convection term is minor in steady-state conditions but significant when the base of the instrument is being subjected to rapid artificial cooling or heating. Using laboratory characterisation of the transmission and emissivity, together with use of an estimated solar calibration of the thermopile, generated mean differences of less than 1.5 Wm -2 to the two IRIS radiometers. A minimisation method using each IRIS radiometer as the reference also provided similar results, and the derived thermopile responsivity was within 0.3 µV W -1 m 2 of the solar-calibration-derived infrared responsivity estimate of 10.5 µV W -1 m 2 estimated using a nominal solar calibration and provide irradiances within ±2 % of the terrestrial irradiance measured by the reference pyrgeometers traceable to the International System of Units (SI). The calibration method using linear least squares regression introduced by Reda et al. (2012) that relies on rapid cooling of the ACP base but utilising the new equation was found to produce consistent results but was dependent on the assumed temperature of the air above the thermopile. This study demonstrates the potential of the ACP as another independent reference radiometer for terrestrial irradiance once the magnitude of the convection coefficient and any potential variations in it have been resolved.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coordination of rooting, xylem, and stomatal strategies explains the response of conifer forest stands to multi-year drought in the southern Sierra Nevada of California

Abstract. Extreme droughts are a major determinant of ecosystem disturbance that impacts plant communities and feeds back into climate change through changes in plant functioning. However, the complex relationships between aboveground and belowground plant hydraulic traits and their role in governing plant responses to drought are not fully understood. In this study, we use a model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator in a configuration that includes plant hydraulics (FATES-Hydro), to investigate ecosystem responses to the 2012–2015 California drought in comparison with observations at a site in the southern Sierra Nevada that experienced widespread tree mortality during this drought. We conduct a sensitivity analysis to explore how different plant water sourcing and hydraulic strategies lead to differential responses during normal and drought conditions. The analysis shows the following. Deep roots that sustain productivity through the dry season are needed for the model to capture observed seasonal cycles of evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) in normal years, and deep-rooted strategies are nonetheless subject to large reductions in ET and GPP when the deep soil reservoir is depleted during extreme droughts, in agreement with observations. Risky stomatal strategies lead to greater productivity during normal years as compared to safer stomatal control, but they also lead to a high risk of xylem embolism during the 2012–2015 drought. For a given stand density, stomatal and xylem traits have a stronger impact on plant water status than on ecosystem-level fluxes. Our study highlights the significance of resolving plant water sourcing strategies to represent drought impacts on plants and consequent feedbacks in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Land-use harmonization datasets for annual global carbon budgets

Abstract. Land-use change has been the dominant source of anthropogenic carbon emissions for most of the historical period and is currently one of the largest and most uncertain components of the global carbon cycle. Advancing the scientific understanding on this topic requires that the best data be used as input to state-of-the-art models in well-organized scientific assessments. The Land-Use Harmonization 2 dataset (LUH2), previously developed and used as input for simulations of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), has been updated annually to provide required input to land models in the annual Global Carbon Budget (GCB) assessments. Here we discuss the methodology for producing these annual LUH2-GCB updates and extensions which incorporate annual wood harvest data updates from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations for dataset years after 2015 and the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) gridded cropland and grazing area data updates (based on annual FAO cropland and grazing area data updates) for dataset years after 2012, along with extrapolations to the current year due to a lag of 1 or more years in the FAO data releases. The resulting updated LUH2-GCB datasets have provided global, annual gridded land-use and land-use-change data relating to agricultural expansion, deforestation, wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, regrowth and afforestation, crop rotations, and pasture management and are used by both bookkeeping models and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) for the GCB. For GCB 2019, a more significant update to LUH2 was produced, LUH2-GCB2019 (https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1851, Chini et al., 2020b), to take advantage of new data inputs that corrected cropland and grazing areas in the globally important region of Brazil as far back as 1950. From 1951 to 2012 the LUH2-GCB2019 dataset begins to diverge from the version of LUH2 used for the World Climate Research Programme's CMIP6, with peak differences in Brazil in the year 2000 for grazing land (difference of 100 000 km2) and in the year 2009 for cropland (difference of 77 000 km2), along with significant sub-national reorganization of agricultural land-use patterns within Brazil. The LUH2-GCB2019 dataset provides the base for future LUH2-GCB updates, including the recent LUH2-GCB2020 dataset, and presents a starting point for operationalizing the creation of these datasets to reduce time lags due to the multiple input dataset and model latencies.

Chini, Louise (ORCID:0000000290703505)↗
DOE OSTI2021

A bird of two hemispheres: an examination of Swainson’s hawk (Buteo swainsoni) ecology across a landscape of increasing wind energy development

The purpose of this study was to expand knowledge on the life history of Swainson’s hawks (Buteo swainsoni), including aspects of breeding, juvenile periods, migration, and risks posed by the wind energy industry. Data presented in this dissertation was collected in northern Texas (Armstrong, Carson, Hale, Hockley, Lubbock, Potter, Randall, and Swisher counties) from 2012 to 2018 and from satellite transmitters attached to hawks from 2012 to 2021. Information has been formatted to facilitate future publication of results and is presented here in discrete chapters grouping similar categories of information; some redundancy exists among chapters, but the bulk of each chapter contains unique analyses, results, and conclusions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

AGR-1, AGR-2, AGR-3/4, and AGR-5/6/7 DimensionalChange Analysis

A series of fuel irradiation experiments have been planned in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to support the licensing and operation of the Advanced Reactor Technologies high temperature gas-cooled reactor. The advanced gas reactor (AGR) experiments are comprised of multiple independent capsules containing multiple cylindrical fuel compacts, placed inside of a graphite cylinder in ATR. The purpose of the AGR experiments is to provide data on fuel performance under irradiation, support fuel process development, qualify the fuel for normal operating conditions, provide irradiated fuel for accident testing, and support the development of fuel performance and fission product transport models. The advanced graphite creep (AGC) experiments provide irradiation creep data for design and licensing. To date, six irradiation campaigns have been completed: AGR-1 (December, 2006 – November, 2009); AGR-2 (June, 2010 – October, 2013); AGR-3/4 (December, 2011 – April, 2014); AGC-1 (September, 2009 – January, 2011); AGC-2 (April, 2011 – May, 2012); and AGC-3 (November, 2012 – April, 2014).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pilot Test Remediation of a Fractured Bedrock Aquifer at the Maywood Superfund Site, Maywood, New Jersey - 20073

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and Cabrera Services are conducting a Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) Pilot Test treatment of a fractured bedrock aquifer at the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) Maywood Superfund Site (FMSS) located in Maywood, New Jersey (NJ), USA. The Maywood Chemical Company Superfund Site in Bergen County, NJ is listed on the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Superfund National Priorities List (NPL). The National Superfund Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Information System (CERCLIS) identification number is NJD980529762. The Maywood Chemical Company Superfund Site (hereafter referred to as the FMSS) consists of 92 designated properties in the communities of Maywood, Lodi and Rochelle Park, NJ. These are collectively known as FMSS 'Vicinity Properties' and include property owned by the federal government (the Maywood Interim Storage Site, or MISS); the Stepan Company (former location of the Maywood Chemical Works, or MCW); 62 residential properties; three properties owned by the state or federal government; four municipal properties; and 21 commercial properties. The Stepan Company property includes contaminated buildings and three remediated U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensed burial pits; the MISS also includes a contaminated building. Contamination on the FMSS is being addressed under three separate actions coordinated by the lead regulator USEPA Region 2. The USACE is addressing thorium (Th) and other wastes at the site defined as 'FUSRAP waste' in the Soils and Buildings and Groundwater Records of Decision (ROD) for the FMSS. Stepan Company is addressing other chemical wastes (non-FUSRAP waste) at the FMSS. The Groundwater ROD [1] was signed into agreement by USACE Division Commander in June 2012 and USEPA Region 2 Administrator in July 2012 and presents the selected remedial actions for Operable Unit (OU) 2 groundwater at the MISS and adjacent properties. The selected remedial action is removal of non-radiologically contaminated soils on the MISS containing arsenic, lithium, and benzene with concentrations above cleanup levels, and monitored natural attenuation (MNA) of arsenic, lithium, and benzene in groundwater. In situ treatment of arsenic in the overburden aquifer using oxidation reduction (redox) alteration will also be performed if needed to meet the groundwater cleanup levels after the source soil is removed. The need for in situ treatment will be determined during the Groundwater ROD review at least three to four years after the contaminated source soil removal is completed. The third action addressing non-FUSRAP chemical wastes will be the responsibility of the Stepan Company as a primary responsible party in this action. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Radiochemistry and nuclear chemistry workforce in the United States

The disciplines of radiochemistry and nuclear chemistry have direct applications in the fields of national security, nuclear medicine, nuclear power production, and environmental management. Although, often, nuclear and radiochemistry are grouped together and many experts work in both areas, the definition for each field is slightly different. For example, radiochemistry may be defined as the application of the phenomena of radioactive decay and techniques common to nuclear physics so as to solve problems in the field of chemistry. In contrast, nuclear chemistry may be defined as the application of procedures and techniques common to chemistry to study the structure of the atomic nucleus. This chapter provides a brief update of the current state of, and critical U.S. needs for, nuclear chemistry and radiochemistry expertise as the Assuring a Future U.S.-Based Nuclear and Radiochemistry Expertise report was published by National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 2012.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated Discovery of CH 4 Uptake Capacity Metal–Organic Frameworks Using Bayesian Optimization

Abstract High‐throughput computational studies for discovery of metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) for separations and storage applications are often limited by the costs of computing thermodynamic quantities. Recent such studies at the time of writing may use ab initio results for a narrow selection of MOFs or empirical force‐field methods for larger selections. Here, a proof‐of‐concept study is conducted using Bayesian optimization on CH 4 uptake capacity of hypothetical MOFs for an existing dataset (Wilmer et al., Nature Chem. 2012, 4 , 83). It is shown that less than 0.1% of the database needs to be screened with the Bayesian optimization approach to recover the top candidate MOFs. This opens the possibility for efficient screening of MOF databases using accurate ab initio calculations for future adsorption studies on a minimal subset of MOFs. Furthermore, Bayesian optimization and the surrogate model presented here can offer interpretable material design insights and the framework will be applicable in the context of other target properties.

Taw, Eric↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effect of melting processes on the structure and precipitation of a heavy rainstorm in Beijing

Abstract Beijing and its surrounding areas experienced a torrential rainstorm from July 21 to 22, 2012. Previous studies have shown that melting was the main rainwater source in this process. In this paper, melting conversion processes were set to zero (NPMLT test) to analyze the effect of microphysical processes on the structure and precipitation of the convective system. The results showed that without the melting processes, the wind shear at the 700 hPa level decreased, and the wind field in Beijing and its surrounding areas changed. The cold front system moved faster, and the rainfall amount only reached the low rain level, much lower than that during the actual rainstorm. The hydrometeors sources had apparently changed. Though the latent heat release was large and little latent heat absorption occurred in the NPMLT test, the net latent heat did not affect the development of the convective system, and the precipitation was low. Therefore, microphysical processes greatly influence precipitation and convective system.

Guo, Chunwei↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatial Bayesian models project shifts in suitable habitat for Pacific Northwest tree species under climate change

Abstract We developed spatial Bayesian hierarchical models to assess potential climate change impacts on suitable habitat for five important tree species in the Pacific northwestern United States (California, Oregon, and Washington). Individual‐species models were fit with presence–absence data from forest inventory field plots and spatial relationships were specified through a conditional autoregressive model. This modeling approach allowed us to visualize uncertainty in response curves, map current and future prediction uncertainty, and provide interval estimates for change. Upward elevational or northward latitudinal shifts in climatically suitable habitat were projected for all species. Climate change impacts were the most damaging for noble fir ( Abies procera ), for which 79%–100% of the current range was projected to become climatically unsuitable by the 2080s. Although coastal Douglas‐fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) has been projected by others to gain habitat in Canada, within our study area we projected a net loss of climatically suitable habitat (ca. 8000–31,400 km 2 ) under three of four future climate scenarios. A net loss in habitat was also projected for Oregon white oak ( Quercus garryana ) under three of four scenarios, with 40%–60% of the current range becoming unsuitable. Although there was no net loss of habitat for forest land blue oak under any scenario, other factors like competition may inhibit blue oak ( Quercus douglasii ) and white oak from occupying areas projected to increase in climatic suitability. Additionally, between 13% and 32% of blue oak's current range was projected to become unsuitable; some of these areas aligned with dieback following the 2012–2015 California drought, which our data set predates. Unlike the other four species, we projected a 17%–25% increase in climatically suitable habitat for California black oak ( Quercus kelloggii ), although 1%–20% of the current range was still projected to become unsuitable. Our findings indicate that, although some species will face more pressure in tracking climatically suitable habitat than others, climate change will impact the location of suitable habitat for many species.

Kralicek, Karin↗
DOE OSTI2021

Risk-based area of review estimation in overpressured reservoirs to support injection well storage facility permit requirements for CO 2 storage projects

This paper by the Energy & Environmental Research Center presents a workflow and modeling approach for delineating a risk-based area of review (AOR) to support a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Class VI permit for a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage project. The approach combines semianalytical solutions for estimating formation fluid leakage through a hypothetical leaky wellbore with the results of numerical reservoir simulations to define the AOR. The modeling utilizes 1) semianalytical solutions from the peer-reviewed literature for formation fluid leakage through abandoned wellbores by Raven (1990) and Avci (1994), 2) a FORTRAN model compiled and described in Cihan et al. (2011, 2012) called ASLMA (Analytical Solution for Leakage in Multilayered Aquifers), and 3) a computational framework for estimating a risk-based AOR first proposed by Oldenburg et al. (2014, 2016). Therefore, the approach builds upon well-established research and underlying hydrogeological principles that have been upheld for nearly three decades. Moreover, the ASLMA model has been broadly applied to an array of storage projects. The work presented herein extends these earlier works using a custom wrapper written in the software environment, R (R Core Team, 2020), which was developed to perform multiple runs of the ASLMA model using given ranges for one or more input parameters. In addition, the current work simulates the pressure buildup within the storage reservoir in response to CO 2 injection using a compositional simulator to better accommodate the temporospatial evolution of pressure buildup within the storage reservoir that is more accurately modeled using a heterogeneous geologic model and a compositional simulator that accounts for the multiphase interactions. The workflow is demonstrated using a case study for a 180,000-metric-ton-per-year storage project located in the PCOR (Plains CO 2 Reduction) Partnership region. For the storage project evaluated here, under the scenario where the leaky wellbore is open to a saline aquifer (thief zone) between the overlying seal (cap rock) and the underground sources of drinking water (USDW), the risk-based AOR essentially collapses to the areal extent of the CO 2 plume in the storage reservoir because the pressure buildup in the storage reservoir beyond the CO 2 plume is insufficient to drive formation fluids up a hypothetical leaky wellbore into the USDW. However, even under the conservative assumption that the leaky wellbore is not open to a thief zone, beyond the areal extent of the CO 2 plume, the incremental leakage is less than 400 m 3 over 20 years, which represents ~0.0001% or less of the total volume of water contained within the USDW rock volume. As discussed in the text, the threshold criterion for defining the risk-based AOR is site-specific and should be informed by the results of the sensitivity analysis and available site characterization data. The approach outlined in this paper is designed to be protective of USDWs and, therefore, comply with the Safe Drinking Water Act requirements and provisions for the U.S. EPA Class VI Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program (Class VI Rule) and North Dakota Administrative Code Chapter 43-05-01.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Emerging technologies and radical collaboration to advance predictive understanding of watershed hydrobiogeochemistry

Increasing population and resource-intensive lifestyles are driving enhanced demands for clean water, food, and energy. In parallel, land-use change, climate change, and perturbations—including drought, floods, fires, and early snowmelt—are significantly reshaping interactions within watersheds throughout the world. While watersheds are the Earth's key functional unit for assessing and managing water resources, hydrological processes in watersheds also mediate biogeochemical interactions that support terrestrial life on Earth (Kaushal, Gold, Bernal, & Tank, 2018; National Research Council, 2012). Although society is dependent upon clean water availability, tractable prediction of watershed hydrobiogeochemical behavior, including watershed response to perturbations, remains a challenge. Central to the challenge are complex, multiscale interactions between plants, microorganisms, organic matter, minerals, dissolved constituents, and migrating fluids, which occur within and across bedrock-to-canopy compartments and along extensive lateral gradients of a watershed. Several recent community reports have synthesized formidable challenges associated with watershed science and technology (AGU, 2018; Blöschl et al., 2019). Here, we discuss emerging technologies and collaboration modes that are critical for developing generalizable insights about and predictive understanding of complex watershed hydrobiogeochemical behavior, which are important for underpinning optimized natural resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Long-term hydrological, biogeochemical, and climatological data from Walker Branch Watershed, East Tennessee, USA

In 1967, the original Walker Branch Watershed (WBW) project was established to study elemental cycling and mass balances in a relatively unimpacted watershed. Over the next 50+ years, findings from additional experimental studies and long-term observations on WBW advanced understanding of catchment hydrology, biogeochemistry, and ecology and established WBW as a seminal site for catchment science. The 97.5-ha WBW is located in East Tennessee, USA, on the U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation. Vegetation on the watershed is characteristic of an eastern deciduous, second-growth forest. The watershed is divided into two subcatchments: the West Fork (38.4 ha) and the East Fork (59.1 ha). Headwater streams draining these subcatchments are fed by multiple springs, and thus flow is perennial. Stream water is high in base cations due to weathering of dolomite bedrock and nutrient concentrations are low. Long-term observations of climate, hydrology, and biogeochemistry include daily (1969–2014) and 15-min (1994–2014) stream discharge and annual runoff (1969–2014); hourly, daily, and annual rainfall (1969–2012); daily climate and soil temperature (1993–2010); and weekly stream water chemistry (1989–2013). These long-term datasets are publicly available on the WBW website (https://walkerbranch.ornl.gov/long-term-data/). While collection of these data has ceased, related long-term measurements continue through the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), where WBW is the core terrestrial and aquatic site in the Appalachian and Cumberland Plateau region (NEON's Domain 7) of the United States. These long-term datasets have been and will continue to be important in evaluating the influence of climatic and environmental drivers on catchment processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Variations in northeast Asian summer precipitation driven by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

By analysing a 113–year (1900–2012) observational dataset, it is shown in this work that the interdecadal fluctuation of the summer precipitation over Northeast Asia differs from that in central East Asia during the 20th century, and has experienced three interdecadal shifts in the 1920s, mid-1960s and late 1990s. That fluctuation coincides well with the multidecadal fluctuation of the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic, known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO affects Northeast Asia via a circumglobal teleconnection pattern extending from the North Atlantic to North America. Corresponding with the positive phase of this teleconnection pattern, a tripolar pattern emerges in the Asian–North Pacific sector, with anomalous low pressure over Northeast Asia and high pressure over Lake Baikal and the mid-latitude western North Pacific. These results suggest that the positive phase of the AMO favours the occurrence of cold vortex over Northeast Asia and anomalous highs over Lake Baikal and the mid-latitude western North Pacific in summer, which enhances the East Asian summer monsoon and southward intrusion of high-latitude cold air, and eventually increases the summer precipitation in Northeast Asia. Furthermore, initialized decadal prediction simulations using the CCSM4 model reproduce well the observed variations of the AMO and its associated atmospheric teleconnection but with slightly shifted geographic locations. The simulated anomalous Northeast Asia cold vortex and strong East Asian summer monsoon, lead to above-normal summer precipitation over Northeast Asia. The modelling results confirm that the multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic can cause the observed interdecadal variations of Northeast Asia summer precipitation. Our results suggest that to understand and predict interdecadal climate change over Northeast Asia, it is important to consider the key role of the AMO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stock-specific spatial overlap among seabird predators and Columbia River juvenile Chinook Salmon suggests a mechanism for predation during early marine residence

Abstract Objective Because predation is thought to be the primary source of natural mortality for juvenile salmon first entering the ocean, we sought to identify regions where, on average, stock-specific spatial overlap between the distribution of threatened and endangered juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and abundant fish-eating seabirds (common murres Uria aalge and sooty shearwaters Ardenna grisea) suggests the greatest potential for ocean predation risk to juvenile Chinook Salmon. Methods The relative abundance and spatial distribution of seabird predators and juvenile Chinook Salmon were quantified as part of long-term ecosystem surveys during May 2003–2012 and June 2003–2022. Genetic stock identification methods were used to assign individual fish to their respective stock groups. Stock-specific species distribution models then generated maps and indices of average annual spatial overlap between predators and prey within the survey area. Result There is unequivocal evidence for spatial overlap between common murres, sooty shearwaters, and five genetic groups of interior and lower Columbia River juvenile Chinook Salmon. We found strongly positive (≥0.70) spatial correlations between predator and prey densities in both May and June, although spatial overlap was, in general, greater during May. The region of highest spatial overlap occurred on the inner continental shelf between the Columbia River mouth (46.2°N) and Grays Harbor (47.0°N), a region at the beginning of the juvenile salmon migratory pathway that is strongly affected by freshwater outflow from the river. Conclusion Our findings support the idea that ocean avian predation during early marine residence has the potential to affect marine survival of juvenile Chinook Salmon and should be further investigated to better inform and implement ecological models and possible recovery actions for Chinook Salmon populations of the Columbia River basin.

Zamon, Jeannette E.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Abundance Estimates of Spring–Summer Snake River Chinook Salmon for Fisheries Management

Abstract The Columbia River basin is home to a run of spring–summer Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that returns to the Snake River drainage of Idaho, Oregon, and Washington in the Pacific Northwest. Historically, the run was one of the more productive throughout the Columbia River basin. However, Snake River spring–summer Chinook Salmon have experienced declines in abundance due to overfishing, habitat degradation, and dams. Several stocks are listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and are supported by mitigation hatcheries funded by Idaho Power Company, the Lower Snake River Compensation Plan, and the Bonneville Power Administration. To maximize tribal and state harvest of returning hatchery adults, minimize impacts on wild fish, and ensure that enough hatchery fish return to meet broodstock needs, careful fisheries management is required. Since 2008, managers have used hatchery adults, PIT-tagged as juveniles and detected at Lower Granite Dam, to generate adult abundance estimates. In season, these estimates inform state and tribal harvest shares and ensure that broodstock needs are met. Postseason, they provide smolt-to-adult survival and return rates. Since 2012, parentage-based tagging (PBT) has provided an alternative method to estimate stock- and age-specific returns at Lower Granite Dam, since returning hatchery adults sampled at Lower Granite Dam can be assigned to their parents. We compared stock-specific abundance estimates between PIT- and PBT-derived methodologies for return years 2016–2019. Across all years, PIT tag estimates accounted for 65% of the PBT-based estimates at Lower Granite Dam across all age-groups and release sites combined. This underrepresentation across all groups equated to 49,833 fish that were not accounted for in PIT tag abundance estimates. It is clear that PBT-based estimates should aide in-season harvest management and postseason run reconstruction to avoid the known bias of estimates from PIT tags, especially during years of low returns when increased accuracy is critical.

Coykendall, D. Katharine (ORCID:0000000211482397)↗