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At least 1,243 records · Page 69
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Simulation of Atmospheric Blocking in a High‐Resolution Earth System Model: Projected Changes and Implications for Extreme Weather Events

Atmospheric blocking is closely linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events. However, low-resolution Earth system models often underestimate the frequency of blocking, undermining confidence in future projections. Here, in this study, we use the high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM-HR; 25 km atm and 10 km ocean) to show that CESM-HR reduces biases in atmospheric blocking for both winter and summer, particularly for events lasting longer than 10 days. This improvement is partly due to reduced sea surface temperature biases at higher resolution. Additionally, applying a bias correction to the 500 hPa geopotential height further enhances blocking frequency simulations, highlighting the crucial role of the mean state. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, CESM-HR projects a decrease in wintertime blocking over regions such as the Euro-Atlantic and Chukchi-Alaska, consistent with previous studies. In contrast, summer blocking is expected to become more frequent and persistent, driven by weakened zonal winds. The blocking center shifts from historical locations over Scandinavia and eastern Russia to central Eurasia, significantly increasing blocking over the Ural region. Summer blocking frequency over the Scandinavia-Ural region may eventually surpass historical winter blocking over the Euro-Atlantic. This increase in summer blocking could exacerbate summer heatwaves in a warming climate, making severe heatwaves, like those observed recently, more common in the future.

Atmospheric blocking↗
DOE OSTI2025

Regional and Temporal Variability of Atmospheric River Seasonality: Influences of Detection Algorithms and Moisture Transport Dynamics

Abstract Understanding the regional and temporal variability of atmospheric river (AR) seasonality is crucial for preparedness and mitigation of extreme events. While ARs were thought to peak in winter, recent research shows they exhibit region‐specific seasonality and are heavily influenced by the chosen detection algorithm. This study examines the link between the year‐to‐year consistency of peak‐AR activity to the presence of a dominant seasonal pattern, considering both location and algorithm choice. Regions are categorized by their temporal characteristics: consistent patterns (e.g., East Asia), patterns with occasional outliers (e.g., British Columbia coast), and regions lacking a clear dominant peak season (e.g., South Atlantic, parts of Australia). Hence, not all regions display a consistent seasonal cycle of AR activity. This study quantifies the extent to which a region experiences a dominant peak season of AR activity (or lacks one) and offers insights to enhance decision‐making in water management, natural hazard preparedness, and forecasting. Furthermore, given our finding that detection algorithms influence the peak season of AR activity, we also examine two diagnostic variables representative of moisture transport to corroborate our results. Integrated vapor transport, which captures meridional and zonal moisture transport, and Moist Wave Activity, representing moisture intrusions from lower to higher latitudes, are examined. Our analysis indicates that inconsistencies in the seasonal cycle of AR activity are not solely due to discrepancies in detection algorithms but also arise from changes in moisture transport. Plain Language Summary Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are critical weather phenomena that can cause extreme events like heavy rainfall and flooding. Understanding when and where ARs are most likely to occur throughout the year is essential for preparing and responding to these events. Traditionally, ARs were thought to peak in winter, but recent studies show this varies by region. Our study helps address the challenge decision‐makers face in anticipating and preparing for AR events by providing insights into the consistency of peak seasonal patterns across different areas. Some regions, like East Asia, and the British Columbia coast, show a consistent peak season, while others, like the South Atlantic and parts of Australia, have significant year‐to‐year variations, making it hard to identify a dominant season. To better understand these changes over time, the study also examines how moisture moves in the atmosphere, using Integrated Vapor Transport (which looks at moisture movement in various directions) and Moist Wave Activity (which tracks moisture shifts from lower to higher latitudes). The findings suggest that inconsistencies in AR patterns are due not only to detection methods but also due to changes in moisture transport. Key Points The peak season of atmospheric river activity can change depending on the year in some areas Interannual variations in the peak season can make identifying a dominant season challenging for some regions Frequent shifts in peak season across years reflect inconsistencies tied to detection algorithms and to underlying dynamics

Kamnani, Diya↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stable Machine‐Learning Parameterization of Subgrid Processes in a Comprehensive Atmospheric Model Learned From Embedded Convection‐Permitting Simulations

Modern climate projections often suffer from inadequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational limitations, resulting in inaccurate representations of sub-grid processes. A promising technique to address this is the multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which embeds a kilometer-resolution cloud-resolving model (CRM) within each atmospheric column of a host climate model to replace traditional convection and cloud parameterizations. Machine learning offers a unique opportunity to make MMF more accessible by emulating the embedded CRM and reducing its substantial computational cost. Although many studies have demonstrated proof-of-concept success of achieving stable hybrid simulations, it remains a challenge to achieve near operational-level success with real geography and comprehensive variable emulation that includes, for example, explicit cloud condensate coupling. In this study, we present a stable hybrid model capable of integrating for at least 5 years with near operational-level complexity, including coarse-grid geography, seasonality, explicit cloud condensate and wind predictions, and land coupling. Our model demonstrates skillful online performance, achieving a 5-year zonal mean tropospheric temperature bias within 2 K, water vapor bias within 1 g/kg, and a precipitation root mean square error of 0.96 mm/day. Key factors contributing to our online performance include an expressive U-Net architecture and physical thermodynamic constraints for microphysics. With microphysical constraints mitigating unrealistic cloud formation, our work is the first to demonstrate realistic multi-year cloud condensate climatology under the MMF framework. Despite these advances, online diagnostics reveal persistent biases in certain regions, highlighting the need for innovative strategies to further optimize online performance.

Hu, Zeyuan [NVIDIA Corporation, Santa Clara, CA (U↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Convective Microphysics Scheme and Its Impacts on Mean Climate in E3SM

Abstract To improve the representation of microphysical processes in convective clouds and their interaction with aerosol and stratiform clouds, a two‐moment convective microphysics parameterization (CMP) scheme developed by Song and Zhang (2011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010jd014833 ) is upgraded and implemented in E3SM. The new developments include: (a) implementing a parameterization for graupel to enhance the representation of ice‐phase microphysical processes; (b) representing the impact of spatial inhomogeneity of cloud droplets in cumulus ensembles on autoconversion and accretion processes to improve the representation of warm‐rain microphysical processes; (c) implementing a comprehensive Bergeron process parameterization to better represent mixed‐phase microphysical processes; and (d) representing the interactions between ice‐phase microphysics and cloud thermodynamics. Simulations show that the cloud microphysical properties simulated by the CMP are generally in good agreement with observations. It reasonably simulates the changes in droplets effective radius related to precipitation formation in convective clouds, as identified from satellite observations. It also successfully simulates the contrast in these processes between maritime and continental clouds, demonstrating its capability to simulate the impact of aerosols on convection. Analyses of the impact of CMP on climate mean state simulation demonstrate that the CMP slightly improves the simulations of precipitation, cloud macrophysical properties, longwave cloud radiative forcing, zonal wind, and temperature. However, a degradation in shortwave cloud radiative forcing occurs.

GCM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stable Simulation of the Community Atmosphere Model Using Machine‐Learning Physical Parameterization Trained With Experience Replay

In recent years, machine learning (ML) models have been used to improve physical parameterizations of general circulation models (GCMs). A significant challenge of integrating ML models into GCMs is the online instability when they are coupled for long‐term simulation. We present a new strategy that demonstrates robust online stability when the physical parameterization package of an atmospheric GCM is replaced by a deep ML model. The method uses experience replay with a multistep training scheme of the ML model in which the model's own output at the previous time step is used in the training. Predicted physics tendencies in the replay buffer with the most recent errors in the training iterations are reused, making the ML model learn from its own errors. The training method reduces the gap between the offline and online environments of the ML model. The method is used to train the ML model as the physical parameterization of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) with training data from the Multi‐scale Modeling Framework high resolution simulations. Three 6‐year online simulations of the CAM5 are carried out by using the ML physics package. The simulated spatial distributions of precipitation, surface temperature and zonally averaged atmospheric fields demonstrate overall better accuracy than that of the standard CAM5 and benchmark model even without the use of additional physical constraints or tuning. This work is the first to demonstrate a solution to address the online instability problem in climate modeling with ML physics by using experience replay.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Increased Asian Aerosols Contribute to Historical Climate Change in Antarctica

Since the 1980s, anthropogenic aerosols (AAs) have decreased in North America and Europe, while they have continued to increase in East and South Asia. Meanwhile, climate change in Antarctica has exhibited a zonally asymmetric pattern. However, few studies have linked the two. In this study, we conduct fully coupled model experiments and find that Antarctica responds more significantly to Asian AAs than to those from North America and Europe. Increased Asian AAs induce a tri‐polar anomaly pattern in Antarctica via a poleward propagating Rossby wave train. This pattern is characterized by warmer temperature and less sea ice in the Amundsen‐Bellingshausen Seas, and cooler temperature and more sea ice in regions on its both flanks. Our findings highlight the importance of remote forcing, such as AAs in the Northern Hemisphere, in driving historical changes in Antarctica through atmospheric teleconnection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Crowdsourcing the Frontier: Advancing Hybrid Physics‐ML Climate Simulation via a $\$$50,000 Kaggle Competition

Subgrid machine-learning (machine learning [ML]) parameterizations have the potential to introduce a new generation of climate models that incorporate the effects of higher-resolution physics without incurring the prohibitive computational cost associated with more explicit physics-based simulations. However, important issues, ranging from online instability to inconsistent online performance, have limited their operational use for long-term climate projections. To more rapidly drive progress in solving these issues, domain scientists and ML researchers opened up the offline aspect of this problem to the broader ML and data science community with the release of ClimSim, a NeurIPS Data sets and Benchmarks publication, and an associated Kaggle competition. This paper reports on the downstream results of the Kaggle competition by coupling emulators inspired by the winning teams' architectures to an interactive climate model (including full cloud microphysics, a regime historically prone to online instability) and systematically evaluating their online performance. Our results demonstrate that online stability in the low-resolution real-geography setting is reproducible across multiple diverse architectures, which we consider a key milestone. All tested architectures exhibit strikingly similar offline and online biases, though their responses to architecture-agnostic design choices (e.g., expanding the list of input variables) can differ significantly. Multiple Kaggle-inspired architectures achieve state-of-the-art results on certain metrics such as zonal mean bias patterns and global Root Mean Squared Error, indicating that crowdsourcing the essence of the offline problem is one path to improving online performance in hybrid physics-AI climate simulation.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Little influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude climate

Observations and model simulations show enhanced warming in the Arctic under increasing greenhouse gases, a phenomenon known as the Arctic amplification (AA), that is likely caused by sea-ice loss. AA reduces meridional temperature gradients linked to circulation, thus mid-latitude weather and climate changes have been attributed to AA, often on the basis of regression analysis and atmospheric simulations. However, other modelling studies show only a weak link. This inconsistency may result from deficiencies in separating the effects of AA from those of natural variability or background warming. In this work, using coupled model simulations with and without AA, we show that cold-season precipitation, snowfall and circulation changes over northern mid-latitudes come mostly from background warming. AA and sea-ice loss increase precipitation and snowfall above ~60° N and reduce meridional temperature gradients above ~45° N in the lower–mid troposphere. However, minimal impact on the mean climate is seen below ~60° N, with weak reduction in zonal wind over 50°–70° N and 150–700 hPa, mainly over the North Atlantic and northern central Asia. These results suggest that the climatic impacts of AA are probably small outside the high latitudes, thus caution is needed in attributing mid-latitude changes to AA and sea-ice loss on the basis of statistical analyses that cannot distinguish the impact of AA from other correlated changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced performance in fusion plasmas through turbulence suppression by megaelectronvolt ions

Alpha particles with energies on the order of megaelectronvolts will be the main source of plasma heating in future magnetic confinement fusion reactors. Instead of heating fuel ions, most of the energy of alpha particles is transferred to electrons in the plasma. Furthermore, alpha particles can also excite Alfvénic instabilities, which were previously considered to be detrimental to the performance of the fusion device. In this work, we report improved thermal ion confinement in the presence of megaelectronvolts ions and strong fast ion-driven Alfvénic instabilities in recent experiments on the Joint European Torus. Herein, detailed transport analysis of these experiments reveals turbulence suppression through a complex multi-scale mechanism that generates large-scale zonal flows. This holds promise for more economical operation of fusion reactors with dominant alpha particle heating and ultimately cheaper fusion electricity.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pollen antigens and atmospheric circulation driven seasonal respiratory viral outbreak and its implication to the Covid-19 pandemic

Abstract The patterns of respiratory virus illness are expressed differently between temperate and tropical climates. Tropical outbreaks often peak in wet seasons. Temperate outbreaks typically peak during the winter. The prevailing causal hypotheses focus on sunlight, temperature and humidity variations. Yet no consistent factors have been identified to sufficiently explain seasonal virus emergence and decline at any latitude. Here we demonstrate close connections among global-scale atmospheric circulations, IgE antibody enhancement through seasonal pollen inhalation, and respiratory virus patterns at any populated latitude, with a focus on the US. Pollens emerge each Spring, and the renewed IgE titers in the population are argued to terminate each winter peak of respiratory illness. Globally circulated airborne viruses are postulated to subsequently deposit across the Southern US during lower zonal geostrophic winds each late Summer. This seasonally refreshed viral load is postulated to trigger a new influenza outbreak, once the existing IgE antibodies diminish to a critical value each Fall. Our study offers a new and consistent explanation for the seasonal diminishment of respiratory viral illnesses in temperate climates, the subdued seasonal signature in the tropics, the annually circulated virus phenotypes, and the northerly migration of influenza across the US every year. Our integrated geospatial and IgE hypothesis provides a new perspective for prediction, mitigation and prevention of the outbreak and spread of seasonal respiratory viruses including Covid-19 pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

First implementation of gyrokinetic exact linearized Landau collision operator and comparison with models

Gyrokinetic simulations are fundamental to understanding and predicting turbulent transport in magnetically confined fusion plasmas. Previous simulations have used model collision operators with approximate field-particle terms of unknown accuracy and/or have neglected collisional finite Larmor radius (FLR) effects. We have implemented the linearized Fokker–Planck collision operator with exact field-particle terms and full FLR effects in a gyrokinetic code (GENE). The new operator, referred to as “exact” in this paper, allows the accuracy of model collision operators to be assessed. The conservative Landau form is implemented because its symmetry underlies the conservation laws and the H-theorem, and enables numerical methods to preserve this conservation, independent of resolution. The implementation utilizes the finite-volume method recently employed to discretize the Sugama collision model in GENE, allowing direct comparison between the two operators. Results show that the Sugama model appears accurate for the growth rates of trapped electron modes (TEMs) driven only by density gradients, but appreciably underestimates the growth rates as the collisionality and electron temperature gradient increase. The TEM turbulent fluxes near the nonlinear threshold using the exact operator are similar to the Sugama model for the n e = d ln T e /d ln n e = 0 case, but substantially larger than the Sugama model for the n e = 1 case. The FLR effects reduce the growth rates increasingly with wavenumber deepening a “valley” at the intermediate binormal wavenumber as the unstable mode extends from the TEM regime to the electron temperature gradient instability regime. Application to the Hinton–Rosenbluth problem shows that zonal flows decay faster as the radial wavenumber increases and the exact operator yields weaker decay rates.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Potential vorticity transport in weakly and strongly magnetized plasmas

Tangled magnetic fields, often coexisting with an ordered mean field, have a major impact on turbulence and momentum transport in many plasmas, including those found in the solar tachocline and magnetic confinement devices. We present a novel mean field theory of potential vorticity mixing in β-plane magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) and drift wave turbulence. Our results show that mean square stochastic fields strongly reduce Reynolds stress coherence. This decoherence of potential vorticity flux due to stochastic field scattering leads to suppression of momentum transport and zonal flow formation. A simple calculation suggests that the breaking of the shear-eddy tilting feedback loop by stochastic fields is the key underlying physics mechanism. Furthermore, a dimensionless parameter that quantifies the increment in power threshold is identified and used to assess the impact of stochastic field on the L-H transition. We discuss a model of stochastic fields as a resisto-elastic network.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Saturation physics of threshold heat-flux reduction

The saturation physics of ion-temperature-gradient-driven turbulence is examined in relation to the temperature-gradient variation of the heat flux, which can exhibit an upshift of the critical gradient for significant flux relative to the linear instability threshold. Gyrokinetic measurements of saturation properties and spectral energy transfer, which will be defined in Sec. II, are presented, indicating that the physics of saturation is fundamentally unchanged on either side of the upshifted gradient. To analyze heat transport below and above the upshifted critical gradient, a fluid model for toroidal ion-temperature-gradient turbulence is modified to include the kinetic instability threshold. The model and the heat flux are rendered in the eigenmode decomposition to track the dominant mode-coupling channel of zonal-flow-catalyzed transfer to a conjugate stable mode. Given linear and nonlinear symmetries, the stable mode level and the cross-correlation of the unstable and stable mode amplitudes are related to the unstable mode level via linear physics. Here, the heat flux can then be written in terms of the unstable-mode level, which through a nonlinear balance depends on the eigenmode-dependent coupling coefficients and the triplet correlation time of the dominant coupled modes. Resonance in these quantities leads to suppressed heat flux above the linear threshold, with a nonlinear upshift of the critical gradient set by the resonance broadening of a finite perpendicular wavenumber and collisionality.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

ETG turbulence in a tokamak pedestal

This paper explores the fundamental characteristics of electron-temperature-gradient (ETG)-driven turbulence in the tokamak pedestal. The extreme gradients in the pedestal produce linear instabilities and nonlinear turbulence that are distinct from the corresponding ETG phenomenology in the core plasma. The linear system exhibits multiple (greater than ten) unstable eigenmodes at each perpendicular wave vector, representing different toroidal and slab branches of the ETG instability. Proper orthogonal decomposition of the nonlinear fluctuations reveals no clear one-to-one correspondence between the linear and nonlinear modes for most wave vectors. Moreover, nonlinear frequencies deviate strongly from those of the linear instabilities, with spectra peaking at positive frequencies, which is opposite the sign of the ETG instability. The picture that emerges is one in which the linear properties are preserved only in a narrow range of k-space. Outside this range, nonlinear processes produce strong deviations from both the linear frequencies and eigenmode structures. This is interpreted in the context of critical balance, which enforces alignment between the parallel scales and fluctuation frequencies. We also investigate the nonlinear saturation processes. We observe a direct energy cascade from the injection scale to smaller scales in both perpendicular directions. However, in the bi-normal direction, there is also nonlocal inverse energy transfer to larger scales. Neither streamers nor zonal flows dominate the saturation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamics of rapidly spinning blob-filaments: Fluid theory with a parallel kinetic extension

Blob-filaments (or simply “blobs”) are coherent structures formed by turbulence and sustained by nonlinear processes in the edge and scrape-off layer (SOL) of tokamaks and other magnetically confined plasmas. The dynamics of these blob-filaments, in particular, their radial motion, can influence the scrape-off layer width and plasma interactions with both the divertor target and with the main chamber walls. Motivated by recent results from the XGC1 gyrokinetic simulation code reported on elsewhere [J. Cheng et al., Nucl. Fusion 63, 086015 (2023)], a theory of rapidly spinning blob-filaments has been developed for this work. The theory treats blob-filaments in the closed flux surface region or the region that is disconnected from sheaths in the SOL. It extends previous work by treating blob spin, arising from partially or fully adiabatic electrons, as the leading-order effect and retaining inertial (ion charge polarization) physics in next order. Spin helps to maintain blob coherency and affects the blob's propagation speed. Dipole charge polarization, treated perturbatively, gives rise to blob-filaments with relatively slow radial velocity, comparable to that observed in the simulations. The theory also treats the interaction of rapidly spinning blob-filaments with a zonal flow layer. It is shown analytically that the flow layer can act like a transport barrier for these structures. Finally, parallel electron kinetic effects are incorporated into the theory. Various asymptotic parameter regimes are discussed, and asymptotic expressions for the radial and poloidal motion of the blob-filaments are obtained.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Potential vorticity conservation for plasma turbulence in an inhomogeneous magnetic field: Theory and implications

The concept and theory of potential vorticity in drift wave turbulence are extended to the case of an inhomogeneous magnetic field. A one-field magnetic potential vorticity conserving equation is derived via the use of conservative gyrokinetics. The similarity between the corresponding systems for drift wave turbulence and shallow water theory is discussed in detail. Zonal flow physics in an inhomogeneous magnetic field is discussed. In particular, a Charney–Drazin type nonacceleration theorem is derived from the novel system, which conserves magnetic potential vorticity. Extensions of the turbulent equipartition theory to the transport of magnetic potential vorticity are proposed.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

A subgrid model for electron-scale turbulent transport in global ion-scale gyrokinetic simulations of tokamak plasmas

A subgrid electron–temperature–gradient (ETG) model is demonstrated here which averages local electron-scale turbulence over intermediate scales in space and time to include in global ion–temperature–gradient (ITG) simulations. This approach results in ion-scale equations, which incorporate the electron heat transport from ETG turbulence and the effects of electron-scale turbulence on the ion scale. Flux-tube ETG Cyclone Base Case simulations are performed at different radial locations and a kinetic form of the flux is added to global ion-scale (IS) simulations as a source term. Analytic radial profiles of ETG heat flux are constructed and compared to flux-tube results at multiple radial locations. Different ratios of ITG to ETG heat flux levels are considered and the results of capturing ETG heat transport in global ion-scale simulations are discussed. The potential coupling of the ETG streamer potential and intermediate-scale zonal flows to the ion scale is further addressed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deuterium and tritium anomalous transport in the generalized Hasegawa–Wakatani resistive drift wave turbulence model with finite ion Larmor radius

Anomalous transport of mixed deuterium–tritium plasma in the edge of magnetic fusion reactors is investigated using numerical solutions of resistive drift wave turbulence model equations, including finite Larmor radius effects, that are derived within the generalized Hasegawa–Wakatani framework. The anomalous cross field diffusivities of deuterium and tritium are compared in turbulence regimes with different values of the electron adiabaticity parameter controlling the existence of zonal flow. The dependence of the tritium-to-deuterium diffusivity ratio on the deuterium and tritium densities and the logarithmic density gradients is analyzed, and a scaling relation is obtained.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗