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NASA NTRS2017

VHF SoOp (Signal of Opportunity) Technology Demonstration for Soil Moisture Measurement Using Microwave Hydraulic Boom Truck Platform

A goal of this research is to test deployable VHF antennas for 6U Cubesat platforms to enable validation of root zone soil moisture (RZSM) estimation algorithms for signal of opportunity (SoOp) remote sensing over the 240-270 MHz frequency band. The proposed work provides a strong foundation for establishing a technology development path for maturing a global direct surface soil moisture (SM) and RZSM measurement system over a variety of land covers. Knowledge of RZSM up to a depth of 1 meter and surface SM up to a depth of 0.05 meter on a global scale, at a spatial resolution of 1-10 km through moderate-to-heavy vegetation, is critical to understanding global water resources and the vertical moisture gradient in the Earths surface layer which controls moisture interactions between the soil, vegetation, and atmosphere. Current observations of surface SM from space by L-band radiometers (1.4 GHz) and radars (1.26 GHz) are limited to measurements of surface SM up to a depth of 0.05 meter through moderate amounts of vegetation. This limitation is mainly due to the inability of L-band signals to penetrate through dense vegetation and deep into the soil column. Satellite observations of the surface moisture conditions are coupled to sophisticated models which extrapolate the surface SM into the root zone, thus providing an indirect estimate rather than a direct measurement of RZSM. To overcome this limitation, low-frequency airborne radars operating at 435 MHz and 118 MHz have been investigated, since these lower frequencies should penetrate denser vegetation and respond to conditions deeper in the soil.

SoOp↗

DOE OSTI2023

The persistence and conversion of coastal foredune and swale vegetation community distributions 63 years later

Vegetation shifts can directly alter habitat dynamics and indirectly impact habitat stability relative to disturbance response. Barrier island dune habitats exhibit spatiotemporally dynamic topography that is affected by vegetation. However, vegetation distribution data can be rare and vegetation persistence is largely unknown such that species turnover over in communities can occur unnoticed. This is true despite concerns and documented cases of woody encroachment related to climate change in these ecogeomorphic habitats where physical stability to resist storm erosion varies with vegetation distribution and density. In 1956 and 1957, the vegetation of Island Beach State Park, NJ, was mapped as a permanent record for subsequent ecological study. In June 2020, we remapped the vegetation of 5.4 of 17 km north to south, seaward of the thicket community boundary. We maintained the same classification system as the historic record, physically mapping vegetation patches via GPS. We quantified changes in thicket, heather, and grass community distribution between the two time periods. Habitat persistence and conversion varied in the 63 years. Heath communities saw 80%–97% habitat loss in conversion to woody thicket. Conversely, thicket community distribution drastically increased, replacing heath where it was previously prevalent. This represents the first known documented instances of woody encroachment for Morella pensylvanica. When they did not expand, thicket communities receded landward or underwent turnover to an invasive species. Woody species of interest for dune stabilization occupied areas of similar habitat characteristics. Dune vegetation distribution persistence from 1957 to 2020 was relatively consistent and stable with the exception of heath habitat conversion. Barrier island stability is directly related to vegetation stability such that understanding where community shifts might occur over time can aid in managing and modeling efforts surrounding these dynamic ecogeomorphic habitats.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Water foraging with dynamic roots in E3SM; The role of roots in terrestrial ecosystem memory on intermediate timescales (Final Technical Report)

Terrestrial ecosystems can show sustained responses to stress events that may last for years after the initial perturbation. This phenomenon is referred to as legacy or memory and it emerges from a set of ecosystem processes that are poorly captured by Earth System and Land Surface Models. Consequently, these models struggle to predict the impact that extreme climate events have on surface energy, carbon and hydrological exchange once a stressor such as drought has relaxed or in response to repeated exposure to stress. In this project, we set out to test how the addition of dynamic root profiles in land surface models impact the capacity for Earth System Models, such as the Department of Energy’s E3SM, to capture realistic legacy effects. Observations have shown that vegetation shifts their root profiles during stress events to forage for water and these altered root profiles may take years to relax back to the initial state. We hypothesized that the alteration of the belowground root structures may be a source of terrestrial ecosystem legacy that is missing from models. To test this idea we undertook three core activities. (1) We developed a global-scale analysis of the impact of dynamic roots on ecosystem legacy building from a recently developed dynamic root module. (2) We developed new root dynamics in the DOE’s Energy Land Model (ELM) that allowed not only root profiles to shift their profile but also simultaneously alter carbon allocation to fine root pools. We then tested the impact of these new dynamics with intensive sensitivity analysis at four long-term AmeriFlux sites. (3) We undertook detailed isotopic analysis of tree rings from these AmeriFlux sites to assess ecophysiological and ecohydrological legacy to stress events that can be used to benchmark the sensitivity experiments with ELM. From these core activities, we report the following key findings. Firstly, on a global scale, the addition of dynamic roots led to chronically water-stressed ecosystems recovering faster to climate stress while wetter ecosystem showed enhanced legacy. This is because across ecosystems, stress events were almost universally associated with water shortages that led to the development of deeper root profiles. These deeper root profiles proved beneficial for recovery from drought stress. While the root dynamics did not universally improve the modeled representation of legacy it showed complex transient dynamics that emerge from the addition of dynamic roots. Secondly, the sensitivity analysis illustrated long term shifts in rooting depths away from the prescribed default profile suggesting that initializing of root profiles could benefit from spin-up simulations that converge on locally optimized root profiles. In addition, by enabling dynamic allocation some of the sites predicted unrealistically low allocation to roots (and high allocation to leaves). While these changes did not dramatically alter modeled gross primary productivity, they illustrated that without more sophisticated root processes in models, there is little penalty to dramatically disinvest in roots. Thirdly, the isotopic analysis of tree rings showed highly distinct legacy responses across species and sites. For example, T. canadensis showed reduced transpiration the year after stress events illustrated by sustained elevated $\delta^{18}$O. In contrast, A saccharum displayed elevated $\delta^{13}$C associated with reduced stomatal conductance in response to the previous years’ stress event. These geochemical signatures of legacy were present despite tree growth returning to normal the year after the stress. The results show the importance of species-level dynamics in legacy that are absent in modeling that assumes common traits within plant functional types. In summary, the work here established new avenues to explore root dynamics in models while illustrating how additional root processes are needed before dynamic carbon allocation can be implemented. Lastly, this project provided mentorship to a postdoctoral fellow, training for an early career scientist and multiple undergraduate students recruited from a minority serving institution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Spatially Coherent Global Soil Moisture Product with Improved Temporal Resolution

Global soil moisture products that are completely independent of any type of ancillary data and solely rely on satellite observations are presented. Additionally, we further develop an existing downscaling technique that enhances the spatial resolution of such products to approximately 11 km. These products are based on internal modules of the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM), an algorithm that uses the radiative transfer equation to link soil moisture, vegetation optical depth and land surface temperature to observed brightness temperatures. The soil moisture product that is independent of any type of ancillary data uses the internally calculated dielectric constant as a soil moisture proxy. This data product is not influenced by errors associated with coarse-scale global soil property maps or by any other type of forcing (e.g. re-analysis) data and is therefore solely based on satellite microwave observations. The second step builds upon recent developments to increase the spatial resolution of the LPRM retrievals using a smoothing filter downscaling method. With this method we can attain a spatial resolution that can be more useful at the scale of local and regional hydrological studies as well. The steps presented in this paper were applied to observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E). The newly derived data sets were validated using ground-based observations from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN). The internally calculated dielectric constant product results in significantly more days with valid retrievals than the original soil moisture data products, in particular over arid regions. The dielectric constant product resulted in similar correlations with in situ data as the original soil moisture data product. Together, these findings demonstrate the usefulness of this new dielectric constant product for the hydrological modeling community and climate studies. A case study on the Australian Fitzroy catchment demonstrated that the downscaled data product has a more detailed spatial description of soil moisture, especially during wet and dry conditions with more pronounced dry and wet regions within the catchment. The increased resolution data products could therefore improve runoff predictions and this study demonstrated the potential added value of a transitioning from a spatial resolution of 56 km toward a higher resolution of 11 km. The hydrological implications of these newly developed data records are not only linked to AMSR-E satellite data, but also to the next generation Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) mission where a 9 km spatial resolution is the target resolution for satellite soil moisture products. The new data products will not replace the current LPRM products, but will be added to the existing array of data products and will become publicly available through our data portals.

spatial↗

NASA NTRS2019

Accelerated Simulation of Air Pollution Using NVIDIA RAPIDS

Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool to study and forecast the impact of air pollution on the environment, vegetation, and human health. However, the numerical simulation of chemical kinetics is computationally expensive due to the stiffness of the system of ordinary differential equations that describes atmospheric chemistry. Here we present an alternative approach to the computation of atmospheric chemistry based on machine learning. Our training data set is produced using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model with GEOS-Chem chemistry, run on the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) Discover supercomputing cluster on 384 Intel Xeon Haswell cores. This model spends more than 50% of total run time on solving atmospheric chemistry. The data set contains as input features the air pollution concentrations before solving the differential equations, together with some key physical parameters such as temperature and sun intensity. As target variables we define the air pollution concentrations after solving the differential equations. Using Dask-cuDF and Dask-XGBoost on the NVIDIA RAPIDS platform on 8 Tesla V100 GPUs, we generate from this training set gradient boosted decision tree models that can reproduce the simulation of chemical kinetics. We do this on the NCCS Advanced Data Analytics Platform (ADAPT) science cloud environment. Our application takes full advantage of recent advances in Dask-XGBoost, such as multi-node and multi-GPU scaling for distributed training with large data sets. The increase in training data size enabled by this is critical to capture the full range of chemical environments encountered across the globe and all annual seasons.The boosted tree models offer good predictability and show many of the features of the full chemistry reference simulation. Further improvements can be achieved through mass balance considerations and by accounting for error correlations. We incorporate the boosted tree models into the GEOS reference model using XGBoost's C API. This enables a seamless integration of the GPU trained models into GEOS-Chem, which is written in Fortran and optimized for use in a massively parallel CPU environment. We show the benefits of this approach and discuss the potential speedup of this machine learning accelerated atmospheric chemistry model.

Keller, Christoph A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Full Implementation of Matrix Approach to Biogeochemistry Module of CLM5

Abstract Earth system models (ESMs) have been rapidly developed in recent decades to advance our understanding of climate change‐carbon cycle feedback. However, those models are massive in coding, require expensive computational resources, and have difficulty in diagnosing their performance. It is highly desirable to develop ESMs with modularity and effective diagnostics. Toward these goals, we implemented a matrix approach to the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) to represent carbon and nitrogen cycles. Specifically, we reorganized 18 balance equations each for carbon and nitrogen cycles among the 18 vegetation pools in the original CLM5 into two matrix equations. Similarly, 140 balance equations each for carbon and nitrogen cycles among the 140 soil pools were reorganized into two additional matrix equations. The vegetation carbon and nitrogen matrix equations are connected to soil matrix equations via litterfall. The matrix equations fully reproduce simulations of carbon and nitrogen dynamics by the original model. The computational cost for forwarding simulation of the CLM5 matrix model was 26% more expensive than the original model, largely due to calculation of additional diagnostic variables, but the spin‐up computational cost was significantly saved. We showed a case study on modeled soil carbon storage under two forcing data sets to illustrate the diagnostic capability that the matrix approach uniquely offers to understand simulation results of global carbon and nitrogen dynamics. The successful implementation of the matrix approach to CLM5, one of the most complex land models, demonstrates that most, if not all, the biogeochemical models can be reorganized into the matrix form to gain high modularity, effective diagnostics, and accelerated spin‐up.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1988

Identification of terrain cover using the optimum polarimetric classifier

A systematic approach for the identification of terrain media such as vegetation canopy, forest, and snow-covered fields is developed using the optimum polarimetric classifier. The covariance matrices for various terrain cover are computed from theoretical models of random medium by evaluating the scattering matrix elements. The optimal classification scheme makes use of a quadratic distance measure and is applied to classify a vegetation canopy consisting of both trees and grass. Experimentally measured data are used to validate the classification scheme. Analytical and Monte Carlo simulated classification errors using the fully polarimetric feature vector are compared with classification based on single features which include the phase difference between the VV and HH polarization returns. It is shown that the full polarimetric results are optimal and provide better classification performance than single feature measurements.

Kong, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Winter Wheat Yield Assessment from Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 Data: Incorporating Surface Reflectance, Through Phenological Fitting, into Regression Yield Models

A combination of Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 offers a high frequency of observations (3–5 days) at moderate spatial resolution (10–30 m), which is essential for crop yield studies. Existing methods traditionally apply vegetation indices (VIs) that incorporate surface reflectances (SRs) in two or more spectral bands into a single variable, and rarely address the incorporation of SRs into empirical regression models of crop yield. In this work, we address these issues by normalizing satellite data (both VIs and SRs) derived from NASA’s Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 (HLS) product, through a phenological fitting. We apply a quadratic function to fit VIs or SRs against accumulated growing degree days (AGDDs), which affects the rate of crop development. The derived phenological metrics for VIs and SRs, namely peak, area under curve (AUC), and fitting coefficients from a quadratic function, were used to build empirical regression winter wheat models at a regional scale in Ukraine for three years, 2016–2018. The best results were achieved for the model with near infrared (NIR) and red spectral bands and derived AUC, constant, linear, and quadratic coefficients of the quadratic model. The best model yielded a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.201 t/ha (5.4%) and coefficient of determination R2 = 0.73 on cross-validation.

phenological fitting↗

NASA NTRS1977

Investigation of Techniques for Inventorying Forested Regions. Volume 1: Reflectance Modeling and Empirical Multispectral Analysis of Forest Canopy Components

The author has identified the following significant results. Effects of vegetation density on overall canopy reflectance differed dramatically, depending on spectral band, base material, and vegetation type. For example, reflectance changes caused by variations in vegetation density were hardly apparant for a simulated burned surface in LANDSAT band 5, while large changes occurred in band 7. When increasing densities of tree overstory were placed over understories, intermediate to dense overstories effectively masked the understories and dominated the spectral signatures. Dramatic changes in reflectance occurred for canopies placed on a number of varying topographic positions. Such changes were seen to result in the spectral overlap of some nonforested with densely forested situations.

Nalepka, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Comparison of manually produced and automated cross country movement maps using digital image processing techniques

The Image-Based Information System (IBIS) was used to automate the cross country movement (CCM) mapping model developed by the Defense Mapping Agency (DMA). Existing terrain factor overlays and a CCM map, produced by DMA for the Fort Lewis, Washington area, were digitized and reformatted into geometrically registered images. Terrain factor data from Slope, Soils, and Vegetation overlays were entered into IBIS, and were then combined utilizing IBIS-programmed equations to implement the DMA CCM model. The resulting IBIS-generated CCM map was then compared with the digitized manually produced map to test similarity. The numbers of pixels comprising each CCM region were compared between the two map images, and percent agreement between each two regional counts was computed. The mean percent agreement equalled 86.21%, with an areally weighted standard deviation of 11.11%. Calculation of Pearson's correlation coefficient yielded +9.997. In some cases, the IBIS-calculated map code differed from the DMA codes: analysis revealed that IBIS had calculated the codes correctly. These highly positive results demonstrate the power and accuracy of IBIS in automating models which synthesize a variety of thematic geographic data.

Wynn, L. K.↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Multi-Scale Sampling Strategy for Detecting Physiologically Significant Signals in AVIRIS Imagery

Models of photosynthetic production at ecosystem and global scales require multiple input parameters specifying physical and physiological surface features. While certain physical parameters (e.g., absorbed photosynthetically active radiation) can be derived from current satellite sensors, other physiologically relevant measures (e.g., vegetation type, water status, carboxylation capacity, or photosynthetic light-use efficiency), are not generally directly available from current satellite sensors at the appropriate geographic scale. Consequently, many model parameters must be assumed or derived from independent sources, often at an inappropriate scale. An abundance of ecophysiological studies at the leaf and canopy scales suggests strong physiological control of vegetation-atmosphere CO2 and water vapor fluxes, particularly in evergreen vegetation subjected to diurnal or seasonal stresses. For example hot, dry conditions can lead to stomatal closure, and associated "downregulation" of photosynthetic biochemical processes, a phenomenon often manifested as a "midday photosynthetic depression". A recent study with the revised simple biosphere (SiB2) model demonstrated that photosynthetic downregulation can significantly impact global climate. However, at the global scale, the exact significance of downregulation remains unclear, largely because appropriate physiological measures are generally unavailable at this scale. Clearly, there is a need to develop reliable ways of extracting physiologically relevant information from remote sensing. Narrow-band spectrometers offer many opportunities for deriving physiological parameters needed for ecosystem and global scale photosynthetic models. Experimental studies on the ground at the leaf- to stand-scale have indicated that several narrow-band features can be used to detect plant physiological status. One physiological signal is caused by xanthophyll cycle pigment activity, and is often expressed as the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI). Because the xanthophyll cycle pigments are photoregulatory pigments closely linked to photosynthetic function, this index can be used to derive relative photosynthetic rates. An additional signal with physiological significance is the 970 nm water absorption band, which provides a measure of liquid water content. This feature has been quantified both using a simple 2-band ratio (900/970 nm, here referred to as the "Water Band Index" or WBI;), and using the "continuum removal" method. Current atmospheric correction methods for AVIRIS imagery also obtain quantitative expressions of surface liquid water absorption based on the 970 nm water band and may be comparable to ground-based estimates of water content using this feature. However, physiological interpretations of both the PRI and the WBI are best understood at the leaf and canopy scales, where complications of atmospheric interference and complex stand and landscape features can be minimized, and where experimental manipulations can be readily applied. Currently it is not known whether these physiological indices can be used to derive meaningful physiological information from AVIRIS imagery. In addition to the problem of atmospheric interference, another challenge is that any simple physiological index can be confounded by multiple factors unrelated to physiology, and this problem can become more severe at progressively larger spatial scales. For example, previous work has suggested that both the PRI and the WBI, are strongly correlated with other optical measures of canopy structure (e.g., the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index or green vegetation fraction), indicating a confounding effect of structure on physiological signals at the larger, landscape scale. Furthermore, the normal operating mode of most imaging spectrometers does not allow simultaneous, ground truthing at a level of detail needed for physiological sampling. Additionally, manipulative experiments of physiology are difficult to apply at a geographic scale suitable for comparison with remote imagery, which often works at spatial scales that are several orders of magnitude larger than those typically used for physiological studies. These limitations require the consideration of alternative approaches to validating physiological information derived from AVIRIS data. In this report, we present a multi-scale sampling approach to detecting physiologically significant signals in narrow-band spectra. This approach explores the multi-dimensional data space provided by narrow-band spectrometry, and combines AVIRIS imagery at a large scale, with ground spectral sampling at an intermediate scale, and detailed ecophysiological measurements at a fine scale, to examine seasonally and spatially changing relationships between multiple structural and physiological variables. Examples of this approach are provided by simultaneous sampling of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an index of fractional PAR interception and green vegetation cover, the Water Band Index (WBI, an index of liquid water absorption, and the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI, an index of xanthophyll cycle pigment activity and photosynthetic light-use efficiency. By directly linking changing optical properties sampled on the ground with measurable physiological states, we hope to develop a basis for interpreting similar signals in AVIRIS imagery.

Gamon, John A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Integrated Instrument Simulator Suites for Earth Science

The NASA Earth Observing System Simulators Suite (NEOS3) is a modular framework of forward simulations tools for remote sensing of Earth's Atmosphere from space. It was initiated as the Instrument Simulator Suite for Atmospheric Remote Sensing (ISSARS) under the NASA Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) program of the Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) to enable science users to perform simulations based on advanced atmospheric and simple land surface models, and to rapidly integrate in a broad framework any experimental or innovative tools that they may have developed in this context. The name was changed to NEOS3 when the project was expanded to include more advanced modeling tools for the surface contributions, accounting for scattering and emission properties of layered surface (e.g., soil moisture, vegetation, snow and ice, subsurface layers). NEOS3 relies on a web-based graphic user interface, and a three-stage processing strategy to generate simulated measurements. The user has full control over a wide range of customizations both in terms of a priori assumptions and in terms of specific solvers or models used to calculate the measured signals.This presentation will demonstrate the general architecture, the configuration procedures and illustrate some sample products and the fundamental interface requirements for modules candidate for integration.

emission↗

NASA NTRS2012

Integrated Instrument Simulator Suites for Earth Science

radiative transfer↗

NASA NTRS2021

Using SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture to Constrain MOD16 Evapotranspiration over the Contiguous USA

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key hydrologic variable linking the Earth’s water, carbon and energy cycles. At large spatial scales, remote sensing-based (RS) models are often used to quantify ET. Despite the large number of RS ET models available, few include soil moisture as a key environmental input, which can degrade model accuracy and utility. Here, we use model assimilation enhanced soil moisture estimates from the NASA SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) mission as a water supply control in the MOD16 ET algorithm framework. SMAP-derived daily surface (0-5cm depth) and root zone (0-1m depth) soil moisture are used with MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) vegetation observations, and 4km gridded regional surface meteorology (Gridmet) as primary inputs for estimating daily ET and underlying model soil and stomatal conductance terms. We calibrated the model environmental response parameters using tower eddy covariance ET observations representing major North American biomes. The model ET results were validated using a holdout set of tower observations spanning a large regional climate gradient. The updated ET estimates outperform the baseline MOD16 product across all tower validation sites (RMSE = 0.758 vs 1.108 mm day-1; R2 = 0.68 vs0.45, respectively). Smaller relative improvements were obtained using a recalibrated model with 4km Gridmet meteorology, but no soil moisture control (RMSE = 0.813 mm day-1; R2 = 0.66), indicating that these changes are essential for the improved model performance. The soil moisture-constrained model improvements and relative benefits from the SMAP observations are greater in arid climates, consistent with stronger soil moisture control on ET in water-limited regions. The use of SMAP soil moisture as an additional model constraint improves MOD16 regional performance and provides a new framework for investigating both soil and atmosphere controls on ET.

SMAP↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optical Properties of Individual Tar Balls in the Free Troposphere

Tar balls are brown carbonaceous particles, highly viscous, spherical, amorphous, and light absorbing. They are believed to form in biomass burning smoke plumes during transport in the troposphere. Tar balls are believed to have a significant impact on the Earth’s radiative balance, but due to poorly characterized optical properties, this impact is highly uncertain. Here, we investigate the chemical composition and optical properties of individual tar balls transported in the free troposphere to the Climate Observatory “Ottavio Vittori” on Mt. Cimone, Italy (2165 meters above sea level) using multi-modal micro-spectroscopy. Our results show that tar balls contributed 50% of carbonaceous particles by number in the size range from 0.25 to 1.8 µm. Of those tar balls, 16% were inhomogeneously mixed with other constituents. Using electron energy loss spectroscopy, we retrieved the complex refractive index from 200 to 1200 nm for both inhomogeneously and homogeneously mixed tar balls. We found no significant difference in the average refractive index of inhomogeneously and homogenously mixed tar balls (1.40 - 0.03i, and 1.36 - 0.03i at 550 nm, respectively). Furthermore, we estimated the top of the atmosphere radiative forcing using the Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer model (SBDART) and found that a layer of only tar balls with an optical depth of 0.1 above vegetation would exert a positive radiative forcing ranging from 2.8 Wm-2 (on a clear sky day) to 9.5 Wm-2 (when clouds are below the aerosol layer). In conclusion, understanding the optical properties of tar balls can help reduce uncertainties associated with the contribution of biomass-burning aerosol in current climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

The PMIP4 Contribution to CMIP6-Part 4: Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum Experiments and PMIP4 Sensitivity Experiments

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when insolation was similar to the present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. The LGM has been a focus for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) since its inception, and thus many of the problems that might be associated with simulating such a radically different climate are well documented. The LGM state provides an ideal case study for evaluating climate model performance because the changes in forcing and temperature between the LGM and pre-industrial are of the same order of magnitude as those projected for the end of the 21st century. Thus, the CMIP6 LGM experiment could provide additional information that can be used to constrain estimates of climate sensitivity. The design of the Tier 1 LGM experiment (lgm) includes an assessment of uncertainties in boundary conditions, in particular through the use of different reconstructions of the ice sheets and of the change in dust forcing. Additional (Tier 2) sensitivity experiments have been designed to quantify feedbacks associated with land-surface changes and aerosol loadings, and to isolate the role of individual forcings. Model analysis and evaluation will capitalize on the relative abundance of paleoenvironmental observations and quantitative climate reconstructions already available for the LGM.

Kageyama, Masa↗

DOE OSTI2022

The global decline in the sensitivity of vegetation productivity to precipitation from 2001 to 2018

The sensitivity of vegetation productivity to precipitation (S ppt ) is a key metric for understanding the variations in vegetation productivity under changing precipitation and predicting future changes in ecosystem functions. However, a comprehensive assessment of S ppt over all the global land is lacking. Here, we investigated spatial patterns and temporal changes of S ppt across the global land from 2001 to 2018 with multiple streams of satellite observations. We found consistent spatial patterns of S ppt with different satellite products: S ppt was highest in dry regions while low in humid regions. Grassland and shrubland showed the highest S ppt , and evergreen needle-leaf forest and wetland showed the lowest. Temporally, S ppt showed a generally declining trend over the past two decades (p < .05), yet with clear spatial heterogeneities. The decline in S ppt was especially noticeable in North America and Europe, likely due to the increase in precipitation. In central Russia and Australia, however, S ppt showed an increasing trend. Biome-wise, most ecosystem types exhibited significant decrease in S ppt , while grassland, evergreen broadleaf forest, and mixed forest showed slight increases or non-significant changes in S ppt . Our finding of the overall decline in S ppt implies a potential stabilization mechanism for ecosystem productivity under climate change. However, the revealed S ppt increase for some regions and ecosystem types, in particular global grasslands, suggests that grasslands might be increasingly vulnerable to climatic variability with continuing global climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Environmental and Socio-Demographic Determinants of Dengue Fever in Colombo City, Sri Lanka

Dengue fever has increased exponentially in Sri Lanka, from 24.4 cases per 100,000 in 2003 to 165.3 per 100,000 population in 2013. Although early warning systems using predictor models have been previously developed in other settings, it is important to develop such models in each local setting. Further, the ability of these models to be applicable at smaller geographic units will enhance current vector control and disease surveillance measures. The aim of this paper was to identify environmental and socio-economic status (SES) risk factors that may predict dengue fever at the Gram Niladhari Divisions (GND) level (smallest administrative unit) in Colombo city, Sri Lanka. These factors included landcover classes, amount of vegetation, population density, water access and neighborhood SES as determined by roof type. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) was used to develop the prediction model. A total 55 GND units covering an area of 37 sq km were investigated. We found that GND units with decreased vegetation, higher built-up area, higher population density and poor access to tap-water supply were associated with high risk of dengue; the pertinent GND units were concentrated in the center of the city. This is the first study in Sri Lanka to include both environmental and socio-demographic factors in prediction models for dengue fever. The methodology may be useful in enhancing ongoing dengue fever control measures in the country, and to be extended to other countries in the region that have an increasing incidence of dengue fever.

Tipre, Meghan↗