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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

Winter precipitation predictability in Central Southwest Asia and its representation in seasonal forecast systems

In Central Southwest Asia (CSWA; 22°N to 40°N and 30°E to 70°E), winter (November to February) precipitation contributes up to 70% of the annual mean, but substantial interannual variations exist. Dynamical models exhibit subpar predictability in this region, but the limits of their skills are not well established. Here, we identify the tropical and extratropical forcings that explain ~75% of area-averaged seasonal variability in CSWA winter precipitation. Tropical forcing comes from the indirect El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pathway, the leading mode of tropical Indian Ocean precipitation variability. This mode is coupled with ENSO-related Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature variability. A direct ENSO influence on CSWA does not extend beyond its Indian Ocean connection. Extratropical forcing comes from a large-scale mode of internal atmospheric variability. The spatial structure, variability of tropical forcing, and teleconnection with CSWA winter precipitation are skillfully depicted in two seasonal forecasting systems: the fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) and Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research (SPEAR). Extratropical forcing’s spatial structure is also produced skillfully in the two modelling systems; however, the representation of its interannual variability and teleconnection requires improvement. While SEAS5 displays skill in representing extratropical forcing influence on CSWA winter precipitation and marginal skill in reproducing interannual variability, SPEAR has negligible ability in both areas. Consequently, these models have limited predictive skills over CSWA in winter. While improvements in representing extratropical forcing may be inherently limited as it arises from internal atmospheric variability, further research is needed to establish its predictability limits fully.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Computer-Aided Parallelizer and Optimizer

The Computer-Aided Parallelizer and Optimizer (CAPO) automates the insertion of compiler directives (see figure) to facilitate parallel processing on Shared Memory Parallel (SMP) machines. While CAPO currently is integrated seamlessly into CAPTools (developed at the University of Greenwich, now marketed as ParaWise), CAPO was independently developed at Ames Research Center as one of the components for the Legacy Code Modernization (LCM) project. The current version takes serial FORTRAN programs, performs interprocedural data dependence analysis, and generates OpenMP directives. Due to the widely supported OpenMP standard, the generated OpenMP codes have the potential to run on a wide range of SMP machines. CAPO relies on accurate interprocedural data dependence information currently provided by CAPTools. Compiler directives are generated through identification of parallel loops in the outermost level, construction of parallel regions around parallel loops and optimization of parallel regions, and insertion of directives with automatic identification of private, reduction, induction, and shared variables. Attempts also have been made to identify potential pipeline parallelism (implemented with point-to-point synchronization). Although directives are generated automatically, user interaction with the tool is still important for producing good parallel codes. A comprehensive graphical user interface is included for users to interact with the parallelization process.

Jin, Haoqiang↗

Downscaled hyper-resolution (400 m) gridded datasets of daily precipitation and temperature (2008–2019) for the East–Taylor subbasin (western United States)

Abstract. High-resolution gridded datasets of meteorological variables are needed in order to resolve fine-scale hydrological gradients in complex mountainous terrain. Across the United States, the highest available spatial resolution of gridded datasets of daily meteorological records is approximately 800 m. This work presents gridded datasets of daily precipitation and mean temperature for the East–Taylor subbasin (in the western United States) covering a 12-year period (2008–2019) at a high spatial resolution (400 m). The datasets are generated using a downscaling framework that uses data-driven models to learn relationships between climate variables and topography. We observe that downscaled datasets of precipitation and mean temperature exhibit smoother spatial gradients (while preserving the spatial variability) when compared to their coarser counterparts. Additionally, we also observe that when downscaled datasets are upscaled to the original resolution (800 m), the mean residual error is almost zero, ensuring no bias when compared with the original data. Furthermore, the downscaled datasets are observed to be linearly related to elevation, which is consistent with the methodology underlying the original 800 m product. Finally, we validate the spatial patterns exhibited by downscaled datasets via an example use case that models lidar-derived estimates of snowpack. The presented dataset constitutes a valuable resource to resolve fine-scale hydrological gradients in the mountainous terrain of the East–Taylor subbasin, which is an important study area in the context of water security for the southwestern United States and Mexico. The dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.15485/1822259 (Mital et al., 2021).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DISCo-microbe: design of an identifiable synthetic community of microbes

Microbiomes are extremely important for their host organisms, providing many vital functions and extending their hosts’ phenotypes. Natural studies of host-associated microbiomes can be difficult to interpret due to the high complexity of microbial communities, which hinders our ability to track and identify individual members along with the many factors that structure or perturb those communities. For this reason, researchers have turned to synthetic or constructed communities in which the identities of all members are known. However, due to the lack of tracking methods and the difficulty of creating a more diverse and identifiable community that can be distinguished through next-generation sequencing, most such in vivo studies have used only a few strains. To address this issue, we developed DISCo-microbe, a program for the design of an identifiable synthetic community of microbes for use in in vivo experimentation. The program is composed of two modules; (1) create, which allows the user to generate a highly diverse community list from an input DNA sequence alignment using a custom nucleotide distance algorithm, and (2) subsample, which subsamples the community list to either represent a number of grouping variables, including taxonomic proportions, or to reach a user-specified maximum number of community members. As an example, we demonstrate the generation of a synthetic microbial community that can be distinguished through amplicon sequencing. The synthetic microbial community in this example consisted of 2,122 members from a starting DNA sequence alignment of 10,000 16S rRNA sequences from the Ribosomal Database Project. We generated simulated Illumina sequencing data from the constructed community and demonstrate that DISCo-microbe is capable of designing diverse communities with members distinguishable by amplicon sequencing. Using the simulated data we were able to recover sequences from between 97–100% of community members using two different post-processing workflows. Furthermore, 97–99% of sequences were assigned to a community member with zero sequences being misidentified. We then subsampled the community list using taxonomic proportions to mimic a natural plant host–associated microbiome, ultimately yielding a diverse community of 784 members. DISCo-microbe can create a highly diverse community list of microbes that can be distinguished through 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and has the ability to subsample (i.e., design) the community for the desired number of members and taxonomic proportions. Although developed for bacteria, the program allows for any alignment input from any taxonomic group, making it broadly applicable. The software and data are freely available from GitHub and Python Package Index (PYPI).

16S rRNA↗

metabCombiner 2.0: Disparate Multi-Dataset Feature Alignment for LC-MS Metabolomics

Liquid chromatography–high-resolution mass spectrometry (LC-HRMS), as applied to untargeted metabolomics, enables the simultaneous detection of thousands of small molecules, generating complex datasets. Alignment is a crucial step in data processing pipelines, whereby LC-MS features derived from common ions are assembled into a unified matrix amenable to further analysis. Variability in the analytical factors that influence liquid chromatography separations complicates data alignment. This is prominent when aligning data acquired in different laboratories, generated using non-identical instruments, or between batches from large-scale studies. Previously, we developed metabCombiner for aligning disparately acquired LC-MS metabolomics datasets. Here, we report significant upgrades to metabCombiner that enable the stepwise alignment of multiple untargeted LC-MS metabolomics datasets, facilitating inter-laboratory reproducibility studies. To accomplish this, a “primary” feature list is used as a template for matching compounds in “target” feature lists. We demonstrate this workflow by aligning four lipidomics datasets from core laboratories generated using each institution’s in-house LC-MS instrumentation and methods. We also introduce batchCombine, an application of the metabCombiner framework for aligning experiments composed of multiple batches. metabCombiner is available as an R package on Github and Bioconductor, along with a new online version implemented as an R Shiny App.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Robust Combined Heat and Hybrid Power (CHHP) for High Electrical Efficiency Cogeneration

Georgia Tech (Prime Recipient), the University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP) and the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) investigated a hybrid fuel cell/ gas turbine system concept as a combined heat and hybrid power (CHHP) system for both robust and high power-to-process heat ratio cogeneration. The novelty of the proposed system entailed the distinct, elevated electrical efficiencies it maintains while simultaneously supporting a broad span of heating needs (e.g., supply temperatures) demanded across variable heat loads. The scope included: 1) leveraging a pioneering national lab facility configured for dynamic system operability development of hybrid fuel cell/gas turbine cycles; 2) enabling technology development to adjust and modulate the quality and quantity of thermal supply to bottoming heat loads via novel extreme temperature gas bypass valves. Hybrid fuel cell/gas turbine systems have primarily been reduced-to-practice in a constrained (e.g., initial proof-of-concept) manner and have still demonstrated considerable electrical efficiencies. However, these pre-pilot systems have focused upon electrical efficiencies and electrical power generation as the exclusive energy demand. Such hybrid systems had not been extensively researched or developed for flexible and variable operation consisting of both power and heat demands; however, these variable combined power and heat demands are characteristic of many types of manufacturers such as animal/poultry processing, bakeries and milk/flour/pastry manufacturing, textile mills, and electrochemical processing. Commercially, developing the system into a working combined heat and power system benefits these types of manufacturers by allowing them to meet their power and heat demands at a lower cost, higher efficiency, and/or through onsite generation. Therefore, the technical scope of this project was largely to study and facilitate these hybrid systems as combined heat and hybrid power (CHHP) systems that include dynamic operability for variable heat and power loads and/or grid dynamics for various types of manufacturers. Simulation results were used to predict the performance of the CHHP system and conceptually develop it to achieve desired dynamic operability. Experimentally, the primary goal was to design, manufacture, and experiment upon a high-temperature bypass valve. Experimental data included air mass flow rates through the valve orifice when the valve was changed to variable extent between fully closed and fully open. The experimental data was then used to create a semi-empirical computational model of the bypass valve. Concluded simulation goals for the research included developing computational heat exchanger models for the hybrid system inclusive of the bottoming heat exchanger and the recuperative heat exchanger, and then combining the computational recuperator model with the computational valve model. Afterwards, the computational models were then integrated to predict the dynamic operation of hybrid fuel cell/gas turbine cycles throughout a design space and reporting such. The scope stated in the preceding paragraph was packaged into five specific goals: 1) enabling the simulation of dynamic combined heat and power through the creation of computational, modular heat exchanger models; 2) simulation and exploration of the CHHP system’s performance by integrating the heat exchanger models with the national lab’s pre-existing hybrid system (computational) simulation, but without the recuperator bypass valve concept in order to initially determine how the (baseline) system behaves and can be controlled in order to meet variable heat and power demands; 3) development and initial deployment of the high-temperature recuperator bypass valve technology in order to confirm and characterize the approach; 4) usage of the experimental data for the valve to create a semi-empirical computational model for the bypass valve which could then be combined with the heat exchanger computational models; 5) repeat of the second task of simulating and exploring the system’s performance, but this time including the bypass valve to resolve its efficacy. Tasks were successfully completed, and the general notion of flexibly operating, high electrical efficiency CHHP was further corroborated. Supportive details are provided in the report.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Operating Dynamic Reserve Dimensioning Using Probabilistic Forecasts

The rapid integration of variable energy sources (VRES) into power grids increases variability and uncertainty of the net demand, making the power system operation challenging. Operating reserve is used by system operators to manage and hedge against such variability and uncertainty. Traditionally, reserve requirements are determined by rules-of-thumb (static reserve requirements, e.g., NERC Reliability Standards), and more recently, dynamic reserve requirements from tools and methods which are in the adoption process (e.g., DynADOR, DRD, and RESERVE, among others). While these methods/tools significantly improve the static rule-of-thumb approaches, they rely exclusively on deterministic data (i.e., best guess only). Consequently, these methods disregard the probabilistic uncertainty thresholds associated with specific days and their weather conditions (i.e., best guess plus probabilistic uncertainty). This work presents practical approaches to determine the operating reserve requirements leveraging the wealth information from probabilistic forecasts. Proposed approaches are validated and tested using actual data from the CAISO system. Furthermore, results show the benefits in terms of risk reduction of considering the probabilistic forecast information into the dimensioning process of operating reserve requirements.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Spin-piston problem for a ferromagnetic thin film: Shock waves and solitons

In this report the unsteady, nonlinear magnetization dynamics induced by spin injection in an easy-plane ferromagnetic channel subject to an external magnetic field are studied analytically. Leveraging a dispersive hydrodynamic description, the Landau-Lifshitz equation is recast in terms of hydrodynamic-like variables for the magnetization's perpendicular component (spin density) and azimuthal phase gradient (fluid velocity). Spin injection acts as a moving piston that generates nonlinear, dynamical spin textures in the ferromagnetic channel with downstream quiescent spin density set by the external field. In contrast to the classical problem of a piston accelerating a compressible gas, here, variable spin injection and field lead to a rich variety of nonlinear wave phenomena from oscillatory spin shocks to solitons and rarefaction (expansion) waves. A full classification of solutions is provided using nonlinear wave modulation theory by identifying two key aspects of the fluid-like dynamics: subsonic/supersonic conditions and convex/nonconvex hydrodynamic flux. Familiar waveforms from the classical piston problem such as rarefaction waves and shocks manifest in their spin-based counterparts as smooth and highly oscillatory transitions, respectively, between two distinct magnetic states. The spin shock is an example of a dispersive shock wave, which arises in many physical systems. New features without a gas dynamics counterpart include composite wave complexes with “contact” spin shocks and rarefactions. Magnetic supersonic conditions lead to two pronounced piston edge behaviors including a stationary soliton and an oscillatory wave train. These coherent wave structures have physical implications for the generation of high frequency spin waves from pulsed injection and persistent, stable stationary and/or propagating solitons in the presence of magnetic damping. The analytical results are favorably compared with numerical simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Assimilation of Satellite Altimeter Data With a Four Dimensional Model of the Japan Sea

A data assimilation is carried out to detect the variability of the Japan Sea circulation in the range from a few days to several years and from eddy to basin scale. The model applied in this study is the same 1/6 degree GFDL MOM1 as Kim and Yoon (1999) but is driven by ECMWF daily wind stress, heat and fresh water fluxes. The satellite altimeter data of TOPEX/POSEIDON, ERS-1 (phase C and G) and -2 are assimilated by an approximate Kalman filter (Fukumori and M.Rizzoli, 1995). The approximation is made by seeking an asymptotic steady error covariance matrix (Fukumori et al., 1993) and by introducing a coarser grid model for the innovation (data-model misfit). The coarse grid model is defined on 1/2 degree horizontal resolution and consists of the barotropic stream function, first baroclinic displacement and velocity amplitudes. The assimilated estimates explain about 6cm sea level variability of the data (approximately 12cm in the southern part), which is much larger than the previous reduced-gravity model and TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data assimilation (Hirose et al., 1999). The impacts of the T/P and ERS data on the filtered estimates are comparable. The result also shows high correlation to subsurface water temperatures measured by CTD. Many of the mesoscale eddies/disturbances travel east-northeastward with the advection speed of 1-3cm/s though most of them generated in the western region can not pass over the Oki Spur. The quasi-biennial variability found by Hirose and Ostrovskii (1999) did not show clear propagation pattern. The shallow Oki Spur may work as a "western boundary" to this signal. This is more plausible estimation than by the R-G model which has no bottom topography.

Hirose, Naoki↗

Effects of geometric and flow-field variables on inverted-velocity-profile coaxial jet noise and source distributions

This paper presents relationships between the noise generation characteristics and the flow-field characteristics for inverted-velocity-profile coaxial jets. Noise measurements were made at four different sideline distances in order to determine the apparent noise source locations, and flow-field characteristics were determined from jet plume pressure/temperature surveys. These relationships are based on a published NASA Lewis prediction model, the basic assumptions of which are shown to be consistent with the experimental data reported herein. Improvements to the noise prediction procedure, on the basis of the present study, are included, which increase the accuracy of the high-frequency noise prediction.

Stone, J. R.↗

Computation of Turbulent Wake Flows in Variable Pressure Gradient

Transport aircraft performance is strongly influenced by the effectiveness of high-lift systems. Developing wakes generated by the airfoil elements are subjected to strong pressure gradients and can thicken very rapidly, limiting maximum lift. This paper focuses on the effects of various pressure gradients on developing symmetric wakes and on the ability of a linear eddy viscosity model and a non-linear explicit algebraic stress model to accurately predict their downstream evolution. In order to reduce the uncertainties arising from numerical issues when assessing the performance of turbulence models, three different numerical codes with the same turbulence models are used. Results are compared to available experimental data to assess the accuracy of the computational results.

Duquesne, N.↗

Charting Hydropower's Role in the Next-Generation Grid

To build a 100% clean energy power sector, the United States is adding more energy storage and variable renewable energy sources, like solar power and wind energy, to the grid. Hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) can help with both. These technologies already play a key role in providing flexible, low-carbon electricity to the U.S. power grid, and this role will become even more valuable as that grid evolves. That's why researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are analyzing how the U.S. electricity sector could invest in hydropower and PSH using new data and modeling capabilities.

HYDRO ENERGY↗

Addressing Market Issues in Electrical Power Systems with Large Shares of Variable Renewable Energy

This paper reports recent findings from IEA Wind TCP Task 25, which compiles international experiences and research related to large-scale integration of wind and other renewable energy. In the paper, we address the main challenges for market integration of variable renewable energy, relating to price formation, cost recovery, balancing and other grid services. The paper gives an overview of recent scenario studies on electricity price impacts of (1) various generation, energy storage and demand types in different markets, and (2) different market designs and energy/climate policies. Studying markets with very high shares of variable renewable energy requires an improved set of analysis tools for forecasting market outcomes, estimating flexibility needs and sources, and assessing resource adequacy. Key market features need to be investigated within these improved analytical capabilities for systems transitioning to high shares of variable renewable energy, storage and flexible demand. System services that can be supported by markets will likely need to be revisited. Finally, this paper identifies open questions and suggested future market design work for supporting systems with very high shares of variable renewable energy, which are to be addressed in follow-up work of Task 25 collaborative research.

cost recovery↗

Refining fast calorimeter simulations with a Schrödinger Bridge

Machine learning-based simulations, especially calorimeter simulations, are promising tools for approximating the precision of classical high energy physics simulations with a fraction of the generation time. Nearly all methods proposed so far learn neural networks that map a random variable with a known probability density, like a Gaussian, to realistic-looking events. In many cases, physics events are not close to Gaussian and so these neural networks have to learn a highly complex function. We study an alternative approach: Schrödinger bridge Quality Improvement via Refinement of Existing Lightweight Simulations (SQuIRELS). SQuIRELS leverages the power of diffusion-based neural networks and Schrödinger bridges to map between samples where the probability density is not known explicitly. We apply SQuIRELS to the task of refining a classical fast simulation to approximate a full classical simulation. On simulated calorimeter events, we find that SQuIRELS is able to reproduce highly non-trivial features of the full simulation with a fraction of the generation time.

Calorimeter methods↗

Planetary Boundary Layer Height from AIRS and MERRA-2 Products at NASA GES DISC, and Insights from Data Intercomparison

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is the hyperspectral infrared sounder onboard NASA's Aqua satellite, launched in 2002. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), in collaboration with NASA Sounder Team at JPL, provides processing, archiving, and distribution services for NASA sounders: the Aqua AIRS mission and the subsequent Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) mission. The Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) Height is a new variable added in the AIRS Version 6 support product. It is derived based on gradients of the retrieved atmospheric thermodynamic profile, and gives the pressure at the top of PBL over the ocean. The GES DISC also provides services for the second Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) product generated by the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) data assimilation system. The monthly PBL Height variable has been available in the Giovanni system, which is a Web-based application developed by the GES DISC providing a simple and intuitive way to visualize, analyze, and access vast amounts of Earth science remote sensing data. In this work, we will present the monthly PBL Height data from AIRS and MERRA-2 and the services to support data intercomparison, such as access, plotting, subsetting, re-gridding, and generation of a multi-year monthly mean. We will also show intercomparison results, and evaluate whether (over the ocean) AIRS can observe PBL features similar to the reanalysis product at monthly and longer-term scales.

AIRS↗

Design of Plant Gas Exchange Experiments in a Variable Pressure Growth Chamber

Sustainable human presence in extreme environments such as lunar and martian bases will require bioregenerative components to human life support systems where plants are used for generation of oxygen, food, and water. Reduced atmospheric pressures will be used to minimize mass and engineering requirements. Few studies have assessed the metabolic and developmental responses of plants to reduced pressure and varied oxygen atmospheres. The first tests of hypobaric pressures on plant gas exchange and biomass production at the Johnson Space Center will be initiated in January 1996 in the Variable Pressure Growth Chamber (VPGC), a large, closed plant growth chamber rated for 10.2 psi. Experiments were designed and protocols detailed for two complete growouts each of lettuce and wheat to generate a general database for human life support requirements and to answer questions about plant growth processes in reduced pressure and varied oxygen environments. The central objective of crop growth studies in the VPGC is to determine the influence of reduced pressure and reduced oxygen on the rates of photosynthesis, dark respiration, evapotranspiration and biomass production of lettuce and wheat. Due to the constraint of one experimental unit, internal controls, called pressure transients, will be used to evaluate rates of CO2 uptake, O2 evolution, and H2O generation. Pressure transients will give interpretive power to the results of repeated growouts at both reduced and ambient pressures. Other experiments involve the generation of response functions to partial pressures of O2 and CO2 and to light intensity. Protocol for determining and calculating rates of gas exchange have been detailed. In order to build these databases and implement the necessary treatment combinations in short time periods, specific requirements for gas injections and removals have been defined. A set of system capability checks will include determination of leakage rates conducted prior to the actual crop growouts. Schedules of experimental events for lettuce and wheat are outlined and include replications in time of diurnal routines, pressure transients, variable pO2, pO2/pCO2 ratio, and light intensity responses.

Corey, Kenneth A.↗

Wave resource spatial and temporal variability dependence on WEC size

As the wave energy sector grows and looks to the Blue Economy for commercialization opportunities, there is a distinct and pressing need to clearly understand and quantify the coupled impacts of wave energy converter (WEC) size and wave resource characteristics on the annual energy production, spatial variability and temporal variability. Utilizing generic frequency domain representations of the Oscilla Power Triton WEC and spectral wave conditions at PacWave (Oregon), Los Angeles (California) and WETS (Hawaii), a series of interesting results emerge. Firstly, the ‘optimal’ WEC size, from an energy standpoint, is fundamentally dependent on the frequency distribution of the incoming wave variance density spectrum. Secondly, and from a seasonality perspective, the seasonal WEC energy generation doesn’t necessarily follow the seasonal distribution of gross wave power. Finally, from an hourly power variability perspective, a reduction in WEC size generally decreases variability. However, for each of the locations investigated, there appears to be a WEC size threshold; a threshold where further reducing WEC size results in increased power variability.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Wave Resource Spatial and Temporal Variability Dependence on WEC Size

As the wave energy sector grows and looks to the Blue Economy for commercialization opportunities, there is a distinct and pressing need to clearly understand and quantify the coupled impacts of wave energy converter (WEC) size and wave resource characteristics on the annual energy production, spatial variability and temporal variability. Utilizing generic frequency domain representations of the Oscilla Power Triton WEC and spectral wave conditions at PacWave (Oregon), Los Angeles (California) and WETS (Hawaii), a series of interesting results emerge. Firstly, the 'optimal' WEC size, from an energy standpoint, is fundamentally dependent on the frequency distribution of the incoming wave variance density spectrum. Secondly, and from a seasonality perspective, the seasonal WEC energy generation doesn't necessarily follow the seasonal distribution of gross wave power. Finally, from an hourly power variability perspective, a reduction in WEC size generally decreases variability. However, for each of the locations investigated, there appears to be a WEC size threshold; a threshold where further reducing WEC size results in increased power variability.

blue economy↗