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TBD(exp 3)

When asked by the Aeronautical Engineering staff to design a viable supersonic commercial transport, most of the students were well aware that Boeing, McDonnell Douglas, and other aircraft companies had been studying a cadre of transports for more than 30 years and had yet to present a viable aircraft. In the spirit of aviation progress and with much creative license, the TBD design team spearheaded the problem with the full intention of presenting a marketable high speed civil transport in spring of 1992. The project commenced with various studies of future market demands. With the market expansion of American business overseas, the airline industry projects a boom of over 200 million passengers by the year 2000. This will create a much higher demand for time efficient and cost effective inter-continental travel; this is the challenge of the high speed civil transport. The TBD(exp 3), a 269 passenger, long-range civil transport was designed to cruise at Mach 3.0 utilizing technology predicted to be available in 2005. Unlike other contemporary commercial airplane designs, the TBD(exp 3) incorporates a variable geometry wing for optimum performance. This design characteristic enabled the TBD(exp 3) to be efficient in both subsonic and supersonic flight. The TBD(exp 3) was designed to be economically viable for commercial airline purchase, be comfortable for passengers, meet FAR Part 25, and the current FAR 36 Stage 3 noise requirements. The TBD(exp 3) was designed to exhibit a long service life, maximize safety, ease of maintenance, as well as be fully compatible with all current high-traffic density airport facilities.

Baughan, Jim↗

Integrated analysis and design of thick composite structures for optimal passive damping characteristics

The development of novel composite mechanics for the analysis of damping in composite laminates and structures and the more significant results of this effort are summarized. Laminate mechanics based on piecewise continuous in-plane displacement fields are described that can represent both intralaminar stresses and interlaminar shear stresses and the associated effects on the stiffness and damping characteristics of a composite laminate. Among other features, the mechanics can accurately model the static and damped dynamic response of either thin or thick composite laminates, as well as, specialty laminates with embedded compliant damping layers. The discrete laminate damping theory is further incorporated into structural analysis methods. In this context, an exact semi-analytical method for the simulation of the damped dynamic response of composite plates was developed. A finite element based method and a specialty four-node plate element were also developed for the analysis of composite structures of variable shape and boundary conditions. Numerous evaluations and applications demonstrate the quality and superiority of the mechanics in predicting the damped dynamic characteristics of composite structures. Finally, additional development was focused on the development of optimal tailoring methods for the design of thick composite structures based on the developed analytical capability. Applications on composite plates illustrated the influence of composite mechanics in the optimal design of composites and the potential for significant deviations in the resultant designs when more simplified (classical) laminate theories are used.

Saravanos, D. A.↗

Clouds and Water Vapor in the Climate System: Remotely Piloted Aircraft and Satellites

The objective of this work was to attack unanswered questions that lie at the intersection of radiation, dynamics, chemistry and climate. Considerable emphasis was placed on scientific collaboration and the innovative development of instruments required to address these scientific issues. The specific questions addressed include: Water vapor distribution in the Tropical Troposphere: An understanding of the mechanisms that dictate the distribution of water vapor in the middle-upper troposphere; Atmospheric Radiation: In the spectral region between 200 and 600/cm that encompasses the water vapor rotational and continuum structure, where most of the radiative cooling of the upper troposphere occurs, there is a critical need to test radiative transfer calculations using accurate, spectrally resolved radiance observations of the cold atmosphere obtained simultaneously with in situ species concentrations; Thin Cirrus: Cirrus clouds play a central role in the energy and water budgets of the tropical tropopause region; Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange: Assessment of our ability to predict the behavior of the atmosphere to changes in the boundary conditions defined by thermal, chemical or biological variables; Correlative Science with Satellite Observations: Linking this research to the developing series of EOS observations is critical for scientific progress.

Anderson, James G.↗

Autonomous Aerobraking Using Thermal Response Surface Analysis

Aerobraking is a proven method of significantly increasing the science payload that can be placed into low Mars orbits when compared to an all propulsive capture. However, the aerobraking phase is long and has mission cost and risk implications. The main cost benefit is that aerobraking permits the use of a smaller and cheaper launch vehicle, but additional operational costs are incurred during the long aerobraking phase. Risk is increased due to the repeated thermal loading of spacecraft components and the multiple attitude and propulsive maneuvers required for successful aerobraking. Both the cost and risk burdens can be significantly reduced by automating the aerobraking operations phase. All of the previous Mars orbiter missions that have utilized aerobraking have increasingly relied on onboard calculations during aerobraking. Even though the temperature of spacecraft components has been the limiting factor, operational methods have relied on using a surrogate variable for mission control. This paper describes several methods, based directly on spacecraft component maximum temperature, for autonomously predicting the subsequent aerobraking orbits and prescribing apoapsis propulsive maneuvers to maintain the spacecraft within specified temperature limits. Specifically, this paper describes the use of thermal response surface analysis in predicting the temperature of the spacecraft components and the corresponding uncertainty in this temperature prediction.

Prince, Jill L.↗

Space Weather: What is it, and Why Should a Meteorologist Care?

"Space weather" is a term coined almost 15 years ago to describe environmental conditions ABOVE Earth's atmosphere that affect satellites and astronauts. As society has become more dependent on technology, we nave found that space weather conditions increasingly affect numerous commercial and infrastructure sectors: airline operations, the precision positioning industry, and the electric power grid, to name a few. Similar to meteorology where "weather" often refers to severe conditions, "space weather" includes geomagnetic storms, radiation storms, and radio blackouts. But almost all space weather conditions begin at the Sun--our middle-age, magnetically-variable star. At NASA, the science behind space weather takes place in the Heliophysics Division. The Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, is manned jointly by NCAA and US Air Force personnel, and it provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth. Organizationally, it resides in NOAA's National Weather Service as one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. In this seminar we hope to give the audience a brief introduction to the causes of space weather, discuss some of the effects, and describe the state of the art in forecasting. Our goal is to highlight that meteorologists are increasingly becoming the "first responders" to questions about space weather causes and effects.

SaintCyr, Chris↗

Characterization of Turbulent Latent and Sensible Heat Flux Exchange Between the Atmosphere and Ocean in MERRA

Turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture across the atmosphere-ocean interface are fundamental components of the Earth's energy and water balance. Characterizing both the spatiotemporal variability and the fidelity of these exchanges of heat and moisture is critical to understanding the global water and energy cycle variations, quantifying atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and improving model predictability. This study examines the veracity of the recently completed NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) product with respect to its representation of the surface turbulent heat fluxes. A validation of MERRA turbulent heat fluxes and near-surface bulk variables at local, high-resolution space and time scales is achieved by making comparisons to a large suite of direct observations. Both in situ and satellite-observed gridded surface heat flux estimates are employed to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of the surface fluxes with respect to their annual mean climatologies, their seasonal covariability of near-surface bulk parameters, and their representation of extremes. The impact of data assimilation on the near-surface parameters is assessed through evaluation of incremental analysis update tendencies produced by the assimilation procedure. It is found that MERRA turbulent surface heat fluxes are relatively accurate for typical conditions but have systematically weak vertical gradients in moisture and temperature and have a weaker covariability between the near-surface gradients and wind speed than found in observations. This results in an underestimate of the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes over the western boundary current and storm track regions. The assimilation of observations mostly acts to bring MERRA closer to observational products by increasing moisture and temperature near the surface and decreasing the near-surface wind speeds. The major patterns of spatial and temporal variability of the turbulent heat fluxes produced by MERRA compare favorably to observationally based estimates. However, MERRA is distinct in terms of amplitude. These results suggest that MERRA is likely to be a valuable resource for a number of research applications though, as with all turbulent flux estimates, systematic issues should be taken into account

Robert, J. Brent↗

Characterization of Turbulent Latent and Sensible Heat Flux Exchange Between the Atmosphere and Ocean in MERRA

Turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture across the atmosphere-ocean interface are fundamental components of the Earth s energy and water balance. Characterizing both the spatiotemporal variability and the fidelity of these exchanges of heat and moisture is critical to understanding the global water and energy cycle variations, quantifying atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and improving model predictability. This study examines the veracity of the recently completed NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) product with respect to its representation of the surface turbulent heat fluxes. A validation of MERRA turbulent heat fluxes and near-surface bulk variables at local, high-resolution space and time scales is achieved by making comparisons to a large suite of direct observations. Both in situ and satellite-observed gridded surface heat flux estimates are employed to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of the surface fluxes with respect to their annual mean climatologies, their seasonal covariability of near-surface bulk parameters, and their representation of extremes. The impact of data assimilation on the near-surface parameters is assessed through evaluation of incremental analysis update tendencies produced by the assimilation procedure. It is found that MERRA turbulent surface heat fluxes are relatively accurate for typical conditions but have systematically weak vertical gradients in moisture and temperature and have a weaker covariability between the near-surface gradients and wind speed than found in observations. This results in an underestimate of the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes over the western boundary current and storm track regions. The assimilation of observations mostly acts to bring MERRA closer to observational products by increasing moisture and temperature near the surface and decreasing the near-surface wind speeds. The major patterns of spatial and temporal variability of the turbulent heat fluxes produced by MERRA compare favorably to observationally based estimates. However, MERRA is distinct in terms of amplitude. These results suggest that MERRA is likely to be a valuable resource for a number of research applications though, as with all turbulent flux estimates, systematic issues should be taken into account.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

The Solar Wind in the Outer Heliosphere and Heliosheath

The solar wind environment has a large influence on the transport of cosmic rays. This chapter discusses the observations of the solar wind plasma and magnetic field in the outer heliosphere and the heliosheath. In the supersonic solar wind, interaction regions with large magnetic fields form barriers to cosmic ray transport. This effect, the "CR-B" relationship, has been quantified and is shown to be valid everywhere inside the termination shock (TS). In the heliosheath, this relationship breaks down, perhaps because of a change in the nature of the turbulence. Turbulence is compressive in the heliosheath, whereas it was non-compressive in the solar wind. The plasma pressure in the outer heliosphere is dominated by the pickup ions which gain most of the flow energy at the TS. The heliosheath plasma and magnetic field are highly variable on scales as small as ten minutes. The plasma flow turns away from the nose roughly as predicted, but the radial speeds at Voyager 1 are much less than those at Voyager 2, which is not understood. Despite predictions to the contrary, magnetic reconnection is not an important process in the inner heliosheath with only one observed occurrence to date.

Richardson, J. D.↗

Accelerated Creep Testing of High Strength Aramid Webbing

A series of preliminary accelerated creep tests were performed on four variants of 12K and 24K lbf rated Vectran webbing to help develop an accelerated creep test methodology and analysis capability for high strength aramid webbings. The variants included pristine, aged, folded and stitched samples. This class of webbings is used in the restraint layer of habitable, inflatable space structures, for which the lifetime properties are currently not well characterized. The Stepped Isothermal Method was used to accelerate the creep life of the webbings and a novel stereo photogrammetry system was used to measure the full-field strains. A custom MATLAB code is described, and used to reduce the strain data to produce master creep curves for the test samples. Initial results show good correlation between replicates; however, it is clear that a larger number of samples are needed to build confidence in the consistency of the results. It is noted that local fiber breaks affect the creep response in a similar manner to increasing the load, thus raising the creep rate and reducing the time to creep failure. The stitched webbings produced the highest variance between replicates, due to the combination of higher local stresses and thread-on-fiber damage. Large variability in the strength of the webbings is also shown to have an impact on the range of predicted creep life.

Jones, Thomas C.↗

Estuarine Sediment Deposition during Wetland Restoration: A GIS and Remote Sensing Modeling Approach

Restoration of the industrial salt flats in the San Francisco Bay, California is an ongoing wetland rehabilitation project. Remote sensing maps of suspended sediment concentration, and other GIS predictor variables were used to model sediment deposition within these recently restored ponds. Suspended sediment concentrations were calibrated to reflectance values from Landsat TM 5 and ASTER using three statistical techniques -- linear regression, multivariate regression, and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), to map suspended sediment concentrations. Multivariate and ANN regressions using ASTER proved to be the most accurate methods, yielding r2 values of 0.88 and 0.87, respectively. Predictor variables such as sediment grain size and tidal frequency were used in the Marsh Sedimentation (MARSED) model for predicting deposition rates for three years. MARSED results for a fully restored pond show a root mean square deviation (RMSD) of 66.8 mm (<1) between modeled and field observations. This model was further applied to a pond breached in November 2010 and indicated that the recently breached pond will reach equilibrium levels after 60 months of tidal inundation.

Newcomer, Michelle↗

Fast and Slow Precipitation Responses to Individual Climate Forcers: A PDRMIP Multimodel Study

Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.

environment effects↗

Further Development and Assessment of a Broadband Liner Optimization Process

The utilization of advanced fan designs (including higher bypass ratios) and shorter engine nacelles has highlighted a need for increased fan noise reduction over a broader frequency range. Thus, improved broadband liner designs must account for these constraints and, where applicable, take advantage of advanced manufacturing techniques that have opened new possibilities for novel configurations. This work focuses on the use of an established broadband acoustic liner optimization process to design a variable-depth, multi-degree of freedom liner for a high speed fan. Specifically, in-duct attenuation predictions with a statistical source model are used to obtain optimum impedance spectra over the conditions of interest. The predicted optimum impedance information is then used with acoustic liner modeling tools to design a liner aimed at producing impedance spectra that most closely match the predicted optimum values. The multi-degree of freedom design is carried through design, fabrication, and testing. In-duct attenuation predictions compare well with measured data and the multi-degree of freedom liner is shown to outperform a more conventional liner over a range of flow conditions. These promising results provide further confidence in the design tool, as well as the enhancements made to the overall design process.

Nark, Douglas M.↗

Introduction to Special Collection ``The Exceptional Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex in 2019/2020: Causes and Consequences"

This paper introduces the special collection in Geophysical Research Letters and Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres on the exceptional stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020. Papers in this collection show that the 2019/2020 stratospheric polar vortex was the strongest, most persistent, and coldest on record in the Arctic. The unprecedented Arctic chemical processing and ozone loss in spring 2020 have been studied using numerous satellite and ground-based data sets and chemistry-transport models. Quantitative estimates of chemical loss are broadly consistent among the studies and show profile loss of about the same magnitude as in the Arctic in 2011, but with most loss at lower altitudes; column loss was comparable to or larger than that in 2011. Several papers show evidence of dynamical coupling from the mesosphere down to the surface. Studies of tropospheric influence and impacts link the exceptionally strong vortex to reflection of upward propagating waves and show coupling to tropospheric anomalies, including extreme heat, precipitation, windstorms, and marine cold air outbreaks. Predictability of the exceptional stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020 and related predictability of surface conditions are explored. The exceptionally strong stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020 highlights the extreme interannual variability in the Arctic winter/spring stratosphere and the far-reaching consequences of such extremes.

Artic↗

Calculating Mode Mixity in Interlaminar Fracture of Composite Laminates

To accurately predict delamination under mixed-mode loading, cohesive elements must partition the energies dissipated in Mode I and Mode II correctly. The ability of cohesive models to predict mode mixity was evaluated by performing analyses of the single leg bending (SLB) test, which exhibits a variable mode mixity with crack length. Accordingly, two numerical integration methods were developed to compute the energy partitioning: (i) a local calculation of the accumulated work of tractions at each point along the crack path, and (ii) a global J-integral “snapshot” calculation along a contour around the process zone. In the case of a composite laminate with properties characterized by short fracture process zone (FPZ), the results of these two methods correlate well with each other and with a linear elastic fracture mechanics solution. However, FPZscan be long due to fiber bridging or due to the intrinsic toughness of the material. Then, the results of mode-mixity calculations obtained with various methods vary widely from each other. It is argued that the global J-integral calculation is the most accurate interpretation of the energy release rate and mode mixity for either short or long process zones. This solution will provide a more accurate characterization of resistance curves and mode mixity in experimental results, and it will also guide the development of more accurate mixed-mode cohesive laws for tougher materials characterized by strong R-curve responses, such as thermo-plastic composites.

cohesive zone analysis↗

Prediction of added noise due to the effect of unsteady flow on pusher propellers

An analytical/computational study has been conducted to predict the effect of an upstream wing or pylon on the noise of an operating propeller. The wing trailing edge was placed at variable distances (0.1 and 0.3 chord) upstream of a scaled model propeller (SR-2). The wake was modeled using a similarity formulation. The instantaneous pressure distribution on the propeller blades during the passage through the wake was formulated in terms of a time-dependent variation of each blade section's angle of attack and in terms of the shed vortices from the blade trailing edge. It was found that the final expressions for the unsteady loads considerably altered the radiated noise pattern. Predicted noise for various observer positions, rotational speeds and propeller/pylon distances were computed and are presented in terms of the pressure time history. It has been shown that the positioning of a pylon upstream of a propeller indeed increases the noise. Some comparisons with experimental results are also given.

Takallu, M. A.↗

Added noise due to the effect of an upstream wake on a propeller

An analytical/computational study has been conducted to predict the effect of an upstream wing or pylon on the noise of an operating propeller. The wing trailing edge was placed at variable distances (0.1 and 0.3 chord) upstream of a scaled model propeller (SR-2). The wake was modeled using a similarity formulation. The instantaneous pressure distribution on the propeller blades during the passage through the wake was formulated in terms of a time-dependent variation of each blade section's angle of attack and in terms of the shed vortices from the blade trailing edge. It was found that the final expressions for the unsteady loads considerably altered the radiated noise pattern. Predicted noise for various observer positions, rotational speeds, and propeller/pylon distances were computed and are presented in terms of the pressure time history, harmonics of the Fourier analysis, and overall sound pressure levels (OASPL). The addition of the tangential stress due to skin friction was found to have a damping effect on the acoustic pressure time history and the resulting spectrum of the generated noise. It is shown that the positioning of a pylon upstream of a propeller indeed increases the overall noise.

Takallu, M. A.↗

Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Cognitive Impairment of Rodents Subjected to Space Radiation

INTRODUCTION We use artificial neural networks (ANNs) as an example machine learning (ML) tool to predict the cognitive performance impairment of rats induced by irradiation. The experimental data in the analyses is attentional set-shifting (ATSET) test scores from a rodent model exposed to ≤15 cGy of individual galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) ions: 4He, 28Si, or 56Fe, expected for a Lunar or Mars mission [1]. This work investigates rats at a subject-based level and uses applied dose and performance scores taken before irradiation to predict whether a rat will be impaired when irradiated. The results of this study are significant to crewed space missions as they support the potential of predicting an astronaut’s impairment in a specific task before spaceflight through the implementation of appropriately trained ML tools. METHODS Data used in this work are scores from the ATSET, a multi-stage constrained cognitive flexibility test [2]. Our computational model utilizes the number of attempts to reach the criterion to pass a stage as a behavioral performance measure for rats. We use the post-irradiation scores, generate thresholds from cumulative distribution plots of non-irradiated rats, and calculate the percent of irradiated rats whose scores fall below the threshold to infer how each radiation type/dose affects a population. Rats scoring above the threshold are labeled impaired while the others are non-impaired. We then employ ANNs as a typical ML technique, and use each subject’s individual scores taken before radiation along with the applied dose, to predict their personal susceptibility to cognitive impairment due to space radiation exposure. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION A significant finding is the exhibition of a dose-dependent increasing probability of impairment for 1 to 10 cGy of 28Si or 56Fe in the simple discrimination (SD) stage of the ATSET, and for 1 to 10 cGy of 56Fe in the compound discrimination (CD) stage. On a subject-based level, implementing ML classifiers such as ANNs identifies rats that have a higher tendency for impairment after GCR exposure [1]. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and the precision-recall (PR) curves of the ML models show a better prediction of impairment when 56Fe is the ion in question in both SD (Figure 1) and CD stages. They, however, do not depict impairment due to 4He in SD (Figure 1) and 28Si in CD, suggesting no dose-dependent impairment response in these cases. In this work, “good” prediction pertains to “better-than-random-chance”, due to the limited sample size and the high inter- and intra-individual variabilities in response to brain stimulation paradigms, as applicable to both animals and humans. More behavioral tests and biomarkers should be investigated on the same subjects, to be fed to the ML models to capture the agents responsible for performance alterations of some individuals versus others.

machine learning↗

Machine Learning Models to Predict Cognitive Impairment of Rodents Subjected to Space Radiation

INTRODUCTION We use artificial neural networks (ANNs) as an example machine learning (ML) tool to predict the cognitive performance impairment of rats induced by irradiation. The experimental data in the analyses is attentional set-shifting (ATSET) test scores from a rodent model exposed to ≤15 cGy of individual galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) ions: 4He, 28Si, or 56Fe, expected for a Lunar or Mars mission [1]. This work investigates rats at a subject-based level and uses applied dose and performance scores taken before irradiation to predict whether a rat will be impaired when irradiated. The results of this study are significant to crewed space missions as they support the potential of predicting an astronaut’s impairment in a specific task before spaceflight through the implementation of appropriately trained ML tools. METHODS Data used in this work are scores from the ATSET, a multi-stage constrained cognitive flexibility test [2]. Our computational model utilizes the number of attempts to reach the criterion to pass a stage as a behavioral performance measure for rats. We use the post-irradiation scores, generate thresholds from cumulative distribution plots of non-irradiated rats, and calculate the percent of irradiated rats whose scores fall below the threshold to infer how each radiation type/dose affects a population. Rats scoring above the threshold are labeled impaired while the others are non-impaired. We then employ ANNs as a typical ML technique, and use each subject’s individual scores taken before radiation along with the applied dose, to predict their personal susceptibility to cognitive impairment due to space radiation exposure. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION A significant finding is the exhibition of a dose-dependent increasing probability of impairment for 1 to 10 cGy of 28Si or 56Fe in the simple discrimination (SD) stage of the ATSET, and for 1 to 10 cGy of 56Fe in the compound discrimination (CD) stage. On a subject-based level, implementing ML classifiers such as ANNs identifies rats that have a higher tendency for impairment after GCR exposure [1]. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and the precision-recall (PR) curves of the ML models show a better prediction of impairment when 56Fe is the ion in question in both SD (Figure 1) and CD stages. They, however, do not depict impairment due to 4He in SD (Figure 1) and 28Si in CD, suggesting no dose-dependent impairment response in these cases. In this work, “good” prediction pertains to “better-than-random-chance”, due to the limited sample size and the high inter- and intra-individual variabilities in response to brain stimulation paradigms, as applicable to both animals and humans. More behavioral tests and biomarkers should be investigated on the same subjects, to be fed to the ML models to capture the agents responsible for performance alterations of some individuals versus others.

machine learning↗