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Lunar Exploration Architecture Level Key Drivers and Sensitivities
Strategic level analysis of the integrated behavior of lunar transportation and lunar surface systems architecture options is performed to assess the benefit, viability, affordability, and robustness of system design choices. This analysis employs both deterministic and probabilistic modeling techniques so that the extent of potential future uncertainties associated with each option are properly characterized. The results of these analyses are summarized in a predefined set of high-level Figures of Merit (FOMs) so as to provide senior NASA Constellation Program (CxP) and Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) management with pertinent information to better inform strategic level decision making. The strategic level exploration architecture model is designed to perform analysis at as high a level as possible but still capture those details that have major impacts on system performance. The strategic analysis methodology focuses on integrated performance, affordability, and risk analysis, and captures the linkages and feedbacks between these three areas. Each of these results leads into the determination of the high-level FOMs. This strategic level analysis methodology has been previously applied to Space Shuttle and International Space Station assessments and is now being applied to the development of the Constellation Program point-of-departure lunar architecture. This paper provides an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and the lunar exploration architecture analyses to date. In studying these analysis results, the strategic analysis team has identified and characterized key drivers affecting the integrated architecture behavior. These key drivers include inclusion of a cargo lander, mission rate, mission location, fixed-versus- variable costs/return on investment, and the requirement for probabilistic analysis. Results of sensitivity analysis performed on lunar exploration architecture scenarios are also presented.
Full-polarization millimeter wavelength variability of Sagittarius A * during the 2018 EHT campaign
Context. Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), the supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, provides a unique laboratory to study accretion dynamics and plasma processes near the event horizon. Aims. We investigated the variability and polarization properties of Sgr A* using ALMA observations during the 2018 Event Horizon Telescope campaign. Methods. We analyzed high-cadence full-polarization light curves from ALMA at millimeter wavelengths, performed time-series analysis, and investigated the temporal behavior during an X-ray flare observed by Chandra on 2018 April 24. The variability characteristics are compared with expectations from standard accretion flow models. Results. We find low variability in total intensity (σ/μ < 10%), but significantly higher variability in linear and circular polarization (∼30% and ∼50%, respectively). A time-series analysis reveals red-noise variability, with power spectral densities between −2 and −3 across all Stokes parameters. Polarized intensity shows stable intra-day timescales, while total intensity exhibits more variable timescales, suggesting distinct emission regions, with polarization likely arising from a coherent structure. On April 24, a statistically significant inter-band delay in polarized intensity coincides with a near-simultaneous X-ray and millimeter peak that deviates from the typical delayed flare scenario. This event also features enhanced millimeter variability and coherent polarization loop evolution. The observed simultaneity challenges standard models of transient synchrotron emission with cooling delays, favoring instead a scenario of continuous energy injection in an optically thin region. Conclusions. Our results offer new constraints on the physical mechanisms driving variability in Sgr A*, and provide key observational input for refining theoretical models of accretion and plasma behavior in the vicinity of supermassive black holes.
Long-Term Ozone Variability and Trends from Reanalyses: Can It Be Done?
Stratospheric ozone concentrations have begun to show early signs of recovery following the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments as well as in response to decreasing upper-stratospheric temperatures. Secular trends in stratospheric ozone are modulated by considerable interannual variability and systematic changes in transport patterns that are expected under increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, especially in the lower stratosphere. These factors necessitate the continued close monitoring of stratospheric ozone in upcoming decades, with a special focus on the lower stratosphere.As highly resolved data sets combining a plethora of observations with model simulations atmospheric reanalyses are, in principle, well suited for the task. All major reanalyses generate ozone output. However, significant spurious discontinuities that arise from step changes in the observing systems prevent a straightforward analysis of ozone trends and long-term variability. Building on our recent work, in this presentation we will demonstrate that trend detection is nonetheless possible using the ozone record from NASA's MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) reanalysis bias-corrected using a chemistry model simulation as a transfer function. Next, we will outline several strategies to reduce artificial discontinuities in the ozone record in future NASA reanalyses. This discussion will be illustrated by an example of joint assimilation of bias-corrected ozone profiles from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite (2004 to present) and the Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS-LP) sensors that are expected to operate on future NOAA platforms.
Multiwavelength Variability of Sagittarius A* in 2019 July
We report a timing analysis of near-infrared (NIR), X-ray, and submillimeter data during a 3 day coordinated campaign observing Sagittarius A* . Data were collected at 4.5 μm with the Spitzer Space Telescope, 2–8 keV with the Chandra X-ray Observatory, 3–70 keV with NuSTAR, 340 GHz with ALMA, and 2.2 μm with the GRAVITY instrument on the Very Large Telescope Interferometer. Two dates show moderate variability with no significant lags between the submillimeter and the infrared at 99% confidence. A moderately bright NIR flare (FK ∼ 15 mJy) was captured on July 18 simultaneous with an X-ray flare (F2−10 keV ∼ 0.1 counts s−1 ) that most likely preceded bright submillimeter flux (F340 GHz ∼ 5.5 Jy) by about + - + 34 33 14 minutes at 99% confidence. The uncertainty in this lag is dominated by the fact that we did not observe the peak of the submillimeter emission. A synchrotron source cooled through adiabatic expansion can describe a rise in the submillimeter once the synchrotron self-Compton NIR and X-ray peaks have faded. This model predicts high GHz and THz fluxes at the time of the NIR/X-ray peak and electron densities well above those implied from average accretion rates for Sgr A* . However, the higher electron density postulated in this scenario would be in agreement with the idea that 2019 was an extraordinary epoch with a heightened accretion rate. Since the NIR and X-ray peaks can also be fit by a nonthermal synchrotron source with lower electron densities, we cannot rule out an unrelated chance coincidence of this bright submillimeter flare with the NIR/X-ray emission.
Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Data Assimilation Using NASA GEOS: Estimation of Air-Sea Interface State Variables
Air-sea interface variables, such as the skin Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are essential for atmosphere-ocean coupling. In the NASA GMAO Data Assimilation System (DAS), the skin SST and 3-D atmospheric state are jointly estimated [1]. This presentation is focused on the prior or background error covariance that is used in this analysis. The GEOS DAS uses an ensemble-variational assimilation strategy. In that, specification of a climatological background (CB) error covariance for SST relies on the NOAA's OI SST, with estimates of standard deviation and correlation length scales based on weekly analyses of the bulk SST at 1 degree resolution. However, present analysis system is striving to resolve SST diurnal variability with six hourly analyses and assimilates a vast number of in-situ and satellite observations. The first part of this presentation re-derives the CB error covariance using OSTIA SST analyses and illustrates the impact of this update on assimilating satellite observations. In a hybrid assimilation system the CB error covariances are appended with a flow-dependent background error covariance estimate implied by the underlying ensemble. The second part of this presentation refers to: a. treatment of the skin SST in the ensemble members, b. corresponding ensemble spread, and c. impact of these additions on the data assimilation system. [1] S. Akella, et al. (2017), doi:10.1002/qj.2988
A rotor optimization using regression analysis
The design and development of helicopter rotors is subject to the many design variables and their interactions that effect rotor operation. Until recently, selection of rotor design variables to achieve specified rotor operational qualities has been a costly, time consuming, repetitive task. For the past several years, Kaman Aerospace Corporation has successfully applied multiple linear regression analysis, coupled with optimization and sensitivity procedures, in the analytical design of rotor systems. It is concluded that approximating equations can be developed rapidly for a multiplicity of objective and constraint functions and optimizations can be performed in a rapid and cost effective manner; the number and/or range of design variables can be increased by expanding the data base and developing approximating functions to reflect the expanded design space; the order of the approximating equations can be expanded easily to improve correlation between analyzer results and the approximating equations; gradients of the approximating equations can be calculated easily and these gradients are smooth functions reducing the risk of numerical problems in the optimization; the use of approximating functions allows the problem to be started easily and rapidly from various initial designs to enhance the probability of finding a global optimum; and the approximating equations are independent of the analysis or optimization codes used.
Why Is Rainfall Error Analysis Requisite for Data Assimilation and Climate Modeling?
Given the large temporal and spatial variability of precipitation processes, errors in rainfall observations are difficult to quantify yet crucial to making effective use of rainfall data for improving atmospheric analysis, weather forecasting, and climate modeling. We highlight the need for developing a quantitative understanding of systematic and random errors in precipitation observations by examining explicit examples of how each type of errors can affect forecasts and analyses in global data assimilation. We characterize the error information needed from the precipitation measurement community and how it may be used to improve data usage within the general framework of analysis techniques, as well as accuracy requirements from the perspective of climate modeling and global data assimilation.
Leveraging Extremal Dependence to Better Characterize the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave
Abstract In late June, 2021, a devastating heatwave affected the US Pacific Northwest and western Canada, breaking numerous all-time temperature records by large margins and directly causing hundreds of fatalities. The observed 2021 daily maximum temperature across much of the U.S. Pacific Northwest exceeded upper bound estimates obtained from single-station temperature records even after accounting for anthropogenic climate change, meaning that the event could not have been predicted under standard univariate extreme value analysis assumptions. In this work, we utilize a flexible spatial extremes model that considers all stations across the Pacific Northwest domain and accounts for the fact that many stations simultaneously experience extreme temperatures. Our analysis incorporates the effects of anthropogenic forcing and natural climate variability in order to better characterize time-varying changes in the distribution of daily temperature extremes. We show that greenhouse gas forcing, drought conditions and large-scale atmospheric modes of variability all have significant impact on summertime maximum temperatures in this region. Our model represents a significant improvement over corresponding single-station analysis, and our posterior medians of the upper bounds are able to anticipate more than 96% of the observed 2021 high station temperatures after properly accounting for extremal dependence. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.
Establishing ZIF‐8 as a reference material for hydrogen cryoadsorption: An interlaboratory study
Abstract Hydrogen storage by cryoadsorption on porous materials has the advantages of low material cost, safety, fast kinetics, and high cyclic stability. The further development of this technology requires reliable data on the H 2 uptake of the adsorbents, however, even for activated carbons the values between different laboratories show sometimes large discrepancies. So far no reference material for hydrogen cryoadsorption is available. The metal‐organic framework ZIF‐8 is an ideal material possessing high thermal, chemical, and mechanical stability that reduces degradation during handling and activation. Here, we distributed ZIF‐8 pellets synthesized by extrusion to 9 laboratories equipped with 15 different experimental setups including gravimetric and volumetric analyzers. The gravimetric H 2 uptake of the pellets was measured at 77 K and up to 100 bar showing a high reproducibility between the different laboratories, with a small relative standard deviation of 3–4 % between pressures of 10–100 bar. The effect of operating variables like the amount of sample or analysis temperature was evaluated, remarking the calibration of devices and other correction procedures as the most significant deviation sources. Overall, the reproducible hydrogen cryoadsorption measurements indicate the robustness of the ZIF‐8 pellets, which we want to propose as a reference material.
Quantification of Brønsted Acid Sites in Zeolites by Water Desorption Thermogravimetry
The many studies that have been conducted on water adsorption on zeolites were carried out in “adsorption” mode, from adsorption isotherms or single-point measurements, with the samples being first degassed at high temperature, and then exposed to water vapor at variable partial pressure. Here, we report Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) studies of HZSM-5 saturated with water at room temperature, thus studying water adsorption in “desorption” mode. In this work, TGA was used to ascertain the amount of water remaining as a function of the pretreatment temperature, and to identify the temperature at which one water molecule per framework Al atom persists. Solid-state 1H NMR spectroscopy, combined with molecular modeling, provided evidence for water molecules hydrogen bonded to Brønsted acid sites and formation of oxonium species for distinct water per framework Al atom. TGA is shown to be a simple and expeditious technique to measure the number of Brønsted acid sites in aluminosilicate zeolites, with advantages over the traditional methods of IR or TPD of dangerous adsorbed ammonia or pyridine. TGA of adsorbed water also provides information on the water clusters formed at the acid sites of HZSM-5, which are proportional to the number of acid sites.
Sensitivity analysis of a layered piezoelectric system using ZFEM
The complex variable finite element method (ZFEM) is a numerical technique which aims to find the partial derivatives of the independent variables with respect to variation in dependent parameters declared in the physics. This is done by combining the complex Taylor series expansion within the weak formulation of the governing equation in a coupled system of linear equations forming a complex valued block matrix given by the Cauchy–Riemann matrix representation. In this work, two-dimensional linear first-order elements have been implemented in ZFEM to predict the design derivatives of the mechanical displacement field and the voltage potential field for a layered piezoelectric system in a steady-state study with Dirichlet boundary condition applied at the top and bottom edges of the geometry. This approach allows the standard FEM solution to quantify the sensitivity of the mechanical displacement and voltage potential fields with respect to small variations in the material properties through the information obtained from the computation of the derivatives. The domain is formed by a layered body with PZT-4 and PZT-5 stacked together. For result verification, the numerical solution obtained with ZFEM was compared to results from a commercial FEM package and the solution from the imaginary part was compared to the exact solution of a well-known benchmark problem. In conclusion, comparison of the results showed good agreement for both the real and imaginary parts of the solution and the largest sensitivities were found in PZT-5 specifically in C 13 , C 33 , and ε 33 .
Effects of trunk injection with emamectin benzoate on arthropod diversity
Abstract BACKGROUND Pine wood nematode is a major plant quarantine object in the world. Trunk injection is an effective method for controlling pests that cause disease. To evaluate the ecological safety of trunk injection with emamectin benzoates in forests of Pinus massoniana , the community diversity and community composition of soil arthropods and flying insects (Hymenoptera) were studied at different stages of trunk injection. RESULTS The dominant taxonomic groups of soil arthropods were Collembola (30.80%), Insecta (26.42%), and Arachnida (23.84%). The taxonomic groups of flying insects (Hymenoptera) were Ichneumonidae (48.94%), Formicidae (14.10%), and Braconidae (8.44%). Trunk injection with emamectin benzoate has no significant effect on the community diversity indices of total soil arthropods and flying insects (Hymenoptera). However, it has a significant effect on the community diversity indices of detritivores for soil arthropods. It changed the community composition of soil arthropods but did not impact the community composition of flying insects (Hymenoptera). Redundancy analysis of arthropod community structure and environmental variables showed that total potassium, residual of green leaf, and residual of litter leaf have a significant impact on the community structure of soil arthropods, and total phosphorus, total nitrogen, water content, organic matter, and total potassium have a significant impact on the community structure of flying insects (Hymenoptera). CONCLUSION Trunk injection with emamectin benzoate is safe for the ecological environment. This study provides a new insight into the field for the prevention and control of pine wood nematode disease, which is of great significance to forest management and pest control. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.
Non-mercury methylating microbial taxa are integral to understanding links between mercury methylation and elemental cycles in marine and freshwater sediments
The goal of this study was to explore the role of non-mercury (Hg) methylating taxa in mercury methylation and to identify potential links between elemental cycles and Hg methylation. Statistical approaches were utilized to investigate the microbial community and biochemical functions in relation to methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations in marine and freshwater sediments. Sediments were collected from the methylation zone (top 15 cm) in four Hg-contaminated sites. Both abiotic (e.g., sulfate, sulfide, iron, salinity, total organic matter, etc.) and biotic factors (e.g., hgcA, abundances of methylating and non-methylating taxa) were quantified. Random forest and stepwise regression were performed to assess whether non-methylating taxa were significantly associated with MeHg concentration. Co-occurrence and functional network analyses were constructed to explore associations between taxa by examining microbial community structure, composition, and biochemical functions across sites. Regression analysis showed that approximately 80% of the variability in sediment MeHg concentration was predicted by total mercury concentration, the abundances of Hg methylating taxa, and the abundances of the non-Hg methylating taxa. The co-occurrence networks identified Paludibacteraceae and Syntrophorhabdaceae as keystone non Hg methylating taxa in multiple sites, indicating the potential for syntrophic interactions with Hg methylators. Strong associations were also observed between methanogens and sulfate-reducing bacteria, which were likely symbiotic associations. The functional network results suggested that non-Hg methylating taxa play important roles in sulfur respiration, nitrogen respiration, and the carbon metabolism-related functions methylotrophy, methanotrophy, and chemoheterotrophy. Interestingly, keystone functions varied by site and did not involve carbon- and sulfur-related functions only. In conclusion, our findings highlight associations between methylating and non-methylating taxa and sulfur, carbon, and nitrogen cycles in sediment methylation zones, with implications for predicting and understanding the impact of climate and land/sea use changes on Hg methylation.
Characterizing vertical upper ocean temperature structures in the European Arctic through unsupervised machine learning
In-situ observations of subsurface ocean temperatures are, in many regions, inconsistently distributed in time and space. These spatio-temporal inconsistencies in the observational network lead to difficulties in utilizing those observations effectively for ocean model evaluation or understanding larger-scale ocean characteristics. Model accuracy of subsurface ocean characteristics is especially important within regions that contain complex ocean structures. One such region is the European Arctic which not only contains several types of water masses with unique characteristics, but also wintertime sea ice coverage and complex bathymetry. This study presents an unsupervised neural networking technique that can be used in combination with traditional ocean model evaluation techniques to provide additional information on the accuracy of modeled vertical ocean temperature profiles. Self-organizing maps is an unsupervised machine learning technique that we apply to approximately twenty thousand Argo and CTD temperature profiles from 2012 to 2020 in the European Arctic to categorize the observed vertical ocean temperature structures in the top 150 m. The observed ocean profile categories, or neurons, defined by the self-organizing map show strong spatial and temporal dependencies. We then use the neuron weights, or the learned temperature profile structure of each neuron, to validate the spatial and temporal variability of modeled vertical temperature structures. This analysis gives us new insights about the model’s capabilities to reproduce specific vertical structures of the top-most ocean layer within different regions and seasons. Mapping modeled ocean temperature profiles onto the neuron-space of the observationally-defined self organized map highlights the potential of this method to advance our understanding of model deficiencies in that region.
Assessing CLUBB PDF Closure Assumptions for a Continental Shallow-to-Deep Convective Transition Case Over Multiple Spatial Scales
Assumed-PDF (probability density function) higher-order turbulence closures (APHOCs) are now widely used for parameterizing boundary layer turbulence and shallow convection in Earth system models (ESMs). A better understanding of the resolution-dependent behavior of APHOCs is essential for improving the performance of next-generation ESMs with intended horizontal resolutions finer than 10 km. In this study, we evaluate the PDF family of Analytic double-Gaussian 1 implemented in Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals (CLUBB) over a range of spatial scales (Dx) from 2 to 100 km. A 120-km-wide large eddy simulation (LES) for a continental convection case during 2016 Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign serves as benchmark to evaluate the PDF closure using an off-line approach. We find during the shallow convection period, the CLUBB PDF closure tends to produce positive biases of cloud properties and liquid water flux near cloud base for all scales of analysis. It produces negative biases for these variables near cloud top that are more severe for Dx larger than 25 km. Results show that replacing the CLUBB-parameterized moisture and temperature skewnesses with LES-derived ones can fix most of the biases if clipping of input moments is allowed to prevent the occurrence of unrealizable solutions. Overall, the performance of the PDF closure is better for smaller Dx = 2–5 km than for larger Dx = 50–100 km; for a given grid spacing, it is better when the convective clouds become deeper in the late afternoon. Likely causes for the resolution dependence and implications for improving the PDF closure are discussed.
Examination of Radiation Belt Dynamics During Substorm Clusters: Activity Drivers and Dependencies of Trapped Flux Enhancements
Here, dynamical variations of radiation belt trapped electron fluxes are examined to better understand the variability of enhancements linked to substorm clusters. Analysis is undertaken using the Substorm Onsets and Phases from Indices of the Electrojet substorm cluster algorithm for event detection. Observations from low earth orbit are complemented by additional measurements from medium earth orbit to allow a major expansion in the energy range considered, from medium energy energetic electrons up to ultra-relativistic electrons. The number of substorms identified inside a cluster does not depend strongly on solar wind drivers or geomagnetic indices either before, during, or after the cluster start time. Clusters of substorms linked to moderate (100 nT < AE ≤ 300 nT) or strong AE (AE ≥ 300 nT) disturbances are associated with radiation belt flux enhancements, including up to ultra-relativistic energies by the strongest substorms (as measured by strong southward Bz and high AE). These clusters reliably occur during times of high speed solar winds streams with associated increased magnetospheric convection. However, substorm clusters associated with quiet AE disturbances (AE ≤ 100 nT) lead to no significant chorus whistler mode intensity enhancements, or increases in energetic, relativistic, or ultra-relativistic electron flux in the outer radiation belts. In these cases the solar wind speed is low, and the geomagnetic Kp index indicates a lack of magnetospheric convection. Our study clearly indicates that clusters of substorms occurring outside of high speed wind streams are not by themselves sufficient to drive acceleration, which may be due to the lack of pre-cluster convection.
Extension of Large Fire Emissions From Summer to Autumn and Its Drivers in the Western US
Abstract Burned areas in the western US have increased ten‐fold since 1980s, which are attributable to multiple factors, including increasing heat, changing precipitation patterns, and extended drought. To better understand how these factors contribute to large fire emissions (gridded monthly fire emissions >95th percentile of all the fire emissions in the western US; 0.009 Gg/month), we build a machine learning model to predict fire emissions (PM 2.5 ) over the western US at 0.25° resolution, interpreted using explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). From the predictor contributions derived from XAI, we conduct k‐means clustering analysis to identify four clusters of predictor variables representing different drivers of large fire emissions. The four clusters feature the contributions of fuel load (Cluster 1) and different levels of dryness (Cluster 2–4), controlled by fuel moisture, drought condition, and fire‐favorable large‐scale meteorological patterns featuring high temperature, high pressure, and low relative humidity. In the past two decades, large fire emissions peak in summer. However, large fire emissions increased significantly in September and October in 2010–2020 relative to 2000–2009, extending the peak large fire emissions from summer to autumn. The larger enhancements of large fire emissions during autumn compared to summer are contributed by decreased fuel moisture, along with more frequent concurrent fire‐favorable large‐scale meteorological patterns and drought. These results highlight fuel drying as a common driver supported by multiple drivers, such as warmer temperature and more frequent synoptic patterns favorable for fires, in increasing the autumn risk of large fire emissions across the western US.