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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

Data Files for Runoff Evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for Permafrost Regions

Modeling of hydrological runoff is essential for accurately capturing spatiotemporal feedbacks within the land–atmosphere system, particularly in sensitive regions such as permafrost landscapes. However, substantial uncertainties persist in the terrestrial runoff parameterization schemes used in Earth system and land surface models. This is particularly true in permafrost regions, where landscape heterogeneity is high and reliable observational data are scarce.This data set includes all files that were produced and applied in the paper Runoff Evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for Permafrost Regions [Xiang et al. in review]. The paper is in review as of July 1 2025 in Geoscientific Model Development (GMD). In this study, we evaluate the performance of runoff parameterization schemes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Our proposed framework leverages simulation results from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), which is a physics-rich integrated surface/subsurface hydrologic model that has been successfully evaluated previously in Arctic tundra regions. We used ATS to simulate runoff from 22 representative hillslopes in the Sagavanirktok River basin, located on the North Slope of Alaska, then compared the output with ELM’s parameterized representation of total runoff. This dataset contains 2 figure image files (*.png, *jpg) that describe the study site and methods, as well as folders (Figure*.zip) that contain the associated data files (*.csv, *.dat) and python code notebooks (*.ipynb) for figures 3-7 in the paper. Jupyter notebook (*.ipynb) files that produce the figure files using the associated data files will run within a python environment configured with Jupyter Lab or Notebook packages.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Computer-aided operations engineering with integrated models of systems and operations

CONFIG 3 is a prototype software tool that supports integrated conceptual design evaluation from early in the product life cycle, by supporting isolated or integrated modeling, simulation, and analysis of the function, structure, behavior, failures and operation of system designs. Integration and reuse of models is supported in an object-oriented environment providing capabilities for graph analysis and discrete event simulation. Integration is supported among diverse modeling approaches (component view, configuration or flow path view, and procedure view) and diverse simulation and analysis approaches. Support is provided for integrated engineering in diverse design domains, including mechanical and electro-mechanical systems, distributed computer systems, and chemical processing and transport systems. CONFIG supports abstracted qualitative and symbolic modeling, for early conceptual design. System models are component structure models with operating modes, with embedded time-related behavior models. CONFIG supports failure modeling and modeling of state or configuration changes that result in dynamic changes in dependencies among components. Operations and procedure models are activity structure models that interact with system models. CONFIG is designed to support evaluation of system operability, diagnosability and fault tolerance, and analysis of the development of system effects of problems over time, including faults, failures, and procedural or environmental difficulties.

Malin, Jane T.↗

ATOPS B-737 inner-loop control system linear model construction and verification

Nonlinear models and block diagrams of an inner-loop control system for the ATOPS B-737 Research Aircraft are presented. Continuous time linear model representations of the nonlinear inner-loop control systems are derived. Closed-loop aircraft simulations comparing nonlinear and linear dynamic responses to step inputs are used to verify the inner-loop control system models.

Broussard, J. R.↗

A propagation-based fault detection and discrimination method and the optimization of sensor deployment

Industrial processes can be affected by faults having a serious impact on operation when not promptly detected and diagnosed. Here in this paper, a propagation-based fault detection and discrimination(PFDD) method is proposed to develop a strategy for fault diagnosis while in the design phase of a system. The PFDD method constructs the system model using the Integrated System Fault Analysis(ISFA) technique. Based on the system model, the propagation of hardware and software faults are simulated qualitatively. Given the results of the simulation, the process by which a fault propagates can be characterized using the qualitative features of system variables including the deviation of the system variables from their expected values, the variation of the system variables over time, and the order in which each variable is influenced during the propagation of the fault. The strategy by which a fault can be detected and discriminated is defined using those features. The PFDD method supports the detection and discrimination of faults in both steady states and transient states. Based on the PFDD method, the optimization of sensor deployment in a system is discussed. A brute force algorithm is developed to examine the system’s capability at diagnosing faults and the cost of sensor deployment for all possible configurations of sensors. The optimal sensor deployment strategy can be derived accordingly. However, the brute force method is only applicable to small-scale systems due to its high computational cost. A genetic algorithm is used to optimize sensor deployment in large-scale systems. The PFDD and sensor deployment optimization methods are applied to the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) for verification.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Heuristic Dispatch Based on Price Signals for Behind-the-Meter PV-Battery Systems in the System Advisor Model

The economic potential of a behind-the-meter (BTM) PV-battery system depends greatly on how the battery is dispatched. Different utility rates, system sizes, generation and load profiles can all require different dispatch strategies. This paper presents price signals dispatch, a new algorithm for automated economic dispatch of BTM PV-battery systems, which utilizes 24-hour PV and load forecasts, degradation data, and utility rates. The algorithm is integrated with the System Advisor Model (SAM) tool and is tested with a nonlinear generic electrochemical battery model. Price signals dispatch outperforms SAM’s existing algorithms in cases requiring a balance between demand charge management and energy arbitrage, and in cases where battery degradation imposes a significant cost.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Developing Deep Learning Models for System Remaining Useful Life Predictions: Application to Aircraft Engines

Prognostics and health management (PHM) is an important part of ensuring reliable operations of complex safety- critical systems. System-level remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is a much more complex problem than making estimations at the component level, and system-level RUL methodologies remain sparse in the literature. Model-based approaches have traditionally worked in the past for components such as capacitors, MOSFETs, batteries, or hard-drives (to name a few examples), but developing high fidelity dynamics models of cyber physical systems that can be used to study the effects of multiple degrading components in the system remains a challenging task. Some initial work on model-based System RUL predictions was demonstrated in Khorasgani, et al [1], but, to generalize the system-level prognostics problem, we have to resort to pure data driven and hybrid approaches. In this work, we propose an end-to-end data- driven framework for developing deep learning models to predict remaining useful life of cyber physical systems operating under unknown faulty conditions. The raw data is organized with a data schema that improves the model development process and down stream data analysis tasks. Due to the unknown faulty conditions, the raw sensor data is transformed into signals that expose the underlying degradation processes, which are then used for model development. Bayesian Optimization is used to tune the model parameters prior to training and validation. We show that this approach results in accurate predictions within 3 cycles to end of life (EOL). We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by applying it to the N-CMAPSS turbofan engine dataset recently released by NASA, which includes high fidelity degradation modeling, real world operating conditions, and a large set of fault operating modes.

Prognostics↗

Containerless processing of undercooled melts

The investigation focused on the control of microstructural evolution in Mn-Al, Fe-Ni, Ni-V, and Au-Pb-Sb alloys through the high undercooling levels provided by containerless processing, and provided fundamental new information on the control of nucleation. Solidification analysis was conducted by means of thermal analysis, x-ray diffraction, and metallographic characterization on samples processed in a laboratory scale drop tube system. The Mn-Al alloy system offers a useful model system with the capability of phase separation on an individual particle basis, thus permitting a more complete understanding of the operative kinetics and the key containerless processing variables. This system provided the opportunity of analyzing the nucleation rate as a function of processing conditions and allowed for the quantitative assessment of the relevant processing parameters. These factors are essential in the development of a containerless processing model which has a predictive capability. Similarly, Ni-V is a model system that was used to study duplex partitionless solidification, which is a structure possible only in high under cooling solidification processes. Nucleation kinetics for the competing bcc and fcc phases were studied to determine how this structure can develop and the conditions under which it may occur. The Fe-Ni alloy system was studied to identify microstructural transitions with controlled variations in sample size and composition during containerless solidification. This work was forwarded to develop a microstructure map which delineates regimes of structural evolution and provides a unified analysis of experimental observations. The Au-Pb-Sb system was investigated to characterize the thermodynamic properties of the undercooled liquid phase and to characterize the glass transition under a variety of processing conditions. By analyzing key containerless processing parameters in a ground based drop tube study, a carefully designed flight experiment may be planned to utilize the extended duration microgravity conditions of orbiting spacecraft.

Perepezko, J. H.↗

Assessment of the impacts of renewable energy variability in long-term decarbonization strategies

To meet the nationally determined contributions proposed by the countries that signed the Paris Agreement, investments must be made in renewable generation technologies such as solar and wind. However, due to their high variability, these technologies pose challenges in terms of meeting demand or generating excess electricity. For this reason, energy system models are designed to capture this variability by considering flexibility technologies. Nevertheless, it is important to note that some energy system models lack integration with other sectors. Therefore, integrated assessment models have been employed to evaluate mitigation strategies, as they endogenously consider the linkages between energy and non-energy sectors. In addition, due to their complexity, these models do not account for the variability of renewable resources. Hence, this research aims to address this issue. Here, this work represents the first attempt to evaluate how the introduction of hourly resolution affects the outcomes of integrated assessment models, specifically focusing on the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We employ a soft-linking approach between the GCAM and the Highway to Renewable Energy Systems model (H2RES, an hourly level energy system model) to accomplish this. The proposed approach is tested using Chile’s Nationally Determined Contributions under different hydrological profiles in the power sector. The results show that it is possible to use the capacity obtained from the Global Change Analysis Model and implement it on an hourly scale. However, the feasibility of implementation depends on high levels of flexibility technologies, such as battery energy storage. When given the choice of investments in renewable sources and flexible technologies, the optimal dispatch of the H2RES model show small differences than those obtained by GCAM-Chile. H2RES differs from GCAM-Chile in approximately 5% for wind and 3% for solar electricity generation in the year 2050. However, feasible integration of significant renewable sources is obtained with relatively high Critical Excess Electricity Production levels, reaching 20% in 2050. This excess electricity is attributed to the necessity for flexible technologies to manage the intermittency of renewables sources when hourly profiles of such sources are considered.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Optical studies of a binary miscibility gap system

Model transparent fluids are being studied to develop a better understanding of phase separation processes in binary miscibility-gap metal alloys. The model selected for the reported work is diethylene glycol-ethyl salicylate. This system is well characterized with respect to its phase diagram, density, surface and interfacial tensions, viscosity, and other pertinent physical properties. Minority phase growth, coalescence, and droplet motions are observed using holographic microscopy which is capable of recording particle densities up to 10 to the 7th particles/cu cm and is able to resolve particles as small as 2 to 3 microns in diameter throughout the entire volume of the test cell. Sequential holograms allow determination of droplet size distribution changes throughout the total volume with respect to time and temperature. This allows a direct method for testing various theories of droplet growth and ripening phenomena.

Witherow, W. K.↗

Dispatch optimization of electric thermal energy storage within System Advisor Model

A stand-alone electric thermal energy storage (ETES) system converts low-value electricity into heat using resistance heating elements. During periods of high-value electricity, an ETES system uses a thermodynamic power cycle to convert stored thermal energy back to electricity. These dispatchable systems derive value from their ability to store energy when prices are low and generate electricity when prices are favorable, i.e., energy arbitrage. Consequently, dispatch optimization of system operations, through maximizing revenue subject to system constraints, is essential to evaluate the economic value of a particular system design. While stand-alone ETES systems offer potential advantages as dispatchable grid storage technologies, there is a lack of a neutral third-party, publicly available, open-source model to evaluate the performance, dispatch, and financial viability of these systems. To address this problem, we have developed a techno-economic model for stand-alone ETES systems, within National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) System Advisor Model (SAM). We implement a mixed-integer linear program to determine an ETES optimal operating schedule that maximizes electricity sales less maintenance costs caused by operation and cycling given temporal-varying grid electricity prices. Our contributions include a mixed-integer linear program for energy arbitrage of an ETES system, an ETES performance model through a publicly-available software (i.e., SAM), and an exercise of our model through case studies that compare ETES operational strategies and annual financial metrics. With our dispatch optimization model, we were able to improve revenue by 20% compared to a myopic heuristic while reducing the operational cost of the ETES system through decreases in cycle starts, cycles per day, and heater starts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Understanding Solution State Conformation and Aggregate Structure of Conjugated Polymers via Small Angle X-ray Scattering

Donor-acceptor (D-A) conjugated polymers are high-performance organic electronic materials that exhibit complex aggregation behavior. Understanding the solution state conformation and aggregation of conjugated polymers is crucial for controlling morphology during thin-film deposition and the subsequent electronic performance. However, a precise multiscale structure of solution state aggregates is lacking. Here, we present an in-depth small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) analysis of the solution state structure of an isoindigo-bithiophene-based D-A polymer (PII-2T) in chlorobenzene and decane as our primary system. Modeling the system as a combination of hierarchical fibrillar aggregates mixed with dispersed polymers, we extract information about conformation and multiscale aggregation and also clarify the physical origin of features often observed but unaddressed or misinterpreted in small-angle scattering patterns of conjugated polymers. The persistence length of the D-A polymer extracted from SAXS agrees well with a theoretical model based on the dihedral potentials. Additionally, we show that the broad high q structure factor peak seen in scattering profiles can be attributed to lamellar stacking occurring within the fibril aggregates and that the low q aggregate scattering is strongly influenced by the polymer molecular weight. Overall, the SAXS profiles of D-A polymers in general exhibit a sensitive dependence on the co-existence of fibrillar aggregate and dispersed polymer chain populations. We corroborate our findings from SAXS with electron microscopy of freeze-dried samples for direct imaging of fibrillar aggregates. Finally, we demonstrate the generality of our approach by fitting the scattering profiles of a variety of D-A polymers based on thieno-isoindigo (PTII-2T), diketopyrrolopyrrole (DPP2T-TT, DPP-BTZ, PDPP2FT-C- 16 ), naphthalenediimide (P(NDI2OD-T2)), and a conjugated block copolymer P3HT-b-DPPT-T. The results presented here establish a picture of the D-A polymer solution state structure and provide a general method of interpreting and analyzing their scattering profiles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Evaluating human performance modeling for system assessment: Promise and problems

The development and evaluation of computational human performance models is examined. An intention is to develop models which can be used to interact with system prototypes and simulations to perform system assessment. Currently LR is working on a set of models emulating cognitive, psychomotor, auditory, and visual activity for multiple operator positions of a command and control simulation system. These models, developed in conjunction with BBN Systems and Technologies, function within the simulation environment and allow for both unmanned system assessment and manned (human-in-loop) assessment of system interface and team interactions. These are relatively generic models with built-in flexibility which allows modification of some model parameters. These models have great potential for improving the efficiency and effectiveness of system design, test, and evaluation. However, the extent of the practical utility of these models is unclear. Initial verification efforts comparing model performance within the simulation to actual human operators on a similar, independent simulation have been performed and current efforts are directed at comparing human and model performance within the same simulation environment.

Patterson, Robert W.↗

The 12-foot pressure wind tunnel restoration project model support systems

The 12 Foot Pressure Wind Tunnel is a variable density, low turbulence wind tunnel that operates at subsonic speeds, and up to six atmospheres total pressure. The restoration of this facility is of critical importance to the future of the U.S. aerospace industry. As part of this project, several state of the art model support systems are furnished to provide an optimal balance between aerodynamic and operational efficiency parameters. Two model support systems, the Rear Strut Model Support, and the High Angle of Attack Model Support are discussed. This paper covers design parameters, constraints, development, description, and component selection.

Sasaki, Glen E.↗

Recent and Planned Improvements to the System Advisor Model (SAM)

This talk will focus on recent and planned modeling improvements to the NREL System Advisor ModelTM (SAM), with recently released features including PV hourly clipping correction, expanded geographic scope of SAM's NSRDB interface to Europe and Africa, and additional options for hybrids. Upcoming improvements include a case comparison feature, improved visualizations, and extensions of PVWatts for battery modeling and utility rate calculations.

batteries↗

Heuristic Dispatch Based on Price Signals for Behind-the-Meter PV-Battery Systems in the System Advisor Model: Preprint

The economic potential of a behind-the-meter (BTM) PV-battery system depends greatly on how the battery is dispatched. Different utility rates, system sizes, generation and load profiles can all require different dispatch strategies. This paper presents price signals dispatch, a new algorithm for automated economic dispatch of BTM PV-battery systems, which utilizes 24-hour PV and load forecasts, degradation data, and utility rates. The algorithm is integrated with the System Advisor Model (SAM) tool and is tested with a nonlinear generic electrochemical battery model. Price signals dispatch outperforms SAM’s existing algorithms in cases requiring a balance between demand charge management and energy arbitrage, and in cases where battery degradation imposes a significant cost.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Future Model-Based Systems Engineering Vision and Strategy Bridge for NASA

A vision for the future of model-based systems engineering (MBSE) at NASA in 2029 and a strategy bridge towards that future are presented. Strategic thinking and leading change concepts were used to analyze reports and presentations on global trends and visionary thinking about the future of systems and digital engineering. The context, strategic time horizon, stakeholders, strategic challenges, strategic advantages, driving forces, and opportunities were considered. The analysis resulted in a future vision of MBSE that shows what NASA systems engineers and digital machines will do to perform rapid, extraordinary, and unprecedented missions. The NASA systems engineer, in this future vision, works with a global project team in a virtual and collaborative environment, engineers the system, and uses digital approaches as the routine and default way of working. The digital machines provide data-driven and automated mission designs; have a backbone of program and project management, systems engineering, and product life-cycle management; and are a knowledge-sharing infrastructure. The NASA systems engineer and the systems engineering team are envisioned to use digital machines to plan and perform rapid exploration missions, develop a digital twin that lasts across the life cycle, and develop enduring and adaptable systems. NASA has an engineering enterprise and a life-cycle management framework that endure, adapt, and respond. A strategy bridge based on the Baldrige Criteria for Performance Excellence Framework and lessons learned from a recent MBSE initiative illuminates a way forward from today to this desired future. The bridge lays out a strategy for leaders and recommends investments of today for immediate benefits and for benefits in 2029.

model-based systems engineering, digital engineeri↗