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At least 1,243 records · Page 69
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Traceability of Surface Longwave Irradiance Measurements to SI Using the IRIS Radiometers: Preprint

The World Radiation Center at PMOD/WRC is operated on behalf of the WMO. The Infrared Radiometry Section of the WRC (WRC-IRS) provides traceability of downwelling atmospheric longwave radiation measured with pyrgeometers by comparison to the World Infrared Standard Group (WISG) [1]. As has been discussed previously [2], the current implementation of the WISG measures lower longwave irradiances than the two candidate reference radiometers IRIS (Infrared Integrating Sphere Radiometer) and the ACP (Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer). To validate the findings reported in [2], additional measurements since that publication in 2014 have been performed and are discussed in this paper. Specifically, Measurements during cloud-free nights at PMOD/WRC between the WISG and IRIS radiometers, A field campaign at the Atmospheric Radiation Monitoring Site (ARM) at Southern Great Plains, Oklahoma with IRIS, ACP, AERI (Atmospheric Emittance Radiance Interferometer) and WISG traceable pyrgeometers, Laboratory comparison between the reference blackbody of PMOD/WRC with the hemispherical blackbody developed by PTB.

ACR↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the Optimality of LinDist3Flow for Optimal Tap Selection of Step Voltage Regulators in Unbalanced Distribution Networks: Preprint

The adoption of distributed energy resources such as photovoltaics (PVs) has increased dramatically during the previous decade. The increased penetration of PVs into distribution networks (DNs) can cause voltage fluctuations that have to be mitigated. One of the key utility assets employed to this end are step-voltage regulators (SVRs). It is desirable to include tap selection of SVRs in optimal power flow (OPF) routines, a task that turns out to be challenging because the resultant OPF problem is nonconvex with added complexities stemming from accurate SVR modeling. While several convex relaxations based on semi-definite programming (SDP) have been presented in the literature for optimal tap selection, SDP based schemes do not scale well and are challenging to implement in large-scale planning or operational frameworks. This paper deals with the optimal tap selection (OPTS) problem for wye-connected SVRs using linear approximations of power flow equations. Specifically, the LinDist3Flow model is adopted and the effective SVR ratio is assumed to be continuous–enabling the formulation of a problem called LinDist3Flow-OPTS, which amounts to a linear program. The scalability and optimality gap of LinDist3Flow-OPTS are evaluated with respect to existing SDP-based and nonlinear programming techniques for optimal tap selection in three standard feeders, namely, the IEEE 13-bus, 123-bus, and 8500-node DNs. For all DNs considered, LinDist3Flow-OPTS achieves an optimality gap of approximately 1% or less while significantly lowering the computational burden.

linear approximations↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Novel Spatial-Temporal Variational Quantum Circuit to Enable Deep Learning on NISQ Devices

Quantum computing presents a promising approach for machine learning with its capability for extremely parallel computation in high-dimension through superposition and entanglement. Despite its potential, existing quantum learning algorithms, such as Variational Quantum Circuits (VQCs), face challenges in handling more complex datasets, particularly those that are not linearly separable. What’s more, it encounters the deployability issue, making the learning models suffer a drastic accuracy drop after deploying them to the actual quantum devices. To overcome these limitations, this paper proposes a novel spatial-temporal design, namely “ST-VQC”, to integrate nonlinearity in quantum learning and improve the robustness of the learning model to noise. Specifically, ST-VQC can extract spatial features via a novel block-based encoding quantum sub-circuit coupled with a layer-wise computation quantum sub-circuit to enable temporal-wise deep learning. Additionally, a SWAP-Free physical circuit design is devised to improve robustness. These designs bring a number of hyperparameters. After a systematic analysis of the design space for each design component, an automated optimization framework is proposed to generate the ST-VQC quantum circuit. The proposed ST-VQC has been evaluated on two IBM quantum processors, ibm-cairo with 27 qubits and ibmq-lima with 7 qubits to assess its effectiveness. The results of the evaluation on the standard dataset for binary classification show that ST-VQC can achieve over 30% accuracy improvement compared with existing VQCs on actual quantum computers. Moreover, on a non-linear synthetic dataset, the STVQC outperforms a linear classifier by 27.9%, while the linear classifier using classical computing outperforms the existing VQC by 15.58%.

Li, Jinyang↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic finite volume method for uncertainty quantification of transient flow in gas pipeline networks

We develop a weakly intrusive framework to simulate the propagation of uncertainty in solutions of generic hyperbolic partial differential equation systems on graph-connected domains with nodal coupling and boundary conditions. The method is based on the Stochastic Finite Volume (SFV) approach and can be applied for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the dynamical state of fluid flow over actuated transport networks. The numerical scheme has specific advantages for modeling intertemporal uncertainty in time-varying boundary parameters, which cannot be characterized by strict upper and lower (interval) bounds. We describe the scheme for a single pipe, and then formulate the controlled junction Riemann problem (JRP) that enables the extension to general network structures. In conclusion, we demonstrate the method's capabilities and performance characteristics using a standard benchmark test network.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

FIND: A Synthetic weather generator to control drought Frequency, Intensity, and Duration

Water systems worldwide are experiencing climate change-induced shifts in drought properties like frequency, intensity, and duration, affecting water security and reliability. To develop and test effective drought preparedness plans, researchers often use synthetic weather generators to create hydrological scenarios that explore drought variability beyond historical records. Existing weather generators typically allow users to adjust streamflow statistics like percentiles or temporal correlation but do not directly control drought properties of frequency, intensity, and duration. To fill this gap, we propose FIND (Frequency, INtensity, and Duration) synthetic weather generator. FIND incorporates a standardized drought index to directly and in dependently control drought frequency, intensity, and duration in generated streamflow time series while preserving observed hydrological variability. Use cases for FIND include i) water systems analysis applications that seek to train and test drought strategies under historical and plausible future drought conditions, and ii) bottom-up vulnerability studies relating system vulnerability outcomes to specific changes in drought properties of frequency, intensity, and duration. Here, we demonstrate FIND’s versatility through three experiments: replicating historically observed drought properties, generating streamflow scenarios for multiple sites preserving correlation between their drought conditions, and generating a set of scenarios with direct and independent changes in drought properties. FIND source code is openly available for applications beyond the scope of this paper.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Marine Toxicity, Biodegradability, and Rolling-Sliding Tribological Performance of Ionic Liquid-Enhanced Environmentally-Acceptable Lubricants for Tidal Turbomachinery

Environmentally acceptable lubricants (EALs) are increasingly being recognized in many fields including waterpower, hydraulics, water transport, agricultural machinery, offshore wind turbines, etc. Specifically, high-performance EALs are demanded for tidal turbomachinery to ensure high efficiency and reliability and avoid the significant risk of direct contamination of the marine ecosystem upon leaks. Here we report a new development of ionic liquid (IL)-enhanced EALs for tidal energy. One short-chain phosphonium phosphate and one short-chain ammonium phosphate ILs were used as the candidate additives and the IL-containing EALs demonstrated significantly improved lubricating performance, much lower toxicity, and increased biodegradability compared with commercial baselines. Specifically, in a rolling-sliding test simulating the operation of a model tidal turbine gearbox bearing, an EAL containing the ILs at a 0.5 wt % concentration demonstrated 40% lower friction, 45% less wear loss, substantially reduced rolling contact fatigue-induced surface damage, and one order of magnitude lower vibration noise compared with a commercial gear oil. In an EPA standard toxicity test, 90 and 70% survival of marine biota was observed when exposed to an EAL containing 5 wt % of the short-chain phosphonium phosphate and ammonium phosphate ILs, respectively, while the selected commercial gear oil and bioderived additive killed all marine biota. In a standard biodegradability test, 2 wt % addition of the phosphonium phosphate IL not only retained the EAL’s ready biodegradability but further boosted the oil decomposition from a range of 60–80% to a higher level of 80–95%. Conversely, adding the commercial bioderived additive downgraded the EAL from readily to inherently biodegradable. Furthermore, this work offers scientific insights for development of ILs as potential EAL additives for marine energy and broader applications.

additives↗
DOE OSTI2021

A 24-Channel Digitizer With a JESD204B-Compliant Serial Interface for High-Speed Detectors

In this report a 24-channel application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) for the readout of high-speed CMOS active pixel sensors for charged particle detection is presented. The chip comprises 24 preamplifiers, 24 distinct 12-bit, 25 MSPS Pipelined analog-to-digital converters (ADCs) with self-calibration, an internal phase-locked loop (PLL), and a 3 Gbps serial interface that conforms to the JESD204B standard. To simplify interfacing with a variety of sensors, the ASIC also includes an automatic offset calibration loop. The high level of integration of the ASIC reduces overall system cost and area, and exploiting the signal characteristics of the image sensor allows the ADC to be optimized for reduced power dissipation. The use of an integrated serializer and an industry standard protocol simplifies integration of the ASIC into a complete camera system. The ASIC, called the High-Speed Image Preprocessor Targeted for Electron Readout, or HIPSTER, with a die area of 64.26 mm 2 , is packaged in a 480-ball grid array (BGA) and is fabricated in 180-nm CMOS technology. HIPSTER achieves typical differential nonlinearity (DNL) < 0.55 LSB, input-referred thermal noise of $114.5 μV-rms, and a bit error rate (BER) of better than 10-14. The power dissipation is 98 mW/channel.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Searches for Sub-GeV Dark Matter with NOvA and LDMX and Performance Studies of the Cosmic-Ray Veto for Mu2e

The constituents of dark matter are still unknown, and the viable possibilities span a very large mass range. Specific scenarios for the origin of dark matter sharpen the focus to within about an MeV to 100 TeV. Most of the stable constituents of known matter have masses in the lower range, and a thermal origin for dark matter works in a simple and predictive manner in this mass range as well. Non-gravitational couplings of dark matter to Standard Model particles would make it possible to produce dark matter at accelerators. Through 120 GeV proton-nucleus collisions, NOvA is effectively a beam dump experiment for producing and detecting dark matter. This thesis presents a search for dark matter – electron scattering in the NOvA near detector from sub-GeV dark matter produced at the target. A future search for sub-GeV dark matter with the Light Dark Matter eXperiment (LDMX) is discussed, along with a study of LDMX's expected sensitivity to visibly decaying dark photons. Additionally, performance studies of the Mu2e cosmic ray veto (CRV) are presented. A calibration procedure for the CRV counters is discussed, along with tests of the efficiency, position resolution, and light yield decline of the CRV counters.

Horoho, Tyler Gregory [Virginia U.] (ORCID:0000000↗
DOE OSTI2025

A simplified approach for creep damage and remaining life calculation for materials surveillance in advanced reactors

High temperature reactor materials will experience a combination of mechanical degradation caused by creep and fatigue and environmental degradation caused by neutron irradiation and, in some cases, exposure to corrosive coolants. A materials surveillance program is one option for ensuring the safe, reliable operation of key reactor components under these conditions. Such a program would monitor the degradation in key material properties over time, using this data to predict how changes in the material properties affect components performance. This could then be used to make plant operational decisions and support eventual plant license extensions. Past work de-scribes such a material surveillance program based on passively actuated mechanical test articles that impose creep-fatigue type loading on test materials driven only by changes in temperature, for example those experienced by components under standard operating cycles. This report focuses on two aspects of the proposed material surveillance program: how to design the test articles to mimic the mechanical response of the corresponding component and how to use ex-situ test data to deter-mine the amount of damaged experienced by the test article (and hence the corresponding compo-nent) in service. Specifically, this report derives and validated simplified methods for both tasks, replacing earlier, more complicated approaches based on simulating the test article response and finding the best specimen design or current damage via complex numerical optimization. The sim-plified methods for each task developed here can be implemented in spreadsheet software and are simple enough for practical use in future operating plants. This report derives the methods (one for sizing and two options for damage inference), verifies the simplified approaches versus more so-phisticated methods, and compares the results of applying the simplified methods to previous re-sults using the complex numerical optimization approach. The report also provides a worked sam-pled problem applying the simplified techniques to a realistic high temperature reactor component.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Biochar Classification System and Associated Test Methods

In this chapter, a biochar classification system related to its use as soil amendment is proposed. This document builds upon previous work: “Standardized product definition and product testing guidelines for biochar that is used in soil” (IBI, 2015) (aka IBI Biochar Standards) and “Guidelines for biochar production for a sustainable production of biochar: European Biochar Certificate” (EBC, 2012-2022) (aka EBC Biochar Standards). It should be noted that the EBC guidelines constitute the basis for biochar certification through the independent government accredited inspection agency, Bio.Inspecta AG. The present document constrains its scope to materials with properties that satisfy the criteria for biochar as defined by either the IBI Biochar Standards or the EBC Standards (Annex I), as required by the current methodologies developed for accounting carbon credits associated with the biochar use in the voluntary market (e.g., Verra, Puro.Earth). The classification system envisions enabling stakeholders and commercial entities to (i) identify the most suitable biochar to fulfil the requirements for a particular soil and/or land-use, (ii) distinguish the application of biochar for specific niches (e.g., soilless agriculture), and (iii) assess the climate-impact value based on biochar properties, production efficiency, and alternative feedstock uses. It is based on the best current knowledge and will need to be improved as new data and knowledge become available in the scientific literature.

biochar, climate change impacts, soil amendment, c↗
DOE OSTI2021

CCF Parameter Estimations, 2020 Update

This report documents the quantitative results of the common-cause failure (CCF) data collection effort (which included data through 2020) and summarizes the results of the parameter estimation quantification process performed on CCF data in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) CCF database. This is the 2020 update to NUREG/CR-5497, updating data and parameter estimations for CCFs. This release, CCF Parameter Estimation 2020, reflects the CCF data contained within the CCF database, https://rads.inl.gov/Pages/CCF.aspx, by executing (in August 2021) the CCF query rules in the folder SPAR Rules 2020. The data covers the period from 1/1/2006 to 12/31/2020, the most recent 15-year period in which data are available. The use of the most recent rolling 15-year data in parameter estimation differs from previous updates, in which 1/1/1997 was used as the starting date (e.g., 1/1/1997 to 12/31/2015 for the 2015 update, 1/1/1997 to 12/31/2012 for the 2012 update). The new date range (i.e., the most recent 15-year period), was selected for this CCF update so as to be consistent with the date range chosen for the component reliability parameter estimation, and with the effort to include sufficient data for analysis while simultaneously reflecting the most recent industry performance. These results are appropriate for use in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies, including the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the U.S. This update may be referred as: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, "CCF Parameter Estimations, 2020 Update," https://nrcoe.inl.gov/publicdocs/CCF/ccfparamest2020.pdf, November 2021.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mobile heat pipe cooled fast reactor system

A mobile heat pipe cooled fast nuclear reactor may be configured for transportation to remote locations and may be able to provide 0.5 to 2 megawatts of power. The mobile heat pipe cooled fast reactor may contain a plurality of heat pipes that are proximate to a plurality of fuel pins inside the reactor. The plurality of heat pipes may extend out of the reactor. The reactor may be configured to be placed in a standard shipping container, and may further be configured to be contained within a cask and attached to a skid for easier transportation.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying interfacial energetics of 2D semiconductor electrodes using in situ spectroelectrochemistry and many-body theory

Hot carrier extraction occurs in 2D semiconductor photoelectrochemical cells. Boosting the energy efficiency of hot carrier-based photoelectrochemical cells requires maximizing the hot carrier extraction rate relative to the cooling rate. One could expect to tune the hot carrier extraction rate constant (k ET ) via a Marcus–Gerischer relationship, where k ET depends exponentially on ΔG°' (the standard driving force for interfacial electron transfer). ΔG°' is defined as the energy level difference between a semiconductor's conduction/valence band (CB/VB) minima/maxima and the redox potential of reactant molecules in solution. A major challenge in the electrochemistry community is that conventional approaches to quantify ΔG°' for bulk semiconductors (e.g., Mott–Schottky measurements) cannot be directly applied to ultrathin 2D electrodes. The specific problem is that enormous electronic bandgap changes (>0.5 eV) and CB/VB edge movement take place upon illuminating or applying a potential to a 2D semiconductor electrode. Here, we develop an in situ absorbance spectroscopy approach to quantify interfacial energetics of 2D semiconductor/electrolyte interfaces using a minimal many-body model. Our results show that band edge movement in monolayer MoS 2 is significant (0.2–0.5 eV) over a narrow range of applied potentials (0.2–0.3 V). Such large band edge shifts could change k ET by a factor of 10–100, which has important consequences for practical solar energy conversion applications. We discuss the current experimental and theoretical knowledge gaps that must be addressed to minimize the error in the proposed optical approach.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mid Infra-Red Laser Sensor for Continuous Sulfur Trioxide Monitoring to Improve Coal-Fired Power Plant Performance during Flexible Operations

During the course of this project, we performed exhaustive research and development of SO3/H2SO4 sensing technology for coal-fired power plant applications (Figure 1). The development culminated in a successful field campaign of a prototype continuous real-time H2SO4 monitor at a coal-fired power plant (TRL 6) accomplishing the primary goal of the project. The developed sensors utilize tunable laser absorption spectroscopy (TLAS) operating in the mid-infrared (Mid-IR) wavelength region, which is the so-called “molecular fingerprint” region. Systems operating in the Mid-IR have orders of magnitude more sensitivity than systems operating at shorter wavelengths, such as near-infrared (NIR). However, NIR systems are more widespread due to more mature supporting technology (e.g., fiber optics, optical components, etc.). In this project, we not only produced a specific Mid-IR sensor, we also advanced Mid-IR sensor technology in general through the development and demonstration of such supporting technology. In this project, we also developed proprietary broad tuning lasers enabling the ability to effectively measure SO3, H2SO4, H2O, and SO2. Different molecular species have unique spectral signatures that can be probed with lasers operating at different wavelengths. Standard TLAS uses relatively narrow wavelength tuning distributed feedback (DFB) lasers, which can typically only target a single species with narrow features, and are not appropriate for species with broad features, such as SO3 or H2SO4. In contrast, by developing unique, broad-tuning laser technology, we were able to measure these species, as well as SO2 and H2O simultaneously. Furthermore, to enable real-time analysis at a power plant, we modified a commercially available heated gas cell to operate in the Mid-IR wavelength range and fiber coupled the lasers to enable remote delivery of the beams. To generate reference data (library spectra), our collaborators at the University of California Irvine (UCI) developed a catalytic SO3 generation facility. It is worth mentioning that representative H2SO4 and SO3 Mid-IR spectra are not a part of any publicly available database and the data generated under this project is a valuable resource in and of itself. In addition, based on the UCI study we determined that detection of SO3 is complicated by the very strong SO2 absorption. For that reason, we concentrated on H2SO4 detection. Since SO3 and H2SO4 exist in a flue gas in a state of equilibrium, which depends on temperature and humidity, by measuring water concentration and controlling the temperature of the gas cell, we developed an approach to determine SO3 concentration from the H2SO4 measurement. During the development phase of the project, we performed three testing campaigns at our collaborator’s FERCo flue gas facility with conditions representative of the coal-fired power plant (~ 40ppm SO3, 1700ppm to 2800 ppm SO2, 10% water) with the exception of particulate matter. After three test campaigns at FERCo we performed field testing at Harrison Power Station. The final system was mounted on a duct and measured H2SO4, SO2 and water. The tests were highly successful with a demonstrated real-time H2SO4 precision of 1 ppm with a 1 second update. Our collaborators at EPRI conducted an industry survey and determined that there is a very high interest for the SO3/H2SO4 monitoring in the power generation industry as well as in heavy industries in general. Furthermore, work performed by OptoKnowledge beyond the scope of this project under a synergistic DOE SBIR determined another approach to SO3 detection. We applied for Phase II on this SBIR for development a of versatile SO3/H2SO4 sensor but were not selected. We are currently looking for another opportunity to leverage all the technological advancements produced by this project including but not limited to the flue gas facility at UCI, the hardware and software developed, and relationships with FERCo, EPRI CEMTEK, and Harrison Station.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intelligent Triggers for Rare Event Detection in Liquid Argon Detectors

Next-generation neutrino experiments like SBND and DUNE rely on Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPCs), which produce exceptionally detailed data at high volume. Capturing rare or unexpected events in real-time is a major challenge. Our project explores the use of machine learning, specifically autoencoder-based anomaly detection, to identify unusual activity directly from raw detector signals. Inspired by successes at the CMS experiment, we demonstrate that such methods can be adapted to LArTPCs and show promising results in both simulated studies and early steps toward real-time hardware deployment. This approach could open new avenues for detecting signals from physics beyond the Standard Model.

Chung, Seokju [Columbia U. (main)]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistical Significance Testing for Mixed Priors: A Combined Bayesian and Frequentist Analysis

In many hypothesis testing applications, we have mixed priors, with well-motivated informative priors for some parameters but not for others. The Bayesian methodology uses the Bayes factor and is helpful for the informative priors, as it incorporates Occam’s razor via the multiplicity or trials factor in the look-elsewhere effect. However, if the prior is not known completely, the frequentist hypothesis test via the false-positive rate is a better approach, as it is less sensitive to the prior choice. We argue that when only partial prior information is available, it is best to combine the two methodologies by using the Bayes factor as a test statistic in the frequentist analysis. We show that the standard frequentist maximum likelihood-ratio test statistic corresponds to the Bayes factor with a non-informative Jeffrey’s prior. We also show that mixed priors increase the statistical power in frequentist analyses over the maximum likelihood test statistic. We develop an analytic formalism that does not require expensive simulations and generalize Wilks’ theorem beyond its usual regime of validity. In specific limits, the formalism reproduces existing expressions, such as the p-value of linear models and periodograms. We apply the formalism to an example of exoplanet transits, where multiplicity can be more than 10 7 . We show that our analytic expressions reproduce the $p$-values derived from numerical simulations. We offer an interpretation of our formalism based on the statistical mechanics. We introduce the counting of states in a continuous parameter space using the uncertainty volume as the quantum of the state. We show that both the $p$-value and Bayes factor can be expressed as an energy versus entropy competition.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Evolve-Then-Correct Reduced Order Model for Hidden Fluid Dynamics

In this paper, we put forth an evolve-then-correct reduced order modeling approach that combines intrusive and nonintrusive models to take hidden physical processes into account. Specifically, we split the underlying dynamics into known and unknown components. In the known part, we first utilize an intrusive Galerkin method projected on a set of basis functions obtained by proper orthogonal decomposition. We then present two variants of correction formula based on the assumption that the observed data are a manifestation of all relevant processes. The first method uses a standard least-squares regression with a quadratic approximation and requires solving a rank-deficient linear system, while the second approach employs a recurrent neural network emulator to account for the correction term. We further enhance our approach by using an orthonormality conforming basis interpolation approach on a Grassmannian manifold to address off-design conditions. The proposed framework is illustrated here with the application of two-dimensional co-rotating vortex simulations under modeling uncertainty. The results demonstrate highly accurate predictions underlining the effectiveness of the evolve-then-correct approach toward real-time simulations, where the full process model is not known a priori.

long short-term memory↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the potential of short-term instrument deployment to improve distributed wind resource assessment

Distributed wind projects, which are connected at the distribution level of an electricity system or in off-grid applications to serve specific or local energy needs, often rely solely on wind resource models to establish wind speed and energy generation expectations. Historically, anemometer loan programs have provided an affordable avenue for more accurate onsite wind resource assessment, and the lowering cost of lidar systems has shown similar advantages for more recent assessments. While a full 12 months of onsite wind measurement is the standard for correcting model-based long-term wind speed estimates for utility-scale wind farms, the time and capital investment involved in gathering onsite measurements must be reconciled with the energy needs and funding opportunities that drive expedient deployment of distributed wind projects. Much literature exists to quantify the performance of correcting long-term wind speed estimates with 1 or more years of observational data, but few studies explore the impacts of correcting with months-long observational periods. This study aims to answer the question of how short you can go in terms of the observational time period needed to make impactful improvements to model-based long-term wind speed estimates. Three algorithms, multivariable linear regression, adaptive regression splines, and regression trees, are evaluated for their skill at correcting long-term wind resource estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) using months-long periods of observational data from 66 locations across the US. On average, correction with even 1 month of observations provides significant improvement over the baseline ERA5 wind speed estimates and produces median bias magnitudes and relative errors within 0.22 m s −1 and 4 percentage points of the median bias magnitudes and relative errors achieved using the standard 12 months of data for correction. However, in cases when the shortest observational periods (1 to 2 months) used for correction are not well correlated with the overlapping ERA5 reference, the resultant long-term wind speed errors are worse than those produced using ERA5 without correction. Summer months, which are characterized by weaker relative wind speeds and standard deviations for most of the evaluation sites, tend to produce the worst results for long-term correction using months-long observations. The three tested algorithms perform similarly for long-term wind speed bias; however, regression trees perform notably worse than multivariable linear regression and adaptive regression splines in terms of correlation when using 6 months or less of observational data for correction. Translating the analysis to wind energy, median relative errors in the capacity factor are on average within 10 % using 1 month of training. If the observation period used for correction is not well correlated with the reference data, however, misrepresentation of the observed capacity factor can be substantial. The risk associated with poor correlation between the observed and reference datasets decreases with increasing training period length. In the worst-correlation scenarios, the median capacity factor relative errors from using 1, 3, and 6 months are within 47 %, 26 %, and 16 %, respectively.

17 WIND ENERGY↗