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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

CABLE Stage 3 – Ultra‐High Strength/Highly Conductive Al Alloys

This work is to be conducted in support of the CABLE Conductor Manufacturing Prize Program awarded by NREL. The intent is to connect competitor teams with national laboratories that can help accelerate the development of innovative solutions and products. Teams who receive CABLE Prize awards are eligible to utilize vouchers at national laboratories to advance their ideas. NanoAL LLC has been awarded a voucher to utilize at Ames National Laboratory. Ames National Laboratory will perform a scale‐up trial of Nano 6000‐T9 to evaluate and optimize the heat treatment and other processing variables to validate the lab‐scale work done at NanoAL. The final processing schedule will be used to fabricate the submission samples for the Stage 3 contest. All work will be supported by mechanical and electrical conductivity testing be performed by Ames.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Ensemble Photometric Variability of Over 10 5 Quasars in the Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

We present the ensemble variability analysis results of quasars using the Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey (DECaLS) and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) quasar catalogs. Our data set includes 119,305 quasars with redshifts up to 4.89. Combining the two data sets provides a 15 year baseline and permits the analysis of the long timescale variability. Adopting a power-law form for the variability structure function, $V=A(t/$1years)$^γ$, we use the multidimensional parametric fitting to explore the relationships between the quasar variability amplitude and a wide variety of quasar properties, including redshift (positive), bolometric luminosity (negative), rest-frame wavelength (negative), and black hole mass (uncertain). We also find that γ can be also expressed as a function of redshift (negative), bolometric luminosity (positive), rest-frame wavelength (positive), and black hole mass (positive). Tests of the fitting significance with the bootstrap method show that, even with such a large quasar sample, some correlations are marginally significant. The typical value of $γ$ for the entire data set is $≳0.25$, consistent with the results in previous studies on both the quasar ensemble variability and the structure function. A significantly negative correlation between the variability amplitude and the Eddington ratio is found, which may be explained as an effect of accretion disk instability.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

SPECTROSCOPIC ORBITAL PERIODS FOR 29 CATACLYSMIC VARIABLES FROM THE SLOAN DIGITAL SKY SURVEY

We report follow-up spectroscopy of 29 cataclysmic variables from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), 22 of which were discovered by SDSS and seven of which are previously known systems that were recovered in SDSS. The periods for 16 of these objects were included in the tabulation by Gänsicke et al. While most of the systems have periods less than 2 hr, only one has a period in the 80–86 minutes “spike” found by Gänsicke et al., and 11 have periods longer than 3 hr, indicating that the present sample is skewed toward longer-period, higher-luminosity objects. Seven of the objects have spectra resembling dwarf novae, but have apparently never been observed in outburst, suggesting that many cataclysmics with relatively low variability amplitude remain to be discovered. Some of the objects are notable. SDSS J07568+0858 and SDSS J08129+1911 were previously known to have deep eclipses; in addition to spectroscopy, we use archival data from the Catalina Real Time Transient Survey to refine their periods. We give a parallax-based distance of 195 (+54, −39) pc for LV Cnc (SDSS J09197+0857), which at P{sub orb} = 81 m has the shortest orbital period in our sample. SDSS J08091+3814 shows both the spectroscopic phase offset and phase-dependent absorption found in SW Sextantis stars. The average spectra of SDSS J08055+0720 and SDSS J16191+1351 show contributions from K-type secondaries, and SDSS J080440+0239 shows a contribution from an early M star. We use these to constrain the distances. SDSS J09459+2922 has characteristics typical of a magnetic system. SDSS11324+6249 may be a novalike variable, and if so, its orbital period (99 minutes) is unusually short for that subclass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

A Study of Quasar Selection in the Supernova Fields of the Dark Energy Survey

In this paper, we present a study of quasar selection using the supernova fields of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We used a quasar catalog from an overlapping portion of the SDSS Stripe 82 region to quantify the completeness and efficiency of selection methods involving color, probabilistic modeling, variability, and combinations of color/probabilistic modeling with variability. In all cases, we considered only objects that appear as point sources in the DES images. We examine color selection methods based on the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) mid-IR W1-W2 color, a mixture of WISE and DES colors (g - i and i-W1), and a mixture of Vista Hemisphere Survey and DES colors (g - i and i - K). For probabilistic quasar selection, we used XDQSO, an algorithm that employs an empirical multi-wavelength flux model of quasars to assign quasar probabilities. Our variability selection uses the multi-band χ 2 -probability that sources are constant in the DES Year 1 griz-band light curves. The completeness and efficiency are calculated relative to an underlying sample of point sources that are detected in the required selection bands and pass our data quality and photometric error cuts. We conduct our analyses at two magnitude limits, i < 19.8 mag and i < 22 mag. For the subset of sources with W1 and W2 detections, the W1-W2 color or XDQSOz method combined with variability gives the highest completenesses of >85% for both i-band magnitude limits and efficiencies of >80% to the bright limit and >60% to the faint limit; however, the giW1 and giW1+variability methods give the highest quasar surface densities. The XDQSOz method and combinations of W1W2/giW1/XDQSOz with variability are among the better selection methods when both high completeness and high efficiency are desired. We also present the OzDES Quasar Catalog of 1263 spectroscopically confirmed quasars from three years of OzDES observation in the 30 deg 2 of the DES supernova fields. Finally, the catalog includes quasars with redshifts up to z ~ 4 and brighter than i = 22 mag, although the catalog is not complete up to this magnitude limit.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Metagenomic Insight into Environmentally Challenged Methane-Fed Microbial Communities

In this study, we aimed to investigate, through high-resolution metagenomics and metatranscriptomics, the composition and the trajectories of microbial communities originating from a natural sample, fed exclusively with methane, over 14 weeks of laboratory incubation. This study builds on our prior data, suggesting that multiple functional guilds feed on methane, likely through guild-to-guild carbon transfer, and potentially through intraguild and intraspecies interactions. We observed that, under two simulated dioxygen partial pressures—low versus high—community trajectories were different, with considerable variability among the replicates. In all microcosms, four major functional guilds were prominently present, representing Methylococcaceae (the true methanotrophs), Methylophilaceae (the nonmethanotrophic methylotrophs), Burkholderiales, and Bacteroidetes. Additional functional guilds were detected in multiple samples, such as members of Opitutae, as well as the predatory species, suggesting additional complexity for methane-oxidizing communities. Metatranscriptomic analysis suggested simultaneous expression of the two alternative types of methanol dehydrogenases in both Methylococcaceae and Methylophilaceae, while high expression of the oxidative/nitrosative stress response genes suggested competition for dioxygen among the community members. The transcriptomic analysis further suggested that Burkholderiales likely feed on acetate that is produced by Methylococcaceae under hypoxic conditions, while Bacteroidetes likely feed on biopolymers produced by both Methylococcaceae and Methylophilaceae.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Yield From Iowa's First Commercial Miscanthus Fields: Implications of Spatial Variability for Productivity and Sustainability Beyond Research Plots

The cultivation of sterile giant miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus, M × g) for bioenergy and bioproducts has expanded into grain-cropped land in the United States (US) as local markets developed for this high-yielding perennial grass (10–30 Mg DM ha −1 ). However, the magnitude of spatial and temporal variability in yield within US Corn Belt fields, along with impacts on economic return and sustainable land management, is poorly understood. This study established a diagnostic model relating remote sensing-derived vegetation indices to ground truth data from 105 hand-harvested stem biomass samples, which were strategically selected to represent the full range of vegetation index observations. The high-resolution satellite-sensed vegetation indices captured > 90% of the yield variation measured within fields. This model was then used to predict yield variability and assess economic performance across four of the first commercial M × g fields in the Corn Belt state of Iowa, US. Significant spatial variability in biomass dry matter (DM) yields (9.3–18.1 Mg DM ha −1 ) and net profits ($\$$83 to $\$$1211.5 ha −1 ) was observed. All fields were profitable in all site-years. When low profit occurred, it was explained by limited management experience of the crop in Iowa. The breakeven yield at a selling price of $\$$130 Mg −1 varied from 9.0–12.1 Mg ha −1 at 15% moisture content (7.6–10.3 Mg DM ha −1 ). Breakeven prices ranged from $\$$73 to $\$$122.4 Mg −1 , matching ranges used in the Department of Energy Billion Ton Report (US Department of Energy, 2023). Notably, M × g yield and profits were commensurate with grain crops particularly with favorable precipitation. This study provides insight on the M × g management “learning curve”, performance on marginal land and in drought conditions, and demonstrates that addressing yield gaps, reducing costs, and implementing precision agriculture strategies can enhance profitability. These findings emphasize the value of remote sensing technologies in guiding sustainable and competitive commercial-scale M × g production.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Fokker–Planck approach to a moment closure for mixing in variable-density turbulence

We develop a theory for the cascade mixing terms in a moment closure approach to binary active scalar mixing in variable-density turbulence. To address the variable-density complications we apply, as a principle and constraint, the conservation of the probability density function (PDF) through a Fokker–Planck equation with bounded sample space whose attractor is the beta PDF with skewness. Mixing is related to a single-point PDF as a realisability principle to provide mathematically rigorous expressions for the small scale statistics in terms of largescale moments. The problem of the unknown small-scale mixing is replaced with the determination of the drift and diffusion terms of a Fokker–Planck equation in a beta-PDF-convergent stochastic process. We find that realisability of a beta-convergent process requires the mixing time-scale ratio, taken as a constant in passive scalar mixing, to be a function of the mean mass fraction, mean fluid density, the Atwood number, the density-volume correlation and moments of the density field. We develop and compare the new model with direct numerical simulations data of non-stationary homogeneous variable-density turbulence.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Measurement of elastic precursor decay in pre-heated aluminum films under ultra-fast laser generated shocks

Here, this article presents results from laser-driven shock compression experiments performed on pre-heated pure aluminum films at temperatures ranging from 23 to 400 °C. The samples were vapor deposited on the surface of a 500 μm thick sapphire substrate and mounted onto a custom holder with an integrated ring-heater to enable variable initial temperature conditions. A chirped pulse amplified laser was used to generate a pulse for both shocking the films and for probing the free surface velocity using Ultrafast Dynamic Ellipsometry. The particle velocity traces measured at the free surface clearly show elastic and plastic wave separation, which was used to estimate the decay of the elastic precursor amplitude over propagation distances ranging from 0.278 to 4.595 μm. Elastic precursors (which also correspond to dynamic material strength under uniaxial strain) of increasing amplitudes were observed with increasing initial sample temperatures for all propagation distances, which is consistent with expectations for aluminum in a deformation regime where phonon drag limits the mobility of dislocations. The experimental results show peak elastic amplitudes corresponding to axial stresses of over 7.5 GPa; estimates for plastic strain-rates in the samples are of the order 10 9 /s. The measured elastic amplitudes at the micron length scales are compared with those at the millimeter length-scales using a two-parameter model and used to correlate the rate sensitivity of the dynamic strength at strain-rates ranging from 10 3 to 10 9 /s and elevated temperature conditions. The overall trend, as inferred from the experimental data, indicates that the temperature-strengthening effect decreases with increasing plastic strain-rates.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Sensitivity of Turbine-Height Wind Speeds to Parameters in Planetary Boundary-Layer and Surface-Layer Schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

We evaluate the sensitivity of simulated turbine-height winds to 26 parameters applied in a planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme and a surface layer scheme of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over an area of complex terrain during the Columbia Basin Wind Energy Study. An efficient sampling algorithm and a generalized linear model are used to explore the multiple-dimensional parameter space and quantify the parametric sensitivity of modeled turbine-height winds. The results indicate that most of the variability in the ensemble simulations is contributed by parameters related to the dissipation of the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), Prandtl number, turbulence length scales, surface roughness, and the von Kármán constant. The relative contributions of individual parameters are found to be dependent on both the terrain slope and atmospheric stability. The parameter associated with the TKE dissipation rate is found to be the most important one, and a larger dissipation rate can produce larger hub-height winds. A larger Prandtl number results in weaker nighttime winds. Increasing surface roughness reduces the frequencies of both extremely weak and strong winds, implying a reduction in the variability of the wind speed. All of the above parameters can significantly affect the vertical profiles of wind speed, the altitude of the low-level jet and the magnitude of the wind shear strength. The wind direction is found to be modulated by the same subset of influential parameters. Remainder of abstract is in attachment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Towards an improved understanding of the influence of subpixel vegetation structure on pixel-level spectra: a simulation approach

The planned NASA Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI) mission, equipped with an imaging spectrometer that has the capability of monitoring ecosystems globally, will provide an unprecedented opportunity to address scientific challenges related to ecosystem function and change. However, uncertainty remains around the impact of subpixel vegetation structure, in combination with the point spread function, on pixel-level imaging spectroscopy data. We estimated structural parameters, e.g., leaf area index (LAI), canopy cover, and tree location, from HyspIRI spectral data, with the goal of assessing how subpixel variation in these parameters impact pixel-level imaging spectroscopy data. The fine-scale variability of real vegetation structure makes this a challenging endeavor. Therefore, we utilized a simulation-based approach to counter the time-consuming and often destructive sampling needs of vegetation structural analysis and to simultaneously generate synthetic HyspIRI data pre-launch. Three virtual scenes were constructed, corresponding to the actual vegetation structure in the National Ecological Observatory Network’s (NEON) Pacific Southwest Domain (Fresno, CA). These included an oak savanna, a dense coniferous forest, and a conifer-manzanita-mixed forest. Simulated spectroscopy data for these scenes were then generated using the Digital Imaging and Remote Sensing Image Generation (DIRSIG) model. Simulations first were used to verify the physical model, virtual scene geometrical information, and simulation parameters. This was followed by simulations of HyspIRI data, where within-pixel structural variability was introduced, e.g., by iteratively changing per-pixel canopy cover and tree placement, tree clustering, leaf area index (LAI), etc., between simulation runs for the virtual scenes. Finally, narrow-band vegetation indices (VIs) were extracted from the data in an attempt to describe the variability of the subpixel structural parameters; this was done in order to assess VI robustness to changes in structural “levels”, as well as placement of trees/canopies within the instrument’s instantaneous field-of-view (IFOV). Our ultimate goal is not only to better understand how such subpixel variability influence imaging spectroscopy outputs, but also to better estimate vegetation structural parameters using spectra. We constructed regression models for LAI (R2 = 0.92) and canopy cover (R2 = 0.97) with narrow-band VIs via this simulation approach. Our models ultimately are intended to improve the HyspIRI mission’s ability to monitor global vegetation structure.

Van Aardt, Jan↗
DOE OSTI2012

Boulder damage symposium annual thin film laser damage competition

Optical instruments and laser systems are often fluence-limited by multilayer thin films deposited on the optical surfaces. When comparing publications within the laser damage literature, there can be confusing and conflicting laser damage results. This is due to differences in testing protocols between research groups studying very different applications. In this series of competitions, samples from multiple vendors are compared under identical testing parameters and a single testing service. Unlike a typical study where a hypothesis is tested within a well-controlled experiment with isolated variables, this competition isolates the laser damage testing variables so that trends can be observed between different deposition processes, coating materials, cleaning techniques, and multiple coating suppliers. The resulting series of damage competitions has also been designed to observe general trends of damage morphologies and mechanisms over a wide range of coating types (high reflector and antireflector), wavelengths (193 to 1064 nm), and pulse lengths (180 fs to 13 ns). A double blind test assured sample and submitter anonymity were used in each of the competitions so only a summary of the deposition process, coating materials, layer count and spectral results are presented. Laser resistance was strongly affected by substrate cleaning, coating deposition method, and coating material selection whereas layer count and spectral properties had minimal impact.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

A Histogram-Free Multicanonical Monte Carlo Algorithm for the Basis Expansion of Density of States

We report a new multicanonical Monte Carlo (MC) algorithm to obtain the density of states (DOS) for physical systems with continuous state variables in statistical mechanics. Our algorithm is able to obtain an analytical form for the DOS expressed in a chosen basis set, instead of a numerical array of finite resolution as in previous variants of this class of MC methods such as the multicanonical (MUCA) sampling and Wang-Landau (WL) sampling. This is enabled by storing the visited states directly in a data set and avoiding the explicit collection of a histogram. This practice also has the advantage of avoiding undesirable artificial errors caused by the discretization and binning of continuous state variables. Our results show that this scheme is capable of obtaining converged results with a much reduced number of Monte Carlo steps, leading to a significant speedup over existing algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

A histogram-free multicanonical Monte Carlo algorithm for the construction of analytical density of states

We report a new multicanonical Monte Carlo (MC) algorithm to obtain the density of states (DOS) for physical systems with continuous state variables in statistical mechanics. Our algorithm is able to obtain an analytical form for the DOS expressed in a chosen basis set, instead of a numerical array of finite resolution as in previous variants of this class of MC methods such as the multicanonical (MUCA) sampling and Wang-Landau (WL) sampling. This is enabled by storing the visited states directly in a data set and avoiding the explicit collection of a histogram. This practice also has the advantage of avoiding undesirable artificial errors caused by the discretization and binning of continuous state variables. Our results show that this scheme is capable of obtaining converged results with a much reduced number of Monte Carlo steps, leading to a significant speedup over existing algorithms.

Li, Ying Wai↗
DOE OSTI2018

Intraday Water Quality Patterns in East Fork Poplar Creek with an Emphasis on Mercury and Monomethylmercury

We conducted a diel sampling campaign at three locations along the Hg contaminated East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee to (i) quantify diel patterns of particulate and dissolved mercury (Hg) and monomethylmercury (MMHg) (Hg D , Hg P , MMHg D , and MMHg P , respectively) and associated water quality parameters along a longitudinal gradient of EFPC during the summer season, (ii) determine if diel patterns in Hg and/or MMHg are related to the daily photocycle or any other short term cycle, such as wastewater treatment plant discharge, (iii) determine if diel variability in turbidity and dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition correspond to particulate Hg P or MMHg P and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) or dissolved Hg D or MMHg D . Samples were collected every two hours for a 30 hour period. The farthest upstream site was located at the boundary of Y-12 and the City of Oak Ridge (EFK 23.4) while two additional sites were located 7.2 kilometers (Wiltshire Drive, EFK 16.2) and 18 kilometers (Horizon Center, EFK 5.4) downstream of EFK 23.4). Hg P and MMHg P concentrations increased overnight at EFK 16.2 and EFK 5.4 coincident with increases in turbidity and total suspended solids (TSS). These overnight increases were likely due to diel changes in the activity of macrobiota (re)suspending contaminated sediments in the creek. Both Hg D and MMHg D were higher during the day at EFK 23.4 and EFK 5.4. The underlying causes for the patterns in Hg D and MMHg D are less clear but correspond with similar patterns in DOC concentration and DOM composition. Photochemical reactions may also play a role in these Hg D , MMHg D , DOC, and DOM patterns. Total loads of both Hg and MMHg increased with downstream distance. The greatest increase in loading occurred in the reach from EFK 23.4 to EFK 16.2 which encompasses areas where the Historic Release Deposits (HRD) have been identified. These results demonstrate that diffuse legacy sources of Hg, outside of Y-12, contribute Hg load to EFPC. Both total and dissolved MMHg loads increased approximately linearly with downstream distance. Particluate MMHg loading increased in the upper reach but did not change over the lower reach. The HRD may contribute to MMHg P load in the upper reach but most of the total, dissolved, and particulate MMHg appears to originate from in-stream production. Due to intraday patterns in concentration and flow rate, loading estimates are best derived from diel sampling campaigns. Intraday patterns in Hg and MMHg concentration and speciation have implications with respect to biotic exposure. Greater biotic activity and feeding during times of higher concentration would correspond to greater exposure than estimated from daily or longer-term averages. Both Hg and MMHg responded rapidly to processes governing their concentration. This latter point is encouraging from the perspective of site remediation as it suggests that MMHg concentrations and flux in EFPC would respond rapidly to appropriate remedial actions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

Adaptive stratified importance sampling: hybridization of extrapolation and importance sampling Monte Carlo methods for estimation of wind turbine extreme loads

Wind turbine extreme load estimation is especially difficult because turbulent inflow drives nonlinear turbine physics and control strategies; thus there can be huge differences in turbine response to essentially equivalent environmental conditions. The two main current approaches, extrapolation and Monte Carlo sampling, are both unsatisfying: extrapolation-based methods are dangerous because by definition they make predictions outside the range of available data, but Monte Carlo methods converge too slowly to routinely reach the desired 50-year return period estimates. Thus a search for a better method is warranted. We introduce an adaptive stratified importance sampling approach that allows for treating the choice of environmental conditions at which to run simulations as a stochastic optimization problem that minimizes the variance of unbiased estimates of extreme loads. Furthermore, the framework, built on the traditional bin-based approach used in extrapolation methods, provides a close connection between sampling and extrapolation, and thus allows the solution of the stochastic optimization (i.e., the optimal distribution of simulations in different wind speed bins) to guide and recalibrate the extrapolation. Results show that indeed this is a promising approach, as the variance of both the Monte Carlo and extrapolation estimates are reduced quickly by the adaptive procedure. We conclude, however, that due to the extreme response variability in turbine loads to the same environmental conditions, our method and any similar method quickly reaches its fundamental limits, and that therefore our efforts going forward are best spent elucidating the underlying causes of the response variability.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microbial Community Changes across Time and Space in a Constructed Wetland

Constructed wetlands are artificial ecosystems designed to replicate natural wetland processes. Microbial communities play a pivotal role in cycling essential elements, particularly sulfur, which is crucial for trace metal fixation and remobilization in these ecosystems. By their response to their environment, microbial communities act as biological indicators of the wetland performance. To address knowledge gaps pertinent to the changes in trace metal bioavailability in relation to microbial activities in the H-02 constructed wetland, we performed this study to investigate temporal and spatial variations in microbial communities by using molecular biology tools. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction and next generation sequencing techniques were employed to analyze archaeal and bacterial groups associated with sulfur and methane cycling. Alpha diversity indices were used to assess species richness, evenness, and dominance. Results indicated high gene abundance of Desulfuromonas (5.37 × 10 6 g.cell –1 ), methane oxidizing bacteria (6.92 × 10 6 g.cell –1 ), and methanogenic microorganisms (3.02 × 10 5 g.cell –1 ) during cool months. Warm months were marked by sulfate reducing bacteria dominance (3.31 × 10 6 g.cell –1 ), potentially due to competitive interactions and environmental conditions, higher temperatures, and lower redox potential. Spatial variability among microbial groups was insignificant, but trends in gene abundance indicated complex factors influencing these groups. Next generation sequencing data demonstrated Firmicutes as the most abundant phylum with over 50% regardless of the season or sampling location. Cool months exhibited higher alpha diversity than warm months. Overall, this study showed that seasonal changes significantly impacted the microbial communities in the H-02 constructed wetland that are associated with the sulfur cycle and eventually trace metal biogeochemistry, revealing two distinct mechanisms of the sulfur cycle between the two main seasons, whereas spatial variability effects were not conclusive.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Explaining and predicting human behavior and social dynamics in simulated virtual worlds: reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of causal discovery methods

Ground Truth program was designed to evaluate social science modeling approaches using simulation test beds with ground truth intentionally and systematically embedded to understand and model complex Human Domain systems and their dynamics Lazer et al. (Science 369:1060–1062, 2020). Our multidisciplinary team of data scientists, statisticians, experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and visual analytics had a unique role on the program to investigate accuracy, reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal structure learning approaches applied to fully observed and sampled simulated data across virtual worlds. In addition, we analyzed the feasibility of using machine learning models to predict future social behavior with and without causal knowledge explicitly embedded. In this paper, we first present our causal modeling approach to discover the causal structure of four virtual worlds produced by the simulation teams—Urban Life, Financial Governance, Disaster and Geopolitical Conflict. Our approach adapts the state-of-the-art causal discovery (including ensemble models), machine learning, data analytics, and visualization techniques to allow a human-machine team to reverse-engineer the true causal relations from sampled and fully observed data. We next present our reproducibility analysis of two research methods team’s performance using a range of causal discovery models applied to both sampled and fully observed data, and analyze their effectiveness and limitations. We further investigate the generalizability and robustness to sampling of the SOTA causal discovery approaches on additional simulated datasets with known ground truth. Our results reveal the limitations of existing causal modeling approaches when applied to large-scale, noisy, high-dimensional data with unobserved variables and unknown relationships between them. We show that the SOTA causal models explored in our experiments are not designed to take advantage from vasts amounts of data and have difficulty recovering ground truth when latent confounders are present; they do not generalize well across simulation scenarios and are not robust to sampling; they are vulnerable to data and modeling assumptions, and therefore, the results are hard to reproduce. Finally, when we outline lessons learned and provide recommendations to improve models for causal discovery and prediction of human social behavior from observational data, we highlight the importance of learning data to knowledge representations or transformations to improve causal discovery and describe the benefit of causal feature selection for predictive and prescriptive modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗